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What’s to blame for the Sounders’ slow start?
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To help pick up the pieces from the Sounders’ 3-0 loss to San Diego FC, Mark Kastner joins the show with Jeremiah. They point out that San Diego’s press wasn’t nearly as effective as the pundits seemed to think, but also acknowledge that the Sounders aren’t doing nearly enough to create scoring chances.
In this week’s power rankings, they assess blame for the slow start.
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Transcript
Introduction and Sponsor
00:00:01
Speaker
Hi, I'm Will Bruin, and I was just recognized as a Seattle Sounders legend. Now I get to do voice reads for the Sounder at Heart podcast network. Here we go. Come on. Hey, O'Shawn.
00:00:13
Speaker
Let's go. What save by Fry. The Seattle Sounders have done it. MLS Cup winning. Here comes Ruiz Diaz through the middle to cloud it for Seattle.
00:00:29
Speaker
And now they truly can start the celebrations. It's the Sounders MLS Cup. Nico Lidero leaves absolutely no doubt. The Sounders rule the region.
00:00:43
Speaker
Seattle, Sounders, it's got built.
00:00:52
Speaker
This feels fucking awesome. This is a tiny dog. Nice work on your little yacht yat thing. And probably can't say shit. know, what was the thought process in terms of who you decided to use and you didn't?
00:01:06
Speaker
Ever since Salter Hart wrote a commentary that we didn't take over seriously.
00:01:18
Speaker
This episode of Nos Arietes is sponsored by Full Pull Wines, a Seattle-based wine retailer and proud sponsor of Nos Arietes since 2011. Full Pull was founded in 2009, is based in Seattle, and is owned and operated by longtime Sounders supporters.
00:01:32
Speaker
They offer the best boutique wines of the world to members of their mailing list, with special focus on their home, Pacific Northwest.
00:01:43
Speaker
Welcome to another episode of Nos Adientes, part of the Center at Heart Podcast Network, sponsored by Full Pool Wines, our subscribers, and our newest sponsor, BodySpec.
Podcast Details and Initial Reactions
00:01:51
Speaker
We're recording on Wednesday, April 9th, 2025. I am your host, Jeremiah Shan.
00:01:56
Speaker
Joining me today is a friend of the pod, Mark Castor, and our engineer, Lickett. Aaron is unfortunately out right now. Mark, how is it going? How is it going?
00:02:07
Speaker
um I wish the Sounders were playing a little bit better, but it's the start of spring. There's no more snow. Beautiful day there in Minnesota, it looks like. It's been a nice few days.
00:02:20
Speaker
Over the weekend, it was 60 degrees. Yeah, I mean, not a whole lot to complain about outside of the ah the sounds Saturday nights I spend watching the Sounders. Chaos that is the being an American citizen these days, right?
00:02:36
Speaker
Why? What happened?
Sounders vs San Diego Analysis
00:02:40
Speaker
So, ah you know, we're coming off of a week here where the Sounders had one of their worst losses in in a bit. It was it was a pretty good punch, gut punchy kind of loss.
00:02:55
Speaker
you know, I don't want to I don't think we're going to spend a lot of time dissecting this loss, but I did want to get some of your points. broad ideas and and thoughts on it and sort of how that dovetails into the rest of, you know, the the next few weeks and and the season.
00:03:13
Speaker
i I went back through today, actually, and i I wanted to see if my personal recollection was correct because I saw a fair amount of discussion online about how the biggest thing the Sounders struggled with was San Diego's pressure.
00:03:30
Speaker
And i got to say, I watched the game again. I don't think that was really the issue. I think really what the Sounders issue was is what they did once they broke San Diego's pressure and how effective San Diego was at sort of turning counterattacking opportunities into real chances. And so sort of the the two polar opposites of this, what the Sounders did poorly, San Diego did well.
00:03:55
Speaker
But I thought like the Sounders, for instance, I thought the Sounders were very effective in the way that they pressed. They forced a bunch of turnovers from San Diego by ah forcing them to play out of the back in ways that I don't know that San Diego had to do a lot. They were oftentimes content to just kick it long.
00:04:10
Speaker
But the problem was, is that the Sounders just had no... They got caught sleeping repeatedly on, on counterattacking opportunities. They got caught sleeping sort of on that first minute free kicks or a second minute corner kick. Sorry.
00:04:26
Speaker
And was sort of a theme that Brian Schmetzer hit on yesterday when we talked
Coach and Player Critiques
00:04:30
Speaker
to him. And he was talking about how the Sounders just didn't show the sort of vision and creativity that he is expecting from them.
00:04:38
Speaker
He took that somewhat on his own shoulders and said, you know, we clearly didn't set them up very well. But Mark, you had some thoughts on that as well, I think. Yeah, I think right now the the thing that's kind of snakebiting the Sounders in general is um'm I'm sure Sounders fans will be tired to hear like their underlying numbers are good, even coming out of a ah San Diego game where they got shellacked by an expansion team.
00:05:06
Speaker
I really do think that like there's a lack of like creativity and bravery in these last, let's say, handful of games that is just sort of like really unbecoming and like untraditional of a Brian Smetzer team.
00:05:23
Speaker
I have seen b Brian Smetzer coached Sounders team play really bad before. Of course, it's happened. He's been coached for a long time. But I don't, one thing that's kind of different, I would say about this year, as opposed to maybe last year or even previous years where they've had slow starts, is just like, there's just a lack of like,
00:05:49
Speaker
three there's nobody like really kind of grabbing grabbing this team by the scruff of their neck and like dragging them over the finish line. A, that's one thing. B, another thing is just like the lack of like,
00:06:02
Speaker
Nobody's making that brave run. Nobody's trying to do something with the ball that is maybe a little bit unorthodox to just try something. you know like there's just Everything is just so methodical, so structural, so like, well, this is what the rubric says to do.
00:06:21
Speaker
And there's just not... like i don't I don't know if it comes down to like the new formation or the group of players that are playing together. it just There's just not a lot of like what a what, in my opinion, comes down to like bravery on and off the ball from players that have been plenty brave and plenty creative in previous iterations of this team.
Impact of Player Absence and Offensive Struggles
00:06:45
Speaker
Yeah, I think that's a fair criticism. i I do think one of the other things that's hurting the Sounders is that their most dynamic players or some of their most dynamic players are have not been available right now. in And by dynamic, I mean, you know, Jordan Morris being able to make those runs and but behind repeatedly and not you know not just making one or two runs, but just sort of consistently tre stretching the back line. And I think that's, you know, we're seeing – Bits and pieces of dynamism. You know, we see it from, you know, Jesus Ferreira will attempt a run like that every now and then, but he's not doing it with consistency because he's also happy to sort of peel off and receive passes in half spaces and whatnot.
00:07:27
Speaker
Yeah. ah Georgie Munungu is another player who he's capable of making some of those dynamic plays, but he's not going to be your central, you know, he's not going to be that your primary playmaker. That's not what they should be relying on him to do. He's more of a supplemental piece.
00:07:42
Speaker
Albert Rusnak is a player who is very good at what he does, but dynamic movements is not really his bread and butter. And, you know, you're missing a Pedro de la Vega is another player who is who that is his whole deal.
00:07:56
Speaker
his deal is breaking lines with, with runs and dribbles. And, you know, he's, he's willing to sort of float and be unpredictable. and And, you know, I, I go back to also the start of the season, which was, let's remember that they, the center started the season pretty well, you know, after the LAFC game,
00:08:17
Speaker
They were averaging basically two goals a game and were kind of flying in in a lot of ways. And ah huge part of that was Paul Areola and the way he was playing and he what he was allowing the Sounders to do as that left wing back.
00:08:32
Speaker
And i don't think Paul Rothrock has necessarily been bad, but he has not been as good as... as Areola was. And you you sort of take all these incremental steps down.
00:08:45
Speaker
and I think what you're left with is a team that just is not good at these sort of dynamic plays. And that's part of why they've scored one goal in their past four games, which is obviously not good enough.
00:08:59
Speaker
Yeah, it's ah not a recipe of like a championship winning team, however you want to define that. ah And especially when, you know, typically when the Sounders go through scoring droughts, they don't give up three goals.
00:09:19
Speaker
Right. And before this game, they're okay in that sense. Yeah. Yeah. And, well, I think you're kind of bookending really poor Cruz Azul performance with a really Diego performance. Yeah, I'm kind one, honest with you. But, yeah, fair enough.
00:09:36
Speaker
Um, and I think that just like in general, something that I think is lacking in terms of analysis of this team in kind of the, let's say m MOS zeitgeist, you know, so for instance, I'm a real sucker for power rankings and I was reading ah back heels, power rankings and Matt Doyle's power rankings. And there's largely the sentiment that this team will be fine, which they probably will be.
00:10:02
Speaker
Yeah. But, Nobody like realizes that they actually like traveled to Guatemala and Mexico already this season and had to play like, what was it like eight games in 14 days or something crazy like that?
00:10:19
Speaker
it was eight games in six games in 18 days, but go ahead. and but There we go. Yeah. Yeah. Sorry. I will just chalk that up to dyslexia or whatever.
External Factors Affecting Performance
00:10:31
Speaker
um and I think and that's just kind of like that's just kind of what happens when an MLS team crashes out of CONCACAF Champions Cup League trophy, whatever they're calling it now.
00:10:43
Speaker
um Is it just kind of like... there's like i think in them I think every MLS fan experiences like a Men in Black like flash memory thing, and they just forget why that but that happened. But Paul Arriola literally tore his ACL in Mexico.
00:10:59
Speaker
So that happened. Right. And i just think that like that has some knock-on effects, obviously, when you're kind of like... yeah um I think I completely sort of like railroaded the question you actually asked me, but I no i think that was a i think you answered it.
00:11:19
Speaker
I think in general, like it's worth trying to win the CONCACAF tournament. I think it's worth putting kind of all of your eggs in that basket to try to win.
00:11:31
Speaker
The flip side of trying to win that tournament is it happens early in the season. Injuries can happen. And it happens at a point when a play, when certain players bodies aren't just ready for that workload.
00:11:45
Speaker
why Jordan Morris got hurt. You know, unfortunately, Paul Ariel had, ah kind of a catastrophic injury. And then, you know, obviously the minutes and stuff that went into Pedro Devo Vega's legs contributed to his injury as well as the injury um Alex O'Don suffered this past weekend and Albert Rusnak. So um i'm I'm sure people are tired of talking about or hearing that as sort of an excuse. But I think when you have the combination of players that got hurt when they got hurt,
00:12:20
Speaker
you and then to kind of consider everything else at the same time you end up in a place where the sounders are going to be kind of boring and sort of ripe for getting shlacked like they did and that sucks but i don't i don't know what to do beyond being like well i'm glad it's only april Yeah.
00:12:45
Speaker
I mean, I think there is an element of glad it's only April, but the, the other good piece of news is that it does seem like both Jordan Morris and Pedro de la Vega should be back this week. It looks like,
00:12:57
Speaker
you know i don't want to put too many eggs in the Ryan Kent basket because as good as I thought he's looked in practice, I don't hope the Sounders are relying on him for too much production for the immediate future.
00:13:11
Speaker
But there is reason to think that some of this should get better in the short term just because i do think Pedro de la Vega is potentially a ah real ah a real impact player in terms of the way that he's able to affect the the way the Sounders play.
00:13:26
Speaker
Jordan Morris, same thing. and And so there is, i don't think it's, It's it shouldn't be too much panic at this point. Of course, if they don't get a result in Dallas, you know, we're going to be right back where we started. But I still look at this team and I still see a roster that I like a lot of these players. I like what they are trying to do. And the the numbers tell me that they are doing a lot of the things they need to do in order to win games. It's just that they are.
00:13:58
Speaker
losing concentration. Like you said, they are lacking bravery in certain moments. And I don't know if the, I don't know what the fix for that is other than to say, do better, which is a really unsatisfying place to be, I think.
00:14:18
Speaker
Yeah. I think everybody, even people that listen to this, that aren't professional athletes certainly have moments in their job where they're just making
00:14:28
Speaker
like stupid mistakes and you maybe you're on maybe you're a member of a team that is just like there are stupid typos in presentation or just like people show like they're they're everybody knows what it's like to make a mistake and i think everybody also is also acutely familiar with compounding mistakes in one's life and i think the sounders are just kind of in a place where like there's screw ups right now.
00:14:58
Speaker
That's just kind of of like, maybe harsh and unfair, but like that was, I don't, was it the second San Diego goal or the third San Diego goal where it kind of started with the Jackson Reagan turnover?
00:15:09
Speaker
was the third one. Yeah, in that situation, if you were to kind of pause that before Jackson Reagan passed the ball, I think it was more likely that the Sounders were going to score in that situation than San Diego because right they had been playing well. I know San Diego had just scored again, but they they had something to build on in that first half, and then he just did that.
00:15:39
Speaker
So it was just kind of like, Yeah, just stop stop making dumb mistakes. Yeah, you know and I'll give you another example from that game. you know This was a situation that that San Diego didn't actually score from, but I think it was illustrative of the sort of brain fartiness the Sounders were playing with. is i don't know if that's a real term.
00:16:01
Speaker
ah But there was a free kick about 90 yards from goal. And this is another thing that's been a recurring theme this year is I feel like – Throw-ins and and free kicks from deep in the defensive end somehow end up turning into goals against the Sounders. But anyway, I digress.
00:16:17
Speaker
And what happened was ah there was a free kick and they send it long to Chucky Lozano, who is isolated on Kalani Kosarienzi, who you know, you could maybe argue Costa Rienzi should do better on this situation, but the reality is he's one on, he he's in a one-on-one battle with Lozano on the sideline.
00:16:39
Speaker
Lozano wins the ball. And then he's just freeing on goal essentially, because no one is paying attention in the central defense, in the central defense. He is essentially behind all he's he's behind everybody at that point. And there's no reason that he should be behind anyone, frankly.
00:16:56
Speaker
and And he ends up shooting it over the bar, but he he it was a it was a good chance. And it's one of those things where it's like, what are what are we doing here, guys? Why are you allowing Lozano to get behind this way off of a free kick? There's no way in the world that should happen.
00:17:12
Speaker
And was sort of like that. The whole – all these opportunities, especially at the end of the first half where – It's just like you've got people who aren't quite running back the positions they need to be in You've got players that aren't playing sound, you know, positional defense.
00:17:28
Speaker
And I don't know. It was just a cavalcade of cavalcade. don't know. That's the right word. But anyway, it was just one mistake after another. huh A cascade of mistakes?
00:17:42
Speaker
Cascade of mistakes? I think it's cascade of mistakes. There you go. i Yeah. It was just one mistake after another of of players not being aware of of the situation, of you know where you know where they needed to be.
00:17:54
Speaker
And it was just a very disappointing performance because this is also the kind of thing we don't normally see from Brian Spencer coach teams where they just are not turned on and they they just seem to be totally...
00:18:06
Speaker
off their game. And I don't really know what to do about that other than to say, you know, like I said, you just got to, you guys kind of got to be better at this stuff.
Roster Decisions and Fan Engagement
00:18:17
Speaker
Uh, and, I don't know. ah I don't enjoy at all that we are sitting here. And I think that the the most frustrating thing about all this, and I guess this is where I'll i'll put a cap on this part of it, is you know we talked a lot in the preseason. We've talked a lot this season about how deep this team is. And I do think if you go just player by player, this is a deep team. There are a lot of players on this roster who I like, who I think can be very useful and MLS players.
00:18:45
Speaker
But for whatever reason, they're not quite meshing together right now. And what's even more frustrating about that is that most of these guys were here last year and they were sort of meshing. And so i don't i don't I don't know what it is really about this this group that is... like We shouldn't be in the same position we were in last year when there were also a bunch of injuries, but they were different kinds of injuries and they happened in different parts of the season.
00:19:08
Speaker
And they were sort of struggling to play catch-up last year. And this year, it's just... i don't Like you said, it's it's the wrong injuries to the wrong players at the wrong time.
00:19:22
Speaker
Yeah, and I think ah it certainly opens the door for a pretty valid criticism of like how the roster is constructed ah in terms of... like ah yeah so You're never going to hear me be the type of person that's like, we need a $20 million dollars striker like Atlanta got.
00:19:42
Speaker
I don't really care about... like how much money something costs. But what I do care about is like, it is better to move on from certain players a year early than a year late.
00:19:56
Speaker
I think that that's just kind of a good rule of thumb in sports. Like it is better to move on the year before they kind of fall off their peak. Then a year after they do.
00:20:09
Speaker
And we, we saw that with Nico O'Darrow, Raul Ruiz Diaz, maybe Clint Dempsey to an extent, although, you know, that was interesting. And it just is kind of a Sounders thing that they maybe hold on to certain players for a little too long for sentimental reasons.
00:20:27
Speaker
And there are now like maybe handful of guys you're looking at that. It's like, maybe maybe, maybe we shouldn't have kept you around. but And in for kind of the sole purpose of like a fresh face in that position, doing a different thing, training differently ah every day, talking differently every day, just being a different person than the guy you've been around for what's four or five seasons that can kind of have an effect on a locker room and kind of revitalize it.
00:21:00
Speaker
Is it... Probably too early to like call certain players out. Yeah, I agree. But at the same time, like this time last year, we thought the Sounders needed ah complete overhaul.
00:21:13
Speaker
By the end of the season, it was like, oh, maybe they only need a couple of pieces. Well, they went out and got a couple of pieces, good pieces. One of them lasted a month, unfortunately, um which is a real shame.
00:21:29
Speaker
I don't want to make a light of that situation at all. The other one i think is a good player is going to be a good fit long term, but it's being thrusted into a position of like needing to kind of be the it guy on this team, like really, really early into his time here. That's obviously Jesus Ferreira.
00:21:47
Speaker
Um, And now just the vibes are... They suck. The vibes are really terrible. And that invites all sorts of what I would say are really valid criticisms of how kind of ownership in the front office has gone about creating this team.
00:22:03
Speaker
that's the That's the flip side of this coin. you get the You get the preseason flowers. You get all the credit in the world for building a deep team. But if that deep team doesn't perform... right you like You have to take that criticism on the chin of like, maybe we should have like found a different way to get a DP or something in the offseason. I to say, are there particular players that you feel like are are maybe past their sell-by date? i I think if you, regardless of the position, but if somebody is 38 years old, still playing...
00:22:40
Speaker
and probably could make two at least two better saves in a game. i just... Okay. All right. Gloves off, whatever. I haven't been super impressed with Stephen Fry this season.
00:22:51
Speaker
And im I am worried about him in general. I think there are... And then just kind of all all over the place. I think you can name players like Alex Rodon, Yamar, New Who, maybe Jao Paulo, although he's hardly played this season.
00:23:10
Speaker
And sure, maybe even throw Albert Resnack into that mix, even though I'm his biggest fan, apparently. um You just kind of start thinking, like, was this foundation actually there or or what?
00:23:27
Speaker
And I think that, like, It's really important to point out, A, I think this is going to be a good team that could potentially ah compete for MLS Cup this season.
00:23:40
Speaker
But if this just kind of continues to happen throughout May, June, into the summer, like that sucks. like The Sounders kind of threw away their 50-year anniversary season. That was kind of a dud.
00:23:53
Speaker
If they throw away their Club World Cup season, which...
00:23:58
Speaker
Matters to the extent that it is a new thing and they legitimately qualified for it. They're the only team in MLS to legitimately qualify for that.
00:24:08
Speaker
You got like, you got to start thinking of in terms of like, you can't hit a home run unless you swing. And, I know that the money ball like thing is like, get on base, get on base, get on base. But at a certain point you need a guy or you need something to kind of come in and hit the home run or like hit the double at the very least. Yeah. I mean, I see your, I so i definitely see your analogy and I'll, I, I don't, ah without getting into the particular players that you mentioned and I, I, I'm more inclined to,
00:24:45
Speaker
Like I actually think Alec Roldan's been pretty good. I think Roastneck's been pretty good. think they've all fine. Yeah, I think all of them have been. But I think the broader story here is that this was a season that this was an off season that felt like it needed a big shake up.
00:25:02
Speaker
And the Sounders opted not to shake things up almost at all. And they effectively brought back everyone, every contributor. And they they brought in some supplemental pieces.
00:25:14
Speaker
supplemental pieces at players who we weren't sure were even going to be bang on starters. And I think that that's a, that's a and a valid approach. I think it's approach that the Sounders have been taking for the most part for since COVID, but you're right. This was probably a ah year where they could have taken some bigger swings and they opted not to And, and those, and the reasons for that are probably multiple, right? On one hand, I'm i'm sure that there was some thinking,
00:25:46
Speaker
having continuity was going to be a strength. I'm sure there was some budgetary issues where they just didn't feel like they had the money they needed to go out and make big changes.
00:25:58
Speaker
And I'm, you know, and maybe there was some talent identification issues too. I'm honestly ah not not sure. I, I think the issue is talent identification. I think it's more about budget and sort of more of a collective idea that,
00:26:13
Speaker
having continuity was going to be their strength, but... you know, we'll we'll see how this plays out where we are right now is very frustrating. I share in that very much. And I think it certainly calls into question a lot of the assumptions that, you know, we made that I made about how strong this team was going to be going into this year.
00:26:32
Speaker
And ah what a lot of people made, what almost every outside observer looked at this team and said, Oh, this is a supporter shield contender. Obviously there was a lot of fans who said, no, it's not, it's going to be awful.
00:26:44
Speaker
And, You know, a fair number of those fans have been saying the same thing for for several years. And, you know, I guess we'll we'll see how who who ends up being right here. But I suspect it will probably be somewhere in the middle. I never really thought this was a Porter Shield contending team because the Sounders never are a Porter Shield contending team.
00:27:02
Speaker
i think I just don't think they're a Supporter Shield contending club. I don't think... They just don't. This is... Yeah. The Sounders have won the Western Conference, let alone the Supporter Shield, one time.
00:27:14
Speaker
ah like And it was it was the last time it actually mattered, by the way. It was. the That is true. It was the the last time we had... on schedule was the year the Sounders won Supporter Shield. They can put that they can hang that banner.
00:27:26
Speaker
And I'm not and I'm not I'm not just saying that because that happened to be my wedding day. I'm saying that because it that's it back when MLS act like you actually played the Eastern Conference and yeah did all that.
00:27:42
Speaker
Home and a away and everything. I don't want like the last point I want to make is like I don't want somebody to clip the show or like God forbid, jump into my mentions or anything, being like, well, you're you you're the type of guy that kind of always plays in the team. I do.
00:27:59
Speaker
I do think this is a good team. I do think Pedro de la Vega is that playmaker and that sort of difference maker. And I do think in the long run this season, they're going to finish between, let's say, first and fourth in the West, and they'll probably be playing in the Western Conference Final.
00:28:17
Speaker
That's sort of the like expectation I have for this team. And I think that that's a really good season. However, I do want to be sympathetic to this, like you need something to excite this fan base.
00:28:33
Speaker
And think, I think that goes beyond just like winning a couple of games when it matters most, because like, I went to my first Sounders game in first Sounders home game in like two years, a few weeks ago.
00:28:49
Speaker
It was the, ah which game? It was the Houston game. Houston game. very Yeah. Very boring game to go to. Good game to go to Gosh. Yeah. And I'm not trying to draw too many conclusions from just being at that game, but It was incredibly stark, the difference between the last home game i went to, which also happened to be a very boring 1-0 win against Dallas,
00:29:12
Speaker
And the 0-0 draw against Houston. And there's just not an excitement in the stadium anymore. And i don't think one signing does that. I don't think lowering ticket prices probably helps.
00:29:27
Speaker
But I don't think there's like one solve for this thing. But the easiest way to make fans excited is to spend a lot of money on one player. Right. it's it's It's an idea. Craig, if you want to give me a call, I got some ideas.
00:29:43
Speaker
ah Adrian, ah you probably have my number. um Yeah. if if you If you need me to consult on some ideas, let me know. Just throwing that out there.
00:29:54
Speaker
yeah Very, very, ah very big of you to do that. ah Well, I think that's probably a good place to take a break. We're going to come back and we're going to talk about we're going to do our our power rankings feature. That is now a weekly thing this week. We're going to be ranking.
00:30:11
Speaker
What did we do? What did we call this? Ranking the things that are to blame for the sounder start. And ah you you came up with a pretty good list that we'll work off of. So we'll go from there. But yeah,
00:30:23
Speaker
You're listening to Nozadi at This and we'll be right back.
00:30:27
Speaker
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00:30:39
Speaker
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00:31:16
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00:33:04
Speaker
Hacks and Ferments is a proud sponsor of the Sounder at Heart podcast network. Welcome back to Nos Adiates. So we are going to close out today's episode with a feature that we call Power Rankings.
00:33:17
Speaker
And if you haven't heard us do this before, here's a little reminder. Basically, we come up with the subject. We pick five... things to rank in that subject.
00:33:28
Speaker
And then talk about them. So Mark actually came up with these five. I came up the subject, which was why are you to the sound? What would we blame the sounders start on?
00:33:40
Speaker
Mark picked the five things and I'm going to go through and I'm going to rank them myself and then we can kind of discuss them. so we're going to start at number five, number five, you had fixture congestion, which I think is an interesting idea to bring up because we're now
Fixture Congestion and Tactical Concerns
00:33:56
Speaker
three weeks. The Sounders haven't had much fixture condition for the last few weeks, but you still think that there is a legitimate reason why this is impacting their start.
00:34:06
Speaker
Yeah. And I think the reason why that is the case is that there's sort of like a delayed, there can be a delayed effect of,
00:34:20
Speaker
what can happen in fixture, excuse me, fixture congestion, congestion, congestion, right? Yeah. um Um, um, sort of like a delayed effect to like how I can talk apparently.
00:34:33
Speaker
Um, so there's, there's a lot of research sort of like within the world of soccer that like the amount of minutes in a player's legs matters.
00:34:43
Speaker
Like everybody sort of has their, like, level And we're probably going to talk about another sort of issue that I think has been caused from like the Sounders playing a lot of middleweight games early in the season.
00:34:57
Speaker
But I think basically the reason why this matters is that the Sounders... play like had a lot of adrenaline to get through CCL or CCC or whatever it's called, and then they kind of crashed out.
00:35:14
Speaker
there's a There's a lingering effect to those matches, and I think one of the lingering effects is like maybe something that went wrong when they were playing Cruel Zazul is stuck in their head.
00:35:27
Speaker
Or maybe they're just still sort of like not fully... I mean, they should be fully fit. It's almost mid-April now. But like playing that many minutes that early in a season can have some lingering effects.
00:35:43
Speaker
So I would have probably ranked that number five myself. So ah good good start, I'd say. Okay. Yeah, and i I agree. I think that there is some impact there. And I think if you look around the league at the teams that are off to kind of rough starts, LAFC also is off to a rough start.
00:36:02
Speaker
ah Not as rough as the Sounders, but they they do have four losses. ah in 17. There's more losses than the Sounders have. Which is actually more than the Sounders have, exactly. LA Galaxy are off to a very, very, very bad start. I don't know if it's necessarily fixture congestion that's doing them in, but they're off to a very bad start.
00:36:20
Speaker
ah ah RSL is off to a bad start. So it's, you know, you can kind of go down the list and and there are some outliers, Vancouver Whitecaps, that are definitely ah doing quite well. probably the They're probably the best team in the world.
00:36:36
Speaker
and They might be the best team in the world. Columbus crew also undefeated off to a ah ah solid start. Again, these are a good team. Yeah. ah Cincinnati is more middling.
00:36:51
Speaker
they' They've gotten some wins, but they, they aren't necessarily playing quite up to what they were expecting. in you And, you this is, so this is, I think there's some evidence for what you're saying is what I'm saying. Cincinnati is also in Ohio, technically, even though their airport is in Kentucky.
00:37:06
Speaker
Is that true? That's interesting. Yeah. Do they use the Louisville airport? and No, it's just on the other side of the border. Oh, interesting. I think it's, yeah. Yeah.
00:37:20
Speaker
Weird place, man. It is a weird place. So, all right. Well, let's, ah ah yeah, i think I think we're good on that. So number four on your, on what I'm putting number four on your list is harsh end variants. And i I want you to explain what harsh end variants for our listeners. I think they are on the harsh end of variants.
00:37:42
Speaker
I think there there are several... if you do If you do the thing where you play every, if you play out each of the games that they played 100 times, yeah I think they're in the lower percentile of outcomes in a lot of those games.
00:38:00
Speaker
Uh, me, I, and I, Oh, I don't know if I think San Diego is or isn't a perfect example of this. so I'm just going to kind of put it on the other side. But I think for instance, like the Houston or the Charlotte game, or maybe even the San Jose game,
00:38:19
Speaker
um definitely the first leg of the Cruz Azul game. i think that the Sounders have largely played pretty well. And I think that the sort of underlying numbers support that.
00:38:31
Speaker
And the thing about underlying numbers early in a season is there's just a lot of noise in the data and time will tell if that's actually true or not.
00:38:43
Speaker
And I do think that if you kind of look at some of the stuff that's happened,
00:38:51
Speaker
It's probably outside of like dumb mistakes. Probably unfair. They probably could have picked up at least two more wins. And if yeah, two or three, maybe even.
00:39:02
Speaker
Yeah, and then we're we then the vibes don't suck as bad, or at all. The vibes probably don't suck at all if they have two or three more wins. So I think i think that – and i the the main point I have about the variance thing is MLS is a salary-capped league.
00:39:19
Speaker
There's so much controlled spending in this league. And that's where variance is going to sort of like spread like an epidemic where like you're going to have some really good teams that are just going to be bad for no reason.
00:39:34
Speaker
You're going to have maybe some bad teams that way overperform just because the environment is so controlled where in other leagues around the world, that doesn't happen as much.
00:39:47
Speaker
Yeah, so to give a ah some more data to your to your point, the Sounders are on six points through seven games. According to American Soccer Analysis' expected points, which basically looks at each game and and tells you what they would it a assume you should get out of it, the Sounders should be on 10 11 points.
00:40:12
Speaker
ah which I do think would be ah very, yeah I mean, that's at least another win, if not ah potentially two more wins. And I think if you can look at their, their XG performance for the most part, they probably should have at least one or two more wins.
00:40:26
Speaker
They definitely should have won the Charlotte game. They probably should have won the Houston game and they probably should have won the San Jose game. And you, if you have, you give the centers three more wins
00:40:40
Speaker
That's five. mean, that's five. Oh, that's that's ah six more points. It's a very different. It's a very different conversation we're having. That would be sitting on 12 points. So ah three three, three more wins is actually nine more points.
00:40:55
Speaker
So no, three more wins, but they got single points in three of those, all three of those. Oh, you're right. Yeah. Two times three is six. Yeah. You're, you're very right.
00:41:06
Speaker
Yeah. Yeah. I'm going math off here. ah All right. have What happens when you have two what happens when you have two writers do math together? Right. Exactly.
00:41:17
Speaker
ah All right. So number three, lack of imagination. And this is more you said a more of a broader criticism of the coach, the formation, the selection. And yeah, I think that that's you're what you're basically saying is the Sounders could have been doing more to tactically to improve their results.
00:41:37
Speaker
Yeah, and I think what i what I kind of meant by that point was ah something I talked about earlier in the show in terms of like their lack of bravery and their sort of like really off-ball runs.
00:41:49
Speaker
um I thought b Brian Smetzer said something really interesting in his kind of media availability yesterday, which I watched on YouTube. ah where he he sort of identified the problem as like a lack of vision by certain players off of the ball with the runs that they make. And I think he singled out Paul Rothrock in particular.
00:42:10
Speaker
i don't i don't know if I would like totally say this is like individual players or what, but I think there's just a broader sense around this team right now of like that just extra half percent or that extra little thing to do to make that run or make that movement or try that pass just isn't there right now.
00:42:36
Speaker
I think that's because like we talked about earlier, the lack of dynamic players on the field. i think there is sort of a commitment to, a particular play style that probably doesn't fit the players that are available right now.
00:42:53
Speaker
Um, and yeah, I like, there's a lot of chatter about the formation and whether that should change or what, but this formation like looks a little different, but it really just isn't that different than how they played last year.
00:43:11
Speaker
um, the social media team tweeted out a different combination of numbers on a formation graphic. Like if you're going to play new who, this is how new who should play.
00:43:24
Speaker
Like he shouldn't be an overlapping left back. He should be this type of player or right and like Christian. I agree with you there. I think that the, to me, the conversation around the formation is maybe a little,
00:43:40
Speaker
like a little missing the mark because it it feels like they're ultimately building, they're building out basically this in a similar way. Although the the idea here, and this is where I think it's interesting is like the idea here this year was that they were going to be able to commit an extra number forward.
00:43:54
Speaker
And I do wonder if that number is, Catching them on the back end, you know, like they're they're maybe be a little bit more prone to giving up counterattacks and they seem like this year they've been that's been biting them. But I don't think they can afford to do less offensively than they're doing now.
00:44:13
Speaker
Like that's a that's sort of one they're just going to have figure out. I don't actually think it's biting them on the back end. I do think it's biting them in the midfield. OK, yeah, fair enough.
00:44:24
Speaker
All right. So number two, simply the lack of a Morris alternative at striker. And I think that this is this is really interesting because I think this was the thing that most people identified as being the biggest need this offseason.
00:44:40
Speaker
It was also the thing that the sounder seemingly addressed and it has not worked out. Yeah, I think that in this formation, Jesus Ferreira is a terrible art alternative, at least at this point in the season, to what Jordan Morris offered.
00:44:55
Speaker
They're completely different players. um I think that the criticism of Jesus Ferreira's first half against San jose
00:45:07
Speaker
warranted, but reached a tipping point for me where I thought it was like just harsh and certain people were just kind of downright mean about it, especially with how he played in the second half and how that game ended up just being sort of fine.
00:45:25
Speaker
If you get a point away to San Jose, you're in a vacuum. You'll kind of just take that at any point in the season. Yeah. But it's about what Jordan Morris does. And something that sticks out in particular is something Matt Doyle said on this podcast early in the season.
00:45:44
Speaker
just i think I think you asked him a question about, like is Jordan Morris worth a DB contract or whatever? Yeah. and I do vaguely remember this.
00:45:54
Speaker
Matt Doyle said something that I really appreciate. It put words to something that I've like felt for several years now watching Jordan Morris play. Jordan Morris is a type of player that has gravitas around him. He attracts gravity. like There's a lot of gravity around Jordan Morris.
00:46:14
Speaker
Even when he's not playing well, he occupies defenders. the defense or just sort of ah team in general needs to know where Jordan Morris is at all times. And that's just the type of player he is.
00:46:28
Speaker
he is a different type of striker to Raul Ruiz Diaz. He is a different type of striker to a lot of the strikers in MLS actually. And I think that that's why it's really hard to quantify his contract.
00:46:39
Speaker
However, one thing he does is he will make a run that opens up so much space for the rest of the team. And even if he doesn't get the ball and there's just nobody that does that right now, Danny Mussovsky probably does it to like,
00:46:58
Speaker
a 40% level, one which is why I think the Sounders have looked really good when Danny Masofsky plays is because like he does that stuff, right? It's a less, it's not that player.
00:47:11
Speaker
It is funny because Masofsky is, i think the eye catches the ire of a lot of Sounders fans because he's not putting up, he's not scoring. Right. And I think that's a, it's a fair thing to want your backup striker to do is to score when he gets those opportunities. And,
00:47:26
Speaker
Even in this game against San Diego, he had a couple of decent looks and he didn't didn't convert. And so this is sort of an ongoing concern. But what he does do well is he does mimic.
00:47:37
Speaker
He is sort of like a poor man's version of Jordan Morris. And that's kind of what you want. You want someone that's going to play in the same style, even if he's not going to be as good like you. This is MLS. It's not realistic to think that you're going to have backups that are just as good as your starters and at every position.
00:47:53
Speaker
But i i do I can't help but wonder if this game against San Diego is a little bit differently Masofsky was fully fit to be able to play in it. And, you know, it's – I don't know. that's It's probably not worth getting into that particular debate. But I do think Masofsky potentially is a good Jordan Morris backup.
00:48:15
Speaker
But what we're learning is that Ferreira is – the Sounders just have to play differently Ferreira is going to be the nine. They haven't had a lot of time with him at the nine, admittedly. And it doesn't look like they, you know, so I don't know. we'll We'll see. We'll see how this goes. My suspicion is that Ferreira is going to start at the ten at one of the 210 spots. I think we're going to see the 3-4-2-1 again.
00:48:37
Speaker
But it looks like Morris might be able to start. So that would be that would be good And I think that will you know put this particular element to test for sure. But number one, I think it's hard to escape that injuries to the right players at the or the wrong players at the wrong time.
Injury Impact and Future Optimism
00:48:53
Speaker
You said the right player. I don't know how you want to say it. But the injuries are impossible. it's It's not that you can look at any anyone of these injuries and say this should not have been this big of a deal, but you look at sort of like what we talked about earlier in the show. You look at all the entries that happened and you look at who they happened to and you look at when they, and they all happened at once.
00:49:15
Speaker
Hard to escape, but that's still feels like the number one culprit here. Yeah. I think, I think this team was, yeah you know I think if you had like a really honest Craig Weibel and Brian Spencer in the offseason, I think they would have both said, like there's going to be a stretch of games where Pedro De La Vega is injured.
00:49:36
Speaker
There's going to be a stretch of games where Jordan Morris is injured. Maybe somebody on the team tears his ACL. Maybe that's Paul Areola. I don't think even in their sort of like worst imaginations, they would have said all of that's going happen in the same two weeks.
00:49:54
Speaker
No, not in two weeks. And sorry, in the span of four days. Yeah. All of that's going to happen between a Tuesday and a Sunday. And. like ah Really, the only person that I can think of that had a worse week than that, and I'm not going to make that joke. Never mind.
00:50:11
Speaker
I was going I was trying to shoe in a youth pastor joke, but I couldn't get there. um but i just I just think like the timing of those three injuries, how they happened, when they happened, the fact that they got knocked out of the CONCACAF thing, it all just kind of sucked.
00:50:31
Speaker
And I think that the Sounders would be like, okay, so for instance, we we just talked about kind of Jesus Ferreira being a stand-in for Jordan Morris. I think if Jesus Ferreira is playing at the number nine and Pedro de la Vega is playing on that kind of right side 10, think that that works, especially because if Albert Rusnak's on that other sort of like half space, I think that combination of players works.
00:50:57
Speaker
And I think if it, especially if If there's sort like some dynamism happening like on the wings from from the wingbacks, I think that combination works. I think if Jesus Ferreira and Jordan Morris are able to play together in kind of Morris at the nine, Ferreira either kind of underneath him as a second striker or in one of kind of these number 10 things. I think that works.
00:51:18
Speaker
But the fact that in particular, both Jordan Morris and Pedro de la Vega got hurt at the same time just is the like...
00:51:31
Speaker
just knocks the wind out of you in the way like, if you crash your bike really bad when you're a kid, you're going to be fine long-term, but it just like, it's such a shock to the system in that like moment that yeah it makes sense that they've just lacked a sort of like dynamic, uh, attack since that happened.
00:51:52
Speaker
Yeah. I, I, I would agree with all that. I, I think, The other thing is, it's funny because I feel like the conversation around Pedro was starting to change because he was playing well.
00:52:05
Speaker
But now we're going back to like just looking at his MLS numbers, and he doesn't score an MLS. And so we're kind of back to like, oh, you know this guy is kind of a bust.
00:52:17
Speaker
i'm I'm bullish. I'm just going to put it out here. I'm bullish on Pedro Delevege. If he stays healthy, which is admittedly a big if, I think he's going to produce. I think he looked great in CONCACAF Champions Cup. Admittedly, they were...
00:52:30
Speaker
goals against you know maybe not the best opponent but he's just showing some level of dynamism that ah we haven't seen from him before that with the centers don't really have otherwise and you know i'm hopeful that if he's fully bay and i thought he looked good against san diego uh you know he he brought some energy he uh you know granted this is a team he wasn't playing against a team who was playing the center straight up at that point but I was encouraged by what I saw.
00:52:58
Speaker
I'm not ready to throw in the towel on this. I'm not ready to admit the eat all the crow. Everyone, the the detractors would like us to eat. I suppose I still think this is a, there's, there's a way forward here, but I will also say that I'm not going to be here next week to answer for any of this.
00:53:14
Speaker
ah You and Aaron are going to be doing the show next week. I am going to Mexico to visit my wife's, my wife and I and kids are going to go to Mexico and visiting family there. So hopefully that goes well.
00:53:27
Speaker
ah Hopefully I come back and and the mood is improved and everyone is excited. And if not, I guess that's that's how it goes. I think if you're filling in, Mark.
00:53:40
Speaker
Yeah, I think if the sound is when while you're in Mexico, i'm going to stay again. hey Yeah, that's what happened last time I went to Mexico. Or no, into Hawaii. Sorry. That was when I was going to Hawaii. But yeah yeah, you just go when you go on vacation and you they played pretty well against Pumas when you went to the game there.
00:53:59
Speaker
Right. They did. Yeah, they did. Yeah. That's good point. I might have to keep going to Mexico. I don't. Yeah. I mean, maybe we need a few more subscribers for that.
00:54:10
Speaker
Yeah. Happen. But ah just an idea, you know, yeah when, when things are going wrong, you, you got to think outside of the box and I'm, I'm thinking maybe these are the sacrifices I'm willing to make.
00:54:22
Speaker
Yeah. So. all right. Well, ah Mark, thanks again for filling in for Aaron. ah Thanks for filling ahead of time. Thanks for filling in next week. ah A little bit more.
00:54:34
Speaker
ah housekeeping. I'm going to be doing a show with Nico later in the week. So I guess you will hear from me again. i i will also be doing a podcast. I did an interview with Wade Weber to sort of preview the open cup game on Tuesday.
00:54:49
Speaker
So that'll be another, you're going to hear from me. You just, I'm not going to be here to talk about the game on Saturday is all I'm saying, but, Anyway, thank you to our sponsors, Full Pool Wines, BodySpec, Haxin Ferments as well.
00:55:04
Speaker
I am Jeremiah Oshan signing off for Mark Kastner and Lickett. This is No Sadie at This. And remember, you'll never get alone.
00:55:37
Speaker
I expect an LAFC who's motivated ah to prove themselves at home, to prove to their fans that they they're capable of winning in this league. And it's up to us to really brew in the party.
00:55:51
Speaker
You guys like that? and ah what Awkward joke, dad joke right there, huh?