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Houston Cougars '24-'25 Preview - the Road to San Antonio
93 Plays1 year ago
Welcome to our Season 2 kick-off & Episode #30 of the No Conference for Old Men Podcast.
The 3 Old Men had the opportunity to sit down w/ fellow GoCoogs.com contributor, Jayme Hollingsworth, to preview the Houston Cougars Men's Basketball team heading into the '24-'25 season. Our Cougars are "running it back" with 4 returning starters, their 2 top starter-quality reserves, & key Transfer Portal addition Milos Uzan to make what could be a historic run for the program's 1st National Championship in San Antonio!
Please have a listen as we provide detailed breakdowns of the team in advance of the season opener this coming Monday. The team is LOADED & fans can be prepared for a fun & exciting journey towards March Madness!
- No Conference for Old Men is available for free via Spotify / Apple Podcast / SoundCloud & the GoCoogs.com website; we're also available via the Republic of Football Podcast feed from the folks at Dave Campbell's Texas Football as their only basketball-centric offering
- Intro / Exit music: Ground Zero provided by FreeBeats.io
- Please follow us on https://gocoogs.com/old-men/
Recommended
Transcript
Introduction to the Podcast
00:00:07
Speaker
folks, to the first episode of season number two of the No Conference for Old Men podcast. Podcasts where three old guys are talking Houston Cougars basketball with a bit of Big 12 coverage added in as well. And proud members of the Goku's.com network, the undisputed number one Houston Cougars content provider.
Origin & Appreciation
00:00:25
Speaker
Guys, if you can believe it, we've made it to season two in episode number 30 for this labor of love we call the No Conference for Old Men podcast.
00:00:36
Speaker
Unbelievable. We've certainly come a long way and appreciate the loyal fan support we've received along the way since we formed this venture after our Cougs joined the number one basketball conference in the nation, which obviously spurred the name of our podcast. For the new fans listening in this season, why don't we kick things off with a quick reintroduction to the three old men hosting this thing.
00:00:57
Speaker
Tom, you want to do a quick intro? Sure.
Hosts' Backgrounds
00:01:00
Speaker
My name is Tom Lydiak. I'm a Houston native. I'm a proud alum of North Shore High School and also University of Houston. I was there during the Five Slam of JAMA Days. I've lived in Iowa now for the past 29 years. My wife's originally from here and when we got married down in Houston.
00:01:17
Speaker
We decided to to move up here. I'm a retired teacher. I taught for 34 years and then I still do some basketball coaching, so they say. And that's ah that's about it. Basketball's my hobby. Awesome. How about you, Bill? Do a quick intro.
00:01:35
Speaker
Sure. I'm Bill Walker. I'm also a U of H grad. I transferred to U of H from the University of Wisconsin right after Phi Slamma JAMA. So i was I was here for a little bit of Guy Lewis and a lot more of Pat Foster.
00:01:54
Speaker
Steve, you always always refer to me or when it's time for me to to speak from a player's perspective. Most people that know me, ah especially from back in high school when I played and and fortunate enough to play on a state championship team ah in Wisconsin, they know that from a player's perspective, that that's more of an oxymoron than anything else. but ah But it did allow me a lot of time to sit on the bench and and observe and and ah hopefully gain some somewhat insightful knowledge. And so I try to bring that to the podcast.
00:02:28
Speaker
Too Fuddy. And I'm Steve Chang, 86th grad, Houston Cougar basketball during the five slamma jamma years was my greatest passion and connection to the university at the time. And I'm the big data analytics geek out of the three old men. And I'll primarily be using things like Ken Palm with a handful of interesting stats from Haslam Metrics and Bart Torevic sprinkled in as well
Guest Introduction: Jamie Hollingsworth
00:02:52
Speaker
throughout the season. and And today, we're also honored with a special guest in Jamie Hollingsworth, fellow contributor on the Goku's dot.com network, who does those fantastic scouting reports during the Houston Cougars men's basketball season. and And I would say that he became a household name with Coug fans across the nation when our very own Reed Gettys, I believe, referenced his scouting reports on TV during one of our games.
00:03:20
Speaker
Jamie, why don't you provide the fans with a brief intro around your background? Yeah. So I was born and raised in Gadsden, Alabama. ah My dad was a high school coach. So I've been on a bench since I was in the second grade as the water boy all the way up through my high school playing career. And then nice after high school, I went to UAB where I was a manager for Mike Anderson back in the fastest 40 minutes in basketball days.
00:03:46
Speaker
um A year after that, our video coordinator left in the middle of the season and they promoted me to video coordinator. So that's kind of where I got my scouting start. um Left UAB, did a few years in retail management and then decided I really wanted to get back into basketball. So I moved back to Alabama, coached high school girls basketball. Scouting was always my passion. So, um you know, making sure my teams were prepared was a big thing for me.
00:04:17
Speaker
My wife is from Houston, so we moved back out here and I wanted to pick a ah team and someone that I could get behind and the time was right for Houston basketball. So they brought me in, welcomed me and here we are today. So that's that's me.
00:04:35
Speaker
That's so awesome. ah Great to have you here. Thanks for taking the time out. So let's get
Season Preview: 2425 Houston Cougars
00:04:41
Speaker
right into it. And like last season, our first episode will be focused on providing an in-depth review of the 2425 Houston Cougars men's basketball team with a view into how they will perform this season.
00:04:54
Speaker
Let's start off with an overview perspective on the team going into the season. And why don't we start off with our guests, Jamie, if you want to provide your, I guess, scouting report on the team this year, what are your thoughts going into the season? Well, my first thought is next week is one of the most important weeks of, uh, in American history because basketball's back. Jackson state visits, uh, the Fertitta center and we get the season up and going. So I'm super excited about that. Nice. Um,
00:05:23
Speaker
Last year, I was watching a UConn game, and it was early in the season, and I can't remember who the commentator was, but his comment about UConn was, they're like Noah's Ark. They've got two of everything. Well, when I look at this roster, that's what I see. We've got two guys that could sub in and out at any time, at every position, and we're deep, extremely deep. um you know We found out today that You know, Jacob McFarland is going to be out. We don't know how long. um So we we'll have to wait and see how that goes. Yeah, huge bummer on that. But all 13 guys could play. You know, I don't know what the plan is if any are going to redshirt. I heard Coach Sampson speaking on John Rothstein earlier this week. And he said that he's only going to play five guards. So it'll be interesting to see who those five guards are and what the plan is. but
00:06:18
Speaker
This is probably the deepest roster that we've had since I've been here for sure. Yeah, agreed. How about you, Tom? What do you think from a coach's perspective?
Cougars' Culture & Challenges
00:06:28
Speaker
Well, I'll start off with this little ah saying here. if you know If you look at our program, look at Kelvin Sampson's program, one thing that sticks out to me is the saying that tradition never graduates. You could substitute the word culture for for tradition.
00:06:44
Speaker
But that's how I sum up the coupe program under coach Sampson. You know, it's like the great high school programs like North Shore football. They graduated everybody and people think they're going to have a down year. You know only to have the JV guys step up and fill roles and have another successful season. The exception is that this year we return just about everybody.
00:07:03
Speaker
But in the preceding of years, you know we had to replace three starters. I think one year we actually had to replace four starters and didn't miss a beat. Technically, we only added Milos Uzan for the portal. But I consider Roberts, Cryer, Arsenault, and Malik Wilson as de facto portal additions. A healthy Arsenault might have been drafted last season and getting Roberts, Cryer, Wilson back was like hitting the jackpot.
00:07:31
Speaker
When you look at our some of our conference folks, you know, people will look at Kansas and Baylor's portal additions and be impressed without considering how they will mesh with their returning players, you know, ah will there be chemistry problems, etc. But with the exception of my loss, we know our guys are totally bought into Kelvin system and and have great chemistry.
00:07:49
Speaker
I put that down to my notes before the expedition and now can unequivocally say that Milos is exactly what we needed at to point guard position. And I'm sure right I'm sure y'all will add some of your own little nuggets with ah with Milos and and what you saw in the exhibition game. You can't talk about U of H basketball this coming season without mentioning the loss of Jamal shed.
00:08:11
Speaker
Many people, including me, I know Bill and Steve probably felt this way last year, but he's probably the greatest point guard in the story history of our program. We'll miss his leadership, you know his tenacity, his knack for hitting clutch shots.
00:08:26
Speaker
The best candidate, I think, to be a vocal leader is ah is Roberts. If you look at our starting five, you know I don't know about Milos, but it seems like they're ah pretty quiet guys, not really vocal on the court. But I think that the candidate to be that leader is Juwan, because he's this is like his sixth year here. As far as clutch shooting, I look for Emmanuel, LJ, provide clutch shooting and tight games. I will mention we also lose Damian Dunn.
00:08:54
Speaker
ah who is off to pit. My question is, I don't know how we're going to replace his hundreds of pump fakes. I don't know. I think we got somebody can step in and and and fill that road. Certainly though, I wish the young man you know success in his new place. What will this team's identity be? Every team has an identity, whether it's good, whether it's bad. And as long as Kelvin's the coach,
00:09:21
Speaker
Our identity is always going to be the same. The names may change over the years, but Kelvin, you know, he's the rock. Uh, his teams are always going to play hard-nosed man to man. Sorry, old Coug. Uh, we're not going to play any zone. It's always, it's always man to man. We'll rebound and we'll take care of the ball and, uh, you know, play unselfishly saying that I think it'd be well worth the 10 bucks or so.
00:09:47
Speaker
If you're really interested in our program to get Kelvin's book on Amazon, you know that you can get him used books for 10 bucks or so. And the chapter, I think it's chapter three, the chapter on his Montana tech days is well worth the price of the whole book because once you read that that chapter, ah you know you know who Kelvin is as a coach. he has he's a still same He's the same coach as he was back then at 25 years old, making a couple of thousand dollars a year. you know There was no,
00:10:15
Speaker
ah There's no like carrot ah making the type of money that coaches make today. you know He did it because he loved basketball. It was a labor of love. He could have gone to law school. He could have done some other things, but he decided to, I wouldn't say take a vow of poverty, but a couple thousand dollars a year. The game has changed, but Kelvin's core beliefs are still the same.
00:10:38
Speaker
The game the other day was like it was encouraging to me to see in the exhibition that we didn't believe the shot clock as much as we did the past couple years and a resort to ISO ball. I thought the offense seemed to have much more quote unquote flow than the last couple of years. Hope it's something ah that we continue to do. It appeared when the manual and LGA had open shots.
00:10:59
Speaker
ah They took them instead of passing them up and seeing if we could get a better shot. I thought last year we pass up too many open shots. Early the shot clock can only get a four shot as the shot clock expired.
00:11:10
Speaker
I think ah Jamie you you alluded to this barn entry Kelvin has said on several different platforms that he intends to play only only nine guys and you know you have to take Kelvin at his word and I'm thinking we'll see Milo's LJ Emmanuel the guard slash wing positions and JV air and you want at the big spots and then you bring Jojo and Arsenal will be the first off the bench.
00:11:33
Speaker
I can't think of any other team in the country that that can bring those two types of players off the bench. So you can say we basically have seven starters. To me, that's incredible. 8th and 9th guys I think are going to be in Malik and Ramon.
00:11:49
Speaker
You know, that's going to leave said chase mercy and Cordell probably this year just playing mop up minutes unless something something changes between now and and whenever. Jamie, you mentioned we should receive the news today that McFarland broke his leg at practice to break for him because he registered last year and now has to watch from the bench for another year. However, it was interesting for me to see in the exhibition game that McFarland got in the game ah before before said did.
00:12:17
Speaker
yeah Which brings me to my next point, which is Mercy Miller. There's a lot of conversation on the message boards about Mercy and you know how much playing time they'll think he get or should he be getting. Well, I got one word for those who are going to be disappointed that word is defense. Kelvin knows what he has defensively when it comes to returning players and he knows ah where the newcomers are at defensively because in all the offseason workouts, they work on defense. They don't work on individual offensive skill development in the hours that they're given. Kelvin expects players to do that on their own time. You know, facilities open 24 seven for the players to work on their offensive game. You know, managers are available 24 7 to rebound and pass and you know operate the shooting gun. So Kelvin uses that a lot of time to work on things like transition defense, pick and roll defense.
00:13:11
Speaker
ah Monster in the post and rebounding, you know And he doesn't have to wait until we start playing games to determine whether ah you know a newcomer is ready defensively or not Having said all that I love I like what I saw from from mercy, you know in that exhibition Defensively, well, we'll see but that's that's the way I I, uh, as a coaching you know perspective, that's the way I look at the Cougs this year. You know, it's, uh, like Jamie said, it's exciting, exciting time of the year. Yeah. no that Great insights. How about you, Bill, from a player's perspective? Well, the first thing I have written down is ah aligns exactly with what you said, Jamie, when you made the Noah's Ark reference. I love the depth, uh, love the depth this year. Also love the experience. I think.
00:14:02
Speaker
you know, another year and, you know, the, the defense and the rebound and our static, they're always going to be phenomenal there. yeah There's not going to be a variation there ah offensively though. I think there's, I think, uh, the perimeter shooting is going to be better this year with yeah agree crier and ah sharp being a year older. I think Terrence is going to have a good year offensively and, and,
00:14:28
Speaker
So I think the experience is going to help in a lot of areas. Yeah, I like a lot of, I don't want to put a lot of emphasis on on just one exhibition game, but but I did really, really like, I mean, the defense and the rebounding were phenomenal against A and&M over the weekend, ended but but you you know you kind of expect that. I love the ball movement.
00:14:53
Speaker
that That actually leads me to a concern, but but I absolutely love the ball movement. we We we got open shots We hit a lot of them, but I loved how Unselfishly and how quickly the ball was moving and Tuggler was just as Incredibly or even more so active than he's been in the past and ah and I also like the fact that it looked like they were getting Roberts the ball and in some some different spots Kind of allowing him to be able to make some moves to the basket that he's more comfortable making and he's gonna see an uptick in his numbers this year and One of the things I'd listed a couple of concerns one of them is Making free throws this year because I think that we're gonna go to the line a lot more than we have in the past I think Roberts is gonna be like I said putting in positions to to get the ball to be able to get to the hoop draw more fouls and and
00:15:52
Speaker
Uzan penetrates as well and I think he'll be picking up some fouls. i The one big concern I have is when when it comes down to it and in some of the tougher games, you know who's going to take over when perhaps the shooting isn't there? Because it's not always going to be there, and that's just how it is with D of H. But when when the shooting's not there, if Sharp and Cryer are both off,
00:16:25
Speaker
you know and And we need someone to to just take over and ultimately get the ball in the basket, whether it's themself or getting it out to somebody. I mean, the person that does that that as well or better than anyone.
00:16:40
Speaker
and I've been saying it since the end of last season and I'll continue to repeat it is Jamal shed. Unfortunately, we no longer have Jamal shed. So it, you know, who who's going to take over when we need someone to take over? I think everyone's incredibly unselfish. Like I said, the ball movement's going to result in, in open shots, but when we need someone to take over, you know, the the number one candidate obviously is Oozan because, because that's,
00:17:08
Speaker
a lot of his game naturally. He he penetrates. he He makes damn good decisions with the ball. He he can score if he needs to. He can you know get the ball, the big guys off penetration into the paint, kick it out. you know So he he'd be the number one candidate. Hopefully, and I imagine Sharp will get a little more dominant off the dribble and he may be the other. And I even think that And you could see it in the ah in the A and&M game almost every time down the court when a harsh nose in the game, he had his, excuse me, he had his hand up like, hey, hey, get me the ball, get me the ball. And so I think that he's gonna be aggressive offensively this year. I think you know he's not gonna be bringing the ball down, but he gets the ball on the wing. Yeah, I'd i'd look for him to to step up and and try to take over as well. ah
00:18:06
Speaker
Yeah, but those are the, those are really the two concerns. I mean, injuries are always a concern and you know, it stinks to lose McFarland before he's even played a game. And I know, Tom, you mentioned the entire year. I hadn't heard that yet. um And hopefully it's not the entire year, but obviously he'll be out for probably a significant amount of time. And so if, if everyone can stay healthy, if we don't go through what we went through last year, I mean, I think it's going to be an extraordinary year.
00:18:35
Speaker
And, uh, you know, all things being as they are right now, I think we're going to, we will win the big 12, even though most people pick Kansas, I think it'll be us. And, uh, as you guys saw from the, from the little betting slip, I hold on. We're getting to our predictions later, man. Oh, sorry. our
00:18:56
Speaker
Anything else, Bill?
Excitement for Upcoming Season
00:18:58
Speaker
No, I think that about covers it. i ah Yeah, I'm just excited for Monday. i'm I'm excited for the season to begin. I guess in my intro, I didn't mention that I i am in Houston, so I'm at every game and ah every home game. But yeah, I'm super excited to be there and and super excited for the season to begin.
00:19:16
Speaker
Yeah, great viewpoints, guys. And the analytics are consistent with what you all have articulated. With the great sustained success over the last five seasons, Coach Sampson has had with our program, our Cougars are the analytics darlings across the board with All of the major players, Ken Palm, Haslam Metrix, Bart Torevic, and even the newer players in Evan Mia, all have Houston as a pretty clear number one in the nation with the preseason analytics. Ken Palm's overall adjusted efficiency margin is always going to be the jump off point for me as I articulated the last year.
00:19:54
Speaker
whenever I look at analytics because it's really the the primary stat that takes into ah account both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency in ranking teams going into the season. And just to remind folks or new fans listening in to provide a little bit of context of how we view things with analytics,
00:20:15
Speaker
My threshold has been, if you're top 40 or better in an area, it's a major strength. And if you're 175 and below, you've got major problems in a particular area, and it really needs to be addressed. All in relationship to making the NCAA tourney at the end of the season. If we look at thete all the major stats I focus on during the season, the Cougars are stellar across the board in preseason metrics.
00:20:42
Speaker
and kem pom Our adjusted offensive efficiency is ranked fifth in the nation, which our fans always do a double take on. But we'll get into the details as we take a closer look at at how we achieve that. And not surprisingly, as you guys have all mentioned, our adjusted defensive efficiency is ranked number one in the nation yet again.
00:21:02
Speaker
and combining the two gives us the number one rating in all analytics sites. Now, looking more closely on the offensive side of things, we've historically been applauding offense, ranking number 349 last year in adjusted tempo, and we don't shoot the ball well.
00:21:20
Speaker
ranking 193 last year in effective field goal percentage. And it's basically the reason why fans complain about our offense. But we've historically hung our hat on getting more shots than our opponents by not turning the ball over, ranking ninth in the country in turnover margin. We offensive rebound like heck, where we were 11th in the nation last year.
00:21:43
Speaker
and repressure teams on defense, ranking third in opponents turnover percentage. When you look at some of the more unique stats by Haslam metrics, you really get to see the bigger picture. We're 11th in the nation on quick points off of steals and 13th in the nation on quick points off of offensive rebounds, resulting in a number one ranking on field goal attempt rate. Basically meaning we get off way more shots than anyone else. and so Even if we're not the most efficient, just by shooting more, we're going to score more. Now, zeroing in on our bread and butter defensive side, we're elite at so many key metrics. In Kim Palm, our effective field goal percentage defense has been our staple, challenging every shot, ending last year at number two in the nation.
00:22:32
Speaker
number 11 on three point shots and number three on two point shots. Turnover percentage defense was number three in the nation, which is really a more recent phenomena over the last three years. And our block percentage ended up at number two in the country. Bottom line is that we were smothering on defense with nowhere for teams to attack. I know we're going to get into the roster makeup next season and the next segment, but with four of five starters running it back are two starter like players coming back from injury and really looking good in our exhibition. Plus coach Sampson hand.
00:23:09
Speaker
picked transfer in Milos Uzan to backfill sheds point guard duties. Gentlemen, I think we're in for a special ride this season. And I will be flying in, as I mentioned, offline from California for Weiboar Games to watch live this season.
Roster Analysis
00:23:27
Speaker
Now,
00:23:27
Speaker
as we get back into taking a closer look at the roster. And I know you guys have already covered a little bit of this in the the previous segment. Why don't we kick things off with a closer look to the roster? Tom, what's your take in in terms of looking at the team makeup from a player perspective this season?
00:23:46
Speaker
You know, if you've been watching U of H basketball last couple of years, ah a lot of these guys don't need a introduction. Like I mentioned earlier, you know, the Milos Uzan was the key transfer portal piece. Like you said, carefully selected to run the point of guard position. It's kind of having like the keys to the Ferrari, you know, and not just going to hand it over to to some inexperienced player. So, you know, Kelvin went out and found a guy that had two years experience starting for a big 12 team at Oklahoma. And, you know, LJ played up what three years at at Baylor won a national championship. He was on that national championship team. This will be his second year, you know, with, uh, with the Cougs Emmanuel, you know, Emmanuel's experience. He's played for the, I think the Israeli national team, you know, as as a youngster. So the bright lights aren't going to bright lights are going to affect these guys.
00:24:44
Speaker
I know they've been there, been there, done that. J.B. Eyre coming back for another year. Roberts, his sixth year. And then, of course, we have Jojo coming back for his second year. And then this will be Terrence's third year, really, really probably only his second. Malik Wilson, he, after we had all those entries last year, he made so many key contributions.
00:25:08
Speaker
I think once he knew that he was going to get ah some playing time because he he basically had to be on the floor because he had nobody else, it seemed like he was maybe a little more relaxed on the offensive end.
00:25:21
Speaker
But he had some big shots and really a good defensive player. I think he's only 6-1, but he has he has really great length. He's able to go up there and, well, I would say alley-oop passes. But every time we throw an alley-oop pass, it's it's a miss. But Malik is really outstanding defensively. He played at Texas Tech for a couple of years. and And then we have Ramon, who's one of my favorites just because You know, big time score in high school at, at, at pair land. I think he was the guy Lewis, uh, award winner, scored a lot of points and he gets to college and, you know, you look around and everybody's the leading scorer on their team. So, you know, you gotta be able to do something else. And, and, uh, he found his niche, found his role.
00:26:07
Speaker
As a guy that dies on the floor, takes charges, he rebounds. Just a grinder, great work ethic. When coaching staff has asked, you know, who's your gym rat? Well, it's ah it was Ramon and Ryan Elvin last year. So even though Ramon might only get like one shot, you know, maybe a game or whatever, you know, he he practices on his game more than more than anybody else.
00:26:29
Speaker
and Then we have ah Jacob, who's out for the year. ah Jacob Mafarlane. I wouldn't say out for the year. I'm i'm i'm sorry about that, but he had surgery j on his foot. Broke it at practice yesterday. We have big said that's coming back. And once again, due to all those injuries last year, we had to rely on on said to come in and he gave us some valuable minutes, especially that Kansas game when he went in there and he stood toe to toe with Mr Dickinson and.
00:26:58
Speaker
He more than held his own. By the way, he had a little nice dunk there, a random floor. And I don't know if you ever seen, uh, said run, but for a guy that's like six, nine, six, 10, and he's listed at two 65. I'm not sure what his actual weight is. He can really run.
00:27:15
Speaker
I mean, he can really get up and down the floor, but he had a little nice dunk in the exhibition game. ah We have the two guys, well, one of the other two guys at redshirt last year, Cordell, who broke both wrists ah last year. That's why he didn't play. Last year, the redshirted him and then got the two freshmen.
00:27:35
Speaker
You have ah Chase McCarty, one of the best shooters ah shooters in high school's class last year. and And then we have Mercy, Mercy Miller, which has a lot of people excited, but we'll we'll just have to see whether you know where mercy Mercy gets some some serious playing time this year. When you're at Kansas playing in Fog Allen, and it's a tight game, Kelvin's gonna go with who he trusts and and you know It would be difficult for ah for an inexperienced player to get in the game, but you never know. Yeah. Okay. That's great. How about you, Bill? What's your view? Any ah additional perspectives on the players and the makeup of the roster? Yeah. Well, not a whole lot more to say. I think every everyone's pretty well been covered. ah ah I'll mention a couple of things. Number one with
00:28:26
Speaker
with with Uzan. it It wasn't simply a ah matter of Kelvin going out and recruiting a player that he felt comfortable with coming in and replacing Shed. Uzan wanted to come to U of H and he recruited us just as much as as he was recruited by us. ah He wants to be here.
00:28:50
Speaker
He's a hell of a hard worker. he He's smart. His dad, but ah like you, Jamie, his dad is a basketball coach and so he's got ah he's got a high basketball IQ. He wants to get better ah on both ends of the court and and so I think he's he's going to do a great job. Again,
00:29:11
Speaker
You know, the the concern is filling Shed's shoes, but I say that because Shed was just so almost otherworldly. I mean, on and off the court, he just, he he was so valuable to this program. and And so it's, he's generational. He's not someone that that you come across constantly. So I don't ever want to give the impression that I'm downgrading or Not having enough positive things to say about Uzan, it's just that he's he's filling some huge shoes. I think he's an ideal person to come in and and while it's impossible for anyone to fill shed shoes, I'm really happy with Uzan as our new point guard.
00:29:58
Speaker
I think both Cryer and Sharp, ah who are going to most likely be the two leading scorers, I think their shooting is going to be better this year, I think. And once again, I hate to heavily focus on just the one exhibition game, but they were moving the ball so well and and that was part of the reason that that that we blew A and&M out you know in addition to the defense and the relentless rebounding. So I'm expecting you just great things from our back court in general. Terrence coming back, I think Terrence is in for a big year. yeah He's been so highly rated every year and it always tends to fall a little short.
00:30:43
Speaker
yeah Last year is unfair because he was injured but this year um I'm high on Arsenal I think he's gonna he he's gonna do really good things for us He was it surprised me at the beginning of the year last year that that he came out and rebounded so well but he did and and I think I think he's gonna play well all around again this year and and I think he's gonna ultimately position himself well to be drafted and The others, when we have two at every position, it's now said as the i guess as as the backup center, although it'll be Juwan, Javier,
00:31:24
Speaker
and JoJo playing the overwhelming majority of the minutes. But you know if we need someone to come in and bang and you know pick up some fouls and be physical, and Tom, you mentioned Dickinson, and that's exactly who I think of when I think of Sid coming in and and being effective, you know whatever whatever we can get out of him is is great. So that's about what I see with the team this year. I'm not going to at any point under understate or underestimate the loss of shed because of everything he did. But I think this is going to be an extraordinary year. Yeah, I agree. How about you, Jamie? Really curious in terms of of what your take is on the roster makeup this season. Yeah, so coming out of the Texas A and&M game, you know, if I was scouting Houston, I would start with the guards. Milos, super creative with the ball in his hands.
00:32:22
Speaker
Um, made some really nice spin moves. I think that we'll see his game go to another level since he's playing with better players this year. Um, you know, he can make his move inside, kick out to an open shooter, um, backup point guard, Malik thought he looked a lot more comfortable last Sunday than he did all of last year. Uh, he missed a wide open layup and I know he got chewed out and filmed for that, but other than that, I thought he played really, really well. Um,
00:32:52
Speaker
He's got that nice little two dribble pull up. And then Sampson has said in the past that he's one of the best defenders on the team by far. So I think we'll see him take his game to another level this year. LJ, we all know what he can do from a shooting perspective.
00:33:09
Speaker
But I think an underrated part about his game is also that getting in the paint, a little floater. um So I really like that. Mercy, let's say he backs up LJ this year. Hard to say what will happen there, but all he sees is that green light. When he touches the ball, he's looking to get a bucket. Had over 60 points in the game last year in high school. I've talked about he knocked out LeBron's two sons two years ago. so Yeah, he's ah he is the next guy you know that i I would circle as that Marcus Sasser type therapist here. E-man, incredible, man. He can shoot it from super deep. I mean, I think his second three of the game the other day was 40-footer. um He's taken his rebounding and his defense to another level. um So he's going to be a good wing defender, Terrence.
00:34:05
Speaker
um man, just so good to see him back on the court. That's the main thing for me, but y'all are right. He had his hand up every time every trip down. Um, his mid ranges is, is phenomenal. yeah Um, I know he, he can be a three and D guy for us if he needs to be, but yeah, when he gets it in that, uh, short corner, he, he doesn't miss that shot very often. Um, moving onto the bigs J one.
00:34:33
Speaker
If you let him get it on that right block, get it over that shoulder, it's over. But I thought that, I think Tom mentioned it earlier, they got him in and a few new places on Sunday. I saw him catching the pinch post, face up, did a little skip pass. So I think they can use them up there. He's such an underrated passer. He's a really, really good passer. But like I said, if he gets it in that left hand for that little hook shot, it's a wrap.
00:35:03
Speaker
Uh, Ramon Walker, glue guy, the ultimate glue guy, every single team in America needs a Ramon Walker. Uh, first one on the floor, his first defensive possession once he came in the game the other day was a charge. So he's that guy, uh, made a couple of threes the other day, which was cool to see. Um, but yeah, he's that guy that you, every team in America should want. Uh, we didn't get to see JV air the other day, but we know.
00:35:32
Speaker
Throw it up, he'll go get it. um Killer rebounder on both ends. Maybe the best shot blocker in America. And then Jojo, same thing. I thought he looked a lot more comfortable the other day. All of his shots were just rimming out, but they were all they were all right shots. I think he's extended his range a little bit. We saw the short corner jumper that rimmed out. Who knows, he may even hit a three or two this year. so That'd be something to keep an eye on. Big said coming off the bench. We've mentioned him a few times. um Last year on the podcast that I was listening to, everybody's like, we can't put said in. what What do we do if said gets the ball? Who cares if said gets the ball? We've got to score. We've got guys that can score. So let him go out there, be a bully, get five fouls, and high five is coming off the floor.
00:36:27
Speaker
um Do you know what you know what Kelvin did was said to make him a better player get him as far away from the ball as possible. It just made just made him a better player. he um The one thing I noticed about said was I was in the man cave last year watching our game at Central Florida. And I can't remember number five's name for Central Florida, but he just kept slapping. Said just kept poking him, poking him. He kept slapping his hand. That dude gets under a guy's skin. I know Hunter Dickinson wanted nothing to do with him.
00:37:03
Speaker
at our place last year. Cordell, and he's really coming into his body. He's gotten so much bigger since he got to U of H. Came in, showed his speed the other day, showed his passing ability. Made a great skip pass to Ramon for three. Great, you know, up and comer for us for sure. Jacob will miss him hopefully. You know, it's one of those things where he can get back later in the year, I thought,
00:37:31
Speaker
You know, he showed a lot of potential, um just his length to just jump as high as you can with your arms straight up in the air. It's going to make it hard for anybody to shoot over him. So um if he's, if he's out for the whole year, you know, he can use that to just keep getting stronger yeah line and come back. I know coach Bishop was on your show last time and he talked about the guys that are red shirting that he takes them to another level in their off season. So if he gets the medical red shirt,
00:38:00
Speaker
then I know Coach Bishop will get him right for sure. And then last but not least, another Alabama guy, Chase McCarty. He was a player in Alabama before he transferred down to IMG. So I saw him play a good bit in high school. He reminds me a lot of Terrence. They have similar games defensively, good length. um So I'm really excited for his future and and know that he'll he'll be a good player for us down the road for sure. Awesome. Thanks for those insights, Jamie.
00:38:31
Speaker
We only lose one of our top players. But obviously, as you guys have all mentioned, it's a huge one in shed. But but this segment's for you, Bill. I know you've mentioned over and over your concern around losing shed this year and what that would potentially mean for this year's team. And I don't want to discount his contributions either. But if you compare it to last season, we lost three starters right in Sasser, Walker, and Mark.
00:39:01
Speaker
coming into the season. and And we did fine. You know, with analytics, I like to use Bart Torvick's top 30 player box score plus minus in assessing how players impact winning. And obviously shed was our number one guy by far at an astounding plus 11.6 last season. And that was a huge jump up for him from, I think he was in the fours or fives, right, the season before. Sasser, however, the the year before, he was a plus 11. So they're basically comparable. And then we lost two other players in Walker and Mark from that team.
00:39:37
Speaker
And then for number two, this year we have Roberts. And Roberts also made that that huge jump, 10.6, right? Then it goes to Quira plus 8.2, Francis plus 7.2, and finally Sharp at plus seven. And you've got a core of guys that are difference makers, right? Coming back in, you only expect them to get better. Then you add in Milos Uzan, who was a plus two, but I expect that to be a huge jump.
00:40:04
Speaker
You know, Jamie, as you had mentioned, he's going to be playing with much better players this season. So you expect those numbers to to go up and we're loaded in the starting five. Then you add in Terrence Arsenault, who was at plus six point six before his injury and really coming into his own. And quite honestly, for a guy that hasn't played in almost a year since his injury,
00:40:28
Speaker
And I know, again, it was only an exhibition game against A and&M, but boy, he looks smooth and it clearly looked like the game has slowed down for him heading into this season.
00:40:40
Speaker
Malik Wilson came on strong towards the end of the season, as you guys had mentioned. And I was a huge critic of him last year until he started getting those minutes, because I felt like he was always in the wrong position and and just not making smart plays. But he ended the season at a plus 5.5, which is huge. And then my favorite player on the team is the old guys know, Jojo Tuggler, who was at a 4.6 before his injury.
00:41:09
Speaker
And this is all before even mentioning Ramon Walker, Mercy Miller, any of the other redshirt or true freshmen. And we're talking about the deepest team in the Samson era here at Houston. There's there's no sandbagging it this year, guys. We are stacked for a national championship run. so So I'm excited about this roster. I'm not as concerned about you know, losing shit because we lose players every year. And I know he's a generational talent, but I don't think there's any way to spin this team being, and it's reflected right in the analytics as well as the preseason AP polls were one of the favorites for a a national championship run.
00:41:53
Speaker
Okay, so now finally for the predictions, overall regular season record, conference record, and then national ranking for UH this season. Bill, I'm going to let you go first.
00:42:06
Speaker
OK, well, there are 20 games that I i think it's 20. It's either 19 or 20 that I think we absolutely win there. I don't think even if you know we have poor shooting night. You know with our standards of just rebounding as well as we rebound both ends of the court defense, we're going to win those games. There are 10 games.
00:42:32
Speaker
that could go potentially either way. We have Auburn here on November 9th. We have Alabama in Las Vegas, number two rated Alabama, ah November 26th. We're at Kansas State, January 11th. We're at Kansas the 25th. We've got Baylor here on February 10th. We're at Arizona on the 15th versus Iowa State on the 22nd at Tech on the 24th.
00:43:02
Speaker
at home against Kansas on March 3rd and at Baylor on March 8th. Of those 10, if we go six and four, I think that's damn good, which would put us at, I think that would put us at 26 and four, assuming we've got the other, it's 20 rather than 19, but that'd put us at 26 and four. i mean if we If we go seven and three,
00:43:28
Speaker
27 and three going into the into the big 12 tournament. Yeah, either way. We're a one seed Regardless of what happens in the tournament and as I began to allude to earlier having just made a trip to Las Vegas ah I put a little money down on a future bet and picked the team to win the national championship. And it so it's it's easy to be biased and to say, yes, I think U of H is going to win the national championship. but but But when you've actually got to throw your money down, then it's what are you going to do then? And I had no hesitations. Steve, I do think you underestimate Shed's impact on the team.
00:44:13
Speaker
but With all that said, I think we're cutting down the nets this year. Nice. How about you, Jamie? What's your take? So I truly believe that we will cut down the nets. As far as non con goes, I've got us at 10 and one, either Auburn or Alabama. um I had an opportunity, I guess it was about a week and a half ago that I went to Alabama.
00:44:40
Speaker
Uh, my dad flew me in, we went and watched the Alabama weight forest, uh, exhibition game and they're the real deal. Yeah. ah great um They beat weight forest us by 25. They didn't have Brent Nelson, Latrell, right cell, or a Chris young blood who could potentially all three be starters for them. I mean, that'll, that'll be a ah tough game. It's one that we can win for sure. If they played like they did against Memphis the other day, I think that we probably get them.
00:45:10
Speaker
Uh, financially for the Cougs, it would be good if we could win that one. and Yeah. Um, Auburn's going to be really talented. Um, so I'll give them 10 and one. We'll see what happens. yeah You could absolutely go 11 and 0 in the non-con. Um, I would say 15 and five, 14 and six.
00:45:32
Speaker
in the conference just because I think the league is better all around this year than it was last year. Cincinnati, BYU, even West Virginia, Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State's not gonna beat us, but they're gonna they're goingnna beat a few more teams than they did last year. um So I think the conference is just better overall. It's a little deeper, but with some of these teams, they're being put together year by year.
00:46:02
Speaker
And I think it takes a while. Like the Kansas States, they have an incredible roster, but who knows how well they all play together. So they're one of those teams that are going to beat some teams and then they're going to have some bad losses.
00:46:17
Speaker
Um, so it wouldn't shock me if, if one of these surprise teams were to upset us this year, whereas they did not last year. Uh, we know how good Iowa state is. Um, I would take us and Iowa state over Kansas right now. Um, me too you know, they're good. Kansas is a good team, but.
00:46:35
Speaker
Again, they're kind of thrown together a little bit more than they have been in and previous years. So we'll see how they gel. But I would say 15 and five to 14 and six. um If you go 14 and six, it puts you at 24 and seven overall. um So that's where I have us.
Predictions: Record & Performance
00:46:53
Speaker
But I think that as long as we stay healthy, we can make that run in the big show this year and cut down the nets on Monday night. Nice. By the way,
00:47:04
Speaker
Just from the research I've done and from what little I've seen so far, I do have us in Alabama. I think we're we're the two top teams. I think Kansas is a bit overrated. I think Duke's a bit overrated. Connecticut's going to be very good again, but but I think the two best teams are Alabama and U of H. All right. How about you, Tom? I think we we win the Big 12 again, and I'm with like a ah Jamie and Bill.
00:47:34
Speaker
My prediction is we're going to go 15-5 in the conference. This conference is it's it's tough. you know When Arizona's predicted ah around 5th, then you know the conference is really good. It's crazy. I predict we go 9-1 at home. Don't know who the loss is going to be to, but ah you know just never know.
00:47:58
Speaker
So I predict we go nine at one at home. We go six on four on the road. So 15 and five first place in the big 12. We're the toughest team. And to where the big 12, you know, of course you have to protect your home home court.
00:48:13
Speaker
but you also have to win on the road and you don't win on the road. If you're, if you're soft, uh, if you're a front runner like Kansas, you know, they probably go and split on the road, probably win all their games at home by a hundred non-conference. I say we go 10 one, uh, with the loss coming to Alabama. I think we go two and one in that players era tournament. And then at the end of the season, I think we go two and one into conference tourney.
00:48:41
Speaker
just because as a conference turning and, you know, in a perfect world, we wouldn't have to play that because you play basketball for like two and a half months to see who the best team is in the big 12. And then you have a tournament for like four days and whoever wins, you know, they hang a banner or whatever. And, you know, it'll probably be Iowa State again, because that's their Super Bowl. I think they would rather have a big 12 conference tournament banner to hang and then win the whole national championship.
00:49:11
Speaker
So I think we finished the season 27 and seven with the number one seed just because of our, you know, the teams that we play. And then, uh, then I think we finished the season on a six game winning streak and when the national championship and, uh, and go 33 and seven and Kelvin gets to use his ladder and cut the nets. And, uh, we'll see if he coaches anymore after, after that. Oh, he's got that contract that.
00:49:40
Speaker
He's making like four million a year, but it'd be a heck of a way to cap ah to cap his career. I mean, he's done everything except win a national championship.
00:49:50
Speaker
Yeah, I'd love to have to make that kind of a decision if it means we win a national championship. But yeah, that's that's incredible how close. It's uncanny, quite honestly, how close all of our predictions are. Because I've also got us at 25-6 overall, 15-5 in the conference, winning the conference. I think five losses will still win the conference this year, given how tough it is.
00:50:16
Speaker
I'm predicting losses also to Bama just because of of what we're playing losing at KSU, at KU, at Arizona, at Tech, at Baylor. And I also believe we're cutting down the nets for our first national championship.
Conclusion & Future Episodes
00:50:32
Speaker
So there you have it. That's it for our second annual Houston Cougars preview and in episode number 30 of the No Conference for Open podcast. Hope you all enjoyed it. And again, would really appreciate it if folks would follow, subscribe, or collect our podcast.
00:50:48
Speaker
depending on your podcast platform of choice. We are also available via the Republic of Football podcast feed from the folks at Dave Campbell's Texas Football as the only basketball centric podcast or at the Goku's dot com website for those that prefer to digest the content that way.
00:51:04
Speaker
We appreciate the continued support from all. Also, please give us a follow on our Twitter account, No Conferences for All Men. Thank you all again for listening and be on the lookout for our Big 12 and National Top 25 episode in the, I guess, the coming couple of weeks. So please be on the lookout to download and listen as the episodes drop. Take care, everyone.