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Houston Smothers Texas & Iowa St + Baylor Next on Deck
85 Plays1 year ago
Welcome to Episode 17 of the No Conference for Old Men Podcast.
The Cougars are now 23-3, 10-3 in the Big 12, & sitting alone atop the Big 12 conference standings after demolishing Texas & smothering Iowa St ball handlers. And Jamal Shead shined, showing the nation why he is the best PG in the country. We begin this episode with a summary of the Texas & ISU games, highlight the other Big 12 games each of us identified last week, then transition to previewing another set of BIG upcoming conference games this week vs both Baylor & Cincinnati, and wrap up with a new set of Big 12 games to watch out for.
- No Conference for Old Men is available for free via Spotify / Apple Podcast / SoundCloud & the GoCoogs.com website; we're also available via the Republic of Football Podcast feed from the folks at Dave Campbell's Texas Football as their only basketball-centric offering
- Intro / Exit music: Ground Zero provided by FreeBeats.io
- Please follow us on https://gocoogs.com/old-men/
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Transcript
Introduction to 17th Episode and Focus on Houston Cougars
00:00:09
Speaker
Welcome, folks, to the 17th episode of No Conference for Old Men, the podcast where three old guys are talking Houston Cougars basketball with a bit of Big 12 coverage added in as well, and proud members of the Goku's.com network, the undisputed number one Houston Cougars content provider.
Houston Cougars' Victory in Big 12
00:00:25
Speaker
In the midst of our most pivotal stretch of games for us this conference season, including the win at Cincy last week, our Houston Cougars are now in sole possession of first place in the Big 12 after turning up the D to smother both Texas and Iowa State at home Saturday and Monday. It was a total team effort, especially on defense, to win these critical back-to-back games.
00:00:46
Speaker
But let's be honest here. It was the Jamal Shed Show where he put the team on his back and wouldn't let us lose either game. And now we're atop the standings with but five more regular season games to go. But more big games ahead as we travel to Waco to play Baylor in our only meeting of the year with them and then since he comes to town for the return mirror game. So lots to talk about this week.
Episode Format and Game Previews
00:01:09
Speaker
And today, all three of us are back again with Tom Lidiak, former coach, Bill Walker, former player, and myself, Steve Chang, analytics guy for this episode. Same format, summarizing Houston's two wins this past week, then a quick update on the Big 12 games we each highlighted last week, then pivoted to a preview of the upcoming Baylor and Cincy games coming up, and finally round up some additional Big 12 games of interest.
00:01:33
Speaker
OK, guys, let's do this. A pounding of Texas at home in what was probably the first or second most anticipated game of the season, along with the finale versus KU. In recapping the Cougars second win over Texas, Tom, why don't you kick us off with your coach's thoughts on our 82-61 stomping of Texas that left us with a satisfying sweep of the Longhorns in our only season overlapping with them in the Big 12.
In-depth Analysis of Houston vs. Texas Game
00:02:00
Speaker
Guys, it was just a thorough whippin' total domination. 22-20, I think the score was at one point. And then I think we scored like seven in a row. We went up 29-20. And then from there, there was no doubt. After watching the Iowa State game, it's amazing the difference between the toughness of the two teams. Iowa State and Texas, when we were playing Texas,
00:02:27
Speaker
I never got the feeling that they were going to make a comeback because basically you're trading baskets back and forth. And we had no problem getting good shots, unlike the Iowa State game. So from a coach's aspect, definitely the tougher team won. And like I said earlier, it was just a thorough butt kicking. Crowd was great. They were there early. Crowd was amped, loud, electric.
00:02:55
Speaker
It was great. Made some Texas fans leave it half time. They never came back. That's always good to see. Yep, a couple of guys. One guy with the whole first half was just shaking his head, you know. And yeah, he didn't come back to the second half.
Player Perspectives and Defensive Efforts
00:03:12
Speaker
So that's pretty much it in a nutshell for me. Awesome. How about you, Bill, from a player's perspective?
00:03:19
Speaker
Well, this game was a really well played game by U of H on both ends of the court. Steve, I'm going to disagree with you a little bit, not in terms of the Iowa State game, but in terms of this game, I'm not going to come out and say that shed put us on his back, although he was incredible. But, you know, oftentimes there are players who play really well and others who are at best okay, but
00:03:45
Speaker
Quite honestly, I think with the exception maybe of Don, I think the entire team showed up and really took it to UT. Offensively, Cryer had a really good game, 9 of 13 from the field, 6 of 9 from behind the arc and 26 points.
00:04:03
Speaker
shed and sharp. They weren't particularly hot at all from behind the arc, but both of them scored consecutively 16 and 15 points and both penetrated the lane. They shot well near the basket. Shed was great, no doubt about it, but I think the others were too. Shed pulled down 11 boards, six assists, six steals. I mean, that's
00:04:28
Speaker
showed why he's the best point guard in the country. Roberts was a force inside with nine and seven.
Houston's Strategic and Defensive Dominance
00:04:35
Speaker
Francis had seven and six. Walker played well and grabbed four boards in 12 minutes and Wilson certainly solidified his spot in the rotation with seven boards and strong D in only 16 minutes. U of H out rebounded UT 45-34 so that
00:04:53
Speaker
goes to the front court and shed with his rebounds and Wilson and others playing well. We stole the ball 13 times. We blocked seven shots. We forced 14 Texas turnovers. So this leads me into the absolute star of the game, which you alluded to earlier, Steve, the defense. The defense was just phenomenal.
00:05:17
Speaker
the steals, the blocks, the forced turnovers. We held a really good shooting team to 38%, 38.6% from the field. The guards had kind of a mediocre game. Ace Miss was really made to look pretty pedestrian. DeSue, who I've gone on and on about how much I like lately, you know, he led him with 16.
00:05:40
Speaker
It was a pretty quiet 16. Like you said, Tom, it was close in the first half. Then we went on the run late in the first half. And what we did exactly a 180 of was where they came out and took it to us in Austin in the second half. And
00:05:59
Speaker
had their great offensive performance and got it back to where went into overtime. We came out to start the second half and took it right to them and ended the game not too long after the second half started. That was pretty much it. The game was put away.
Advanced Statistics and Home Court Advantage
00:06:15
Speaker
The defense was incredible. And in fact, I've got two coworkers here in the office, Kevin McAlpin, who is a U of H season ticket holder and a podcast subscriber. And Danny Polito, who's at best a casual fan who can't stop talking about U of H and just how completely enamored they are with the D.
00:06:38
Speaker
It's amazing to see how great basketball and great efforts can affect people. Lastly, I picked U of H to win by double digits, but only picked us to win by 14, not 21.
00:06:51
Speaker
which was the final margin. And even though I've talked about this before, I underestimated the absolute best home court advantage in college basketball. I'm glad I was there to see us play UT at home and get him at home for likely the last time in my life.
Review of Houston's Win Over Iowa State
00:07:07
Speaker
Hey, you know who the best defensive player for Texas was, don't you? Rodney Terry. He was in a stance more than his players were.
00:07:20
Speaker
Well, I'll tell you this, one thing I forgot to mention, had they not had one of their starters in the game until the final buzzer, I mean, Weaver scored a couple of baskets down the stretch when, you know, he clearly had mismatches. They would not have gotten to 60 points had Weaver not been on the court.
00:07:38
Speaker
And I don't have a problem with him playing, but if it's entirely bench, we probably hold them under 60. That's okay. I mean, we beat him by over 20. That's what I really wanted. If we could just kill them in this last game by over 20, 21 point win. Beautiful.
00:07:56
Speaker
Starters remain the same shed crier sharp Roberts and Francis if you break this game into quartiles like Ken Palm does This was a game for one quartile the initial quartile of the game where our Cougars led 1917 at the 10-minute mark but boy we turned up the D as you guys had both mentioned and Completely controlled the game in the second quartile of the game 21 to 10 to end the first half with a 13-point lead
00:08:21
Speaker
And as you'd mentioned, we then started fast in the second half extending the lead in the third quartile, 22 to 14, and then coasted to the 21 point victory as fans were left both satisfied and elated with a season sweep and really how we beat down the soft Longhorns at home. As stated earlier, Shed was the star of the game for UH, 16 points, 11 rebounds, six assists, six steals, two blocks.
00:08:46
Speaker
and a player box score plus minus of plus 24.7 for the game, according to Bart Torbic, while also actually shutting down a Smith. He wasn't only pedestrian, he was a player box score plus minus minus 9.7 for the game.
00:09:04
Speaker
But two others also came up big, as you guys had highlighted as well. Our guards were just phenomenal. Cryer had a highly efficient 26 points, nine of 13 from the field, six of nine from three point range and a player box score plus minus of 21.3 and a manual sharp with 15 points, three rebounds for assists and a player box score plus minus plus 14.2. So, you know, guys, this is really the first game I can remember during confidence play
00:09:30
Speaker
where all three of our three-headed monster guards had a great game. Then you marry that up with, as you guys had also both mentioned, positive bench contributions from both Walker and Wilson. And boy, this was, I think it's the best we've played offensively and it resulted in the 21-point win.
00:09:49
Speaker
And you're right, it could have been much worse, honestly. Now, from an advanced analytics perspective, it's what we expected. On offense, we played possibly, again, our most effective game of the conference slate. Our effective field goal percentage was above standard at 53.2%. That was a little bit above our standard of roughly 50%.
00:10:11
Speaker
But we protect the ball extremely well, again, with turnover margin at 12.2%, which is also better than our number five standard for the year. And we also have offensive rebounded to standard at 37.8%. On DOE, we clearly were in sync. And this is just great heading into March. Texas was limited to 44% effective field goal percentage.
00:10:35
Speaker
We blocked 18% of their two point shots, limited their three point shooting to 33% from the field and forced turnovers on 21% of their positions.
Upcoming Matches: Baylor and Cincinnati Previews
00:10:46
Speaker
It was interesting, both Terry and in a Smith admitted during the post game press conference that they were out physical and would need to construct their team differently if they were staying in the big 12 to compete with us. Just a super satisfying indoor series with Texas. But as we highlighted last week, a super quick turnaround for what could arguably be our biggest game of the season versus Iowa state at home for the big Monday showdown. And our cougars were zeroed in and focused on D
00:11:15
Speaker
and ball security and continued in a physical but high quality 73-65 win over Iowa State at home that even our series with them this season and earned a sole possession first place in the conference standings. Bill, why don't you go first on this one? What were your thoughts from a player's view? Okay, first and foremost, another absolutely extraordinary crowd.
00:11:37
Speaker
The crowd may have even been louder than it was during the UT game, although it was pretty similar, which is to say that it was just absolutely outstanding. In fact, and I'll bring up a person one more time because I really had the extreme pleasure of sitting next to and chatting with the UH Senior Vice President for Academic Affairs and Provost, Diane Chase. And I truly enjoyed the dialogue that we had.
00:12:05
Speaker
And if I could pat myself in the back for a second, I think I did a tremendous job of steering the conversation away from my academic record and so happy about that. Whoo. In terms of the game.
00:12:19
Speaker
I thought we'd win this game by 11, and I really thought that that was actually a conservative pick. I think at ISU, a typically average at best three-point shooting team not done a pretty strong imitation of Kansas during our game. I think we easily win that game by 15 or more. You know, State's a very good team. They outremounted us by nine. They outshot us.
00:12:47
Speaker
beyond the arc by a ton. They're over 50% for the game, almost 70% in the second half. They had five more assists. But here's the thing. At no point during the game did they ever have the lead. Never.
00:13:04
Speaker
And why you might ask, well, how about 13 steals for us to their five? We only committed nine turnovers to their 16. We hit 24 free throws as opposed to their 10, which is atypical. But, uh, even with their proficiency from beyond the arc, we typically had the answer.
00:13:27
Speaker
Oftentimes shed and yes, we had at the entire second half led by shed with 26 points 6 of 10 from the field 2 of 3 from behind the arc 12 of 13 From the line 6 points 4 boards 3 steals and 2 turnovers But those 2 turnovers came in 38 minutes He played practically the entire game and he was just absolutely unreal, you know on a night where crier did not shoot very well and
00:13:57
Speaker
Emmanuel Sharp was extremely aggressive on both ends of the court, scored 20 points, had four steals. I mean, he really played well at both ends. Again, Wilson had another strong game, 7.6 boards, including a huge late three, which you don't see at all from him.
00:14:18
Speaker
But when we needed it from him, he hit the shot. Like I said, it was an awesome atmosphere. And it's why I firmly believe we'll handle Cincinnati and Kansas, our last two home games, easily by double digits when we're playing in the Fertitta Center.
Teamwork, Strategy, and Player Insights
00:14:36
Speaker
Kind of jokingly, one piece of advice for the team, if I might, and that's to leave the threes to shed cry or sharp, even Wilson, Dunn and Walker,
00:14:47
Speaker
rather than kicking the ball out to JoJo for three. Just a suggestion. Anyway, great win by the number one team now in the Big 12. And based on UConn's loss to Creighton last night, and depending on what takes place, which we'll be previewing on Saturday, likely the number one team in the country. We'll see. Fingers crossed. How about you, Tom? What was your perspective from the coach's view?
00:15:17
Speaker
Well, not a whole lot to add from what Bill said, but Jamal shed, I think Bill and I and you, we were texting back and forth kind of early in the season. And we said, there's not a point guard in the country. Oh, we go to trade for Jamal shed. And it's obvious now best point guard in the land. And that's the benefit of playing under Kelvin Sampson for, for four years, you know, the developmental program and instead of building your roster through
00:15:45
Speaker
the portal and yes, you know, we do add a few portal players, but you know, that's not the core of our program. The core of our program are the guys, you know, they're gonna hang around for three or four years. Juwan like shed, like Javier, Javier. I still can't pronounce his name. Anyway, Francis. Okay. But yeah, just, uh,
00:16:09
Speaker
Hats off to Iowa State. Tough team. I mentioned earlier in the podcast the striking contrast between how tough Iowa State is and the difference with them in Texas. Iowa State's a lot like us. Bill alluded to they out rebounded us and that's not by accident. They're just a tough team. They contest every pass. You know, they contest every shot. They battle for every rebound.
00:16:37
Speaker
very, very good team. But having said that, Bill, you mentioned this is that we should probably should have won by more because of some of the shots that I was stayed hit trade King. He's a 28% career three point shooter. You guys remember the first Iowa State game late in the game, he hit a huge three. I think that was only a second first or second he made all year.
00:17:00
Speaker
Well, against us in the second half, I think he was three for three on threes. Yeah, it was unreal. Another key point came in Lipsie, who's an Ames kid.
00:17:11
Speaker
Very good player. He struggled against our defense. Yeah, he is totally, like you said, against Asmos played pedestrian. He was very pedestrian against us. I kind of look at Lipsie as a kind of a Jamal shed type player. We'll see if he's like next year, if he stays around his senior year at Iowa State.
00:17:35
Speaker
Another point there is we had. I think he's only a sophomore. Yeah, I agree. I think he's only a sophomore.
00:17:42
Speaker
Yeah, he's a sophomore. Like I said, he's an Ames kid from Ames High and that was his dream to play for Iowa State. But there were a couple of instances in the second half where we had 11-point lead and we had some open threes. I think Cryer had one. I can't remember who else had one, but we had a chance to blow it open to a 14-point lead. And then they came down and hit two threes and all of a sudden it's a five-point lead. I think it was 46-41. Kelvin comes running on the court for a timeout.
00:18:11
Speaker
that we get from that bay. A couple of people are talking about JoJo's three. I went back. If you look at Goku's, I actually put a clip on there. That was actually designed. Yeah, absolutely. JoJo was wide open, admittedly.
00:18:25
Speaker
Yeah, Jojo purposely went to three point line. I think it was a manual came off a screen and a manual knew that Jojo was there kind of through a no look pass. My guess is that shot goes in. We probably see a few more Jojo attempts the rest of the year, but it didn't go down. So it was early in the game. We can kind of test things out. You know, I think we were up like seven to two. Yeah, I have no issue with that. What's that?
00:18:54
Speaker
I have no issue with running that play. It's like no skills. Let's continue to develop our young players. And, you know, if he can become a stretch for at some point, let's do it. Right. Is athletic and aggressive as he is inside. I'd prefer to see him taking his shots inside. He can draw fouls. He could get up at
00:19:17
Speaker
the rim over the rim. Yeah, I'd prefer to see them inside.
Home Crowd Influence and National Recognition
00:19:22
Speaker
And with all the perimeter players that we have, I'd like to see our perimeter guys shooting the three. It's one shot in the game. You know, I'm going to go look it up.
00:19:34
Speaker
I swear the first game it was garbage time and I swear Jojo took a three. It was like, who was our first game? Louisiana Monroe? Yeah, because I had a WTF moment then. But if you look at the picture, I didn't know his game well enough back then.
00:19:52
Speaker
If you look at the picture on Goku's, it's a great picture of JoJo's form. You know, the form looks great and you can see Kelvin's reaction. He's just looking, you know, hands his arms across and then you got a picture of TJ looking to and put a little thought bubble on TJ. He's probably thinking this shot goes down. We're screwed because there's no way you're going to stop that. You know, JoJo is shooting threes. But anyway, great crowd. Like Bill, you said.
00:20:22
Speaker
I actually thought the Texas crowd was maybe a little bit louder, but who knows, you know, it was just another electric crowd. National TV. We're on the marquee game frame for Sheila on the call. I really like Fran, you know, some people, he drives him nuts, but, but not me, uh, uh, friends, a coach and he's always said positive things about the U of H program going back years ago.
00:20:50
Speaker
We're starting to get some decent pub. Last night, I was watching the BYU Baylor game and after the game, Scott van Pelt on ESPN was interviewing Shaka Smart. And he was talking to Smart, of course, about Tyler Kolek and what a great point guard he was. And Scott van Pelt was like, well, you know, how do you compare him
00:21:16
Speaker
to some of the other great point cards like Jamal Shedd. Shedd was the only one he brought up and I was like, wow, I stunned it. And anyone from ESPN is saying that. Did you hear Scott's interview with Kelvin after the game Monday night? He said, yeah, Jamal's his favorite player in the country. Yeah. Which is awesome. And he's earned it, right? Rightfully earned it. Yeah. Oh, absolutely.
Strategic Game Execution and Adaptability
00:21:40
Speaker
He's made his dues.
00:21:42
Speaker
I mean, starters remain the same. Things started very quickly for us in the first half with Sharp scoring the first five points of the game and our D really stifled ISU early on. This was really a complete reversal from the first game where ISU went on a 14-0 run to start the game versus us when we were in Ames. For us this time though, we took a 15-4 lead after the first quartile of the game, according to Ken Palm, but boy,
00:22:06
Speaker
Iowa State is so well coached and disciplined, they turn things around in the second quartile of the game to only be down five at the half, 28 to 25. Then it was a rock fight the rest of the second half with us making small runs, ISU responding accordingly, and it was just back and forth. And I'll tell you guys, I was on edge the entire game.
00:22:28
Speaker
But shed was the star man and I thought had the best game of his career given the opponent the stakes at hand for the lead in the conference and with Roberts and choir in foul trouble early in the second half as you'd highlight it ended with 26 points 20 in the second half 12 of 13 from the free throw line six assists three steals and a player boss score plus minus of 22.6 for the game and guys, I mean that's a stat line
00:22:58
Speaker
basically two days after a big UT game. So you know the kids were exhausted during this game. You know, for Shed to deliver that line for us was just incredible. Officiating was inconsistent in the game and I think that really caused some of the foul trouble with Roberts in Cryer in the first half and early in the second.
00:23:21
Speaker
But three of our guards came through big time in this game. Sharp was the silent assassin, delivering 20 points, four steals, ensured we got off to a fast start and was a player box score plus minus plus 15.6 for the game. And our new bench star, as you guys had highlighted, Malik Wilson, again came through with
00:23:42
Speaker
seven points, six rebounds, two blocks, one steal in 19 critical minutes and was a player box score plus minus plus 19.5. And of course, everyone remembers he hit that perfectly timed three towards the end that basically broke ISU's back. As you dig into the advanced analytics from Ken Palm on offense, we played to standard against the toughest DNR schedule.
00:24:07
Speaker
And our effective field goal percentage was solid at 49%, which was just shy of our standard for the year. We protected the ball exceptionally well with turnovers at 13.6% against the number one steel defense in the country in ISU.
00:24:24
Speaker
We didn't offensive rebound well at 27%, but shed in sharp wildest victory on offense. On D, we smothered ISU. Though ISU shot exceptionally well at 50% effective field goal percentage, well above our number two ranked 43.5% standard for the year, we forced them to turnovers on 25% of their possessions, which we converted into 20 points.
00:24:51
Speaker
Anyways, just an incredible win for our Cougars against Iowa State. And we are now alone atop the leaderboard of the Big 12 Conference standings. Benefit of having a big Monday game is that the kids were able to rest and recover Tuesday. Now, of course, in the No Conference for Old Men Big 12, we have yet another set of grinding games this week with a trip to Waco to face Baylor before hosting
00:25:18
Speaker
I think it's Cincy, right?
Big 12 Standings and Key Game Analyses
00:25:20
Speaker
It is. I guess Iowa State lights Cincy at home. But I guess before we get to those games, let's each summarize the other Big 12 games we highlighted last week. Tom, you want to start off?
00:25:31
Speaker
Yeah, I took Kansas again. Kansas was on the road at OU. Going into the game, Kansas had a 1-5 conference road record, the only win coming against Woffle, Oklahoma State, even though they're playing a little bit better now. It was the same song, same verse, as far as when, okay, you're playing OU. OU hung with them for a while into the second half and then,
00:25:57
Speaker
OU started playing like OU and KU started playing like KU and then game was over. So KU got their second road win and you know, they were back to having healthy players. McCuller played again. I think the Juan Harris' ankle was fine. And you know, Dickinson was Dickinson got his points inside and yeah, good win for Kansas. Bad loss for OU because getting to the point now where
00:26:26
Speaker
They're going to have to crap or get off the pot because they're kind of inching towards the bubble. Yeah, I completely agree. How about you, Bill? What game were you zeroed in on? It was TCU Kansas State, TCU 175-72. There's not a whole lot to discuss here. I mentioned that TCU has a light schedule heading down the stretch and they're in the tournament while K-State has just a brutal
00:26:52
Speaker
schedule and short of winning the Big 12, they're probably out. And with that said, I did think State would win. I think I predicted them by four. They lost by three. The game was tied with 11 seconds left until Jamir Nelson Jr., who shot two for nine for the game, hit a three to account for the final margin of victory.
00:27:15
Speaker
Micah Peavey seems to be stepping up as TCU's top scorer, kind of their go-to guy. He had 26 in the game. And after the win, TCU moved to 18 and seven, seven and five in conference. In terms of the NCAs, they're good. K-State dropped to 15 and 10, five and seven in conference. Again, they've got brutal upcoming games and hopefully State might end up getting a home game in the NIT, but I kind of doubt it.
00:27:45
Speaker
I zeroed in on the Texas Tech Iowa State game, which preceded our game with Iowa State. It was really no contest, and the end score was not indicative of how much Iowa State was in control during their 82-74 win.
Baylor Game Strategies and Predictions
00:28:00
Speaker
Kishon Gilbert, similar to in our game, was key to the win for Iowa State with 24 points. It was four of seven from three-point range, eight rebounds, five assists, and a player box score.
00:28:12
Speaker
plus minus plus 20.4 for the game. I was finally in this game hoping tech would pull out the road win at Iowa State ahead of our game. But as we experienced ourselves, Iowa State is just an exceptional team. I'm really, really tremendous respect for their coach and their program built very much like ourselves and their focus on D and discipline play.
00:28:36
Speaker
They dominated all three of the initial quartiles of their game, according to Ken Palm, and just coasted in the fourth quartile where tech made the score respectable. 16 turnovers by tech ultimately dug a hole too deep to get out of in this game. So now let's get to the game preview for the upcoming Houston Baylor matchup. According to Ken Palm, this is our toughest remaining game, especially with it being in Waco. Bill, what do you think of our game coming up?
00:29:04
Speaker
Yeah, I was asked about U of H's schedule about two weeks ago. And I said, I just cannot see us losing a game the rest of the way. And that included Iowa State because I'm such a huge believer in U of H playing at home in the Fertitta Center. I just don't think we lose there.
00:29:24
Speaker
But this is the one game that I was worried about the entire time, and I still am. Baylor, right now, they're 19-7. They're tied for third in the Big 12. They're coming off, as I'd mentioned, seven-point loss last night at BYU. Go BYU. Yeah. Yeah, Baylor's also 13-1 at home. The one loss being the triple overtime.
00:29:50
Speaker
defeat to TCU. I mean, Baylor's fairly deep. They've got six players that score in double digits. They're, they're athletic. Scott and Scott Drew is a really good coach. They're led in scoring by their guards. The freshmen, Jacoby Walker, nice last name, 14, four. I mean, kind of a balanced team. Their leading score is only at 14 and a half points, four and a half rebounds. Ray J. Dennis, the point guard 13, one and six and a half assists.
00:30:19
Speaker
And then Jalen Bridges, the other so-called triplet, 11.5 boards.
00:30:26
Speaker
Their guards do the bulk of their scoring, and they've got a couple of three-point shooters as well. But they've also got some big guys that play decent minutes and are very athletic. They hit the boards. They can score. They score if alley oops. They can get the ball inside, put it in. And so this is going to be a really tough game. They generally play four guards and one big man.
00:30:55
Speaker
They shoot for the season. I mean, they are a really good offensive team. They shoot 50% from the field, 40% from three. Yeah, incredible. 15 assists a game, seven steals a game. So they create turnovers that they do turn the ball over 12 times. And there have been times when they've turned it over more than that. So they do get a little sloppy even with the foreguard offense. Their offense, like I said, it's pretty elite. They're not a great rebounding team.
00:31:25
Speaker
But again, they're very athletic and defensively they do create turnovers. We need to dominate the boards in this game. We need to score inside where we have the advantage. We need to do a good job of defending their guards. We need to really guard them on the perimeter. We need to protect the ball. If we do that, we win. And I hate to do it, but I just think that
00:31:52
Speaker
This is going to be our final regular season loss. I think I've got a feeling Baylor clips us by two, 66, 64. Okay. Hey, did you hear, you know, from a player's perspective that Langston love might be out?
00:32:09
Speaker
the game he was out for a while because ankle and they said last night knee knee now yeah and that he had to be helped off the court right against i didn't i didn't see it but that's what would i yeah is this against byu or was this uh last night last night yeah it was okay yeah yeah knee injury he's their best three-point shooter not that
00:32:33
Speaker
Walker and Bridges aren't solid three-point shooters if they get open shots, but Love was certainly, he's certainly their best perimeter shooter. That could change things. Yeah, so we'll see. I hadn't gotten any confirmation though of how serious the injury is. If he's out, I'll change my pick. We win 67-64. There you go. How about you, Tom, from a coach's perspective?
00:33:01
Speaker
If we win this game, it's going to definitely be a culture win going on the road against a really good offensive team in Baylor. When I look at Baylor, they have more offensive skill than say like an ISU. Not as tough though as an ISU team. Yeah, not even close, right? I think we're going to be able to run our offense and get some good shots. Just going to be able to knock them down. It'll be interesting to see how LJ shoots coming back to his old haunts.
00:33:29
Speaker
Missy, the big seven foot guy, seven foot freshman. Reminds me of a lot of who's that rocket player that used to, Clint Capella. That's who reminds me of just. Has a good comp. Credible spring. Runs like a gazelle. Doesn't shoot free throws very well. So if he ever gets underneath and he's got an easy shot, we're going to have to hack the crap out of him. Put him on the line. I can make his points from the free throw line.
00:33:56
Speaker
We mentioned Langston Love possibly not playing. It's going to be a rock fight, a street fight. As Kellen likes to say on Twitter, all road games are street fights. So I expect nothing different from our Cougs. They'll come out, we'll play hard. I think it's just a matter of hitting a few shots that we get. I think that's going to be the key of the game. And I'm like Bill, I think it's going to be a close game, but I think we're going to pull this one out.
00:34:23
Speaker
I mean, from an advanced analytics perspective, Houston, as everyone knows, we're number one in Ken Palm. Baylor is number 13. From an adjusted offensive efficiency perspective, we're currently 16th in the country. On the flip side, Baylor is 85th in adjusted defensive efficiency. If you look at on our defensive side, we're, again, number one, adjusted defensive efficiency in Baylor at number four in adjusted offensive efficiency.
00:34:52
Speaker
On offense Baylor is the best shooting team we will play this year. And they come in at number nine and effective field goal percentage and are good at 97 in the country.
00:35:04
Speaker
but they have been turning the ball over quite a bit and it continues to go down. They're at 160 in 10-bomb in turnover percentage. They're especially adept at shooting the three, as you had mentioned, ranking third in the country and scoring via free throws where they're 89th in the country in points from the free throw line. So our number 13th ranked 3.D will be put to the test again.
00:35:28
Speaker
Then you match that up with our number one effective field goal percentage D, that defensive or shot, first in block shots, second in steals. This will be a battle of strengths between us on defense and Baylor on offense. So something has to give. On the flip side, Baylor's D has been solid, but not great since Tang's departure to Kansas State, where they've just declined really to 85th now in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to Ken Palm.
Cincinnati Game Preview and Strategies
00:35:55
Speaker
Nothing you can classify is a strength on that side of the ball, but they're good at creating turnovers. But even there, they're only ranked 119th in turnover percentage D. They're terrible at effective field goal percentage D, ranking 220th in Kenpom, and terrible defending inside the three-point line, ranking 227th in defending the two-point shot. And blocking shots, they're no better, ranked 194 in Kenpom.
00:36:23
Speaker
Keys for us will be how much we can turn them over to manufacture points in transition, and then taking every other offensive possession deep into the clock to make them work on D. Based on the metrics, this is projected to be a three-point win by our Cougars, by Ken Palm.
00:36:40
Speaker
I'm kind of where you were originally at Bill. I actually, even with the Langston love potential injury and being out for the game, I think this will be our one remaining loss for the season. And I'm actually projecting a 69 67 loss in Waco. Now let's get to the Tuesday game preview for the subsequent Cincy rematch at home. Tom, what do you think from a coach's perspective?
00:37:08
Speaker
Hey, before we go on to Sensi, I forgot something about Bader. I think it's important.
00:37:13
Speaker
Sure, it was just a couple of games ago. I can't remember who they're playing. They're playing at home. Baylor has played a lot of zone last couple of games. I haven't seen him play zone all year last couple of years. Actually, they know the year they won the national championship. They went man to man, but Drew has gone back to that. It looks like a 131, but actually it's a 113. They just bring their wings up high and they get in the passing lane. Make it hard for the ball to go to the corner
00:37:42
Speaker
and then the wing player then comes down and plays the corner player. So it'll be interesting to see how much zone, if any zone, they play against us. And if they do play that 1-1-3 zone, Kelvin, really good at the Hall of Fame coach, will be prepared for it. It probably just comes down to where Emmanuel, Jamal, LJ are going to have to knock down some open shots. But going on to Cincinnati,
00:38:09
Speaker
Correct. Since that he's struggling. I was just sorry, Tom. I was just going to say, I don't think they played any zone last night against BYU. Now BYU is the zone killing team because they, Baylor did not play any zone last night. It was strictly man. Okay. I know what game it was. Uh, they broke out the zone against Iowa state when Baylor had him at home. I can't remember who won the game. I think Baylor ended up winning that one.
00:38:36
Speaker
that was the first time all year I'd seen them run that. They've been strictly a man-to-man team last couple of years. So we're moving on to Cincy, correct? Yep, Cincy. We got Cincy at home. They're struggling. Last couple of weeks. I think it's going to be a double digit win. You can't take anything for granted. I think we take care of them and it's going to be a
00:39:00
Speaker
double digit win for the Cougs. I did see the game after we played Cincinnati, the Giselle James kind of playing wild, a little out of control. I thought that heard him in the game a little bit. But on the other hand, nobody on Cincinnati was scoring any bucket. Yeah, they're playing tonight too, right? I think. So Bill, what did you think?
00:39:24
Speaker
Yeah, like you said, we played them just recently one by five there since he is going into, if it's tonight, there's 16 and nine, they're 10th in the big 12. They're currently out of the tournament.
00:39:40
Speaker
by everyone who's predicting. And they finished the season. If they pull an upset or two, they've still got a remote chance to get in. They've got home games. I mean, a perfect home schedule. Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and West Virginia. So they could very easily go three and oh, they should go three and oh at home. On the road, however, it's
00:40:04
Speaker
at us, at TCU, at Oklahoma. Likely 19 and 12 going into the Big 12 tournament and probably in need of three tournament wins, which is not likely. No real change with Cincinnati since the last time we played them. They're still a great rebounding team, both offensively and defensively. Solid defense. They're an okay shooting team from two, but
00:40:31
Speaker
Overall, a mediocre shooting team didn't happen versus us in game one, but they are an absolute turnover machine. If you watch the game that they played right after us at home against Iowa State, they had about 7,000 turnovers. And they're actually getting booed. Their own fans were booing them. Yeah, that's right. I mean, they just couldn't make a run, couldn't get anything going because they couldn't keep the ball.
00:41:00
Speaker
If we control dribble penetration, we move the ball, we rebound with them and we protect the ball.
00:41:09
Speaker
We win this game easily. Yeah. CJ Frederick, their shooter is back from his injury. I think he played about a minute or two against us and he's been playing a little more sense and he can hit threes, but you know, the, the key will be on the perimeter defense, skillings, Lakosius lock him. If he playing much, it's kind of been, he's not playing much now. Yeah. And Newman and.
00:41:35
Speaker
control the dribble penetration from Thomas and James. We're going to win this game. I have it 75 54. Okay. And by the way, they are playing tonight. They're actually tied with Oklahoma State 65 65 at home with 343 left in the game. So for what it's worth. Yeah, that's that's a tough one. States better. They just
00:42:01
Speaker
blew out much to my dismay. They, they blew out BYU at home and the game was never close. But nevertheless, they should not be winning it at Cincinnati with what Cincinnati's got on the line. Yeah, exactly right. I mean, from an advanced analytics perspective, you look at Ken Palm, again, we're number one since season number 37. We played him recently.
00:42:26
Speaker
I always refer to Cincy as kind of a UH light or a Iowa State light. And so the emphasis is all around defense and their shooting isn't that great. You look at the stats and again, we're 16th in adjusted offensive efficiency. They're 22nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. We're number one in adjusted defensive efficiency and Cincy is 74th in adjusted offensive efficiency.
00:42:54
Speaker
And just like two weeks ago, they're just like us. They don't shoot very well. They're great at offensive rebounding. The one big difference is they turn over the ball a ton. And actually, their stats on that side are getting worse and worse. So they've dropped to 1.84 in the country in turnover percentage. And so I'm expecting that to continue, especially on the road at the Fertitta Center.
00:43:21
Speaker
You match that up with our number two effective field goal percentage D, that defensive shot, number one in blocks, and number two in steals. Quite honestly, I think we shut them down badly.
Impact of Home Court and Big 12 Overview
00:43:32
Speaker
And on the flip side, Cincy is disciplined at challenging every shot.
00:43:37
Speaker
And they're especially good at defending the two where they're now ranked 40th in the country, but not great at forcing turnovers. Key for us is going to be our three point shooting and how much we can turn them over to manufacturer points in transition. Based on the metrics, it's projected to be a 13 point win by Ken Palm.
00:43:56
Speaker
I'm kind of on the fence because we've had such a stretch of really, really tough games. After coming back from Baylor, I absolutely expect us to win. I think it's going to be a 10 point win because it's just a lot to ask of our kids. Yeah. Don't underestimate for Tita. I'll say it over and over and over.
00:44:15
Speaker
And do not ask Kelvin if it's a trap game, if you heard his response the other day. I did. I don't think there are trap games in the Big 12, quite honestly. I think every game is just so tough, right? Did you guys hear Kelvin's response, though? Somebody asked him about a trap game. He was like, you idiot. Yeah, they probably wish they could find a hole and crawl into it. It was, yeah. Yeah. Hey, it looks like I'm at OSU's up four now at Cincy. Wow. Yeah.
00:44:46
Speaker
Okay, anyway, so what other big 12 games should fans pay attention to this week that are of interest? Bill, you want to go first? Sure. I have Texas at Tech. This is on Tuesday. This is coming off the weekend because there just weren't
00:44:59
Speaker
Any good games other than I think maybe nice to UT right now is 17 and nine, six and seven in conference. They're tied for eighth with OU. Tech is 19 and seven, eight and five, and they're tied for third with Kansas and Baylor. This game is probably a bit more important to UT. Yeah. Although tech tech's also playing for postseason seating as well as big 12 tournament seating.
00:45:29
Speaker
I've seen a lot of NCAA bracket predictions and I typically almost exclusively see tech as a five or six seed where UT is, I've seen them as high as an eight, as low as a 10. So that's about where they stand. Asmus and Hunter are a really outstanding matchup versus Pop Isaacs and
00:45:54
Speaker
Joe Toussaint, while Dylan DeSou and Warren Washington are an equally intriguing front court matchup. So I'd give a slight advantage to Tech's guards and a slight advantage to DeSou, although Washington may be a little stronger on the defensive end. This is the second time they've played Tech 1 at UT, 78-67, but it was on January 6th, early in the season.
00:46:22
Speaker
UT is just playing better on both ends. Tech snuck out. And this did not make me happy, Steve. I went over TC home last night where TC led the entire way. They did. It's nuts. And Tech will be at UCF prior to the UT game. They're at UCF this weekend. On the other hand, UT, who does need to win games to assure themselves of a spot in the field, although it sounds like they're in.
00:46:52
Speaker
They are playing back-to-back road games starting Saturday at Kansas and then on to Tech. I think this will be a good game, but Tech plays better D. They're at home. I have them winning 77-70.
00:47:09
Speaker
Okay. Cool. How about you, Tom? Which camera are you watching? And keep it with the theme of my Kansas love. I have the Saturday game, Texas at KU. Got a question for you. Is it possible both teams can lose? Has that ever happened?
00:47:26
Speaker
Anyway, the only thing I'll say about this game is this, and I'll leave it at this. Rodney Terry versus Bill Self at the fog. Nice. Should be fun. Hey, before I get to my game, I just noticed tonight, did you see Illinois lost to Penn State? Penn State. Big 10. Big 10, Bill. Big 10. Don't get me started on the big 10. Oh my gosh.
00:47:49
Speaker
There are no really good wins in the big 10 because every single team in that conference is overrated. Yeah. They're not getting as much respect this year though. Right. As in previous years, I would say the big 10 and Dayton is losing as well. Florida, Alabama are tied at this point and.
00:48:10
Speaker
Yeah, Oklahoma State is still ahead of Cincy with 49 seconds to go up three. Wow. Wow. Yeah. So for me, I'm picking the Baylor at TCU game. Again, two Texas schools in contention near the top of the standings. This is a rematch where, as we had highlighted, TCU won the first one in Waco in three overtimes, 105 to 102.
00:48:32
Speaker
So Baylor will be looking for revenge. Two great offenses that play in different ways pitted against each other. Tzu plays quick in transition for easy buckets off turnovers while Baylor likes to slow things down and work for open threes.
00:48:45
Speaker
Baylor has been efficient, really the most efficient offense in the Big 12 at number four in adjusted offensive efficiency. While TCU isn't far behind at number 25 in adjusted offensive efficiency, both are decent on D, but expect a fun offensive shootout again. Based on the metrics, it should be around a one point win for TCU at home. Based on match-ups and the fact that I respect but can't stand Baylor, I'm projecting a TCU win by eight.
Closing Remarks and Social Media Call to Action
00:49:14
Speaker
So that's it for this episode 17 of No Conference for Old Men podcast. Hope you all enjoyed it, and again, would really appreciate it if folks would follow, subscribe, or collect our podcast, depending on your podcast platform of choice. We're also available via the Republic of Football podcast feed from the folks at Dave Campbell's Texas Football as the only basketball-centric podcast, or at the gocoos.com website for those that prefer to digest the content that way.
00:49:41
Speaker
We appreciate the continued support. Also, please give us a follow on our Twitter account, no conference for old men. Thank you all again for listening in episode 18 should come out next Thursday. So please be on the lookout to download and listen as the episode drops. Take care, everyone.