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Will turkey remain the Thanksgiving protein of choice?
443 Plays27 days ago
Brian Earnest, an animal protein economist with CoBank, shares his thoughts (and his favorite side dish) about the future of the turkey tradition on Thanksgiving.
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Transcript
Podcast Introduction
00:00:00
Speaker
Hello and welcome to the Future of Poultry podcast series.
Guest Introduction: Brian Ernst
00:00:12
Speaker
Hello, I'm Elizabeth Duffman, the editor of Watt Poultry USA and Poultry Future. In today's episode, my guest is Brian Ernst, animal protein economist at Cobank. Brian recently published a report that examined how a growing demand for convenience, longer term pressure on turkey supplies, and increasing competition from beef and pork marketers may be impacting Turkey's position as a Thanksgiving favorite. Thanks for joining me today, Brian.
00:00:40
Speaker
Well, it's my pleasure. Glad to be with you.
Consumer Mindset and Industry Trends
00:00:42
Speaker
What would you like the poultry industry to take away from this report? Well, I think the the big high level thing is for poultry in general and specifically the turkey producers, we've got a consumer that is has a changing mindset and thinking about product offerings and what's available for the consumer may have upstream impact. and so you know I think this is is an evolution over time that needs a little bit more attention maybe than what we're thinking about. So that maybe at the high level is something that is of interest to me and that you know I've ah dug into a little bit deeper to to try and figure out what the opportunity is and shed some light maybe on some of the challenges that I've been seeing over
Decline in Turkey Sales
00:01:26
Speaker
the years. What factors are responsible for the declining sales of whole turkeys during the holiday season?
00:01:32
Speaker
Well, I think if we think about positioning for a whole turkeys and the turkey meat industry in general, you know, sometimes consumers are only really thinking about cooking turkey one time a year, right? It's a Thanksgiving. That in and of itself, if you don't get that one experience a year, it's contributed to some of the decline in consumption that we've seen over years. I think back to kind of what I you know, started looking at the poultry industry maybe 15 years ago. And you know, at that time, that really was the offering for Thanksgiving. Over the years, we've seen some of the market fluctuations, somewhat tied to bird flu, you know, a somewhat tried to COVID-19 pandemic, I think all have
00:02:12
Speaker
have really put more flexibility on the plate of the consumer for Thanksgiving. So I would say that in and of itself of of consumers just thinking about, well, you know, I can have something else on the table, maybe to accompany Turkey, and then maybe it may be a replacement item in the future, especially if the retailer is showing an attractive offering on something like a ham for
Industry Strategies for Turkey Promotion
00:02:35
Speaker
Thanksgiving. You know, there's more flexibility built in. And then if we go beyond that, thinking about how many place settings are at the dinner table for Thanksgiving, you know, to celebrate the feast. I think that has shrunk over time. You know, that we've got fewer folks in those big family gatherings.
00:02:52
Speaker
suggests that maybe we want a smaller center of the plate offering than those big turkeys that we had 20 years ago. So there's a couple different factors that I think play into what is more flexibility on the the table for for Thanksgiving now. Is there anything the turkey industry can do or should be doing to prevent this from becoming the new norm or to drive more turkey sales throughout the rest of the year?
Marketing Innovations in Turkey Products
00:03:14
Speaker
It's a very good question. There's some things that the industry is already doing that I find really creative. if You think back a couple of years ago, we saw deep fryers. I think Butterball had these that kind of went along with the turkey sales. And that's just helping with the mindset of the consumer of them asking, how do I.
00:03:32
Speaker
How do I cook this item? you know and they emit For some, it may be the first time they've ever cooked a whole turkey. So those sort of things to promote around the holiday season, I think you know are both creative and very valuable for the consumer. When I get outside of that, of thinking about where are their marketing opportunities, it could be along the same lines. I saw a quote earlier this year in a publication that there are more consumers that have an air fryer in their household today than a coffee maker in the US.
00:04:01
Speaker
and it would be an advantage for the turkey industry to have a product that really speaks to that convenience offering. You know, thinking about an air fryer, those sort of instructions on the package of something like a turkey tender that's already been power fried or something like that. These sort of things, I think that's some of the creativity that we're seeing in the chicken industry in terms of marketing that lends itself to turkeys if if we can get there. I know we use our air fryer at home more than we use our coffee baker for sure. and At
Personal Touch: Thanksgiving Favorites
00:04:29
Speaker
what? Obviously, the turkeys, the centerpiece of any of our Thanksgiving meals, but you can't really talk about Thanksgiving without thinking about sides. So what's your favorite Thanksgiving side? Oh, that's a good one. I like dressing and bacon has to be on there. So blend that to what you will. But it's one of those staples that has to be on the table. No, that sounds delicious. Is there anything else that you'd like to add before we conclude this podcast?
Challenges Facing Turkey Producers
00:04:53
Speaker
Just thinking about the producer themselves, they've been through
00:04:56
Speaker
a plethora of challenges over the last five, 10 years. And it's easy to kind of come up with ideas around the consumer and and a changing consumer and and say, hey, we should implement this and and it will solve all the problems. But I think the producer has had hurdles of higher feed costs over the last three, four years. And bird flu with high pathogenic avian influenza, you know all of these things have contributed to an environment that's much more difficult for the producer than it was 10 years ago. and And as we're preparing for Thanksgiving, just thinking about the producers and being thankful for what they offer is something that I guess, if anything, I could add to this conversation, it's there. Just thankful for those producers this year. What a great sentiment.
Conclusion and Call to Action
00:05:42
Speaker
Thanks again, Brian, and thanks to you for tuning in. For more episodes of the Future of Poultry podcast, please like and subscribe on whatpoultry.com or wherever you access podcasts.