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A Statement Blowout Win over Tech to Ease a Tough Loss at TCU
96 Plays1 year ago
Welcome to Episode 12 of the No Conference for Old Men Podcast.
The Cougars are now 15-2, 2-2 in the Big 12 Conference after a demolition of Texas Tech, & ranked #5 in the AP Poll. We begin this episode with a summary of the TCU & Texas Tech games, highlight the other Big 12 games each of us identified last week, then transition to previewing the Cougars' upcoming conference games this week vs UCF & BYU, and wrap up with a new set of other Big 12 games of interest.
- No Conference for Old Men is available for free via Spotify / Apple Podcast / SoundCloud & the GoCoogs.com website
- Intro / Exit music: Ground Zero provided by FreeBeats.io
- Please follow us on https://gocoogs.com/old-men/
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Transcript
Introduction to the Podcast and Hosts
00:00:05
Speaker
Welcome, folks, to the 12th episode of No Conference for Old Men, the podcast where three old guys are talking Houston Cougars basketball with a bit of Big 12 conference coverage as well, and proud members of the Goku's.com network, the group that provides the deepest and broadest coverage of Houston Cougars content around.
00:00:22
Speaker
Now into our second full week of Big 12 play, our Cougars were left navigating unchartered seas at 1-1 in conference play after a tough loss at ISU where we had a lead late. There was no rest for the weary as our Houston Cougars had to travel to TCU for another rock fight on the road a few days later.
00:00:40
Speaker
And for a second game in a row, we had the lead late, but couldn't hold on versus TCU. Going down on the road 68, 67 with a one in two conference records staring in our face and a ranked Texas Tech at the top of the standings coming into the Fertitta center last night.
00:00:58
Speaker
But after some brilliant coaching and cajoling from Coach Sampson, he had his Houston squad primed and ready for a statement 77-54 home win over Texas Tech.
Houston Cougars' Recent Games Recap
00:01:08
Speaker
So today we are again all here with Tom Lydiak, former coach, Bill Walker, former player, and myself, Steve Chang, analytics guy.
00:01:15
Speaker
for this week's episode. And we'll start off summarizing the two conference games played by our Houston Cougars this past week. Each of us will summarize the key Big 12 game we individually highlighted, then move into a deep preview of the upcoming UCF BYU games coming up this week. And finally, highlight some additional Big 12 games each of us will be paying attention to.
00:01:37
Speaker
Okay, so let's get right into it. Lots of covers. We again faced two Hardo's defensive teams this past week. Just seems like a recurring theme in the Big 12, huh guys?
In-depth Analysis of Houston vs TCU Game
00:01:47
Speaker
In recapping the two games played, let's start with the TCU game. So Tom, what are your coach's thoughts on our lost TCU?
00:01:56
Speaker
Before I get to a coaching standpoint, just from a standpoint, the TCU game, like the ISU game, I thought once we got the lead, we were going to pull it out. As Cougar fans, past couple of years, we've won more of these games than we lost. Somebody always stepped up, whether it was Tremone Mark or Jamal. The TCU game, we didn't, we just, like Coach Sampson said, we peed it down our leg. So from a fan standpoint, those are gut wrenching. I can't imagine what it's like for the coaching staff to
00:02:26
Speaker
to lose games like that, knowing that you had a lead late, uh, you know, the ISU game down 14, nothing. We claw back. We take a lead by one, you know, the TCU game, we have a lead in the first half. We give it up and then it kind of seesaws at the end. And, you know, we take a four point lead late in the game. It looks like we're going to pull this one through. We allow three pointer to Tennyson.
00:02:49
Speaker
which gets me to our defense in the second half. I just, you know, we gave up 39 points the first part of the second half. I just didn't think our defense was very good at all. It was uncharacteristic. We started the game off in typical fashion, kind of a slow start on offense. You know, our offense still looked like, you know, five cats trying to hump a basketball. Very, very ugly. We had a 23 to 11 lead, and we let them back in the game.
00:03:19
Speaker
Two things that contributed to that I think was she had getting a second foul. And for a veteran player like Jamal, the second one he picked up was not good. It was, like I said, very uncharacteristic. He was chasing a guy. He had made a, he had made a mistake. You know, he's chasing the ball down and he reaches in and grabs the guy's arm. So he's got to meet assistant coach the rest of the half. That definitely had an effect on TCU being able to get back in the game.
00:03:45
Speaker
And then we just started fouling too much. We had 15 fouls in the first half, you know, we're up 23 to 11 and now we're just hacking them and fouling them. They're going to go into the free throw line. They're making their free throws. So.
Performance and Strategy Analysis
00:03:57
Speaker
that I just didn't think very smart play by shed and very smart plays by us just foul on too much. And I know the way we play the way we're, you know, we're aggressive on defense. Yeah. We're always, we're always going to have a certain amount of fouls, but 15 is a lot. That was kind of my synopsis of the first half, another key play in the game. You know, Damien gets the end one, but he, then he gets the technical foul. So instead of being a big,
00:04:23
Speaker
Momentum booster, it was just deflating. I think we ended up only getting one point over TCU in that poll ordeal. LJ shooting was continued in that game. We did go to a four guard lineup quite a bit again, and I thought TCU made a concerted effort to get the ball inside. We went to our four guard lineup, 31-29 at half. I mentioned earlier, we gave up 39 in the second half. A couple of key plays in the game. I went back and I looked at some
00:04:51
Speaker
at some film and kind of broke it down. Trevion Tennyson, he's almost a 49% three-point shooter. We allowed him to shoot, to make four, and he never had to dribble. It was open-looks. You know, he was just standing shoot. The first one in the second half, we actually had Francis on him.
00:05:11
Speaker
And there wasn't even a screen, you know, he passed the ball and he got, he kind of just drifted to the slot and they pass it right back. And Javi air was probably 15 feet in the paint when he got the ball. And, you know, it was just like shooting ducks in a pond. I mean, bill, you could have made that shot.
00:05:28
Speaker
Cause I mean, there was nobody guarding them. I mean, Javier was Javier was fit. He was literally 15 feet in the paint when Tennyson threw the ball and drifted to the slot, you know, a job here just drifted right into, you know, right in the middle of the paint and they just threw it right to him and he drained a three. And then.
00:05:45
Speaker
The other two 3C had, TCU had been running this same little set all game long where the ball goes back to the slot and then the five minutes steps up and sets a screen. And on two key possessions where Tennyson hit threes, we didn't play correctly. One time it was Jamal.
00:06:02
Speaker
One time it was a manual, they're guarding the ball. They didn't fight to get over the top. They hit the screen and they just stopped instead of fighting over the screen and applying pressure on the hip and making it difficult to make a pass. And then both our big men on those two three point shots didn't step up to the line of scrimmage. So what that ended up being was the ball handler was able to throw a dart.
00:06:25
Speaker
Direct-line pass which there's no way you have time to recover on that You know one of our guys
Recap and Analysis of Houston vs Texas Tech Game
00:06:30
Speaker
in the paints got it tagged a roller so basically when the ball gets passed you have two on one on on the weak side and tennis and end up being the guy in the corner and they just throw the one more, you know, it's swing swing shot and that second one was the killer cuz Dunn had hit a three to put us up 67 63 and
00:06:50
Speaker
And then we come back and then Tennyson hits that three in the corner and that put him, you know, now we're 67-66 and it's game on. So Kelvin's a Hall of Fame coach. He's got a great staff. I'm sure they looked at this and they saw it and they probably just kind of demoralizing knowing that those shots could have been. That was kind of my synopsis of the game. Don't want to take all the material away from you, Bill.
00:07:18
Speaker
We'll talk about the last sequence of the game. You know, we're up one. Juwan misses a one in one. That was, that was a killer. He misses the one in one. TCU comes down. We kind of look like we're in a three, two zone, but we were just matched up man. I think it was. And Damien just gets caught staring at the ball. That's middle school stuff. And the man he was guarding just goes back door and scores. And then of course.
00:07:45
Speaker
She had imbalanced the ball to Damien. We got two timeouts left, but Kelvin in the press conference said we practice this all the time and the plan is get the ball to shed. Everybody else runs the sideline. We should have had two guys on one sideline, one other perimeter on the other sideline, and then the five man just runs down, gets in the dunker spot. So if shed drives, big man comes over to help, he can dump it off just like we did. I think it was the
00:08:12
Speaker
Memphis game or the Wichita State game where we went on Roberts put back you guys remember stever bill I am all drove and any he laid it off to To Roberts, but anyway make a long story short shed in bounce the ball for some unknown reason He doesn't get it back and it looks like he's not even calling to get it back and we all saw what what happened there there was a
00:08:36
Speaker
A lot of discussion on some of the message boards and such about Calvin not calling a timeout, but here's the deal. TCU doesn't have timeouts. If you call timeout, you allow TCU to play any defense they want. They're probably going to go to like a one, two, two, three core court press. It could be straight zone. It could be where they're just matching up man to man. You don't know what it is. So it, it slows your advance down. If you don't call a timeout, you know, they're man to man.
00:09:03
Speaker
And you get the ball to shed, he just goes with the ball. So regardless, it was a loss. It was kind of a soul crushing loss, wrenching. Yeah, it was unchartered kind of territory for U of H basketball fans to lose two very close games on the road. But you know what? That's the Big 12. And that's what we signed up for.
00:09:25
Speaker
I'd rather have these games than go over to East Carolina one by 42. Yeah, absolutely. Now that's great coaching insights on the game. Bill, how about yourself? What was your view?
00:09:37
Speaker
Well, first of all, it was Wichita State time. Oh, was it? OK, let's just answer you. You know, they're they're positives and negatives from this game. But I'll tell you, this game left me really frustrated. I don't necessarily buy into the it's the big 12. You know, we have to expect things like this.
00:09:57
Speaker
I said earlier on in earlier podcasts, be prepared. We're going to lose games. So I know that we're going to lose games. But when we're up four points with under a minute left, I don't care if it's the big 12. I don't care who it is. I don't care if it's home or road. We're a good enough team. We're extremely well led. Up four with under a minute, we shouldn't lose.
00:10:21
Speaker
You've addressed the Tennyson shot, the Dunn falling asleep and letting Miller go back door on him to score. And then I think Dunn just seemed a little shell shocked. He got the ball, you know, dribbled up the court and
00:10:38
Speaker
and then kind of hesitated and, you know, made me flashback a little bit to Chris Webber against Carolina in the championship game. Well, if they've done what I did, what Chris Webber did, we actually had two timeouts. That's actually a good point. That's yeah, that's a very good point. Yeah.
00:10:59
Speaker
I saw a lot of the stuff about we should change our, the coaching style. Calvin should change what he's doing. And you know, people, people wanting to jump overboard. I mean, that, that's insane. It's utterly insane. This, we should not have lost this game. And I was just, I'm still irritated about it, but you know what? It's, it's short term. We're going to be okay.
00:11:24
Speaker
And I'll just, Bill, I'll just interject one more time and then I'll let you finish. But those last two three pointers by Tennyson could have been prevented. And for some reason, we just, we didn't play the pick and roll correctly. And there was no pressure from the guard guarding the ball or the big men stepping up. And we allow that, that dribbler just to make a hook pass to the other guy in the slot on a direct
Big 12 Upcoming Games Preview
00:11:50
Speaker
line. And I don't care who you are.
00:11:52
Speaker
You're not going to recover if you allow those type of passes and yeah it that to me was the Demoralizing part is that you were usually probably the best in the country at garden to pick and roll Yeah, anyway, you can go ahead and finish bills tough. Yeah, I mean the positives
00:12:10
Speaker
were number one, I think, was Roberts. I mean, 20 points, 13 boards, four blocks, five assists. He played a great game. And Tom, I'm not as, and Steve, I'm not as upset about the 15 fouls in the first half, all the fouls for the game, because we commit a lot of fouls. We're, we're aggressive and we've talked about this. We commit a lot of fouls.
00:12:34
Speaker
But overall, you know, we're an aggressive team and it's going to happen. What I don't like is when Roberts is going to the basket and he ends up flat on his back on the baseline and there's no whistle blown. I mean, if you're going to call a tight game, call a tight game.
00:12:54
Speaker
You don't let certain things just go. And Roberts should have had 25 points. And maybe he doesn't miss that one and one at the end of the game if they call a couple of the fouls on his drives in the paint, because he would have shot some free throws before he went to the line. And so I just couldn't believe that Roberts couldn't get a call. I mean, some other stuff, fine. But I mean, it's down low. It's big man hitting big man.
00:13:21
Speaker
God, that just, but I was surprised at that. But that's life on the road in the big 12, right? You're not going to get those calls, right? It's very one sided, right? It shouldn't be that one sided. Those were
00:13:36
Speaker
He was hit actually in Kelvin's press conference. Someone asked him about it, specifically about Juwan getting hit. And Kelvin said, I'm not going to say anything. But he said to the guy who asked him the question, I'm really glad you brought it up though. So he was in complete agreement. And I mean, those were not touch fouls. Yeah, those were not touch fouls. Those should have been called.
00:14:01
Speaker
shed did not have a shed first half and by that i mean about five and a half minutes because he didn't even close yeah he came out and he was unbelievable in the second half so he played well uh until the end of the game actually done done was the one that really
00:14:20
Speaker
kept us in it in the first half after things started to fall apart. He wasn't forcing things. He wasn't putting his head down. He was getting inside. He was getting shots off. He was drawing fouls, pump faking, getting hit, putting shots in. He had a strong first half. He really kept us alive after shed went out.
00:14:42
Speaker
They're the number one fast break team in the country and they did not have a fast break point until well into the second half. So we did a good job there defensively and that's no surprise. We always do. And I thought Javier on the boards and playing inside, I thought he played a solid game as well. He did. Absolutely.
00:15:03
Speaker
The negatives and Tom, you've alluded to pretty much all of these. Cryer two of 14 from the field, one of seven from three. It looks like he really needs to have shed on the floor to get him the ball where he wants it and to get him going and to help him create good shots. Well, that's about all I'll say about that. Yeah.
00:15:28
Speaker
The other thing I thought, and this led to a lot of the 15 fouls, I thought the guards created too much dribble penetration.
00:15:37
Speaker
They did a great job on Emmanuel Miller, their leading scorer. They allowed Anderson, they allowed Jamir Nelson to penetrate and draw fouls. And I think if the opposing guards weren't allowed to penetrate like they were, I think the fouls would have been much less and the score would have been much lower.
00:15:59
Speaker
The other thing I took this note, and this was during the first half when shed was out, we are, I don't want to say completely devoid, but we need some help and backup point guard and yeah.
00:16:13
Speaker
They began to pressure the guards at the eight minute mark they pressed. We didn't commit a lot of turnovers in the game, I think only seven, but we struggled offensively and exemplified how much we need shed. Kelvin also mentioned, look, we win this game if we hit shots. You don't often hear Kelvin talking about offense more than defense.
00:16:36
Speaker
I will say this about big 12 play, we can't shoot 42% and 22% from three and win games. We were four of 18 from beyond the arc. They were eight of 15. That's tough. We came back against tech and shot very well. So I know we'll get to that show. We'll get to that. That's about all I've got.
00:16:56
Speaker
Yeah, and
Houston vs BYU Game Analysis
00:16:57
Speaker
I don't want to burn too many cycles. I feel like we're spending so much time on our loss this week. But the starters remain the same. And I think it's going to stick that way, is my guess for the rest of the season. As you guys stated, we dug ourselves a hole early with Shed getting a second foul. And it was at the 14-23 mark of the first half and was forced to sit the remainder of the half.
00:17:18
Speaker
But as you guys also highlighted, the team started strong, taking a 23-11 lead with both Roberts and Dunn carrying the load. Cryer had to assume the point guard duties the rest of the half, which likely contributed a bit to his shooting woes for the game. Silly fouls let them back in the game where we only led by two at the half. And really the wheels came off for us in the third quartile of the game.
00:17:43
Speaker
where we missed defensive assignments on their handful of three point shooters. I mean, they are not a three point shooting team. I mean, they're a fast break two point shooting team. And we did a great job at stopping that. Unfortunately, we let they only have two good shooters from three and they kept getting open looks.
00:18:02
Speaker
which was a shame. Roberts and Dunn were the stars for UH. Roberts with 20 points, 13 boards, and he was a player box score plus minus plus 20 for the game. Dunn had 17 points, 5-8 from the field, was a plus 13.5 for the game. And though Shed was a plus 9.4, and we have praised him to no end this season, his absence in the first half
00:18:25
Speaker
and blown defensive assignments in the second really hurt us. And then Cryer, as you guys have mentioned, only had five points and was a minus 6.4 player box score plus minus. From an advanced analytics perspective on offense, our effective field goal percentage was just bad at 45.3%, well below our norms for the season, and especially bad from three-point ranges you highlighted, Bill, at 22.2%.
00:18:52
Speaker
But we did protect the ball extremely well. I know that was emphasized since there are a fast-breaking team in TCU, which was super important. And we offensive rebounded close to standard, which is going to be an ongoing challenge given the quality of play in the Big 12. On D, to be honest, we did not play well at all. TCU shot well with 51% effective field goal percentage, where we've been only allowing 41.2% for the year.
00:19:22
Speaker
force them to 17.8% turnover, which is below our normal rate as well. And that's going to be a challenge in the Big 12. But boy, three-point shooting, which was not the strength of TCU's, killed us, where they shot 53% from three-point range. So just a killer. I mean, given a Big 12 opponent, if we're being honest with ourselves, it was our D that let us down in this game, especially from three-point range. It was, again, Tennyson and Miller.
00:19:51
Speaker
Only two guys on that team that could shoot that were open on noon. But then there's no time to dwell on losses in the Big 12 because big games come quick and number 25 ranked Texas Tech with their conference leading 3-0 record was coming to town yesterday evening.
00:20:07
Speaker
But boy, did Coach Sampson have the kids focused and fans got to see the market difference between playing at home versus on the road in this league. Is our Cougars crushed Texas Tech 77-54. Bill, you can go first on this one. What were your thoughts?
00:20:23
Speaker
Yeah, the game was packed. The game was loud. It was a great atmosphere last night. Yeah, I loved being there. I'll just open it up with this. I do not think, and I would bet money on this every time, a six-man team is not going to beat you of age. It's just not going to happen. Keep in mind that Kansas State is the same way and... Kansas too, right? Kansas doesn't have that deeper bench either.
00:20:52
Speaker
they play a couple more, but I think I said it last
Other Big 12 Games to Watch
00:20:55
Speaker
time, they've really only able to carry them and they're not carrying well right now, but yeah, a six man team is, it's just going to be tough against our relentless pressure. We just took them apart in the second half.
00:21:07
Speaker
In fact, and I should do this, but I'm going to bring up a woman in my office, Leslie Solis, basketball queen, operations star. I said to her, just as a joke, what's your prediction for tonight? She said, you have age, and she didn't go to U of H. She said, U of H will be up at halftime, and then they'll blow tech out in the second half. So next time I go to Vegas, I want her with me, or I at least want her analysis of everything that's going on.
00:21:37
Speaker
The game last night kind of started and ended with Shedd. I mean, from the struggles against TCU, he bounced back. He did prove that I think he's the best all-around point guard in the country. Last night, absolutely confirmed it. And Tech's strength, as we talked about in the past, really their back court, Papa Isaacs and Joe Toussaint. And last night, Shedd and Cryer. For Cryer's issues shooting the ball right now, he's still playing hard defensively.
00:22:06
Speaker
He played great against Isaacs and Shetting on Toussaint. They really took them out and it really, really made those guys look pretty pedestrian. Roberts had another strong game and I thought Francis and Ramon also played well. As good as our defense and our rebounding,
00:22:26
Speaker
When we're efficient offensively, we are really good. And last night was a complete reversal from TCU. We shot over 52% from the field, 47% from three, and only six turnovers for the game against a kind of a guard heavy team.
Closing Remarks and Listener Engagement
00:22:45
Speaker
When we're shooting like that, with our defense, we should never lose. Kugler had some more foul trouble and he's-
00:22:53
Speaker
That seems to be a trend lately and he'll work his way through it. He'll get through it as he plays more and gets more experience. At least, you know, a lot of it's coming from, from crashing the boards and playing hard defensively. They're not necessarily dumb fouls. They're aggressive fouls, but I mean that, that's really about it. And yeah, obviously Steve, I like to see tech lose.
00:23:18
Speaker
I knew it. That's why I wanted to let you go first. Nice. How about you, Tom? I think the key for our offense, and maybe this was Kelvin maybe kind of tweaking his philosophy, but we were taking shots earlier in the shot clock. Everybody has actions, play sets or whatever to get in their offense and every team, especially when you get into conference play scouts that so very rarely do you know you get
00:23:46
Speaker
like an easy bucket, you know, off the initial initial action or whatever. But a couple times last night we did. And, you know, usually we pass those shots up. Kelvin has once mentioned that, you know, the work, the worst shots for his team or between like 20 seconds and 10 seconds on a shot clock, either want to push the ball up and transition where you have numbers and, you know, and get an open look, or if it's not there, you know, then work the shot clock. But
00:24:15
Speaker
We know how that ends up. A lot of times we'll have an open three off our initial action or set and we don't shoot it, whether it's Ramon, whether it's Jamal. And then what happens is that now you got 10 seconds left and what do we do is either isolation or we go to some type of ball screen action.
00:24:38
Speaker
Maybe that was a tweak by coach Sampson to attack earlier in the shot clock. Take the first shot that presented itself. You know, if that's your role on the team, we even saw Ramon.
00:24:50
Speaker
take what was it, three threes. That was great. Very happy for, for Ramon making, making that three. I was rooting for a man. I was rooting for him willing that ball to get in the basket at the same time. You know, sometimes when you take quick shots, it has a psychological effect on your defense and negative effect. And your defense is not as tough or gritty, but last night.
00:25:12
Speaker
It didn't have an effect on our defense, so I think the key is finding a happy medium. Football, they always talk about complementary football. We play complementary basketball. It all starts on the defense and defense and rebounding, but our offense is complementary to our defense. We're going to grind it out. Like I said, sometimes it looks like five cats trying to hump a basketball. Kind of looks like a cluster, but
00:25:37
Speaker
Yeah, I thought that was a key. I'm not sure if we varied our pick and roll coverage last night. You did have, uh, Juwan switching on some of the ball screens. Didn't see Francis switch or tugglers, which looked like we were playing the ball screen the same way, but a lot of times it looked like when Juwan switched on a ball screen, it gave their guards problems because they had to shoot over a big guy. We're getting good looks. So.
00:26:01
Speaker
It was a bus all in that second half and like anybody who saw the game or was at the game last night, Jamal shed not enough superlatives. You can give that kid. He bounced back from kind of two subpar games and I was watching some film of that TCU game. He didn't have his best defensive game, not just on the ball, but you know team defense. See you have his greatest game, but he came back and like the coach said, Grant McCaslin said that he was not going to allow.
00:26:30
Speaker
U of H to lose that game. I think Steve, you texted last night the same thing and I'd love to see Jamal do that more. Absolutely. We'll see it a lot of times in the second half where he'll come in and the offense has stalled and then Jamal takes over, but it'd be great to see him be that aggressive for a whole game. Yeah, completely agree.
00:26:54
Speaker
Yeah, and I'll say one more thing. Excuse me, Steve. One more thing about LJ. You know, we talked about a shooting was and all that you have to give LJ credit. Like Bill mentioned, he's still playing really, really good team defense and individual defense. He's not pounding body langers is still good and you have to give LJ credit for that. Now he played well. I thought hopefully it's turning around for him.
00:27:19
Speaker
at this point. For the tech game, the story was all about Jamal Shett, as you guys had highlighted. He had a career game, played 34 minutes, and could not be contained on either side of the ball. Kudos to Coach Sampson for getting him to be more aggressive, looking to score, because it just opened things up for everyone else. Starters remained the same. Things started very evenly, actually, going back and forth. And the first quartile of the game is broken down by Ken Palm.
00:27:47
Speaker
We pulled away a bit in the second quartile playing Inspire D and as Ramon Walker and L.J. Cryer hit some timely threes during that stretch. Then we just pulled away in the second half as text players wore down as you suggest that they would bill.
00:28:03
Speaker
Shed was the star of the game. He was an obscene plus 35.5 player box score plus minus for the game. I don't think I've seen that before. Plus 35.5 for the game and dominated again, both sides of the ball.
00:28:19
Speaker
He had 29 points, 10 assists, 4 rebounds, and 2 steals. Roberts was active on offense again for the second game in a row and was a plus 13.9, player box score plus minus, and Dunn played a second strong game in a row and was a plus 6.6. But I want to highlight two kids that were difference makers and key in this game. Ramon Walker, as you guys had highlighted, finally.
00:28:45
Speaker
played some meaningful minutes, hitting a timely three in the first half, rebounding, and was a plus 3.5 after playing 11 critical minutes, and we need him to play that type of 10 or so minutes of time per game.
00:29:02
Speaker
But really, Jave Francis, boy, he turned in his fourth straight game in a row since conference play began to contribute big time. I was actually the one that predicted Tuggler would actually start playing more minutes at the five come conference play.
00:29:19
Speaker
And boy, well, Francis has upped his game since then and came in at a plus 5.4 player box score plus minus. I'm just ecstatic with Javier's play since conference play has begun. As you dig into the advanced analytics from 10-POM on offense, we had one of our most efficient games of the season.
00:29:40
Speaker
our effective field goal percentage was at an incredible 58.4%. That's almost 10 points higher than our norm this year. We protected the ball extremely well, turning the ball over only 10.3% of the time, and we're very good on that front to begin with, and we bested our norms for the year. And to top it off, we shot 47% from three, well above our 35% norm. On D,
00:30:08
Speaker
Though the stats might not show it, we actually played very sound game, staying in front and pressuring tech the entire game. Tech did shoot 48% effective field goal percentage, which is not to our standard this year. They also shot 40.8% from three point range, which is well higher than our
00:30:28
Speaker
26.1% rate this season. But we forced them to 23.3% turnovers, which we made a concerted effort as you highlighted, Tom, to turn into quick points in the game. And we have not been doing that over there. So that was a really nice change in tactics on offense. So a statement win for our Cougars versus Tech and some really positive signs from
00:30:53
Speaker
Dunn and Francis and even Ramon Walker. But playing in the No Conference for Old Men Big 12, tough upcoming games versus Ant Inspired, UCF, and at BYU this coming week. But before we get into those games, let's summarize the Big 12 games each of us actually highlighted last week. Tom, you want to go first and give some thoughts on the game that you had highlighted?
00:31:18
Speaker
Yeah, I highlighted OU at KU in the fog. Oklahoma played them tough for the majority of the first half it was closed. They were still within shouting distance in the second half, but eventually,
00:31:33
Speaker
Kansas kind of kind of made some plays and oh you made some boneheaded plays and then yeah and then KU. I didn't see any screw jobs going on in this game yet. Nothing egregious. It was just a little too much. Hunter Dickinson a little too much KJ Adams and you know they did get some bench minutes from a couple of guys. They end up rolling to the victory. Alright, how about you Bill?
00:32:02
Speaker
I had Kansas State Tech, and I like to do the games against our upcoming C of H's opponents, so I thought I'd look at Tech for this one.
00:32:12
Speaker
At the end, I said I thought Tech would win 74-71, both teams scoring. Like I said, both teams are extraordinarily thin and Tech did win 60-59. Tech was down 11 and a half and outscored State 38-26 in the second half. I'd mentioned that the back courts were going to be what to focus on, Tyler Perry and Cam Carter for State versus Pop Isaacs and Tech.
00:32:41
Speaker
Perry and Carter scored 31 of Kansas State's 59 points. Isaac and Toussaint actually didn't have a big, big scoring game, scoring 20. Kansas State had 23 minutes off the bench, 17 from one player. Tech had 43 minutes off the bench, 32 by one player, Chance McMillan. So these are really two teams that only play six.
00:33:09
Speaker
I think the key to this game, Kansas State was up late in the game. It's going to sound a little bit like this in TCU. They were up six points late in the game. For the game, Tech only committed nine turnovers, whereas Kansas State committed 18, and several of them came down the stretch. They did have some missed shots. Toussaint hit a big three, and they ended up winning.
00:33:32
Speaker
In the end, with six man teams, I don't see either one of these teams challenge for a big 12 title. They're going to wear down. If they either one of them suffers one more injury, it's just going to kill them. Which brings me up to the point is that. Tech was down by 20 something last night with like a minute and a half left. McCastlin still had. I was shocked. What if what if one of those guys rolls his ankle? Now you're down the.
00:34:02
Speaker
five yeah i agree i yeah i was watching that as well and i actually commented on that i said i couldn't believe that isaac's was playing at the end of the game with the score what it was that that was crazy on a thin team yeah on a team no bench yeah okay
00:34:20
Speaker
I mean, so for me, I zeroed on the Cincy Baylor game, which Baylor held on to win 62-59. The game was as advertised, very close, the entire game, and just a fun matchup. They were tied 27-27 at the half, then a game of runs in the second half, Cincy.
00:34:37
Speaker
actually took an eight-point lead early second. Then in the fourth quartile of the game, Baylor took a nine-point lead. Then we had yet another furious comeback by Cincy towards the end of the game. Though Ray J. Dennis played a major role in the overall game for Baylor with a
00:34:53
Speaker
plus 15.3 player box score plus minus. It was actually freshman Walter that scored 14 points in the second half that was key to the win. What I will highlight for this game is that Cincy appears to be for real this season and Wes Miller has got them playing well. Dan Skillings was a plus 25.5 player box score plus minus for the game and someone we're going to have to look out for when we play them.
00:35:22
Speaker
So now let's get to the game preview for upcoming UH UCF matchup. UCF. Yeah.
00:35:28
Speaker
Just real quickly, I wanted to give you some credit. If I'm not mistaken, you had predicted Baylor to win that game by three points, so you hit it right on the head. Yeah, lucked out on that one. Thanks. But yeah, as we go towards the UCF game, I mean, UCF just won at UT, which was just phenomenal. Bill, you want to make a run at the upcoming game versus UCF?
00:35:56
Speaker
Sure. UCF, they're 11-5 right now. They've got the win over Kansas. They've got the win at Texas. As this season plays out, I'm not quite as impressed about a win over Texas. True.
00:36:12
Speaker
But yeah, I mean, two good wins. They got crushed by Kansas State. But just recently, they lost by five, only by five against BYU. So they're playing competitively right now. They're playing well. Johnny Dawkins, obviously the head coach, he's been there for quite a while. We've had a lot of familiarity with him in the American.
00:36:37
Speaker
They're off to a good start. They said 11-5, but they really did not have any type of a win worth mentioning until camp. But they seem to be playing a lot better now. They've kind of had a two-man team up until recently. Their point guard is 6-1 Darius Johnson. He's their only returning starter.
00:37:00
Speaker
He's averaging this season 14.5 points, 3.5 assists per game. Their best player is a transfer from Ball State. He's a 6'4 shooting guard. Jalen Sellers is averaging 17.5 points, 4 rebounds. For some reason,
00:37:16
Speaker
And I don't know if he got into Dawkins' doghouse, but he came off the bench against Texas for the first time this year and still played 33 minutes. But led him in scoring with 24 points. Those two are their scorers. They've got a transfer from Missouri, Kansas City named Shamari Allen. He's a 6'4 shooting guard. He actually scored 17 against UT. So he stepped up. And then they've got another guy named CJ Walker. Nice name.
00:37:46
Speaker
6-8 forward, and he was injured for almost all of last year. I think this may have been his fifth or possibly sixth game. He's only averaging seven points, four and a half rebounds, not shooting well, but he had a good game against UT last night. It sounds like he's starting to work his way back into the lineup and play well. And like I said,
00:38:10
Speaker
He's a transfer from Oregon and the other transfers, they just got the one returning starter. So it sounds like Johnny Dawkins is starting to get them to play much better together. But the key is going to be their back court, which is Johnson and Sellers.
00:38:29
Speaker
And once again, that matches up with our strength with shed crier and was sharp. I think that we'll defend them well. They are not a great three point shooting team. So it's just going to be a matter of once again, uh, defending the dribble penetration.
00:39:03
Speaker
Yeah, crazy
00:39:09
Speaker
I think because their strength is really those two guards and going up against much better guards, in my opinion, I think we win this game by at least 20. I'd say 74 52. Wow. You're predicting a big win. Okay. I think we take them apart. Holy cow. Okay. How about you, Tom? I just hope Bill's a profit. Yeah, because no kidding.
00:39:36
Speaker
I'm looking at every game and it's like, it's going to be a nail biter. I don't know if my nerves can, can, can take this, but looking at UCF, uh, I had them, I think in our preseason show, I think I had them 13th or 14th, Oklahoma state and UCF. And you look at the transfer portal, what they brought in. I thought Johnny Dawkins will be on the hot seat this year.
00:39:59
Speaker
And we're still only four games, you know, into an 18 game league schedule is Bill alluded to, you know, that Texas, when, you know, some of the shine might be off that game in a month and a half, we'll, we'll just have to see, uh, no, no chance. I'll be traveling for that game. I'm coming. Yeah.
00:40:19
Speaker
I'll be there too. So I'll be there for that when the Iowa State game, but you know, they beat Kansas at home and we just don't know yet how good UCF is going to be. Like I said, Bill, I hope you're a prophet. I hope we, we win by, you know, 18 or 20. But at this point, UCF plays well against soft teams.
00:40:40
Speaker
just don't know why the upbeat in Texas on the road and the cancers and that's a
00:40:57
Speaker
Yeah, we'll get to BYU. But if you look at the advanced analytics, we're back to number one in Ken Palm. UCF is number 71. We've got the 11th adjusted offensive efficient team in the country, while UCF is number 17th in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the flip side, we're number one in defensive efficiency, while UCF is at 175 in adjusted offensive efficiency.
00:41:24
Speaker
UCF is just a bad shooting team at 256 in effective field goal percentage but are an excellent offensive rebounding team like ourselves ranked number 33rd in the country and they try to score quick and in transition on steals and offensive rebounds ranking 11th and 9th across both so you know very similar to TCU in that respect.
00:41:49
Speaker
They do turn the ball over a lot though, ranking 230th in turnover percentage. And from a style of play perspective, they emphasize the two point play and free throws for their scoring versus the three point shot. So the Cougars need to be careful with fouls during this game.
00:42:05
Speaker
Then you match that up against our number one effective field goal percentage D that defends every shot, number one defensive team in defending the two-point shot, steals, and block percentage. And I think our D matches up well with how UCF wants to run their offense. On the other side, UCF is an excellent
00:42:23
Speaker
at defending the two-point shot, ranking 37th in defensive two-point percentage, but really elite at forcing turnovers, ranking 10th in Ken Palm and block shots, ranking 3rd. The key stat to look out for is whether we're going to be able to offensive rebound, since UCF is number six in Ken Palm for defensive rebound percentage. So another challenging day for the Cougs trying to score. Based on metrics, this should be around an eight-point win.
00:42:51
Speaker
But being a home game, playing a UCF team that just went big on the road, but are traveling yet again, I actually expect us to win by 12 points. Not at your 20 point clip there, Bill, but I think 22, I think 12 points and I'll be a happy camper here. Now let's get to the game preview for the upcoming UHBYU matchup. Tom, why don't you kick things off and let us know what you think here.
00:43:18
Speaker
This is Bill's team here. Bill, uh, Steve and I both had BYU, uh, really, really far down. I kind of laughed at their roster. It was just to me, it just looked like a bunch of, looked like a bunch of role players, you know, that average, like, uh, you know, 2.2 points a game, et cetera. But yeah, except for Bill, they're one of the,
00:43:38
Speaker
surprise team so far and we're going to be playing them on the road. They have really good shooters. Yes. One of them is, uh, Nell, I can't remember who, who it was, but he had nine threes against somebody and I can't remember who they were playing. Maybe be Cincinnati, maybe, but I remember he had nine threes and it came down to crunch time. He was on the bench. So I don't know what went on there. I don't know if you guys remember that game. Mark Pope.
00:44:04
Speaker
A really, really good coach on the offense and they run good stuff on offense. They do a lot of what's called like zoom action with their big man. Their big men are skilled, which means they can run this zoom, which is like a dribble handoff and then they can pop, you know, they can ball screen and pop. So this will present some different challenges for our big guys and the pick and roll defense. You know, that's one way you can attack a pick and roll defense like we play.
00:44:31
Speaker
is to pop or short roll the man. And BYU has some big men that can do that. They can hit the three point shot or they can short roll, catch the ball, and then you have like a three on two on the backside. So this is going to be a test for our defense, especially on the road. Yeah, definitely. How about you, Bill? This is your team. Tell us what you think.
00:44:51
Speaker
Well, this isn't my team. I just, I thought with all the players they had back from last year and a 19 win team, I thought, well, they, they gotta be better. And, uh, so far so good for them. 14 and three, uh, in conference, they're two and two. The wins are at UCF by five and they just blew out Iowa state by 15. And by the way, Tom.
00:45:19
Speaker
the one player you mentioned, Treven now, he's got a foot injury. He did not play in that game. Really? He was out. You didn't see that fist pump on the radio.
00:45:32
Speaker
I would never wish an injury on anybody. Well, it's not a bad foot injury. It sounds like he's about 50, 50, maybe 60, 40 to play in their game on Saturday against Tech, which is the game I'll be. It sounds like he'll be back for take that for what it's worth.
00:45:52
Speaker
their third loss outside of the two conference losses is to Utah. I think they're a little bit like Utah without the two seven-footers. They moved the ball well. They passed. They hit shots against Iowa State. And the final was 87-72. They took 35 threes. And there were 21 assists in that game. I mean, this is not a one-on-one team. They pass the ball. They move. Like you said, they pick.
00:46:21
Speaker
they hit shots. When they're healthy, they have 11 players that play at least 10 minutes a game. They have got a deep team. They do. The other thing is their wing players and their guards are all big. Nobody particularly small. Jackson Robinson is a 6'7 shooting guard. He averages 14.5 points. He's a 40% three-point shooter.
00:46:46
Speaker
He had 15 against Iowa State. Like I said, Nell, Nell didn't play, but he's, he's shooting 49% from three, 50% from the field. He's 6-5. Spencer Johnson, 6-5 shooting guard. He had 28 against Iowa State in 35 minutes. He also had nine rebounds and five assists. That's a 6-5 shooting guard. And he was averaging 11 going into the game.
00:47:12
Speaker
Yeah, BYU is going back 40, 45 years of basketball. They've always had tall guards, tall, skilled guards. Big men are usually pretty skilled. That Iowa State game, that was an onslaught. 87 points against ISU's vaunted defense. Yeah, that's right.
00:47:31
Speaker
Yeah. Noah Waterman's 6-11, small forward. He's kind of like the seven footer from Utah. He's 6-11, but he took eight threes against Iowa State. He had 18 points in that game. I mean,
00:47:47
Speaker
And even their point guard, his name's Dallin Hall. He's 6'4". He's the smallest player that plays any significant minutes for them. And he's a great distributor of the ball. He had eight assists against Iowa State. He's an absolutely mediocre shooter. He's the one guy that can't shoot on that team, and he distributes the ball. But he went four of four from the field, three of three from behind the arc against Iowa State. So it was one of those nights where they were hitting everything. I mean, they're a good all-around team at both ends of the
00:48:17
Speaker
court, they shoot 48%, 37% from three. They move the ball well. They're not overly athletic. I think that where we're going to have a big advantage is in getting the ball inside to Juwan. I think he could just take them apart with his strength. Yeah, go ahead. Go ahead, Bill.
00:48:38
Speaker
I'm just going to conclude it by saying they're a good team. They have not encountered our defense yet. I think we end up winning 75-67. We win by eight. Wow. Yeah. And my comment, guys, was if you want to compare teams, think of Penn.
00:48:54
Speaker
but with a little bit better athletes. That's who BYU is. Wow. A little bit better. Got it. Similar offenses. They run the zoom action with the big man. And yeah, that's, that's what I would, I would compare them to is a more athletic pin team. So the advanced analytics say something different. I mean, we're number one in Kenpaw. Man, BYU is number nine.
00:49:19
Speaker
I mean, they're the second highest in Ken Palm within the Big 12. For us, we're 11th in adjusted offensive efficiency. They're eighth in adjusted defensive. On the flip side, we're, again, number one in adjusted defensive efficiency. They're number 15th in adjusted offensive efficiency. BYU will be a super difficult team to defend. They're number seven in effect of vehicle percentage. Number two in three-point scoring offense.
00:49:48
Speaker
Plus, back that up as the number 36th offensive rebounding team on Ken Palm. That's just going to be really difficult to defend. And they'll try to speed things up on offense, trying to get their shooters open from three. Then you match that up against our number one effective vehicle percentage to either that defends every shot and number 13th D in defending the three. And something is going to have to give on our side or theirs. It'll be a fascinating, fascinating matchup.
00:50:18
Speaker
And on the other side, BYU is phenomenal at defending every shot. Number nine in defensive effective field goal percentage, but especially on threes where they're ranked third in the country. But they don't block many shots or steal the ball.
00:50:34
Speaker
And so the Cougs should have an easier time protecting the ball on offense, but BYU is number six at defensive rebounding. So key thing to watch is whether we can offensive rebound or not in this game. On the road, based on the metrics, this should be around a two point win. But I still have to admit, I'm still in denial that BYU is as good as they are. So I'm expecting a six point win.
00:51:00
Speaker
with another grinded out physical game like Iowa State. But boy, if they beat us, then I'm a believer at that point. Okay, so now what are the other big 12 games that fans should pay attention to this week that are of interest? Bill, you wanna go first on this one?
00:51:17
Speaker
Sure. Since we've got BYU coming up, I've got BYU Tech. The game is after our game, our UCF game. It's on Saturday, five o'clock. Yes. If you're interested in scouting BYU prior to the game.
00:51:33
Speaker
You know, for Tech, it's Isaacs, Toussaint, Washington, Walton, and Wilson. The thin team, it's really those five. They're more athletic. Steve, you were kind of alluding to it. You know, no steals, no blocked shots. Tech's a more athletic team. They'll be able to create some of their own shots, particularly Isaacs and Toussaint off the dribble. And they've got the seven-footer Washington inside.
00:52:00
Speaker
probably do some damage, but I think BYU's perimeter height, their ball movement, their depth, and especially if Nell is back, I think this makes it a really tough defensive matchup for 10. I think unless BYU goes ice cold from the field, I just can't see BYU losing this game. I have them winning 11. 81. Yeah, good call. How about you, Tom? Which game are you watching?
00:52:28
Speaker
I'm going to watch Kansas at West Virginia. And there's only one reason is because I want some Shaden Freud. I like to watch. I just I want Kansas to lose and I want to watch it. That's the only reason. That's the only reason. It's the only reason. Are you picking an upset win? Probably not. But you know,
00:52:53
Speaker
In West Virginia, you know, let's see if they get better. We talked about how bad they looked against us. I mean, we just like blow them out of the water. So they did get a win against Texas at home. I know. So, uh, yeah, I just, I like watching Kansas and I hope they lose and I get enjoyment out of it. Nice. Nice.
00:53:13
Speaker
So I'm picking the TCU Iowa State game. Both teams are still ranked, both are 2-2 in conference, and both are coming off a loss this week. This should be a good game with the game flow very similar to our game versus TCU.
00:53:29
Speaker
TCU likes to run, get things in transition, or offensive rebounds, why ISU likes to grind you down on D like we do. Both teams focus on the two-point shot versus the threes, and both play still or D. So this should be a fun one. Based on metrics, this should be around a one-point win for TCU at home. I'm in agreement. Again, expect a one to two-point win by TCU playing at home.
00:53:55
Speaker
So that's it for episode 12 of the no conference for old men podcast Hope you all enjoyed it And again would really appreciate it if folks would follow subscribe or collect our podcast depending on your podcast platform of choice We are also available via the republic of football podcast feed from the folks at dave campbell's texas football as the only basketball focused
00:54:17
Speaker
podcast on that feed or at goku.com website for those that prefer to digest the content. That way we appreciate the continued support and loyalty from all. And we're going to keep trying to provide the type of deep college hoops insight for Cougar and big 12 fans everywhere. Also, please give us a follow on our Twitter account, no conference for old men. Thank you all again for listening. And episode 13 should come out next Friday morning. So please be on the lookout to download and listen to the next episode. Thanks again, everyone.