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Let's talk MIDFIELDERS with Warnie! Josh Kelly, Jack Macrae, Tom Mitchell, Jai Newcombe, Matt Rowell, and more! | #PODPOD
156 Plays2 years ago
Despite it being hectic times over at AFL Fantasy HQ in the midst of pre-season, the AFL Fantasy Podfather himself Warnie graces us with his presence to chat midfielders! There were so many players to discuss across this 60-plus minutes of #PODPOD goodness that you might have to listen twice! From fan-favourite picks like Tom Mitchell and Jack Macrae to some more unique points of difference like Josh Kelly, Christian Petracca and Jai Newcombe — Dos, Statesman, Holmesy, and Warnie break down the biggest names ahead of the 2023 AFL Fantasy season.
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Transcript
00:00:02
Speaker
you
Intro and Podcast Lineup
00:00:17
Speaker
G'day and welcome to the Pod Pod. It's ya boi, Dossi, back on this Wednesday night, January 25th, 2023, talking AFL fantasy midfielders. It's where we get the bulk of our score. It's where we get the bulk money from our rookies. Let's be honest, it's the most important line of the game. You stuff up your mids, and as Holmsey says, we'll see you in 2024. Speak of the devil, here he is, the former AFL fantasy runner up. It's Grumpty Dumpty himself. Holmsey, welcome, mate.
00:00:48
Speaker
Yeah, Dossie, good to be here, mate. And it's really good to have this special guest on. Poor Louie. You've been paying him in chicken twisties for this entire season. And what? You've sold all your crypto to get Warndog on? What's going on?
00:01:00
Speaker
Look, Louis is not available. He's, uh, he's off to the Australian Open living his best life. But, um, you know, way to ruin my intro, my big build up to the great man, but, um, look, we'll skip over the false. We've heard enough about him in the past. So warning. Welcome the pod father on the pod pod. Welcome to the show.
00:01:18
Speaker
Great to be here, mate. It's very exciting to be on one of my, oh, probably in my top 10 favorite fantasy podcasts going around. Geez, top 10. We appreciate it, mate. There's plenty out there these days. Plenty of great content going around. You've made about 10 yourself though, haven't you, over the years anyway, haven't you, Dossie? Yeah, I'm probably on most of those top 10, mate. That's for sure. Exactly.
00:01:40
Speaker
Look, you've been a big part in building the fantasy community and we're very grateful for that. But how's the pre-season preparation going? No doubt in full swing at the moment over at AFL fantasy headquarters.
00:01:50
Speaker
Yeah, it's been busy, I think, every year. It feels like it gets busier and busier, but probably the thing that made it a bit more awkward was the fact that it didn't launch before Christmas, like we've got used to the last couple of years. So we're sort of sitting in a little bit of limbo and then still getting content out there, but now it's all systems go. And so I think actually tonight is, it hits the 50 day mark until that first lockout.
Pre-Season Preparations
00:02:14
Speaker
So it'll be the 7.20 PM mark on the,
00:02:19
Speaker
The Wednesday the 25th, it's 50 days exactly until that first lockout. So things will start getting real now too. I guess we've been doing our club preview articles and podcasts and they wrap up in a few days time and then yeah, we'll be right into all of that content for pretty much like six weeks. It feels like it is creeping up pretty quickly now.
00:02:38
Speaker
Hectic times. I'm pretty surprised though, to be honest, warning that you haven't put a disclaimer on the website saying that the Hilux has already been won by my squad. What's going on there, mate? I think we need to disclaim for the people. Well, you might notice that as we speak, there are no prizes on the website yet. So I think the Hilux might be going to second place now because you've got that one in the can.
00:03:00
Speaker
Thanks, mate, appreciate it. Well, we will welcome aboard the Fossil, the Statesman, here's the People's Fossil. Welcome aboard again, stay at home for another episode. Pleasure to be here, Doss, and I will say we talked about the Top 10 of Fantasy Podcast before this one just makes the top 10 for me. But the scary thing, this is how senile and how long I've been around. This is the seventh different podcast that I've actually been on with you, Doss. Seven.
00:03:31
Speaker
Wow, I wasn't keeping count. I try and put into the back of my memory anything with you mate. Can I say you always come and get me after you've been sacked from whichever other one I've been on with.
00:03:47
Speaker
It is true. It is true. You're my go-to. Thank you. Thank you, mate. You're always there for me.
Midfielders Discussion Strategy
00:03:52
Speaker
Look, we are going to be talking midfielders and we've got so many names to get through. Our usual system is that we go through a couple each that we're kind of keen to talk about and then we're going to go throw it to the listeners who you guys have thrown out so many great suggestions for us. So we're going to have to get through as many of those as we can. It's going to be a ripper show ahead. But first, before we get into it, as always, this episode of the Pod Pod is brought to you by
00:04:15
Speaker
the keeper leg, and boy, it's not just for your keeper legs. Their website, a ton of resources to help you with your AFL fantasy classic team. I've already been using their rookie guide. They've got a little guide out there with all the fantasy numbers from the juniors of all the draft days. During the season, you get your CBA's, your kicking trends, all the other stuff, scoring trends. They've got stuff for caper legs, draft, and your classic teams. Use the code podpod at sign up for 20% off all memberships.
00:04:43
Speaker
And the other thing, remiss of me to not mention as well, um, sneakily throw in there that the show as well brought to you, not technically, but, uh, brought to you by Smug Chicken, the new release by Elon Dask. Um, Elon Dask pumping out a new application on the web. Check it out. SmugChicken.com. Warning. I know you were big into the wordle, the wordle stuff. Are you getting around some Smug Chicken? It's, it's.
00:05:10
Speaker
I have been actually I have probably played four or five of them at least and you made it too easy for me though I think I've got them I've got them straight away I think it's I think I was very good at Wheel of Fortune back in the day if there's a letter up there or something there now I'll get a visual and yeah it's good well done mate it's good fun
00:05:29
Speaker
Thanks mate, just waiting for the big buyout to come in, just like the New York Times, waiting for them to come on board. But Stado, you no doubt haven't figured out how to use the app on the website yet. No, no, too way too advanced for me. But as you were going through that spill before of just recalled, it's eight. I forgot about the keeper league. Eight. Okay.
00:05:52
Speaker
All right, well let's kick it off Stado. We won't throw it on our guest straight away. We'll let you kick off your first midfielder you want to talk about for season 2023.
Top Midfielder Picks
00:06:02
Speaker
Yeah, as soon as I set up my team, the first one I actually put in was this man and that's Jack McRae.
00:06:07
Speaker
So at 916k he is just such good value. So we're talking working a price stat of 103 and this man has just been a superstar in and AFL fantasy circles for such a long time. And the reality is the reason why he's such good value is he has one less person
00:06:31
Speaker
to work against in the CBAs, Josh Dunkley moving to Brisbane, just frees and opens him up. Now, whether he can get back to the absolute highs is of course questionable, but I'm comfortable to say this is a top eight midfielder at a value price. And that's what I'm looking for in my starting squad. You on board that train of thought there, Warndog as well as Jack McRae in the frame for picking for you.
00:07:02
Speaker
Yeah, I've been big on Macrae as well this preseason. I just think it's just, you always like to find your value and you can find your value in guys that have been there before. And I think that's the first point that he has been there before. And then things have changed and probably for the better for him. I guess you've got a few questions because it is A Bevo and B there are, there are quite a few midfielders that do float through there and how they're used. But I think he's the mainstay in that as well.
00:07:29
Speaker
As long as he doesn't get stuck out on that wing and drops his bottom lip, I think that he's a great pick and I almost want to say he's an easy pick if you're down that train of thought because I think he's a top eight in my head at the moment and if he's there, you might as well start with him.
00:07:49
Speaker
Seeing as he's a big name, I'll throw to you as well here, Holmsey. Do you think there's any chance that he can maybe get stuck out on a wing despite the departure of Dunkley? And because I know last year you were banking your hopes on McCray just having a resurgent season. It wasn't quite there, but with Dunkley out the door, do you feel like he could also bounce back?
00:08:07
Speaker
Yeah, I suppose it's the obvious answer, but with Bevo, you just never really know what he's going to do. I suppose that's a concerning thing and yeah, look, everyone expects him to bounce back. The only concern I sort of have is if you actually look in his numbers, he has actually been that sort of 105 guy now for about 18 months. So, you know, can he get back to those 110 days without Dunkley? We would assume yes, but you've also got Bond, you've got Baz Smith, you've got a lot of guys through there now.
00:08:33
Speaker
Who knows? It's just one to really consider. And I suppose, Stado, can you start with a McRae and a Bont or a McRae and a Baz Smith? Is it too much to start with two of those guys from the same team? I don't think it's too much. I'm not going that way myself. I'll go McRae because I think he's got the best value. All right, Woundog, who's your first player you're going to talk about on the Pod Pod?
00:08:57
Speaker
Well I've just released the Collingwood podcast and article and I had to go with Tom Mitchell. I guess he's a big talking point of this pre-season. I think personally he's a no-brainer for me but I feel like some people might be overthinking some things with him and it's fine to flag stuff and that's a very important part of your research and your study and why you're making decisions but the big one is about what the Pies have done with their numbers and that's and it's totally valid like I'm not
00:09:27
Speaker
talking about him being back to that 127 and 129 that he did a few years ago when he when we snouted him as a pig and he won a brown low doing that but I can't I don't see a world really where he goes well no there is a world that that can happen but I feel like it's a 110 and that's basically a pretty safe sort of figure because it could even be bigger than that so that's where I'm at and I guess but basically being priced at 95 or 96 it is where he is is
00:09:56
Speaker
There's the 10 points upside at a minimum to get to a 106, which then has him knocking on the door of that top eight. And then that 110 sort of cements him inside that spaces where I'm feeling that at the moment, I think the biggest part is, yep. So let's talk about what his role is. He's an inside midfielder. He wasn't doing that last year much because I think he was only, it was 53% of centre bounces that he was attending last year. And that was down from 70 and 74% in the two years prior.
00:10:25
Speaker
I think that that's the key thing, that that's what his role will be. Yeah, there's always unknowns when you're going to a club with a new club and it's a new system and even for Collingwood, obviously the 12 months into that new system, but they were missing that piece of the puzzle, I think last year. And I think that's why I can understand the questions and all that sort of stuff. But it's one of those ones that I feel like you don't want to overthink. And even when I saw that his ownership was 31%, I thought, wow,
00:10:55
Speaker
I thought that was quite low for what most coaches would do when they're opening up a team and going, yep, we're getting a Tom Mitchell there at 853K. I feel like when you're saving 100 grand at least on other guys that could potentially do the same number, that's where I'm at.
00:11:14
Speaker
Yeah. I tend to follow that exact thought and I'm all aboard Titch train for 2023, but being the devil's advocate, I'll throw out the other numbers and maybe Holmes, he can provide the counter, but probably the haters, the doubters you're talking about, Warnie, they're probably talking about the magpies being down at 12th.
00:11:33
Speaker
you know, 12th in the league for fantasy scoring and also probably that distribution of center bounce attendances to go. He was one of the bigger attend days. But aside from that, it was very evenly dispersed between guys like Adams, Penderbury, Crisp, Lipinski. And you've also got potentially a Nick Daikos coming in and playing a bit more midfield. Holmes, did you see a scenario where teach isn't that value pick to start the year?
00:11:56
Speaker
Nah Doss, just like Warnie, I'm all aboard the tits train. I think last year they just didn't really have the cattle. I think ideally they would have loved a Taylor Adams to be there a lot more rather than being injured. We know Degoa, yeah, he gets really high CBAs, but then he pushes forward. So, you know, sort of around the ground, he's not.
00:12:14
Speaker
as much of an inside midfielder as what those CBAs suggest. So, I think Tom Mitchell's that easy pick. In general play, CBAs is going to be right there at the coal face, winning that ball in and under, which they just didn't have a lot of last year. So, Warndog's exactly right. You don't need him to go 115. If he goes 105, he's a very, like, he's a serviceable good pick.
00:12:34
Speaker
if you can push back to that 107 to 110 then he's exactly that player that we need that is going to be close enough to the top eight if not right at the bottom and coming in priced at 95 I'd much rather pick him than say an LDU who you're relying on to break out whereas we know Tom Mitchell's done it plenty of times before.
00:12:52
Speaker
And in traditional dossy fashion, gonna go with the point of difference for my own first pick of the podcast. A guy who I was shocked to be honest, that was a point of difference, been one of the most popular selections for the last few years in a row now since coming into the AFL. But we are all looking for that big breakout and a guy that's always gonna be at the center bounce yet not gonna cost you that arm and leg. Now I've got a guy,
00:13:19
Speaker
who attends 80% of center bounces, this is just last year, still only 21 years old with immense upside, played every single game last year and is only going to cost you $664,000 and only owned by 2% of the comp. I'm talking about Matt Rau.
00:13:37
Speaker
Everyone's just forgot about him this year, a guy who's been in our minds consistently in the last couple of years. But why don't we like him? Now, there's a couple of reasons he's owned by so few coaches in my mind. Obviously hasn't shown that ability to consistently spread from the contest, take more than one or two marks a game. He's plays in that second lowest scoring side in the competition. I've already basically said that I'm banning myself from picking a son, but
00:14:04
Speaker
Could I do it? I don't know. If the game plan changes slightly, if there's a few more marks, he's getting another full preseason under his belt. If he can get to contest a contest a little bit more like we saw back in his debut season in 2020, I feel like there's plenty of upside here. Stado, is there any way Matt Rauch could maybe be the year we don't pick him? Could this be the year he goes boom? I'm assuming we've moved on to the Lucks or Sucks section. Sucks. Wow.
00:14:35
Speaker
Wow. Warnie, what do you reckon? Are you on the same on board with the state or here? No interest in Raoul? Well, at that price point, I'm not really interested. I think that's a, that's a tough thing. I would love to see him get back up there because we go back to that last season. I started him, I think quite a few of us did. And then a lot of people jumped on him after round one because he did
00:14:59
Speaker
knock out that ton in that first game. So it's a really tough one because I think that we are going to look back at some point and go, yep, here he is. And that's now what he stays at. He's probably going to be that 95 to 100 guy. He's probably never going to be the really high scoring player as much as those junior numbers might have pointed in that direction, mainly because of the way he plays.
00:15:23
Speaker
we think about last year and that was something we tracked pretty heavily like the marks they just were not there at all and that was really what was struggling the scoring so even was it 75 his average last year i think um is that what it was yep and i think that's where like that surprised me a little bit considering how much of a hard time we sort of gave him i guess
00:15:45
Speaker
Yeah, and being in, I think a mate told me the other day, of course, shout out to you mate, but he did say the conditions up in the Gold Coast are dewy at the moment. Stewie dewy. So that game plan's just not paying off for a fantasy scoring at the moment. I'll move on and pass to Holmes. He doesn't look like there's much interest in my first pod of the evening. I've got another one later on, so don't worry about that. Holmesy, take us through the play you want to talk about.
Undervalued and Breakout Players
00:16:11
Speaker
Yeah boys, so I'm going to talk us through a midfielder that I believe is actually flying under the radar a little bit this pre-season. Haven't really heard him mentioned too much and that's mainly because of everyone sort of believes that Angus Brayshore has gone into the midfield and that means Petrarca has gone out.
00:16:29
Speaker
I just want us to take a little bit of a step back. So 2021, he averaged 108 and then 2022, sorry, 2020 he averaged an adjusted 108 and then 2021 he averaged 111. So I believe that there's scope for him to push back up to being that top eight midfielder. We kind of forget how good he is. In the 2021 grand final, he had a 140 off the back of 40 possessions and three goals. And that's what Christian Petrarca does.
00:16:58
Speaker
So it was well documented last year that towards the end of the year he was struggling with a few injuries and there's actually a real case to make that that was the reason that he had pushed out of the CBA's and that's why Brayshore went in. They sort of wanted to rest him coming into finals making sure that he was cherry ripe.
00:17:14
Speaker
And they're not going to muck around this year off the back of a straight sets finals exit. They are going to be as hungry as ever to push back and really make a charge for that premiership after one has pretty much been wasted. So I can see Melbourne, we know that they've always had a very tight-knit midfield group. They generally run the three guys in there and then they just have one or two guys chopping out.
00:17:38
Speaker
And if Christian Pachaka is healthy, which from all reports, he is absolutely training the house down and he seems as passionate as ever to get back, I can definitely see a world where he starts to push up back towards those 110 numbers. So he is someone that I'm heavily considering. In the back of my mind, I do kind of worry because I know Clayton Oliver will be around the mark again. And is there enough ball for both of them to be top eight midfielders? I'm not sure.
00:18:02
Speaker
Yeah, he's one I'm definitely monitoring in the pre-season because he also doesn't need bulk CBAs. As long as he gets anywhere from 50 to 70, he's always been a very good scorer. So, Warnie, what are you thinking about Christian Petrarca?
00:18:15
Speaker
Yeah, it's interesting. And I guess the CBA tracking, as you said, doesn't totally need them, but we did see that dry up so much at the end of the season. So from around 20 onwards, he was only averaging 52% of their CBAs. And so when he's had a season average of, where are we? 75% of those, which then leading up to those last six games, that was sitting at 83. So he was...
00:18:41
Speaker
the one of the main men in there and that was that little tight knit group and it really was the Angus Brayshore he was the one that was taking over those extra ones there so it'll be interesting how that mix goes how they need to go but if you follow instagram and stuff like that you obviously could see um where Petrarca's sitting at the moment like he he is i think he's probably got
00:19:04
Speaker
might be one of those players that you've got that point to prove type thing, I reckon, and has hit that pre-season exactly how you want it to be. So, yeah, if they keep that tight, like obviously Clayton Oliver, he's a one team guy for the rest of his life, but he's going to be there and thereabouts. And he had that really, that game where he was really crook and that, I can't remember what the score was, it must have been a shocker, like a 30 type thing. And, you know, that's in an average that, you know,
00:19:32
Speaker
wouldn't normally be there for a lot of guys. So there's those instant little bits of value that you can find in guys there. So there's those few points of upside, you know, when you take those ones out, as we like to do at times. Final quick one on Petrarca for you, Holmesy, though. I remember I was an owner last year of him, came out the gates real strong. You consistently said, look, a tag's coming, mate. Is this still a concern for you heading into this year?
00:19:56
Speaker
Yeah, absolutely. All of the gun players of the competition are always going to be a tag-worry, but you tag Petrarca, Oliver gets off the chain, you tag, and vice versa, so you can't tag them both, or at least most teams won't try, so you are right, Dos, the tag will always be there, but...
00:20:11
Speaker
They're not going to tag every week. So it's just one to flag. I think if you if you have a look in preseason It's not going to surprise me one bit if they're just back to that tight rotation and and we just know what he can do So I'm just not forgetting about Christian Pachaka, which a lot of people seem to have at this point in the preseason State I want to hear your big second player you want to focus on yeah a little bit similar to home Z here someone that's probably going under the radar has not been talked about a bit and
00:20:39
Speaker
and the reality is GWS are going to have a change in their midfield mix and we seem to be concentrating on Tom Green which I think there's such great value in
00:20:52
Speaker
We're talking about Cogs because he's likely to be a top three forward. The other one that's not really being talked about but has been basically their premium scorer is Josh Kelly. So at 899k I just see him as fantastic value and he's got that perfect inside and outside game.
00:21:13
Speaker
If he's not stuck up forward, not stuck out on the wing and actually attending the CBAs because he still will get the plus sixes from his outside run, we're talking we could get a primo year out of Josh Kelly. The challenge will be the indicator of the injuries because unfortunately has run into a few of those. But if we get a clean run by Josh Kelly, there's no reason he's not part of that top eight midfielders.
00:21:45
Speaker
Yeah, it's a great call, and I might even throw, because I know Warnie wants to talk about another GWS player as his next player, which I feel like it might be a situation where we can pick multiple, given the departure of Toronto, but the CBA mix is going to be an interesting one, but Josh Kelly's history of being an awesome scorer, he's definitely up there in consideration, only 6% owned, but I think the big thing here as well, Warnie, and I'll throw to you for this now, is like their early fixture,
00:22:15
Speaker
It's just like you want to almost own plenty of these GWS players Adelaide, Eagles, Carlton, Essen and Hawthorn. I feel like that first five rounds is going to really be able to set you up for a good season with a couple of these GWS players. But warning your thoughts on Josh Kelly and then maybe take us through your second player as well.
00:22:32
Speaker
Yeah, I guess that's the thing, scale of hardness. Once we have a look at that, I've got to get Calvin working on his bloody Excel stuff, which is hard work in itself. But yeah, we're looking at looking at where that what that midfield looks like. It's just one of these things like these clubs that have got new coaches, new systems, and then there was so much change. Like they literally lost two guys that are some of the bigger, you know, center bounce guys there.
00:22:56
Speaker
my guy that is the guy that I'll talk about is Tom Green and I think we were all excited about that because he does offer that extra value but he was sort of the main man in the midfield but when you look across their centre-bounce numbers it was a tale of two halves of the season pretty much because of that's where the the change happened last year and and which half is the one that we take more into I think that's what it is or is it just going to be absolutely different and that's something that we
00:23:24
Speaker
have to think about a lot this whole oh are they going to copy the Richmond style blah blah blah and how that's all going to work there or you know it'd be nice to see exactly this is where a couple more preseason games would be really nice to have a look at because we're going to have that very limited data to see how these guys line up and I guess those any of these little training snippets that we can see and even that first pracky game that they're going to have and depending on how they roll theirs out it'll be very interesting to sort of track
00:23:52
Speaker
though that midfield mix at that time. But there's no doubt, I think, that Tom Green, who I'll talk about a little bit more in a moment, but he'll probably be the main one there.
GWS Midfield Strategy
00:24:03
Speaker
And Josh Kelly, he was just so in and out of it last year, even under both regimes. And I think that's the thing that was really tricky. Like at the end of the year, the last three games, he didn't even have a centre bounce. So that's something that is a big one in your head that he wasn't even used for, like,
00:24:21
Speaker
one at the end of a quarter or anything like that. It was completely out. You also had, it was a 25% of them for the fourth last round. But then a couple of games before that he had an 83% of the center. It was frustrating. It's just all over the shop and it's really hard to get that read on.
00:24:39
Speaker
obviously they had their interim coach and all that sort of stuff going on so it's really hard to use any data from last year in that sense to really predict what's going to happen here but we just know that he can score as well and he is someone that can score well on the outside as well like just the way he runs he's another one that's ticking the preseason boxes of all the the nice you know club intel that comes out which is everything's very rosy and everything's perfect but yeah he does look
00:25:08
Speaker
like he will be keen to have a good season because he's going to need to because he's going to be that mature player in there with cogs as well.
00:25:18
Speaker
Look, I think we've also seen plenty of, as you're saying, plenty of pre-season pitches out there that are getting us excited, these big monstrous pipes on plenty of players, including Tom Green, who you've just touched on a bit more now. But none more impressive, I would argue, than Adam Kingsley, GWS coach. Those pythons are something else, Warnie. But if his game plan's anything like his pythons, it is going to be a ferocious, ferocious game plan. Maybe just a few more words on Tom Green and throw it to Holmes in his thoughts.
00:25:47
Speaker
Alright so Tom Green basically, I think we're looking at him because he does offer a heap of value at 752k. What we saw from him last year was pretty cool. Like I think that start of the season made him jump on a lot of people's radars and a lot of people did jump on so he opened up the season with a 133, knocked out four tonnes in the first five games and had some nice numbers through there. Did drop away a bit and obviously there is a little bit of a thing about that with age and
00:26:17
Speaker
and getting into it there was obviously the regime change as we mentioned before but there's enough there to like and know that A, his role is being that inside midfielder I think with predominantly getting those centre bounces which is what we saw there so he was there most attended
00:26:36
Speaker
center bounce dude last season so while I say that most and it sounds like it's a lot but it was 58% these guys were really a massive spread on what they had so but in saying that too that's something that we we need to take a little bit with a grain of salt from last season so and hopefully we can see a little bit more consistency with that which is probably what we need to see for any of our players but also at
00:27:02
Speaker
gws is something that we want to see all the way through because they were all over the shop and if you go and deep dive into those numbers for all of their midfielders you'll see that but i think it's just he's hitting the age he's hitting that stuff where he's shown that he's got a bit of a ceiling and that should only be on the way up the question is what does he need to average to be a good pick and i think that's probably
00:27:24
Speaker
the thing that Holmes is very good at thinking about on the way through. What do you think he needs to go at to be a good pick? Because he's priced at 85. He's got to hit triple figures, do you think?
00:27:36
Speaker
Yeah, you're spot on warning. From that price point, he needs to be 100 averaging plus player. Like 100, that's going to be a good pick, but anything more than that, he's going to turn out to be a great pick. And that is what worries me about Tom Green. No one doubts that he's got the talent. No one doubts that there's got the upside. It's just how much upside does he have. And I think a lot of people are getting tricked by that four game sample size.
00:28:00
Speaker
Now we know that he basically was Jacob Hopper, like they're the same sort of player, they're that real in and under at the coalface player that doesn't get a lot of outside ball. So I think for Tom Green to really break out and be a premium, he's going to have to add that sort of outside game and pick up a few marks around the ground for him to really, really bust out. And my sort of worry with Tom Green and these type of players is
00:28:22
Speaker
you know, if that ceiling is a 95 because it's purely in and under, then going from 85 to 95 is not going to get it done. So that kind of worries me a little bit and, you know, I'm pretty big on Josh Kelly as well and if Josh Kelly is going to go 15, 110 and Cobs is going to go 15, 110, then
00:28:40
Speaker
The maths and the data suggest that there's not going to be enough ball for Tom Green to go 100 to 105. It just doesn't work out that way. And with the questions surrounding how GWS are going to play, I think it would be a bit of a ballsy pick to start at Tom Green. But I can definitely see why there's been all this conversation in the pre-season because we do look for opportunity and we do look for upside and it's all there for him.
00:29:01
Speaker
I've got big balls. I think the biggest thing this pre-season though is I feel like there aren't the real upside picks where we're picking a breakout is probably what I'm saying here. We're not really picking as many of these guys that have been there in the past. Yeah, there's some value there. We talked about Macrae and that sort of
00:29:19
Speaker
those sorts of guys but not a lot of those guys in that sub 90 range where you think they can get up there and so there's not a lot of guys that you're going with confidence with that so it might take those ballsy picks with those with those uh yeah selections like a Tom Green there.
00:29:35
Speaker
Yeah, but you don't have to pick someone in that price range, Warnie. Like, I think we kind of get stuck with that where we go, you know, oh, we had a, we had a Crips last year that was priced at 80 and he went, you know, he went 105, whatever he went. So we have to pick someone around that price range. Like, if they're not there to pick, they're not there to pick. Maybe you have to rejig your structure a little bit to get up to some of these more guys that are at the 100 mark that can maybe push the 110 or, or maybe you do have to go right down to a Dom Sheed Warple type that I'm sure we'll talk about later.
00:30:02
Speaker
We don't have to get caught in the trap of picking a player at that price range just because people have done it from there before. I think Selby put out a pretty good tweet a couple of days ago saying he put up five players last year that we all sort of predicted in the preseason to hunt value and none of them paid off. So, you know, it's just one thing to think about. We all get very caught in the preseason that everyone's improving, but some people are going to regress. Some people aren't going to improve by that much. That's just how the footy works.
00:30:29
Speaker
Yeah, structure is going to be a big part
Player Value and Upside
00:30:31
Speaker
of that too. And that's where if you are looking for the value there, which you might need to do depending on our rookies and all that sort of stuff all the way through, because I feel like a lot of us are going to stack forward lines. So we might be shaving a few dollars off with some of these midfield picks.
00:30:46
Speaker
Yeah, and just quickly on what a player needs to average to provide value, I saw, I'm sure you guys would have seen as well, the fantastic data by Jaden Popowski, I hope I'm pronouncing that correctly on Twitter, put out some numbers of what he believes based on statistics a player, each player will need to average to present value. And yeah, for a guy like Tom Green, it was up near that 100 point mark, I think it was 100.8 points is what,
00:31:14
Speaker
you know, you're trying to look for for a player according to some of that data. Yeah, I suppose it's like, what's a better pick, right? If Tom Green goes from 85 to 95, but Dom Sheed goes from 67 to 90, 92, you know, what's, what's the more value it's, you're clearly taking a Dom Sheed. So yeah, if you can break out to 100, he's a far better pick. But yeah, time will tell, I guess.
00:31:38
Speaker
All right, well, I'm going to go to my next player and that is the great man, Joy Newcomb at 775K. Another guy in that price bracket. So a lot of the conversations we've just had maybe can carry over, but I'll just talk about the positives from my perspective on Joy.
00:31:54
Speaker
Taking over the Lee Matthews number three, always a positive sign to start the season. We love seeing those pitches. Same deal that we've talked about. Big names leaving the nest. So Titch and O'Meara both gone. They had 53%, 62% of center bounces respectively, and only each missed one game last year as well. So who's going to fill the void?
00:32:15
Speaker
I know there's plenty of names out there and it's obviously a pre-season watch list. I just think it's gonna be John Newcomb taking another step up. He led the team with attendees as the midfielder last year with 66%. I reckon that's gonna take a big bump. I reckon we're going over 80% pretty easily, which will be probably pretty rare across the competition. And when he attended more than three quarters of center bounces last year, he averaged 94. So that's already a bit of a jump on his starting price for this year.
00:32:44
Speaker
I think we add in the fact it's only his second full preseason, remembering that he came into the system as that mid-season draft day only in 2021. And I just think it's less, it's not just about more midfield time for me. He gets all stat lines, gets marks, and he can spread from the contest, even if my first selection Matt Rau doesn't.
00:33:03
Speaker
and he's just a ferocious tackler. Jack Steel-esque, like, vice grip on those tackles. So someone at Hawthorne's gonna pop. I know Josh Ward is another popular name, but Stado, any interest in Giant Nukem, or am I just, uh, you're gonna dismiss this one as well, mate? Sucks.
00:33:20
Speaker
I just don't really see where the big upside is. So he's priced at 88. If I'm paying for someone to 88, I really want them to be a 105-110 player.
00:33:36
Speaker
He was the number one attendee last year. He might get a smidgen up. His time on ground was 80%. He might get a smidge up. As you said, whenever he had more than 75%, his average was 94. So it's not the data set that sort of really gets me overly excited. Sorry. Tom Mitchell and Jagger Mira stayed around, didn't all wait.
00:34:02
Speaker
No, there's more ball to go around. He only averaged 22 touches last year. Kyle, you disagree as well. God, we're going to go back and listen to this podcast. When I've got the lucks in the garage, you guys are going to look like absolute idiots. Kyle, what do you got to say? Come on.
00:34:16
Speaker
Dossi, I remember, I remember Stado talking to you last year and he kept mentioning that you're just trying to outsmart everyone. And I think you kind of, you see some things and you think, here we go. Like, no one else is seeing this. Dossi's up here. Dossi's on. He's just, Stado, where's the huge upside coming from? Yeah, there's going to be a little bit of natural progression. Like, we get it. He's going to have all the opportunity in the world. But can you really see Giant Nukem averaging over 100 in a young hook side that are going to get belted?
00:34:46
Speaker
But most weeks, that's pretty safe to assume. It's just, it's a, it's a ballsy pick, but I'll tell you what, you pick him, you pick John Newcomen, Matt Mowles. You can have him in draft too, mate. I'll just step away. Listen to me. I'm picking a Hawk. It's either him or Josh Ward. So just wait, wait and see. And I'll let you know. Sam Mitchell could be a new Bevo as well. I tell you what, he wasn't nice to us last year. And I think there could be a few issues with that on the way as well.
00:35:15
Speaker
Yeah, okay. That's a fair point. I don't want to, I don't want to take on a coach, but I just feel like John, you can getting the number three, good signs. I feel like Mitchell, it's his boy. He's the guy that remember put his name up to be basically drafted when he was coaching the VFL. A lot of good signs there for him to be the number one guy again. Uh, Holmes, he takes through your final pickmate before we get into some listener requests.
00:35:37
Speaker
Yep, so my final player, once again, I feel like flying under the radar a little bit. We're all kind of looking at those players priced in the mid 80s, low 90s that are looking to break out and be top 8s, but just keeping around this sort of 100 range. And for the same reason that Jack McRae's value, I'm going to point out that Marcus Bontempelli is also value. So last year, it was well documented that he was carrying injuries throughout the year. He even had to be managed
00:36:05
Speaker
round seven or round eight, don't quote me on that, but he had to miss a game because he just couldn't get up. And he had 58% CBAs last year, and that is going up, no doubt, without Josh Dunkley. And he averaged 108 last year. And yeah, you are basically banking on him having a career best year to push those top eight numbers. But he is in the prime of his career. He's the captain of that club. I can just see a really big year from Bont where his CBAs pushed back up to that 70 plus percent.
00:36:34
Speaker
He pushes forward as well and kicks goals, his points per minute are off the chart and I just see a world where he is actually value and we can get him at 100 and he could potentially be a top eight midfielder. So I'm looking at very closely at Marcus Bontempelli and I think a lot of other people should be as well.
00:36:51
Speaker
Stata, you're on board by the way. Conker, he's just such great value. And as we've seen before, and I think you've owned him Dossie over a 10-week period where he was averaging 108, 110 around that mark, and he was a unique pick and scoring really well.
00:37:10
Speaker
We know with Josh Dunkley out, there are CBAs up for grabs. What is most or the biggest tick for Marcus Bontempeli is I think they've finally got their forward line settled and sorted and in fact actually have depth coming through there. So I would assume their starting midfield will be Liber, Bont and McRae.
00:37:41
Speaker
Yeah, another one to watch. Another guy who, if he plays predominantly midfield, definitely have some interest. I just have a recall. I don't know if the stats will back me up on this. This is just off the noggin. But I recall that I feel like he's one of these guys, like the old Josh Kelly, just retired, Josh Kelly, of the Sydney Swans. He retired too, didn't he, the Sydney one? Josh Kennedy. That sort of built into the season and had big back halves of the year, which is what vintage Sydney version of JPK did.
00:38:10
Speaker
Bon feels like that sort of guy, like I haven't really remembered him exploding out of the blocks like we saw Petraka do say last year and getting off to a good start. But maybe that's a reflection of them giving him more mid time after injuries have actually hit. I think right now he's just straight in there. Yeah.
00:38:31
Speaker
Yep. He averaged one away after the buy and that was with all his sore body and his injuries concerned. So a fit Marcus Montempelli, he could be anything. So I'm currently, he's in my side and it might actually have to take something pretty drastic for him to find himself out at the moment.
00:38:51
Speaker
He showed ceiling there in that back half too, had a couple of 140s so it was a nice ride for those sorts of games too. Obviously we were lucky last year we had that forward status which helped for our classic sides there. But it's just the question I think out of the Bont is is it Bont or Macrae or can you really go both? That's the thing and it'd be nice to have both because both have super upside really. Goes back to the old days when in doubt pick a Geelong player.
00:39:21
Speaker
Yep. ABC. Jay, I wonder if Holmes, he's probably, I hope the listeners get to hear that. Holmes, he's usually very secretive with his player picks. He might get me to edit out the fact that the Bont's currently on his side. So a bit of an exclusive look there for the listeners on today's show. Let's get into their requests. The listeners have provided plenty over at Pod Pod AFL on Twitter.
Listener Requests and Analysis
00:39:43
Speaker
So many to get through we'll try and be pretty quick with this and then we're gonna go through our Lux or sucks Segment in a bit as well Which I've had to put in plenty of names just due to the mass amount of numbers But the first request who's a big popular name this preseason Dom shade warning thoughts mate at 591 K one of the most popular picks at the moment a bargain value at the West Coast Eagles
00:40:07
Speaker
Yeah, he's in my side at the moment. I think there isn't really a reason not to have him there at the minute of that price. So anyone under 600K that can go and do that 90 plus, which I think that he can be. I think the thing about your Eagles there is that they just suck so badly last year. And as a team, they're just upside in general. Obviously he's got the discounts, but I think, yeah, he's there for me at the moment. The question will be maybe with the next one we talk about as well is just going,
00:40:36
Speaker
Can you fit those guys all in there as those mid-price range dudes? Yeah, and how can you fit in a 591k Dom Che when you've got Matty Rowell at 664k morning? It's tough. It's a fine balance. Well, Rowell must be your M1 then.
00:40:54
Speaker
In the one game he played last year, Dom Sheed, 88% of Senate Bounces, so yeah, good signs. That's his role. Yeah, huge. Okay, our next listener request was James Warpool. So yes, another huge name. This preseason, $463,000. Perhaps the alternative that we're looking for for a John Newcomb guy, I mentioned Josh Ward and John Newcomb failed to mention James Warpool at $463,000.
00:41:23
Speaker
Yeah, he's an interesting one. The price is very attractive, of course. Unless I see something massive in the pre-season, I won't seriously consider him. But noting this is a player that's given us 90s average before, and that price is a very good pick. All news coming out at the moment. So when the coach who people thought
00:41:53
Speaker
had an issue with Walpole is mentioning that he's fit and firing and developing is a damn good sign. So it's a watch at the moment, but not with a great deal of interest, but certainly in draft, he'll be way down the board and interested there.
00:42:13
Speaker
Such a tough one. Just a pre-season watch on all those Hawthorn players. And again, a Sam Mitchell watch as well as Warnie has flagged. Luke Davies-Uniac at $824,000. I've talked about him plenty in the pre-season already. Would have been one of my two players had I not already spoken so much about him, but I'll get home to his thoughts on LDU.
00:42:34
Speaker
Yeah, look, once again, he's a very interesting player and I suppose I need to give this one to Warndog, the stat that you boys put up on your podcast for, was it two players for Kangaroos only averaging over 78 last year? Like, that's a damning, damning stat. And once again, these players that you're picking in the 90s price range, you really need them to pop. You really need them to go 105 plus.
00:42:58
Speaker
Look, yeah, we've seen him do it in the back half of the year, but we've seen plenty of other players do it in the back half of the year and then start the season off slow or like they revert back to the norm as they have done before. So in terms of breakout potential, he's got everything there that we need to see. So I can't really begrudge anyone that's looking to pick him. It's not really the way I like to play the game too much. I don't tend to really start these players, but tend to jump on quick if they look like they're going to be a big breakout contender. I think
00:43:27
Speaker
Sam Walsh in 2021 I was exactly the same didn't start him but then saw that midfield roll round one and jumped on him round two with the opportunity so that's what I probably will look to do with LDU use one of my correction trades if it just really looks like he is going to be one of those players that we really need to have this year but at the moment he's not someone I'm looking to start.
00:43:50
Speaker
Warnie, could those stats you threw out there, though, work in the other way in saying that, yes, they were the worst fantasy scoring team last year with Claco coming in? Can we see maybe these numbers, you know, LDU managing a pretty solid average at 92 despite being in a crap team? Could that be maybe a positive reason to go towards a guy like him in that they can increase their fantasy scoring as a team?
00:44:14
Speaker
In a sense, yes, but it's that taking on the unknown, which is a beauty in fantasy that you can do that and pick that, but it's a risk. That's the thing. And because you've got Jai Simpkin there as well, and I think those blokes all might be, you know, yin and yang one week to the next.
00:44:33
Speaker
The other thing that we have failed to mention is that what influence does Ben Cunnington have on that midfield? Now, I'm not saying a 31-year-old Ben Cunnington is going to be back in there for 70% CBAs, but traditionally he has been a midfielder and nothing else. So, you know, once again, when he mentions the unknown, we don't know how that is going to play out and it's going to be pretty risky to pick him around one without actually having seen it in a proper AFL game.
00:44:57
Speaker
That's why I'm leaning towards maybe jumping on him in rounds two, three or four if he pops, but I'd really like to see it first. All right. Despite not talking about it myself, still managed to get a few minutes in there for LDU. Adam Charer.
00:45:13
Speaker
Stado, any interest this year after being a big fan last pre-season? Didn't go there, but Adam Cera, could you go there this pre-season? I was a big fan last year and I think with the right role where he could play in and outside He has massive scoring potential Burnt a little bit last year, but there was a little bit of injury as well. I think his value
00:45:36
Speaker
But I just at that price, I actually want him to be a keeper and I just don't see it. Mind you, I will watch, especially with Sam Walsh out because he might have some ceiling games early.
00:45:51
Speaker
The issue with that, I guess, is how long he's Welsh out for. He's back running this week and all that sort of stuff, which cools you a little bit. Well, that's Sindez Moses. He was back in a couple of weeks, wasn't he? Other players have been out for months. Yeah. No, my heart did sink a little bit for Paddy Dow when I saw him off running those laps again.
00:46:11
Speaker
You see why we go long move on to to Baz Lenka at 935k does he come under the same bracket as these these bons and McCrae's that we're looking at taking a step up it can't be everyone warned dog but could Baz Lenka be the one that goes huge like he did early last year when he had room to just roam free.
00:46:31
Speaker
Well, yeah, he can. And that's what we did see last year. We saw some epic scores from him early on. And I think it, well, he was a pick for a lot of players. They grabbed him when he went through and did that. So he started with a 154, missed the second week, but he went at like pre or up to around 10. So he played the nine games there up to around 10, going at, oh, hang on, that's not worked for me. I need to click that. 118, I think.
00:46:57
Speaker
Yeah 118 it was, yep and so it was huge. Obviously then he had his head butting and a bit of a sniffy sniff and was in a little bit of trouble so you can take a little bit out of that from what happened after that but you've got those, well let's call it the three guys there, McRae, Bont and then Bazlenka. Baz is the most expensive of them as well so
00:47:19
Speaker
You're probably ranking him at number three, but geez, he's shown that ceiling and that's the thing that could excite you with doing that. So I wouldn't go against anyone who wanted to pick him because price at 104, I think he can be a 110 guy, but it's just, yeah, Bevo, where does he rank of those other two? Is there better value in picking McRae and Bont? Or be it like not by much, because it's not a huge price difference between them, but yeah, it's, I like it. I think, I'll just say I like it.
00:47:48
Speaker
Yeah, you got to pick your poison a bit, I think with the dogs and yeah, take your choice. Kyle, maybe a bit of a copy and paste for your LDU comments, but Jai Simkin, any interest in him being the new skipper up at North Melbourne?
00:48:02
Speaker
Yeah, I've been keen on Jai Simpon for a long time. I know I did the Deck of DT article on him last year and once again, he's another one of those players that we've seen average big scores in the back half. I think it was a 105 for the back half of 2021 and we see all these metrics and we think, yeah, we'll pick him at the start of the year, his value and then
00:48:20
Speaker
start of the year back to his 95. So, once again, you know, is he that guy? Is he the tag target? Is LDU the tag target? We don't really know. And as Warnie just said, the unknowns, I think that's going to scare a lot of people off from starting a GY Symphon because you just don't know what you're going to get.
00:48:38
Speaker
Yeah. Next player, Zach Merritt from the Dons. I know you're a Bombers man warning, so you're a bit too biased on this one. We might throw to Stado. 107 average. Can he go better this year under the tutelage of Brad Scott back in the system, Stado?
00:48:53
Speaker
I might go the next two players as one hit, so merit at $9.49 and parish at $8.88. My issue with Essendon this year is most of their midfielders, so we're talking you're adding Cordwell, you're adding Dylan Scheele as well, so that's four, are all 180- Set afield.
00:49:16
Speaker
Yeah, no, that's what I'm getting to is all those four are 183 and shorter. So they need a different mix. And that's why they've been using Stringer for years. So Sederfield plays that role. So all of a sudden you're talking five midfielders. So do they share the time? Is there a mixture of different roles? I think Merritt is a quality pick.
00:49:39
Speaker
I think after last year Parrish has some value but we need to see firstly what the game plan is going to be and secondly what that midfield mix is going to be to get it right. There will be some AFL fantasy value coming out of the Essendon midfield, we just don't know what it looks like yet.
00:50:02
Speaker
The one thing I really like about Zach Merritt at the moment, and this is without seeing any pre-season games, so we don't really know, but the word out of Essendon is that they're stripping everything right back. They're really working on the sort of fundamentals and that controlled ball movement and getting all that right. And if that's the case, if that's what they're sort of working on this.
00:50:21
Speaker
Yeah, Zach Merritt is that perfect midfielder to constantly be hitting up for that little 45 kick on the half back line to really set them up moving forward. So if that's the case and his CBA's remained pretty high and consistent, he could be a very good pick for us. So once again, it's a watch like a lot of these players are, but I could definitely see a world where once again, he's a solid as a rock top eight midfielder and yeah, he might not be that much value, but he's definitely someone to watch, won't he?
00:50:47
Speaker
Well, David King's been doing a lot of track watching and seeing some tweets out, but he's on SCN today and I'll try to put on my David King voice for it. Looks like a lot more kicking and control and switching of the ball. That looked like they were a bit more patient with the ball in hand. I think they will play more of a territory game. So that was out of it today that he said. So that is goes with exactly what's just been said there. And that suits merit super.
00:51:13
Speaker
Absolutely, you're spot on there if that's their game style. The point... It was David King though, so we do have to take a little bit with the grain. That's a fair call. But the point with the 183 and shorter is we'll set a field's 192, so let's not get lost. This was a targeted recruitment.
00:51:36
Speaker
All right, Stado still pushing that. Go Will. Yeah, surprise. Surprise. Sam Flanders somehow didn't manage his way on to the the the midfield podcast. You just don't see it. You just don't see it. Just like you were asking, you just don't see it.
00:51:56
Speaker
All right, Sato, let's move on, mate. 870K for Noah Anderson. Warnie, any interest in a Gold Coast son? I've said don't pick a son, apart from Matt Rell. What about Noah Anderson, who actually does exhibit signs of having a great fantasy game, kind of in that Josh Kelly mold hits all those stat lines?
00:52:14
Speaker
Yeah, I like it. It's just the sort of dude that just sits in the draft game for me at the moment. He's got that 98 average next to him. It might be a gradual build to a 107 average where he might peak, I don't know, but he did show a little bit of ceiling in some games, but not a massive one. That's the biggest thing. There was one game where he had a 141, but I think that might've been that game where he kicked that winning goal too. But the rest, like,
00:52:42
Speaker
You know, there's some in the one tens, in the teens, the one teens, but I can't really go in with any confidence to pick him at price at 98, essentially, at the start. It might be one that, you know, if he's looking good, you can get him at a price and I don't think he's going to burn you too badly. If he did end up starting pretty well, he'd still be achievable to buy. Am I right in saying you're pretty keen on our Anderson this year, HomeZ, or is that inaccurate?
00:53:11
Speaker
Not as a starting option, Doss, but exactly like Warnie, I can see a world where he improves how much I'm not too sure. But I just, I really rate him. Like you mentioned, it's unfortunate that he plays for the Gold Coast Suns. I think he would be quite a valuable player in almost any other team in the competition. And when all the attention's going towards Took Miller, he's able to just do whatever he wants. So he's just got the freedom to play on the inside, play on the outside and
00:53:37
Speaker
I was big on him last year for that breakout from the 80s and he got to 97 so the question is just where can he get to and just for that reason I'm not going to start him but like Warnie said bump him up your draft boards and if he does come out and he looks like he's going to fit right in in that system then you can get on him.
00:53:54
Speaker
I'm going to go through three premium players here and we've talked about a lot of value picks like our Bonts, Petrarchas being really good options to potentially have that plus 10 upside that we're looking for for those starting picks to really get us into that premium territory and be nice value picks.
00:54:12
Speaker
Can these next three big dogs provide any value as well? I want to talk each of you, one of these players, Jack Steele for you, Stado, at edging towards that million dollars. Could he still be a nice starting pick to be that week-to-week captaincy option?
00:54:27
Speaker
He's my M1 at the moment. I think there's probably about five to eight points upside, which is still below his best from a couple of years ago. He just had a little patch last year where he obviously had injury concern. I think he's got upside. I think his value and also a captain choice. So Jack Steele under Ross the boss, who I think he'll get the most out of, is in my team.
00:54:58
Speaker
Warnie, Callum Mills at 983k, a huge year for the Swan Skipper coming off the disappointing grand final. Do you think he can maybe bounce back and lead the troops and maybe put up some huge fantasy scores again in this another year?
00:55:12
Speaker
Well we saw some huge fantasy scores and I think that's the exciting thing about Mills at his best, he's super, he's a captain option and all that sort of stuff but if he can be thrown around in a roll that doesn't suit, well that sucks like he sat in the backlight, he sat in the goal square at points of gains and like that.
00:55:28
Speaker
pretty much sucks. But if you're confident that he's not going to be doing that, that 109 that he's at is easily done and then surpassed, which he's shown the capacity to do that. So might be a little bit of fixture analysis on where he's at. It might be a time that you could jump on him, but I think at some point you'd probably want him because I think he is a top eight, but I'm not sure if that's a price that I'm willing to pay at the start. When there's other guys like these three in this group here that you might be able to get
00:55:58
Speaker
at the same price.
00:56:18
Speaker
Yeah, and that's it. Like, I don't know. It's, well, when watching it, you just didn't even look at them. That's the thing. What were they doing? How were the magnets being thrown around? I'd like to actually analyse that to see where that is, because why wouldn't you have a bloke there that is doing that job and has done that job so well that's one of the first picked in the midfield when they are up and running?
00:56:43
Speaker
Yep. It's an interesting, interesting cause that was a 68 point game too. Like that was not that any swans actually, um, scored anywhere in that game at all, but it was just ugly. And that's one of those ones that you could make as a little bit of a, a blip on the radar type thing. I was trying to look back just to see if he got them all in the first quarter and then moved out when they were getting pumped, but no, it was two center bounces just from the get go. They chose, you know, row bottom Warner Parker and even Papley straight off the bat at the grand final. Yeah. Good pickup.
00:57:13
Speaker
Old homes he always got his finger on the pulse does homesie Let's take you home though mate with yet another son Took Miller. Is there some value starting the super expensive Sun? It's 972 K, but a proven stud in the fantasy arena
00:57:31
Speaker
Yeah look, Dos, I love Took Miller. I have no doubt that he will be a top eight midfielder if not a top four midfielder this year. The one thing I'm kind of toying with in terms of starting him this year is that, so these are his first four games. So they have Sydney, round one, so who knows what Sydney are gonna do there. Then they have Essendon, so potential Caldwell tag. Then they have Geelong, we don't know what Geelong do, but Geelong are always sort of tough to score against.
00:58:00
Speaker
Then they have St Kilda, is there a Windhager tag coming? And then there's Freo, so it's a pretty tough start for Tookmiller. So at this stage, I think I'm probably going to go against him and make him one of my first upgrade targets and hope that he gets away to a slow start with a few tag games early. But I have no doubt that he has the potential to be higher than that 110 for the rest of the year that he's priced at.
00:58:23
Speaker
If people play the game where they don't sort of worry about the tags and they just pick the best players, then I'm not going to talk anyone out of picking him because he's a genuine star. And we've seen those preseason picks. It kind of seems like he's, you know, he's trying to get Gold Coast to their first finals. He's there. He's one of their best players. And I can see him really putting him on his back like he has been the last couple of years and really delivering.
00:58:46
Speaker
All right, that wraps up the primary listener request. We're going to shoot through, and it has to be a genuine Lux or Sucks answer, a one word answer in this new segment. It is Lux or Sucks. We'll be with you there, huh, Lux? What do they just say? I don't like to see what just looks better. What's better?
00:59:14
Speaker
All right, if you don't know what this segment is, we just go through each of these players. They're on kind of the brink of who we might consider super fantasy relevant. There are a couple of interesting names, though, due to the volume of requests we had from the listeners this week. But these picks, warning, are the ones that are either going to win you the Hilux or do they just suck? It is pretty harsh, obviously. It's just for this season. We know that some guys are maybe keeper league picks. Look, we don't really think they suck. This is just the segment, OK? It's Hilux or sucks.
00:59:44
Speaker
Let's start with Locky Whitfield at 804k stato. Sucks. Chad Warner, 785k, warning. Lux. Alright, just quickly, quickly evaluate. Is this how this works though? Like, is this how it works? He could win you a Hilux. He could. If he does what you think he could do. But, I'm not picking him. This is how it works. Ben Keyes, 862k homesy.
01:00:15
Speaker
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01:00:31
Speaker
See, I don't understand this. I'm going to say Lux because I would have said Lux. I would have said Lux. He could be a guy, but no. Yeah. Again, I'm not picking him, but he could when you, oh, hi, Lux. He shakes his head. So I should say, sucks. Usually this, usually this, uh, oh, Holmes is saying no to, to the row bum.
01:00:48
Speaker
Yeah, he's saying no. Okay. All right. Um, we will move on. Yeah. Usually they're not this tough. Usually a worn dog. They're usually a bit more simple on the suck side. Um, Windhager 448 K. He's also a forward, but we've had heaps of requests for Windhager. Holmesy. Nah, sucks. Max Holmes 565 K. Stado. Sucks.
01:01:14
Speaker
Oh, that's a tough one. Sam Berry, 746K. Lots of those pre-season photos of the pipes coming out about Sam Berry. Warndog, are we going to 3K? Sucks. There you go. No, that one sucks for me. Yeah. Karl Aemon, 955K in the Hawthorn Cullors, Holmsey. Sucks.
01:01:35
Speaker
JamesAche698K sucks. I'll pick that one up. George Hewitt, 870K stato. Just don't say it. Say it. Say it. Lux. No, no, sucks. Sucks.
01:01:49
Speaker
Locky Hunter in the demons now. Warndog, 732K. Seems a bit expensive. Is that a Lux or Sucks? Sucks. Finn McGinnis, plenty of room up for Grabza in that midfield at GWS. Sucks. I had this request. Oh, OK, 406K sucks. Xavier O'Halloran, 360K. Same deal in the GWS midfield. That's pretty cheap, Stato. Could we get a Lux pick out of this, though? I don't know. Lux.
01:02:18
Speaker
Whoa! Nah, come on, Slater. 360k. There's space in the GWS midfield. If he gets a solid role and chose his scoring power, which he has got, Lux. Jared Berry, the Devil's 666. Warning. Sucks. Jack Bytel at 305k. May have thrown this one myself in there. Homsey, Lux or Sucks? Jack Bytel, new coach.
01:02:49
Speaker
sucks. Unbelievable. There is a world though. There is a world. Is there a VFL Hilux on offer this year? Yeah, well that's fair. But there is a world that he does play and he does play. 305 is value. Round one. Brag Crouch out. One injury. Lux.
01:03:19
Speaker
Okay, yeah, I'll skip over that last time. That's right. Paddy down. Paddy down. How did that get in there? Did a little copy paste there boys, but now I'll take that one. That's the Lux cause he will be in the squad that is winning it. Now that'll wrap up the episode. We got to thank Warned Dog for coming on. Thanks so much for joining. There's a question I want to ask you though to end up. So we've been asking our listeners to,
01:03:47
Speaker
enter their little reviews and five stars on the podcast on iTunes. Now it's to enter our listener league, which in this case, this year they're doing, we're doing a system where each of us hosts, obviously Louis is not here, but each four of us are going to be drafting listeners to represent us on the spot warning. I just want to ask you, who would you be representing if you were in this listener league? Who do you reckon deserves that the warm dog to be representing? Who do you want to date, mate?
01:04:16
Speaker
Stado probably needs me because it's been a while since he's been anywhere up there to get that. But I reckon actually Holmes, he would be the best one because if you were actually making him happy to want you as part of his team, you've done all right. I reckon that would be the most successful thing you could get in fantasy. Get the Grumpy Man happy. Big tick in the box.
01:04:39
Speaker
Yeah, actually some concerning amount of entries for Stado coming through. I'm getting a bit worried about the amount of love for the old man. All right, well, thanks again, Warnie, for coming on. And that was the Midfielders Pod. We shall see you next week. Make Stado great again.