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Culture Win at Cincinnati + Welcome Mats Out for UT & ISU's Visits to Houston
103 Plays1 year ago
Welcome to Episode 16 of the No Conference for Old Men Podcast.
The Cougars are now 21-3, 8-3 in the Big 12 & still atop the conference standings tied with Iowa St, after a "Culture" win at Cincinnati where it was Mylik Wilson's coming out party. We begin this episode with a summary of the Cincy game, highlight the other Big 12 games each of us identified last week, then transition to previewing the HUGE upcoming conference games this week with both Texas & Iowa St coming to town, and wrap up with a new set of Big 12 games of interest.
- No Conference for Old Men is available for free via Spotify / Apple Podcast / SoundCloud & the GoCoogs.com website; we're also available via the Republic of Football Podcast feed from the folks at Dave Campbell's Texas Football as their only basketball-centric offering
- Intro / Exit music: Ground Zero provided by FreeBeats.io
- Please follow us on https://gocoogs.com/old-men/
Recommended
Transcript
00:00:01
Speaker
Bye!
Episode Introduction and Houston Cougars Focus
00:00:06
Speaker
Welcome, folks, to the 16th episode of No Conference for Old Men, the podcast where three old guys are talking Houston Cougars basketball with a bit of book 12 coverage added in as well and proud members of the Goku's dot com network, the clear number one Houston Cougars content provider out
Houston Cougars Conference Standing and Game Previews
00:00:21
Speaker
there. As we get closer to March, our Houston Cougars are past the midway point of conference play and are tied for first place in the conference standings with Iowa State and upcoming opponent.
00:00:33
Speaker
We only had one game in Cincinnati this week where the team and specifically Malik Wilson made key culture plays to grind out another win on the road. But a big week ahead as both Texas and co-leader Iowa State come into town for a pivotal week of games that could determine the Big 12 leaderboard.
00:00:49
Speaker
So lots to discuss this week. And today it's all three of us back again with Tom Lydiak, former coach, Bill Walker, former player, and myself, Steve Chang, analytics guy for this week's episode. Usual format where we'll start off summarizing Houston's one game this week. Each of us will then provide a quick update on the key big 12 games we individually highlighted last week.
00:01:09
Speaker
Then move into a deep preview of the upcoming Texas and Iowa State games coming up and finally identify some additional big 12 games of interest Okay, so let's get right into it a physical win on the road in Cincinnati this week as we ready ourselves for a big week of games coming up and not only will these two games be tough ones and
00:01:31
Speaker
It's one of those brutally quick turnaround Saturday big Monday combos.
Cincinnati Game Recap and Strategic Insights
00:01:36
Speaker
In recapping the Cincy game, Tom, why don't you kick us off with your coach's thoughts on our 67-62 win at Cincinnati?
00:01:45
Speaker
Two things, Stephen Bill I saw was first story was foul trouble. Offensive rebounding was another story. And then of course, the play of Malik Wilson was probably a big story too. We got off to an excellent start offensively. I think I can't remember what it was. It seemed like we were up like 19.
00:02:07
Speaker
It looked like 19 to six and then foul trouble set in and Kelvin had, he had to sit down LJ and sharp and then.
00:02:17
Speaker
It was kind of like pulling teeth to get shots and get some points, but the offensive rebounding was really, really good. I think we had like five offensive rebounds in the first two or three possessions. And then Cincinnati's problem with keeping people off the boards, then continue in the Iowa state game, I believe it was last night or the night before got down, came out of the second half. I think we got down by seven.
00:02:43
Speaker
And Kelvin calls a timeout and then we start chipping away. And then in true Houston Cougar fashion, you know, we dug down deep and got a gritty road win and.
00:02:56
Speaker
A lot of people are griping about the offense or whatever. And I remember what I was listening to Ryan's podcast and Galen said that what do fans expect? What do they want the offense to look like? You take the Iowa State game last night against Cincinnati, both us and Iowa State playing on the road at Scentsy. They scored 68 points. We scored 67. We held them to 62. Iowa State held them to 59. The bottom line is it's a W and
00:03:24
Speaker
The name of the game has scored more points than the other team. You hear a lot of these talking heads on TV. Does, uh, you know, Houston have enough offense to win a national title? My question is, do some of these teams have enough defense to win a national title? It's just the way we play. I think I've covered this before, but we play complimentary basketball. Just like in football, you gotta run a game and a good defense. It's a complimentary.
00:03:50
Speaker
And that's what we do. We could probably score more points by coming down and jacking up some quick shots. But in the final analysis, it's gonna affect your defense. There's gonna be more transition buckets on the other end too. So we played to our identity. And that was just a classic University of Houston Cougar basketball went on the road. I'd take that any day, any day of the week twice on Sunday.
Player Performances and Defensive Highlights
00:04:14
Speaker
Yeah, no, you're spot on. It's interesting. You cover that. I'm going to get into a little bit of that as well in the analytics side, because there's been, I'd say even more noise this week around our offense on the boards, as well as with the talking heads, like you mentioned. So yeah, I'll get into it as well. So how about your thoughts from a player's perspective, Bill?
00:04:35
Speaker
Well, I may not totally agree with you, Tom and Steve, but not to the extent that, yeah, you're reading about it and seeing the over the top comments from others. First of all, with all the games that have gone on this week, it seems like that game was eons ago. But, you know, considering A,
00:04:57
Speaker
how hard it is to win on the road in the Big 12. B, how badly sense he needs to win to make the tournament. And C, just how hard everyone plays against us. This was a really good win. I thought we'd win by nine. And had it not been for a couple offensive lapses, I think we were
00:05:19
Speaker
clearly good enough to have won that game, similarly to how Iowa State was putting it to Cincinnati. Yeah, I mean, it was a good win.
00:05:29
Speaker
We out rebounded the top rebounding team in the conference by seven. And I think all seven of those, the margin was on the offensive end. The D was as it always is. It was outstanding. We only committed five turnovers in the game, which was great. I thought we'd turn them over a lot more and they only committed eight turnovers. If you watch the Iowa state game, it was just turnover central for them. I know.
00:05:56
Speaker
they have a lot of games that are like that, so they did handle the ball really well against us, which gave them a little while and kept it tight. Yeah, absolutely. It was a tight game, but we were better. We were tougher down the stretch. We came out so strong. We scored 20 points in the first 10 minutes, and then had Roberts not hit that layup right at the end of the first half, we'd only scored seven points over the second 10 minutes.
00:06:26
Speaker
I don't totally disagree with you, Tom. I mean, we are clearly a defensive and rebounding team, but I think when the competition gets stronger, seven minutes over half of a half against the much better teams in the tournament, it could be problematic.
00:06:43
Speaker
I'm not expecting us to come out and shoot like Kansas did against us, anything close to that. And quite honestly, we don't need to because we're so good defensively. We're so good on the boards that we don't need to be a great offensive team. But seven is fortunately we turned things around and won the game.
00:07:07
Speaker
Part of the offensive issues were the fact that, as you mentioned, Cryer and Sharp had foul trouble. And then, you know, the first person off the bench was Don and Kelvie even said, Don played a poor game. It took a little while and then, you know, Wilson came in and was just outstanding.
00:07:27
Speaker
I mean, I can't say enough good things about how Wilson played. It'll be interesting to see how things kind of proceed because it's a one game sample. Well, it's really a few game sample because Wilson's played a few good games in a row. But if you compare him to Dunn, he's a better defender. He's a better ball handler. He's a better rebounder. He's more athletic. He just doesn't quite have Dunn's offensive skill set, but he certainly covers
00:07:55
Speaker
the other aspects of the game. And so, you know, I'm interested to see how he continues to play. I've got to imagine he's earned himself some minutes going forward. Absolutely. See how well he takes advantage of that. Roberts had a really good game 20 and a monster game. Yeah.
00:08:13
Speaker
Shedd 16.4 and 4, 6 of 25 from the field. And, you know, if a few more of his shots go in, that maybe the margin's a little different. But I've heard a couple people make good points, including Calvin, who said that Shedd draws so much attention to him that when he's shooting and most of his shots, God, I want to say maybe
00:08:39
Speaker
Well, the vast majority of his shots were inside the arc. He draws the big guys to him. He draws a ton of attention. So even if he misses, it's putting Roberts, Tugler, Javier, it puts them all in a much better position to get offensive rebounds. And that's what we're doing against them. So it's almost a
00:09:02
Speaker
indirect I guess you could call it assist when shed penetrates and puts the ball up because we're in much much better position to offensive rebound and score and the two negatives I guess one as I mentioned Dunn and Kelvin mentioned a poor game I mean they're games when he looks like he's just not ready to play the other one was Cryer
00:09:24
Speaker
And it has nothing to do with scoring, but he picked up two quick. He came out right away. And then right at the beginning of the second half, he follows a three point shooter. So he picks up his third on a foul that shouldn't have occurred. And then it wasn't that long after that.
00:09:41
Speaker
reach and he picked up his fourth. And it wasn't a real rough foul or anything like that. But when you've got three already and you've still got most of the second half to go, you just have to play smarter. And the one good thing is that it allowed Wilson to play a lot more and he had a great game. So it worked out. In terms of fouls, we're going to commit fouls
00:10:07
Speaker
because we're so aggressive, we're aggressive defensively, we're aggressive rebounding, but some of the fouls that especially the third and fourth fouls that Pryor committed, he just shouldn't have been in a position to commit those fouls considering the fact that he was already in foul trouble. Thank God for Wilson on both ends. I can't say enough good things about him. And, and just lastly, sharp at the, right at the end of the game.
00:10:33
Speaker
I love the fact that he didn't cave to the pressure. They were pressing, they inbound the ball to him. He takes a quick look, scans the court, and just gets the ball down to Roberts, who has no one within 30 feet of him, and he dunks the ball to end the game. Overall, good win. Steve, before you get into your analytics, a couple of things I remember about Wilson. One is that I just feel like any time he wants, he can get like an eight to 10 foot shot.
00:11:04
Speaker
Basically anytime he wants and that could come into play when we have somebody scoring droughts or we, we need a basket. He's a guy that can just elevate over who's ever garden him and get that short eight to 10 foot shot. Now, whether he makes it or not, it's another question. Exactly.
00:11:21
Speaker
Another thing about Wilson is that and maybe this played into it and maybe it didn't but Kelvin was forced to play him for extended minutes this time because of foul trouble and maybe that gives him a longer leash and
00:11:37
Speaker
He played to see him play. I wouldn't say maybe not as tight. I mean, he was really put on the defensive end. He was dominant on the defensive end. No doubt. He forced tie-ups. He was aggressive, but he didn't commit fouls. I mean, he was just good at both ends of the floor. If he plays like that, he's going to have a significant role, I think.
00:12:03
Speaker
Yeah, Galen said he made eight culture plays. He counted them up. He mentioned that on the Cats podcast. You know, quite honestly, I will take half of that for the rest of the season. I mean, this was his breakout game. And you'll see that in the statistics here.
00:12:21
Speaker
The starters remain the same. Shed, Cryer, Sharp, Roberts, and Francis. As you guys had mentioned, this was a physical, topsy-turvy kind of game with each team going on runs. If you break it into quartiles like Ken Palm does, it really gives you a good sense of the flow of the game. We started out fast, as you guys had mentioned, dominated the first quartile, doubling up since he scored 20 to 10. Then Cincinnati basically one-upped us in the second quartile
00:12:49
Speaker
22 to 9 to go up 32 to 29 at the half We then again imposed our will in the third quartile of the game won that one 19 9 and then just held on for the 67 62 win with some inspired play by none other than Malik Wilson on both sides of the ball in the closing quartile of the game
00:13:10
Speaker
If you look at overall, Juwan Roberts was absolutely the star of the game with 20 points, 10 to 15 from the floor, eight rebounds, and a box score plus minus 11.1. But two big time mentions for this game. Tugler, which I'll cover first, he played 20 huge minutes with Francis, who also was in foul trouble. He had five points, three rebounds, two assists, two blocks,
00:13:35
Speaker
multiple disruptions in the lane and was a box score plus minus plus 13.2. But the biggest contributor was, as you both mentioned, Malik Wilson. He only had four points, but all four were at critical points in time. Seven rebounds, two assists, three steals, and a whopping box score plus minus 17.4. I'll take half of that every game the rest of the way and he'll get his minutes.
00:14:04
Speaker
He played a near perfect game. It was his breakout game, which he'd been actually building up to as we had all talked about going back three games since the KU game. Now, as you start looking at advanced analytics and it was basically what we expected on offense, we played an ugly.
00:14:22
Speaker
but effective game against a tough D in Cincinnati. Our effective field goal percentage was below standard at 41.3% versus 50% roughly our standard this year, but we protected the ball extremely well.
00:14:37
Speaker
with turnovers at just under 8%. And our standard for the year was 13.5, and we're number eighth in the country with turnover percentage. We also offensive rebounded at a phenomenal 41.5% rate. And on D, it was a textbook display by our Cougars. Cincinnati shot right at 43.2%, which is exactly our defensive
00:15:02
Speaker
effective field goal percentage on D. We blocked 13% of their two-point shots and limited their three-point shooting to 30% from the field. Basically, we played to standard on D. Though Cincy was motivated and protected the ball extremely well with only 13% turnovers, it wasn't enough to prevent the loss to our Cougars.
00:15:25
Speaker
You could tell our game really took a toll on them when they started turning the ball over, as you guys said, highlighted a ton in the following game versus Iowa State. And really before moving on, I'm going to get on my soapbox here a little bit on our offense and really reinforcing what Tom has highlighted there. There's just been a lot more criticism of this year's offense on the message boards this week and from fans and just clamoring quite honestly
00:15:55
Speaker
you know, for the team to spend more time practicing on that side of the ball to improve. I will say yes, our effective field goal percentage is the lowest it's been in five years since the COVID year when Sasser was a freshman in 20. But guess what, folks? We're the 14th most efficient offense in the country at this point, based on Ken Pong.
00:16:16
Speaker
You know, if you look at our personnel, we're smaller than we've ever been. And we don't have that many great shooters on this year's team. And that's not going to change due to practice. The brilliance of coach Samson is that he finds ways to combat our weaknesses to still be elite on offense. And again, I'm going to use that word elite or 14th in the country. That's elite by any metric. Everyone knows about our elite offensive rebounding over the years.
00:16:44
Speaker
allowing us to take more shots than our opponents to generate offense and that continues to be a huge contributor.
00:16:51
Speaker
in our efficiency. But how we've continued to evolve this season is in combating our poor shooting with protecting the ball better than we have ever done. As I had highlighted earlier, we're number eight in the country in turnover percentage. And we have never been that low since Coach Sampson has been here. We've been like in the 40s, 50s. We had one year in the high 20s. But this year at number eight, and that has allowed us
00:17:19
Speaker
to also not only manufacture quick points off of offensive rebounds, you also look at our steals. It's really gone up the last two years as well. And so again, we've got such a great coaching staff that evaluates what we've got, what our strengths and weaknesses are, and they figure stuff out. It may not be the prettiest offense. We're not going to be Arizona, BYU, or Purdue. In terms of how we manufacture those points, it's going to be
00:17:48
Speaker
maybe a more brute force.
00:17:51
Speaker
approach to offense, but just as efficient and effective. So, I mean, at this point, I'm going to get off my soapbox. And anyway, it was a great win for our Cougars at Cincinnati. They remain tied atop the leaderboard of the big 12 conference standings with Iowa state, who just happens again to be on our slate this week. So again, no time to rest on our laurels and the no conference for old men, big 12 with Texas coming in Saturday in Iowa state almost immediately after that for a big Monday matchup.
00:18:21
Speaker
But before getting to those games, let's do a quick summary of the Big 12 games each of us highlighted last week.
Big 12 Game Previews and Analyses
00:18:27
Speaker
Bill, you want to go first? Sure.
00:18:31
Speaker
preview a upcoming U of H opponent. So I had West Virginia at UT. UT won 94-58. Admittedly, with Jesse Edwards back and healthy, I thought UT would comfortably win, but since they have a tendency to play down to their lesser competition, I thought they'd win by 13. Oops. This game was over almost immediately, but
00:18:57
Speaker
The most amazing thing about this game, it's a, it's a one statistic that I'll pull. UT scored 94 points in the game. Can either of you, hopefully you haven't looked at the box score, could either of you guess how many points their bench scored? Hmm. I don't know. 10. 48.
00:19:16
Speaker
Four points. Their starters scored 90 of 94. Wow. I don't think I've seen that before. Unbelievable. I mean, Dylan DeSue, who I'm kind of becoming more and more enamored with, their 6'9", biggest player on the court, scored 27, including 7 of 10 from 3. Asmos, Tyrese Hunter scored 19 each.
00:19:40
Speaker
Weaver, the guy who brass shed the last time we played them, scored 13. And Dylan Mitchell scored 12. And Weaver and Asmos played exactly 30 minutes. No one else on the team got to 30. They were all in the 20s. Just crazy. I've never seen something where a team scored 94 points and got nothing off the bench. They shot well. UT shot 50%. They shot 47% from three.
00:20:10
Speaker
Edwards played a good game coming back. He had 17 points, nine boards, and Farrakhan, who was the starting point guard when he played them the first time, is now coming off the bench. He scored 11.
00:20:21
Speaker
No one else for them showed up. The other amazing thing was that UT was moving the ball like they do against us. They had 28 assists in that game, which is pretty strong. They also had eight steals, six blocks. They did commit 20 fouls, but this game was over instantly. And the good news is we are not West Virginia in any way, shape, or form. What happened last Saturday is not going to happen against us.
00:20:49
Speaker
Yeah, I certainly hope not. West Virginia just quit. They got down big early and they quit. That was it. Cool. How about you, Tom? Which game were you following? I had Baylor in Kansas. I actually didn't get to see much of the game. The game I want to talk about is when Kansas played tech. I watched all that game. Okay. And Kansas didn't have McCullough again. He's sitting out with a bone bruise.
00:21:17
Speaker
and tech just obliterated them. I think the score was 79 to 50. It was like Kansas or bill sales worst loss. Like I can't remember how long. A couple of things I gathered from that was Kansas is so much different at home than they are on the road. They're one in five on the road now with their only road wind being against Oklahoma state and
00:21:39
Speaker
We know how Kelvin adjusted when he had entries. It just, to me, it seems like Kansas without McCullough, they still try to play like they had McCullough in the game. They're still trying to push the ball up. It was just not good. And even bill self was tired of watching it. He got tossed and there are, what do you call it? A heckling? Uh, what do you call it? A Jacqueline hide. Just two different teams on the road and at home and.
00:22:08
Speaker
79 to 50, only scored 50 points. Fervy's kind of come down to earth a little bit. There was some talk about him being a first round pick, you know, kind of like how great he Dick was last year. But that talk is kind of kind of simmer down a little bit. KJ Adams really didn't have a great game. Dickinson didn't have a great game. Tech just had a good game plan. You got a credit coach McCaslin. Yeah. They were ready for Kansas. They had a few little plays designed.
00:22:36
Speaker
for Dickinson when he comes out there and guards the pick and roll. They got a law play on that and hats off to Texas Tech. Yeah, no doubt. I'm counting on that kind of a performance on the road when KU comes into town in March, so fingers crossed there. McCuller or not? Yeah, exactly. It's a bone bruise, so he shouldn't be out that long.
00:23:02
Speaker
Yeah, so for me, I zeroed in on the TCU at Iowa State game, which was really no contest as well. And if you look at the end score, really not indicative of how much Iowa State was in control during their 71-59 win. So actually the bench player, Curtis Jones, was the key for the win for Iowa State with 13 points on three of five from three-point range, three assists, two steals, and a box score plus minus 16.5.
00:23:30
Speaker
Though I am not a TCU fan, I was hoping they could pull out the road win at Iowa State just so, you know, we could get a little bit of separation from Iowa State in the standings. But ISU looks really good, limiting TCU to under 30% from three and Tennyson, their main threat from three was abysmal one of six from three point range.
00:23:54
Speaker
So great, great win for Iowa State and really looking forward for a tough tussle on Monday.
Houston vs Texas Game Preview
00:24:02
Speaker
So now let's get to the game preview for the upcoming UH Texas matchup. Maybe our last time playing UT in hoops in quite a while since their move to the SEC next season.
00:24:12
Speaker
We've already beaten Texas in Austin, 76-72 in OT earlier in the season. So it would be great to sweep them in our only season overlapping with UT in the Big 12. Tom, why don't you kick things off? And what do you think of the game coming up versus UT? First off, I'll say it. Horns down. All right. Softest fan base in America.
00:24:37
Speaker
They can go to a football country, SEC. Seriously though, Texas is actually probably playing better on the road in conference than they are at home. Shockingly. Yeah. Yeah. And, you know, it's going to be a tough game. Even though it's at home, Texas scored a lot of points to open up that second half when we played them. But here's the deal. Kelvin's a Hall of Fame coach. He and the staff have had an all week to prepare. You know, you know, they've gone through that game.
00:25:07
Speaker
They've gone through like every, every possession. And my guess is what we saw defensively that the first part of that second half is not going to happen again. So I see us winning this game, not going away. I think it's still going to be close. A lot of people think Texas has the best talent in the starting five in the conference. That'd be hard to debate. So, but you know, it's a team game. The sum is better than the parts and
00:25:37
Speaker
I'll see us winning this game. How about you, Bill, from a player's perspective? How do you view the game? Okay. Well, I'm not going to recap everything. Cause we just talked about West Virginia UT and obviously previewed it the week before. So things haven't changed a whole lot with them right now. They're 16 and eight. They're five and six in conference. They've moved up from 12th to ninth with the West Virginia blowout and Joel and already
00:26:06
Speaker
ESPN has Texas right now as a nine seed in the tournament. So despite 16 and eight, they're in right now. So, you know, as I've said, I do like the way Texas is playing. I really, again, like Dylan DeSue, he's just playing exceptionally well. Dylan Mitchell's playing very well. And asymus, I hate pronouncing that name. He's who he is a really good player.
00:26:36
Speaker
You know, they were ranked in the preseason and I think they've still got to win a few big games to make sure that they're in. It's just not going to happen on Saturday. 32 of UT's 70 shots against West Virginia were threes because they were shooting so well. And as I mentioned, they had 28 assists, which is just unreal. Defensively, I think when we double the post, you know, they're going to
00:27:04
Speaker
do what they did in the second half of the first game we played against them. They're going to pass quickly. They're going to get the ball to their shooters. And Asmos is going to penetrate. He's going to shoot threes off the dribble and play his game. You know, I think shed crier and
00:27:21
Speaker
Sharp, and maybe even Wilson, as we've talked about, will need to make Asmos just work his butt off for absolutely everything he gets. And we'll need to stay on top of DeSue. Offensively, I'm sure they're going to go back to having Weaver hounding Jamal as much as he can. So any help that Jamal can get from Cryer, from Sharp particularly,
00:27:45
Speaker
will be, I think, key. We move the ball. We get it inside to Roberts, Francis, and Tuggler. We get bench help from hopefully Dunn and from obviously Wilson, I think will be important as well. But the bottom line here is that we're better
00:28:03
Speaker
I think we're deeper, we're tougher, we're a smarter team. We've got the Fertitta Center, which I imagine will be insane for a nationally televised game against UT. And I disagree with you a little bit, Tom. I think we win this game by 14, 77-63. I think we hope- I hope you're a profit Bill. Profit Bill. Profit William. Profit Bill.
00:28:29
Speaker
Real quick here guys, real quick here. I wonder if they do the thing with Weaver on Jamal, like white on rice, if Kelvin will run shed off some screens, you know, he doesn't have to like spend a bunch of energy, you know, getting the ball back in his hands, but we have to have the ball in sheds hands somehow, some way.
00:28:52
Speaker
Yeah, absolutely. I mean, if you look at the advanced analytics, UH is still number one in Ken Palm versus Texas, who's at a very respectable number 26. So you're right, Bill. I mean, even the computers really, really still like Texas, even given their record.
00:29:10
Speaker
If you look at adjusted offensive efficiency, UH is 14th this week versus UT who's number 56 in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the flip side, we're, as everyone knows, number one, and we've been number one all season long in adjusted defensive efficiency.
00:29:28
Speaker
versus UT who's number 18th in adjusted offensive efficiency. On offense, Texas, unlike us, is a great shooting team at number 35 in effective field goal percentage, but has been turning the ball over a bit, ranking 188th in Ken Palm in turnover percentage, and are just okay at offensive rebound rate, ranking number 97th in Ken Palm. They're especially adept at shooting the three, ranking 17th in the country in three-point percentage.
00:29:57
Speaker
So our number six three-point percentage D will be put to the test again this game. Then you match that up against our number one effective vehicle percentage D that defends every shot.
00:30:09
Speaker
in our number one defense and block shots and number three in steals. And I expect us to keep UT from scoring over 70, especially at home. On the flip side, UT has played well in spurts on D, but has not been able to sustain consistent effort on that side with Terry at the helm. Their strengths are defending the two, where they're ranked 44th.
00:30:31
Speaker
just outside our top 40 great threshold, and blocking shots where they're ranked 36th in Ken Palm. A key for us will be our three-point shooting and how much we can turn them over to manufacture points in transition. Based on the metrics, this is projected to be a 12-point win by Ken Palm. I'm also predicting roughly a 12-point win, maybe a 73-61 win. So now let's get to the big Monday game preview for the subsequent ISU matchup at home.
Houston vs Iowa State Game Preview
00:30:58
Speaker
Bill, why don't you kick things off? What do you think about this game from a player's perspective? Yeah. A four game stretch for us of at Cincinnati, UT at home, which will be a zoo, Iowa state at home and at Baylor. I mean, that's a brutal four game stretch, but that's also the big 12 tech is playing Iowa state beforehand. I wish I could see that game so I could have a little more insight into how
00:31:27
Speaker
States playing coming into the game. But Steve, since you're going to be previewing that game, and I know you are so exact and perfect with your game analysis, I know you will, you will have the score, you will have the analysis, everything so perfectly that I won't have to worry about watching the game.
00:31:49
Speaker
After a relatively easy win at Scentsy, Iowa State, like you said before, Steve, they're eight and three, they're tied for first with us in the conference. Their last four heading into tonight, they're three and one, they won by five at Texas, won by 12 against TCU at home. The nine point win at Scentsy and they kicked off these four games with a two point loss at Baylor. So now they're playing well, all
00:32:18
Speaker
pretty close games, but they're playing well. They're like us. They're a decent team offensively. I imagine they're probably they've got to still be top three in Ken Pab defensively. But yes, number three, you know that better than I do. From what I've seen from ISU, they do tend to turn the ball over. And so I think that's an area where we can take advantage of them. They're solid rebounding team, 17 assists per game, which is really strong, 11 steals per game.
00:32:47
Speaker
So we're going to need to be like we are and not turn the ball over their guards. Keyshawn Gilbert and Tam and Lipsi are good at both ends of the court. They're the leading scores, but it's 14 and 13 points. So this is a really balanced team. Since the four point win over us, Mom Silovich who hit that. Turn around.
00:33:14
Speaker
Yeah, turn around shot to beat us. He's now moved up to their third leading scorer. So he's getting, he's getting the ball more and he's hitting some shots again from Milwaukee. Freshman too, right? Yes, correct. I think the bulk of the minutes will continue to go to basically their top six players. So, you know, I think if, if shed crier sharp can kind of control their guards,
00:33:41
Speaker
We contain their dribble penetration. We don't go, hopefully, through any prolonged offensive slumps. We protect the ball, and we stay aggressive on the boards, which we always do. I see Kelvin and the players absolutely exacting revenge, the Fertitta crowd as well. And I think we win this game 68-57. I don't think it's going to be as close as a lot of people think.
00:34:08
Speaker
I think we'll take care of business. Yeah, I hope you're right. I definitely hope you're right. How about you, Tom? How are you viewing this game from a coach's perspective? You know, Iowa State, interesting team and non-conference. It was kind of difficult to see how good they were. I wouldn't say they played a cupcake schedule, but they really didn't have, you know, a lot of marquee teams on their schedule. But now we know what type of team they are, you know, 11 games into the Big 12.
00:34:38
Speaker
Very good defensive team. When we played them last time, we got down 14 to nothing. And it's almost like we were shocked or surprised that somebody came at us that tough. They spring some double teams on you. It's all planned.
00:34:53
Speaker
I'd like to see how they do it, but it looks like random traps. Sometimes you'll dribble to the corner and all of a sudden they'll just trap you. We had problems with that last time. I don't think we'll have problems with it this time, but a very good solid defensive team. Taimon Lipsi, very, very Jamal shed like.
00:35:14
Speaker
He's short stocky, built low to the ground, low center of gravity. He's just a disruptor defensively. He has really quick hands, gets his hands on a lot of balls that lead to deflections and steals. Their big men are role players, Rob Jones and Trey King. And then they bring in Hassan Ward, who's just like a pogo stick off the bench. These guys are really good rim protectors. Well, I see this as a close game.
00:35:44
Speaker
I see us winning, but not by much. You know, Iowa State last time, Rob Jones, who's like a 47% free throw shooter, he hit all four free throws. The joke from the Iowa State fans was that when he was hit hard, you know, knocked to the ground that he hit his head and he forgot how to miss free throws. He missed four from four. And then every time I see Iowa State play, he just clanks one after one after another. Trey King hit a huge three in that game.
00:36:13
Speaker
Yeah, that was like his only like his first and second three of the year. My syllabus, you guys mentioned that the fade away dirt and whiskey like dagger. I don't think we're going to win a double digits. I just don't see it. I would say it's just too tough.
00:36:28
Speaker
You know, you have to have a certain mental toughness to win on the road, and Iowa State definitely has that. Kind of like a mirror image of us. I kind of see it coming down in the last couple of minutes and coming down to a couple of plays that we make. And I ask you, Steve, since you're the analytics guy, is that I'm sure they do this in baseball, but you get a guy that's maybe a 265 hitter, but it's when he gets his hits. He might go one for five, but that one hit is a crucial hit.
00:36:58
Speaker
Another guy might go two for five and, you know, have like a double in the home run, but they come when, you know, really the team doesn't need them. Is there a type of stat for like that basketball? Because it certainly seems that we have those type of players where the shooting percentages might not be that great, but when it comes time to hit a huge shot, it seems like somebody always comes through the clutch, whether it's Jamal, LJ, or Emmanuel.
00:37:24
Speaker
Yeah, I'll have to take a look at it. I'm pretty sure Bart Torvic has it. I haven't been raising those, but that's an interesting question that I'll look more into for next week's episode.
00:37:36
Speaker
One stat I will throw out there, and there's nothing to support this, but I would say that the Fertitta Center gives us a five to six point advantage over anyone we're playing. So I would say consider us playing Iowa State on a neutral floor, what you think the score would be, and then add five to six points to that.
00:38:02
Speaker
Yeah, I think that's an actor's depiction, especially this year. We've done so well at home. It just feels even more so than when we were back in the American. Well, Galen thinks we're going to kick the shit out of him when I mistake comes in on Monday. A whole piece of profit.
00:38:19
Speaker
I agree with them. Yeah, we should definitely be motivated because we let that first one slip away. So if you look at advanced analytics, again, UH is number one in Ken Palm. ISU is a very respectable number eight in the country. Again, we're 14th in adjusted offensive efficiency, while they're number three in adjusted defensive efficiency. Flip side, we're number one in adjusted defensive efficiency, while ISU is number 45 in adjusted offensive efficiency.
00:38:49
Speaker
This is another one of our mirror games. So as you guys had highlighted, we lost a tough one at ISU 57-53 earlier in the season where we really had our chance to win late. They're a good shooting team focused on two-point shooting with effective field goal percentage at number 62 in the nation and are also good at protecting the ball. Ranking at 95th in turnover percentage and offensive rebounding at
00:39:17
Speaker
58th in the country, according to Ken Palm. What they do best on offense is manufacture quick points off our turnovers with their number one, according to Hasselmetrics. Then you match that up against our number one effective field goal percentage D that defends every shot. Again, we're number one in blocking shots and number three in steals. And I really like our chances of really shutting them down, especially at home.
00:39:41
Speaker
On the other side, ISU is just exceptional on D and on par with us on that side. The best thing they do is for forced turnovers and they're number one in turnover percentage and steel percentage on the defensive side of the ball.
00:39:57
Speaker
and defending the two where they're 29th in the country. So the Cougs just need to hit their threes, protect the ball on offense, which we've been doing exceptionally well this year, and we should be fine. On the road, based on Ken Palm, this should be around an eight-point win for the Cougs at home.
00:40:16
Speaker
I'm kind of like Tom at this point, a little skittish with this game. And so I'd be ecstatic with a four point win to take sole possession of first place in the standings. These two games, along with Baylor to follow, represent the most important three game stretch, in my opinion, for this season, just like you had mentioned, Bill as well. Can't wait to see how it all unfolds now.
00:40:42
Speaker
is we go to other big 12 games. What are other games that fans should pay attention to this week that are of interest? Tom, you want to go first? I'll stick with Kansas. They're going on the road again. They're going to play OU on Saturday. I'm actually thinking KU is going to win this game, especially if they have McCaller. I just don't think he's going to be out much longer, you know, bone bruise, couple of games. I was kind of thinking one game and he'd be back in, but there had that quick turnaround.
00:41:11
Speaker
KU at Oklahoma, Oklahoma. They need to start winning. They do. They got put up to number 25 again. And then I think they lost the other day. So I'm not sure if they're in the top 25 anymore. But anyway, big game for OU for their tournament chances. KU, another big game for them just to see if they can win on the road, you know, and we'll see how if their road woes continue or they get things figured out.
00:41:39
Speaker
Cool. How about you, Bill? Which game are you going to be focused on? Well, I typically take an upcoming U of H opponent, but you beat me to it, Steve. So I'm going with quite honestly the third best game on the schedule, which is TCU at Kansas State. And with the regular season kind of heading down the stretch and the fact that
00:42:04
Speaker
We've pretty well previewed the entire big 12, pretty extensively, almost, I won't say ad nauseam, but, but pretty extensively. It's probably time to view teams that may be on the bubble for the NCAA tournament. Yeah. Good point. These two definitely qualify. I mean, right now, TCU's 17 and seven, six and five in conference are tied for six.
00:42:29
Speaker
with BYU, Joe Lenardi currently has TCU as a 10 seed. So if they're not on the bubble, they're certainly adjacent to it. Their last four, they beat Tech by seven, good win, lost to UT by 11, lost at Iowa State by 12, and beat West Virginia by 16. Emmanuel Miller still leads them in scoring and rebounding.
00:42:54
Speaker
TCU is just a deep team. They've got five players who scored 10 or more points a game, nine players who play more than or play 17 minutes or more. So it's a deep team. They like to get out and run.
00:43:07
Speaker
And they like to they move the ball. Well, they produce 18 assists per game on average. So that's really strong. However, they also commit 13 turnovers a game. They're shooting a solid 48% from the field and 35 and a half percent from three. So not a bad shooting team. Like I said, they're barely in the tournament.
00:43:30
Speaker
But that for them, that should improve. They've got UCF at home coming up, Cincy at home coming up, West Virginia on the road. You know, they win three of those and maybe one of their other four other difficult games. So they go four and three there.
00:43:48
Speaker
21 and 10, they maybe win one game in the conference tournament they're in. They're going to get in. No issue there. Kansas State, on the other hand, 15 and nine, five and six in conference tied for ninth with Texas. Their last four, they lost to Oklahoma by 20. They lost to Oklahoma State by three. They beat Kansas in overtime by five. And then they came back and lost at BYU by six.
00:44:14
Speaker
This team, as always, is led by their big three, the shooting guard, Cam Carter, 16 and five, five rebounds, point guard, Tyler Perry, 15 and almost five assists and small forward, Arthur Columa, 14 and a half points and 7.2 rebounds. They're a poor shooting team, as always, 43 percent from the field, 31 percent from three, and they are just a turnover machine. They make bad mistakes with the ball and they turn the ball over like crazy and
00:44:44
Speaker
And they're led in turnovers by the aforementioned big three with eight and a half turnovers per game between the three. Kansas state's final seven games include games at Texas, at Cincy, at Kansas, and at home, this is Iowa state among others. That's brutal. Yeah, exactly. They've got to beat TCU in this game and they probably got to pull another
00:45:10
Speaker
couple of upsets and maybe win a game or two in the big 12 tournament to have a shot. So I guess what I'm saying is basically they're out. However, I am picking them to win this game at home 72 68. Nice. I mean, so are they currently projected?
00:45:29
Speaker
No, Kansas States, no, they're out. I mean, they're only 15-9. Okay, so I'm picking the tech versus ISU game. Again, two schools in contention at the top of the standings. Another game with a contrast of styles, which I love. Exceptional offense in tech versus exceptional defense in ISU.
00:45:52
Speaker
ICU actually plays a bit quicker this season, which continues to surprise me while tech like us just slows things down to a crawl. Tech has been really efficient on offense. They're number 11th in adjusted offensive efficiency based on Ken Palm, especially good from three where they're ranked 23rd in the country.
00:46:11
Speaker
while ISU has been stifling on D, ranking third in the country as we've covered, but exploitable from the three-point range where they're ranked a lowly 185th in three-point percentage defense.
00:46:25
Speaker
Based on the metrics, this should be a roughly seven point win for ISU at home. But based on matchups, I'm kind of projecting if tech can protect the ball. I believe tech has a chance to make some threes and maybe eke out a win by two. So we'll see what happens there.
Podcast Closing and Audience Engagement
00:46:45
Speaker
So that's it for this episode 16 of No Conference for Old Men podcast. Hope you all enjoyed it. And again, would really appreciate it if folks would follow, subscribe, or collect our podcast, depending on your podcast platform of choice. We are also available via the Republic of Football podcast feed from the folks at Dave Campbell's Texas Football as the only basketball-centric podcast or at the gokooks.com website for those that prefer to digest the content that way.
00:47:13
Speaker
We appreciate the continued support from all. Also, please give us a follow on our Twitter account, no conference for old men. Thank you all again for listening and episode 17 should come out next Thursday. So please be on the lookout to download and listen as the episode drops. Take care, everyone.