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Has there ever been a bigger gap between performance and expectation?
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The Seattle Sounders turned easily their most disappointing performance of the season. What makes it sting even worse is that expectations were quite high for their game against the Vancouver Whitecaps, who were missing more than half their starters and were coming off a nearly team-wide bout of “gastrointestinal symptoms.” The Sounders responded by looking flat and almost uninterested at times.
Jeremiah and Aaron dig into that performance before power-ranking the five teams they each think have the best shots at winning the Club World Cup.
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Transcript
Introduction to Will Bruin and Episode Sponsorship
00:00:01
Speaker
Hi, I'm Will Bruin, and I was just recognized as a Seattle Sounders legend. Now I get to do voice reads for the Sounder at Heart podcast network. Here we go. Come on. Hey, O'Shaughnessy.
00:00:14
Speaker
Let's go. What save by Frye.
Seattle Sounders' MLS Cup Victory
00:00:18
Speaker
The Seattle Sounders have done it. MLS Cup winning. Here comes Ruiz Dias through the middle to crowd it for Seattle.
00:00:29
Speaker
And now they truly can start the celebrations. It's the Sounders MLS Cup. Nico Lodero leaves absolutely no doubt. The Sounders rule the region.
00:00:43
Speaker
Seattle, Sounders, it's got built.
00:00:52
Speaker
This feels fucking awesome. This is a tiny dog. Nice work on your little yacht yat thing. And Portland can't say shit. know, what was the thought process in terms of who you decided to use and who you didn't?
00:01:06
Speaker
Ever since Southert Hart wrote a commentary that we didn't take over coming seriously. Go, not Seattle!
00:01:18
Speaker
This episode of Nos Arietes is sponsored by Full Pull Wines, a Seattle-based wine retailer and proud sponsor of Nos Arietes since 2011. Full Pull was founded in 2009, is based in Seattle, and is owned and operated by longtime Sounder supporters.
00:01:32
Speaker
They offer the best boutique wines of the world to members of their mailing list, with special focus on their home, Pacific Northwest.
00:01:43
Speaker
Welcome to another episode of Nos Adiates, part of the Sounder at Heart podcast network, sponsored by Full Pull Wines, Hacks and Ferments, and our
Recent Challenges Facing the Sounders
00:01:51
Speaker
subscribers. We're recording on Tuesday, June 10th, 2025. am your host, Jeremiah Shan.
00:01:56
Speaker
Joining me today is my co-host, Aaron Campo, and our producer, Lick It!, Well, Aaron, this was in quite a week in in many, many ways.
00:02:08
Speaker
But we are now approaching the Club World Cup. And it's funny to think, you know, just a couple of weeks ago, the Sounders felt like they were flying high and they were just soaring into this Club World Cup. There was ah a pretty felt like a pretty realistic path to them.
00:02:24
Speaker
getting even with the white caps at the top of the Western conference. And yet here we are after two straight losses, the last one, a three zero loss at Vancouver. And it's not just the three zero loss. It's that Vancouver was missing nine players, seven of them starters. And then half the other, the rest of the guys had been sick all week. And this was, you know, they were, they were like talking about trying to get out of this game.
00:02:46
Speaker
And, and, and sure enough, it was the Sounders who didn't show up.
00:02:52
Speaker
Yeah, it's, uh, it's really hard to, uh, think of what to say about a game like that. And i think in a vacuum, maybe you just say, oh, you know, weird stuff happens over the course of an MLS season. But I think in the context of the last month or so of performances, it's, it's really concerning. It's, uh,
00:03:13
Speaker
You know, i I think obviously the scoreline doesn't necessarily reflect the actual game up and until but sending on the off the sendings off, I guess. Yeah.
Controversial Referee Decisions in Sounders' Matches
00:03:23
Speaker
The Whitecaps were had one no when knew who was sent off, but I didn't think they'd really been any better. i thought the Sounders looked oh capable of scoring. and and And I felt like if the Sounders got a goal, they they were.
00:03:35
Speaker
You know, good, good bet to get another one um that was a young Vancouver team that, you know, played well, like I don't want to take anything away from them, but that game still very much felt in the balance when you have got sent off.
00:03:50
Speaker
Yeah. Even after. even after all got sent off, the sounders created a couple of decent chances and it was still one day. Then they had a, they had like a penalty shout and they had a, you know, the the thing that they honestly, they had like a dog. So red shout too, because there was a play over the top where the defender looked like he handled the ball and he was the last defender.
00:04:11
Speaker
ah Very similar to the Houston game ah where there was a dog. So red, And it was interesting because like i don't, I'm not going to blame the refereeing on this game. The Sounders shot themselves in the foot. They did not create enough chances. They, they own this game, but I also think it's fair to be a little frustrated with the refereeing in this one knew who's red stone cold.
00:04:35
Speaker
I got no issue with that.
Sounders' Tactical Struggles and Defensive Issues
00:04:37
Speaker
He gets beat. He takes a bad angle. He drags the defender down. he's the only defend He's the only defender back. That's going to be a red almost every single time.
00:04:47
Speaker
The John Bell one, especially the fact that it's like three minutes later, their feet kind of get tangled up. Maybe. like I don't know. i've I've been watching these replays and I and i realize you kind of see what you want in these.
00:04:59
Speaker
I don't know how obvious it is that he actually them. it's... like it's It looks kind of like he stumbles a little bit to me. i I don't know. But either way, Christian rolled on. Looks like he's in a position to recover.
00:05:13
Speaker
And it feels to me like this is a classic situation you see many times where, look, I just sent a guy off. I don't need to send another guy off. And he didn't hesitate. He was like ready to pull the red.
00:05:26
Speaker
And then after that, he seemed to have no real interest in ah sort of like evening and up, I guess. Like not that. Not that you really want that literally, but I don't know. It was just a very frustrating refereeing game. And i don't, again, not to excuse the Sounders play, the Sounders played like dog crap. Like they didn't deserve points out of that game after everything that happened, but still frustrating.
00:05:54
Speaker
Extremely frustrating. Yeah. I think that I I'm actually less convinced that the new who a call was ah was as clear of a red card as everybody else seems to be. Yeah. I don't, i'm I don't think that it's one that if it's called, you can complain too much.
00:06:11
Speaker
I do think that the angle there and the fact that there were players in so some somewhat in the vicinity that had ah an angle on the ball is enough for me to say I don't think it's cut and dried dogs out, but I'm willing to concede that one, right?
00:06:27
Speaker
Okay. The Bell one, I think, is just an awful, awful call. I just... i I'm with you. I'm totally not convinced there was any contact and that if there was contact that it's clearly Bell's fault.
00:06:41
Speaker
ah And beyond that, I think that there's clearly another player in in the neighborhood and and capable of cleaning that up. I don't think it's a dog's own all. um I feel like that is a call that you see go against your team or not go against your team that you see.
00:06:59
Speaker
ah Your team suffered a foul in that situation probably 10 times a year, that exact play. And I think maybe once, maybe it gets called as as a dog. And I think if it does, you feel like you got real, real lucky.
00:07:11
Speaker
um So, yeah, I think like it's it's very clear that those reds change the game. The one I knew who, even though I'm i'm less convinced, I think, than the consensus that it was a red card, I think it's a really awful foul that knew who can't be given up.
00:07:26
Speaker
um I just that's i'm I'm watching it again now and I see what you're saying as far as the there's like Reagan seems like he's in position to defend it but honestly that's kind of what makes it more annoying is that he doesn't need to drag him down there. Like if like he knows he has to know that there is danger. It's a dangerous situation. Like he is potentially going to get a dog. So red there and he just has to know better than, than to do that.
00:07:58
Speaker
ah It's just, and he misplays it. He misplays it. That's bad. But then he just completely compounds the mistake by, by dragging down the, the attacker. I'm, I can, I guess I can see how this wouldn't be a red. Like there's a world where he's far enough from the goal where, you know, he's at a bad angle.
00:08:17
Speaker
He's not totally in on like, I don't think he's actually I mean, I guess to your point, if he if he doesn't get tackled and he cuts in, he's not just in. He's he's got to beat another defender still. So in that sense, you're you're probably right. it It might not be a like dog. So is probably harsh there.
00:08:35
Speaker
I just am more annoyed at the kind of brain dead decision Newton's part. I think it's a red card often enough that you cannot allow the referee to make the determination. Right. i think that's That's sort of my point.
00:08:50
Speaker
And I also just think like everybody makes mistakes. Every player makes mistakes. This specifically is the thing that justifies Nuhu being on the field.
00:09:01
Speaker
This exact situation. and Right. Like desperation defending. Yeah. Yeah, yeah and he just he just gets beat. And then instead I think there's a way you make that foul there that it doesn't get called a red card.
00:09:11
Speaker
I think it was the combination of being sort of borderline dog, though, and being a horse collar tackle. Yeah, that makes it much easier for the referee to pull the red card there. And and I guess to the larger point of the game, right, because I think we both agree that the performance was not good enough, regardless of the red cards.
00:09:31
Speaker
it was indicative of just that kind of bad decision-making that this team, frankly, is, is too experienced to be making those kinds of decisions. They, I totally agree.
00:09:43
Speaker
Yeah, totally agree. Like this is a, a team this is the strength of this team is supposed to be that they don't beat themselves. That's yeah like,
Club World Cup Ambitions and Challenges
00:09:52
Speaker
they aren't necessarily the highest ceiling team, but they don't beat themselves. That's sort of the, that's their thing.
00:09:58
Speaker
And, This game especially, especially they just beat themselves. They they really did. ah They didn't put any shots on frame. And I guess you go, oh, well, you play 35 minutes down two men. how many How many shots on – how dangerous are you going be? Well, okay, fair enough. But they played 50 minutes 11 v 11, and they didn't put any shots on frame in those either.
00:10:23
Speaker
And they really only had a couple good looks. i i It was just a ah performance where it didn't feel like their heads were ever in it. and i don't and i And I think that there is something to be said about the distractions that are around this team, namely the distractions around the whole Club World Cup bonus thing.
00:10:42
Speaker
But I actually thought that Kalani Kosarienzi in the postgame had some very astute observations, which is, yeah, this is a distraction. Yeah, this sucks, but we can't use that. That can't be an excuse. We still have to go out. yeah We have to perform. This is why we're doing this. We're not like the bonuses ultimately are not that much.
00:11:00
Speaker
Or, you know, it's a temporary. It's don't get me wrong. I'm sure these guys would rather have an extra 40 or $50,000 pocket not. But. but not but That's not why they're none of these guys are doing this for the for that money. Like this is all it's all about building towards something bigger and better.
00:11:18
Speaker
And to just throw away two games. Seemingly, in at least in part, because you are distracted, that's not like that it. Let's like let me be clear here.
00:11:30
Speaker
the distract it's okay to be distracted. It's okay to be frustrated. It's okay to feel like you want to make a big deal out of this. I'm not diminishing the case that the players have, but you still got to go out and you got to perform.
00:11:44
Speaker
And I think that's kind of the point that Schmetzer was maybe not so eloquently making, which is look, I think the effort was there, but you are, but the players are opening themselves up for this criticism by playing badly two weeks in a row.
00:11:59
Speaker
And they did play badly two weeks in a row. They played below their standards. And I think the other thing that's frustrating is they they had, you know, the two games before that, they'd ground out these hard wins. They had beaten pretty good teams.
00:12:13
Speaker
And they weren't necessarily playing great, but they figured out how to win. And then they played two teams who were, look, the Whitecaps are a very good team. This was not their A team. Minnesota is a pretty good team. I'm not convinced that Minnesota is that great like is that good.
00:12:30
Speaker
ah And they just made dumb mistakes. It's very, very frustrating. It is. It really is. And like that Minnesota game should have been a ah win.
00:12:41
Speaker
um you should expect to beat that Minnesota team at home. If you have the aspirations that you have, you should expect to beat that specific white caps team, or at least get a point, right?
00:12:52
Speaker
If you're playing the full meal, they have like beat to have to be, they have to be, they do. The white cap was a must, was basically a must win game from like, if you put it on paper that you're going to get to play the white caps on full rest,
00:13:05
Speaker
They're coming off of an emotional loss. They got sick the week before. And oh, by the way, their starter, they're they're missing almost all their best players. You got to win that game.
00:13:17
Speaker
You really do. and You really do. But even if you're trying to be nice, right? Right. Yeah, yeah, sure. um But yeah, I and it's just I think that the the one of the the main things that's really frustrating to me about.
00:13:31
Speaker
um these last two games especially, and it's it's a complaint that I have about the last, I don't know, six weeks, I guess, in general, but but really the last two games are when it's actually cost them in terms of points, is that Minnesota is a team that sits deep and looks to counter, and they're extremely good at it, right? Yeah. Yeah.
00:13:55
Speaker
The Whitecaps are a team who typically they they do counter really well, but they don't sit deep. They obviously like a lot of possession. they have that kind of highpressing thing going on. um But in this game, they just want to sit back.
00:14:07
Speaker
Yeah, they sat deep and they look to counter and they looked reasonably effective going forward, but they didn't look that good going forward. I think in both of those games. They looked good going forward after the red cards. I mean, that's, I mean, they looked okay. I mean, they, they got ah a penalty and then a goal that was, you know, a 22 yard strike where you, but you don't have enough players to really close them out, but go on. Right. Yeah. um I think that, and and the Sounders as well have been a team that when they have looked their best, and this is not just this year, this is the last couple of years to me, they have looked their best when they are not looking to dominate possession.
00:14:47
Speaker
when they are looking to press teams, when the opportunity is right, when they're looking to, to try to get out on the counter, from when they're looking to go from front to back quickly, that's when they've looked their best.
00:14:59
Speaker
That's when they've looked their most dangerous. That's when they have had their best results. It's what they did down the stretch and and into the playoffs last year and had a great deal of success. It's what they were doing earlier this season when they looked like one of the better teams in the league.
00:15:13
Speaker
And For whatever reason, they decide they want to go back to being this team that dominates possession, dominates the ball, and unlocks defenses. But the problem is that they can't unlock the defenses.
00:15:25
Speaker
They've shown no repeatable ability to unlock the defenses, especially the ones that are set this deep. You have to give these teams the ball and say, right, here you go. Come at us. We are letting you have the ball. What can you do with it?
00:15:38
Speaker
Because they don't want the ball either. you know You have to turn this into a cagey or game rather than just continually... continuously pounding your head into the wall. And if you're going to continuously pound your head into the wall, then one or two of your dribbly wingers, both of them ideally should be trying to take on guys and get to the inline instead of doing a couple of step overs and passing backwards.
00:16:01
Speaker
It's crazy. Like that's why you go out and get a player like Pedro de la Vega. That's why you go out and get a player like Ryan Kent. But it seems like everybody is so terrified of turning the ball over that they won't try to take anybody on. They're just trying to,
00:16:13
Speaker
get into the channels, get into the channels, but not by dribbling past anyone, by trying to work the ball into the channels. And it's just, we have a ton of evidence to suggest that they are not capable of being effective in the attack this way. And they keep going back to it. And I do not understand it.
00:16:28
Speaker
Yeah. I it's, it does feel like this was maybe a team who, like, I don't know. I don't know if if moving away from the three, four, two, one was a mistake.
00:16:40
Speaker
but it did feel like they were a little bit more aggressive sometimes in, in the way that they approached certain things. um The, the four, two, three, one is, you know, like I, I i like the thought of, of Kent and, and De La Vega as the wingers there, but,
00:16:59
Speaker
and And I suppose in theory, that was the that was the formation that would have worked with Jesus Ferreira as the number nine. But this was also a game that felt like it was calling for Danny Masofsky. Yeah, absolutely.
00:17:12
Speaker
Yeah. I...
00:17:16
Speaker
It's, you know, I don't know. It's, it's very, it's, I i don't quite under ah understand the, I mean, I don't know. I guess ah there was some, there's logic. I don't want to say there's not logic to the Jesus Ferreira playing number nine when Masofsky is, you know, reason playing reasonably well, but yeah, it, it, and, and this was Spencer admitted it was, it was probably a mistake in hindsight, especially if, you know, seeing how, how,
00:17:47
Speaker
Vancouver approach this game, but it's, it's just, yeah. I mean, I don't know.
00:17:57
Speaker
I don't know. I don't know. It's very, it's very, and it's, it it's just, this is not, it's, it's very frustrating to be going into the club world cup and you just miss you. They're missing so many pieces. The fact that Jordan Morris gets hurt in the, in the, you know, in training the week heading into this game,
00:18:14
Speaker
It looked like he was going to be ready for the Club World Cup. ah That Yeymar, apparently, it sounds like he may have suffered a setback as well. So it doesn't look like he's going to be ready for the Club World Cup. I don't know what's going on with Kim. i don't know if he'll make a miraculous return.
00:18:29
Speaker
But, you know, I think we're seeing some of the front, you know, like John Bell and John Bell's not a bad player, but he shouldn't be starting. Jackson Reagan, I think is a very good player, but he needs like a ah real sort of like lock it down defender next to him.
00:18:48
Speaker
Um, and, but then at the same time, like knew who I thought knew was mainly at fault for the first two, you know, for the first goal. And then of course the the red card, he's not marking anyone on the, on that pass into the box.
00:19:03
Speaker
Like what's he doing there? Uh, knew who's out on the field to be your sort of you know like super, super, like the whole point of his, his, his whole value proposition is that he is a great defender and he makes two massive mistakes in this game that cost the Sounders, uh, horribly. Uh, right.
00:19:26
Speaker
Yeah. know if And not just, not just, sorry to interrupt, but not just that he's a great defender, that he is a great defender in those specific situations. Right. His one V one defending is his last gasp defending. That's why he's in the lineup.
00:19:43
Speaker
Yeah. ah Well, it doesn't fill me with ah and for anticipation and hope going into the Club World Cup. I mean, it's ah it's hard to overstate how...
00:19:56
Speaker
How far from ideal the the feeling is around this team right now going into what should be a celebratory. Like, I don't think getting beat in the Club World Cup is the worst case scenario.
00:20:10
Speaker
I don't think going 0-3 in the Club World Cup is anything like the worst case scenario. the The worst case scenario is that you just go out there and you just get absolutely embarrassed every game. And I don't i don't think, I'm not going to say that's going to happen.
00:20:24
Speaker
but it definitely feels like it's on the, it's on the cards. Like it's yeah i think certainly one of the possibilities. Yeah, I was, we did our predictions last, last week and I was a lot more optimistic then than I am now.
00:20:38
Speaker
Oh God. i' say that much. And that was a week ago. So um I guess if you want to look, if you want to some reason for optimism, the Sounders have kind of,
00:20:52
Speaker
found a way to make mid-season tournaments work as sort of a point to turn things around like the weeks cup was kind of a the impetus for a turnaround last year having you know a little bit of time of away from the normal routine and a different kind of preparation and different opponents maybe is is good for them um maybe a little more freedom to experiment is good for them i don't know but uh i also think it's kind of grasping at straws to really consider that to be too much of a you know a bright side. So that's kind of where we're at, I guess.
00:21:24
Speaker
Yeah. I mean, i I would say that success for the Sounders at this, like if like the bear, like what they, like they, I would be satisfied if they're competitive in every game, if they go into every game feeling like they had a chance to pull out a result, I feel like that would pretty much quantify success at this point.
00:21:48
Speaker
Yeah. Yeah. And if they get it, i mean, getting a point would be great. Getting a win would be on you know, really quite amazing. And if they were to get out of the group, that would probably be the biggest, accomplish like in all seriousness, getting out of this group would be like the biggest accomplishment, the bigger accomplishment than winning CCL maybe, ah which seems silly, ah but yet also feels kind of legit.
00:22:17
Speaker
I more, more difficult. Definitely. um Yeah. Okay. Maybe more difficult. How much you care but I think if you're a team, good point. If you're, but if you're a team looking for positives, you know, I think it's pretty obviously something you would be able to hang your hat on.
00:22:33
Speaker
yeah. Cause it's just, if you can get out of, get out of this group, it's, you can't be a bad team. Right. Um, yeah. And I, and I don't think the Sounders are a bad team. I mean, at the end of the day, they are what they're in, uh,
00:22:49
Speaker
Sixth placed in the West right now. um Only. not four out a second, right? four Four points out of third. Yeah, four four points out of second. Yeah. um This is a team that I think is is clearly still capable of finishing in the top four in the West and as high as two.
00:23:08
Speaker
um i Because I think that they are still as kate they're so capable of playing as well as they played earlier in the season. And if you compare this to last season, I mean, it's come on. It's and day. mean, yeah way ahead of where they were at this.
00:23:18
Speaker
Yeah. Yeah, at this point last season, we were talking about who the next coach should be. you know i very um it is true yeah its It's a completely different situation. they've They've still set themselves up reasonably well for a second half run.
00:23:34
Speaker
But i'm i'm just I'm sick of talking about a second half run. yeah I'm sick of talking about, oh, this team always figures it out down the stretch. And they're always right there at the end.
00:23:46
Speaker
They shouldn't have needed it this year. Yeah, they shouldn't have. the The season started in February and it goes until December. and And you know what? The thing is that that two weeks ago, we weren't talking like this.
00:23:59
Speaker
it it felt and i And I don't want to overreact to a couple bad results, but... They they're the kind of bad results that make you rethink everything you thought. Yeah.
00:24:10
Speaker
yeah And, and the fact that they are like these injuries, this like we don't know when this team is going to be full strength. I don't know that we should expect. I don't know when this team is going to be full strength. I don't, I don't, I would think at some point you would, they will.
00:24:23
Speaker
You'd like to think, I mean, none of these, they don't, none of these guys are out forever, but yeah, they're not going to be back during the club world cup. Right. And also, you want to run after the global weapon. It's just like They they shouldn't be. We shouldn't be having this conversation.
00:24:41
Speaker
They should be. They should have another. They should at least have three more points right now than they do. And yeah at least at least. And the way that just they that Vancouver game, this is. Yeah, it was bad. it was very bad.
00:24:55
Speaker
It was bad. It was bad. It's like I said earlier, man, if it if it's a game that happens and is a total aberration, You just say ah weird shit happens in those leagues. Sometimes you can't be too freaked out about it.
00:25:07
Speaker
But it's it is two bad results in a row. But if you go back to the two games before that, they were games that they very barely squeaked out that you would expect them to be winning maybe a little more handily.
00:25:20
Speaker
Before that, it was a pretty disappointing draw in Portland. Before that, it was getting smoked by LAFC at home. i don't like The last time I felt really good about a performance from this team was Houston.
00:25:34
Speaker
And that was... And that was against a 10-man opponent. Yeah, a 10-man opponent. and that And then they beat St. Louis before that, which this looks like at the time. Honestly, I talked myself into thinking that beating St. Louis the way they did was a really good result. I mean, it was a good result.
00:25:51
Speaker
But yeah, I had talked myself into like, this is a team that hadn't given up at that point. They'd only given up ah eight goals or something like that. And the centers put four on them and it was like, oh hey.
00:26:03
Speaker
Yeah, that was a good defensive team. And then in the weeks, they just like St. Louis absolutely self-destructed after that, that loss. And so all of a sudden the Sounders win does not look nearly as ah satisfying, especially as you look at it in the bigger context of all these results recently. Right.
00:26:21
Speaker
But I think that the last one they had that without any caveats was really impressive was that three no against Nashville. And yeah, isn't that was a as's a good team.
00:26:33
Speaker
They they'd played well on the road. They'd they'd been good defensively and the Sounders just spanked them. um And that I mean, that was the last time, like, I think you can say that they're that they put in just like a great performance against a good team. And that's it's not a good feeling because I think after that St. Louis game, you know,
00:26:54
Speaker
After that Houston game, I thought, all right, this team is one of the best teams in the league. And it's it's really hard to feel that way now. It is. Well, um I don't want to talk about this anymore.
00:27:07
Speaker
Yeah, I think that's fair. So let's take a break. ah We'll come back and we're going to talk about the, we're going to do a power ranking of the five teams that we think are most likely to win the ah Club World Cup.
00:27:23
Speaker
Talk Club World Cup, basically, in the next segment. ah So stick around and we'll be right back.
00:27:32
Speaker
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Club World Cup Predictions and Analysis
00:30:17
Speaker
Welcome back to Nos Adietes. aists so we're just going to jump right into this. We're going go 5-4-3-2-1 on our power rankings because that's usually how we do it here.
00:30:29
Speaker
And we're going basically give the teams that we think are most likely to win, necessarily the best teams, but the teams who are most likely to win the Club World Cup, right? That's what we agreed.
00:30:40
Speaker
This is not a power ranking of quality as much as theres a power ranking of ah prediction, if you will. So, Aaron, I'll let you go ahead and start.
00:30:53
Speaker
ah Who do you got at number five? Number five, I have Real Madrid. um This is not the best Real Madrid team by any stretch, not the deepest Real Madrid team by any stretch, but it is Real Madrid in ah knockout competition.
00:31:06
Speaker
ah And they they are still Real Madrid. So I think they've got ah decent shot. I don't think it would shock anybody in the world. So I've got them at five.
00:31:17
Speaker
yeah all right well i i am i am i have real madrid a lot higher uh in my ranking which we can discuss later as we get to that but at my number five team is ah oh shoot where did i put it you've got yours you've got yours backwards I do. All right, there we go.
00:31:41
Speaker
My number five team is Flamengo. That is a Brazilian team. They are, I am really high on the Brazilian team's chances here. And I'll tell you.
00:31:53
Speaker
And so basically I, I, I put two Brazilian teams in my top five spoiler alert. And basically I ranked them in the order that I thought, which one was the better team, but Flamengo, I think this is that my thing with the South American teams. A,
00:32:09
Speaker
They're in mid season right now. I think that's potentially a pretty big bonus for them. These are, that they are not far into their season. They're not at the beginning of there. They are, this is like mid season for the, for them.
00:32:23
Speaker
I think also that they, I think the money for them is probably a pretty big deal. These are players who are paid well, but not necessarily. These are not guys getting tens of millions of dollars a year.
00:32:35
Speaker
And we don't know what they're we don't know what they're getting offered from their teams yet. ah That has not been made public in a lot of places. But my suspicion is that it's going to be worth their while.
00:32:46
Speaker
So, yeah, umm I'm betting heavy on basically... the South American or the, the specifically the Brazilian teams to do well in this tournament. I will also point out, this is, I'm actually kind of into this.
00:33:00
Speaker
Uh, not that we're people that talk about odds a lot here. We don't, we're not a betting show per se, but South America, you can bet on South America at plus nine, any South American team to win the tournament at plus 900.
00:33:15
Speaker
Uh, Europe, heavy, heavy favorites minus a thousand. So that would mean you'd have to bet, uh, a thousand dollars. So it's like may and one to 10 odds essentially is what you're, you're talking about there.
00:33:28
Speaker
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I think that taking the field of South America is a pretty good, uh, yeah. If I was, pretty good about if that was a thing that we, uh, condoned on the show, uh, what do you got? Who do you got at number five, Yeah.
00:33:44
Speaker
Four. What do you got at number four? I've got Inter Milan at number four. i don't, i you know, honestly, I don't feel super great about this pick the more time I've had to think about it, but I'm going to stick with it. um I think they're a great team.
00:33:56
Speaker
i think that the reason I don't have them higher is that I think they're a little more top heavy than the other European teams. You're going to notice a theme with my my picks, I would say. um So I think...
00:34:09
Speaker
that the teams that are going to have the best chance of doing really well in those competitions are teams that are very deep. And Inter Milan is obviously deeper than any of the South American teams, any of the MLS teams, any of the Asian or African teams, but compared to some of the European teams, they're they're not quite as deep.
00:34:28
Speaker
um But that top end is is really, really good. And, you know, I think... I don't think the European clubs are going to be taking this competition quite as seriously as any of the other confederations. But I do think for a team that just lost in the UEFA Champions League, maybe there's a little extra motivation. So, yeah, that's that's my number four.
00:34:48
Speaker
Yeah, I'm not going to. Well, I will say my concern with Inter Milan is mainly I guess they were like one of the oldest teams in all of Europe last year. That's a great point, man.
00:34:58
Speaker
So I don't know how... like I'm not as high on PSG in this tournament. I think neither one of us are... oh i don't think either one of us have them as our top team, even though they are, by any reasonable metric, the best team in the world right now.
00:35:14
Speaker
And mainly, I think it's it's mainly because this is so close. It was only two weeks ago that they played in the Champions League final. So Inter Milan, I think, was playing... Didn't get to just cruise in either. like they They actually had to...
00:35:28
Speaker
like No, I mean, Serie A came down to the last day. yeah so like i I just don't think... um like I'm skeptical Inter Milan's going to be... interested frankly uh but yeah it's fair enough it's fair enough uh my number four team again on the the same the same uh metric is palmeiras uh they are the other brazilian team right now in the they are they're really kind of a a more defensively stout team ah in they uh they give up less than a goal per game they don't they don't exactly light it up on offense but
00:36:08
Speaker
i yeah know this is a team that's going to be able to grind out a lot of results. And again, i just really like if I have to, like, I just really feel good about the, the way that especially the Brazilian teams are coming in now The Argentinian teams I'm not as high on in part because they are they are in a ah they're in their break between the two tournaments. They do a Klausur and Apertura set up there.
00:36:35
Speaker
And I guess they are, but I'm pretty sure they're between tournaments right now and they would be normally getting ready to start. they would be This is like their preseason, essentially. there Their normal preseason would be right around now, and they would be normally getting ready to start their season right around the time that this tournament ends. So I don't know. i Maybe I'm over-indexing on this stuff, but that's I got Palm Arish.
00:36:58
Speaker
That's my number four. ah For my number three, I've got PSG. um You touched on this a little bit, I think. ah For one, you're right that maybe there is less motivation for them than for any of the other European clubs. Although, you know, this would be technically a quadruple, I guess, for them.
00:37:16
Speaker
I mean, I think there's... um Yeah, and I i think there's... motive Like, I also think that they are a
00:37:24
Speaker
Their ownership, i if I understand the the politics of all of this, and correct me if I'm wrong, but my impression is their ownership has sort of been on like the FIFA side of the equation when it comes to sort of like all the you know like the Super League stuff. and the ah you know They just seem to be very much like buying. I could see them buying into this project, I guess is what I'm saying.
00:37:51
Speaker
Yeah, that's fair enough. um I think that they're definitely in the conversation as the best team in the world. And I think the consensus pick, you could probably make a case for other teams, but um you know I'm not super interested in doing that. But I do think that when you compare them to maybe some of the other teams that I have ranked a little higher, hu i don't think they have quite as much depth.
00:38:20
Speaker
um And I do think they're likely to be tired after this season. um But, you know, they they i'm I'm actually looking. I wanted to bear to validate what I said about this being a quadruple.
00:38:33
Speaker
um Technically, this would be a quintuple if they won this tournament. Oh, really? Because they won the Coupe de France. Coupe de Trophy des Champions, which is like the...
00:38:45
Speaker
the charity shield or whatever they've got. which is Okay. So that's like a preseason thing or something. Okay. Yeah. It's like the, the Coupe de France ah winner versus the league winner, which I mean, and nobody can really win a quintuple and have all of the competitions matter, but ah you know, it's, they're, they're, they're all trophies and they're all real competitions to varying degrees. yeah,
00:39:13
Speaker
um But this is we're definitely in the tory territory here where if PSG wins this tournament, I am not going to be the least bit surprised. ah Yeah, I would I would agree with you there. i So I don't have really a whole lot to add about PSG, except for I've enjoyed doing some or learning a little bit about PSG. And one of the things I learned ah this week is that PSG is.
Club World Cup Team Histories and Rivalries
00:39:40
Speaker
like the p Like, I've always wondered this. Like, why is PSG like the only big the only club in in Paris? It doesn't seem... Like, it seems like there should be more than... And it turns out there is another... relatively high level club in Paris FC.
00:39:54
Speaker
And, and so there's a funny story about Paris FC and, and Paris Saint Germain in that the club was originally called Paris Saint Germain. The city council of Paris told them, look, ah they they needed some money from the city council and the city council said, sure, we'll give you the money, but you got to change your name to Paris FC because we don't like the Saint Germain deal.
00:40:16
Speaker
And Paris Saint Germain said, nah, we're not going to do that. And, And so they so they basically like kind of brought like, I don't know. It's totally clear who broke off from who, but I guess Paris FC kept the League One status and they so essentially started from there. I guess they started from scratch kind of, but they they they they got the money and they They stayed in Ligue 1 and Paris Saint-Germain got lost their professional status, got sent to the lee the third tier.
00:40:52
Speaker
And then within two years, they were back up into Ligue 1. And then they basically stayed there and Paris FC dropped down and has only just this year gotten back into Ligue 1. And so now they will be both in Ligue 1, I believe, for the first time, maybe ever.
00:41:11
Speaker
which is kind of a ah cool little. Yeah. I think that's true. Yeah. Paris FC is a great, ah if you want to do a career mode and, and FC 25 or what have you, they're a great yeah team to pick to do that with.
00:41:26
Speaker
um But yeah, it is, it is an interesting story. um Paris FC is definitely the more likable of the two, I would say, but. Although they're, they're also like, they, I think they just got bought by the Red Bull organization, right?
00:41:42
Speaker
and They're owned by the partially owned. Yeah. Right. And Louis Vuitton and the Louis Vuitton family. Right. Which I guess I don't know. Which is funny because they they do historically like their fan base is a little more left lefty. I think historically.
00:41:58
Speaker
Oh, really? Interesting. Yeah. But anyway, yeah, it's it is a it is an interesting thing. I mean, it's it is kind of funny how like all throughout Europe.
00:42:10
Speaker
There are certainly like countries where the biggest club by far is in the big city, which is obviously the case with PSG. But like they're the only club. um or you know The biggest club is from a second or third tier city. It's it's an interesting right wrinkle. right But all that is to say is PSG is also your your third place team, correct?
00:42:34
Speaker
Yes, they are. that's Oh, yeah. I forgot to mention that's part of why I went on that that ah aside. But anyway, yeah so what do you got at number two?
00:42:47
Speaker
At number two, I have Bayern Munich. yeah I mean, Bayern Munich, they're Bayern Munich, right? like We're kind of yeah at the point where there's just really not a whole lot to say.
00:42:57
Speaker
um i mean, they're always one of the best teams in the world. um They have no competition in their domestic league. I mean, I guess last year they they didn't win the no title. Well, two years ago. The most recent season they dominated I guess, yeah.
00:43:18
Speaker
Correct, yeah. but But it was two years ago that didn't. I guess it is two years ago now, you're right. um Yeah. So, you know, there' they can be beaten occasionally, but they've won a ridiculous and number of titles. Yeah.
00:43:32
Speaker
You know, they have a lot of European titles, of course, or a lot of European hardware as well. um Deep, they've got the star power at the top. and They've got a lot of really good young players.
00:43:45
Speaker
They're, you know, they're an easy pick, I think, if you're if you're just looking to nail nail the winner. um And I've got them at number two. Yeah, I actually, I had them at number two as well.
00:43:58
Speaker
It just feels like a club that will... take it serious that has the talent. Uh, you know, it's funny. We didn't even really talk about the draws of any of these teams, but I don't really get the impression. Like none of these teams are, I don't think in particularly tough in groups like that, we would be some, that we would expect them to struggle to get out of their groups.
00:44:22
Speaker
don't think. Yeah. I mean, PSG is maybe the one that's like, has the toughest go. yeah I think, yeah, that's fair. I'm going to get out of their group. Um, I don't, yeah, I don't think they're going any trouble getting of the group.
00:44:36
Speaker
Yeah. ah So number one, who you got? it Number one. Number one. i hate to say it. My least favorite club in the world by pretty large margin, but it's Manchester city.
00:44:48
Speaker
um They could probably play their fourth have a pretty good shot at making a deep run in this competition. um Yeah, they, they're extremely deep.
00:45:01
Speaker
um Everywhere they've got exceptional high end talent. Pep Guardiola is incapable of not taking something seriously. This man got in a fight during the and MLS All-Star Game.
00:45:15
Speaker
um Sure did. So yeah, they're they're my pick. I hope that they don't win. i' am on record as not caring about this competition at all, but I hate them so much that I actively hoping they don't win.
00:45:29
Speaker
But, you know, I think that they they're the best bet. I wouldn't say I think Manchester City is going to win, but I think they are the most likely team to win. Yeah, i so i I did not have Man City in my top five, and I don't know that I can really justify that from a... I mean, I guess like because I went with the South American teams, but I went with Real Madrid, and part of why I went with Real Madrid has a lot less to do with the talent or the players or any of that stuff.
00:46:00
Speaker
It's just that this is a club that collects trophies like... they're going out of style. You know, this is a club that just wants to win everything and they want to be first and they want to, you know, they, they you know, they they, they just love winning. And I just think that if there's one club out there, that's going to treat this like a big deal and it has a combination of talent, it just feels like it's real Madrid to me. Like this is a team that,
00:46:31
Speaker
want mean it is a cool and i will say it's a cool trophy so that's that's something i don't know that the players themselves are that motivated by the the trophy itself by the way it's gonna be fascinating to see when whoever wins this thing gets to pick it up and do the trophy raise it's a beast and yeah and it has moving parts and there's some real potential for uh For comedy, I guess, is what I'm saying here.
00:47:03
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, I guess the the upside to city winning would be they could drop it on pep or something. That would be pretty good.
00:47:12
Speaker
Yeah, exactly. See?
00:47:16
Speaker
you found a... When God closes a door, et cetera, and so forth. Exactly. Exactly. Well, ah anything else about the Club World Cup? You know, we had it it's funny. We did a ah so ah ah Club World Cup preview with Chard and Charlie Boehm yesterday and give you a little peek behind the curtain.
00:47:35
Speaker
We did a whole like 45 minute segment at the start that get a that gave an overview of the tournament and talked about a lot of the issues going on. And it didn't record properly.
00:47:47
Speaker
And we had to bag it. And so it ended up being just as it ended up just being about the the ah the group that's being played in Seattle and the Sounders group.
00:47:58
Speaker
And I don't know how much how compelling that was. But you have any other. Club World Cup observations you want to make? Yeah, I mean, I would say that.
00:48:08
Speaker
Yeah. The interesting parts of the Club World Cup are not what PSG is doing. Like PSG Atletico has ah negative amount of interest for me. Yeah. um the The big games, right? Just do nothing for me.
00:48:26
Speaker
But games like River Plate versus Arawa Red Diamonds. I'm going to that game. Palmeiras versus. Yeah, I would. I would love to. I can't go just because of the timing of it, but I would. love That was like the game that I was actually kind of most excited about. that That'll be interesting.
00:48:40
Speaker
Palmeiras Al Ali should be interesting. Yeah. River Plate Monterey should be interesting. um The games against teams that do actually have pride to play for, you know, that that are going to be taking the competition a little more seriously.
00:48:54
Speaker
um those should be fun and and they're teams that aren't gonna ever play each other in the mile and in the wild like they're this is the only time these teams will ever play each other in a competition um and that is like the promise of a competition like this to me like that is the thing that makes it interesting and i think the fact that that is ah complete afterthought to fifa sort of underscores why i think they have blown this tournament so completely um why they just don't really understand their product and what they're trying to sell.
00:49:26
Speaker
They, yeah I would say that that's been kind of one of the the the thing that I think is going to be fascinating during this tournament is just to see how it, how it evolves and what we sort of end up walking away from, you know, what we, what we really get out of this tournament.
FIFA's Organizational Challenges with the Club World Cup
00:49:41
Speaker
Because it does seem like FIFA doesn't really like, I understand the sort of meta,
00:49:51
Speaker
calculation that they're making here, which is they're so like FIFA is this massive brand. They make a lot of money off the world cup, but that's really there.
00:50:03
Speaker
That's, that's how they make their money for the most part. Uh, you know, other than grift or whatever, but like in all seriousness, like they're, they're one big product is is the world cup and they don't really run important tournaments otherwise. like Almost all the important stuff happens at the federation level.
00:50:23
Speaker
ah And UEFA especially is is running a lot of these a lot of these big, valuable tournaments. And this is sort of FIFA's play to bring something important on the club side to their offering, to their you know what they do. and and And to the degree that you can buy into FIFA's mission, which is, you know, they distribute a lot of this money to the smaller countries in the world, you know, the smaller federated, like that does happen. They, they, you know, it's like, obviously the guys at the top are getting rich and whatever, but like, there's not, it's not like the most useless, you know, endeavor that they're going through.
00:51:07
Speaker
And, You know, so like you can see some value in it. But at the same time, i just think they went about this. they They approached this tournament all wrong. I just think that they blew the buildup.
00:51:19
Speaker
I think they spent way too much time. Like so much of the coverage of this tournament early on, like after from 23 to from 2023, when it was first really formally announced to really the start of 2025, almost all the coverage of but about this tournament was focused on two things. One was...
00:51:38
Speaker
They couldn't sell the broadcast rights. No one wanted to pay their asking price for the broadcast rights. They were way more focused on getting a set amount of money than they were finding the right partner. And then so that ends up putting them on DAZN, which no one in the United States really has heard of. so like It's going to be very strange.
00:52:00
Speaker
And then the other thing that what people were talking about was whether or not the European players were even going to play. Like they were the European players were talking about boycotting this thing for like two years. And that was almost all the coverage, all the earned media about this was almost exclusively what a – like it was falling on its face type coverage.
00:52:21
Speaker
And then once once it started getting into the news cycle of like, okay, this is actually happening – Almost all the coverage has been, at least you know locally, has been focused on poor ticket sales and the fight over the player bonuses.
00:52:35
Speaker
And like there's almost no hype, no earned media hype about this thing. And fans don't seem to be really buying into it. And I think one of the other miscalculations that FIFA made was they priced this like an elite sporting event.
00:52:49
Speaker
And it's not... like People don't know what this is. the i don't think... like I can't tell you how many people I've talked to They don't they simply don't even understand the concept of what this tournament is. It's you think it sells itself. It's the club World Cup. It's the same thing as the World Cup, but it's with clubs.
00:53:07
Speaker
OK, but is that is that a thing? And it's like it kind of was a thing. It was a thing before. But they had they had spent 25 years putting the brand of the Club World Cup in the – like tarnishing the brand itself.
00:53:20
Speaker
And I don't know that the average consumer is differentiating this between the International Champions Cup or whatever other friendly tournaments come rolling through. So it's just been fascinating to see FIFA just kind of fall on its face.
00:53:31
Speaker
ah during And and why like why would you think anything differently of it? like the The qualifying doesn't really make a whole lot of sense. um The last team to get in got in because ah of a co-owner like a weird co-ownership rule, right and they play in a league where the league owns every team.
00:53:51
Speaker
So that doesn't really make a whole lot of sense. that you like It's just... um You've got teams that have never won any notable trophy in Europe, um you know, playing in the competition. It's just it's very clear what they want it to be.
00:54:07
Speaker
But you have to actually get buy in from the kind like the teams competing in it. um And you have to get buy in from the fans and you can't just force it to happen, especially there's so much soccer happening all the time, all the damn time there is soccer, there are international tournaments.
00:54:24
Speaker
You know the World Cup's every four years. The Nations League is every two years. The Euros are every... It's just constant, constant, constant. um There's all sorts of club competitions happening. It's not just, you know, like, oh there's the the league and then there's the cup. And then there's, if you're good enough, you get into a European competition. There are three competitions happening in Europe.
00:54:44
Speaker
Like you can finish 12th or whatever in your league and get into your competition at this point. ah It's there's just so much of it. And there's only so much people can can care about. And i mean, i think you and i are above average level in terms of our interest in soccer. I think it's fair to say. And like and we like we they can't it's happening in our in our town and and they can't get us to buy into it.
00:55:12
Speaker
Yeah, um it's just it's ah it's a tough sell, I think. But I do think that it's worth watching some of the the less marquee matchups. I think those games could be really fun.
00:55:24
Speaker
Yeah, I will say one of the other things i found kind of funny researching this is So I don't know if you know this or not, but the reason Liverpool is not in the tournament, even though they would have been the top ranked team by the rankings that FIFA used, is because Chelsea and Man City got in.
00:55:45
Speaker
And so they they created these strange... Honestly, I don't... Kind of a strange rule where if there were two teams... Like you could only get... If you had two teams that qualified their way in through winning Champions League, you weren't eligible for an at-large spot, which, I don't know, it just feels like kind of a rule for the sake of a rule. I don't quite understand that. So Liverpool would have been in, but they didn't get in.
00:56:09
Speaker
And so Red Bull Salzburg gets their spot, essentially, in this tournament.
00:56:16
Speaker
It's like you go yeah talk about you go from like maybe the, I don't know, third or fourth most markable team in the world to like a team that almost like they Red Bull Salzburg has like effectively zero following in the United States.
00:56:32
Speaker
I don't think they, and and you go for, know, this is a team. And so like, that's just kind of a funny thing that they get burned by their own rule. And then like the thing with club Leon, the thing with club Leon and Pachuca where they club Leon wins the CONCACAF champions league in 2023.
00:56:51
Speaker
And then Club Pachuca wins in 2024. So they're both in. Everything seems to be going fine. They have the draw. They're both in the draw. And then after the draw, FIFA decides, actually, but what both those teams can't get in because they're owned by the same group.
00:57:08
Speaker
and And so there's no li there's no explanation at all, at all, as to why Club Leone, who qualified first, isn't in, but Pachuca is. And I guess the the reasoning essentially seems to be that, well, the owner of the group is called grouppa pachucas so bo ah presumably pachuca Group of Group of Pachuca chose Pachuca to be the representative.
00:57:33
Speaker
And then they come up with like this Koli cockamamie way to get ah club American LAFC to play a qualifier. ah Then the whole thing with inner Miami getting in with, by winning the supporter shield.
00:57:47
Speaker
ah It's just all very, it's just all very funny. Like there's just so many silly little things in here and it's like, and don't know. I, it's, I don't know that there is a way to market to this. Like, I think the way to mark to me, the way to have marketed this is to get it a on the biggest platform you could come up with, like whoever that if it meant taking half the money to get on to. I don't know who would be the ESPN would probably be the the no brainer, right? That's the no brainer one to because they have ABC and everyone else get on yeah ESPN, whatever it takes
00:58:22
Speaker
and then price the tickets super, super competitively, like almost get like um like as cheap or cheaper than MLS. That's the way you do this.
00:58:33
Speaker
and just And you do a proof of concept in year one. Yeah. No, I think that's a great idea. Because I think if this tournament is not such a clear and obvious cash grab, and you can have the stadiums full, and look, like...
00:58:49
Speaker
it's pretty clear that sporting merit is not the primary concern of this competition, which I think sucks, but whatever, that's the way it's going to be. So don't pick rules that make it so you can't have, like you said, Liverpool, one of the most marketable teams in the world, in the tournament, especially in the U S right. Like it's, it's, it's crazy. Like,
00:59:12
Speaker
It's just it seems like they made the worst possible decision about how to make this thing a success at every step of the way, every step of the way. and I, you know, i guess to a certain extent, they couldn't have predicted that the economy was going to be what it is and people would be cutting back on spending. But like they've known that for a little while. They've I feel like they've known that since before prices were were determined um and I don't know, man, it's a mess and and and they deserve it to be a mess.
00:59:42
Speaker
Like it's really hard for me to see this competition surviving in anything like this form past this competition past this year.
00:59:53
Speaker
I just, I yeah don't see how it happens. The other funny thing is, it's probably going to be like this huge security apparatus. Like, I don't know if funny is maybe the word, but there's probably gonna huge security apparatus around Lumen Field and be like a normal Sounders crowd.
01:00:07
Speaker
Yeah, there's going to be like there's going to be like strikers parked outside of there and like snipers on the roofs and it's like 10,000 people going to see, you know, Botafogo.
01:00:18
Speaker
Yeah.
01:00:21
Speaker
Whatever. There was a thing on King 5. It's like, it's going to be like six Seahawks games in the span of two weeks. And it's like, it's going to be like six rain games.
01:00:32
Speaker
Not to slag the rain or maybe six centers, but it's like, it's going to be like not noticeable on traffic. Right. Especially cause the games are happening. Like it is insane that I am worried about the morning commute to go to a sound. Oh yeah. But I am. you go Cause I like, you have to get to the stadium by like, you know, 10 o'clock to, you know, do like anything like a normal pregame.
01:00:56
Speaker
And yeah, it's, it's crazy, man. Whatever. Yeah. All right. Well, uh, that's probably, we did enough. We've done enough on this, Aaron. Yeah.
01:01:06
Speaker
So thank you. Uh, Thank you to our sponsors, Full Pool Wines and Hacks and Ferments. And of course, thank you to our subscribers for making this all worthwhile.
01:01:18
Speaker
ah I'll also give a special shout out to my sister, Marnie O'Shan, who is a realtor and is sponsoring our World Cup called Club World Cup coverage.
01:01:29
Speaker
So that's kind of a cool little thing. you need a house or whatever, you can call her up, email her. She'll help you out. She actually just a true story. is She just helped a friend of mine ah find a property in Olympia.
01:01:42
Speaker
So, you know, I can, I can vouch for her going to feed this. Yeah. Anyway. ah All right. Well, Aaron, it's been ah pleasure hanging out with you, but we should call it a night.
01:01:55
Speaker
Yeah. ah Thank you to everyone listening to No Sariotis. I'm Jeremiah Chan signing off for Aaron Campo and Lickett. This is No Sariotis and you'll never get alone.
01:02:33
Speaker
I expect the LAFC who is motivated ah to prove themselves at home, to prove to their fans that they' they're capable of winning in this league. And it's up to us to really ruin the party.
01:02:48
Speaker
i feel a lot better than