Transcript
lpaltiguzman: This is the Energy Vista podcast. I'm your host, Leslie Palti Guzman. It's 3.02 PM in New York City. And today I'm welcoming Dr. Benjamin Schmidt to discuss Europe's energy security.
lpaltiguzman: And I'm very happy because he's one of the most educated guests I could think about, ah especially amid this very tumultuous geopolitical landscape that we're living in today.
lpaltiguzman: So welcome back, and Benjamin, to this Energy Vista podcast. You have been a prior guest. um And you're the 53rd guest, actually. But I have to mention that it has been more than two years and a half since my 52nd episode.
lpaltiguzman: So what happened during this time? i got busy with the company I co-founded back in 2018 with my husband, GasVista, which was a market intelligence company, data firm that gave birth to Leviathan, our maritime predictive ai platform.
lpaltiguzman: and that we sold Synmax. And after being acquired, worked for Synmax until this January. and So I'm in the process of reinventing myself.
lpaltiguzman: um And it's actually a natural evolution for founders post acquisition. And I'm very much looking forward to this time. And I feel very lucky, actually, and to be in this position.
lpaltiguzman: So that's a quick update for me. Now let's turn the spotlight to so you, Last time...
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: But wait a second, before you say that, I want to say the audience, everyone should give a big congratulations to Leslie and her whole team at CynMax and in their the the wonderful work they've done on open source intelligence monitoring for the LNG industry and shipping and things like this.
lpaltiguzman: yeah
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: It's been an absolutely tremendous run. I've been so excited to follow it and be in touch with you, Leslie, as you've gone about it. And congratulations on the acquisition, and and here's to what's next.
lpaltiguzman: Thank you so much. Thank you. So last time we we exchanged like on this podcast was 2020, so a while ago, and you were at Harvard at the time. Now you're at Penn University, and you're actually actually you know focusing, you have two hats, but that join ah but don each other. So you are um a senior fellow at the Department of Physics and Astronomy and the Kleyman Center for Energy energy Policy.
lpaltiguzman: So can you summarize a little bit quickly for our audience your role your rules and youre kind of two hats?
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: Sure, yeah um yeah. Last time we I was on this podcast, I was at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics working on a telescope project that was located or is located in Antarctica at the South Pole.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: um still Still affiliated with ah with Harvard and the Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, also the Harvard Ukrainian Research Institute. um But I have since moved to Penn for a joint academic appointment at the University of Pennsylvania in the department of physics and astronomy where i'm working on helping develop a a set of infrastructure and um and instrumentation uh for the simons observatory it's a new set of experimental cosmology telescopes looking at the cosmic microwave background uh at 5 190 meters in elevation
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: ah in ah the Atacama Desert of northern Chile. And so we're we're working on that down there. I'm also the project director of a ah ah subset of that project, which is to install for the first time a large-scale photovoltaic power plant to ensure the energy security of our extremely remote telescope infrastructure up on that mountain, on that that volcano, actually, in the Atacama Desert.
lpaltiguzman: Thank
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: So coming soon, and maybe we come back and talk about that when it's up and running, but three megawatt power plant up in the the Chilean Andes. it's It's going to be a very, I think, ah you know transformational project not only for us, but also ah for all sorts of areas of of giving an example for energy security and critical infrastructure protection. So coming soon.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: um At the Kleinman Center Energy Policy, I'm teaching in and doing research on European energy security, as always, on sanctions issues related to the Russian Federation and and technology export controls, ah open source intelligence methods, basically a lot of of open source commercial satellite data analysis and AIS analysis and all the sort of things that you developed with your company as well, Leslie, and then also working quite a bit on critical infrastructure protection, both in Northern Europe and in East Asia.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: And I think we'll get a little bit more into that today.
lpaltiguzman: Yes. So let's stop to right into today's topic. ah Europe's center energy security. We've been both you know analyzing and advising, ah writing about this for several, I mean, for me, almost two decades.
lpaltiguzman: ah But I must say that right now we're in the middle of a geopolitical upheaval. ah Europe is undergoing what I call a shock therapy.
lpaltiguzman: um that is administrated by Washington. And I feel that Paris, Berlin, Kiev, Oslo, Warsaw, London, you know do you name it, they are all in ebullition right now.
lpaltiguzman: Following the Munich kind security conference, they are scratching their heads, ah trying to find a budget for defense, thinking about the future of the transatlantic relationship.
lpaltiguzman: um Eastern Europe, I feel, is almost um you know on a war footing, thinking they could be invaded at any time. um So a lot of emotions um and ah you know it's a tough wake up call for Europe.
lpaltiguzman: um So initially we were planning to talk only about hybrid at warfare, but I think it's important um you know to take into consideration the context where we are in today, even if I want to cut through the noise with you and maybe not just focusing on the latest headlines.
lpaltiguzman: um But big picture, like is Europe up right now, Europe's energy security, is it in a better place, worse place, or kind of same place under the Trump administration?
lpaltiguzman: Or it's too early to say?
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: ah Look, there's it's really too early to say where Europe's energy security is in the Trump administration.
lpaltiguzman: ah
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: We're only, I guess, a month in as of ah yesterday or today when we're recording this. um I mean, look, ah we don't need to go through all the headlines. Zelensky is not a dictator.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: ah The Russian Federation dictator. ah unprovoked invaded Ukraine in 2014 and then it launched its full-scale invasion ah in February of 2022.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: There is no doubt about that. um The notion that we would have quote opportunities for um you know fantastic ah geopolitical or commercial cooperation with the Russian Federation is utterly false and frankly a dangerous notion that would ultimately undermine Europe's energy security in the future.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: and ah enable a return to business as usual, quote unquote, on energy with Putin's Kremlin, which we absolutely cannot go back to, you not only because of Russia's large scale invasion of Ukraine, of course, ah but the fact that it has reached a pinnacle or a peak of energy weaponization that has been continuously growing over the years.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: Let's be clear, ah the Russian Federation has targeted energy and critical infrastructure through kinetic military strikes across Ukraine to expand its humanitarian crisis and ah the misery of the the Ukrainian people as they heroically push back on Putin's Kremlin in its invasion.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: But at the same time, that has basically grown out of years of energy cuts of ah threatened or or overt ah natural gas cutoffs of European nations based specifically on geopolitical ah demands that the the the the Kremlin under Vladimir Putin has made against European nations um and certainly ah you know has evolved into all sorts of things from elite capture when former senior European officials have gone on to work for Russian state-owned energy enterprises in particular.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: I'm looking at you, former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, and you, ah former Austrian Foreign Minister Karen Kniesel, and I'm looking at you, ah former ah French Prime Minister Francois Fillon, who have all gone on to work for Russian state oil and gas firms, oil and gas trading firms, all of these sort of things.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: And we're now seeing, unfortunately, a pushback on all of the read the the sort of regulations that we've built up over the years to become more resilient to Russian hybrid threats from political influence and elite capture.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: um With the rollback of the Foreign Agents Registration Act in the United States, the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, We need to get our our house in order quickly and reverse these moves in the United States and help set a norms setting process so that Europe also can can push back on on Russians energy weaponization.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: So no, there cannot be a return to business as usual. No, there are not great opportunities for US firms to enhance Russia's energy ah production. That would be absolutely the wrong move.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: um and and And no, we can't overlook even you know Even with this horrific war going on in Ukraine, the fact that Russia has had a much broader energy weaponization playbook over the years that has weaponized energy across Europe and and around the world in a variety of ways.
lpaltiguzman: So ah Benjamin, I'm going to play the devil advocate, right, to have a kind of dialogue, because in Europe, um you know, we we we had started to hear some voices and they didn't wait for Washington, right? They didn't wait for the Trump administration, but there were already some European interest groups even some mainstream policymakers in Europe um that we're starting to consider consuming more again of Russian products. ah Part of that is because Europe is experiencing an industrial crisis, um completely loss of competitiveness.
lpaltiguzman: So it's mostly driven by economic interests. Part of it is because both France and Germany are going through a political crisis, very weak country i mean weak governments, um with some weak coalitions. Germany is about to get its elections um with some fringe of extreme right movements that have traditionally been closer to Russia.
lpaltiguzman: um So with this context, I don't think Europe, I agree, some bridges have been burned between Europe and Russia. and And at least on the gas side, i don't think Russian gas will ever come back to 40% of shares in the European gas market where it were before the invasion of Ukraine.
lpaltiguzman: that's That said, right now it's at about 17% of the whole European gas imports. Can it go a little bit higher? Will Europe accept that? Are we going to see a unity, you know, like um some kind of divisions and between the European governments on this topic or not?
lpaltiguzman: um Of course, we cannot discuss that until there is a resolution of the Ukraine-Russia war. But medium term, do you see um Russian products playing a bigger role?
lpaltiguzman: And by the way, just after the war started in 2002, I had written that Russian energy is down but not out. Because be beyond gas, we know that Russia has exported other products to Europe and keeps exporting. you know There is more attention on oil and gas, but this is not the only energy that Russia is exporting.
lpaltiguzman: um So with that in mind, um do you think that your that Russian shares of its energy in Europe can grow in the near future, medium term, longer term?
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: i think there's two questions there uh... you know can it and should it the answer is it should not return you know it should absolutely should dot there are clear national security considerations now at play again we're going to talk about the critical infrastructure protection side but that is absolutely part and parcel to this decision making process
lpaltiguzman: Right. Right.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: um But, you know look, you know, can it? Absolutely it can. and And that's what I've been saying since the start of of Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, that we need to be resistant to any political moves by parties, as you pointed out, the far-right AfD party in Germany, for example.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: who has called directly and in recent weeks for ah the resurrection of of Russia's Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines. um We have seen other fringe ah you know ah political parties and factions in Germany and elsewhere also call for this. And of course, we've overtly seen ah both ah the the current leadership in Slovakia and Hungary calling for not only you knowemp resumption of natural gas, whether it be through Ukraine or elsewhere, but also you know oil products and and making sure that they are pushing back on the the push to increase Russia energy sanctions.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: Well, first of all, as long as this hot war is going on in Ukraine, there absolutely can be zero ah sanctions relief.
lpaltiguzman: right
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: And even if it were to come to a ceasefire, there cannot be sanctions relief on the energy sector because it is not only related to this war, okay?
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: It is related to decades, multiple decades of energy weaponization. The fact that Europe was willing to get itself ah hooked on Russian energy products, not only gas, as you point out, but oil and other products, refined products, and things like this, and not to not to mention ah nuclear fuels, which is another strategic threat,
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: of reliance. you know It doesn't matter necessarily that it just got there. It should have never ah been able to get there because there should have been a significant amount of geopolitical pushback.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: But again, unfortunately, we hadn't we hadn't seen that.
lpaltiguzman: So knowing, yeah.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: And there's too many of these ah captured elites or strategically corrupt Russia-linked political parties in Europe that have pushed for Russian energy to come back or or be promoted before it was even gone you know gone from the the scene.
lpaltiguzman: Yeah, knowing you know all the dangers that come with ah importing and being dependent on Russian products, why do you think
lpaltiguzman: Western elites and Western policymakers have been trying over and over to do resets with Russia, right? That's the case with different American administrations.
lpaltiguzman: That's the case in Europe with different, you know, in France, in Germany, always trying to give Putin or, you know, the Kremlin the benefit of the doubt and not understanding basically yeah maybe the ideology here and and the danger for Europe.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: Look, ah it's driven by pure greed. I think that Putin... all the way back to his KGB days, has looked to the West and said, what what are the strategic weaknesses of the ah you know the capitalist and open open societies that we have? and And I think that the biggest thing that we have is that ah that there are political actors that are willing to sell themselves out after they leave office, um hopefully not while they're still in office, but that may be the case as well in certain certain situations.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: um But the fact that they are willing to put profit before principle and put national security in the backseat when – to other considerations including ah you know quote getting quote-unquote cheap gas from Russia and things like this. The problem is – you know It's often said you know there is no such thing as cheap Russian gas. I agree with that, but I don't think that people often go beyond that to explain why that's the case.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: It's because of all the strings that are attached, and whether or not it is overtly said, the ah the the the point is you get yourself, your society, hooked on this energy source that then is return in return threatened to be cut off or threatened to have price hikes, you know all of these sort of things.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: using monopolistic principles, which Gazprom has used, that Rosneft has used, and others, um that the EU has has built out regulatory ah structures to push back on. And so the the notion that we could ever go back to these bad old days is is a dangerous one and something that we really need to resist.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: Am I you know am i a you know naive to the fact that there won't be politicians and business actors and and all sorts of other groups that may be pushing back for a return to business as usual? No, I know that they' it's going to happen. It's funny, Leslie, I've talked to German politicians and German thought leaders and experts ever since ah Russia's large-scale invasion began about my concerns about this, and oftentimes they'll say,
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: No, we have a Zeitung Venda. We have this Olaf Scholz announced change in the way that we are going to ah you know basically move away from Russian reliance, and and this could never, ever come back.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: I frankly laughed every time I heard that because, as you and I well know, ah this temptation is is too great. And if you go back again in KGB thug Putin's past, ah he supposedly has done his ah his his doctoral thesis, whether or not he himself wrote it or not is a topic of of academic conversation, but pointed out – the direct linkages between using energy ah for economic gain and also using energy for geopolitical concessions and national security ah strategic ah purposes.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: We have to understand this. This guy is not going to change. He he is a
lpaltiguzman: Right.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: war criminal that is bent on restoring the Soviet Union to some extent. And you started in in ah you know in Georgia and moved to Ukraine and and has effectively captured Belarus.
lpaltiguzman: Okay.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: um And we need to make sure this does not go any further and that we roll back that ah that that that that push ah from the Kremlin um and and don't get ourselves intertwined in the energy mess ah that we have been in as the transatlantic community over the past 20 years with Russia.
lpaltiguzman: So as you know, in some European quarters, the other argument that they put forward is that Europe cannot be neither too dependent on the US for its products, for its liquid gold.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: Mm-hmm.
lpaltiguzman: Both of us, we know that you cannot make equivalence between um how Russia is weaponizing its energy and the fact that in the US, the exports are driven by private companies.
lpaltiguzman: um You've said it very clearly in our podcast, actually, that I listened to again back in 2020, there is no America Corp right ah behind and and very cra from behind ah US exports, for instance.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: America prom. America prom.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: Yeah.
lpaltiguzman: um However, right now, ah There has been some politicization of USLNG with tariffs, and it's not the first time we saw that also with the first ah Trump administration.
lpaltiguzman: And with the Biden administration, we saw also some risk um with USLNG, more on the regulatory side, and environmental mental side, and so on So...
lpaltiguzman: But at the same time, when I look at the Europe's gas security right now, I see that it's very diversified in a way, and more diversified than it was back in 2021 or 2022. So if you look at your Norway is actually the largest exporter right now to Europe.
lpaltiguzman: And if you look at the whole pie of European gas imports, Norway is 30%, followed by the US, 21%.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: Mm-hmm.
lpaltiguzman: twenty one percent And then Russia, still 18%, considering both LNG and pipeline. But then you have also Algeria, which is about the same as Russia.
lpaltiguzman: And then you have others, right? so And we know that you know there is an abundance of gas supply around the world. And it's not just coming from the US. And I don't think Europe will ever reach a phase where US LNG you know, goes beyond one quarter of all European ah gas imports.
lpaltiguzman: and But what do you say to those Europeans that are basically afraid of giving away one dependence for another?
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: Well, look, first of all, don't go back to business as usual with Putin. That's my first message to any Europeans that are are considering that. um The rhetoric coming out of the Trump White House has been, frankly, atrocious to the ah you know our partners and allies in Europe over the last week.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: um And i can I can understand to some extent why they would be trying to push some sort of ah moral equivalency. We are not in any way at that point.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: And so that would be disingenuous to say the least. um But the thing that I go back to is, you know, you have to remember that, as I said in the last time we spoke, we don't have an America problem. We don't have a gas problem equivalent where we have a ministry of natural gas that is making political decisions of where and how much to send of any resource to the global market. These are private companies.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: um It is not, ah you know you know, not out of the question that you would see some level of, you ah government intervention on on our natural gas markets and our ability to export.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: We saw that, as you as you pointed out, again, this is not drawing a moral equivalence, but just pointing out different examples. We saw that during the Biden administration when there was a pause on on a new ah licenses for LNG exports and LNG export facilities.
lpaltiguzman: Yes.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: ah And that was driven by climate considerations. And we've seen, you know, to say the least threats and overt ah comments about tariffs and and the ah the balance of trade possibly being ah between the United States and Europe on on on ah you know basically having Europe buy more liquefied natural gas.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: ah but At the same time, we don't have even this government doesn't call up Chenier or other natural gas exporters and say, you have to send this cargo at this time to this port for this amount of of money.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: um And so what we will see, i think, is that this ah increase in LNG production and export by the trump administration uh while it will do nothing to achieve our climate goals i think that nevertheless it will increase global energy security because it will increase lng market liquidity and continue to push lng into the real role of being a more fungible uh global energy commodity uh remember we were talking you know less than 10 years ago about
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: incredibly small amount of spot purchases of LNG cargos from the United States. And now we're, were you know, it's a major, major supplier on the global market. And that that is all to Europe's benefit.
lpaltiguzman: I agree. and Exactly. I was going to say for lower prices to the benefits of Europe for more supply, lower prices. and Absolutely.
lpaltiguzman: um You remember when the Germans were you know at the peak of the Nord Stream debate and saga, were saying, oh the only reason why the US is opposed to the pipeline is because they want to sell more gas to us.
lpaltiguzman: um And which is interesting in today's environment because um the Trump administration.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: And by the way, sorry, just for just they were saying that before we even had the ability to export natural gas.
lpaltiguzman: Yeah.
lpaltiguzman: Right, right.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: They were saying that in 14 and 15, right?
lpaltiguzman: Yeah.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: They were presaging this argument. So it made no sense then at all.
lpaltiguzman: Yes, and and right now, what the Trump administration is like actually doing, if if they really want to mend links with Russia and that eventually Russia will send more gas into Europe again, it's completely against the economic interests in a way of US gas and US companies exporting LNG.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: It absolutely would be. It would also be against, ah frankly, President Trump's own ah correct aversion to projects like Nord Stream 2. ah you know he was you know He will say that he was the first.
lpaltiguzman: Right.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: No one was talking about Nord Stream 2 before Donald Trump. That is obviously demonstrably false.
lpaltiguzman: Right.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: You and I talked about it many years before that. to say the least. ah But nevertheless, he had the right policy instinct and and push on that. ah and And to have this administration, the second Trump administration go in the reverse direction and somehow, ah you know, green light and lift sanctions on Nord Stream and go in the other direction, that would be a tremendous policy error, a tremendous national security error.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: And frankly, all of the things that you pointed out would be reversed in a way that would be, ah you know, unthinkable even a few years ago. And so I hope they don't go down that route.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: And I can be, yeah.
lpaltiguzman: did and but Did you see by the articles ah that an American businessman is trying to buy what whatever is left of Nord Stream 2?
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: Yes.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: So, yes, there's – yeah, exactly, and and i was I'm glad that you brought that up because that is one of the things that I fear is that these sort of of gambits by you know a U.S.
lpaltiguzman: Which is interesting.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: businessman or or whoever it would maybe be, whether it's that or or those in Europe, et cetera, to try to rebrand Nord Stream and say, oh, this is a ah you know an American-owned project ah that they can pick up for pennies on the dollar from ah ah from near bankruptcy in the the canton of Zug, Switzerland.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: um This would be absolutely dangerous as well. Because first of all, this notion that if and it well if an American owned Nord Stream, then somehow they would be able to basically control Nord Stream basically control and and push back on any energy weaponization that could take place through the the infrastructure is ludicrous. i mean, it's simply ludicrous because guess why?
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: The end point of that Nord Stream 2 pipeline and the Nord Stream 1 pipeline for that matter are still in the Russian Federation. And so Vladimir Putin's Russia has the resource and can decide to turn on the tap, yes or no, at any given moment for any given geopolitical contingency. So can't happen.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: and And I fear... that there will be lobbyists in Europe and there'll be frankly lobbyists in this country or or business people that will try to band together to to resurrect these projects.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: And I believe that that would be a tremendous national security error. There is no way ah that letting more Russian gas into Europe ah would make Europe more secure, that you the U.S. would be able to, quote unquote, control this in any way.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: um And anyone who tells you otherwise is, ah you know, very under-informed about how European energy security is actually developed and operated over the past decades.
lpaltiguzman: Yeah, so that that brings me to my little pop quiz to you.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: Oh wow, okay, pop quiz, here we go.
lpaltiguzman: yeah
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: Trivia, that new a new podcast area, we're doing a trivia.
lpaltiguzman: know
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: Okay, let's do it.
lpaltiguzman: Who blew up the three lines of the Nord Stream pipeline back in September 2022?
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: Okay, so um I have a, I've been doing a large scale research project here at the Kleinman Center for Energy Policy at Penn. ah that has built on research that I think you and I probably already were talking about back in 2020 on you know tracking vessels that are are associated with Russian energy trade, with Russia's energy weaponization.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: And frankly, at that point, we were talking about tracking vessels that were trying to get around US sanctions to stop the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline ah in 2021.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: ah Well, look, I have scoured ah the entire the entirety of Northern Europe ah to meet with experts. I have traveled from Svalbard in the north, near the North Pole, ah to Helsinki and Tallinn in ah in the east down to Germany and to Brussels and NATO headquarters and met with ah with experts along the way. I've met with um Law enforcement officials, Coast Guards, Navies, you know, all of these sort of entities, um and also have gone out on the Baltic Sea itself and chartered a vessel just a few months ago in September out to the Nord Stream 2 blast site and southeast of Bornholm.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: ah so Yeah, southeast of Bornholm in the Baltic Sea, Bornholm, Denmark, the the island in the in in the western Baltic Sea. ah to get sonar data of the of the the the blast site and better understand this.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: And all of, I will just say, this is a trailer for the report, but but we have a lot of data, none of which supports ah the the you know narrative that came out um from Seymour Hersh that the United States and Norway banded together to blow up Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: And it raises absolutely significant questions, and frankly, we look on with significant skepticism,
lpaltiguzman: was was it not Was it the US s and Norway?
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: i No, it was not you the U.S. and Norway.
lpaltiguzman: No, no, but the article from that you mentioned, what I thought it Ukraine and the US.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: So Seymour Hersh came out with a story in, I believe, 2023, claiming that the U.S.
lpaltiguzman: Norway.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: s and Norway had blown up North Street 1 and 2.
lpaltiguzman: Norway, okay.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: Separately, there is a there has been a narrative that has been ah ah covered quite a bit about a quote unquote pro-Ukrainian sailboat team um that went out and sailed from the port of Varnamunda or Hoa Duna near near the the port of Rostock in northeastern Germany.
lpaltiguzman: Right.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: and blew up North Stream 1 and 2. And from our results, ah we have found data that that basically casts those stories at least to a significant amount of of skepticism, if not just to say that there are a significant number of fact-based questions that need to be answered, whether you can actually conclude that.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: And there is a significant amount of evidence that, frankly, points to the Russian Federation in this. ah There were Russian seabed warfare-capable vessels, not just any vessels, but actual seabed warfare-capable vessels that were on the Nord Stream 1 blast site seen with satellite data ah just a few days before Nord Stream was blown up in late September of 2022.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: of twenty twenty two um Earlier in September, you have the sailboat ah that was reportedly sailing around this quote unquote pro-Eukarian sailboat ah that would have been laying the explosives to blow up this pipeline.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: And frankly, ah you know, there's no mention of the fact that ah that these Russian vessels were there. months before that as well at the exact blast site. And so this is a big question, because one of the pushbacks I often get is, well, ah the Russians were just there to protect the pipeline, right? and this is one of the notions that's been out there. And frankly, if you look at what happened, at least on the face of it, again, least what open source intelligence shows us and what open source reporting has showed us,
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: is that you have ah the sailboat sailing and then the Russian vessels showing up just before the Nord Stream blast took place. However, then you also have, well before the sailboat ever sailed, back in June, ah months before that explosion took place, the same Russian seabed warfare-capable vessels also at the Nord Stream 1 blast site.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: And then throughout 2021, we saw basically the... we saw the ah basically the the Russian ah construction fleet that was circumventing US sanctions to complete the construction of Nord Stream 2 sitting for weeks and months at a time directly over what would eventually become the Nord Stream 2 blast site.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: And so there are a lot of, again, ah areas that point to the Russian Federation as a potential culprit for this.
lpaltiguzman: no
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: um And I will say that we'll basically end the the the trailer there and say that this report will be out in the coming weeks and I look forward to sharing it with your audience.
lpaltiguzman: Okay, I'm very curious about it. So short answer, Russia.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: Yes, short answer, Russia. But um again, it's more of a we view a skepticism conclusion than we know that it was Russia conclusion, to be clear.
lpaltiguzman: Yeah.
lpaltiguzman: Yeah. and And on my end, um the Russian theory makes sense also on the contractual gas side perspective, because they were able to declare force merger after, only after the blast.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: Yes.
lpaltiguzman: um and Yeah, many other motivations.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: there's a lot There's a lot to talk about that that I will say I'm happy to come on and do a deep dive specifically on that and go through all of the the gory details if your audience can you know is is interested in that.
lpaltiguzman: Right, that would be interesting. Yeah.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: in
lpaltiguzman: Okay, let's move to the second question.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: All right.
lpaltiguzman: What is behind the attack of the undersea power cable is linked to?
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: Yeah.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: S-Link 2, okay, so so on Christmas Day, December 25th of 2024, so just two and a half months ago, ah the Eagle S, a Cook Island flagged ah cargo container ship,
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: ah ah effectively dragged its anchor, was shown to have dragged its anchor through the S-Link 2 electricity cable between Finland and Estonia. um And again, this is in the weeks before Finland and – or sorry, the ah the the Baltic states ah were trying to and then ultimately have in the past few weeks successfully desynchronize their electricity grid from – the old Braille system, the Russian system, ah Soviet system, and linked it now with the European Union. And so to take away the ah the grid balancing ah conduits that you in and and you know grid stabilization conduits of S-linked to Finland, that could possibly point to Russian motivation to undermine that synchronization process
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: And, of course, we've seen a lot of these other cable cuts, whether it be the Yipeng 3 that cut the ah ah Sea Lion 1 and the BCS cable in in November of 2024,
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: ah or or other examples, including one that happened earlier today. i don't know if you saw that. There was a Cape cut of Sea Line 1, again, being cut off of the um the island of Gotland in the Central Baltic Sea.
lpaltiguzman: Yes.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: Haven't even done any preliminary analysis on that yet. But again, what we're seeing when you actually look at the data, let's take Gipeng 3, for example. The Yipeng 3 was shown to have been operating as a bulk carrier ah in Chinese waters from, if I look back at, you know basically in my own analysis, looking back at its operations, ah you know basically for almost all of the past five years, never leaving Chinese waters.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: If you then look and see In, I believe, March of last year, of 2024, the ownership changed of that vessel. This is a a Chinese flag vessel.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: And three days after the ownership changed, for the first time in ah almost a five-year period, that Yipeng III vessel sailed directly to Nadhotka near Vladivostok in the Russian Far East, and then eventually sailed around the world until it was making runs between Murmansk and the Russian Federation in the Arctic,
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: ah to the eastern Mediterranean, eventually going to Ust Luga in the Russian Federation before having cut these cables. And so, again, pointing out that there is a significant ah change, at least in in openly observable operations of these sort of vessels before they do this, ah you know, again, points to the Russian Federation in a lot of these cases.
lpaltiguzman: okay
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: So I guess to say Russia, again, if you answer question, yeah.
lpaltiguzman: OK. Russia, another one for Russia. So this is actually, we see an upstick in those kind of hybrid warfare activities where European infrastructure, whether it's energy related or um technology related, are being intentionally targeted, damaged,
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: Yep.
lpaltiguzman: But at the same time, Europe doesn't call it an act of war. We don't really um retaliate in any way. i don't think so. However, we're starting to think of how to protect those infrastructure.
lpaltiguzman: Where does it leave Europe? More vulnerable? um you know i think we we've just mentioned Norway earlier. which is now the largest exporter to Europe of gas.
lpaltiguzman: If anything were to happen to this pipeline bringing Norwegian gas, it would be like a huge um um you know security concern for Europe. um Prices would skyrocket and leave Europe in a very bad situation.
lpaltiguzman: how how And you're looking into this specifically, how to protect those infrastructure and um and how what should be Europe's new code of conduct when it comes to Russia for those kinds accidents, incidents. and
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: Well, look, i've been I've been calling for NATO Article 4, which is a consultative mechanism, ah to be enacted since these incidents have taken place. And look, weve we're talking about offshore critical infrastructure protection,
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: right now but but just so the audience knows we've seen dozens and dozens of these incidents onshore not only against energy infrastructure but also against transport infrastructure rail lines we've seen cuts of telecommunications cables we've seen uh in finland guide you know guy wires of the uh of cell towers get cut and the cell tower get pushed over um and and we've seen a number of these sort of things and to to say nothing of uh russian uh military drones ah reportedly being seen over, for example, German LNG facilities like the Brunsbüttel LNG terminal ah last August, in August of 2024, the reports of that happening.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: um So there's a lot of these that have not been explained. Some of them, however, have been attributed either to Russian actors or non-Russian nationals that have been shown to have been recruited via telegram and other social media ah by the Russian military intelligence, the GRU, to carry out these acts of sabotage. And I call it kind of Putin's dirty deals done dirt cheap, to to grab the ACDC line.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: um And in saying, we're going to pay you a little bit of money, you you know local ne'er do well, and in exchange, you have to do a little amount of of sabotage. And so we've seen this. and And frankly, I've even seen this in my research ah you know in and kind of a meta sort of situation. I was speaking at a conference in Bonn, Germany, last January.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: ah on critical infrastructure protection and Nord Stream and all of these sort of European energy issues related to this. And trying to get back to the airport in Frankfurt from Bonn, I was planning on taking the last high-speed rail connection so I could get the rest of the conference day in and then go to the airport um from Sigbord Bonn to the Frankfurt airport.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: And ah I couldn't take that. And the reason I couldn't take that was that all of the trains were canceled that afternoon. ah Because the electricity cables for that rail line were also cut.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: And so, again, in the hire of irony, I believe early a critical infrastructure protection focused energy security conference because of a critical infrastructure protection, know, protection issue or or attack going on in a rail line that I actually needed to use.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: And so, yeah, we need to be much more clear eyed. I think NATO Article 4, which is again is this this consultative mechanism where the the alliance announces that they yeah you know we we know that these these acts are going on, especially those that have been attributed.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: We can attribute them to the Russian Federation, and these are the sort of steps that we're going to take to push back or at least to politically point out to the Kremlin that we know what you're doing. um We are willing to say it publicly and to to to raise the level of deterrence against the Kremlin on these sort of sort of activities, but also, Leslie, to make it clear to our own publics that we're taking this seriously.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: And so you know NATO has done a lot of stuff, but it's it's not there yet.
lpaltiguzman: why and why why were yeah what Why is Russia testing the limits here? what what are the what what is the message
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: Yeah. I mean, the message is clear. The message is, um first of all, trying to undermine confidence in Western societies that their electorates are, you know, basically the the the people of these countries are concerned, trying to raise the concern in in the electorates of these countries, that Their leadership can't protect them from Russian hybrid threats.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: ah And frankly, also to undermine Western support for Ukraine, that you know these sort of attacks will go on so long as is the West is supporting Ukraine in its its heroic defense.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: Well, guess what? We can't give into that sort of blackmail. We can't give into that sort of fear-mongering. um and And, again, that undermines our energy security and energy stability um and only can lead to energy poverty in the future if we don't do something about it.
lpaltiguzman: Thank
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: so So, again, that's part of it. But then the other thing is there's a number of examples where I would call this, and I've heard and, and frankly, have interviewed other military-focused experts and former officials ah that call these shaping operations.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: And what a shaping operation means is it's something to basically set up the battle space yeah before or basically to to before an attack takes place or or to try to um undermine your adversary's ah resilience in case there's a a future contingency.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: And so one example of this, and one of the the first examples that we looked at in our study here at Penn was the connection between the island of Svalbard and near the North Pole
lpaltiguzman: Thank you.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: And the Norwegian mainland that was cut by a Russian fishing vessel, the Melkart-5. um and And we assess that that may very well have been in the Kremlin's interest to have this sabotage act take place.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: ah to cut off at least one of the two cables connecting Svalbard to Norway because it Svalbard hosts one of the largest ground stations for ah telecommunications, satellite communications, commercial satellite communications on the planet.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: And so really, you know, something that happened, that couldn that happened in early January of 2022. And so Again, just weeks before its large-scale invasion of Ukraine, it's doing this.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: And if you're going back to your example that you brought up of the S-Link 2 cable in being cut in in December of last year, again, just weeks before ah the Baltic states were to desynchronize from the the Russian grid and synchronize with the EU.
lpaltiguzman: Yeah.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: So again, shaping operations is the other motivations.
lpaltiguzman: Yeah. Yeah. I feel now that, you know, we're looking at the future of NATO, the transatlantic relationship, we'll have to come back to this to see, you know, which umbrella organization is best suited to take into under its, you know, umbrella, this topic of protection of um um critical infrastructure.
lpaltiguzman: For now, agree NATO. Maybe the EU, um um maybe a special special year new European defense force to be seen.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: Yep.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: And I'll just say, NATO has done, ah under the political level, right, at the operational level, I think they've done a tremendous job.
lpaltiguzman: Yeah.
lpaltiguzman: Right.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: I've met with ah the the personnel of the new NATO Critical Energy Infrastructure Protection Cell or or Subsea Infrastructure Protection Cell at NATO headquarters. It was set up in 2023.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: ah There's now a NATO operational center for offshore critical infrastructure protection ah in in Northcom and in the United Kingdom. And, of course, they have launched Operation Baltic Sentry in the recent weeks to deter Russia or any other actor from ah going after subsea infrastructure. But it's a difficult, difficult task, as you well know from your your days with SinMax, of just how much territory that you would have to you know monitor and defend and and it's just a it's a it's a very uh significant technical um challenge
lpaltiguzman: Yeah, great. So we have one, two minutes to move to your personal question because we we talk so much about Europe's senior energy security.
lpaltiguzman: and So Benjamin, you ingest on a daily basis a lot of information. What's your routine? Like, do you learn? Like, how do you you read? What do you read? what kind of knowledge do you keep um from, you know, all your education? and is it constant study, constant learning?
lpaltiguzman: Like for me, you're like of a modern version of Gargantua. And I mean it as a compliment. I don't know if you're familiar, but like raising it,
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: I'm not familiar with Gargantua.
lpaltiguzman: You're not? Okay.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: No.
lpaltiguzman: So it's a it's a ah protagonist ah in a story written by Rabelais. So he was like a physician, a prolific um reader, educator.
lpaltiguzman: well-versed in the classics, and he thought how to best educate somebody. right like That was like ah one of the novels with the gargantua, and it's like testing some theories on how to best educate someone.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: Sure. Uh-huh.
lpaltiguzman: And then one of his conclusions is like a constant regimen of constant study and different disciplines. And when I look at you, you know you have some physics in your background, you have ah politics,
lpaltiguzman: crazyy study So how do you bridge everything in and just like the amount of information that needs to be consumed? And at the same time, we work, you know, in a in a world with social media that can divert your attention and your own social media.
lpaltiguzman: We have AI now coming to the picture. and with the question of how to remain relevant as as experts um so i don't know it's a big question but uh i'm just curious yeah
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: Yeah. ah Well, look, i yeah and's ah that's I'll try to do Gargantua justice here. um i In terms of the information that i I digest on a daily basis, I try to keep AI out of my information diet for now.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: But in terms of, of you know, it's it's a wide, wide range of information. you know from from anything from journal articles to ah you know a lot of ah lot of consumption of ah news reports of what's going on. I think that's that's ah in terms of these critical infrastructure protection incidents and things like this.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: I read a lot of Norwegian and Danish and Finnish and Swedish language media in particular. I think that in in this case, um kind of the four...
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: ah um
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: Nordic ah public broadcasters that that are looking into these issue sets. They often are the gold standard in in the Baltic Sea region for reporting on this. And so i've' I'm constantly reading DR r and NKT and SVT and YLE in Finland. So um give those those four a shout out. um and And then just in general, again,
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: i tell I tell my students this all the time. It's it's something where you need to keep ah your baseline ah reading up in terms of broader strategic reading, um scientific reading, scientific articles, scientific books and texts and things like this.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: And at the same time, couple that with and information you know trying to get an information environment that understands what are good sources on social media for open source intelligence, ah what are good sources of information that is maybe not reading, but rather ah for data analysis.
lpaltiguzman: That's
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: I have a account on Planet. Penn is supporting that ah for our entire campus here. So Planet is a a commercial geospatial imagery company that primarily operates optical satellites.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: um I use marine traffic. Of course I've looked at Synmax and Leviathan and the the sort of products that you've looked at and and again it's it's a a synergy of all of these and then you have to actually bring that back out to the public in a way that is understandable and getting your analysis out. and So it's a balance between um you know trying to plan and write large-scale research reports and also sending out SITREPs on a daily or or or weekly basis when necessary to keep folks up to speed on what's going on.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: And so it's it's a balance and it's a struggle, but I'll try to do Gark and Tua proud in the future keep it up.
lpaltiguzman: I think you're doing it very well. Thank you so much, Benjamin. It was a great pleasure to have you. and we'll talk soon again. I think we'll have a lot to discuss in the coming months.
Dr. Benjamin Schmitt: Absolutely, Leslie. Always credit be on.
lpaltiguzman: This episode was recorded on February 21st, 2025. This is Leslie Paltic Guzman saying good day and good luck.
