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Insilico Terminal Podcast Episode 15 - Satsdart
83 Plays14 days ago
In this episode, we explore a trader’s journey from discovering Bitcoin during COVID to navigating the “up-only” phase of the bull market - and the hard reset after getting wiped in May 2021. He shares how rebuilding with strict Excel tracking restored discipline, lessons from Snowbank and Snowdog, and why publicly sharing trades shifted from community to extraction. We revisit the FTX collapse in Lisbon, discuss why most of his profits come from Bitcoin perps, and break down seasonality, ETH’s failed hedge narrative, and the current state of on-chain perp DEXs versus CEXs. The conversation closes with thoughts on today’s choppy markets, Solana vs. Ethereum, staying grounded, and the importance of actually taking profits.
00:00 Inro, discovering Bitcoin YouTube during COVID, and the initial transition into crypto, navigating the "up only" phase of the bull run.
10:15 Getting zeroed in May 2021, rebuilding via strict Excel tracking, and the stories of Snowbank and Snowdog.
15:50 Why sharing trades publicly shifted from community building to extraction, and the pressure of managing followers' expectations.
20:30 Witnessing the FTX collapse while with other traders in Lisbon, and finding opportunity in peak fear.
25:00 Why 70% of his profits come from Bitcoin perps, utilizing seasonality, and why ETH has failed as a hedging instrument.
32:15 A look at the current state of on-chain perp DEXs, and why centralized exchanges still offer a superior edge.
36:00 The current "boring" state of the market, the Solana vs. Ethereum dynamic, and avoiding the "all-in" mentality during chop.
41:20 Staying grounded despite wealth, the importance of self-judgment over judging others, and the necessity of actually taking profits.
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Transcript
Introduction to InSilico Terminal
00:00:03
Speaker
you
00:00:13
Speaker
Welcome to a new episode of the InSilico Terminal podcast. This time in real life, in person, very special occasion, new occasion.
00:00:25
Speaker
I'm with my good friend Seth Sars. And so I'm here at his home in Weisset for our recording. And the it's a bit different than usual because this is also our first German guest.
00:00:39
Speaker
while also being in person and I'm also German so we usually speak German to each other but now gonna speak English for the podcast and it's also in person so it's a little bit of a different setup i hope everything with the quality will be all right but I'm looking forward to this episode and I think it would be a nice one and usually I ask people to introduce themselves at the beginning of the episode so who are you what do you do yeah I'm I'm sats.
Meet Seth Sars: A Crypto Trader
00:01:07
Speaker
I'm well, mostly trader myself, probably know me from Twitter.
00:01:14
Speaker
But yeah, most what I do is trading shit posting a bit, bit less this year. But that's what i usually do. Yeah. So how did you get into crypto?
00:01:25
Speaker
ah Well, I started when I worked like a part-time job after I moved out. ah I worked at a grocery store and I was looking at what I would do with my money that I have left over.
Journey into Crypto
00:01:44
Speaker
And yeah, I just researched a bit and then I found like, ah crypto YouTube and as the way goes you usually find the like very I don't know like the hype YouTubers and then I look through what the ones that looked sort of normal and then I just watched their videos ah and it made sense to them like the Bitcoin bull case yeah so
00:02:18
Speaker
Then I just started buying like 100 euros worth of Bitcoin or something.
00:02:25
Speaker
What kind of content did they make back then? Like was just like the usual XRP to the moon, Bitcoin to the moon and stuff like that? I don't think I've ever watched like a crypto YouTuber myself. No, he made like, it was like videos every two or three days. Yeah, market update, Bitcoin did this. i see. And there was news about, i don't know.
00:02:45
Speaker
Like at the time COVID yeah started and then he was like, yeah, COVID could do, I don't know, like the Bitcoin bull case at the moment.
00:02:56
Speaker
He did like the look into Bitcoin.com. Do you know that website? I remember it. I've heard about it But with like the MVRZ score, the Pi Cycle indicator.
00:03:08
Speaker
And like the moving averages or whatever, like all those metrics. Yeah. He'd go over that. Were you ever interested in like the technology part or did you already look at it from a financial lens or like trading lens mostly? ah I mean, i understood the tech somewhat, but it's not.
00:03:29
Speaker
what's most interesting to me. I didn't care that much. that Like I understood that financially it makes sense. Like for example, Bitcoin, yeah that it's like all on chain on, like no one can take it from you, but That was just part of like the financial bull case. Yeah.
00:03:53
Speaker
So you already started looking at it as a way to make money, basically. Yeah. Or like a way to store my money, yeah i guess. Yeah. So you just like DC8 into different things at the beginning? or Yeah.
00:04:06
Speaker
I see.
Early Trading Adventures
00:04:07
Speaker
Yeah, was Bitcoin, ETH. I remember I sold one of my knives in CS. I sold it for...
00:04:18
Speaker
ETH at like $250. And then ETH went from what was it like 320 to like 80 in two months in the March crash.
00:04:31
Speaker
ah Yeah. What did that mean? I mean, at the time, it it was a lot of money to me. I had 400 in crypto maybe yeah or 500.
00:04:43
Speaker
And then I was on vacation with my family. And then I saw, because at the time I was holding Bitcoin, ETH and LINK. Mm-hmm. And then I opened TradingView and I'm like, what the fuck's going on? yeah We were like out exploring the city and i was like, what the fuck's going on here?
00:05:02
Speaker
But then by the time I got back, I'm like, yeah, this is probably a good opportunity.
00:05:09
Speaker
And then I, well, I didn't have much money, but then I thought, yeah, I should probably put that all in now. So you just put it in Bitcoin and ETH and LINK basically? Or yeah.
00:05:21
Speaker
And then I guess you did pretty well in 2023. What happened? Oh, well. I wanted to... you already post on Twitter back then? Like, did you already? I made my account in May.
00:05:33
Speaker
So... I see. Two months after March. Yeah. And that's when I started learning to trade, okay which means, i mean, Bitcoin went up a lot in 2020, like everything I held went up a lot, but then all those profits I'd put like $50, $100 into Bybit, Binance and try to trade and like treat it as
00:06:06
Speaker
I will lose this money to get experience and yeah learn to trade. It took me a while to actually figure out trading profitably, but yeah, like during DeFi summer,
00:06:21
Speaker
i Everyone else was making money and I was there sitting on Bybit trying to trade like $50 into yeah like 1K or something.
00:06:32
Speaker
And it felt like I was being stupid, but in the end, like long term, I think it paid off. What kind of strategy did you use back then to trade?
00:06:44
Speaker
It was...
Building a Trading Model
00:06:46
Speaker
You remember Salsa back then, right? Yeah. Salsa tequila. He would always post like every thought he had on the market and I'm doing this because don't know, like people got liquidated, I'm buying.
00:06:57
Speaker
And I tried to always not copy trade him, but to make like a like a mental model, what would SELSA do right now, and then try to trade based off that.
00:07:13
Speaker
And then that worked pretty well. Like, mostly just, ah like, one minute chart trading, buying liquidations, and waiting for the bounce, and then closing again.
00:07:27
Speaker
So did he manage to to run up some accounts that way, or...? yeah run up in the ne he map and back down as it goes in the beginning yeah like from may to like end of year i think i was only up like 2x or something even though i should be up way more because I also got like the uni airdrop for example, because I did a few trades during DeFi summer, but nothing like I could have made so much more if I just stick to that. But I i wanted to learn perps trading.
00:08:06
Speaker
And when did it start to become more worth it for you to do that?
00:08:12
Speaker
I'd say like early 21, I was at a point where I thought I was good enough to trade that I could put more money into it.
00:08:27
Speaker
So that was, I kept some, I don't know if it was ETH or Bitcoin, but the rest was just in exchanges trading back on FTX, I think back then. The good old days. Yeah.
00:08:40
Speaker
So just like kept this frame the same strategy, but you got better at it over time or like started losing less. It was always perps, one minute trading, having three screens open, waiting for liquidation. yeah Just really short term trading.
00:08:57
Speaker
i see. And I think at some point in like 2021, you also went way more onto like on-chain
Challenges in On-Chain Trading
00:09:02
Speaker
stuff. Like you were pretty good into like the rotation game that was there back then. Like A-back. That was like,
00:09:11
Speaker
So in early 21, I was good at perps trading, but then the May 21 crash came and that basically zeroed me pretty much. I see i had some like altcoin positions and like some of the stuff I cashed out, but I did like all those stupid things like you keep depositing more margin because you're gonna get liquid and then it just kept going down and kept going down. yeah ah And then that summer, for like one or two months, I was just like not doing anything crypto because I didn't really have money. And then knife I took what was left and tried to
00:09:58
Speaker
That's also where I started my, cause I have an Excel sheet where every week I type the amount that I have because I track everything with Excel, like everything in my life as a German would. more Some Germans.
00:10:12
Speaker
No, I also like track quite a lot of things in Excel sheets. all i think Maybe not as much as you, but like. Yeah. i mean, it's helpful. It is helpful. Yeah. But yeah, that's when i I was like, yeah, I'm down a lot of money, but This money I have now is 100% of what I have. So I'll make the most of it and not treating it like, I don't know, certain dollar amount, but 100% just do the best with it. Yeah. And then I,
00:10:41
Speaker
started thinking like on perps, there's always the risk of you just becoming really stupid one day and making mistakes that can cost you the entire account.
00:10:54
Speaker
And then I was looking elsewhere, like on chain, I saw I think I traded a bit on DYDX in late 2020, early 21. Or was it already around like that? Yeah.
00:11:06
Speaker
I didn't even know that. i I had like, I think I had one ETH of volume there, which is nothing. But my airdrop then, think the airdropped in like, was it September 21?
00:11:20
Speaker
Sometime around there. I got a pretty good airdrop there. And then before that, I found AVAX. So like, yeah, this is a growing ecosystem. I should probably take part in this. Like every chart is just up only. And then you think, oh, everything's going up only. It's time to ah look at it. Yeah. And then that was really what rebuilt my portfolio. Yeah. Like I really made,
00:11:48
Speaker
a lot of money on like Joe. What else was there? There were like a bunch of meme coins and then like the snow bank snow dog. Sadly, I didn't make money there. Well, I made money on what is what is a snow dog? Sorry. Yeah. yeah that So in the beginning, there was snow bank, which was just like the OHM fork on Avalanche.
00:12:17
Speaker
And Well, the first one was Wonderland, like Time, and then there was another one, Snowbank. yeah And Snowbank, we had like an AVAX community chat, and pretty early on people people were like, yeah, ah let's buy this thing, and we're all let just buying it up, and then it went like 50x in like 10 hours or something, back back in the good old days. Yeah.
00:12:44
Speaker
And yeah, made good money there, but then I staked all of that and just weighed because, well, if no one sells, we'll all make more three free by the daily or like every eight hour, like rebase.
00:12:59
Speaker
like reba And then sometime later, I don't remember exactly, but Snow Dog launched and it was like the same thing as Snow Bank.
00:13:10
Speaker
But then they made, they had like this, yeah, we're going to do a big ah like buyback of the token yeah with all of the backing.
00:13:21
Speaker
And only then I found out because I talked to the Snowbank guy through Twitter a little bit because I think they DM me first or I DM
Impact of Sharing Trades
00:13:31
Speaker
them. I don't know.
00:13:32
Speaker
But then no was like, hey, are you are you guys doing Snowdog? This is a bit weird that you're doing two different tokens. But then i don't I don't remember what really happened, like what we talked about. But yeah, in the end, it was they did the buyback and then it went straight to zero. yeah I think a day before i so I bought into Snowdog, I put like 10K in.
00:13:56
Speaker
And then when the buyback came, i was like hammering sell, sell, sell. and it showed like your 10k is now i refresh it wouldn't work now it's 50k refresh it wouldn't work and then i clicked the sell button it went through and i think i ended up with like 10.2k yeah so in profit a little bit yeah but then i thought okay now i'll put this money back into snowbank which was like their other token which then also just it went from i think it was like 2k down to 80 or something so yeah basically to zero
00:14:32
Speaker
happens to the best of us. like Back then you were way more active with like sharing what you what you did, at least from what I remember. yeah Before we knew each other, when I just like followed your account and you were yeah growing, shared a lot of what you did. i also like bought a lot of stuff on, like I bought Joe I think on AVEX and like Teddy and and oh yeah teddy what else I was and then also like Jewel and all of that stuff afterwards.
00:14:55
Speaker
did the like Did these things that like went to zero afterwards kind of disencourage you from like sharing more stuff? Yeah, 100%. hundred percent Because we got like so much toxicity from that? Yeah, because back then I thought, oh yeah, I'm just helping these people, like sharing it because I'm so smart. i I didn't think I was the best, but I thought, yeah, I can...
00:15:22
Speaker
Like if I share what I do, maybe it helps other people. But then those people, they wouldn't think, oh, nice. He's sharing that. I'll take a look. Maybe it's interesting for me. It's more like, yeah, I'm buying this because of him. yeah And then if it goes down, that's all his fault. yeah And I realized like,
00:15:40
Speaker
the the payoff you get if you're like, I made that my entire personality. Like, Jewel, for example, was like, I was the Jewel guy. yeah And then, like, what am I going to do? like At the top, I thought about, hey, you made a huge return here. Maybe you should sell some. But then I was like, yeah, but these people, they followed me into this. so yeah Because I'm very, like,
00:16:12
Speaker
I'm a very like honest person, so I wouldn't feel good about ah telling people to buy something and then um' I'm just like, yeah, sorry, I sold. yeah But I didn't tell you guys. all Yeah, was weird back then.
00:16:27
Speaker
I feel like it's very difficult if you're like, make something your whole personality, like coin or even chain or whatever. like even when you there's no There's no recovering from it because you can't just be like, yeah, guys, that's that's it for me.
00:16:40
Speaker
yeah The only thing you can do afterwards is leave. And everyone wants to sell at some point. Yeah. That's the point of like having the token in the first place. So they like want to sell it. Even if you look at something like the Ethereum Foundation, like.
00:16:52
Speaker
They kind of have to sell their ETH to like fund their operations, if it's like good or bad or whatever, but like they have to do it and then people still flame them for it because it's like a negative yeah pressure on the market.
00:17:04
Speaker
And they're even doing like something useful or like debatably useful with that money. But it's still like It's very hard to like... Yeah, buy what they sell, I want it to go up so I can sell higher. Yeah, exactly. We all just want to buy in and i like find a cheaper person to sell to.
00:17:20
Speaker
But yeah, I think Twitter also changed quite a lot from back then.
The Role of Twitter in Crypto Trading
00:17:26
Speaker
Like back then it was way more common for people to like share what they were doing. Yeah, because it wasn't... People didn't share anything...
00:17:36
Speaker
to immediately sell into what was coming. Like, Hasaka, for example, he would, I don't know, tweet some like AVAX meme or something or like tweet about Joe and then he'd hold it for like three months. Yeah.
00:17:51
Speaker
But now it feels like people tweet I mean, now it's dead anyways, but like six, eight months ago, yeah people were tweeting, oh yeah, this I found this amazing new meme or like they write paragraphs worth of shit about their token and then two minutes later they sell into the people buying.
00:18:11
Speaker
It's basically just like an advertisement mechanism or like marketing mechanism at this point. Like i can I can remember back then, it was also a bit more about like, Like, obviously, everyone wants to make money, everyone wants to make profit, but it's a bit like I'm going to share something for like other people to also like profit with me or like some people thought of that at least. And then like someone realized like, hey, I can just use that to like sell, dump on people. yeah And now everything on Twitter has basically just become extraction in that way because it's like,
00:18:41
Speaker
You just see attention itself when like Kaito happened and all of that. And now it's all just bots and you can make money from engagement itself. And that kind of like ruined all of CT in like a major way.
00:18:53
Speaker
Especially like, remember Salsa back then, like all of his knowledge, he just posts on Twitter. yeah He could have probably sold that in like a coaching program or whatever. He could have made so much money, but because he was just tweeting it out for everyone to see, for example, I got to learn from him and learn trading through him.
00:19:15
Speaker
Basically, I didn't need anyone else. Just myself, my own mistakes, my own like learnings, but then reading how he sees in the market and learning based off that.
00:19:29
Speaker
I think you can just get way too much like negative backlash nowadays if you like yeah share your thoughts about the market too much because people just want to make money. Do you see Salsa's comments now? yeah It's like, always no, you're always wrong, man. I mean, he kind of admits himself that he's like washed off. Yeah, but still it will.
00:19:47
Speaker
I mean, I replied to him once saying like he's the best Bitcoin trader know I know and the worst altcoin trader I know, which is kind of true, but yeah.
00:19:59
Speaker
I think the... Like when I'm... I'm not being negative, it's more like poking at him or like making jokes, but there's people that they copy trade you and then they expect you to fall for yeah their losses, which is just the wrong way. Yeah, you can't really like, um' um that's kind of like a scary thing about your account becoming too big.
00:20:24
Speaker
yeah I mean, like if if you just think about it in theory, it's nice to have a big account, big audience, blah, blah, blah. and Especially like if you just want to extract from people, But ah I kind of like really appreciate having the freedom to post what I want mostly. Yeah. And I feel like that's kind of a not there for you anymore. if like that account size, because you have to be more conscious about what people are going to do with that information. And then like all the people that just come to you because they see, oh, he has lots of followers. I'll DM him.
00:20:52
Speaker
I don't know. Pretend to be his friend. Like, yeah. Yeah. I mean, there's also upside, I guess. There's also like politics. Yeah, always. Yeah. Yeah. that the kind Even just like airdrops for like Kaito and stuff. Yeah.
00:21:05
Speaker
I still got an airdrop from them, even though i wasn't i making weird engagement farm tweets. Did you still like during all that on-chain phase, did you like stop trading perps completely or you still traded perps as well?
Adapting Trading Strategies
00:21:24
Speaker
Wait, let me think. But like, how did your trading evolve over the years after like 2021? Yeah, I think back then I was barely trading anymore because i was I wanted to be like all in on whatever because I was doing rotations. So I always thought, yeah, I have to be all in into the best coin possible yeah because I wanted to.
00:21:49
Speaker
It's like the.
00:21:52
Speaker
mindset you have when you have like 5k in the market yeah i want to hit like a 10x and then put that all into another 10x but then i missed the mark where i was like yeah now you have to diversify look at downside risk as well and then i yeah i feel pretty hard in that department yeah and then 2022 was like i was like Everyone was hating or like not everyone, obviously, but like the loud voices always the negative ones.
00:22:24
Speaker
And that's when I took like a three month break, I think, from Twitter, because I would just see the people that they lost a lot of money and then they blame me for it. And then I'm here.
00:22:38
Speaker
I also lost a lot of money with them because I told them I'm buying this thing. So I held it all the way back down basically because I i felt like I was forced to buy because I didn't want to be dishonest. yeah Even though it's like looking back, it's stupid. Yeah.
00:22:59
Speaker
I mean, you don't really owe anyone anything. Yeah. But buts I guess it's good to like take And that's what I learned for this cycle. Like, i I didn't make anything my personality. I was just tweeting whatever i wanted to.
00:23:11
Speaker
And also had more like coins that wouldn't go down 99% in a few weeks. So did you trade like... ah Did you get back into perhaps trading in 2022 now? Yeah. Well...
00:23:25
Speaker
yeah well After the FTX, like after that went down, because before that I was basically doing nothing.
00:23:38
Speaker
Like I was just at home playing video games 24 seven, like trying to forget losing so much money.
Reigniting Passion for Trading
00:23:47
Speaker
And then we were in Lisbon at like the Airbnb with Peach, Reese, all of them.
00:23:55
Speaker
And like talking to all the guys there was, it kind of made me want to be part of crypto or like wanting to build my portfolio up again.
00:24:07
Speaker
So then I came home, I look liquidated some CS skins and like some other stuff, put money back in the market and then traded my way up again on mostly just perps and then put the profits into ETH and Bitcoin, I think at the time.
00:24:25
Speaker
What exactly about that inspired you so much? Because I think that's a really good story for like many people to hear because many people have like that experience of losing or just not making that much like a bit hopeless or whatever. And what inspired you to to keep going after that?
00:24:43
Speaker
I think the main thing was just being there with my friends and experiencing like having a nice time but then also like talking about crypto and like what the other guys plans are and whatever like that it inspired me to where i was like yeah you can't just be like this loser that just sits in his room and plays video games now you can be a bit less of a loser play video games but also do crypto yeah
00:25:16
Speaker
So I wanted to... Well, I just had like the the drive came back to want to be good at this and to make money.
00:25:27
Speaker
I feel like that's really important to have like good people around you yeah to inspire you to to improve and become better. I remember when I first started going to conferences and stuff, it was still during like 2023 when it was... The market did go back up, but it was still like bear market vibes, especially on timeline as well.
00:25:45
Speaker
And it really motivated me to just like see that people are still there. They still care about crypto. They still like try to do something with it, build something with it, build their wealth themselves with it. And that was really like um inspiring to to see that there's like Like, hey, it's not just me that sees, like, something in this. Like, there's not people as well. And that kind of helps you to, like, keep going and be like... And then you can also see, like, oh, there's some people that are with me in this and they wanted to succeed. And then there's people that are, like, giving up on it.
00:26:17
Speaker
And you kind of want to prove to them that, no, it's worth being here. Yeah. And, like, I can... It's kind of like... in a Ponzi scheme. If I buy now, they'll have to buy after me later. So I get that. I remember i I have a friend that is also like very into crypto. Like he knows a lot about it.
00:26:37
Speaker
Maybe he will watch this as well. And it's like, um Like he's also been in it for like a similar amount of time as me. But I remember like in 2021 after FTX happened, there was like this CoffeeZilla video, moment did I think, which like reached a ton of normies and he sent me that and he was like, yeah, crypto is over, yeah um whatever. i was like, no, I'm just going stick around anyway. I don't care. Yeah.
00:27:00
Speaker
And he... He's definitely, I guess, regretted his decision back then because he's like went back in anyway, especially as like meme coins came around or whatever, but he's also like a bit of a gambler.
00:27:12
Speaker
He's not done too well in any part. I was just laughing at the for that thought that he would might watch this. But then yeah it's definitely worth to just say stick around. For me, was the same, especially like looking back and seeing there have been cycles before where the exact same thing happened. yeah And I've also already been through a cycle because I joined in 2017. And same thing.
00:27:31
Speaker
and it was like the same thing But I feel like it's very... Whenever the market goes down a lot, it's more like it's just smart to see it as opportunity. yeah Because it always goes up and down, and up and down. But if you pay attention while it's down, you'll probably get more alpha than by being there when it's like yeah peaks.
00:27:56
Speaker
That's also like one of the main inspirations to me was... We were at the Airbnb, like eight guys, I think, at the Airbnb.
00:28:10
Speaker
like This was back in Lisbon during FTX. And then the withdrawal is locked. i think But we wasn't right when it happened, right? Yeah, that's korea we were there. And then I walked down the stairs and I saw Alex Wise with an S, not the
Post-FTX Trading Adjustments
00:28:25
Speaker
C. yeah He was on the couch on his laptop just trading like the spreads between like his locked, his withdrawal locked FTX account and Binance.
00:28:37
Speaker
And then I thought, damn, that's really cool. That's like taking your profiting of like a terrible situation which showed me that like it's not always over when there's something bad yeah happening like so i saw it more like an opportunity to get back in because prices were also cheap i feel like that's where most of the opportunity lies in like the worst moments like 10 10 recently or just like when a lot of people get liquidated and lose hope and whatever then there's always a lot of opportunity how so did you like still continue to trade the one minute chart when you got like back into perhaps trading or did your strategy change after that in the beginning i tried to but
00:29:27
Speaker
I realized that that doesn't really work. Or maybe I got washed. i going to it It didn't work for me that well anymore. It was like a different environment. Yeah. I feel like it always changed because now I probably have the same strategy I had in 2021 and I would, I don't know, just lose only because the market is just different now yeah it's way less because back then it was like the over leveraged retards that were getting stopped out and then you just yeah oh yeah thanks for the fill and it's just back up within like a few hours but now it's more like slow roll like rollovers and there's no five percent insta dump in one can apart from 10 cents yeah
00:30:12
Speaker
I feel like institutions and ETFs and detf or whatever have definitely changed the market in that regard. like it's It just moves differently than it did back then, even though it didn't trade that actively.
00:30:23
Speaker
So you're now like more a higher time frame basis in some basically, right? Yeah, I checked my CMM. Like my perps profit was, I think 70% of my profit is trading Bitcoin. So that's what I always stick to.
00:30:42
Speaker
And then always the trades I do best in was buying. I don't remember the price levels, but like buying early January and then selling in March, like holding perps on Bitcoin for like a long time.
00:30:57
Speaker
Because of seasonality or like just it just market structure? Yeah, just everything. Mostly just I think it goes up. So saw up because I didn't.
00:31:10
Speaker
Well, I felt like I didn't have enough exposure, so I wanted to have more.
00:31:17
Speaker
I didn't know that Bitcoin was where most of your profits came. I thought you were more of an altcoin. Yeah, I mean, some OTs I trade will really well, but others I don't. ETH, for example, I'm negative P&L on ETH.
00:31:31
Speaker
I think it's also because I mostly use ETH if I want to hedge. who But that might also just be an excuse. but It's more, I don't know, ETH has never been my my perps go-to.
00:31:49
Speaker
Which might be a good thing. Because if instead of BTC, I sat in ETH. So you like... How do you use it to hash? Well, oftentimes it's like overnight.
00:32:01
Speaker
I want to, well, not so anymore now, but like back then it was overnight. I felt like I don't want to, like for example, I'd be in a Bitcoin position for four weeks and then I think I could either take profit from my Bitcoin long now or it's a long term position, but I can hedge overnight if I, I don't know, sleep well, or if I feel like it's probably going to go down.
00:32:29
Speaker
was more inclined to just hedge with ETH. What is it like nowadays for you? I think right now you're not doing that much because the market is kind of boring and there's not little bit of much going on. Yeah, this year has been really slow.
Navigating Market Challenges
00:32:45
Speaker
Especially since like April.
00:32:50
Speaker
I... I had a few trades that went bad in like May and June, I think. And then afterwards I was like, yeah, this is not my environment. So I took all the money out of perps accounts and just, yeah, tried like, for example, take part in pump ICO, do like Monad, do Mega, like look for other ways to make money while
00:33:23
Speaker
perhaps are not in a condition where I can trade well. I feel like April was kind of like the only real huge opportunity and then it's mostly just been rangering for the rest of the year. and but Yeah, I think i also I had good trades into April but then held them for too long.
00:33:40
Speaker
And then once got wrecked on hype, I think it was because, oh yeah. I remember I was in Bavaria. We were at like, ah I don't know what you call it in English. Like the beer events, whatever festival where you just drink like folks fest.
00:33:58
Speaker
Yeah. Well, it's suddenly mean i doing this it's like a mini October fest. Yeah. Yeah. That's a good, that's a good way to put And then I got really drunk and then I walked back home. It was like,
00:34:11
Speaker
2 or 3 a.m. m I check my phone and then, oh, I got liquidated. It's like the entire two days before I didn't check check the positions for whatever reason. I don't. Did he not use stop loss?
00:34:22
Speaker
No. You were just like, if it happened, what happened? Yeah. I think that, yeah, that was pretty stupid. Yeah. But like, whenever i go to Bavaria, visit my family, I'm like, yeah, not checking.
00:34:35
Speaker
I don't care about Charles right now, which is, i mean, good for my family, i think, but that for my portfolio and that. Why don't you just like at least protect your position before that? I couldn't tell you now.
00:34:50
Speaker
I think I also miscalculated because I think I heard spot that didn't count towards my collateral. Oh, I see. So I thought I had way more collateral than I actually had. Yeah. So then the.
00:35:07
Speaker
It was like 80% of my collateral was something that didn't count towards my margin. So I thought I had five times more collateral than I had. Okay, that makes sense. That makes sense.
00:35:18
Speaker
It was a stupid makes mistake, but yeah, yeah that's what happens. is or but what What do you think about Perp Stakes? I feel like that's kind of the the new meta right now, like the only interesting thing apart from like pre-sales or whatever. I think It's good that we have them.
00:35:40
Speaker
I don't trade on them that much. Like I used hype early. But I thought it was so laggy that... Because I was used to, like, centralized exchange, like, everything's instant. At the beginning, it also just wasn't that... Yeah, yeah.
00:36:00
Speaker
So then I was like, yeah, I mean, this is cool that it exists, but I don't think it's as special as people make it out to be. Which is also why, like, I... I don't think I touched it again until, like, very recently. Yeah.
00:36:15
Speaker
Like, if I traded my... sex perps on Hype, I probably it would have gotten like a huge add-rope, but oh well, that's what happens. Because I was also like too lazy to check it out again because I checked it out in the beginning and I didn't like it.
00:36:33
Speaker
Yeah, I guess I get that. I only did it because I had the vault and then like you all put money into that and I liquidate that. True, which is also made a story all in the video thanks to CL pointing it out, which is a funny funny bit.
00:36:49
Speaker
But yeah, I also like kind of dismissed Hybe. I didn't really think it was as successful as it is right now. And then I did the same thing with Leiter as well. I mean, I guess we don't really know if Leiter was successful. opened because Jazz was tweeting about it. yeah And i wanted to i even made like a sticky note that I wanted to check out lighter.
00:37:08
Speaker
And then I went to the page and it said, like, it was asking me for like a code. And I'm like, what do you mean code? yeah Fuck you. Just let me trade. yeah And then I was like, yeah, fuck this shit. I'm not going to touch it. Yeah. And then I haven't i haven't opened it since.
00:37:23
Speaker
I don't know. I've only used extended and WUFI Pro, of course, because that's why I did the first orderly challenge and then the second one. I use it sometimes, but mostly just centralized exchange.
00:37:39
Speaker
And all all of the exchanges on in-silical terminal, obviously. Yeah, of course. Yeah. Only through the only product placement. Through the terminal. is In this episode. No, but you're not really a terminal. You've still never tried it, right? No.
00:37:53
Speaker
i I think I opened it once. Because they were supposed to ah integrate with WooX back in like early 23. And then that fell apart, something I don't remember.
00:38:08
Speaker
But yeah, then then it was like, yeah, that the terminal doesn't have my exchange that I'm using. So so that's like the primary reason why. yes i Yeah.
00:38:18
Speaker
I mean, I probably use it if it wasn't if I was on Binance or whatever else Hyperliquid. The message.
00:38:29
Speaker
No, I mean, there's like still exchanges being added and like many more things to come. Yeah, I think we don't we don't always need to like shill everything out of the terminal. Obviously I use the terminal for all of my trades on all the exchanges that exists and blah blah blah. What else did I want to talk about? I think like there's a new Persex called like the Kraken one, right? Nado? Yeah, Nado. Nado? Yeah, Ponzi told me about it. Yeah.
00:38:57
Speaker
What do you think about that? I mean, it gave me a few errors when I tried depositing. Really? And then it's also on ink chain. So, yeah, I don't know. Like maybe who knows, but I wouldn't.
00:39:12
Speaker
I don't know. I don't think you have a bull case for it. I've tried to do what you said because that sounds kind of interesting, like what he said about, because it's like already multi-collateral, so you can like.
00:39:22
Speaker
And there's like a vault that, yeah it's like HLP, but then that, what you put in there, you can use as collateral for trading, which is like something new. Yeah.
00:39:34
Speaker
No, I think like extended is also like doing the same thing, right? But they haven't... Oh, oh yeah, they posted that. did an old thing. I didn't try it yet. But like I wanted to do the strategy of like looping the... Blending Bitcoin.
00:39:48
Speaker
Yeah. a ah And then there's these two farm points. yeah But the thing is, like the the wall is full, so I couldn't do it yet. Yeah, same. ah But maybe that would be interesting. But I'm also really curious like how the perp sexes will develop, especially...
Future of Decentralized Trading Platforms
00:40:00
Speaker
like as lighter TGE nears and I guess more is to come next year and also the general market outlook is kind of like terrible at the moment and also hype is kind of going to zero. so what what is the higher is the Hype is like the benchmark that yeah like no one would be trading on like NATO if there wasn't hype with like what is it 30 billion valuation. yeah
00:40:26
Speaker
Like all that is just, yeah, I want to farm the next huge airdrop. And I think most of them will just die off. It's basically like the L1 trade again in 2020. Yeah, it's kind of like every major. There's a new one.
00:40:40
Speaker
you remember like the, what was it? Like the incentive package for like a chain where Avalanche had like 400 million they'd put yeah in yield to DeFi users. And then that would be like the...
00:40:54
Speaker
Yeah, that's why it's good. Or yeah then Harmony would come and... What else? Like all those random L1s you've never heard of suddenly have like a billion dollars in coins they want to give out.
00:41:07
Speaker
I feel like that's kind of where perp dexes are now. And then we just get a few winners out of that. and then I think there's definitely room for like multiple ones, especially if they have some differentiation. But I guess there's like too many just like with like everything yes it gets popular. It's just too many of it.
00:41:26
Speaker
and like you it did this It's not even like all of them are there yet. When Mega Eve launches, they will also have like a couple of new ones as well. I guess we said. I think it's kind of cool that we're moving in that direction. and and Yeah, because it's good for crypto overall if there's more competition in that space. I agree.
00:41:44
Speaker
So that's like a good thing, but we will see. It's the same for L1s, like, For the end user it's the best if like for example Solana is now fast chain like that's good cheap fast chain.
00:41:58
Speaker
That's why all the apps are or like most of the apps are on there now. It's better for the end user that you don't pay $150 a year of ethgas.
00:42:08
Speaker
I mean, if there's like a niche and there will always always be something that like fills it. Yeah. Bopoli, efficient market. And what is sooner or later? well What is like a general market outlook right now?
Market Outlook and Strategy
00:42:20
Speaker
End of 2025 moving into 2026? I talked to Ponzi earlier and we were both like, yeah, we just have to wait it out. Like, because I want to, at the moment, I want to buy back into hype.
00:42:35
Speaker
I don't have any right now, but With the way Bitcoin and the rest of the market's looking, I don't want to rush into the position, especially with all the people that have like huge borrowed positions or like huge long zone hype with liquidations at, what is it, like $23, $24, $22.
00:42:58
Speaker
You just have to wait for... Because there's so much overhang and people don't have an incentive to buy now because, oh, those people get liquidated if it goes down a bit more. So it's just waiting in now, I think, on Hype.
00:43:13
Speaker
And then Bitcoin. I mean, I still hold mine. i It's not really like a trading stack. It's more like I want to hold Bitcoin.
00:43:27
Speaker
So I think it can go down. I don't know, 20, 30% more from here, but it doesn't have to. Like I probably go back into perhaps trading if it goes like materially lower from here to like get more exposure again. But for now I'm happy just waiting in stables and some Bitcoin, some Solana.
00:43:57
Speaker
ah yeah And then a lot of JLP as well. So nowadays you like mostly just use perps to like increase exposure basically for bit of wish? Yeah. Unless I see something that I think is actually like a really good trade, but that's at the moment that... Very scarred.
00:44:18
Speaker
What do you think about Solana's future?
00:44:22
Speaker
oh I'm pretty bullish Solana. Because you always have the... ETH is so much higher. There's like a
00:44:35
Speaker
somewhat like a... i don't know how to say it. Like a chapter eight or... Yeah. Sort of. Comparative valuation yeah thing. I think ETH... No, this is a crazy take. I think ETH can actually go up.
00:44:50
Speaker
No, but i e I'm a big fan of ETH and Solana. It's like a greater good for... Like, it's what I believe in. should exist and all the other chains they basically like it makes sense for ETH and Solana to win with all the other chains popping up and then they're not really improving on the end level user like Solana improved on ETH but then Solana itself is like it's good as an end product. Like that's why the apps are building on there. Like PumpFun wouldn't have worked on ETH, but you don't need a new chain to have that. So I think them both
00:45:37
Speaker
They're like the cornerstone of like on-chain economy for me. Do you still believe in cycles? I think it's getting more and more difficult as we're like yeah moving on.
00:45:47
Speaker
I mean cycles, yeah, but like the boom bust type cycles where it just goes up hundred x and then it falls 90%. I don't know. I don't think... but I mean markets are always irrational, but I feel like that's going to be more muted.
00:46:05
Speaker
Yeah.
00:46:08
Speaker
It's more like, probably, here the way stocks are trading. I mean, they're also going, look at Nvidia is also going up like 50x or something. but No, but I think it's it's the same because like there's more of ah of a floor.
00:46:23
Speaker
Yeah. Like this institutional bit. Same as there is with stocks because it's kind of like, Bitcoin isn't like as backstopped as stocks through like the Fed and stuff maybe. Yeah. There's still like, steady money coming in.
00:46:34
Speaker
yeah yeah i don't think it is gonna crash back down to 20 30k it's more gonna be like slower yeah cycles with probably kind of like how indexes go up 50 percent down 20 up 50 down 20 more like that of course more much more volatility but the downside will be more muted at least.
00:47:05
Speaker
Unless we get some like big sailor sells it all or quantum computing yeah thing yeah backing like the Satoshi wallets. It will be, i don't know if that's ever going to happen, but I guess we'll just find out. We'll just like go into the next year. We have three more years of Trump, hope that he would like fix all of our lives and switch forever and then no one really knows what's going to happen.
Maintaining Humility in Success
00:47:28
Speaker
Legalize perps and everything. I want to talk a bit more about your... Because I think you have a really good mindset when it comes to to trading and also just like life in general because you have a very humble approach and the mostly like a very positive outlook on things.
00:47:48
Speaker
And which also like surprised me like a little bit because I remember, a don't know if I ever told you this, but like before we we knew each other, i kind of thought you were retarded. Yeah. Yeah, you told me. Because like ah the way that you're on Twitter is like a bit like similar to me actually, but it's like It's like hyperactive. Yeah. And like being a bit toxic sometimes, time yeah just having fun or whatever, because like that was fun to do. yeah But in real life, you're very chill and very like ah normal and humble. And like, I feel like you you didn't really ah change much with your your success in life.
00:48:27
Speaker
and i'm uh curious about your your like what what's what could you tell people to like improve their mindset and have a similar approach because i think it could be very useful yeah i think for me the biggest thing was just being
00:48:49
Speaker
Because I always played, for example, I always played CS with my close friends back home. And then if you talk to them every day, like, how are you going to change if they don't change and it's not really like I never saw myself. Oh, now, now I have money. Now I'm better than them. But like everything for me is still the same. I, I don't have to change anything for, for them. And then I also don't need to change for and anyone else. Like in 2021, like
00:49:20
Speaker
in twenty twenty one i felt like I was kind of losing that a bit because I mean, you're young, you make a lot of money. It's pretty easy. Like, yeah, so many people.
00:49:31
Speaker
Yeah. But then I also saw like the people around me, how old they became. And then I thought, yeah, maybe I'm, I'm here with all like those people.
00:49:43
Speaker
I don't want to be like them. Yeah. That's not how I was raised. That's not like what I, like, I have very big, like, I'm very ah
00:49:59
Speaker
Like, for myself, I expect a lot of myself. But I also expect a lot from other people. because i Because of that, I think that if I expect a lot from other people, then I also have to expect a lot from myself. So I just have to be a good version of myself, I guess. Yeah.
00:50:20
Speaker
So... I can only how will hold other people accountable if I also do the same for myself. That's actually. I think that's a really good way to think about it. I think many people kind of lose that in... Like, my ex-girlfriend always said, oh, you're so... You judge people way too much. You're so judgeful.
00:50:40
Speaker
But then I think, like, yeah, maybe I'm too... I judge people too much, but I do the same with myself. yeah So it's, like, fair in a way. Yeah.
00:50:53
Speaker
Because my my standards, I also apply to other people. But of course, I apply to myself I mean we could get into like a whole philosophical debate. That's like the good thing to do or whatever. like I mean at the end of the day you can't really control what other people do. and But you can control what you do and if you get better with with what you're doing. and i think you At the end of the day you have to live with yourself and not the other people.
00:51:18
Speaker
So you can judge them but you also have to judge yourself. here Because you're the one you're living with. yeah Well, I think you definitely have made a very good development for like a young person that has like made a decent amount of money. yeah Yeah, I think so too.
00:51:32
Speaker
Especially compared to like a lot of other people and how it affects them. And I think that's very, like, it's very good and important to remain humble. and Yeah. um And I think it's... I wouldn't say it's... but for me it kind of is easy because I saw other people and then i I asked myself like, do you want to be this guy or do you want to be this guy who's way cooler, yeah like down to earth?
00:51:57
Speaker
That's what I want to be. Like for example, Kobe. Would you rather, i don't know, have some random CT ct guy that made 2 million and then, i don't know, went to Thailand, lost it all on hookers and partying? Or do you want Kobe who's now like- Many such cases.
00:52:19
Speaker
Yeah. But for me, it was an easy choice. i want to be the like, yeah more like the the normal person. I get that. I think that makes a lot of sense. I mean, having fun with your money and whatever is also nice, but like... Yeah, I mean, I did too. Yeah. I... Like, all of 23 and a lot of 24, I traveled a lot.
00:52:41
Speaker
Like, I was barely home all of 23. Which...
00:52:46
Speaker
which i mean it was it was a lot of fun but it was also very expensive it's a good lesson to have but now like this year i'm mostly staying home spending normal amounts of money because it's also way better for your uh just for your mind i think because if you always flying around, you kind of lose the value of money, I think. Yeah, i feel I feel like that happens very easily in crypto. Well, you always want more like, yeah, I flew business class to Bali. Maybe next time I'll try a first class.
00:53:25
Speaker
No, no, that's very that so true. I think that's a good way to to think about it. Yeah. So now I'm more like my RL friends, for example, I want to go to like a techno festival with them. Maybe I'll buy them like the a ticket to that or that's like money so much.
00:53:46
Speaker
That's so much better spent money than, I don't know, having two more flights a year. Yeah. No, that's true. That's very true.
00:53:57
Speaker
I think my my last question is like, what keeps you what do you, what do you see your future
Future Aspirations in Crypto
00:54:01
Speaker
being like? What keeps you going? do you see yourself like, keep being a trader for the foreseeable future? you want to do something else?
00:54:11
Speaker
I think so, yeah. I thought about getting, like this was my, because when I was like 16, 17, my goal was to be like a hedge fund manager.
00:54:24
Speaker
which is kind of what I am for myself right now, but I still have that kind of, i want to get that experience at one point in my life, but I don't know what it would look like.
00:54:38
Speaker
Maybe I'll get like an internship. So yeah, just to get the experience, but yeah, trading is really fun to me. So I think it's what I want to do the rest of my life.
00:54:53
Speaker
Even if it's just by yourself or would you ever like consider joining some other people? like p think both is. Possibly both, yeah.
00:55:06
Speaker
Like I like having my own Like taking my own decisions with my own money. But I also like talking to other people about yeah trades. Like I talk to Ponzi a lot.
00:55:18
Speaker
The guests from three episodes ago. sometimes like was like now At this point it's like seven. Oh really? Yeah. I did a couple already but...
00:55:28
Speaker
Yeah, he's a cool guy. I think it's very valuable to like talk to different traders and also that have in crypto such an easy opportunity to have so many people. Yeah, because it also opens your mind to new things. Yeah. Like Nato, for example, he told me, yeah try this out.
00:55:44
Speaker
I think that's one of the best advantages of doing the podcast because I get to talk to so many traders and understand other things and also share some stuff with them and get to know them a bit better. And that's very...
00:55:57
Speaker
useful because like another like if you went to the traditional finance world and you need to get a degree or something or like it's way there's like a way higher barrier to entry for everything that you could yeah you can't just go and talk to like some suits on wall street yeah I mean, you could, but you're probably not going to get the same insight. I feel like the barrier is kind of, like, increasing a little bit, but it's still, like, in crypto, it's just way easier to get to know people. And, like, even if you just drop, like, you go to conferences, you meet some people whatever, it's just a very... It's not even the about getting, like...
00:56:32
Speaker
getting to know people and then them helping you in some way or anything like that more like seeing what's possible what how ah other people see the world yeah or like yeah sure crypto
00:56:47
Speaker
it's good to see other people's opinions yeah
00:56:52
Speaker
you form your own opinions but if you never test them against other people's it's hard to know if you're actually doing the right thing yeah like uh talking to ponzi it's it's like while i'm talking to him i realize yeah maybe this idea i had was stupid or yeah he's got a good point maybe i should change my approach
00:57:17
Speaker
it's nice to like have someone like test your your thought process and stuff and yeah because it can become quite like only being with yourself and being like with the market i mean obviously you get like proven right or wrong by the decisions you make but yeah sometimes you don't make a decision and then you don't really know and then it's like good to talk about that with other people or you get a new perspective or anything like that so that's pretty good I think that's like it for for what I wanted to talk about today. do you have any like final little final words of wisdom some maybe or like anything you want to pluck at the end?
00:57:54
Speaker
Everything to share. Let me think. Not really. Just for people. i don't know. To be If you make money, make sure you.
00:58:07
Speaker
actually, like especially if you make it quick, make sure that you put it, put some of it into safe investments or like safer investments and figure out your tax, figure everything out.
00:58:22
Speaker
Because I've seen so many people come and go in and then they make lots of money and then don't think about the downside risk. And I was one of them myself. So always secure your the status that you want to have if you make it and if you make life-changing there's a good quote that i read like if you make life-changing money then like take some out and actually change it yeah and yeah put some aside is it like you don't you don't have to take out 80 and even if you do it's probably not the end of the world yes that 20 can
00:58:59
Speaker
still do lots of good investments with because you started with way less. I guess that's a good lesson that you learned after like losing all of your money. Yeah, because this cycle I was much more conservative, taking money out all the time. And I remember tweeting like back during the like meme coin times, like if you make it big on meme coins, like just takes them out to at least like Solana, for example, and people are you why are you so bearish on this? Like, no, it's not being bearish. If you don't sell on the way up, there's no way you're going to sell on the way down because you think, oh, I had so much more. Why would I sell now?
00:59:42
Speaker
And then you can also use the liquidity that is actually there if like people are buying. and yeah It just makes a lot more sense to do that. Yeah, if you're not used to selling, then you won't get used on the way down. Yeah.
00:59:55
Speaker
Everyone always says that, but there's no way they're ever going to do that. I feel like selling in profit is just like psychologically a bit easier than like selling on the way down. Yeah.
01:00:06
Speaker
And it's also... if the chart is going up only and you sell into that you always sell the top yeah at the moment which is like what better part to investing is there yeah that's the best thing It's better to miss out on some gains than to like road trip everything.
01:00:25
Speaker
Yeah. Yeah, like if you if you keep being all in that thing, it's basically saying, yeah, I'm too stupid to have another good investment the future. Which just should never be the case. Or if you think you're too stupid, then put it in cash. Yeah, pretty much.
01:00:45
Speaker
I think that's good advice. I think that's a good time to a good point to to wrap it up. um Thank you very much for coming on. Thank you for inviting me. you know, once again, this was also like awkward as fuck because we like usually don't speak to each other this way. But I hope you are still enjoying this.
01:01:03
Speaker
I had lot of fun and yeah. Thank you everyone for listening.