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Tough Vegas Trip, Butler on Deck, + Old Men Debate State of the Team
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Welcome to Episode #34 of the No Conference for Old Men Podcast.
Our Cougars are 4-3 after a tough Vegas trip, with a win over Notre Dame sandwiched between 2 tough losses to Alabama & San Diego State. But after a critical week of practice to adjust things, Butler is up next in the Big XII / Big East Challenge along with a game vs Troy.
Please have a listen as we take a different approach in this episode, with a more abbreviated summary of the games & previews and add on a 3rd segment where the 3 Old Men weigh in and discuss/debate the current state of this Cougars team.
- No Conference for Old Men is available for free via Spotify / Apple Podcast / SoundCloud & the GoCoogs.com website; we're also available via the Republic of Football Podcast feed from the folks at Dave Campbell's Texas Football as their only basketball-centric offering
- Intro / Exit music: Ground Zero provided by FreeBeats.io
- Please follow us on gocoogs.com/old-men/
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Transcript
Introduction to Episode 34
00:00:07
Speaker
Welcome folks to episode number 34 of the No Conference for Old Men podcast. The podcast where three old guys are talking Houston and Cougar's basketball with a bit of Big 12 coverage added in as well, and proud members of the Goku's.com network, the undisputed number one Houston and Cougar's content provider.
Recap of Players' Era Festival
00:00:25
Speaker
Well,
00:00:26
Speaker
really a tough trip out to Vegas for the Players' Era Festival, but we learned a lot about the current state of the team with the two losses to Alabama and San Diego State University and a close win versus Notre Dame.
New Episode Format
00:00:38
Speaker
So we're going to try a bit of a new format for this episode since no one's really wanting to sit through a painstaking breakdown of the losses.
00:00:46
Speaker
It'd be like going through, I guess, back-to-back root canals, potentially. So instead, we're going to go through some themes around all of our games in Vegas in segment one. Then we'll cover the upcoming two games in Butler and Troy in segment two, then focus the rest of the episode on having a bit of a discussion or even potentially a debate on the current state of this year's team and what each of us believe is necessary to turn the corner and become the national title contender. We all believe this team has the potential to become. So let's get started, guys.
Alabama Game Themes
00:01:21
Speaker
In looking at the three games in Vegas, what were some of the recurring themes and trends you saw from a coach's perspective, Tom? Okay, I'm going to be the dentist. I am going to go through about a two-minute ah root canal here. some Yeah, go for it.
00:01:36
Speaker
From the video, the video does not lie. That's the great thing about about that is, you know, every coach, players will always come off the off the sideline off the bench and they'll swear that they did their job, you know, and then you show them the film and and the film doesn't lie. But here's some things that struck me about the Alabama game is first off, we were out rebounded 48 to 39. Yeah. We've always hung our hat.
00:02:01
Speaker
on being one of the toughest teams. One of the stats that reflect toughness is rebounding and you you got to call a spade a spade. We just got out rebounded. We gave up 20 offense rebounds. Now we can't always ah put blame on the bigs fault. Guards have to get in there. If you're a guard, your man doesn't crash the boards and he goes back on defense. Well, you become a chaser and you got to get in there. And while the bigs are are tipping the ball around and all that, you got to step in there and I guess the most rebounds also when we give up dribble penetration and then we have to help. And then you have rotations. A lot of times you don't have a, you know, your, your original block out guy. It's not that your block out guy anymore. There's kind of a gray area. So it's not always the big fault ah for being out rebounded. I will say this too many possessions when we were on an offense and we we took a shot Kelvin normally sends three to the offensive boards and two back. A lot of times I just saw one guy.
00:02:59
Speaker
trying to get a rebound and our guys were just, uh, they were getting blocked out and they weren't making multiple efforts to get the ball. It was like they felt contact and then they just stopped trying to get the offensive rebound Kelvin teams in the past.
00:03:14
Speaker
You see the shot go up and you see the three guys get to their specific spots and then, you know, just multiple efforts trying to get offensive rebounds, you know, just trying to get a piece of the ball, just tip it, keep alive. I did not see that. I haven't seen a whole lot of that this year. A couple of key plays in the Alabama game was the Mark Sears three with 54 seconds left. We're up by four points. Malik is on Sears and and they just set a simple, simple screen, you know,
00:03:43
Speaker
Some people call NATO, it's an off offensive genius. Well, this was just one simple screen, almost like an excuse me screen. And Malik, I don't know what he was doing, but he got nailed with the screen. And as soon as he felt contact, he just stopped instead of fighting over at the
Alabama Game Analysis
00:04:00
Speaker
top of the screen or getting in the guy's back pocket and then making him crawl off the screen. He just gets nailed. And then to make it matters worse, he doesn't even put a hand up. There was no help from Joe. So I'm not sure if Kelvin.
00:04:13
Speaker
wants Jojo to help off if, you know, if somebody gets open on the screen, but Sears had a wide open look, you know, hands down, man down. So they say in the NBA. So that was a key play. So instead of a four point lead, you know, we're only up by one now.
00:04:27
Speaker
39 seconds left, another one, we're up two. Juwan misses the free throw. He made the first in, first one, he misses the second. So that, we're only up two now instead of up by by three. So we're up by two. Reitzel gets the ball in the right corner and he drives. Sharp comes out to close out. The close out probably could have been better. I think his what he was kind of leaning forward, but Reitzel kind of beats him a little bit to the elbow and then he slips.
00:04:54
Speaker
Reisel slips and falls and they call it they call a foul on Sharpe. And he makes both. You know, that's what you get when you keep a team in the game. I mean, you can't let official calls in the last couple of seconds to determine the outcome of the game. Here was a really good set. We had a tie game and we call it timeout. We come out with a timeout. We set a pin down screen for Cryer.
00:05:19
Speaker
And then he goes to Malik and he sets what's called a ghost screen. And then Josho comes back and sets a flare and LJ was wide open for the three, but Malik was late on the delivery. He kind of fumbled the ball around. And instead of having having a wide open three, LJ's defender was able to recover. And then he had to drive with his left hand and shoot a little mid range. So I think if Uzan was in the game.
00:05:48
Speaker
He delivers that ball right on time. And, you know, we don't know if Cryer would have been made the shot, but it literally would have been an uncontested three because LJ's man got nailed on that flare screen and he was so open. Um, that was my synopsis of the, of the
Notre Dame Game Summary
00:06:03
Speaker
Bama game. well I'll skip the Notre Dame game. Both teams played like they were wearing concrete Nike's in that game. I wouldn't say it was putrid. Yeah. You'll.
00:06:15
Speaker
The tape will never go into the Naismith Hall of Fame, but it you know it was a W. San Diego State game, just like the Bama game, Magic Johnson used to call these situations winning time.
San Diego State Game Recap
00:06:27
Speaker
And we had 26 seconds left and Joanne missed the front end of a one-on-one. We were we were up 65-63. If he makes one of them, we're up by three. He makes both of them, we're up by four, but he misses both of them. We have a two-point lead.
00:06:41
Speaker
San Diego State gets to rebound. They set up a sideline out of bounds play. A couple of mistakes. The first one was LJ tries to go over the the top of a flare screen. ah He did scramble and get out there, but San Diego State had a wide open three and the in the left corner. And here's what happened during winning time here is Emmanuel Sharp was guarding Miles Byrd. And when the shot went up, he got frozen by the shot.
00:07:10
Speaker
He had no clue where Miles Byrd was. And the miss was long. It went to the weak side board. Two things here. Sharp didn't block out. Juwan, for some reason, tried to rebound the ball with one hand instead of two. And it was tipped around, tipped around. Byrd came up with it and was fouled by Sharp. and And he makes the two free throws. Then the game goes over time. You know, we'll say this about Sharp is normally, if it's not the last section of the game, normally Sharp would probably not have to block out a guy because usually the guy he's guarding doesn't go to the boards. You use it gets back and then you just check and see if the man's going to the boards. If he's getting back on defense, then you become a chaser. But in this case, there's not going to be any transition on the other end because there's, there's like a couple of seconds left in the game and.
00:07:58
Speaker
those things are inexcusable, uh, maybe, maybe for a freshmen, but not for guys that had been in Kelvin system, you know, for, for three years in Juwan's case, been here, been here for six years. So, you know, that's the difference between winning and losing yeah is, uh, these couple of plays here, uh,
00:08:15
Speaker
Nothing fiscal. You know, these are mostly mental errors. Yeah, no great perspectives there. Thanks, Tom. How about you, Bill, from a player's perspective with the Vegas games? Yeah, well, leading into the the Vegas games, I want to just really quickly mention two things about the Hofstra game. One was that, because this plays directly into the Alabama game, it was almost five minutes into the second half of the Hofstra game before they shot their first free throw. I wish to God that that could have been close to the case in the Alabama game, but unfortunately not. And the other thing was, and Tommy had mentioned rebounding, and I just wanted to mention the fact that ah in that game Mercy had nine boards, so
00:09:00
Speaker
I know for a lot of people that want him to play more, you know, that helps his argument. I mean, there's a lot that could be talked about, analyzed, dissected from this game. In fact, we could probably spend a couple of hours doing so. I'll mention some pluses and minuses from the game, but my preamble is this. One, it's still November, and there's a ton of time to to get things figured out. Two, yeah I've seen a lot of negativity so while surrounding both
00:09:35
Speaker
this in San Diego State, but there was a lot after this one. If Cryer's shot at the buzzer goes in, and nobody's complaining. It's literally the final couple of seconds of the game to determine the reaction to the game from a lot of people. The shot didn't go in, move on. With that said, here are my pluses and minuses. The pluses are sharp and cryer. I mean, they did absolutely everything they could to step up for the Cougs.
00:10:05
Speaker
you know, Kelvin during the press conference afterwards said he's still looking for that guy who will step up when the game's on the line. And and I thought that, you know, both Cryer and Sharp did that, especially Cryer, kind of because partly he had to because everyone else was following out. I looked going forward for probably Sharp being the the one, I think, who will, in a sense, replace shed when the game's on the line and and the ball needs to be in someone's hands. Tuggler was a little up and down against Alabama, but he had eight boards and he blocked eight shots, which is which is amazing. He was extremely active. Wilson, and and we'll get to Wilson like you did, Tom, but
00:10:54
Speaker
I thought he played an active game. Those are my pluses. First minus is, is use on 12 minutes, 12 minutes out of 45 minutes. And he fouled out, he fouled out of both Alabama and San Diego state.
00:11:12
Speaker
I mean, this cannot happen. Even in, you know, in a game where the, I think the refs wanted to be the star of of certainly the Alabama game, yeah the point guard is so critically important in Kelvin's system. And the point guard's got to be on the floor for more than 12 out of 45 minutes. It just can't happen again. My next minus, Roberts.
00:11:37
Speaker
One rebound. How can someone like Roberts, who's been so active throughout his career, get one rebound in that game when when there were so many missed shots? yeah that They out rebounded us, as you said, Tom 48-39.
00:11:53
Speaker
You know, Roberts is just too good to allow that to happen and and for us to be that ineffective on the boards. We only had eight assists on 30 made field goals in that game. And that means one that that we're not.
00:12:08
Speaker
doing much inside. We also didn't shoot all that well, but eight assists is not especially good. And the final minus is, as you were talking about, Tom, that final minute. I mean, we're up for Wilson guarding Sears. Sears did not bring the ball down. And I looked at a friend of mine. You guys know, Rob? ah I looked at him and I said they're running a play for Sears. I mean, they had to be because because he's the point guard. He's the guy that handles the ball. He's down on the baseline. You know, they picked down and.
00:12:44
Speaker
Wilson and I just like you had mentioned Tom and I've got it written here was unable to fight through The pick and Calvin brought that up in the press conference as well that they needed Wilson to fight through that pick He didn't Sears gets a ball at the top of the key pretty easy three-pointer and now a four-point lead You know, possibly for with the ball if he doesn't get the shot off or or we defend whatever it's now down to one and they're right back in it. One thing I didn't understand was when we went into overtime at sharp fouled out.
00:13:22
Speaker
you know Obviously Usain was out, but Ramon was playing in overtime and everyone could see. Cryer was just dead tired and we had no other offensive options on the floor, nobody. I mean, we were outscored seven to two in overtime, Cryer.
00:13:39
Speaker
was handling the ball. He was the one and only offensive option and went 0 for six. And I don't know if you guys heard anything. But why is Walker on the floor as opposed to Arsenal? I didn't understand that. I know that Kelvin mentioned that he didn't feel like Mercy's experienced enough at this point to be in there at the end in overtime. I think it's still stiffness, right? Stiffness for Arsenal.
00:14:08
Speaker
That's what I have written down. If if the Achilles was stiff or it was hurting, but, you know, I was watching, of course, against Notre Dame and he came out and and pretty much carried us in the first half. so So he was fine there. Yeah, that's what I've got for that. Notre Dame, not a ton to say. I mean, to me, we looked Again, as you mentioned, Tom, we we just looked tired. We looked lethargic and we looked uninspired. But considering that we'd just come off that Alabama game the night before, it was certainly good to get the win, yeah even if Notre Dame was playing without their best player, possibly the NBA player.
00:14:51
Speaker
A few more pluses in this game. Arsenault, first and foremost, he just had a phenomenal first half. Six of seven for the game. Almost all of that in the first half. Once again, he he showed, without knowing the status of his Achilles, showed why I wish he had been on the floor at the end of the Alabama game and why he probably needs to be on the floor more often than not when when the team does need offense. Sharp was a plus, he led us in scoring, four boards, four assists, and he's been playing a lot of D on the opponent's best player. I really like the way Sharp's been playing.
00:15:32
Speaker
I agree. Roberts was more of a plus in the Notre Dame game. He he came back, he had nine points, he had eight boards, three of them offensive. So at least he was more active down low. And as opposed to Alabama, where we only had eight assists on 30 made shots against Notre Dame, we had 19 assists on 33 made field goals. Usan did have nine assists in that game. And what do you know, zero fouls. And we only committed five turnovers against Notre Dame. and The minuses.
00:16:05
Speaker
We were out rebounded by a small team. Now, granted, it was 34-32. thirty four thirty two is almost even, but the the rebounding seems to be a recurring issue so far this season. You know, we got the win and and that's the most important thing. ah San Diego State, this never should have gone to overtime. And you talked about some of the things at the end time. are Twice in in Las Vegas, we had control of games late. We didn't execute on either end down the stretch.
00:16:36
Speaker
And you know we were in control virtually the entire second half of the San Diego State and and then just kind of fell off the end. Cryer and Sharp were pluses in this game. They carried us completely carried us offensively. And it was good to see Cryer bouncing back. Roberts.
00:16:55
Speaker
I gave him a plus. He was non-existent offensively, but he but he did grab 12 boards against San Diego State, seven of which were offensive. Javier only played 20 minutes, but he was active, six boards, three offensive. Tuggler had nine rebounds and five of them are on the offensive side. Negatives, we committed 12 turnovers in that game to their seven. That's just a rarity. we we never commit more turnovers than the opponent. Usan fouled out again. ah yeah He played much longer, but but he wasn't there and on the stretch and overtime. And this will be discussed further when we get into our state of the team, at least by me. They had 38 rebounds to our 40, 14 of which were offensive. And a lot of them came at critical times and they're not a huge team. and
00:17:48
Speaker
We just didn't look especially good and down the stretch. I mean, that they got a couple rebounds off of missed free throws. I think that, that about covers it. Yeah. It was a mixed bag from an analytics perspective for our Cougs, even in the Notre Dame win.
00:18:06
Speaker
And I'm going to treat these games in Vegas as a group. So some of the stats I'm going to be citing are kind of across all three games. So on offense, for a team that has not historically shot well, we were number 193 last season in the effective field goal percentage.
Performance Comparisons
00:18:22
Speaker
We shot even worse than our average in all three games. In our two losses, though we offensive rebounded actually to our usual standard, we shot exceptionally poorly from two point range, being under 40% from two point range in both games.
00:18:38
Speaker
which would be well within the bottom 10% of all of division when in basketball, just to get a sense of how bad that actually is. And just to make things worse or more difficult for ourselves, we turn the ball over well above our norms in both losses as well. So a pretty ugly sight on offense.
00:18:58
Speaker
On defense, for a team that has prided itself on challenging every shot, we did not defend the three-point line well in all three games. And in our two losses, we were not able to turn Alabama or San Diego State over at the rate we are accustomed to. And even though we haven't been great at defensive rebounding historically, we were especially bad in our two losses, allowing both teams to offensive rebound over 37% of their misses. Really just just bad.
00:19:28
Speaker
So though for the year our Cougs are still rated 15th in offensive efficiency and number three in defensive efficiency by Ken Pond this year, when you look deeper into the stats for the last three games, you get a better understanding of what actually happened. So clearly a lot for the team to work on going into this last month of games before Big 12 season
Upcoming Matches Preview
00:19:49
Speaker
begins.
00:19:49
Speaker
Now let's get into the preview of the two games that are scheduled for this week. ah Biggies Challenge game versus Sneaky Good Butler, and then a game versus Troy. And guys, let's focus mostly on the discussion on Butler here, since we've still got our third segment to go through. Bill, what's your quick player's take on these two matchups? Okay, well, Butler's, Butler right now, they're seven and one, that they're, they play in the Biggies, they're coached by Thad Maada, people,
00:20:18
Speaker
I would imagine if if you followed any college basketball you'll know the name this is his fourth year at. Get butler he spent fourteen years in ohio state where he had a lot of success in the big ten last year they finished eighteen and fifteen and they were under five hundred in the big east.
00:20:34
Speaker
Their best wins so far are an 87-77, a 10-point win on a neutral floor over Mississippi State. Quite honestly, not much other than that. The game before Mississippi State was ranked 23 at the time.
00:20:52
Speaker
They beat Northwestern in the same tournament, 71-69. Their worst loss, which is actually their only loss, was ah was by two, but it was to Austin Peay, who I've seen almost across the board, predicted fourth in the Atlantic Sun. This team can score, they can defend fairly well, but their Achilles heel, and this is a big one, is that they turn the ball over a ton.
00:21:20
Speaker
They play eight or nine players, so they're, they're deep and they're top scorers or seniors. So they've got some experience and the the players to to pay attention to. Number one is.
00:21:33
Speaker
Jamil Telfer to 6-7, 230 pound forward, scores 18 a game, four rebounds, three assists, commits two turnovers a game, but he shoots 45% from three. Pierre Brooks, like another 230 pound, 6-6 forward.
00:21:52
Speaker
This is his second year at Butler, transferred from Michigan State, 14 and a half points, five and a half rebounds. 2.3 turnovers a game, but he shoots 44% from three. Patrick McCaffrey, who transferred from, Tom, you'll know him, transferred from Iowa, 6'9", 200 pound senior small forward.
00:22:14
Speaker
13 and a half points. 13 and a half points, four and a half boards, 50% this year from three. Then their shooting guard, his name is Finley Bizjack. He was all Big East freshman team last year. He is a poor shooter, but does everything else pretty well, although he averages over two turnovers a game. And then their point guard,
00:22:43
Speaker
just transferred in from Tulane. His name's Colby King and seven, seven points, five boards, and again, more than two turnovers a game. They're a 42% three point shooting team. They average 76 and a half points a game, 14 and a half turnovers a game, which which once again demonstrates just how absolutely bad they are with the ball. They're not a big team, although they do have A semi-productive seven footer off the bench, but without a solid point guard, they again are are just extraordinarily turnover prone, which plays right into what we do defensively. They start so four guys that are six, six or taller with some bulk. So that that you know could be a challenge when all four big guys are on the floor.
00:23:34
Speaker
But it also provides us with with mit mismatches offensively, us especially Cryer, Uzan, and Sharp. I think that ah two guys that will probably see the court a bit more will be Arsenal for sure because of the height. And I think Mercy will get to play a bit more as well.
00:23:53
Speaker
and ah you know But Butler, again, and they're a well-coached team. They play solidly in pretty much every aspect other than controlling the ball. And I think our D will will force quicker than usual shots, especially from three for them. So that I don't think they come anywhere close to to shooting at the at the percentage that they're used to. They're gonna commit lots of turnovers. I think they're gonna be frustrated with our defense.
00:24:21
Speaker
and They also do not offensive rebound. So when they miss shots, we we should feast on the defensive boards, I hope. If we limit fouls, move the ball well, hit the boards, score off their turnovers, no problem at all. At Fertitta, I see us winning 81-66. Okay. Nice. How about you, Tom? What's your coach's perspective on the games? Well, first, getting back to Patrick McCaffrey, the question is,
00:24:51
Speaker
Did he get sick of his dad or did his dad get sick of him as far as, you know, as far as transfer. And so seriously, i I don't know what the reason was, but he's a lefty. He has a good shooter. So you can't let him shoot any, any rhythm threes coaches perspective. What I've gathered for this first part of the season, especially the Alabama game, we have to stop reaching and hacking, especially our bigs, our bigs are just there. They're constantly reaching a hack and whether.
00:25:20
Speaker
They're coming over, they'll but you know we'll we'll trap the post, we'll monster the post. Instead of going straight up, you know always yeah looking to reach and hack at the ball just just too much. you know our our Our guards are a little bit handsy that way too, but that stuff's gotta get cleaned up. One thing to say about Uzan is, you know he's coachable because in a press conference about a week and a half ago, Kelvin said,
00:25:44
Speaker
to Mylos, he goes, we foul here, but you know, uh, you need to, cause the first couple of games, I don't think he had a whole lot of fouls. Maybe Mylos took that too much to heart. And then the rebounding, somehow we got to get back to that old, you know, dog scrappy rebound. And, you know, I haven't seen ah a whole lot of that, you know, maybe getting some fresh blood in there, like, uh, like mercy who's, who's hungry.
00:26:13
Speaker
To get in there, you know, maybe that would help. but i don't I don't know. Kelvin's a Hall of Fame coach. He knows more in his little pinky than I do in my whole body. So Kelvin's the only one amongst us it's at practice every day, you know, in season 15, 24 sevens. It would be kind of nice to see Mercy in there because when I see him play, it looks like he's a hungry player. And I don't know if some of our guys have been here, ah you know, too long and gotten a little complacent. I don't know.
00:26:41
Speaker
That's a question we can't answer her because we're not privy to what goes on and the inner makings of, uh, of, of the team. But I do think that the friendly confines of, of Fertitta, we will be Butler. Can't keep it close though. Uh, can't let dog hang around your porch because if you do.
00:27:01
Speaker
Sooner or later he's going to jump up and bite you in the butt. We got to close these games out. I will say this to any kind of close game of one or two points or three bigs or their liabilities at the free throw line. Yeah. They're almost, they're almost turnovers. Say a couple of seconds are left and we're up by one and the opponent misses a shot. You know, chances are a big's going to get the rebound and they're going to foul, you know, so now now you got your big on the line.
00:27:28
Speaker
you know You can't go small in a situation like that because you know you need you need stops. But then again, you also need free throw shooters on the floor. So we'll see. Hey, Bill, why don't you go ahead and talk briefly about the Troy game. And I'll let Tom do the same. And I'll cover both games.
00:27:44
Speaker
one Okay, Troy's coming in there they play in the Sun Belt Consistently I four different prognosticators that I somewhat respect Everyone has Troy finishing second in the in the Sun Belt this year. So they'll be competitive in a obviously a smaller conference ah the head coaches Scott cross he's actually a very good coach. The past three seasons he's won 20 games each year. His teams and the teams at Troy in particular pressure the absolute hell out of the ball. They're one of the top teams in the country but not only at forcing steals but just enforcing turnovers overall. That's that's what they do that
00:28:31
Speaker
their mantra. This year, they're five and three. Their best win is over Toledo by 10. And I mentioned that because the team we play at the Fertitta Center following Troy would be Toledo. So they beat Toledo by 10. Their losses, I'll mention all three of them, they they lost at Arkansas by 16. They lost at Oregon by 21. And they lost at home to perennial NCAA title contender Merrimack by four. Hey, don't sleep on Merrimack. They play a great two, three zone. Okay. I'll take your word for it. They take away your threes, but they can't rebound worth a darn. Gotcha. This is a much better defensive team than they are an offensive team. Troy's a very up-tempo team, especially on the defensive end, where, as mentioned, they're they're great at
00:29:30
Speaker
forcing steals, forcing lots of turnovers. ah Offensively, they're a, again, as mentioned, they're a really poor shooting team, but they do crash the offensive boards, especially their guards. which could be interesting. They score 74 a game, they give up 71, and they've really only played two decent teams. So they force turnovers, which I think is going to be very difficult for them to do versus Usan, Cryer, and Sharp. They crash the offensive boards, which we typically prevent. ah They turn the ball over a ton, which is what we excel at forcing. And ah
00:30:08
Speaker
They do get to the free throw line, which plays into what everyone's been saying about the following. This is destined to play out similarly, I think, to Troy's game at Oregon, maybe worse. And I have us winning 79-54. How about you, Tom? Have you got any thoughts from a coach's perspective on the Troy game? Well, what I know about Troy, I just learned from Bill, so.
00:30:35
Speaker
but ah Thanks, Bill. but I will say this is that you know very few D1 college players are intimidated anymore about going on the road. you know they They've grown up playing AAU ball and they've been, they've they've grown up playing against the best. You're a D1 player at Troy, you know, chances are growing up, you play in AAU tournaments with five stars and four stars. So, you know, nobody's intimidated. So they're not going to come in here and just lay down for us. You know, we're going to have to earn the win, but you know, if we do what we're supposed to do, we should win going on away, but you never know. That's why they suit them up and.
00:31:13
Speaker
tip it up and, you know, they give scholarships too. Yeah. This one's going to be a tricky one because if you look from an analytics perspective, they ended last season as a decent team. They were 61st in Ken Palm. And if you look at offense and defense, roughly around the same numbers, right? Numbers 67 in offensive efficiency, 76 in defensive efficiency.
00:31:35
Speaker
Now, fast forward to this year, and after seven games with Butler, their stats are trending higher on both sides. On offense, Butler, at least historically, wasn't great at anything last season, just good at shooting, ranking 107 in an effective field goal percentage.
00:31:52
Speaker
and protecting the ball, number 69 in turnover percentage. Their main weakness on offense was offensive rebound, where they were ranked 271st last season. So it was typically one shot and done every time down the court. But we've got to be really careful because for this season, they are now number 32 in effective field goal percentage and number eight in three point shooting percentage.
00:32:15
Speaker
This will be a good all-around test for our D, especially our three-point percentage D this season, which has been kind of spotty to say the least. So we'll be curious to see the defensive adjustments Coach has made going into this game. On the flip side, Butler's D has been kind of in the same boat as their offense. Good at everything, but really nothing close to our top 40 threshold to be excellent at anything.
00:32:38
Speaker
But again, our team needs to be really careful because they are much better this season, ranking number two now in effective field goal percentage D. being excellent at defending both the two point and three point shooting. A nice saving grace for our team on offense is that this one thing that Butler has been terrible at on D and is still terrible at is forcing turnovers. They're number 250th in turnover percentage G last year, and they're even worse this season. So this will be a tough defensive team we're facing in Butler, but on offense, we'll also get the chance to work on all aspects of our sets and get things right in this next month.
00:33:16
Speaker
And it'll be interesting to see you whether we can better define our identity on offense during this game. Based on the metrics, this is projected to be a 12 point win for the Cougs at home by Ken Palm. I think it's going to be a bigger win as the kids will be focused and coach will likely be introducing some new wrinkles on both sides. I also don't expect to really see a lot of the bench players this game. So I'm projecting a 76, 59, 17 point win.
00:33:43
Speaker
Now for Troy, they were ranked 132 in Ken Palm to end last season. There were 157 on offense, 118 on defense. Not a great shooting team, but they do a nice job, as you had mentioned, Bill, offensive rebounding. And on D, they again, they do a great job in terms of forcing turnovers. They're trending with a similar strength this season so far. so In the end, it's still projected to be a 19-point win for the Cougs. I think we will continue to push the pedal in solidifying our lineups and blast Troy by 30. I'm thinking it's going to be more like 85-55.
00:34:19
Speaker
So now let's get to the key discussion on how we're viewing the team so far after seven games this season.
Team Performance Discussion
00:34:25
Speaker
And so for longtime listeners, they all know that the three of us are all huge fans of coach Samson and the Houston Cougar program that he's built here. Plus we know there's lots of talent on this squad as well, with all three of us predicting a national championship run this season. But for this segment, I've asked all three of us to put an even keeled, but more critical hat on to have a discussion on where we see things with the team at this point in time. And what needs to improve in order for them to reach its ceiling come March? Tom, why don't you kick things off in kind of what's your take on the team at this point? Well, there's almost like ah two trains of thought. You know, there's one whereby what kind of effect is NIL having on individuals, you know, because everybody's different. Some people can get paid a bag of money and and never have a let down.
00:35:20
Speaker
You know, when some people, uh, you know, they kind of get satisfied, they, their needs are met and, and they coast a little bit. We'll never know that about, uh, individual players because we're just not around them. You know, we're not around that practice. We're not around them, uh, how they spend their, their hours outside of basketball. We just don't know. The other train of thought is in Randy from Goku sees one of our posters. He brought up a good point is that.
00:35:49
Speaker
Is this any different, you know, the loss to Alabama, the loss to Auburn, the loss to San Diego state. Is it any different when we won our first conference game last year where we blew out West Virginia, we go on the road, we go to Hill Coliseum and Ames and, you know, we get down 14 nothing. We lose by, I think it was ended up about four, but we were down by two and had a three.
00:36:12
Speaker
with a couple seconds left to win it and missed. And then came back and lost on the road to TCU where he had a whole bunch of silly mental lapses. For example, we gave up two wide open threes to a catch and shoot player who can only catch and shoot. And what do we do? We let him catch and shoot. So Randy pointed out, is this stretch right now any different than the Iowa State?
00:36:35
Speaker
TCU stretched last year. It's just coming earlier in the season. So you know it it's hard to tell. You can't quite put a finger on it. Maybe at the end of the year, you know maybe we make the final four. Auburn makes it. Alabama makes it. San Diego State makes it. we'll you know we'll We just don't know yet. See if you're a numbers guy, numbers don't lie. And you know you can tell by the rebounding. The rebounding numbers aren't aren't where there're yeah they're supposed to be. Especially defensive rebounding.
00:37:03
Speaker
Yeah, and then the lack of not being able to finish games off on both ends, on the offensive end and the defensive end. I already pointed out in the podcast earlier some mistakes, some lapses we made. Bobby Knight once said, you know victory favors the team that makes the least mistakes. It's just, I don't know, we'll ah we'll have to see and let the season play out. We still have December, we have January, February, and a little bit of March to to see where this all goes.
00:37:32
Speaker
Yeah. How about you, Bill? What are some of your initial thoughts on how the team's been performing so far? Well, Tom, I guess I would somewhat disagree if the thought is that this could be similar to going to Iowa State and going to TCU only because we didn't have a brand new point guard last year. And and I think right now with shed gone,
00:38:00
Speaker
I think the roles aren't quite defined as of yet. I think players are still trying to, and coaches, are trying to figure out who's going to do what, who's going to guard whom, who's going to have the ball in their hands late, especially when Yuzan fouls out. But I think they're still trying to get a ah ah real handle on the player roles and you know who's going to step up, who's going to just do different things and in different circumstances. yeah Again, Yuuzhan, I think he's he's really solid and I'm positive that he's going to get better. But as I stressed and Steve, you and I have debated a little bit in our U of H preview, nobody is Jamal Shedd and it's going to take
00:38:52
Speaker
a long time uh and maybe it doesn't happen at all and and it it it almost assuredly won't the shed can be replicated uh he's just he's generational he was a leader that and sorry to to come at you again steve but but he he can't be he can't be he he can't be measured by bart torvick statistics and i know you said the team is deeper this year and was going to be better with possibly without him but it it's just right now, everyone's got to figure out their roles and it's and not having him. he He was as much of a leader off the court. And and I can mention examples to you that that will show that without him here. and i And I don't want to overemphasize him because he's gone and and and he's not going to be, he's not coming back. Obviously he's not playing, but you thought that
00:39:49
Speaker
You know bringing in uzan and and and having a little more depth or having more depth You thought this was the the best team that we'd ever had and ah you know, i'm Still not sure that it's that it's a better team than than last year's team if shed doesn't get hurt against duke We're in the championship game. I i'm fully convinced of that. We he came out. He he shut down their lottery pick McCain. he He intimidated the hell out of him. He took over the game before he got hurt. The only reason Duke was even close to us was because ah Philipowski hit hit two 30-foot bomb three-pointers at the end of the shot clock. i mean
00:40:30
Speaker
this is different and the point guard is so important and just plays such a strong dominant role in Kelvin's system that and it's and it's almost a little unfair to compare use on it's completely unfair. You shouldn't even be doing it.
00:40:48
Speaker
You shouldn't even be doing it. But then why would you say that we're a better team without Chet? No, but but you either you canno't count on one and you can't do You're contradicting yourself. You can't do one-on-one comparisons. You need to look at the whole team as a whole, and everyone else needs to step up, just like every other year, like when Sasser left or when, you know, Gero left. You can't just keep doing a one-on-one comparison. Everyone else needs to step up, right? And if you've got... Yeah, that's absolutely right. on if If you've got four starters back plus five of the top eight players back from the previous team, your whole argument around not understanding roles is ludicrous. Are you kidding me? People know their roles. Yes, you have to adjust to a new point guard, but there are no role adjustments. You've absolutely got got to adjust. You've absolutely got to adjust to new roles.
00:41:39
Speaker
how often How often was Cryer playing point guard last year? Cryer was the primary backup last year for point guard. Who else played? Malik? Malik, maybe from the early part of the season. He was not the backup point guard later this season. Look at the number of minutes that Shedd played last year. Don't don't tell him that Cryer is playing. That's being on the court issue with Uzan and his foul trouble, right? It's not an issue.
00:42:05
Speaker
in terms of knowing roles come on yeah it absolutely is it absolutely is how many games how many games down the stretch did did shed take over and and drive get to the hoop especially in games where the where the offense wasn't playing well that so far we don't have anyone that's that's and That's just got that mindset and that's built that way i think you're you're way underestimating. How valuable he was to this team no no i'm under outating like or i don't agree with you continues comparing one player to another player right you can't just do a one on one comparison to the greatest point guard that we've ever had.
00:42:47
Speaker
No one will ever measure up, then we might as well pack in the season, right? When you look at the team holistically. No, i I said that I think U of H is going to win it all this year. And I and i still absolutely stand behind that. And I think it's going to take some time. I think there are things that need to be figured out. And and right now,
00:43:08
Speaker
Right now we're not there yet. We're but I do think we're damn close I think we're a lot closer than people think that we we easily could have won the Auburn game We easily could have won the Alabama game.
Identifying a Team Leader
00:43:20
Speaker
We easily could have won the San Diego State game We're a lot closer than than everyone thinks there there are some issues going on that the rebounding is certainly one of them but but Against some of the better teams. They're gonna be They're going to be players or at least one player that needs to step up and and Calvin's even addressed that and said that that he's got to find someone now that's going to be that guy down the stretch.
00:43:48
Speaker
I mean, if you're... yeah So rather than compare two specific players, what does the team need to do? That's the whole point of this discussion, right? what What does the team need to do to adjust to get to that point and reach its potential? What's your perspective on that? Well, one, they they obviously need to be on the floor. Yeah. It's major, though. The guy, right? The point guard needs to be on the floor. He needs to stomp out, right? Yeah.
00:44:17
Speaker
They've got to be more aggressive with the ball. I think someone's got someone's gotta to determine when a shot needs to be taken, I'm the one that's going to be taking it and be more aggressive, whether that's putting the ball on the floor and pulling up and hitting the shot or or taking the shot and they don't all go in, but or or or getting as deep to the basket as possible.
00:44:41
Speaker
and And I absolutely think the leading candidate to do that, even though Cryer had had the ah the really good game or the high scoring game anyway against Alabama, I think it's sharp that's ah in my mind is the absolute leading candidate to do that. And I still think that that we're going to get there. I do agree with the depth on the team. I agree with everything, but right now we're not where we were last year overall.
00:45:11
Speaker
And in a number of areas but I absolutely believe and and I know I'm right that losing shed is is just.
00:45:22
Speaker
beyond enormous and and everybody has to step up. I mean, if you watched Shed last year, he he was so good at getting crier the ball where Cryer wanted it to to get off shots. I mean, that's just, that's not to say that Uzan can't do that, but but I mean, it's it's just going to take some time. yeah Sharp defensively was,
00:45:47
Speaker
was, I mean, he was that he was the defensive player of the year. He shut down other teams point guards. They're just, they're sharp. you You said sharp shed. You meant right. i'm Sorry. Not sharp shed. Yeah. I'm sorry. ah Again, I don't think The players' roles are are fully defined, not not necessarily by the coaching staff, but but in their own minds in terms of what what they're going to do when certain scenarios present themselves or when when something's needed. and ah and Again, I'm not saying that that we're not going to get to that point. I still think we're going to win it all. ah and I think it's going to be an extraordinarily successful year.
00:46:30
Speaker
but We're not there at the moment in different areas to make up for his loss. yeah ah The rebound. I was going to say, I mean, I think you're right yeah in terms of being to identify that that alpha, right? That's going to take over when crunch time comes in. And you've highlighted Sharp, I think, is the the best candidate. How about you, Tom? I mean, what are your thoughts in terms of that alpha? Because, yeah, Coach Sampson has brought that up as well. Who's who's going to be the guy, right?
00:46:59
Speaker
I don't think in our top seven right now, we we have an alpha. you know It's hard for Milos to come in as a first year guy and you know just come in and and be the leader of the team. So he's out. Joanna, just think about his play this year to be a leader. You got you got to back it up. So LJ is pretty quiet guy. Terence, same. ah So probably probably has to fall on sharp. He has a knack for hitting.
00:47:29
Speaker
Uh, key threes, when the other teams are making a run, it might be just a situation where our guys are just really nice human beings. And, you know, every, uh, every leader has a little turd in them. Yeah. Kelvin mentions when he was recruiting Jamal and he called him quote unquote a turd. You can't be afraid of, uh, hurting other people's feelings. And, uh, just don't know if we, we, we have that.
00:48:00
Speaker
we have that guy yeah this year yeah okay i mean next year next year willll be totally different but we're we're talking about this year yeah so i still think it's it's it's it's sharp he's taken sharp as well now vocal than the rest of the guys him and him and jowa john at it quite a bit on that things yeah yeah it's ah you know Some teams are like that um teams just don't have that taken by the throat and step on the grandma's face and i wouldn't do that. Okay. I mean, Bill, go ahead. Watch it continue. Oh, I was going to say, was it just to counter shed being a turd. He was the one who, after the the garbage loss at Alabama, cleaned up the garbage. Yeah. So Kelvin, Kelvin did at one of his, I went to one of his radio shows last year and.
00:48:53
Speaker
And, uh, he, he, he said that he said that was when I was recruiting Jamal and we first got here. Yeah. He was, uh, he was a little turd. Yeah. Okay. And I've heard that yeah affectionately, you know, and, and, and to be a leader, I mean, you're you're not a Tom Brady, a Peyton Manning and Michael Jordan and Larry bird. We're not giving out a humanitarian awards. We're, yeah you know, you want, you want your players to be good people, you know, on and off the court. But when you start competing, you know, there's throw off your gloves as bare knuckles and.
00:49:23
Speaker
Yeah, you gotta to have somebody take the bull by the horns and right now I don't see that with our team so yeah it'll be interesting see when as the season progresses what if there's a ah Natural leader or that you know and that emerges Yeah, I mean someone that's that's got the gravitas to be able to keep all the rest of the team accountable Right for all their assignments. Sorry bill. So did you have anything else you wanted to ah cover off?
00:49:47
Speaker
The only other thing I was going to say, and and this is what's key for for everyone that that's absolutely convinced that the world's coming to an end. The sky is falling because we've lost three games and we're ranked number 17, which hasn't occurred in a while. ah What they need to understand is that, number one, these losses occurred in November and we're working in a new point guard as we've thoroughly discussed. It's not March. Things are going to improve. We've got the coach and the coaching staff to ensure that that happens. And and it takes time to adjust.
00:50:26
Speaker
you know show some patience. Also, for those who think we're done, Duke's lost twice, Bama's lost twice, Carolina's lost three times, and Mighty Yukon, who that that clown on Kug Nation, who I got into it with, thinks that we'll never be as good as with Calvin at the helm, they also have three losses and and lost them all in one tournament, and they're ranked number 25 right now.
00:50:53
Speaker
last year Bama made the final four with 12 losses, five of which were non-conference losses. So we're going to be just fine. And I'm fully convinced that We're still going to be hoisting the trophy and cutting down the nets at the end of the year. Yeah. I mean, it's interesting watching every game. It just felt like we've been off a little bit this season. Couldn't put my finger on it, but with so many returning players, as I highlighted earlier, I thought it was going to be like the past two seasons with things jelling, uh, maybe a bit more quickly. And I just haven't felt that yet.
00:51:30
Speaker
And when you look at the analytics, we're actually not bad overall, only a bit off from previous seasons, still number three overall and adjusted defensive efficiency, though that does still include some historical data from the the previous seasons.
00:51:46
Speaker
But if you look only at this season's numbers, we're still what, number 29 in effective field goal percentage D, number 23 in turnover percentage D, number 23 in two-point percentage D, number seven in block percentage, number 30 in steel percentage. So all those are still within our top 40 threshold for being excellent.
00:52:07
Speaker
On offense, it's basically the same
Analytics Evaluation
00:52:09
Speaker
story. We're number 14th in turnover percentage, so we still protect the ball. We're number 36 in offensive rebounding, which is off from where we've been at, but still pretty good. And if you look at the actual offensive rebounded percentage rate. It's roughly the same as what it was last year. And I think is as the numbers start normalizing, our ranking will go up even if we keep up this pace. And we've actually upped our three point shooting to number five in the country. Now, overall, we're still not a great shooting team, but a bit
00:52:44
Speaker
better overall so far at number 145 in Ken Palm. But when you look at it more closely, we're just a tiny bit off in our stats on both sides. And then the one glaring thing from an analytics perspective is that it's been our worst two point shooting.
00:53:00
Speaker
for Coach Sampson. Granted, it's only seven games, but at a putrid 45.6% for two-point shooting, that that's the worst, including our very first year with Coach Sampson when we were 13 and 19. And it places us at number 303rd in the country at this point in time. Really, really bad.
00:53:22
Speaker
And even if we're still offensive rebounding at our usual clip, if we're missing more easy two point shots during the games, it just can end up being the difference in tight games versus great teams. Now, the other thing, too, that though our overall numbers for the season are still pretty good overall, if you start looking at the game specifically, we see large swings in numbers to get to those averages. So basically what I'm saying is we're inconsistent And it's not as simple as saying, Oh yeah, we're just feasting on the bad teams and struggling with the great teams. And I'll just use two examples, blocks and steals are prime examples of where we can go from, you know, five steals, three blocks versus Auburn to 10 steals and 10 blocks versus Alabama to up one steal and two blocks versus San Diego state. And so these are, you know, some of the best teams that we played, right? The three losses and even our numbers there can be.
00:54:18
Speaker
dramatically different. And so yeah I don't think we've been used to seeing the inconsistencies in performance from game to game. We've been kind of our hallmark has been consistency, right, in terms of effort and especially defensive effort.
00:54:33
Speaker
game in and game out. Now, that being said, I have full faith that Coach Sampson is going to be able to you know get the kids in the right direction and and position the team to up the stats as the season goes on. But it as we kind of talked about a little bit earlier on, yeah how about that alpha?
00:54:49
Speaker
and Coach Sampson has mentioned as well, where we've had folks like Shedd, Sasser, Gero, Grimes, and kind of the combo of Davis and and Robinson before that. And if you look at player specific metrics, based on player box score plus minus, where again, I'll disagree with you, Bill, it does show you how great players impact winning. And that's why Shedd definitely had, you know, stellar, stellar numbers before where he was like a plus 12,
00:55:19
Speaker
I don't know, 12.6 or something like that last last year, or maybe 11.6 last year. And the question is, who steps up this year? And so far, again, it's only, you know, seven games at this point, but Sharp has been that guy. I mean, he's he's a plus 12.3. I mean, that's like Sasser type numbers during his all American year. And then if you look at the the other You know, team members, Tucker and Terrence have up their numbers in a big way as well to plus 9.4 and plus 8.9. So what's, what's the matter this season? You know, why are we having issues? And it's not Milos either. He's actually at a plus 7.4 after, you know, seven games as well.
00:56:00
Speaker
So you start looking at the guys that we've been counting on to be leaders this season, right the seniors. And you're talking about Francis, Cryer. Now granted, Francis is a bit injured, Cryer. They're only down a little bit, not very much. So they're still they're still right there. But guys, the biggest gap from last season has been Roberts' performance thus far.
00:56:22
Speaker
I mean, he's the guy that actually a lot of us have references maybe being the leader, right? The captain, right? The dog that's going to lead the way, especially keeping everyone honest. And quite honestly, last year he was a stellar plus 10.6, right? After Shedd, he was the guy you know on the team. And this season, he's down to a plus 2.8. I mean, that's a huge gap. yeah and There's so many players on the team that are affecting winning much more than Roberts, and we can't have that. He's one of our main guys.
00:56:55
Speaker
on defense. And so, I don't know. We also even reference, right? Maybe the the toughest team we played, Bama, he had one rebound in 38 minutes, right? For his role in his position, that that can't happen, right? And so what do we do going forward? it It'll be interesting to see what Coach Sampson does, but I think we got to play and focus on the guys that have been delivering. And so that does mean, right, Sharp, I think I posted on gokugs.com, where I was thinking maybe Tuggler, right? Tuggler, if his Achilles is healed well enough during conference season, he's been automatic with post-ups, right? Kind of that Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant post-up down low, the smaller guards. But the uncertainty is really around whether his Achilles will heal well enough or if he can hold up. But I think I'm in agreement after looking at the numbers for this episode with both you, Bill and Tom,
00:57:53
Speaker
And we got to get we got to get sharp going. And that means more clear outs for him. Because he was very effective driving the basket last year like with clear outs. He's you strong. He's physical. He can do that. And just letting more of those set plays for him, that'll open it up for crier. It'll open it up for himself on the perimeter, quite honestly. And I think When we talk about missing the defense with shed, I'd say our best perimeter defender is sharp this year. That's that's my perspective. I haven't checked the numbers on that. But um I think in order to keep us on on, we may need to make some drastic changes in terms of saying, you know, from the get go sharp, sharp checks the point guard every time.
00:58:38
Speaker
And, you know, Cryer checks the shooting guard and we have Uzzan basically checking the third wing down on the baseline where it's easier to contain, to keep them out of foul trouble. And I think those are the types of moves that I'm curious to see whether Coach Sampson makes.
00:58:54
Speaker
and don't discount criers defense he's i think he's i think he's played exceptionally good he's agreed plays and he not only plays hard on the defensive end but he knows where to be he knows how to defend he he plays smart he plays smart defense and he's playing really well yeah no completely agree i know we're running uh pretty late. But you know before we sign off, I wanted to leave on a positive note and kind of celebrate the incredible early signing class, Coach Sampson, Hizzinked, with Sienak, Flemings, Harwell, and Jackson, a composite number two class in the country and the best class ever since we've started tracking this kind of stuff with the various recruiting sites.
Future Recruitment Impact
00:59:40
Speaker
And so
00:59:41
Speaker
you know This season, I think we're all in agreement. Things are going to turn around. We still all believe we're going to be national championship contenders. And boy, the class that's been signed, can you imagine a Coach Sampson team of blue chips? He's never had that, certainly not here. right And to be able to mold prime time talent moving forward, that's going to be crazy scary for the rest of the country. right Hey steve what one last thing and. By the way i still i love the recruiting class but god i love the fact that we're bringing in flamings. But what i was gonna say was i can't wait to continue our.
01:00:22
Speaker
debate when you fly in this weekend and we're sitting together at the game, I'll ah i'll make sure to ah to to properly educate you so that so so they you're you're more often following my lead in an agreement with everything I tell you going forward. Okay, looking forward to it.
Episode Conclusion
01:00:42
Speaker
OK, guys, so that's it for our third or fourth episode of the No Conference for Old Men podcast. Hope you all enjoyed it. And again, would really appreciate it if folks would follow, subscribe, or collect our podcast, depending on your podcast platform of choice. We are also available via the Republican Football Podcast feed from the folks at Dave Campbell's Texas Football. It is the only basketball-centric podcast. We're at Goku's dot.com for those that prefer to digest the content that way. We appreciate the Continued support from all and please give us a follow on our Twitter account no conference for old men Thank you all again for listening and be on the lookout next week to download and listen as our next episode drops. Take care everyone