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Insilico Terminal Podcast Episode 12 - Avgreplyguy
73 Plays15 days ago
In this episode, we dive into the journey of a trader who entered crypto in 2016, lived through the 2017 alt mania, round-tripped early bags, and returned to the 2021 cycle far better prepared. He breaks down his current long-term swing approach, how he thinks about narratives, and why the Solana trade stood out. We talk tech vs narratives, tokenomics realism, and why Hyperliquid is one of the few “tech that actually matters.” The conversation explores learning to sell, avoiding CT sentiment traps, timeline curation, balancing work with trading, on-chain experiments, missed airdrops, public sales, and views on the current cycle - from majors vs alts to the unfolding Trump meta.
00:00 Intro, getting into crypto in 2016, ETH-pilled early, 2017 alt mania
05:07 Round-tripping early bags, learning to sell, RuneScape gold to BTC, entering 2021 better prepared
08:00 Trading style today - long-term swings, narratives, Solana trade breakdown
12:46 Tech vs narratives, tokenomics realism, Hyperliquid as rare “tech that matters,” losing faith in plasma/VC chains
15:38 Biggest lessons - learning to sell, CT sentiment traps, subreddits, bagholder echo chambers
20:10 Life on CT - reply guy origins, filtering grifters, timeline curation
27:16 Work vs trading - why he keeps a job, risk management, lifestyle balance,
34:53 On-chain attempts, meme seasons, airdrop misses (HL/Kaito), public sales, Monad/MegaETH thoughts
43:04 Market outlook - cycle views, late-stage concerns, majors vs alts, Trump meta
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Transcript
Introduction and Guest Welcome
00:00:13
Speaker
Welcome everyone to a new episode of the Insilico Terminal podcast. My guest today is Average Reply Guy and I would like to ask you to tell us a bit the about yourself. Who are you? What do you do? How do you introduce he yourself?
Average Reply Guy's Twitter Journey
00:00:32
Speaker
Yeah, sure. So yeah, average reply guy, I guess is my name now, or the one name I gave myself. Been on this, like on CT, on this Twitter account for like four years now, I think. But before that I had like an all another crypto, like ah a Twitter account that wasn't for crypto Twitter, but just for other stuff. And I already followed some of the big guys like you know like Kobe and guys like that. And then at one point I decided to like 2021 when stuff started going crazy again, I figured, you know what, might as well make a Twitter account for for crypto Twitter because I started to understand it. That's like a thing. You know, there's yeah's like a Twitter just just for crypto. So then I made my account.
00:01:08
Speaker
Um, and I think I just called myself average crypto guy. Cause I thought had, I don't know. I don't know why i did that, but that's, that's what I called myself. and then I just started reply guy, you know, like everyone, cause you can, you can do two things when you make a Twitter account. And one of them is just tweeting into the void and the other is just reply guy, you know, trying to get some, uh, make some friends, you know, just kind of shit pose. That's kind of what I've been doing for the past, like four years, all the while trading a bit of crypto here and there. Um, so yeah.
Early Crypto Experiences
00:01:37
Speaker
How did you get into crypto? What attracted you to it in the first place? I got into crypto like 2016. two thousand sixteen And that was because in school I actually had a subject that talked about Bitcoin for a bit. So that was then my entire class kind of got into it. And there was this guy who was on his laptop mining Ethereum next to me at one point. So I asked him like, what are you doing?
00:01:58
Speaker
And he explained and he was like so very anti Bitcoin and pro Ethereum. So he kind of like ETH built me from the start. So all I did then was like, i bought like, I was a very poor student, which by the way is why I'm still poor this day because I bought like my first ETH, I bought it like $12 or something, but it was like 30 bucks worth, because I was super poor. And I ended up buying a bit more, buying a bit more. And then my entire class, like this was during like the 2017, like, you know, when that's the big altcoin bull run started. So we were all like- University or high school?
00:02:30
Speaker
No, this was college. So this was, I did the university after this was in college and ended up like aping a bunch of shit coins with all my classmates on Bittrex, you know, that's that's kind of how I got started. and we would all like get sucked into pump and dump groups and you know the whole the whole experience and that's kind of how I got started yeah do you still are you still in contact with some of those people are they still in crypto do you know um I used to have a like an old group chat, but that's been dead for a few years. I think there's one or two guys that also have a Twitter account and follow me, I think.
00:03:05
Speaker
And I sometimes see them pop up, at least one of them. So I think one of them is still in crypto. The rest of them, and a lot of them like kind of got cleared out by the but the pump and dump groups. They had a proper crash out in the chat. I'm done with this. I lost my money you know because this pump was a scam. And then they left and never returned. As it happens to most normies, I guess. Yeah, exactly. exactly So how did you get started with with trading more seriously?
00:03:31
Speaker
um Well, I was mostly at the start just kind of because in 2017, all I did was buy. like I didn't touch the sell button until like 2021 or something. So all I did was just buy stuff. And um i did i guess I guess I swapped between coins a little bit here and there.
00:03:48
Speaker
um But mostly it was just buy and hold, right? Like everyone gets started. like The hold meme was such a big big thing back then. It's like just buy, never sell. This stuff is going to go. And I got sucked into all the like the tech stuff. like like so I've talked about this before, like end shares, you know, like NIO or whatever it is now. yeah right I fully believe that was going to be the next Chinese Ethereum, stuff like that. So I would buy a whole bunch of that, make like pretty good returns, especially for me at the time, and i just hold it all the way down to zero.
00:04:18
Speaker
And then 2020 rolled around and 2019, you know, that went through the bear market. I saw my portfolio just go to close to zero, like, and I just realized, okay, if you want to win here, you you need to sometimes take some chips off the table because otherwise all you're doing is just you know sitting in the roller coaster, that image where it just goes into the Z coaster or whatever it's called. So I started selling a little bit here and there and started a bit more active with like mostly just swing positions, you know trying to trade a little bit. And most importantly, started taking some profits. And also what really helped me is that
00:04:54
Speaker
Most of my cost basis is just from selling game currency, like from RuneScape. used to play with a lot of RuneScape and I would just sell the the RuneScape gold and I would swap like ah most of the traders, like they would get banned off of PayPal and they started using crypto. So yeah I would actually sell RuneScape gold for Bitcoin and for Ethereum and
Lessons from RuneScape and Trading Approach
00:05:13
Speaker
stuff. And that's, I did that a bunch in 2019 and then kind of accidentally bought the bottom of that. So, cause I was at like three, three or 4k or something. So that gave me a nice head start in into 2021. And you know that's when I also got active on Twitter, started following some people here and there, started experimenting a little bit more and just kind of grew from there. you know
00:05:31
Speaker
Does ah playing RuneScape have any positive impact on your trading today? I've never played it, but I think many many people have on CT. Yeah, I think it does because it gives you it gives you a basic understanding of markets because RuneScape has had like, this game has been out for 25 years or something, but it has a massive like in-game economy.
00:05:49
Speaker
And know they they actually have like pump and dump, they used to have pump and dump clans, I used to call it. Like they would buy up a bunch of this like obscure item and pump the prices up and like advertise everywhere. And like there were a couple of things that were really similar to all other markets. i I think so. And it also really helps you be very careful with potential scams and stuff because in Runescape, everyone's always trying to hack you and scam you for your items. And Yeah, you really learn quickly. You get scanned at a very young age, so you learn to really not trust anyone. And I think that's also like in something like crypto is super helpful. I think people kind of underestimate that, but you you learn about like human nature and stuff as well as as a bit about markets. I think it it it has helped me and everyone. there's ah There's quite a few people on CT as well. Like ah there's one trader, I think his name is spicy. I think I don't know you if you know him.
00:06:39
Speaker
He posts a lot of like educational content. That's someone who I think I used to sell gold to. or or i try I used to have a Discord message from him yeah when I was trying to sell him gold. So I know he used to do a lot of like ah gambling in RuneScape. There used to be a way to do like plus EV gambling in RuneScape. So I know a lot of those guys have kind of just rolled over into crypto trading as well because I see that on the timeline quite a few times. So that's really funny. So that's, yeah, I think that definitely, it definitely helped me. Yeah, that's pretty funny, actually. i feel like if you if you look at people today, um us i'm I'm just like including you in this because I guess it's the same for you. But if you've been on the internet for like at a at a young age and for a long time, it's almost a very different environment than if like normies come nowadays and get into crypto and people are just like,
00:07:26
Speaker
weren't never on like forums and shit like that and just came through social media through Instagram and whatever. They they don't have that experience of being scammed before. yeah It's like way, way easier for them to just like come in and fall for all the the stupid tricks.
00:07:40
Speaker
yeah exactly they're the other one that other ones getting one shot by all like that this is why all the those grifter accounts are so big on this uh on ct like you have a few of those guys are like two three hundred thousand followers and all that post is like this like a rainbow slop chart of bitcoin going to three million but then all those guys they they buy into that you know and they buy all of their grifts and their scam coins launches and stuff like it's really like you can definitely explain it's just inexperienced people like and yeah they're the ones getting absolutely erect by these grifters. I think, yeah, that's a good point.
00:08:12
Speaker
So what what does your trading look like nowadays? It's still kind of the same. Like I use my my style and or I guess the thing that I've had success with the most is just like very long term swing trading for the most part. So like it's close to investing, but, you know, a little bit less, like it's it's still a little bit more active than just investing. But I try mostly to train to trade narratives a bit. so And that's really changed quite a lot in the last, I think, year, year and a half. Like, the rotations have just become so much faster that it doesn't really fit that way of trading much anymore. Like, I used to be kind of, like, I used to be decent at spotting, like,
00:08:51
Speaker
opportunities over longer times like for example the solana trade i did quite well in i bought a bunch at like i think 19 20 and i held that all the way up till you know i sold gradually near the top a little bit further from the top but that was quite kind of a good trade for me yeah but i think those types of trades haven't really rolled around much anymore i guess recently you had z cash which was pretty ridiculous but that as well that's just gone so much faster than than something like solana did and Yeah, I kind of noticed that that it's kind of changed that way. And, you know, like Plasma was a bit of a bit of an oopsie for me, but i was I did it on like relatively small size as well, not like with Solana. Solana, I went, I think, yeah, um ah most ah most of my portfolio I put in at that stage because I was like, yeah, this is a really good, you know, risk reward spot. And I don't think those are...
00:09:39
Speaker
Yeah, I guess this stage in the cycle or just the way the market is right now, that that doesn't really happen too much anymore. um But that's really been my style of trading. It's just buying and holding for a little bit longer time. Like I've tried lower timeframe trading as well, but I just noticed that I'm just not as good at it and I haven't had to practice and I don't have the experience. And I think like my trade management and stuff, it's just not really used to that and I think I i make a lot of mistakes so i I don't really do that and whenever I do it's like small size small risk stuff like that like I'm i' quite you know I think managing your risk is quite important so yeah mostly longer term swing stuff I guess is how I would describe it so you mostly look at like narratives and sentiment on Twitter what is popular and just like go from that
00:10:25
Speaker
Yeah, I try to kind of see what's like know what's kind of mispriced, like generally speaking. you know like Something like Solana, was i I kind of saw at the time, it's like, okay, this this is really just because of the FTX fallout, right? I think Solana was, and still I guess still is, just a very user-friendly chain, and it it had a lot of potential to attract a lot of users. And I thought, yeah, okay, this is just quite clearly super oversold simply because of what happened with FTX. And I think this is a good... spot to to to just yeah just buy some and just hold for quite a while and that worked out quite well so kind of yeah try to look at stuff like that when the market allows for it and when the market doesn't allow for it right like like right now I like to just you know hold stuff like BTC and and sometimes ETH and you know sit in dollars for a bit try not to to FOMO into too many things and if I do try to keep the size a bit small keep it manageable you know
00:11:18
Speaker
I feel like back then the Solana trade was like extremely obvious. Maybe not from like the the dollar standpoint, but like for for me it was very obvious that it's if there is a next cycle, when the next cycle starts, that Solana will be a big thing in it because it like just had the the fastness and technology aspect and whatever and FTX drop. But like I didn't have any amount money back then, so I couldn't really buy anything. But that was like very very good trade, I think, that many many people caught.
00:11:45
Speaker
Yeah, I think so. And as well, if you've lived through like ah an ETH DeFi season or or call it what let you what you want, if you you saw how the fees like skyrocketed, you just know, like at that this is not something that's ah massive amount, like no matter how many how much the.eths argue otherwise, it's not a chain that a lot of people are going to use for things like this. And Solana just was. and yeah agree with you. I think that was a lot of people caught that trade and I think it was quite obvious and it was a really good chance to sort of yeah get a liquid. Like what was it? If you really caught the bottom, like the 20x, 30x, something like that. Yeah, that was a pretty good opportunity.
00:12:24
Speaker
Are you still technology pill nowadays, like back then or? No, like not not really. no No, I think I mostly just, yeah, as I said, mostly about the narrative is more important than the tech, I think. And especially in in crypto, I think like everything is so backwards in here. like The stuff that bumps, you know like especially since meme season, I guess, like that all went out of the window. like if you see how stuff with solid tech, I guess on paper performs like it doesn't matter as long as if the tokenomics are absolute trash, then it doesn't matter how great the technology is.
00:12:59
Speaker
And if people don't care about the token, then it's never going to perform well. you know i'm I'm in this market to just make money. That stuff too about tech and about the next Ethereum and this and that, like you you quickly learn to kind of let that go, I think. So no i really I don't care too much anymore. Stuff if like Hyperliquid, for example, does interest me quite a bit because it's quite obvious that that's you know um from a tech technical point of view, that's just you know a very good project and a good thing to have in crypto. So I can definitely appreciate that.
00:13:29
Speaker
But the more abstract stuff is just, nah, I just don't even read into it anymore. you know Just look at tokenomics, look at is is there you know a reason for this token to go up in price? If so, you know trade it. If not, it doesn't matter.
00:13:43
Speaker
I guess I got it gone a bit pessimistic on that on that point, I guess. Yeah, I definitely feel you. I also used to be in it for the tech. but I joined in like 2017 and then I was really into into Bitcoin, Ethereum and everything. And even in 2021, it was like when DeFi was there, it was like, yo, this is going to do stuff. This is going to change the world. like kind of I kind of fell for the narrative that was around back then of like ETH is like better than Bitcoin and then yeah do whatever. And then 2022 came around and you just realized like, yeah, this is probably not happening. Yeah. Exactly. It's it's stuff you really learn by you know by experiencing it, by by grabbing a bit of drawdown, even though the tech is so great. yeah you You start to realize like ah it's it's really not as important as how many bags of this stuff the VCs have and how much of it is unlocking during bad market conditions. you know the The tech's not going to win over that. No, not really, unfortunately. But at at least that's why why it's nice to have stuff like Happilyquid where it's a bit more
00:14:44
Speaker
where there's like something to it and it's like an actual product, whether it's like perfect or whatever, it doesn't really matter, but at least there's like some innovation going on there and like some, people that are trying to to to do stuff and not just grifts.
00:14:56
Speaker
but Yeah. And it's easy to sort of, as a market participant, see the value of it and experience the value of it. And I think that's why, you know, that kind of also jumped out at me because you can really like the user experience is something that anyone can really get involved with, you know, something like plasma. I can't tell you what plasma does apart from Godin and price. So it's, yeah.
00:15:16
Speaker
I'm not sure anyone can. It's like a stable coin chain or whatever. I don't really know why. Stable coins. Yeah, I don't know, man. Trillions and yeah. I'm just happy to get close at the right time. Yeah, I'm happy for you, man.
00:15:35
Speaker
have Have you ever, like, um what have some been some of your like biggest learnings since you've been in crypto for quite ah quite a while, of almost nine years at this point? but What ah have been some of your like mistakes and some of the things that you that you learned from?
00:15:49
Speaker
some traumatic events or something like that. Yeah, mostly like the importance of learning how to sell. Because yeah as as we just discussed, like it's at the start, it's really easy to fall for the whole, oh, this is world-changing tech, and everyone talks about very long timeframes. And it's like, oh, this is going to go to X and and Y price.
00:16:07
Speaker
um and I think after you've experienced your first like real, like an amount of money that's like meaningful to you and you've round tripped that, like you've seen that money or that, that imaginary number sort of disappear in front of your own eyes is when you start realizing how important it is to to learn to sell. And it's really hard to sell in crypto, especially if you um are like very active on CT because as we all know, CT is like a very,
00:16:35
Speaker
extreme form of whatever the current ah market condition is. right so if if If it's really bullish and everyone's really, really bullish and if it's really bearish and everyone's acting like the world's going to yeah disappear.
00:16:49
Speaker
and if it's It can be easy to get sucked into whatever the the current sentiment is on CT, I found. and i was definite I fell victim to that as well. And and before CT, it was like, i don't know, I was active on a bunch of forums or or like subreddits or whatever. And the same because it's just a whole bunch of backholders sort of reinforcing beliefs. And it's really easy to get stuck into that mindset. And it becomes really hard to sell because all you think about is, oh, but what if it goes higher?
00:17:15
Speaker
um And the truth is, once you start selling and once you start like you know taking some money out instead of putting it in, then you start realizing, oh, if it goes up, then I'll just have more to sell. It it doesn't have to be black and white. you don't have to sell everything. you You can sell a bit and then it's not going to hurt you. Selling 10% of your bag and then it doubles again, you're not going to think about, oh, man, that 10% would have been No, you're looking at what you have left. And if it goes down, you're happy like, oh, at least I took this amount of money out. So it's really...
00:17:44
Speaker
I think yeah so learning how to sell is very important, especially on the way up. And yeah just in general, I think just knowing how and when to take profit profits and really you know yeah focusing on that and and and also just kind of being aware of that you know when so stuff is is constantly going up. you know we We haven't had much of that recently, but if you remember still, like when stuff goes up a lot, it's really you know important that you just you know smash the sell button every now and again
The Art of Selling Crypto
00:18:13
Speaker
and don't look back. you know always be selling yeah yeah exactly exactly the subreddits are actually one of the worst uh places ever like i remember before before i only made my account in 2021 before that i used like the normal cryptocurrency subreddit which is already quite bad yeah like a couple of the others but if you go into like the individual communities for coins that's like
00:18:35
Speaker
like Especially if you're... I mean, i guess we are like a little bit sophisticated coming from CT or whatever, but even like regular CT participants are a bit more sophisticated, I would say, than the people in those subreddits because they they are really like...
00:18:49
Speaker
it's It's just backholder code. Yeah. Oh, dude. One of my hobbies in 2022 used to be going to like, um, what was it the I think the the Shiba Inu or whatever that coin was and go to that subreddit. Dude, it was so funny. Like on the days that it went down like double digits, the posts on there were so funny. It was just backholders telling each other, don't sell hold. This is just Malcolm manipulation and you know, all that stuff. Yeah. It was so, so funny. Yeah.
00:19:16
Speaker
It's very insane. Like I really realized like when I when i joined Crypto Twitter, um because before that, because I was so much into the tech, I never really thought about the financial aspects that much like trading and how markets move and whatever. I didn't know anything about that.
00:19:31
Speaker
And on the subreddit, you know, they they regularly make posts about like, I don't even know what, like some whale woke up or whatever or something happened. This is the reason that Bitcoin dropped 10% this week or whatever. yeah ah Random narratives all the time for why price moves the way it does. And only when I joined Twitter and saw that there's people trading and learn a bit through that and they explained a bit more how how market dynamics actually work. Then I realized like, yo, all of this stuff that people talk about or think moves the market has like nothing to do with it at all.
00:20:05
Speaker
No, exactly. People are so desperate to know reasons behind, especially when it goes down, of course. Like they don't care how it goes up. Once it starts going down, it's like, dude, who's selling what's happening? And I always find something to blame. Yeah.
00:20:20
Speaker
So you've been on on CT for four years now. Have you have you started posting immediately when you made your account? Like reply guying? I think I was just mostly reply guying. I think when I first made the the account, I was just i don't know i was bull posting some random shit going. It's like, let's let's see if I can get some followers by posting absolute trash. kind of you know And I gave that up quite quickly and I started just...
00:20:41
Speaker
yeah, but following people and then realizing that they're either a grifter or they have no idea what they'm talking and what they're talking about, you know, and then unfollowing them and then just kind of, I yeah i kept my follow, I still only follow like 400 and something people because i' I'm quite like peculiar about who who I want to interact with and who I don't want to interact with. There's such a large percentage of CT accounts that are just, yeah, they have some sort of, either in the past I did something shady and then, you know, they just kind of pretend that I didn't and everyone just kind of forgets about it. And I try to really kind of only follow the right. And I also like to keep my my timeline clean because I also really stay away from like the the For You page and stuff because there's so much absolute trash on there. So yeah, I kind of just kind of built that out from the start, just reply guy-ing a bunch of guys and
00:21:28
Speaker
you know or like marusha and delta and all those guys you should just get into the reply and i really try to make an effort to not be because of course reply guy has kind of a bad name right like a reply guy is just someone annoying who's always trying to start arguments with you in your comments like i feel like nowadays it's maybe a bit different because maybe it's a bit more appreciated because the replies are just full of like bots and kaito farmers and stuff like that and the the art of reply gang is kind of bit lost with it.
00:21:57
Speaker
Yeah, exactly. It's changed a lot because back then it was really like, our reply look at this reply guy. He's telling me I'm ah i'm stupid for selling. because And I always try to make an effort to not do that, but just like ask normal questions or just kind of shitpost with everyone and not try to start stupid arguments that no one cares about anyway.
00:22:13
Speaker
And I think now it's a lot different. I think reply guys now are like more rare because as you said, like is there's so much bots and so much AI slop everywhere. And then and you know the launch of Kaito also did a lot of damage to CT, I think. um So it's a lot different now. But back then, yeah, I used to just do that. And then every once in a while, post some you know some shit posts, some cat posting and stuff. you know If I found a funny cat meme, you know whatever, just tweet it. Stuff like that. you know and i Yeah, i just kind of followed more people, started interacting with more people and just, yeah, now all of a sudden we're four years. Yeah, because I joined, yeah, January 2021 is my creation date.
00:22:48
Speaker
Has it helped in your trading, being a reply guy or being on CT? um I think so. I think like the inspiration for example for like the Solana trade, I did fine on CT at first, like before I started looking into it myself. I saw, I think, MoonOverlord is one of the guys I also used to follow like way back when. and he He talked about, it's like I think he said, like ah the easiest kingmaker trade of next cycle. and Then he just put the Solana chart from $8 $2.50. He nailed that, let's be that's be real. But there's things like that, yeah, I think it's a good place as long as you know um who's a grifter and who's not a grifter. It can be a good place for inspiration, but it can also be kind of a trap.
00:23:27
Speaker
Yeah, it's it's not that easy to know, if you're especially if you're like new on City. i mean i remember back in 2021, just followed like every one or it's like some list or whatever. And the before i feel like when I discovered in Silicon and I kind of started to realize like who is a grifter and who isn't. I remember when I discovered his account, I was kind of like, yo, why is this guy always so negative and like bearish and all the other people are just saying we're going to hundrednet k and everything changed the world and whatever and then slowly over time I started realizing i oh he's like right about a lot of stuff yeah yeah I remember yeah I remember finding in Silico and I think he either he opened his account for it because he was always on lock you know you go you always you couldn't follow him like that and then
00:24:10
Speaker
Once I got in and I started reading his tweets like, wow what the fuck is going on here? Because it was most of the time he was just complete shit posting, right? like But then every once in a while he would put like, nowadays he doesn't really post about markets anymore, which you know I understand. But back then he would probably sometimes like posting that and it would be so contrarian to what was going on on the timeline at the time. And I was like, wait, what what's this guy talking about? Yeah, he's he's a character, man. I love in Silico. Yeah, me too.
00:24:36
Speaker
Yeah. um what like you you're still working a job right yeah yeah why what why you why are you doing that why why have you not become an idiot is this um that you want to do even or are you so just looking to keep keep working because it like fulfills you or Yeah, i don't i I have a very like easy
Balancing Work and Trading
00:25:01
Speaker
job. like I can be honest about that. like I can work from home like almost all of the time. And it like it's a relatively well-paying job for the effort I have to put in. And it's it's also some like some form of risk management a little bit for me. It's like, I know I have the peace of mind that if everything goes to zero, then i don't it doesn't matter. I don't lose my house. I don't lose my whatever. yeah And I guess I'm just risk averse like that. And besides, like as I said, like I do that that this
00:25:26
Speaker
mostly swing trading stuff. And I like being able to do that without having to think about, Oh, did I have to pay my mortgage next month or something like that? Like I'm always a big, um, advocate for that. Cause I think a lot of people who start trading, they just have this idea. um I think it's mostly like younger people who are like still in school and all day. The only idea they have is like, I do not want to work a job. Like I, I just want to trade. I just want to be retired. That's all i they talk about. Right. And they don't realize like how much that influences the way you trade. If you don't have any other income, like you have to start making decisions based on a needs that you like financial needs that you have. And I, know, the market doesn't care that you have your rent to pay tomorrow. If there's no trades for your system or you, there's nothing, there's no setup. There's no setup. You can't force that just because you have to pay a rent. And I think that's is what kind of ruins people when they start out. It's like they all they just they don't want a job. Like a job is evil and all all i want to do is just trade and I'll make it like that. Yeah, you're just making it a lot harder on yourself. But then, you know, I'm speaking from a very comfortable position. Like, as I said, I get to work from home a lot. You know, it's it's a nice job. It's a nice a nice industry that I work in. I understand like if you don't have access to that or you have to work manual labor five days a week, it's it's a completely different story.
00:26:42
Speaker
But for me, it's it's that. And besides that, like I'm not at a stage where I can comfortably just quit my job now and live off what I have now. it's like no it's It's a much better idea for me to just stick with the job and also like build a career on the side. and and If everything goes, you know, sideways crypto wise, it doesn't matter.
00:26:57
Speaker
um I'm completely fine. And if not, and I, I've worked a job, you know I've, I have like some social stuff in my life. I have like a little bit of things that keep me just not bored during the day as well. Cause you know, I'm not that active in the trading thing most of the time. So if I'm just sitting on my ass all day, looking at the chart, which I, to be fair, I still kind of do, but then I'm more likely to start making, you know, trades out of boredom or whatever. And I think, I don't think that would help me very much either.
00:27:25
Speaker
Would you like to be a full-time trader at some point or anything? Of course, you know, I'd love to be in a, in a, you know, space where I'm like financially free and I don't have to work, but i don't know if full-time trader would really, you know, fit me all that well. I feel like I would have to have some other thing to also keep me busy, some sort of project or something to focus on as well, because yeah, I think I would get, i don't know if I would really get bored that quickly, but it's also not something I re like, it's not really my ambition to do.
00:27:53
Speaker
I mean, if you only do swing trading, then you you kind of have to do something else to keep you occupied. Otherwise, you're just sitting around all day doing nothing and then waiting. And i like look, I like shitposting all day as much as the next guy. But I think at some point, that's going to start like yeah becoming a bit too boring. It does get boring. And you also notice, like as much as we we like to... like there there is ah There are people that are terminally online. But for example, if you...
00:28:21
Speaker
look at the weekends and whatever, the activity is like a lot, like decreases a lot and people are offline, and people have a life and you can't just close any time of day all the time. Yeah, exactly. Like i now all all my friends are, you know, they work normal jobs and stuff. So all my my social activities in the weekend anyway, like I can't tell, I can't call up a a friend of mine on a Wednesday afternoon and say, yo, you want to get a beer? It's like, no man, I have to work. What are you talking about? Stuff like that is it's not really possible anyway. So, And again, want to really reiterate, like I'm in a very lucky position with my job. i And I understand that there's a lot like harder jobs out there And I fully understand why you would want to look at towards trading or something else to to sort of escape that whole, what does Andrew Tate call it? The rat race or whatever, the matrix, whatever you want to call it. and I fully understand that. But for me, it's ah it's a good sort of balance right now.
00:29:11
Speaker
I'm curious, what what kind of background do you have, if you don't mind sharing? Yeah, so my college was like a sort of a general commercial economics, like I guess a bachelor, you would call it. And then afterwards, I did a data science master's. That was quite technical. nice um But then, you know, like for a career, I didn't really want to become like a data scientist or a programmer because, you know I like being a bit more social, like working more with people. So I went more towards sort of a... um, like data management sort of routes or where it's, you know, having a good knowledge about data and data science really helps. Um, but you're mostly, you know, busy with people and more sort of business related stuff and not too much into the technical. Like I'm not, not, I didn't want to be a data analyst or something like that. Cause I think I would get bored very quickly with that. So it's, I guess, yeah, data management sort of commercial economics.
00:30:04
Speaker
That's what helped you in in your trading, like analyzing your, your trades or anything like that. It has done. in the like I've done some projects like for myself when I got bored because I have i could program a little bit. and you know I don't use my programming now in my job, so I try to like every once in a while sort of polish it up again because the thing with programming is if you don't do it, you'll forget it and you're you're never going to get better. and Even worse, you'll just forget it. And of course, now you have AI, so you can like vibe code something in five minutes and yeah that kind of helps. But yeah, I think it it can definitely help, but it doesn't really like fit my style of trading much. Like I don't have to automate anything or things like that, but you can definitely use it to just you know analyze results, things like that. I think it's a very valuable skill to have for ah for most people in markets. i don't think I think I don't use it enough, to be honest. I think I could probably find more applications for it, but I try to like every now and again.
00:30:56
Speaker
Have you noticed anything interesting from that? any Any example or anything in particular? um Yeah, how ah hard it is to work with Exchange APIs sometimes and how hard it is to get quality data. like That's a challenge, man. I thought, like oh, dude, I'm just going to get this data real quick and I'm just going to fuck around with it a little bit. And then, you know it's yeah, it's a process, man. It's it's difficult to to do that. So yeah, noticed that definitely. and No, I think there's ah there's ah there's a lot of things you can do. And especially now with AI, I think you don't really need a much of a background in programming. and I know like if Insilico, Insilico's not going to listen to this, but if he listens to this, he would shoot me on sight. But I think there's like you can use Copilot and stuff or and and or whatever AI model you want. like You can really get something basic off the ground so much faster now than it would have like even three years ago. It would have been so much harder.
00:31:47
Speaker
And especially like debugging and stuff. Like if you run into issues, it's so easy to just kind of find what's going on. Like I remember during my studies, I would spend hours on stack overflow for the most basic thing because it was like this really specific school assignment that no one had done before. So I had, I had to go all like all over stack overflow. was trying find out what the hell was wrong. And now it's like you chuck it in a, whatever AI model you have and it finds it in three seconds. So that's a lot easier to get started with as well. Now I think.
00:32:13
Speaker
For sure. um Has your as your lifestyle changed in any way? Like, are you are you still motivated the same way to work your job as you like your you see your crypto gains increasing?
00:32:24
Speaker
Yeah, that's difficult. I try to really keep that stuff, like, split, you know? like And, you know, it it kind of sounds backwards because at the same time, I'm advocating to, like, take profits and make the money real.
00:32:36
Speaker
But on the other side, I like i really try to yeah really keep it separate because otherwise yeah it it does become sort of demotivating because the numbers of course are completely different from real life, especially like in jobs and stuff.
00:32:50
Speaker
I have to mentally keep track of that and think, okay, but this is different and whatever comes from crypto is extra. you know and and it you know it It really has helped me a lot so far like in like buying a house and then car and everything like that. But I really try to mentally keep it. And maybe it that doesn't make any sense, but for me it's important because, yeah, lot like you know like you said, like if you start letting that go, sort of, yeah, if you if you look at it the same way, both like types of money, I guess, yeah, then you're going to have a really hard time to work a job. yeah But also I know that like markets work in ways like sometimes you have very big peaks or whatever, or you have ah ah like in peak bull markets stuff becomes really, really weird. But then you also have, you know, like markets like right now, like if you're exposed to a bunch of altcoins and you or you have been this since for the last month, then all of the sudden it's it's the other way, right? You lose so much money. And yeah, so it's I try to keep it like completely separate from each other. And that way yeah I managed to kind of cope with it that way. And you have like separate bank accounts something like that or?
00:33:53
Speaker
um No, I think yeah the the money ends up in the same bank accounts, but yeah, it's more of a mental thing, I think. It's just, yeah. No, that makes that definitely makes sense. That's why I was asking. like I can't imagine that to be an impediment after a while.
00:34:07
Speaker
Yeah, yeah, yeah. It definitely, it definitely can be. And it has been like, kind but and especially like during when I was still in school, because back then I was like, I wasn't working any jobs because I didn't want to like, at that point I was like, and like the average trader who starts now is like, dude, I'm not going to work a supermarket. That's why I did the, like the runescape selling gold stuff. Like I was always trying to avoid having a job. So like, I understand it.
00:34:28
Speaker
Um, but back then, yeah, I, I, because I round tripped such ah an amount of money that for me at the time was like out of the world. Like I was super quiet, a bunch of student debts and my, my only income was my student loan at the time. So when you make like your entire student debt in like two months or it will make quotation marks, and then you watch it disappear again, like that's, that was ah that was a, that was an expensive lesson, but I think that helped me a lot as well. Like it was, yeah, it's something you have to experience to understand, I think.
00:34:57
Speaker
Do you do any other stuff in the market apart from swing trading? Like, have you ever been in the in the trenches or like a drop farming or anything like that? ah Yeah, never super successfully. Like, during the peak meme coin season, like, I actually ran up like a little Solana wallet to, you know, quite a decent amount of money. But I also, I round tripped a lot of that. Like, it was during when...
00:35:19
Speaker
like dog with hats and then and popcat and all those like the the major memes called column that they were still running i still remember uh the moment i think dog with hat got like a coinbase listing and i still remember it went like it went berserk in like a couple of minutes and i still remember thinking in the back of my oh dude i should sell this right now i should sell this now i know what coinbase listings do i should sell right now but for some reason my ape brain took over and it said no no no it's gonna go higher and i round tripped a lot on that and Same on a bunch of other coins. So I never consistently became very profitable on chain. I think I made some money. I think some of it made it back to my like normal portfolio, but mostly just, you know, experimenting a bit and then yeah losing a lot of it. and then
00:36:03
Speaker
I think for airdrop farming, I still, I have a vivid memory of having, of clicking someone's hyperliquid referral link, like very early on and looking at it and thinking, and I can't be honest, but I'll do this later, you know? And then I never did. And I completely missed hyperliquid. And I just, I remember I was coping so badly when, when the token went live. I still remember because went, it just went up, up, up, up. up and I was like, oh my God, I,
00:36:26
Speaker
miss this completely and but i remember back then it also kind of still like sucked a little bit like yeah when it first came out it wasn't it wasn't that great and people kind of memed the name hyperliquid because it wasn't really that liquid and perpdex is in general because of dydx and gmx or whatever was around back then didn't have good of a reputation as they do now yeah because all those products kind of sucked so it was it was it wasn't that obvious if you looked like back in hindsight No, and yeah that's not really the reason why i i cope I'm coping so badly over it. It's really the fact that I still remember having the sign-up page open and just being too lazy at that stage to go. But then again, I'm not a perpetrator, so I don't know how successfully I would have really farmed it realistically. So it's really not something to... get you know hung up on too much, I don't think. and then And something like, I think margin-fi is something that I did actually farm quite a bit, of course, out of all things.
00:37:18
Speaker
And I'm pretty sure the token's still not live. I think I recently saw a post, but it's still not launched. So that that's... No, no. So that was that was like one of the ones that I actually farmed quite a bit. I had quite a lot of money in Solana, I think, like, lent out on there or whatever. I had a bunch of points, but yeah, well, we all know how that went. And then Kaito, I guess. Wow.
00:37:38
Speaker
Yeah. yeah fucking margin i still i It still tilts me whenever I see their name on timeline. i Actually, I try to... like I hate Kaito as a thing, as a product and whatever, but if if you get free money, obviously, it's still nice. But I try to sign up, but I remember the like the authorization for Twitter didn't work properly. And I tried a couple of times and I just gave up. And and I was like, ah but then I saw all my friends got like 3K for free or whatever whatever. And I was like, ah. Yeah, dude, I like LinkedIn. I never really tried to farm yaps that much because I thought that was super cringe. All of a sudden, everyone was like making threads and stuff. I didn't do that. But I had a couple of, to i i think a tweet
00:38:17
Speaker
I don't remember what it was, maybe like flaming Ansem or something that was like really viral for me anyway. And I got a lot of yaps from that. yeah And then I got invited to a telegram chat because at the time you could sell like votes to, uh, to projects like projects would be for buying votes. And we had a little group that would like pull together votes and we would like sell the votes and get some money for it. And this was like right before the, the airdrop I remember, cause we were going to vote for something and then It fell out through and that was, that was going to be the first time I voted. And then I ended up saving because you like a seven day cool down or something. And I didn't vote. I remember. And then the airdrop came, came out and it turns out that having like floating actively in the proposals, whatever was ah like a requirement to get a lot more money from your airdrop. oh
00:39:00
Speaker
So I ended up getting a lot less because I never voted during that. So that and so then in the chat, I saw all the all everyone at like 10K, 15K, 20K. And i got I think I got like 1,500 or something. It was still free money. you know It was still fun. But I was like, oh man, if only i had you know voted, I would have gotten like four times this. yeah yeah Many such cases. I'm just saying kind of like dying down and disappearing now because I think it's it's a retarded product and I really hate it. It's like, I'm sure you will understand because you're also like a Twitter power user and I feel like every, like the last thing we need is like any more financial incentives to post anything. Oh my God. Yeah. do to social fry is the stupidest thing that anyone's ever come up with recently. like who Who comes up with something like Kaito where you incentivize people to to post a bunch of like AI subword slop with a bunch of buzzwords in there because it like it makes them money? like You understand that like the entire third world has internet and this is like a lot of money for them. So the only outcome is is that you're going to ruin the whole platform. But yeah, they don't care. i mean, they launched a little token. I'm sure they made a lot of money.
00:40:10
Speaker
I actually have ah a funny, funny with story, which is also connected to you a little bit because you're a pin tweet is I think the Jim Talbot taking profit video. Yeah, yeah, it is. all right yeah And that is something that I really have taken to heart because I mostly trade lower timeframes and I quite enjoy taking profits and stuff, even if it's like stuff can run more. And then I,
00:40:34
Speaker
Like my friend in like December 2023, I think he sent me some with like $100 worth. And that was like before coins really got started and and whatever. yeah and I sold it like a week or a month later for like a 10x. So it was like $1,000. And i was like, yo, I got $3,000. I'm happy.
00:40:52
Speaker
And it was like width. So it would have been like or something at the top. And I remember like having that take profit thing in in in my mind. And I also actually, um I met Jim Talbot before and I told him that because of that video I kind of like, misplaced on not generational wealth for like a little bit of... dude. i like And for you there's like another thousand people who bought early and then held it all the way down again, you know? Yeah, I would've done the same. I would've never just held until like the Pico top and then sold exactly there. like oh
00:41:31
Speaker
be realistic. Yeah. I think the only person who like publicly did really well on with and who I respect a lot for that as well as block race, like he made like a lot of money on way if he was super early on to that. And the thing I respect about him is that he held until like the, the, the complete top, right? I mean, I think it was like,
00:41:51
Speaker
$4 something or something. I think he was still holding it. Yeah, we went to like $4.80. He was still holding at that point. And then I think he tweeted at like $2 or something. Like it went down 50%. He's like, okay, guys, I'm selling my... Because his his wallet was really public, right? Like everyone was i was looking at it. But...
00:42:07
Speaker
He went like, yeah, because I'm selling it because I can buy my dream house and I can change my life. So I'm selling it here. and I think that that's that was that's so strong because like a lot of people who like make it big on paper on meme coins, they'll miss the top like everyone does.
00:42:22
Speaker
And then it'll go down 50%. They're like, oh it's going to go back up. I'm not selling. Yeah. And then they end up holding it all the way to zero. And I know for block race, it was super public. And I know that that even the amount of money everybody knew about and it's like, okay, so you like accepted the fact that your paper profit of, like I think it was eight figures or something, has halved, and you still now are strong enough to say, dude okay, that's it's enough for me, right I'm selling.
00:42:46
Speaker
And then he didn't make it his entire personality afterwards. like's I respect that, man. I really like broo the Block Race for that. I think he did super well on that. I agree. He has me blocked for some reason. I don't know why I like his account, but I agree with with what you said. I respect him. Or he's funny as well.
00:43:05
Speaker
Yeah, really funny. um Do you have any any thoughts on like the current market market environment?
Market Observations and Predictions
00:43:12
Speaker
any where Where do you think we are in the cycle?
00:43:16
Speaker
Yeah, that's a great question. I've been like sort of operating under the assumption that it's like very, very late. like Either Top is now in or, like yeah. i mean Of course, the the last few weeks of price action have ah have changed i think the the picture quite a bit now.
00:43:35
Speaker
I think this is like a really big moment where we are now because if you look at the weekly chart on BTC now it looks awful like if it closes anywhere around here like it looks so cooked to me and I don't know like i don't know maybe I'm not that good at reading charts but this just looks like awful to me so unless it puts in like a solid bounce like it gets above 100k quite quickly again we can start thinking like maybe we still have something left but And also it kind of depends on stocks because stocks don't really look that bad to me, especially now that it's bouncing a little bit. It's bit better. Yeah. So I find it hard. I've just reduced risk a lot over the year now because I think especially I think altcoins tops on the Trump launch. I think Trump launch kind of killed alts for the rest of the year. We've kind of seen that. I think Solana was the leading indicator
00:44:24
Speaker
for just like, I'm not going to say all time. Kind of that's insane. Like it's just, it's Zenith or whatever you say. And it's just like, I remember back then they called it like on-chain NAS and whatever. And then,
00:44:36
Speaker
Like that narrative is long gone and then it's just MemeCoin Casino and just MemeCoins are kind of dead now as well. Yeah, exactly. I think that's when when that stuff topped. The same for MemeCoins. Like that that was de top for MemeCoins. I think that almost every chart there. And then there's been a few. love Like the launches have also just been completely different since then. Like that it's just been a different market. So I've been, like ever since Solana topped, like MemeCoins.
00:44:58
Speaker
I saw actually have a seller at like 293 or 291 or something. So that was really good. it's Of course, a very small amount, but the rest of it, I sold above 200 and I didn't really look back towards Solana anymore. And ever since then I've been just mostly in majors, you know, making a trade here and there, you know, losing a bit of money on plasma. It is what it is. And then you know I wrote ETH a little bit, I sold a bunch of ETH. I'm careful now. like It could go back up and if it does, then you know I've got some money to buy whatever strong new things come out. like That's also kind of my thought process. is like if If it's not over, if we still have a push in the cycle left, then there will be some more opportunities again to get some exposure. and
00:45:39
Speaker
If not, you know I'm happy to to have made what I've made here, sit on sit on my stables a bit. I'll hold my Bitcoin. I don't care. that it's you know i'll I'll hold that till next time. Or you know if I'm completely wrong, if Bitcoin dies, it dies. I think, yeah, it's it's it's a difficult spot. yeah Personally, I'm not taking very big risks here. But then again, like I'm not not a huge trader. I think my trade that I've just kind of made for a little bit, like the medium term, is is moving some into cash. and i've percentage wise, I have quite a bit of cash now. I'm not really looking to rush into buy. i can't bring myself to buy Zcash. I know i should have done that a bunch like a bunch of times already, but I just i can't bring myself to do it. So yeah, I would say tail end. And um and it it really depends on what happens now here on like, if you can even think about continuation or if for now, just going to bleed a little bit.
00:46:31
Speaker
Yeah. what What do you think about Monad, MegaEath, the public sale meta, I guess, which we've had since we've pumped and then Plasma. I mean, Plasma is probably be a bad example, but the one that I still can.
00:46:48
Speaker
Monad is also a bad example because i didn't give me an allocation for the airdrop, so I hate Monad. No, i' I don't know. I'm not really sure. I i haven't really been too ah active in those. like Same for MegaEath. I didn't try to get the allocation. It's not really something I've done before, so I don't really have a very informed opinion on them. I think Monad is, or Monad or however you want to call it, I think they waited a very long time to launch their token.
00:47:12
Speaker
Like, I remember seeing this. I was in their Discord, I noticed the other day. I joined the Discord, like, a really long time ago when it was when I read somewhere that I think Kobe was, like, a seed investor. was like oh, you know what? I'll join the Discord. Maybe there's some my airdrop farming to be done, whatever. yeah Never looked at it. But, like, if you look back how long they've been going and the test nets and then and whatever else,
00:47:32
Speaker
Yeah, I find it, I think they've kind of missed the the prime time to launch, to be honest. So I'm yeah i'm really curious to see how it's going to I mean, hope if I hope it stays like up a little bit more until TGE. So my my ad drop is worth a bit more. But yeah after the overall market looks right now, I'm not too not too convinced, to be honest. symbol And I'm ah quite quite a big hater. I think it's kind of a,
00:47:59
Speaker
use this project yeah i think it's another l1 it's another like high tps and i don't really know too much about it but i think most people are kind of in your shoes where they have an airdrop allocation and i just kind of want to sell so i'm i just wondering like where are you going to sell to like who's who's excited to buy ah but it's only a three percent uh allocation that's a good point yeah that's like so 90 for the for the teeth yeah oh yeah oh dude there you have yeah yeah i'm not i'm not sure i think long term i don't know if it's gonna be any different from all the other big vc launches like you can't really if you like the team allocation is that high i remember like i talked with the previous podcast of us with scott phillips and he was also saying like it's probably just a free forever short after like seven days or whatever the initial pump and then it's just like
00:48:49
Speaker
Yeah, exactly. It'll blow out like early shorters because of course, this is like I think it's a pretty popular idea that it's just like in this in this market condition. So ah probably the first week it'll do decently and and it'll get people excited a bit and then i'll just be it'll just bleed to death. yeah Are you in general like a believer in the in the cycle still?
00:49:08
Speaker
or Yeah, I think, I don't know. I don't know if it's like black and white, because I can definitely recognize that um it's a whole different market ever since we've got all these ETFs now. Like it's just different now that none of the TradFi guys are involved. So I think it's lazy to assume that it'll just do the same thing it's done for the past ah bunch of cycles. I don't think it will.
00:49:29
Speaker
um But... Yeah, I think like because the bull market has looked a lot different from previous ones, so I think ah a bear market will also look different from previous cycles. And yeah, it's just it's different. And I find it kind of, it's hard to adapt, I think. And it's just been it's been ah it's been like a hard few years. like There's been like a lot of nice opportunities, I think, but you've really had to be a lot more active and yeah a lot more like precise with your like coin picks and or yeah trades to really make it you know not like like before where you like and you know that's where the whole all season term came from right like and around since 2016 and like back then its what it was a way
00:50:10
Speaker
Different environment. Way different. I was throwing a dart at ah at a wall and whatever coin you hit, buy and you get you make money. And that's it's just not like that anymore. I don't know if it'll ever will be again. But I'm i'm really curious to see how it's going to go from here. because and And also very curious to see how low Bitcoin can really go or will really go now. I think it'll still go lower than people think because I think it's also too easy to assume that because it's an ETF, it can no longer go down 50%. I think it definitely still can.
00:50:38
Speaker
So yeah, we'll see. I'm not much of ah of a cycle proponent, although I feel like the the current chart actually fits it quite well. If that was like the top, it would have been like pretty, pretty aligned with yeah all of these things. But I also think that it's like, I do think because of the ETFs, like the ceiling is a bit higher, but it can still go down 50%. But 50% is like not that much compared to to cycles before it.
00:51:02
Speaker
yeah I feel like the sea the ceiling is a bit higher now than it was before, and it's also going to move a bit more like Treadfy. And like an 80% down event is only when there's like some geopolitical stuff or whatever. Yeah.
00:51:15
Speaker
you have more COVID, whatever, you know where like the indices also go down a lot. Yeah, i think i think you're right there, yeah. i think Because right now we don't really, and I want to knock on wood for this, but we don't really have any big Black Swan events pushing us down. Like i like you said before, like you had COVID, you had FTX collapsing, you had all these other things that were playing a role.
00:51:36
Speaker
And it's also that there's also I've never been like fully yes, no on cycle. It's like, I don't think these markets move based on a calendar that that's so much more at play that it it' it's, it's a lot, it's way too easy to just say yes, because it's been two and a half years, whatever i will now sell or I will know, but I think that's not really. it's more It might be more coincidence or just how things played out before, and it's not something that's a given for any future cycles or cycle ends. or I mean, i mean it it would be great if we got another 80% discount. but Yeah, right now, yes. will it Will it really be that easy, you know?
00:52:09
Speaker
Yeah, exactly. Like, if I can write another, like, kind of liquid 10x from a bottom somewhere, please sign me up. Yeah, definitely. I guess we got some some copium with, like, midterms next year and trump climbing.
00:52:23
Speaker
priming it up for us or whatever they're going to do. Yeah. All depends on where he's going to crime it up, you know, if he's just going to focus on this Trump coin or what's the other one who he was in like kind of. World Liberty, whatever it's called.
00:52:36
Speaker
Yeah. I'm not buying those. So if it's those, then I'm not going to really. No, but they're still, I think they're also holding like a lot of Bitcoin and ETH as well, like in in that token, whatever. the I don't really understand what that what it does or what it is or whatever, but it's like holding other assets and.
00:52:51
Speaker
Yeah. They're like bullposting them and whatever. I think he has made the and half of his or more than half of his net worth now from crypto. So hat's so ridiculous he's kind of an advice to keep going. Yeah. And he also, didn't he also like print a lot of money just from the Trump trading fees? Like at the start, that I think because it was like, Yeah, I think I read that somewhere as well. And and I think just Trump is just a wild card in general, right? Like that we've seen that with the the whole tariff things and I think there's so much stuff that he does and he says that also influences markets that it's really, it's hard to predict, I think.
00:53:25
Speaker
I do feel like now is still the the good time though, which is why i'm not also not like this, also not an argument in favor of the cycle because um i feel like as long as he's still president,
00:53:37
Speaker
the the base case is like better than if we're going to get a Democrat again in 2028. And then like they they're just going to roll back everything and then rate the industry again. and then Yeah, from a regulatory standpoint, definitely. like There's a lot less risk of just stuff being outright banned now. That's that's definitely true. and We kind of forgot about that now, but but it was like a real risk still last year. so Yeah, absolutely. it's Mr. to Gary, right? like He was not not our not our friend, Mr.
00:54:08
Speaker
I think that's a pretty much it from from what i what I have to say what I have to talk about. Did you have anything else that you did you want to talk about or that you have like that you want to share?
00:54:19
Speaker
Not necessarily. I mean, it's been good chatting to you, you know, and want to remind everyone, please offer them some money every now and again. you you'll trust your or You'll love yourself for it. Trust me. yeah um And yeah, man, so it was really fun. Thanks for having me.
00:54:34
Speaker
Yeah, thanks for coming on. Yeah, no worries.