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Episode 121 - Is your business model dying?
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Episode 121 - is your business model dying?
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Transcript
Introduction to AI in Recruitment
00:00:10
Speaker
Have you checked out Bullhorn Amplify? It's the AI game changer for recruitment teams. Amplify delivers 17% faster submit times, 22% higher fill rates, 49% better candidate matches.
00:00:23
Speaker
If you want to boost your productivity, visit bullhorn.com to find out more about Amplify.
Persol Kelly's Rebranding Announcement
00:00:30
Speaker
This is the news for the 5th of August, 2025. I'm Adele Last.
00:00:35
Speaker
Last Thursday, Kurt Gillum, Executive General Manager ANZ for Persol Kelly, announced on LinkedIn the company's trading name had been officially changed to Persol. Publicly listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, Persol is one of the largest players in the ANZ market, courtesy of its acquisition of the skilled, programmed and Kelly services brands.
00:00:58
Speaker
In the most recent financial data released for the 2024 financial year, The Persol APAC region reported a profit of AU$122 million australian dollars on sales of just over AU$5 billion.
00:01:11
Speaker
ANZ sales figures were not broken out separately, although the commentary accompanying the results noted double-digit growth in the programmed facility management business. Previously released results showed ANZ contributed around three-quarters of the Persol APAC revenue.
Robert Walters' Financial Decline
00:01:29
Speaker
Robert Walters reported revenue for the six months ended 30 June 2025 of £403 million, pounds down 10% in constant currency compared to the previous year.
00:01:40
Speaker
Group net fee income was down 14% in constant currency to £140 million, operating £7.8 million. with an operating loss of seven point eight million pounds In the APAC region, the company's largest region by sales, recruitment net fee income was down 9%, with perm fees down 12% and temp down 6%.
00:02:00
Speaker
Net fee income in APAC recruitment outsourcing was down 34%, driven by the non-renewal of a client account.
LinkedIn Growth Amid Hiring Slowdown
00:02:09
Speaker
Robert Walter's shares on the London Stock Exchange are currently trading at 60% lower than their 52-week
00:02:18
Speaker
Fourth quarter revenue, a talent platform Airtasker increased by 20.6% year-on-year to $13.4 million. dollars On a full-year basis, overall group revenue grew 13% to $52.7 million. dollars Group EBITDA was a loss of $7.2 million dollars due to substantial investments made in the company's fledgling US and UK markets.
00:02:44
Speaker
Despite slower hiring, LinkedIn revenue rose 8% year over year in constant currency to $4.62 billion dollars in its fiscal fourth quarter, ended June 30.
00:02:55
Speaker
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said in a call with analysts that LinkedIn has 1.2 billion members and has seen four consecutive years of double-digit member growth.
00:03:05
Speaker
In addition, comments on LinkedIn rose more than 30% and video uploads increased by 20% this year. Full-year revenue for LinkedIn was $17.8 billion, dollars up 9% year-on-year.
Australian Non-compete Clause Reforms
00:03:20
Speaker
The Federal Government last week released a consultation paper to gain feedback from workers, businesses and the broader community on its plan to ban non-compete clauses to boost productivity and wages.
00:03:33
Speaker
It's seeking views on whether further changes are required to other worker restraints and what these changes could look like. It also wants opinions on commentary reforms, complementary reforms to close loopholes in Australia's competition laws, which the government said allow employers to make agreements that can cap wages or block staff from being hired by competitors.
00:03:54
Speaker
This important step is just one part of the government's broad and ambitious competition agenda, including progressing a national licensing scheme for electrical tradespeople, the government said in a statement.
00:04:06
Speaker
The feedback we receive from this consultation will be used to inform legislation for these important reforms, the government added. Workers should not be handcuffed to their current job when there are better opportunities available for them and that's what these reforms address, the government said.
00:04:20
Speaker
Previous research estimates that banning non-compete clauses could lift wages by up to 4% and add $5 billion dollars in annual GDP. Submissions can be made online on the Treasury Consultation Hub until September 5.
Fair Work Commission's Pay Proposal
00:04:35
Speaker
The Fair Work Commission has found that award pay rates in five industrial awards covering a range of female-dominated occupations and industries do not provide equal pay. The Commission has proposed significant increases to award pay rates covering thousands of workers, including pharmacists, early childhood education and care workers, psychologists, physiotherapists and some other health workers.
00:04:58
Speaker
The Fair Work Commission's review of the five priority awards covering various healthcare, social support and pharmacy awards was undertaken following the Labor government's changes to the Fair Work Act in 2022.
00:05:11
Speaker
The changes require the Commission to take account of the need to achieve gender equality in setting modern award rates of pay. The Commission concluded that many pay rates in these five modern awards do not reflect the value of the work undertaken in these female dominated occupations.
00:05:26
Speaker
The Commission found pay rates in these awards are not equal to pay rates for comparable work due to the work primarily being done by women. The Commission's decision that a total increase of 14% in award rates for pharmacists is justified will take effect in three phases starting next month.
00:05:45
Speaker
The Commission's decisions on pay increases for workers covered by the other four awards, including proposed increases, of 23% for Cert III qualified childcare workers, have been put forward as provisional views only, with further consultation being sought before a final decision is made.
CEO Turnover and Gender Representation
00:06:03
Speaker
CEO turnover across the world is at a strategic pause, as the number of incoming CEOs reached an eight-year low in the first half of 2025, according to global search firm Russell Reynolds Associates.
00:06:17
Speaker
RRA's Global CEO Turnover Index revealed a 6% decline in new CEOs in the first half of the year compared to the first six months of 2024. This is the lowest rate recorded since the first half of 2018.
00:06:33
Speaker
Internally promoted CEOs made up 76% of the total, highlighting a continued focus on developing internal leadership pipelines. Women CEO appointments were also steady as they accounted for 9% of all incoming CEO appointments in the first half of 2025 unchanged from the same period last year.
00:06:51
Speaker
Meanwhile, CEO tenure hit a record low of 6.8 years in the first half of 2025 according to the report. This is a decline from 7.7 years in the first half of 2024 and a drop from the record high of 9.2 years in the first half of 2023.
Trump's Controversial BLS Removal
00:07:09
Speaker
US President Donald Trump has removed the head of the federal agency that produces the monthly jobs figures after the latest data release showed hiring slowed in July and was much weaker in May and June than previously reported.
00:07:24
Speaker
Trump, in a post on his social media platform, alleged the figures were manipulated for political reasons and said that the director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, appointed by former President Joe Biden and supported by a large majority of Republican members of Congress, would be fired.
00:07:40
Speaker
He provided no evidence for the charge. Last Friday's jobs report showed that just 73,000 jobs were added in July and the 258,000 fewer jobs were created in May and June than previously estimated.
00:07:56
Speaker
The weak jobs report, combined with Trump's latest tariff announcement on Friday, caused US stocks to slump.
Millennials vs Gen Z: Job Priorities
00:08:04
Speaker
Millennials are more likely than members of Gen Z to pass on a job offer if a company's ethics or sustainability practices conflict with their values.
00:08:13
Speaker
according to new data from the Graduate Management Admission Council. The study found that 27% of millennial prospective students say that an employer's ethical and sustainability practices would impact their decision to take up a job.
00:08:27
Speaker
That number compares to just 19% of Gen Z candidates indicating a decline in interest in corporate social causes among young people. The primary motivation for business school students pursuing management education degrees remains a salary increase, according to the study.
00:08:43
Speaker
However, achieving a more senior role and geographic mobility also play a role in students' decisions. The study also found that the most desirable industries among prospective business students are consulting, financial services and technology.
00:08:58
Speaker
The Graduate Management Admission Council is an international not-for-profit organisation comprising over 200 business schools worldwide, which compiles research and market insights on institutes and graduate management education for students.
00:09:12
Speaker
This year's survey, which was the Council's 15th, analysed responses from 4,912 students across 147 countries, providing a global perspective on candidate decision-making choices.
Bullhorn's Strategic Acquisition
00:09:25
Speaker
Bullhorn has acquired Target Recruit, a US-based provider of front and middle office software for staffing firms, saying the deal will deepen its strategic investment in supporting firms that run Salesforce.
00:09:38
Speaker
Target Recruit's products are built on the Salesforce platform. With the acquisition, Bullhorn will expand its Salesforce footprint and see its Salesforce user base grow to nearly 150,000. Bullhorn said the acquisition also bolsters its presence in the healthcare staffing market.
00:09:55
Speaker
The deal closed on July 31. Terms of the transaction were not announced. Prominent Australian users of Target Recruit include medical recruiter Wavelength International and blue-collar recruiter NW People.
00:10:10
Speaker
And that's the news for the 5th of August 2025. I'm Ross Clennett. Stay tuned for Question of the Week.
Future of Executive Search
00:10:20
Speaker
um
00:10:29
Speaker
Question of the Week. Is your business model dying? So I suspect this is prompted by one of Greg Savage's slides I pointed out to you at the AppsGo Emerge event earlier this month. Would that be right, Adele?
00:10:45
Speaker
Yeah, that's correct, Russ. You pointed out this slide where Greg was making a couple of predictions about sectors or models in the industry rather around, he called them sectors, whether they would thrive, grow or decline.
00:11:00
Speaker
Okay. Well, what did he say? let's ah Let's get it out on the table.
AI's Impact on Executive Search
00:11:05
Speaker
So the executive search sector, he said, is going to thrive. His reasons were that he said it was niche. It's based on um building confidentiality, insights. You've got an influence with can and candidate reach.
00:11:20
Speaker
Okay. um Well, I broadly agree. ah broadly agree. What do you think? Yeah, look, I think executive search always seems to be the area that's reasonably safe because you have those very strong and deep relationships with people. But I think we need to dissect this and and put a bit of an AI filter over it because it may not be as safe as it looks.
00:11:47
Speaker
Okay. All right. Well, so I'll start with um the positive So I think in in terms of why I think Greg's right, there's also a reason why he may not be quite as right.
00:12:01
Speaker
But I would start by saying that the people who engage executive search firms are typically ah the board chair or the CEO or a GM.
00:12:14
Speaker
And frankly, old habits die hard. People in those positions have almost always got their job because of an executive search firm.
00:12:26
Speaker
And they want to stay in the good books of those executive search firms because who knows when they might need another job. right And so it's very self-interest oriented.
00:12:40
Speaker
So the old boys club. Well, it but it is and it's mostly men, not not all men. yes But it's the kind of um you scratch my back, I'll scratch yours type of thing.
00:12:52
Speaker
And I think that's very powerful. And yes, AI could do... a good or better job at identifying the right
Growth in Temporary Recruitment
00:13:02
Speaker
people. But I just think that whole self-interest thing is going to continue to have executive search thrive in pretty much the way it's thriving at the moment.
00:13:13
Speaker
Well, I see any parts of the market that are complacent, that are, you know, this is how we've always done it, ripe for the picking for AI disruption. Like think that's the part of the market that we're going to see great changes in because people don't think it's going to happen.
00:13:32
Speaker
That's exactly where it will happen. Okay. So what what am I missing here, Adele? so candidates, I think in that space want more. Yes, there is that bit of kind of networking and who you know, and the mate, you know the old boys club, as we mentioned, but ah they want to find the right move for them. They want to be able to um take control, I suppose, of the process themselves. These are you know, often A-type personalities, you know, they they don't wait around being to be tapped on the shoulder by a recruiter.
00:13:59
Speaker
So when you're talking about AI agents in the market where recruiters are using AI agents to help them um find clients or find candidates, why could candidates themselves not employ AI agents or engage with AI agents to help them find their next job before make an introduction for them?
00:14:20
Speaker
I think that executive recruiters should be, you know, being a little nervous, looking around, seeing what's going on. Well, okay, so I accept that. And certainly when I think about a friend of mine who was recently out of work and he's CEO level and he's, I don't know exactly what he was earning, but I'd say north of $400,000.
00:14:40
Speaker
ah something in the 400 to 600 range. And no executive recruiter would meet him unless they had a vacancy that they thought he might be remotely suitable for. they They just don't do general meet and greets and coffees.
00:14:53
Speaker
And so there's a lot of candidates who are... searching for the same sorts of jobs and they're very frustrated that they can't get in front of an executive recruiter. And so therefore, ai agents may do ah much better job at sussing out an opportunity, I suppose, what then might be the problem is because it's just one candidate, the person, let's say the GM or the CEO, who's got to make the decision, are they really going to be willing to hire that person? Even though that person might look great, it's like they're still too scared unless they've seen six candidates or eight candidates. And how they going to do that?
00:15:33
Speaker
Well, probably via an exec search firm. Okay. We'll park that one. I think it's less sure than than certainly Greg's predicting. He said that will thrive. I think that sector has a bit of a question mark.
00:15:45
Speaker
I'm going to move to the next one on the slide, which was temp and contract. Greg says that area is going to grow. He says that's because there's flexibility, it's project work-based, um definitely able to use AI for matching ah in that space and skilled recruiters um will be able to manage the outcomes in their niche.
00:16:06
Speaker
Well, I certainly think it's true. One of the major reasons I think what Greg's predicting there is true is that so many CEOs are and boards are terrified that they're not cutting heads fast enough or they're not taking enough advantage of Gen. AI, that when they look at hiring new human beings, they're thinking, well, I don't want to be saddled with permanent costs. In other words, someone, if that job proves to be one that we're going to make redundant in nine 12 or 15 months,
00:16:33
Speaker
I don't want to deal with the redundancy costs. So therefore, the default is let's look at a contractor. Let's let's look at a temp. So I think that is a very, so I think a very strong reason that contracts, particularly at the more senior end of the market, will probably grow faster than any other part of the contract market.
Debate on Contingent Permanent Space
00:16:56
Speaker
Yeah, I agree with this one. I think it's just the convenience factor of temp and contract work will always keep it sustainable. It means it it can't – there's no other solution for that. So, i think um mike Greg will be closer to to being correct on that one, that it'll certainly grow, at least stay the same, if not grow.
00:17:13
Speaker
the film also think – sorry, just just one other the thing that's popped into my head is that I also think that candidates – will be able to using ai AI agents be able to suss out better opportunities faster and they're likely to then be more confident to move more frequently big because they're using the tech to unearth vacancies that when they're actively looking, they might find them. But if if an AI agent sort of looking in the background, the candidate may be broadly happy
00:17:49
Speaker
but something gets presented and they're like, oh, that looks like a really good opportunity. So I suspect for the top 20 to 25% of the candidate pool, they're probably going to have more jobs with a shorter tenure because they're able to find these opportunities and command a premium because of their skill set.
00:18:11
Speaker
And that may fuel temp and contract as well. Okay, that's a good point. The final sector that Greg mentions on the slide is the multi-listed contingent perm space.
00:18:23
Speaker
Now, this is controversial. He says that's going to decline. And I'm saying controversial because I think that's ah obviously a big part of our industry, big portion of our industry is working in that space.
00:18:36
Speaker
um But he says it's transactional. There's not much value. um There's unsustainable cost space there. It's quite general. It's low skilled, low low chance of filling, low fillability. So he's predicting that's going to decline.
00:18:50
Speaker
um What do we think about that?
00:18:53
Speaker
Well, that prediction has been around in one form or another for quite a while, hasn't it? Yeah, I think for the whole time I've been in recruitment, I've been hearing that that was the case, that, you know, that's going to be a dying area.
00:19:08
Speaker
You know, certainly through COVID when times were tough, a lot of recruitment agencies moved away from it. And I know some haven't gone back. but vast majority have gone back to working in a contingent fashion with clients.
00:19:19
Speaker
I think it's been said for a long time and it hasn't gone anywhere. Well, I've got one part of the market where I think Greg's right and one part of the market where he may not be right.
00:19:32
Speaker
So the part of the market that I think he's probably going to be right in is those contingent recruiters that service the top end of town. Those companies, let's call them the ASX top 200 and other big private companies or subsidiaries of overseas, um big overseas corporations.
00:19:55
Speaker
I suspect there the investment in rec tech will be undertaken, which will to a large degree supersede the contingent recruitment agencies they're using on some big PSA at the moment.
00:20:13
Speaker
So I think that is probably going to be true. Not wipe them out altogether, but I'm going to say, reckon by 2035, gee, at least of that market is gone.
00:20:27
Speaker
Now, where I think Greg may not be right is you look at the largest employing part of the workforce, and that's the SME sector. Now, the SME sector, so we're talking, let's say, people but ah companies or businesses up to maybe 40, maybe 50 staff.
00:20:43
Speaker
Typically, they don't have a senior HR person, or they certainly don't have an internal recruitment person. The hiring managers in those sorts of roles are so flat out doing their jobs.
00:20:54
Speaker
They don't really want to put an ad on a job board, although they might be if they're forced to from a cost point of view. It's just way easier to give a job in competition to a range of recruiters and see who comes up with the best candidate.
00:21:08
Speaker
And I don't think those hiring managers are going to be so focused on how Gen.ai can help them in their own hiring. Maybe 15% of them will. But I reckon 85% of them won't and they're just going to default to ah multi-listed recruiter.
00:21:24
Speaker
Yeah, and I think the other thing to point out with this is it it often starts as multi-listed contingent opportunity for for a recruiter who then, if they're clever enough, will convert that into an exclusive deal the next time or build the relationship such that um it stops being multi-listed. So it's ah it's a way to to you know keep momentum going, start a business potentially,
00:21:46
Speaker
You know, get into ah get in the door of a client that you couldn't normally get into because you're saying, oh, list it with me and everyone else. That's fine. I'll have a look. And then you make your way, you make your strategy into a more exclusive arrangement. Sure. Yeah. I mean, i I absolutely accept that. Start multi-listed contingent. And at least even if you can't get the client to retainer, that they're happy to give you the work exclusively because you've proven that you can deliver the candidates
Conclusion and Audience Engagement
00:22:09
Speaker
that they want. Yes, absolutely.
00:22:11
Speaker
Okay. So there's our contradiction predictions to Greg's predictions. um It's all speculation, of course. We love to have these these discussions. Thank you, Greg, um for sharing your predictions.
00:22:23
Speaker
If anyone wants to have ah a look at that slide, I have a copy. I'm sure Greg would be able to provide that as well. um Yeah, tell us what you think, whether you agree or disagree. And let's revisit this in five years' time, Adele, and see how accurate or not we were.