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Whitecaps showing no signs of slowing down
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The Seattle Sounders are moving up the Western Conference table and to help give us a better sense of how they stack up, we brought back Matt Doyle for another episode of “How the West will be won.” Matt continues to be very impressed by the play of the Vancouver Whitecaps and far less impressed by the play of the Portland Timbers as he and Jeremiah dig into the other Western Conference contenders.
You can read Matt Doyle every week at MLSsoccer.com, watch his tactical videos on Bluesky and subscribe his new “Tactics Free Zone” newsletter.
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Nos Audietis is the flagship podcast for Sounder at Heart, which became a reader-supported website on Aug. 21. You can support us by becoming a paid subscriber, learn more here. You can also watch many of their shows on YouTube.
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“Diversions” audio provided by Sounder at Heart subscriber Lars; find more of their music here.
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Transcript
Introduction of Will Bruin's new role
00:00:01
Speaker
Hi, I'm Will Bruin, and I was just recognized as a Seattle Sounders legend. Now I get to do voice reads for the Sounder at Heart podcast network. Here we go. Come on. Hey, O'Shaughnessy.
00:00:14
Speaker
Let's go. What save by Frye. The Seattle Sounders have done it. MLS Cup winning. Here comes Ruiz Dias through the middle to crowd it for Seattle.
00:00:29
Speaker
And now they truly can start the celebrations. It's the Sounders MLS Cup. Nico Lodero leaves absolutely no doubt. The Sounders rule the region.
00:00:43
Speaker
Seattle, Sounders, it's got built.
00:00:52
Speaker
This feels fucking awesome. This is a tiny dog. Nice work on your little yacht yat thing. And Portland can't say shit. know, what was the thought process in terms of who you decided to use and who you didn't?
00:01:06
Speaker
Ever since Southert Hart wrote a commentary that we didn't take over coming seriously. Go, not Seattle!
Sponsorship by Full Pull Wines
00:01:18
Speaker
This episode of Nos Arietes is sponsored by Full Pull Wines, a Seattle-based wine retailer and proud sponsor of Nos Arietes since 2011. Full Pull was founded in 2009, is based in Seattle, and is owned and operated by longtime Sounder supporters.
00:01:32
Speaker
They offer the best boutique wines of the world to members of their mailing list, with special focus on their home, Pacific Northwest.
MLS Western Conference Team Performances
00:01:43
Speaker
Welcome back to another episode of Nos Adientes. I am Jeremiah Oshan. Joining me once again, Matt Doyle. We're going to do another episode of How the West Will Be Won.
00:01:54
Speaker
Welcome back, Matt. It's been, don't know, think feel like it's been a little bit. Yeah, think it's been like three, four weeks. I consider that I do this instead of therapy. Like every every few weeks.
00:02:05
Speaker
a Some men will talk about the MLS Western Conference rather than go to Yeah. Yeah, that's that sounds about right. That sounds about right.
00:02:16
Speaker
Well, ah as as we normally do, we're just going to kind of go through ah hodgepodge of teams that I think are interesting in the Western Conference. We're not going to go through everyone, so I apologize if you're listening to this and you're a Real Salt Lake fan and we don't talk about you. I hate to break it to you, but you're not on our mind my mind right now.
Potential of Diego Luna in US National Team
00:02:35
Speaker
so Wait, I'm hijacking i'm hijacking it.
00:02:37
Speaker
So today in the editorial meeting, one of my colleagues said – I think Diego Luna is a nailed on starter for the S men's national team. okay. Yeah. And I like, I usually doze off.
00:02:50
Speaker
i usually doze off in meetings, but I like that one perked me right up. okay I didn't unmute. Like my, have a general policy of speaking as little as possible. Any meeting.
00:03:00
Speaker
um I was like, wow, wow. it made me start thinking. And like, I can't quite get there, but like, This dude, this dude, like he has made, he's, he's made the, he's like clearly one of the best attacking players in MLS. And he's clearly one of the best attacking players in the U S national team. Cool.
00:03:23
Speaker
Well, and okay. So now, now we're on this, let's, let's get into it. and This is sort of my point. Does it help or hurt his case that he's like the only interesting player at RSL right now?
00:03:34
Speaker
The Willie Agata disrespect. Come on. You know my brand.
Challenges of Real Salt Lake and Player Contributions
00:03:41
Speaker
i Look, i I think it kind of helps his case. i Like, I won't go, like, I think Xavier Gozov has been really, really interesting in three weeks since he started getting first his team playing time.
00:03:54
Speaker
I still like that deep central midfield pairing of Ineli and Ojeda as well. So I think there are more interesting guys there. The problem is the attack's just been a mess. right Diego Gonzalves has been kind of a disaster of a signing and center forward has been a disaster this year. and um Diego Luna has been forced to like keep it all together and just barely afloat.
00:04:20
Speaker
all by himself. And I think that is a certain type of competence and like emotional responsibility that you want to see from someone who might be wearing the number 10 at the World Cup. Like that's what we're talking about with this kid. So it's like,
00:04:37
Speaker
I think at this point it helps him, but I think longer term, the second half of the season for RSL and obviously for the national team, you want to see him being the staw the the straw that that stirs a a functional attacking drink and that is doing more than just keeping the team afloat, but actually elevating the other players.
US National Team Role Comparisons
00:04:59
Speaker
And I think, i mean, I guess in that sense, you know, one of the criticisms of the U.S. national team right now is that there's a lot of players who are biggish teams but don't have biggish roles.
00:05:10
Speaker
And yes ah I suppose he is is the opposite of that. He's a ah ah player who has a very big role, a very important role for a Not great team, but he he does put them on. He has to put them on his back. The goal he had this week was absolutely spectacular goal. And he seems to be conjuring stuff like that on a pretty regular basis. So.
00:05:32
Speaker
you know maybe I mean, it it is it does throw back to ah you know the U.S. national team of of a dozen years ago with Donovan and Dempsey. and ah g Landon Donovan is is, for my money, still the the greatest player in U.S. men's national team history. and he obviously spent 95% of his career in MLS um being in the role that we're talking about that Diego Luna has now in ah in a stronger version of the league.
00:05:59
Speaker
And as great as Clint Dempsey was in England, his best and most productive U.S. national team years came when he came back to MLS.
Vancouver Whitecaps' Unbeaten Streak
00:06:09
Speaker
I like to remind people of that all the time.
00:06:12
Speaker
Yeah. So it's, you know, there's parallels to be found and you don't even have to look very hard. um So I hijacked the show.
00:06:22
Speaker
I got us talking about Diego Luna, which you did not intend at all. It's a good bit. that's That's better. ah Well, and and so going on this thing where I don't quite know what the bit is this week, let the Whitecaps and LAFC had a ah really good game that I thought was fitting of teams who you expect to be contenders in the Western Conference yesterday.
00:06:47
Speaker
ah The Whitecaps are, of course, sort of the cream. and they They are just playing... wonderful soccer right now they haven't lost since march 11th no march 22nd march 22nd they have an 11 game unbeaten streak across all competitions and this is not a oh you got an open cup win over a lower division type of all competition streak this is going through like a meat grinder of concaf champions league can't champions cup sorry play so this is this is as impressive as a run as I remember really anyone being on, they've done it without any stars.
00:07:23
Speaker
real I mean, sorry, they have stars. They don't have big money stars the way that ah many of these other teams. But the question, so I'll start
Brian White's Goal-Scoring Form
00:07:32
Speaker
with this. I have... This is maybe getting to the premise of the show.
00:07:35
Speaker
ah This is the first of these questions. Is Brian White more likely to win a golden boot or is is fixture congestion going to finally start to get the better of the Whitecaps at some point and they will, I don't know, finish outside the top four? Which of those two things do you think are more likely?
00:07:51
Speaker
Brian White winning a Golden Booth is more likely because i ah you know if you look at his underlying numbers, yeah well, yeah I don't think he i would. I wouldn't pick him you know against the field. I don't even think I would pick him number one overall, but like his underlying numbers, even before Jesper Sorensen, were really, really good.
00:08:10
Speaker
And now they're excellent. um And the fixture congestion is winding down because they have ran that gauntlet. And as you said, they they haven't lost in almost two months. That loss came during the international break. They were without like their top eight players, including like Brian White. right Because he was that was Nations League and he was in that team. Their only other loss...
00:08:34
Speaker
all was in their first game of the season down in Saprissa, which they only lost on like a 96-minute header from Kendall Lawson. So they've played, I think it's 18 games or 19 games now across all competitions.
00:08:46
Speaker
Only two losses. 20 games across all competitions. Only two losses, and both of them have asterisks. So I think they're going to keep doing this, man. And they're going to get Ryan Gald back within the next if four weeks. Yeah.
00:08:59
Speaker
or so as the the as the schedule kind of smooths out for them. So i I think that um like I don't see a reason for them to take a step backwards.
00:09:12
Speaker
um And if it was going to happen for real, I think we would have seen it by now. I think last night was a really good chance, especially because Stem Berhalter was terrible. it was his first really bad game of the year, and they still found two goals, and they still had that comeback. New Brian White. um through Brian White.
00:09:30
Speaker
So it's like, i am I am fully on board. I am fully a believer in this project um and the process and the fact that they're able to take guys like Semper Halter and Jaden Nelson and, you Pedro Vita, who's a little further up the food chain, and turn them into elite or or near elite players in MLS.
00:09:52
Speaker
Like, it's awesome. It's exactly what I want to see from teams, ah from coaches being brave in this league.
Impact of Brian White's Statistics
00:09:58
Speaker
Yeah. A couple of stats i I want to share just because I did the research and i am amazed. I was sort of like shocked to see this.
00:10:05
Speaker
So Brian White has 13 goals across all competitions already this year. He's got eight in MLS, which does actually tie him for the golden boot lead. He's got five and come can have champions cup, which is another wild stat.
00:10:17
Speaker
Uh, so his career high is 18. He would, he's, you know, he's, he's bush pushing up against that before we're halfway through the season. ah But that's sort of underselling how good he's been since he got to Vancouver.
00:10:30
Speaker
He is, he has 38 goals in Let's see. What is it? He has... Yeah, he has 38 goals, which he's tied for the most non-penalty goals over the last three seasons of anyone in MLS.
00:10:44
Speaker
He's tied with the Christian Benteke, who... That's pretty good company. ah He's third, even if you don't count... ah Even if you count penalties, he's third in goals in MLS play. He is just a...
Minnesota United: Wins Versus Possession
00:10:56
Speaker
a grossly underrated striker at this point. I mean, he has been, he's been playing at a DP level, at least since he got to Vancouver. He's, he's not played as a DP. And i really do hope he gets a shot in the gold cup because he is, he he just does stuff that seems like it should translate to almost any competition.
00:11:19
Speaker
So the other argument then for the golden boot thing is he doesn't take penalties for this team. I think if it gets late in the season and he's in the golden boot race, I suspect that you know Ryan Gould will say, no, Brian, you you know we want a penalty.
00:11:36
Speaker
you You take it. Go for that 20th goal or whatever it is. Especially if they're running away with the supporter shield. which they currently are now. And and so it's not just, it's not just points per game. I was looking at ah the American soccer analysis database and sort of, you know, they have a ah stat um is a very granular, all in one stat called goals added. That doesn't just measure expected goals, but it it has, you know, final third entries and box entries and the value of the passes they make, but also the interceptions they have and the files they draw and the files, they everything down the list all goes into this one stat. And,
00:12:12
Speaker
By that number, um the Vancouver is the best team in their database going back to 2013. Yeah, I believe it. better than Better than 2014 Galaxy, better than 2019 LAFC, better than 2022 LAFC, or last year's Miami, which was an overperformance, obviously.
00:12:30
Speaker
um So they're like this all feels sustainable. And right now, as good as Andres Kuvas has been, um the MVP of it yeah is Brian White.
00:12:41
Speaker
Yeah. I mean, this is a team that's on pace to, to set the points record in MLS who, know I don't know how, you know, they may come off that pace, but they're doing it while playing this. Like I said, meat grinder of a non-league schedule as well. It's, it's just, and they're doing it from, you know, we out here in Seattle are quite aware that the travel, uh, the travel realities of being in the Pacific Northwest are different than playing in almost any other part of the country, especially once you tie in,
00:13:10
Speaker
ah international play and he is, and they are just passing this test with an unbelievable, uh, marks. It's, it's very impressive to see,
00:13:21
Speaker
um But ah yeah, ah I guess we can move on from the Whitecaps. We've drooled over them enough.
LAFC's Tactical Struggles and Key Players
00:13:27
Speaker
But LAFC was the the other team on that list. And i don't I don't know what my question is for them because I just don't – I don't think I know what they are. They are unbeaten in five, but they're – they only have two wins in those five.
00:13:40
Speaker
Before that, they were sort of struggling, which is frankly similar to what was going on with the Sounders. But unlike the Sounders, you can't look at these last five games and say, oh, well, they just started doing this better because they aren't necessarily – keeping the opponents from scoring.
00:13:54
Speaker
They aren't necessarily scoring a ton themselves. They have a plus one goal difference. The, the, you know, the underlying numbers say they're about what they say, where they say they are, which is like a, a top half, certainly top half of the Western conference, but not necessarily an elite team in the Western conference.
00:14:12
Speaker
I don I just don't know what to make of this team. What do you have any grand, proclamations about l LAFC, Matt? So the big question, right, the the because you're doing this bit where it's like, is A more likely or B more likely? And I think quite a part of it is is Is LAFC going to figure out how to use the ball so that they don't give a team like Vancouver a million final third entries, allow them to set the tempo and eventually come back?
00:14:45
Speaker
Or are they just, these you know, be more likely they're just going to double down, triple down, quadruple down on being a counterattacking team like they did in 2023, which got them far. It got them to MLS Cup.
00:15:00
Speaker
But we saw what happened to them in MLS Cup once they ran up against a team that was elite with the ball. um And that's been the whole question of the Steve Trandolo era. And I frankly think it's why um ownership is is probably not crying any tears that Trandolo is leaving um who despite all the success he's had.
00:15:22
Speaker
And I think that they are trying to be a team that is good with the ball. But I think that they don't trust...
00:15:34
Speaker
playmakers They don't trust guys who you have to carry a little bit defensively in that midfield. And so they're like, I i made the quip before the season, um you know, LAFC, you know, have finally fulfilled their vision of being a team that has zero creative passers in midfield. And now they're playing like a team with zero creative passers in midfield.
00:15:57
Speaker
And then you add on top of that, the downgrade they made in central defense from Jesus Murillo to the Eddie Segura-Marlin combination.
00:16:09
Speaker
And it's like, okay, they're they're you know a little less um incisive when they're on the ball and and trying to to task have possession. And they're a little more vulnerable right up the spine in central defense.
00:16:22
Speaker
And Denny Bawanga is slumping a little bit. And that's not a great combination. And oh, yeah, Hugo Lloris might be washed. like So they're they're vulnerable in ways that they weren't in 2023 because of the personnel choices that they've made, which have then um resonated in not a good way with the tactical battle that they have been fighting from day one of Tarandolo's arrival.
00:16:49
Speaker
Is it unfair to say that this is a team that even more so than previous iterations is going to go exactly as far as Denny Buonga can take them? It's looking that way, and ah it bums me out because I have such high hopes for Davian Martinez. I think if you put Davian Martinez in Columbus or or Vancouver even Seattle, we're talking about a $15 million dollars transfer out. I think he's that kind of guy, but um you know Steve Trundle does not get that out of...
00:17:23
Speaker
young attackers for the, for the most part. And maybe that's a little unfair because they did sell Mateus Bogus for, um, for $10 million dollars to, to Cruz Azul, but he was a different kind of player.
00:17:34
Speaker
You know, Bogus was more of a runner than a, than a passer and a dribbler. And, um, that's the kind of guy that sort of fits the the game model that, that we've seen LAFC embrace. So, so fully. Yeah.
00:17:49
Speaker
Well, i maybe the most impressive Western Conference result this week, I thought, was Minnesota United beating Inter-Miami
Critique of Minnesota United's Playing Style
00:17:59
Speaker
4-1. It's not so much that Inter-Miami is a jug ist a juggernaut. I think it's starting to look maybe like Maybe, maybe, maybe not, maybe not so great.
00:18:10
Speaker
But just i I really don't get I also don't quite get what Minnesota United yeah like. they They are putting up results, but there's a lot of reasons to be skeptical of this team. And and I guess the question.
00:18:23
Speaker
Well, here, here, here's the question. This is I did have a bit for this one. Would you rather have inter Miami's respect or thoroughly, thoroughly enjoy a 4-1 win? Yeah. I mean, i would i would much rather be Minnesota United ah you know having that 4-1 win after what happened this week.
00:18:44
Speaker
Did you get the – the bit is David Beckham but is very – be elegant. It was all up in Minnesota United's mentions because they were clowning on Inter-Miami and he did not appreciate that.
00:18:57
Speaker
Have some best respect. Have some respect and and be be elegant in victory. i So i i would rather have the 4-1 win. Yeah. um i I think that Minnesota United fans are right to celebrate madly after that one, and they have a nice little two-game winning streak.
00:19:19
Speaker
nothing that happens but Nothing that happened changed the way i feel about Minnesota United, which is that they will be – um able to to absolutely ruthlessly punish disorganized teams, and they have enough talent to do that to the tune of 55 or maybe even 60 points.
00:19:39
Speaker
But when it comes down to it in games that matter a lot, somebody who is good with the ball is going to run right through them, yeah what we saw which is what we saw the Galaxy do to them in in the playoffs last year.
00:19:53
Speaker
Well, and I did i did some digging on on Minnesota United because I was also trying to trying to prep for this show. And so FB ref has data on possession that goes all the way back to 2016. So we're talking about, you know, nine years, nine seasons worth of ah data.
00:20:12
Speaker
No one in their database has been below 41.7% for the season. Right now, Minnesota United is at, do you know this stat? Yeah. I think they're at about 36 or 37%, right? That is a very good guess. 36.7% right now. Uh, so you nailed it. I just want to like, you absolutely nailed that.
00:20:33
Speaker
So they are salt, almost 5% below the lowest, ah
00:20:40
Speaker
possession stat in all of, and this is, there's some bad teams. There's a lot of bad teams in this status set. Right. ah And that equates to about 65 fewer completed passes per game than anyone else in in, the, in the, in this data, but that's a, that's a lot of passes. That is a not insignificant, not an insignificant number of things. And the thing that's so interesting to me about the way they're doing this is that,
00:21:08
Speaker
Usually when you see this, it's because teams are playing very direct or they're they're sort of they're They're playing for – it's not about quantity. It's about quality of – now, they get a lot of – they take a lot of shots from inside the box, so I don't want to make it sound like this is all smoke and mirrors.
00:21:27
Speaker
But they don't pass the ball. they have like one of the lowest long passing – they don't pass long. They have almost no progressive passing. I guess they're kind of a pressing team. what what is Is there any reason to think what they're doing is sustainable? That's the question.
00:21:42
Speaker
Is there any reason believe? So I think their defense is so well organized and their two forwards are so good and they do have quality in attacking midfield in Ludd and Pereira.
00:21:56
Speaker
And then they have some really good wing backs as well now. Bongi and Gressel on one side and... um Mark Kanich, I think, is a good player, and Rosales on the other side. So like the talent is there, and they don't overcomplicate things as you're so adeptly kind of showing with all those numbers.
00:22:14
Speaker
And when you play that way, the floor is really high. We saw it for years in Nashville with Gary Smith. um I think you need more than that to win a trophy.
00:22:28
Speaker
i Yeah, I mean, we we we've talked a lot about how – oh, go ahead go ahead. No, it's not going to – I'm not going to say there's no chance that Minnesota United win something because you know crazy things can happen in in this sport of ours. But um I just – I would struggle to pick them.
Possession and Winning in MLS
00:22:52
Speaker
Yeah, i mean, we've talked a lot over the this time on the show about how possession and winning have sort of become decoupled in MLS. But they seem to be sort of taking this to a beyond logical degree. I mean, it's it's one thing to have – forty to average 44% and say, well, we don't need the ball that much. It's another thing to average 35% and say we don't need the ball that much because it's just – Well, mean the fundamental thing is that you're going – when you come up against – when you do that against a bad team, you you keep them in front of you and you create chances to to get out on the counter.
00:23:27
Speaker
And look, Miami are a good team. That's actually a bad team. right They're going to give you those chances on counter, long throw set pieces. And that is the plan for Minnesota United. When you do that against a good team, you're giving them chances to get into the box twice as often as you're going to get into the box.
00:23:46
Speaker
And you don't want to do that in games that actually matter. it's it's It's why Wilfred Nancey and Jesper Sorensen and Brian Schmetzer all bet on like, hey, let's have 55-60% possession.
00:24:01
Speaker
Let's have the ball because we can do stuff with that. And just the nature of how... um how Minnesota are playing. Like they're going to have to put out so many fires in the 18 every single game. And i just don't believe that is is going to get them to the mountaintop.
00:24:23
Speaker
Thank you for listening to the Sounder at Heart podcast network, which now includes No Sanietes, Lobbing Scorchers, and the Cooler Guild. We've been independent since August of 2023, but need your support to make sure it continues.
00:24:36
Speaker
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00:24:49
Speaker
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00:25:05
Speaker
To find out more, just visit center at heart.com and click the subscribe button in the top right corner. Thanks for listening.
00:25:16
Speaker
Well, you gave me an excuse to talk about the Sounders because you mentioned Brian Schmetter's name. i don't know if you did that on purpose, but now that's going to be, I've been looking for the opening. How do I, how do i angle this into some Sounders talk?
00:25:27
Speaker
They're coming off a three, one win over Houston. They're now unbeaten in five. But they're 4-0-1 in those five. They have scored 12 goals. They have they they suddenly look like the team that I think a lot of us thought this was going to look like.
00:25:41
Speaker
But they're doing it not necessarily in the way that they're doing it. Danny Masofsky is all of a sudden on a on know on an unbelievable heater. ah jordan morris while Jordan Morris is out. Jackson Reagan has been out the whole time.
00:25:53
Speaker
Obviously, Paul Areola has been out as well. What do you in from your, where you're sitting, what are the sounders doing well? And, and what do they have to like, is and is this sort of like a sustainable path for them?
00:26:07
Speaker
I, of course it's sustainable. It's the sounders, right? Like you guys make the the playoffs every single year, just about. And, um, ah like the numbers are good ah in terms of box score numbers and very good and getting better in terms of the advanced stuff.
00:26:24
Speaker
Mussovsky makes a huge difference in the way that Brian White does. It's a funny thing. i I remember, you know, seven, eight years ago when both these guys were, um, you know, just got just out of college.
00:26:36
Speaker
Um, I think it was 18. They were among the leading goal scorers per 90 in, um, in USL. And I remember, you know, watching some film with both of them and then looking at, you know, what advanced data we had at that point and being like, Oh, both these guys going to be good.
00:26:56
Speaker
Both because like box movement, if you find one touch finishes, um it you know, in youth, you know, you your youth leagues and then in college, and then you do it your first year as a pro in USL, it's probably go translate up.
00:27:12
Speaker
The same thing happened, you know, we were just talking about Minnesota. Same thing happened with Antonio Loche. Like he did it in college and then he goes on loan to San Antonio and USL and he scores like 20 goals.
00:27:24
Speaker
And then lo and behold, he does it in MLS as well. um So I think once... Seattle, once Schmetzer figured out that, Hey, we're better with a real nine and not a false nine. I think this stuff behind sort of clicks into place. And then it just ends up being like, okay can Kim Kihee still play?
00:27:42
Speaker
He can. Cool. We can, and we can survive ah an injury to Jackson Reagan. Like, Oh, Ryan Kent is really good. Okay, we can, you know, it's a shame about Paul Areola, but we're actually in a good spot here. And on top of that, Pedro De La Vega is healthy and he looks like a DP.
00:27:59
Speaker
um So it's like, yeah, I think there's a top three in the in the Western Conference with but Vancouver and Seattle and
Seattle Sounders' Unbeaten Run and Tactics
00:28:09
Speaker
LAFC. And I don't, you I named Seattle second there for a reason.
00:28:15
Speaker
Yeah, ah just to circle back, Danny Masofsky, Brian White drafted in the same year. You you maybe have already know that, but they were both in the 2018 draft. They were picked about 12 picks apart.
00:28:27
Speaker
No, 14 picks apart. So, yeah, they they have followed a similar. And like you said, they were both very good in USL. And ah they they kind of play similar styles.
00:28:38
Speaker
yeah b Brian White clearly doing it at ah you know a more sustained high level. But I've been very impressed with Danny Masofsky's off ball movement i he you know he's not i i keep saying this but it's not that he's on some unbelievable heater in terms of finishing it's just that he consistently puts himself in these really high xg positions so that even if he's not he's only converting half of his real chances he's still getting in putting it in the goal a lot because it's just a lot of a lot of chances that a lot of good chances that he's getting himself on
00:29:13
Speaker
The most valuable skill in soccer is finding one-touch finishes. um And if you could do it and in USL... you could probably do it in um MLS with the caveat being most of the guys who are good enough to do that at the MLS level, aren't also able to make the game themselves, right? They need to be in a, because if you can find one touch finishes and you have the ability to, um you know, create chances with a center back right on top of you or to drop into midfield and be a playmaker, you're not an MLS, right?
00:29:52
Speaker
you know you're You're in one of the big five leagues in Europe. So you you know you guys who who have the ability that White and Wysofsky have to find those one-touch finishes, um you put them in a functional attack, which the Sounders have, um and they're going to bring that skill set to bear. And I think that's what we've seen over the past month and a half.
00:30:14
Speaker
And before we move off the Sounders, what's you know you and I were talking a little on Blue Sky about Osaze de Rosario. And I have to admit, when we started the conversation, I was a little bit more of a let's not get too excited about this guy. And then I started digging a little bit more into the data around him. And I'm becoming convinced that he might be able to, maybe not, I don't know, I'm not necessarily going to sit here and say he's going to,
00:30:38
Speaker
be ah a superstar or anything, but I think there's reason to think that he can at least spell Danny Masovsky in limited minutes. And, you know, he, cause he does a lot of the same type of stuff, which is just putting himself in dangerous spots over and over again.
00:30:54
Speaker
I know but like he he had missed a kind of a tap in from what, like six yards his first. Yeah. And I yeah understand that yeah fans were were frustrated by that, but like, don't be frustrated by by that.
00:31:06
Speaker
Be excited by the fact that the kid in his first appearance in MLS, um, um happen like If he's going to be in those spots, he's a 12-goal scorer at least.
00:31:20
Speaker
um And if that's what we' were talking about with your your third string, number nine, then you're a really good position, um obviously for the short term, but also it speaks to the overall pipeline from the academy into Tacoma and then up to the first team.
00:31:37
Speaker
All right. Well, the, the next play next team I want to dig into is, is your favorite
Portland Timbers' Reliance on Weaker Opponents
00:31:42
Speaker
team. I think in all of MLS, uh, they are routinely, uh, overshooting what everyone else thinks. They you're constantly over, overvaluing them. I think the Portland Timbers, uh, who I let's ah all seriousness, uh,
00:32:00
Speaker
you You've been pretty down on them. I don't know that they're giving you any reason to change your opinion. ah But they are, you know, I just want to share a little bit of numbers around them. So they have played one third of their games against either Sporting Kansas City or the Galaxy. So they played four games already against Sporting Kansas City and the Galaxy.
00:32:19
Speaker
they have And then they have, ah they've only played four teams in the top seven. of the West or it's our top seven of either, either conference.
00:32:30
Speaker
Do you want to guess their record against those in those four games against teams in the top seven? i I'll say ah no wins, two losses, two draws. Very close. Zero, three and one.
00:32:43
Speaker
Yeah, they they have struggled against the best teams in the league so far. ah Is this a I don't know. Are are they is this a team that is more likely, you think, to finish in the top five of the West or in the below the top 20 in in supporter shield?
00:33:04
Speaker
I think they're more likely to finish top five in the West, but that's just because i don't think the West is very good. Okay. Fair. Yeah. be you know I'm really impressed with San Diego thus far.
00:33:18
Speaker
I could see them dropping out. um They're an expansion team. They'll probably hit a wall at some point, especially with those center backs. ah Minnesota, we already talked about the shortcomings I see in that team.
00:33:30
Speaker
LAFC, I expect them to keep rising, but... their flawed team in a way that they have a bit. So like, there is definitely a path for, for Portland yeah to know there yeah stay in the top five, ah even as they start playing real soccer teams.
00:33:47
Speaker
But Look at, you know, I have the standings open right now. Look at seven through 15 in the West. Yeah. Yeah. No, it's, it's, says there there's no quality in there.
00:34:00
Speaker
Yeah. So I think Portland is going to be a playoff team and maybe even one that has home field advantage in the, in the first round. Um, i need to like All the stuff I talked about, like being good on the ball and actually using the ball to make stuff happen, the first 10 minutes against Sporting KC, so big asterisk there, but the first 10 minutes against Sporting KC were really, really good.
00:34:28
Speaker
there was a lot to take from that. If you're a Portland fan up to and including obviously senti Moreno's bicycle, the next 80 minutes, they just put everyone behind the ball.
00:34:41
Speaker
Um, and we're like, and it just like kind of hold it on for dear life and saying like, maybe we can get another one on the break. And I, I, I think there's a ceiling um that, and especially because I don't think Portland's defensive personnel is as good as Minnesota's is.
00:34:59
Speaker
I do expect James Pentemis to regress, though he actually hasn't been in goal the past couple of weeks. And then the big thing is that Kevin Kelsey is like the opposite of what we were talking about with Mussovsky and White.
00:35:13
Speaker
And that he's a super toolsy player who can do all this. He has no idea where where goals come from. He'd like watch his off ball movement and the spots he chooses to to take up.
00:35:26
Speaker
And like, He has a thunderbolt of a left foot, so sometimes he'll fucking score anyway. But like that goes away. like Those chances that he's finished like pretty decently, like those do not theyre they're not repeatable over the course of a season. We saw it last year with Cincinnati. We'll see it this year with Portland.
00:35:48
Speaker
He has to figure out how to be a consistent threat to get those one-touch finishes. That has not happened yet. And, ahll you know, I'll point out he played against Tacoma Defiance in the Open Cup for the Timbers, and he was effectively invisible until he took the penalty. he you You know, he's converted the winning penalty. So, you know, all all credit to converting the winning penalty.
00:36:12
Speaker
But he really didn't do anything in the match until then. Like he was just sort of out there and he was yelling at teammates to get him the ball and doing all that kind of stuff. And this is, you know, he's, he's facing, Stu Hawkins and Kato Yamada, two 18 year olds who are, I think very promising 18 year olds, but they are 18 year olds.
00:36:33
Speaker
And he, he looked like he struggled, he struggled to get on the ball. Frankly. Uh, I am, I have not, you know, he, he, you can see that he's a very talented player. It doesn't, you know can just see the way he strikes the ball. It's, it's, it's like a five tool player right like yeah no he looks great everything that you would want it's just like get he's been green in the box yeah that's a deep cut for uh yeah really yeah no it's yeah excellent stuff and you might i'm probably out of a career comparable to ben grieve uh
00:37:07
Speaker
On that note, I guess we should, we should, i don't think we have anything else to say about the difference. Uh, so there's a kind of a hodgepodge of interesting teams that it gets pretty, gets pretty dicey. I guess San Diego is the next team that is going to be maybe relevant here.
San Diego's Expansion Team Success
00:37:24
Speaker
They are currently on a pace to to tie LAFC's expansion record, but they do seem to be losing a little bit of steam. ah and but But they've been really impressive on the road. They got another road win this week.
00:37:38
Speaker
They are what they were promised, which is a high possession team who plays an interesting brand of soccer. I don't know. In a lot of ways, I feel like it almost doesn't matter what they do from here on out because they've already sort of shown the basic proof of concept and that you know they can build on this. i don't I just don't know how much of a contender they really should, like how much of a contender we should consider them.
00:38:03
Speaker
ah I mean, they've played a pretty tough schedule thus far, right? Absolutely. They they you know got a draw against Columbus in a game that they were, frankly, I thought better. They beat LAFC. They beat the Sounders.
00:38:19
Speaker
um You know, getting road win at RSL, and St. Louis is obviously terrible right now, but like still, road wins are tough to come by. Four of their next five are at home. yeah they come out of that five game stretch with 12 more points and they're really starting to cook. And I'm, I'm a believer in Mikey Varis.
00:38:39
Speaker
I think he's already solved some problems. I think um this past weekend they were able to be patient and not give up big looks and, um when when the mistake came defensively, they were in good spots to um to take advantage of that. And then they still have that DP slot open.
00:38:58
Speaker
And that's the, you know, Chekhov's open DP slot. Like some later on in the story, that's goingnna that's going to factor into to how the thing ends. And I think that they do have ambition to go out and use that.
00:39:12
Speaker
And because things are going so well and, Because Chucky Lozano does so much of the marketing for them, they don't have to go oh and say, okay, it's on Kevin De Bruyne.
00:39:29
Speaker
We're taking a chance on a 34-year-old European that you might have heard of. um They could be a little more targeted and go out and get the 26-year-old who's tearing up the Eredivisie and who nobody's heard of, but might actually be a best 11 caliber player in MLS. And I think that matters. And I think that, um look, I want Kevin De Bruyne in this league and more like him.
00:39:55
Speaker
um But I think if I were you know CSO trying to build a sustainably winning team, I would look for the 26-year-old. And I think that the the excellent start to the season and the the good off-field stuff for San Diego means that they can go out and get that. But the ceiling ultimately, look, Patty McNair and and Chris McVay have been a pleasant surprise for me.
00:40:19
Speaker
They need to, I think, reinforce that spot as well if they're going to be a team that really threatens 65 points and yeah maybe some sort of trophy. Yeah, i mean but you know fifty s if they can get to 57 points, that's their current pace.
00:40:37
Speaker
It's really good. like that's like I've been very impressed. i was i was a doubter of San Diego. I think that they have at least shown that they are much closer to a competent team than a lot of the the teams in in MLS. I mean, not just not just competent, but like ah really good team.
00:40:55
Speaker
like Yeah, you know I think they built a really good foundation. and they're They're a lot of fun to watch. I think they play the game the right way. ah Mikey Varis has been brave about playing the young players. like They're going out and getting guys like Annie Saidi and Oscar Verhoeven, who didn't really have a place and in um Philadelphia and San Jose, respectively. They're immediately getting playing time.
00:41:18
Speaker
like this is This is what you want to see from a new team in MLS. like They're making the league better. They're not just here coasting. Yeah, so another team who is fun to watch. I don't i really don't know if they're good, but the Salonze Earthquakes are and all of a sudden just a joy to watch. They are leading the the West in in scoring.
00:41:41
Speaker
They're leading the West in XG as well. they They give up a ton of goals. but they But they're scoring like crazy. house this But I guess the question is, should we continue to expect Chicho Arango and Joseph Martinez to be golden boot contenders?
00:42:01
Speaker
like this seems That part seems a little unsustainable to me. So... I think Chicho will stay in the mix, but I think that we're we're actually an inflection point already with the pairing because since Joseph got hurt, they've moved from to a 3-4-2-1.
00:42:22
Speaker
to a three four to one right with With two sort of winger or half-space types playing underneath Chicho, who himself is really comfortable dropping in and becoming a playmaker. not just a number nine.
00:42:38
Speaker
um And that's allowed them to, I think, stretch that first line of defense. Yeah. ah sort of horizontally and make it a little more difficult to play through them right when it was joseph and chicho up top in a two you could play through them really easy and get into that midfield and pull them apart and that was causing a lot of the problems they had that has changed a little bit in the past few weeks and the other thing is like look if there's any buddhas out there um He's like, what, 23, 24 years old, and he's already on Last Chance Cafe, and he's running his socks off um on both sides of the ball.
00:43:18
Speaker
And that matters. You need a runner out there, especially if you have Chicho and you have you know ah Christian Espinosa and the other two attacking. like You're going to have enough playmaking.
00:43:31
Speaker
You need guys who are going to put pressure on the back line, and I think all like that that is what the difference is between San Jose over the last three games, which have two good wins and a a really good loss against the crew, in which San Jose played really well, um versus San Jose in the eight games leading up to that, where they it was chaos and they can outscore you, but they did not have any chance of shutting you down. So I think how Bruce Arena handles Joseph's return
00:44:04
Speaker
And whether he can get Joseph to buy into being a rotation guy not an easy ask for him. And there are tables full of of fried rice that that can speak on that.
00:44:15
Speaker
um Like that is that is the tipping point or that is the big question for the San Jose season. And on those types of questions, ah don't think anyone has consistently provided better answers over 30 years than Bruce has.
00:44:32
Speaker
Well, and and one of the other things he's known for is unearthing players that many of us had never heard of. And I got it as a San Jose State guy. the fact that someone named Bo LaRue, who attended, who was a local high school kid to as well, or a San Jose, he went to a school, high school in San Jose.
00:44:49
Speaker
And he is all of a sudden like emerging as like a legitimate midfield force for the San Jose earthquakes. I had never heard of this guy. And all of a sudden it seems like he's a real player.
00:45:00
Speaker
I have been doing this job um for 15 years and I can count on one hand the number of times there's been a player who's gotten week one minutes who I had never heard of before.
00:45:15
Speaker
And that happened... With Bo LaRue. like yeah He was not on my radar in any way. um And look, it it's a credit to Bruce. And now he's working in guys who he got from the draft, like Reed Roberts, I think is the the name of of one of the center backs. He's...
00:45:35
Speaker
he's he' I mean, he was a top five draft pick, to be fair. And so was Max Floriani, who went second overall in the draft. And he's started a bunch of these games. And look, we know what Bruce does with high draft picks in the past.
00:45:48
Speaker
Eddie Pope, Omar Gonzalez, and Henry Kessler. All of these guys have been national team players to one degree or another. And all of them were center backs taken in the top 10 by Bruce Arena. So it's like he's doing the stuff that has made him great. And oh, on top of that...
00:46:05
Speaker
Daniel is now probably the front runner for goalkeeper of the year. So there's, there's a lot of match winners out there and there's a lot of ah reason to believe in in these quakes. Yeah. ah It's, it's been very, I caught me by surprise for sure that, that most of
Austin FC's Struggles with Offensive Investment
00:46:20
Speaker
this is happening. So ah the last team who I wanted to to talk to you about, and then we can, we can get you out of here, Austin FC. And this is the, this is the, the, the angle I want to take on this This is a team who is currently averaging who they have eight goals in 12 games.
00:46:40
Speaker
They spent $30 million dollars on off offensive talent. The last two windows, basically, And they are currently on pace to miss to under to score fewer goals than they did last year. And they had the fewest goals in the Western Conference last year.
00:46:57
Speaker
They will need to average one point four goals per game over the final 22 games of the season in order to match last year's goal scoring total. what ah What is going on here? like I know we've talked about this a few times, but since we last talked, the wheels have really kind of come off. even like i know they they they won this week.
00:47:19
Speaker
Or did they win this week? No, they lost this week. They did not. yeah ah But this is a team that is not scoring, and they aren't really defending particularly well anymore either. Well, I don't think they have a ton of talent in that back line, so that was always going to happen to one degree or another.
00:47:37
Speaker
um Look, the scoring thing is just massive underperformance from primarily Brandon Vasquez and Merto Azuni, who they spent $25 million dollars on this past winter. And then on top of that...
00:47:52
Speaker
Osman Bukhari, who they spent, what, $7 million dollars on last summer? um He's only a part-time starter now. You know, he's entering the Mergoni zone in terms of ah effectiveness as ah is an Austin DP.
00:48:05
Speaker
and The plan was to play a ah front three with those guys. Izuni is not a winger in the way that it was clear on film from his time in Spain that he was not really a weak a winger. He's a second forward.
00:48:19
Speaker
Okay, can you put him and Vasquez together up top? Like, yeah, and it's been decently effective. Yeah. in terms of finding chances, but they're not working together. They have kind of like negative chemistry thus far. And part of that is, well, they're on their fourth different formation.
00:48:38
Speaker
And it's been 15 games, not even. It's been a dozen games. They're on their fourth different formation. And they're doing it playing for a coach whose track record with Dallas was not one of high-level attacking success.
00:48:50
Speaker
And, oh, yeah, they don't have a playmaker. Like, they went out and they they got – yeah After you know buying a winger who was not good in terms of chance creation last year, they went out they bought two center forwards, essentially, instead of going out and getting a number 10.
00:49:06
Speaker
So like none of the personnel fits together. None of it really fits the scheme. um And they have this glaring need in central midfield for the type of guy that the coach wouldn't want to play in the first place.
00:49:22
Speaker
So it's all disjointed and messy in the ways – and to be fair, this is like 10th percentile outcome, right? Like all of this could be happening and they could like they could have three more wins just based on yeah finishing off some counterattack en chances. So it's not destined to be the disaster that it's looked like the past five weeks – But it never made sense the way Rodell Burrell put this team together. And they're a brutal watch because of it.
00:49:53
Speaker
um And the fans are in media there are letting folks know about it. And and I don't blame them for voicing their frustration. Yeah. Yeah, Brandon Vasquez is the only player on the team with more than one goal in league play. He has all of three, ah which includes a penalty. So just two open play goals.
00:50:11
Speaker
ah it's been It's been brutal, often and especially offensively, just absolutely brutal. And like you said, it's not like they have, you know, they've been able to keep games low scoring, relatively speaking, but ah not necessarily through great defense. Just sort of like organizing numbers behind the ball. Yeah, right. Exactly. yeah Well, ah that's a good place to to probably call this.
LA Galaxy's Performance Issues and Excuses
00:50:34
Speaker
we We could go on and on and talk about the LA Galaxy and their amazing.
00:50:38
Speaker
ah there apparently Apparently, the MLS rules are are are dictate that MLS Cup winners have to be bad the next year, according to some pundits.
00:50:49
Speaker
How much joy are you taking out of this? i a s smileal in one or so ah wanted I mean, I don't think, okay, so I don't know. i couldn't be taking, they're not the, if it was the Timbers, I would be taking a lot more, but I'm enjoying this a lot. I mean, it's definitely fun to watch a team that comes in with as much Ubris deservedly like, like, Hey, we're the Sounders. We get it.
00:51:11
Speaker
Uh, We understand where this comes from. But man, the the weekly excuse making is what gives is what really gives me juice, because it's it's you know, and it's not. And I will say to Greg Vanny's point or to I think he has actually done an OK job handling himself and handling the questions. But it's sort of like the sort of the.
00:51:33
Speaker
the infrastructure around them that is every week coming up with a new, Oh, well see, yeah, this is kind of L MLS works. It just, it picks you up and it knocks you down. It's like, I, no one has done this.
00:51:44
Speaker
No, but no team has has fallen flat like this. And there's too much talent on this team to be as bad as they are. And there's, there's, there's a lot of conscientious choices that were made and that created this current situation. And it is, it is funny to watch. I will not.
00:52:02
Speaker
not so we got some ah rsl talking at the start we got some galaxy talk in at the end exactly it's it's his goal that's exactly that's another success another successful therapy session absolutely i'll send you the copay Yeah, yeah, please do. I think I have a Venmo ah QR code on your way out. that If you could just scan that. Perfect, I'll scan that, yeah.
00:52:23
Speaker
Yeah, all right. Well, ah Matt, thank you so much for doing this. ah This is How the West Will Be Won on Nostradietas, which is part of the Sounder Heart Podcast Network.
Matt Doyle on Modern Media Landscape
00:52:33
Speaker
Matt, where people can, of course, read you on MLS Soccer.
00:52:37
Speaker
They can also read read you on your sub stack. How is the sub stack going these days? I got to ask you. It's fun. It's just an outlet to sort of keep track of all this stuff because i you know this very well in this modern social media era.
00:52:52
Speaker
Oh, man. We're all kind of – we have a lot of different – don't want to call irons in the fire, but we have like a lot of outlets, right? So I'm using the Substack as a way to say, all right, if you're looking for – um where my work is, I'm going to give you this landing spot at least once a week.
00:53:11
Speaker
And hopefully, you know, I get motivation, I do more. But, ah you know, we'll see. Motivation can be hard to come by sometimes when it's as nice outside as it has been. Well, what share the, the, your, what's the, ah the name of the sub stack again?
00:53:27
Speaker
It's a tactics free zone. No, no, it's just tactics, free zone, uh, dot sub stack.com. Perfect. Awesome. Well, Matt, thank you again for doing this. I'm sure we'll catch up with you, uh, at some point, uh, in the next weeks or months, who knows, but I mean, when the Celtics eventually get eliminated, i'll I'll need some therapy. So I'll let you know.
00:53:49
Speaker
Perfect, perfect. All right. Well, thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time.
00:54:19
Speaker
I expect the LAFC who is motivated ah to prove themselves at home, to prove to their fans that they're they're capable of winning in this league. And it's up to us to really brew in the party.
00:54:32
Speaker
You guys like that? and a what Awkward joke, dad joke right there, huh?