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Foul Trouble, Disgraceful Officiating, But Still a 5th Straight Sweet 16 for Houston!!!
122 Plays1 year ago
Welcome to Episode 23 of the No Conference for Old Men Podcast.
The Cougars are now 32-4, after overcoming some one-sided officiating & 4 starters fouling out to beat Texas A&M 100-95 in OT! This was a complete team effort, where the entire roster had to dig in & contribute to pull out the win. That included key contributions by Ramon Walker (who we all thought was lost for the season) & walk-on Ryan Elvin. It was truly just "survive and advance", and that now allows us to play our 2nd weekend games within the state of Texas in Dallas!
So we'll begin this Sweet 16 episode with some thoughts on the 1st 2 games of the tourney, focusing primarily on the A&M one. Then provide a preview of the Duke Sweet 16 matchup, while keeping an eye on potential opponents in a possible Elite 8 battle. And we'll wrap up with a re-projection of our brackets w/ the Final 16 teams left.
- No Conference for Old Men is available for free via Spotify / Apple Podcast / SoundCloud & the GoCoogs.com website; we're also available via the Republic of Football Podcast feed from the folks at Dave Campbell's Texas Football as their only basketball-centric offering
- Intro / Exit music: Ground Zero provided by FreeBeats.io
- Please follow us on https://gocoogs.com/old-men/
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Transcript
Introduction to No Conference for Old Men
00:00:01
Speaker
you
00:00:07
Speaker
Welcome, folks, to the 23rd episode of No Conference for Old Men, the podcast where three old guys are talking Houston Cougars basketball with a bit of Big 12 coverage added in as well, and proud members of the gocoups.com network, the undisputed number one Houston Cougars content provider.
Houston Cougars vs A&M Recap
00:00:24
Speaker
Our Houston Cougars are now 32 and 4 and into the Sweet 16 for the fifth straight year after surviving yet another furious comeback attempt by A&M in our second time around playing them this year.
00:00:36
Speaker
Lots of fans were fearful of the matchup with A&M, especially after all the injuries on our roster with our bigs. I was not one of them, but in retrospect, I think the fans were apparently correct in those fears. Four of our starters fouled out, yet we still pulled out the win in overtime 100 to 95, with even walk on Ryan Elvin hitting a key free throw near
NCAA Tournament Overview
00:00:58
Speaker
the end. But we'll get into that a little bit later on in the podcast. But the bottom line was we survived and advanced.
00:01:06
Speaker
And again, all three of us are back with Tom Lydiak, former coach, Bill Walker, former player, and myself, Steve Chang, analytics guy for this episode. So we'll begin by summarizing first two rounds of the NCAA tournament, providing obviously a little bit more detailed view into the A&M game, forecast our Sweet 16 matchup versus Duke, then maybe a brief forecast of who we believe the winner will play in the Elite Eight.
00:01:31
Speaker
Provide comments on how our brackets have fared thus far and share our re-forecast of the Sweet 16 through championship winner. Okay, let's get into it,
NCAA Tournament Highlights
00:01:41
Speaker
guys. We breeze through Longwood and then engaged in an epic battle with a rematch with A&M. How about just two quick tidbits on the Longwood win and then go straight into your assessment of the A&M win? Tom, why don't you kick things off with your coach's thoughts on our first two rounds in the NCAA tourney?
00:02:00
Speaker
Longwood, I think we double him up. It was like 86 to 43, I believe it was. I think the big story was getting back Ramon Walker from that tournament is cause I was one who thought he would never come back. And I know Chris Baldwin had put some stuff on social media that it was, you know, it was possible for him to come back. And I was negative about that. I was thinking no way, but here he is came back and got some playing time in the, in the Longwood game.
00:02:29
Speaker
The other story was Juwan coming down and limping again. I think he was limited. I can't remember how many minutes it was. It wasn't a whole lot. And then, you know, Ryan gets in the game. Ryan Elvin actually played over six minutes in the game and scored five points. And I was thinking, you know, that that's a great memory for him. Unbeknownst that there were bigger things for Ryan just coming.
00:02:54
Speaker
two days later. So, you know, we took care of business and got out of that game with, uh, really no major injuries except for the little tweak to Juan. So another workman like performance by the Cougs.
Game Analysis: A&M Challenges and Resilience
00:03:08
Speaker
And how about you keep going with the A&M game, Tom? A&M game. It was kind of like the first time we played them, you know, what we have biggest lead was, was 13 points. A lot of fouls were calling the game A&M.
00:03:24
Speaker
Missed a whole lot of free throws. We gave up a lot of offensive rebounds again, but bottom line is, I think it was just like the OU game. You know how many people thought we could win a game like 88, 86 or whatever it was in the OU game. If somebody would have said A&M was going to score 95 points and granted it was an overtime, you know, I would say, hey, it's a loss, but.
00:03:46
Speaker
That's probably the guttiest performance I've ever seen in my 50-something years of watching college basketball. There's no other team in the country that could have won that game in overtime like the Houston Cougars did. Four guys fell out. I think Jamal fell out with like 18 seconds left. And Kelvin had to put in Ryan Elvin.
00:04:09
Speaker
Like I said, gutty performance, culture, whatever you want to call it. Our culture was personified in that game. How about you, Bill? Okay. Longwood. I mean, this was an ideal game.
00:04:26
Speaker
No starters reached 30 minutes. We shot 58.5% from the field, 48% from three. Don and Wilson played well off the bench. They each played 23 minutes. We forced 18 turnovers. We held them to 34% shooting. Ryan Alvin outscored three of their starters.
00:04:45
Speaker
We created 12 steals. We held them under their Las Vegas total of 51 points. Said had three blocks, but clearly dwarfing everything was the fact that Ramon came back and played and looked good, played aggressively, and he's available going forward.
Duke Preview and Predictions
00:05:01
Speaker
So nice win there.
00:05:03
Speaker
A&M. God, what a crazy game. I mean, if you're an adrenaline junkie, this was the game for you. And it's all sorts of comments about people not being able to go to sleep last night after the game. And yeah, I completely understand.
00:05:20
Speaker
I was kind of stunned when TCU got off 73 shots against us in the Big 12 tournament, and then A&M gets off 75 last night. I was also stunned at all the fouls that were called when we were at home against UCF and Oklahoma State, letting both of them back into the game.
00:05:41
Speaker
But my God, four out of five starters foul out. And the fifth starter, Juwan, played over nine minutes, the five minutes of overtime and over four minutes in regulation after picking up the fourth foul. Incredible. I've just never seen anything like that. It's just unbelievable.
00:06:03
Speaker
I actually talked to, because there was so much of the people I was with, including myself, everyone was furious with the officials, but it ended up being 28, 24 in terms of fouls. And so I talked to some people who are not U of A fans. That was misleading though. Well, I wanted to ask them, I wanted to get some input from someone who is non-biased and every single one of them, not one person said that,
00:06:29
Speaker
the officiating was down the middle or anything other than the fact that U of H really kind of was getting the short end of the stick from the officials. And like I said, I don't want to come on and bitch about the officiating, but
00:06:45
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The people have no affiliation with U of H. We're like, geez, you guys were really getting the short end of the stick with the calls. And I mean, yeah, we, we lose four out of five starters and we virtually lose five. You know, it's crazy. I mean, it was a, an extremely physical game played by two extremely athletic and aggressive teams, but I mean, you know, 52 fouls is a little ridiculous.
00:07:15
Speaker
I hope this crew is done officiating for the year. Yeah. Yeah. In terms of the game, you know, Roberts went six for six, didn't shoot a lot, but he, he hit all his shots, scored 13 points, had eight boards.
00:07:30
Speaker
But this game was really won by our guards. Cryer was cold early, but he stepped up in the second half. He scored 20 forces, three boards before following out. Sharp was absolutely key for us the entire game. 30 points, seven of 14 threes, three boards, two steals before following out.
00:07:51
Speaker
Wilson came off the bench, scored nine, pulled down six boards as he does in virtually every game. He defended their guards well, but the star clearly was shed, is often the case. I mean, 21 points, tenuses, five boards. He forced Wade Taylor into going five of 26 from the field, three of 13 from three. You know, a far cry from his 28 point second half versus us back in mid December. Cryer came up big and
00:08:19
Speaker
OT before he fouled out. And then Shedd continued getting the ball to people. Shedd hit a big shot, proved why he's almost assuredly going to come in second place to produce Zach Edie and Player of the Year voting. We were out rebounded by a really good rebounding team. The number one
00:08:42
Speaker
offensive rebounding team in the nation, 49-35, 26-11 on the offensive boards. But the thing is, we're not going to see those types of players, that type of team when we go up against Duke or NC State or Marquette or any team in the Midwest as well. We got through it and like you said, we survived in advance. We'll be able to rest until Friday and I think we're looking really good heading into the weekend.
00:09:11
Speaker
Nice. So I know you didn't want to complain about the officiating. I'm actually going to get into it a little bit. Good. Yeah. About those three refs. They're all advancing to the next round. I saw as well. Yeah. Some thoughts on those a little bit later in my assessment here, but you know, quickly from a round one perspective, Longwood was just completely overmatched from beginning to end. As you guys stated.
00:09:41
Speaker
It was no competition from the very get-go. We limited them to under 38% effective field goal percentage, turnovers on almost 30% of their possessions, and blocked 18% of their two-point shots. While on offense, we were at a blistering 69% effective field goal percentage.
00:09:59
Speaker
Best thing that could have happened where Roberts only played the first half, and as you highlighted, no other starter hit 30 minutes, allowing everyone to be rested while back has played a lot, which would end up being key in our A&M win.
00:10:16
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for the
Officiating and Key Player Performances
00:10:17
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Texas A&M game, an epic game that will go down as one of our most all-time best wins given the circumstances. I predicted on Goku's.com that this would be a 12-point win for us, and we'd limit them to under 43% effective field goal percentage, which looked great at the two-minute mark in regulation.
00:10:38
Speaker
This was a nip-tuck game for the entire first half with us just ahead leading 43-38 at the half. We then slowly pulled away in the second half until we were up 12 with just under two minutes to go. The real story to me, unfortunately, was how poorly officiated this game was. Where it ended up actually shaping this game into the epic one that it became,
00:11:01
Speaker
52 fouls called total for such a physical game on both sides. Calls were very one-sided until A&M was forced to foul towards the end of both regulation and overtime. As stated by both of you, four of our starters fouled out. A few key ref misses I will highlight that were particularly egregious. I mean, Francis' fourth foul underneath the basket when four players were jockeying for position, and it was either
00:11:29
Speaker
actually Wilson or one of their own players that pushed Radford at the 848 mark in regulation. That was just a terrible call. No foul called right on pushing choir out of bounds at the one minute 14 mark as well as he was trying to bring the ball up. A moving screen by Garcia to keep Wilson from getting to Taylor's three at the 112 mark.
00:11:55
Speaker
And then, you know, LJ choir's last foul when it was a clean block of Taylor's three at the 56 second mark towards the end. And then that terrible Phantom jump ball called when Malik Wilson solely had the rebound at the one second mark that gave them a chance at the miracle three descended in overtime. Then into overtime sheds final Tiki tack foul at the 18 second mark. I mean, the refs did everything they could.
00:12:25
Speaker
to basically advance the SEC team, quite honestly. One note for fans, in the two games that UH got called for the most foul during the regular season, Lee Castle was a ref at Xavier and Jeb Hartness was at TCU. Those were the worst calls games during the regular season.
00:12:44
Speaker
Yesterday versus A&M, both of them were part of the referee officials. Both of them, as Tom had mentioned, have made it to the Sweet 16 as part of the refereeing crew. I just hope we get neither one of them in our games moving forward. Yeah. Send them east. Oh my God. Let Denny Hurley deal with them. Yeah, exactly. Exactly. I mean, it was hard to pinpoint the star of the game since everyone, including Ryan Elvin, contributed big time.
00:13:12
Speaker
Ken Palm highlighted Sharp as the MVP of the game for UH, which is really hard to argue with the 30 points as you had highlighted, Bill 7 of 14 from 3, 3 rebounds, 1 block, 2 steals for the game. He's a player of box score plus minus plus 18.6, way beyond anyone on either team.
00:13:34
Speaker
But we've all talked about wanting that game where all three of our guards had a big offensive game Well, we got it at the most critical time choir who started slow ended up with 20 points as you highlighted Shed who had the play of the game with the offensive rebound Two-handed putback dunk at the 12 25 mark of the second half had 21 points five rebounds 10 assists
00:13:59
Speaker
Unfortunately, Francis only played 19 minutes before fouling out. And man, we just need him in the game more because he disrupts things inside and he had five blocks for the game in only 19 minutes.
00:14:12
Speaker
But boy, Ramon Walker came up huge in overtime. He checks in after Sharp fouls out in overtime, hadn't played at all yet this game. Comes in confident and aggressive, grabs a huge defensive rebound at the 2.51 mark in OT. Then another offensive rebound and put back at the 1.11 mark. Then, of course, Ryan Elvin with his free throw near the end after Shed fouled out.
00:14:38
Speaker
And that was just the final cherry on top. Epic win that will never be forgotten in Houston Cougar's lore. Now from an advanced analytics perspective on offense, we played a stellar game, best game for our victory guards in the same game all season. And given the situation in a tight NCAA game against the hated Aggies, it was extremely timely. Our effective field goal percentage was a staggering 60%.
00:15:04
Speaker
which is even better than our 52.3% versus KU to end the season. Again, we continue to protect the ball extremely well with turnover percentage at 12.6% which bettered our standard for the season. And our offensive rebound was actually decent given how tough a rebounding team A&M is.
00:15:24
Speaker
On D, we just found a way to get enough stops. I predicted we'd keep them under 43% effective field goal percentage, and it was looking great again until towards the end. But even for the whole game, A&M still only shot a dismal 44% effective field goal percentage, which is right at our standard.
00:15:44
Speaker
for the year and only 40% from two-point rage. We also blocked 15.4% of their two-point shots at standard and altered a ton more, especially when Francis was in. We only forced turnovers on 12.6% of their possessions, which isn't to our standard. But the new stat that I will introduce today, which I have not emphasized to this point, is a stat that they call free throw percentage defense.
00:16:11
Speaker
It's actually a major advanced analytics stat that Ken Palm emphasizes that I've really dismissed up to this point. However, after a full season of watching, the take is that we exhaust our opponents during the game, so much so that it impacts their ability to hit their free throws at their normal rates. And A&M shot a dismal 64.4% from the line. And that's just slightly below our number seventh ranked
00:16:41
Speaker
Free throw percentage D of 67.5%. Our
In-depth Duke Game Analysis
00:16:45
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main issue on D was keeping them off the offensive rebounds where they got 53% of their misses, which is what allowed them to make a game of it. But again, survive in advance. Now it's on to the Sweet 16 versus Blue Blood Duke. It's who we all wanted. So here we are. Bill, once you kick things off on this one, what are your thoughts on the upcoming Duke game this Friday?
00:17:11
Speaker
Well, I didn't want Duke, I wanted Vermont. But that aside, Duke is 26 and eight right now. They came in second in the ACC. They're one of three teams in what I've referred to over and over as an overrated ACC, one of three teams that have made it to the Sweet 16. But if you look at the draws for Duke, Carolina, and Clemson, the draws
00:17:39
Speaker
have set up pretty well for all three. Duke finished out ACC play winning by 15 at NC State and losing by five at home versus Carolina. And then they lost by five to NC State in the ACC tournament before beating number 13 seed Vermont by 17, followed by a 38 point demolition
00:18:02
Speaker
of number 12, James Madison. U of H is going to be a different story and a massive leap up in talent. As an aside, and you guys know this, prior to last season, we had a, and I'm saying this with air quotes, a secret scrimmage because everyone knew about it, knows about it.
00:18:24
Speaker
at U of H versus Duke. And because of the fact that we were beating them so badly, not only score-wise, but physically, they shut down the scrimmage and they're not a physical team. One other thing that was mentioned to me, my good friend, Luis Puente, it was that Duke has not beaten a higher seed, and thank you again, Luis, in 30 years
00:18:50
Speaker
This goes back to 94 when they were a two seed and they beat Purdue and Glenn Robinson. Since then they have not beaten a higher seed.
00:19:01
Speaker
Not that I want to jinx us in any way, but quite honestly, I don't think that statistic will even matter. It'll continue the streak. In that blowout of James Madison, they really only played seven players until late in the game. They shot 52% from the field, 50% from three, including 30 points from their 6-3 freshman, Jared McCain, who went 10 of 15 from the field, 8 of 11 from three.
00:19:30
Speaker
But we'll take a look at Duke for the entire season. Their best player is Kyle Filipowski. He's listed at seven feet, 16.6 and 8.2 boards per game, 1.2 steals, 1.6 blocks, all team highs, 51% from the field and 35% from three.
00:19:51
Speaker
He'll be a tough matchup. Uh, Mark Mitchell's there other starting front court forward, six, nine, 12 points, six boards, 54% from the field. He'll be shooting inside the aforementioned Jared McCain, six, three, he scored 14 points during the year, five boards, but 46 and a half percent from the field, 41 and a half percent from three. And they brought him in. He's a freshman. They brought him in as a shooter.
00:20:21
Speaker
Jeremy Roach is their point guard. That's who Shadow play. 14 points, three boards, 48% and 44% from three. And then Tyrese Proctor, another guard, 6'5", 11 points, four assists. He's an OK shooter, not especially good. Short of fouls, these five will be playing the entire game for Duke. These five play a ton of minutes.
00:20:49
Speaker
They just don't have a whole lot off the bench. They score 80 a game, Duke, they give up 66 and a half. So they're strong both offensively and defensively, which, which you'd expect from team in the sweet 16. All their losses this year have been by single digits. They've not had a double digit loss yet.
00:21:09
Speaker
They said they're a very good perimeter shooting team, but they're really only OK athletically. They're not that physical. And assuming fouls are not an issue.
00:21:20
Speaker
They're nowhere close to being as athletic as we just faced with A&M. We should be okay to get the, get off shots. We'll be able to rebound effectively. And I see us winning this game 76 62. Wow. So their first double-digit. Well, we're by far the best team they've played this year. Yeah, I would agree with that. Yeah.
00:21:46
Speaker
So I know you did a bit of homework on potential next round opponents too. You want to provide an overview of those two teams as well? Yeah, sure. I could jump into them right now.
00:21:59
Speaker
Once we beat Duke, we play the winner of NC State and Marquette. NC State, the 11th seed, who is upset a couple of teams, including Texas Tech and then Marquette, the two seed in our region. State came in 10th in the ACC and they're only in because they won the ACC tournament. Like I said, they.
00:22:21
Speaker
beat Tech by 13, and then they beat number 14 Oakland by 6 in overtime. They're an OK offensive team. They're kind of a mediocre defensive team, especially based on who's left in the tournament. They score 76.5 points a game. They give up 72.5. They're a fair shooting team, 45% from the field, 35% from 3. Not a great rebounding team, and they do turn the ball over.
00:22:47
Speaker
Their best player is 6-1 DJ Horn, 17 points. He shoots 44% from the field, 40% from 3. And it's just crazy with the potential of either, well, not the potential, but once we beat Duke, either NC State or Marquette.
00:23:06
Speaker
It's going to be the best player on both teams is the point guard. So it's going to be more hard work for shed, but that also means trouble for the opposing point guard. Exactly. Casey Morell is a two guard. He scores 12 points a game. He's not a very good shooter. He's a strong guy. He'll play sharp.
00:23:27
Speaker
Michael O'Connell is a 6-2 guard. He can kind of play the point. I'm sure Cryo will probably play him. He leads them in assists, but it's only like a little over three. The guy that everyone's been following with NC State is DJ Burns.
00:23:44
Speaker
He's listed at 6.9 and 275. To me, he looks more like about maybe 6.7, 6.8, maybe 6.9, but I'd change that two to a three. I mean, he is enormous.
00:23:59
Speaker
Well, that said, I mean, 13 points, only four boards, but he does average three assists, a couple of turnovers a game, and he shoots 53% from the field. He could pass the ball well. He's actually got reasonably quick feet. He does. I'm amazed at how well he moves.
00:24:16
Speaker
But the thing is, when he gets double teamed, he can make good passes, but he can also throw the ball away. And so when we double him, which we will do, he's going to turn the ball over. And then the other guy that starts and has been good is Mohammad Diara, 6'10", forward. He leads him with eight boards, shoots 49% from the field, 34% from three. He could step up. He's a good athletic player.
00:24:46
Speaker
Shed's going to battle Horn, and I like that matchup for us. Sharp will outplay, Marcel, Juann and Javier will match up well with Burns, Diara, and then they've got a guy, Middlebrooks, who comes off the bench when Burns needs to go and, you know, hit the oxygen tank.
00:25:07
Speaker
They've had a nice run, but it's probably going to end against Marquette. It will absolutely end if they play us.
Team Strategy and Potential Opponents
00:25:14
Speaker
If it is them, I see us beating them 74 57 Marquette on the other hand, 27 and nine, you know, they tied for second in the big East. Right now they've beaten number 15, Western Kentucky by 18. They beat number 10, Colorado yesterday only.
00:25:31
Speaker
by four points, 8177. They only played six players against Colorado, which was interesting. They're a good team as well at both ends of the floor, no surprise, but they're not that big and they're not a great rebounding team and that will play into our hands. Duke, NC State and Marquette all start three guards, which I think also benefits us. You know, Marquette
00:25:57
Speaker
Early in the year, they took apart Kansas, they crushed Texas and they lost to Purdue and Hawaii by three points. So they're, they're a good team. They deserve their two ranking. They play an up-tempo game. So, you know, if we protect the ball and we rebound well, especially on the offensive end, we're going to make things really hard for them in terms of getting out in transition.
00:26:22
Speaker
They're led by Tyler Kolek. We've talked about him before. We've compared him to shed. We all know that sheds the better player. Kolek came back recently from injury.
00:26:32
Speaker
He missed the end of the season, missed the Big East tournament and is back for the NCAA's. He scores a little over 15 points, five boards, eight assists, three turnovers, 50% from the field, 40% from, and the media loves him. Their leading score is almost at about 18 a game is Cam Jones. He's a 6-5-2 guard, 50% from the field, 41% from three, he will score. He is a good player. I'll just mention two others.
00:27:02
Speaker
Also, Iguodaro, 611 forward, 14 points, seven boards, three assists, but he also turns the ball over.
00:27:13
Speaker
He's a pretty athletic and talented big guy. And then David Joplin, a 6'8 forward, who only scores 11 points, four boards. But he's really come on lately. He started shooting well from three. He only shot 42% from the floor and 37% from three during the year, which isn't bad. But he's been shooting well in the postseason. So
00:27:37
Speaker
This is an athletic team, but they're not overly physical, especially inside the match up for everyone is going to be Colette versus Jamal. And the thing that killed Colorado was that Colette is left handed. They could not keep him from going left, which I just could not understand. But we keep him from going left. He's limited.
00:28:04
Speaker
He's also slow defensively and they can often put him on another guard or even a small forward. But in this case, it's where do you put him if he's not on shed? Are you going to run him through a myriad of picks trying to chase Cryer? Are you going to have him play against a much more physical Emmanuel Sharp?
00:28:24
Speaker
Absolutely not. So he's going to play against Shedd and Shedd can just take advantage of him off the dribble, you know, get to the hoop and create for himself, or he can lay the ball off to Juwan, he can put the ball up for Ali, he can kick it to the other guards, to Sharpe or Cryer. If we defend Colek well, we defend Jones, and I think Emmanuel is probably
00:28:52
Speaker
going to have that task, but it's, but it'll also be Wilson. We play well against Jones. We play well against Colek and we, we defend guards. Well, we're going to win this game. We're absolutely going to win this game. I have us winning 77 66. Okay. Tom, from a coach's perspective, what are your thoughts on the Duke game? And if you've got any thoughts on the next round, Elite eight game as well, why don't you share them with the listeners?
00:29:20
Speaker
U of H do game. We win U of H wins simply because we're the tougher team. Duke's talented, but they're soft. You know, we know about the scrimmage and we can, we can kind of figure out why the scrimmage was halted with like 12 minutes left. Also, we're not going to lose to a guy who paints his fingernails, Jared McCain. We're not, we're, no. We recruited him pretty hard.
00:29:48
Speaker
Yeah. And maybe that's why he did come to U of H and Kelvin is that Kelvin said, we, we ain't doing that shit. You know, exactly. You know, like Bill alluded to. Anytime we play teams where there's strengths of the guards, you know, we do pretty well because of our guards, you know, they got McCain and broach, but I think they're just, you know, the tougher teams going to win. We're the toughest team in the country. Duke had that whole court storming thing where they made a big deal about it. You know what?
00:30:18
Speaker
Larry Bird would have punched his way through that crowd. And John Shire up there is almost in tears and all this. And then they had another situation where, you know, Duke loses UNC on their home court and Shire goes over there and he's apologizing to some Duke students for losing while some Duke students are throwing water bottles at UNC. You know, it just to me that just screams soft. Yeah.
00:30:47
Speaker
We're not going to lose to a, to a team like that. I don't care how talented they are. NC state Marquette. I think Marquette wins. I think NC state's bubble is finally burst. I think you just simply put Marquette's just a better team. Yeah. DJ burns really, really good. As you guys alluded to, you know, an offense, but if you ever watch them on defense in a pick and roll,
00:31:12
Speaker
It's hilarious. They play called drop coverage. What he does, he, he basically has his hands on his hips and he's resting. I love it. I'm serious. I, I sound like I'm joking, but they'll sit a ball screen and he's, he's in drop coverage and he's straight legged and he's resting. And if that's colic, you know, they'll.
00:31:38
Speaker
I say they dice them up. Hey, that's ACC basketball, right? Nice and soft. Nice. Yeah. You've got three in the sweet 16. Oh, I can't believe it. Cannot believe it. I can't either. I'm very disappointed with Baylor. I mean, it never bothers me when Baylor loses. But man, when you're representing the Big 12 to lose to Clemson, I cannot believe it. In that Baylor game, I heard,
00:32:07
Speaker
The announcers say something like Bridges was banged up. I didn't realize that he had some injury yet.
00:32:13
Speaker
You know, that's all, that's all the announcer said was, I mean, he just fell. I mean, he got hurt and he walked up and they took him off the court and I think he may have gone into the locker room, but then he was back on the court within about two, two, three minutes. I mean, it was really quick. I think it's because he changed his haircut. I didn't, you know, the first time he had his hair different.
00:32:37
Speaker
I was like, where is that? Where's he at? Well, he was on the court, but he kind of had a disappearing act, you know, last, last couple of games there. Cause, you know, when we played him, those guys were on fire offensively. And then, but you never know what's going to happen in March, madness.
00:32:58
Speaker
But getting back to the NC State Marquette game, yeah, Marquette's, I'm sure NC State's going to put up a fight. But in the end, Marquette's just a better team, and then going to set up a good matchup.
Final Four Predictions and Path to Championship
00:33:11
Speaker
One versus two seed, U of H Marquette, and I think we'll find a way to win that game too. Awesome. From an advanced analytics perspective, we're number two in Ken Palm, Duke is number six.
00:33:25
Speaker
If you look from an adjusted offensive efficiency perspective, we're now 14th in the country, while Duke is 19th in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the flip side, we're number two in adjusted defensive efficiency, while Duke is number five in adjusted offensive efficiency. On D, though Duke is ranked 19th,
00:33:47
Speaker
They don't do any one particular thing exceptionally well. No key defensive stat for Duke hits our threshold of great being in the top 40 in the country. Highest ranked D stat for them is offensive rebound, where they're ranked 55th in Kenpong.
00:34:03
Speaker
However, they do everything well on Duke with no glaring weaknesses, but it's not one that's going to bother us with pressure or blocking shots at the rim. So Duke can be had as shed continues his run on attacking the rim.
00:34:19
Speaker
and kicking the ball out to our three-point shooters. On offense, Duke is exceptional and will pose multiple challenges for our number two ranked D. They shoot the ball exceptionally well, ranking 18th in effective field goal percentage, according to Ken Palm, being equally adept at both three-point and two-point range. Duke also takes care of the ball, ranking 23rd in turnover percentage, and offensive rebound reasonably well, ranking 78th.
00:34:48
Speaker
Fortunately, unlike A&M, they don't take it hard to the rim for free throws, ranking 224th in free throws as a percentage of offense. So our bigs shouldn't face the kind of foul trouble we did versus A&M. Key for us will be playing very disciplined D, challenging every shot because we won't get many chances with turnovers. Ken Palm suggests a three-point win versus Duke.
00:35:13
Speaker
I believe it will actually be a little bit greater than that. They may be hot as of late, but I also believe that they haven't faced a defense like ours. I'm predicting a six point win, 75-69.
00:35:26
Speaker
Now if we figure a way to advance, I'm expecting to face Marquette. Won't get into as much detail here since it's one round out, but Marquette is very similar to Duke on offense. Great shooting team at number 15 in effective vehicle percentage, but
00:35:43
Speaker
As Bill had mentioned, they don't offensive rebound at all. On D, they rely on turning you over. They're ranked 20th in turnover percentage D, but are also not a great defensive rebounding team, ranking 278th. So it will give us an opportunity to feast on offensive rebounds. If we play Marquette,
00:36:04
Speaker
They're the one number two seed I wanted all along. A perfect matchup for us if we get the chance to advance and play Marquette. Ken Palm, if I'm doing the math correctly, would predict roughly a six-point win. I'm forecasting a bigger margin. Probably something around the 10-point win, 78-68. So next, let's revisit our sweet 16 projections. Who do you guys have left and who's gone? Also based on... That's not...
00:36:32
Speaker
Well, you don't have to go into the details But at the very least we should go through our new projections out with the 16 remaining teams Tom you want to go first? Yeah, I'll take the South first. I had actually had U of H play in Kentucky, I believe it was No, I had you I had you've ancient Duke
00:36:58
Speaker
And I had Kentucky playing Marquette and I had Kentucky advancing and U of H playing Kentucky. Midwest. I had Purdue and Tennessee. I had Gonzaga actually losing that first game. Who'd they play again? I can't remember. McNeese State, I think, right? Was it McNeese? Was it McNeese? Yeah. Yeah. I had McNeese winning and they got clobbered. So did I. Creighton and Tennessee, I think.
00:37:27
Speaker
I wasn't as bullish on Creighton as y'all were. I can't remember who I had beaten them, but I had Tennessee in there, and I can't remember the other team I had in there. Go the West. I had UNC and Arizona playing. I did not have Clemson. I think I had Baylor in that one, and UNC, I think I had UNC and BAM in there too with UNC winning. Going to the East, UConn,
00:37:55
Speaker
I had them facing Iowa State, but I didn't have Iowa State facing Illinois. I can't remember. BYU. I didn't have San Diego State making it this far either. Yeah. Okay. But how about with the new teams that have made it, what are your projections moving forward? Let's do a re projection for the Sweet 16. Okay. I'll go South U of H Marquette, U of H advancing Midwest.
00:38:24
Speaker
Purdue and Tennessee, I have Purdue advancing. I did all chalk, UNC Arizona in the West, UNC advancing, and then UConn Iowa State. I have UConn advancing, even though I'd like to see Iowa State, our Big 12 brethren, advance. But I think it's going to be a close game, but I think in the long run, UConn
00:38:46
Speaker
Just going to be a little bit too much for Iowa State. Okay, then how about in the final four? All the way to the final? Yeah, all the way to the final in winter. We beat Purdue and make it to the final. Yukon beats UNC and then we beat Yukon in the final and that's
00:39:07
Speaker
I went all chalk for the final four teams in the last episode. And then I had us, had us playing UConn in the final and that one too. And you have H1 just finding a way to
Podcast Conclusion and Support Information
00:39:18
Speaker
win. No rhyme or reason why I think they're going to win. But sometimes you have these seasons where when you win the championship, you know, you have to have certain things fall, fall in place and.
00:39:29
Speaker
I'm thinking it's, it's our turn. You know, we've had enough stuff in our athletic history that's never bounced right. And I think this is the time it, it finally goes the right way. Love it. How about you, Bill? Okay. Well, the East I had Yukon, I had Yukon, I had Iowa state beating BYU. And ultimately I had, I think I had Yukon over San Diego state and
00:39:58
Speaker
then I had Yukon over Iowa State. I'm really wavering on that going forward. In the West, oh, God, I mean, we could spend half an hour talking about all my misses here. I mean, my four teams in the West, I had Carolina losing to Grand Canyon. Oh,
00:40:20
Speaker
And I had New Mexico beating Nevada, both of whom lost in the first round. I had Nevada going to the final four. I'm sorry. I had New Mexico going to the final four, like I said, out in the first round. So disaster there. The South, of course, U of H beating Duke. And I had Marquette beating Tech, who of course lost in the first round. I did. I did not think Kentucky would go far.
00:40:51
Speaker
one of the rare things that I was on point with, but, uh, and then the Midwest, I had Purdue playing Gonzaga. I did like Gonzaga and I had, I did have Colorado state beating Tennessee. That's right. You, you guys love the mid mountain. Yeah. Yeah. I'll take, they didn't do so well. I'll take the credit and or the blame for that because yeah, I,
00:41:19
Speaker
Uh, I was all in the only, I think the only mountain West team I did not take was Utah state against TCU. And of course they blew them out. So yeah, I missed every mountain West team, but, uh, I have Gonzaga beating Purdue and I have Creighton beating Colorado state and then Creighton beating Gonzaga to go to the championship game.
00:41:46
Speaker
to redo it based on who's left. I have UConn over San Diego State in the East, 70-64. I have Iowa State, 77-67 over Illinois. And I think Connecticut, Iowa State is a one point game. I mean, I guess I'll stick with Connecticut because I originally picked them, but I'm really wavering on that. In the West,
00:42:13
Speaker
No more New Mexico, obviously. So we've got Clemson, Arizona. I have Clemson losing. I have Arizona beating them by 15. And I've got Carolina over Alabama, 92, 85. And then I've got Arizona over Carolina, 85, 78. Midwest. That's the Kaitlin Bull. Oh, that's right. Yeah. Yeah. Midwest. Like I said, I've got Gonzaga beating Purdue. Yep.
00:42:41
Speaker
I don't understand why everyone was so down on Gonzaga, but I've got them beating Purdue 80-69. Creighton, I've got beating Tennessee. Tennessee is a great defensive team, but I think Creighton can spread them out. Creighton 68-64. And then Gonzaga, Creighton, I think this is a coin flip as well. I'm going to stick with my original pick. I've got Creighton squeaking it out 78-76.
00:43:07
Speaker
I think I've mentioned all of these already, but U of H over Duke, 76-62, I think we win easily. Marquette over NC State, 74-68. U of H over Marquette, 77-68. I think, Steve, you said 78-68, so we're a point off. And so my final four would be U of H, Creighton, Iowa State,
00:43:31
Speaker
Arizona, and I've got U of H Connecticut and U of H winning. Nice. Love it. So for my March Madness brackets in the South, I missed on NC State. I think most folks did.
00:43:47
Speaker
which hurt me because I had Kentucky going to the Elite Eight versus us. In the Midwest, I missed on Purdue and the Zags, plus I have Creighton coming out. So a challenge there. In the East, I missed on San Diego State, so I'm still doing okay there. And finally in the West, I missed on Alabama and Clemson, but I still have UNC alive, and so that's still looking okay.
00:44:14
Speaker
Now to re-pick my suite 16, I would have, as we had already covered in the South, UH over Duke, Marquette over NC State, then UH over Marquette in the Midwest.
00:44:27
Speaker
I've got Purdue over the Zags, Creighton over Tennessee, and then Creighton over Purdue. In the East, I've got UConn over San Diego State, ISU over Illinois, and then ISU over UConn. Gonna stick with my Big 12 brethren here.
00:44:45
Speaker
I like it. West, I've got UNC over Bama, Arizona over Clemson, and then UNC over Arizona. Final four, UH over Creighton, and then UNC over UConn with a championship game of UH over UNC. So should be fun. Looking forward to it.
00:45:07
Speaker
So that's it for this episode 23 of the No Conference for Old Men podcast. Hope you all enjoyed it. And again, would really appreciate it if folks would follow, subscribe, or collect our podcast, depending on your podcast platform of choice. We are also available via the Republic of Football podcast feed from the folks at Dave Campbell's Texas Football as their only basketball-centric podcast. We're at the gokooks.com website for those that prefer to digest the content that way.
00:45:34
Speaker
We appreciate the continued support from all. Also, please give us a follow on our Twitter account. No conference for old men. Thank you all again for listening and be on the lookout for our final four episode next week, where we'll again try to publish it on Tuesday ahead of all the final four festivities. So please be on the lookout to download and listen as the episode drops. Take care, everyone.