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College Fooball going to have a hard time coming up with the CFP rankings
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Eli talks about who he thinks the top 20 will be in college football after week 13. Then, he talks about how much percent chance each top 20 team has to make the College Football Playoffs.
November 29, 2020
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Transcript
Introduction & Predictions Overview
00:00:00
Speaker
Hello welcome to the 14th episode of ELS studio sports today We will be talking about my predictions for the top 20 teams in college football the rankings obviously um After week 13 and For those teams I'm going to give them a percentage to make the college football playoff some teams have a high chance while some teams are have either no chance or a very low chance to make it. There's actually, in my opinion, there'll only be two teams that have ah over a 50% chance, only one team that has more than 95. So let's get started. um We're gonna go over the rankings first, then we'll um say the percentages, in my opinion, to have a chance of making the college football playoff.
Alabama & Notre Dame's Playoff Chances
00:00:51
Speaker
There are only four teams in the college football playoff,
00:00:54
Speaker
Um, a lot of people think there should be eight, but it's going to stick with four for probably a while. So let's get started. I believe number one will be Alabama and there's proof that they, they should be number one. They play number 22, Auburn last, or well, they were number 22 probably won't be ranked after that game, but.
00:01:15
Speaker
Alabama, even when they play a decent team in Auburn, they're still able to play very well. They play Alabama football. Mack Jones plays. Very night, very well. John Matchy, Devonte Smith do their thing. The defense plays very well, only allowing 13 points. I think that that was a great all-around game by the Crimson Tide. I think in the end, their defense wasn't great. In the end, their offensive line wasn't great, but it it all turned out fine as they won 42-13.
00:01:48
Speaker
um I think that that game just proved at just Alabama needed to prove themselves and they absolutely did after they won by 29 points even though they were only a 24.5 point favorite um they they played very well in the beginning I think everyone knew that Auburn didn't have a chance and it was really only competitive for the first six minutes of the game and and after that you know it's just hard to beat Alabama no one's done it yet this season and it's been a while since anyone's done that so um
00:02:24
Speaker
Number two, I've got Notre Dame. I think they're a very good team. They had a tough game though. They played North Carolina was a he wasn't who had a Heisman trophy candidate earlier in the season with Sam Howell. He's not a candidate anymore or in most people's opinions. But Sam Howell and the North Carolina offense had a great first quarter. But after that, they only had three combined points.
00:02:51
Speaker
Um, a great defensive game for Notre Dame or the last three quarters are very good defensively. And actually when I was watching that game in the beginning, I thought they combined for more than a hundred points, but no, the defense has showed up. Just Notre Dame just did a little bit better job than North Carolina's defense. Although North Carolina played very good defense in that game, not including the first quarter. So.
00:03:17
Speaker
a Great job by Notre Dame to pull away.
Clemson vs. Ohio State: Ranking Debate
00:03:19
Speaker
I believe the final score was 31 17 Ian book another great game and just that offense has been Explosive even after losing Chase Claypool now an NFL player is playing phenomenally as a rookie You know, it's it's just a great job that Ian's booked Ian book has been doing um Number three, I still have clumps in there or I I mean The committee for some reason put Clemson ahead of Ohio State and Ohio State didn't play. So there's nothing that can happen that would put Ohio State ahead of Clemson. So I'm keeping Clemson there. Great job by Trevor Lawrence. I know he hadn't played in a while. I think it was 30 plus days since he played, but five weeks.
00:04:06
Speaker
so It was week eight was the last week he played a great job by Trevor Lawrence. um Some people doubted that you would play well, but he denies that he played a great game. Next we have Ohio State. Not no game to talk about their game against Illinois was canceled, but I want to talk about something really quick for Ohio State. If one more game gets canceled, they are not going to be eligible for the Big 10 championship.
00:04:37
Speaker
That's a big thing for teams like A and&M, Florida, Cincinnati, and BYU.
Florida & A&M: Performance Highlights
00:04:43
Speaker
So watch out because you got to stop COVID over there. Ryan Day has it and they've got to be extra careful because or else they're not making the Big 10 championship. Anyways, I got number five, Florida. They played a great game against Kentucky, especially in the second half, their offense showed up.
00:05:06
Speaker
Um, three interceptions in the whole, in the the second half, that great job taking away the football from Kentucky. No points in the second half by Kentucky. I know the Florida defense has been doubted, but a phenomenal defensive game, mostly in the second half, but the first half was still decent. Um, I think Florida is doing a lot better defense defensively still, uh, needs to improve a little bit. Cause once you play Alabama, tiny mistakes are going to cost you a lot. And.
00:05:35
Speaker
They're gonna come back to bite you, but great job so far by the Florida defense. And then Kyle Trask, oh my goodness. i I just don't see how he won't win the Heisman Trophy. i just He's been playing so phenomenally. He has better numbers than Joe Burrow from the most part of last last season. That's crazy. ah And then Kyle Pitts is finally back from that big concussion.
00:06:04
Speaker
Plays very well. I think he had a hat trick and touchdowns. Great job there ah Number six, I've got a and then they're gonna drop one because of their offense, uh, I Mean LSU what great defense Derek Stanley doing it. um He's back and you know what? LSU if they had played good offense in that game The A and&M would have lost I'm telling you LSU after that um after that Isaiah Spiller 52 yard touchdown run played great defense for the rest of the game. So I want to give a round of applause to that LSU defense. Just a little unlucky that their offense lost Joe Burrow and a ton of
Georgia & Miami: Quarterback & Team Analysis
00:06:52
Speaker
pieces. So ah no victory for LSU. Number seven we got Cincinnati no game to talk about that game against Temple got canceled.
00:07:02
Speaker
So I believe number eight will be Georgia. Okay, so Georgia was number 12 I believe a few weeks ago, maybe a couple so JT Daniels a name you have to remember you might be hearing it get called out for the next few years JT Daniels a great game against South Carolina this dude is through two games, he's been playing much better than the two quarterbacks ahead of him. I think he's gonna be the starter next year. Actually, no, it's gonna be Jamie Newman. But he's gonna be the backup, not the back backup. He's gonna be ahead of Stetson Bennett and he's gonna be ahead of Duann Mathis, although actually Duann Mathis is a left. So he will be ahead of Stetson Bennett. So I just think JT Daniels has been fundamentally well, doing great. so
00:07:56
Speaker
I love what he's been doing so far. If he can keep it up for the next, uh, few years, you know, you'll be hearing his name a lot. Number nine, I've got Miami. I do not think they played last weekend. Uh, Derek King and his group, actually they have one of the most loaded rosters in college football. Um, they have Quincy Rocher defensively. He he's great.
00:08:23
Speaker
Then they have Dierking, who is a little bit underrated. They also have Elijah Bolden defensively. So that's a great stack team. It has um three well-known players on the team. So I like what they've been doing so far this year, but unfortunately they lost two games already. So it's unlikely that they will be playing in the ACC Championship.
00:08:48
Speaker
ah So we got number 10 Indiana, I believe they will go up they played a very strong game Against Maryland and then obviously Northwestern loss that could help and then you know what? Michael Pennick's a junior Get that name stuck in your head because he has been a breakout player this year against Ohio State. He was awesome. He was one of the best quarterbacks in if you If it was based on that game, if college football's quarterbacks were based on their best game, Michael Penix Jr. would be up on the top. Maybe Kyle Trask, Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence, and then Michael Penix. He's a great quarterback. The defense has been playing very well. They only had one not great game and that was against Ohio State.
00:09:36
Speaker
but Tom Allen is right that team knows how to fight. They're a great team. I love what they've been doing so far Everyone's thinking about Indiana even I said I wanted
Indiana & Iowa State: Surprising Contenders?
00:09:47
Speaker
episodes. They don't have anything on their team They're gonna lose I predicted them against Penn State in a previous episode But they have proven every single person that is not an Indiana fan wrong I think if I think they almost I think they're better than Ohio State. I think they I think they're better than most of the teams up here so far Just that they lost to Ohio State. So I'm they're gonna be a little lower
00:10:16
Speaker
ah Number 11, Iowa State. I know this seems a little bit high, but I what they've been doing. They're a very good team. I know it's been close games against teams that should not be a close game. I know they lost to Oklahoma State. I know Texas was a close game and it shouldn't have been, but I just love what Iowa State's been doing. They have what, a 99% chance to make the big 12 championship right now at seven and two.
00:10:45
Speaker
I mean, come, give this team some respect that they deserve. They are being a very good team. I like what they're doing. Anyways, number 12, Oklahoma. I was, I know right now Oklahoma's ahead of them, but actually, Ohio iowa State beat Oklahoma, so I put them ahead. And I think the committee might do that too. But Oklahoma, they lost two early games. I think they were wanting two to start with.
00:11:14
Speaker
they've been playing great since then I think they're playing much better they're playing some good football they've won five straight games they're doing great I love what they've been doing Spencer Rattlers played so much better not throwing as many interceptions I like it I like it so ah Oklahoma is doing well now number 13 BYU so BYU is actually a very good team. Zach Wilson, a Heisman Trophy candidate, he is their starting quarterback. I mean,
BYU & Wisconsin: Contenders or Pretenders?
00:11:46
Speaker
BYU, no one's gonna take them seriously. If you see them in the college football playoff, everyone's gonna be like, okay, who are we gonna play next? But you can't look past BYU. If you have them on their schedule, they can beat you down. Boise State, they were ranked at the time when they played them. They got crushed, 51-17.
00:12:07
Speaker
So if if you think that BYU did not good, think twice because they are becoming a very good team. um So next we have ah number 14, Wisconsin. They did not play this weekend, but I still think they're a pretty good team. um They played against a very good Northwestern team. um They have a very good quarterback in Graham Mertz. Be careful with them. um Wisconsin coming off Um, they haven't played too many good teams though. Um, they, they just need to play better teams. So they actually will have two tests, big tests left. They play Indiana and Iowa to rank currently ranked teams. So, uh, Wisconsin can prove themselves in both of those games. Um, next, next we have Northwestern Northwestern.
00:13:04
Speaker
If they hadn't lost, they might be number seven, but sadly they lost, or unfortunately for Northwestern fans, they lost against Michigan State. Big upset. That's Michigan State's fifth outright win as a double digit underdog since 2015.
00:13:26
Speaker
Give some credit to Michigan State, but it's really the first half that cost Northwestern. They they just didn't play while they they were down at 1.17. Nothing. Their offense just couldn't get going until too late and it came back to bite them. So they lost that game. I'm at 15. I think only go down seven rankings, although he will hurt them. I think they still have a chance at the Big 10 championship, but but they will have to win out. Uh, next we have number 16. I believe it will be USC, the Trojans.
00:14:01
Speaker
They have a top tier quarterback in Keaton Slovis, but no one else there has been talking, no one and else there is, no one's talking about them. Look, I like USC a little bit, but they they're playing teams that aren't that hard to beat. And they only beat both of the Arizona teams by Four or less they beat Arizona by four and Arizona State by one then they beat Utah by 16 So look USC is maybe just getting started and maybe just warming up, but it's gonna be tough Actually, I think they have a high chance at losing against UCLA So next we have Coastal Carolina a very good team actually a very
00:14:54
Speaker
um Underrated team they are sitting at 9 and 0 right now 9 straight wins A lot of team a lot of people are not looking at them seriously. I don't think they're gonna be able to make the college football playoff however They're building off this 9 to no season and they're gonna play a little bit more games, but they're building off this a And maybe later, maybe in a few years, they'll be able to at least be in the top 10. I think they've done a great job so far this year. um Next, we have Oklahoma State at 18. I know they were just 23rd, and I know they only beat Texas Tech by six, but I mean, they beat some tough teams. They beat Iowa State. um So, you know, I know Oklahoma State's lost against Oklahoma and Texas, who is
00:15:45
Speaker
But you know, they've beaten some good teams. They beat number 25 and Tulsa. They beat Iowa State. So I'm just going to give them, I'm just going to give them this.
Oregon's Struggles: What's Happening?
00:15:55
Speaker
Although if they start playing not great, ah they're not going to be in the top 20 anymore. Uh, so next at number 19, we got Marshall. They are still undefeated at seven and O. So here we go. Another underrated,
00:16:12
Speaker
um undefeated team, so I believe Marshall is Again, they're gonna be like Coastal Carolina. They can build off the season and the momentum anyways next and number 20 Oregon they lost to Oregon State ouch um I So Oregon State gets a win and it's probably they're gonna be their biggest one of the season it was Oregon's first loss of the season and And I mean, Oregon's just overrated every year. and It's the same story. Look, they only beat UCLA by three. Does that tell you enough for your... Okay, look, UCLA is one in two and only beat Cal Berkeley. Or they were coming into that game. ah After that game, okay? Look, you have to be able to beat those teams by more than three.
00:17:08
Speaker
That's it's that simple.
Top Teams' Playoff Chances
00:17:09
Speaker
You just have to beat him by more than three. So look, if they're able to do that, that's great. But look, against Cal Berkeley and against Washington, they have to win by at least 10. So now we're going to go over the chances to make the college football playoff. So I'm going to go in order of the top 20 because I don't think any team that's not in the top 20 is going to have a chance. So and some of the teams in the top 20 I believe do not have a chance. So Here we go, number one Alabama. I'm going with 97% look. Alabama is undefeated. They're probably, they have a high chance at winning the SEC championship against Florida. So I'm going BAM. At number two, Notre Dame, I think they have a 43% chance. It's this low because when they have a rematch against Clemson,
00:17:59
Speaker
Uh, I'm favoring Clemson in that matchup. So number three, Clemson, I believe has a 47% chance. Why? Because they lost a game in the regular season. They cannot afford to lose a game in the regular season and they cannot afford to lose against Notre Dame, um, in the championship. So it's going to be a good game, but it's going to be a close one. Um, and if Clemson loses, they have a note, they have no chance, I think.
00:18:26
Speaker
And now, if they win, I think they have ah basically like a 95% chance. Number four, Ohio State, I believe has a 55% chance, so. I think it's you know, it's just a very good team that you're looking at. I have a top tier quarterback. I have Master T gap running back. The only thing that could hurt them um Is their defense so if they end up playing a team like Florida or Alabama Clemson Notre Dame, Texas A and&M those offenses will absolutely kill them It's it's just not gonna help because when you're facing top-tier quarterbacks like Matt Jones Ian book Trevor Lawrence Kyle Trask Kellen Monde It's not gonna help to not have a good defense. So it could hurt them
00:19:23
Speaker
Now at number five, we have Florida. I think they have a 23% chance to make the college football play. Actually, in my opinion, I think it seems a little low for them. But look, if they beat Alabama, there's a ah hundred percent chance they're making it. But if they lose, there's like a zero percent chance. And I think that Alabama is going
A&M & Cincinnati: Playoff Pathways
00:19:43
Speaker
to win that game. So it's basically like it's it's not even it's I mean, look,
00:19:49
Speaker
If they beat Alabama, they're going to make it, but if they don't, they're not going to make it. And I think Alabama is going to win. So it's just, it's just hard to beat Alabama. Like I already said, so, um, I think Alabama is going to win that one. So they're next at number six, A&M. I think they have a 34% chance. I know it's higher than the number 15, but look, um, they beat Florida.
00:20:15
Speaker
But they lost Savannah. So those one lost teams that don't make the conference championship, they're probably not going to make it. That's why I don't have them at like 50%. So I think I just don't think A and&M can do it because they're not going to make the conference championship. It's like a 99.9% chance. Alabama is not going to lose twice, probably. So I mean, A&M can hope that Alabama loses twice, but it's not really going to happen.
00:20:43
Speaker
And also A&M has a tough schedule now. I mean, Tennessee's under looked, you know, you can't look past them. Ole Miss is under looked too. So, you know, who knows? Anyways, at number seven, Cincinnati, 12%. Desmond Ritter's done great. The whole team's done great. The defense has done great. They just, if they beat Tulsa in the conference championship or whoever they play, probably Tulsa,
00:21:11
Speaker
Um, they have a small chance, but you know, I still don't think they'll make it even if they'd be Tulsa. Anyways, number eight, Georgia, 5%. Why? Because they already have two losses. If you're a two loss team, you basically have no chance. Miami. I think they have a 6% chance at number nine. Why? Because they're a two loss team as well.
00:21:36
Speaker
Look, these two lost teams, two lost teams, they're not going to be able to do too much. I think that maybe some can do something, but it's just going to be tough. You know, a team that has lost against, you know, a team that's lost against Clemson and um you know, it's just not going to work. OK, I just don't see how they would. Plus, they're probably going to lose against North Carolina. Actually, there are one last team right now.
00:22:06
Speaker
But I still just don't see how it's going to happen. um Notre Dame and so Clemson is ahead of them, and if they don't make the caught in the conference championship, it's not going to end up working out. um So next at number 10, Indiana, a 19% chance. um There's an explanation explanation to this. First, Indiana.
00:22:32
Speaker
um can easily make the conference championship. There's only one team, I think there's only one team left in that conference that still has not lost a game and that's Ohio State.
Indiana, Iowa State, Oklahoma & Oregon: Long Shots?
00:22:42
Speaker
And Indiana clearly could beat them. I think if they rematch in the big 10 championship, I believe that Indiana either will win or make it a very close, very close game. So look, Indiana is currently second in the big 10 East.
00:23:03
Speaker
So actually, they're going to have to hope that Ohio State loses twice, which is actually no way. They're going to have to hope that Ohio State has one canceled game. It's all they can hope for. If Ohio State gets one more canceled game, then they're out. They're not going to do anything. So that's also what some teams have to hope for Wisconsin that they miss one more game. So that's just what you have to hope for if you're Indiana. If that happens,
00:23:32
Speaker
Congrats, because you can um win the big 10 championship. Next at 11, I have Iowa State and I think they have a 2% chance. Why? Because they have two losses. And that's exactly the same with number 12 Oklahoma, except they have a 1% chance because they lost to Iowa State.
00:23:54
Speaker
Number 13 BYU they have a 22% chance because they're still undefeated. I know they don't have a conference So it's gonna be a little bit tougher. That's why they're that low Number 14, Wisconsin, they have a 5% chance because they game. They still have a small chance um To make the big 10 championship. So if they do And they win they have a They have a bigger chance. um Number 15, we have Northwestern. I believe they have a 1% chance. I know they only have one loss. I know they beat Wisconsin, which is a pretty big win, but I just like, look, Northwestern lost to Michigan State. That's all I have to tell you to convince you that they're not going to make it because they lost to Michigan State. Look, Michigan State is not a great team like they're like we're used to seeing them.
00:24:48
Speaker
It's that simple, so it's it's just just not gonna happen. Number 16, we USC. I think they have a 1% chance. It's because they have no big wins and their wins are against small teams and they win by barely any points. Number 17, Crystal Carolina. I believe they have a 1% chance. Look, they're a very good undefeated team, but the only problem, they have no strength of schedule.
00:25:19
Speaker
and they just have no strength of schedule. In the conference championship, like, who are you gonna play that's gonna convince the committee? Like, that's that's the question. Like, L.A. Lafayette? ah lot Louisiana, is that gonna do anything? Because, look, playing Louisiana is not gonna do anything. oh Anyways, so,
00:25:46
Speaker
Here we are. Okay, number 18, Oklahoma State. I believe they have a 0% chance to make the college football playoff. Why? Because they've lost two games and they lost to and to a possibly will be unranked team in Texas and Oklahoma, they they didn't even make it a close game. They got smacked. So I just don't think they have a chance.
00:26:12
Speaker
um Number 19, Marshall. I think they have a 3% chance. Look, they're undefeated, but it's the same story as Coastal Carolina. I just don't think they, like, who are you going to play in the conference championship that will convince the committee? Like UTSA? University of Texas at San Antonio? That's not going to do anything.
00:26:36
Speaker
um So next, at number 20, the last one, Oregon. I think they have no chance as it is Oklahoma State because they lost to Oregon State, which just destroys it all. Thank you so much for listening to this episode of Eli Studio Sports. We will see you in the next episode.