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Coogs go 2-0 & are ranked #15, but are they still Nat'l Champ Contenders?
65 Plays5 months ago
Welcome to Episode #35 of the No Conference for Old Men Podcast.
Our Houston Cougars are 6-3 after a tough week of practice post-Vegas trip, with 2 thorough destructions of Butler in the XII/Big East Challenge and Troy. A Toledo team is up next, but the question of the week is "Is this iteration of the Houston Cougars Men's Basketball team still a legitimate National Title Contender 6 weeks into the season"? The reason this question was posed was because of the slew of social media postings this week stating that every National Champion since 2004 has been in the top 12 of the week 6 AP Poll.
Please have a listen as the 3 Old Men weigh in and discuss the merits of this stat, as well as provide some quick-hit game summaries and previews.
- No Conference for Old Men is available for free via Spotify / Apple Podcast / SoundCloud & the GoCoogs.com website; we're also available via the Republic of Football Podcast feed from the folks at Dave Campbell's Texas Football as their only basketball-centric offering
- Intro / Exit music: Ground Zero provided by FreeBeats.io
- Please follow us on gocoogs.com/old-men/
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Transcript
Introduction to Episode 35
00:00:08
Speaker
Welcome, folks, to episode number 35 of the No Conference for Old Men podcast. The podcast where three old guys are talking Houston Cougars basketball with a bit of Big 12 coverage added in as well.
Houston Cougars' Performance Overview
00:00:19
Speaker
And proud members of the gocougs.com network, the undisputed number one Houston Cougars content provider.
00:00:25
Speaker
Well, the kids clearly got the message after what must have been a really tough week of practice after the Vegas games. And what we got was a much more gritty and connected group, especially on D, these past two games. And one of the wins was a 79-51 dismantling of Butler in the Big 12 Big East Challenge. And we followed that up with a 62-42 win versus Troy last night.
00:00:48
Speaker
Both games were noticeable improvements, especially defensively. So we'll get into that shortly, as well as highlight maybe some minor adjustments we saw that Coach Sampson deployed. Also based on listener feedback, the new format we tried last week by including a topic for discussion as a third segment was a hit.
Success of Podcast's New Format
00:01:05
Speaker
So we're going to try to continue with this new, more abbreviated game summaries and previews and add a discussion topic moving forward.
00:01:15
Speaker
And today, we'll discuss a bunch of posts on social media that have highlighted how the national champion since 2004 has been in the top 12 of the sixth AP poll each season. And that sixth AP poll has just posted this week. In The Old Men, we'll discuss what that means or doesn't mean to our Cougars team. So let's get started.
Cougars' Defensive Strategies
00:01:37
Speaker
In looking at our two games this week, let's begin with the Butler game and then move to the Troy game.
00:01:42
Speaker
And why don't each of you cover both games during your segment? And why don't you go first, Tom? What were some of the recurring themes you saw from a coach's perspective in the Butler game and then the Troy game?
00:01:54
Speaker
Well, Stevie already mentioned it it was the on the defensive end. We came back from Vegas and I think we had six, seven probably probably practices. It was obvious from the tip, the first possession defensively that we were very active, you know feet were moving. We were contesting passes with the hands, blocking out even though Butler only sent one guy to the offensive boards.
00:02:15
Speaker
We did a you know really good job ah rebounding. We held Butler at 18 points in the first half, held Troy to 11. And there's always some people that will then complain about the offense. It's like we had ah we had two we had two masterpieces on defense and in those first halves. Kelvin will say you know somebody will point out the Bunyan on Miss America. and That's the kind of way I felt about some of the reactions to the game. Yeah, so true.
00:02:43
Speaker
A couple things that stood out to me, you know, the whole leadership thing that's been that's been thrown around and you know, Kelvin made some comments about we don't have that guy yet and all this and Kelvin has also said in the past, there's some years where you You might not have a whole lot of player leadership.
Coach Sampson's Influence
00:03:00
Speaker
And then he always said that that falls on him as the coach to be the lead, but that's not the greatest scenario because then the coach becomes, he's always the bad guy. So you have to have a few guys step up and am be leaders in a perfect world. Your whole roster would be full of leaders and holding each other accountable. That's in a theoretical world. I did notice a few things that Kelvin said after the Butler game.
00:03:22
Speaker
as far as, uh, pick and roll coverage. And also, uh, I don't know if you talked about monster in the post, but he was talking about keeping Telford in check. And he said he changed up the when and who to on the ball screens, you know, cause normally.
00:03:38
Speaker
We play the ball screen one way and one way only, you know, kind of like KFC, they do one thing chicken and that's it. You know, we, we kind of were the same way monster of the post, let's the pick and roll. Sometimes that's been leading to some open threes, but ah Kelvin didn't get two specifics and he said, he's not going to tell anybody, but he did say we change angle on some, you know, some of the coverages. And I think that's going to bode well for, for later on in conference play.
00:04:04
Speaker
And also in March Madness is that, you know, teams can't go in there and just expect the blitz right away. It's going to be coming at different times with different players. And, you know, only our guys know, you know, what we're going to do. So it'll probably be a little bit.
00:04:21
Speaker
harder to scout. But overall, excellent, excellent defensive effort. I kind of saw some guys step up that had maybe been a little bit of a disappointment in the first part of the year. And I'm sure Kelvin in those six or seven days got his message across ah very clear.
Player Performance Evaluations
00:04:38
Speaker
Yeah, Ryan Maso on Goku said mentioned that Kelvin's been on a razor for 15 days. but So I don't know.
00:04:47
Speaker
But, you know, Kelvins don't exert his will on the team and he's a Hall of Fame coach for a reason. He's know he's not going to let small things slip. And and so when you when you don't have practice, you you have s slippage. and Like in the Vegas, you know you know, you play in three games in five days and and you have the slippage. We're only going to play five games in December, so we're going to have a lot of practice in between each game. so Yeah, which is great. As an amateur, you know, what I like what I saw. OK, how about Troy? What do you think the Troy game?
00:05:17
Speaker
Uh, same, you know, Troy played a whole different kind of game defensively. They were more aggressive, you know, Butler's more of a position defense. They're not going to go out there and pressure the ball and try to get steals and and this and that Troy, Troy was a lot more aggressive. You know, they didn't take as much time off the clock. Uh, so it was a totally different game. Yeah, we could have been it better offensively, but when you hold a team to 11 points, uh, D one basketball and a half, it's almost like you don't even need to score in the second half.
00:05:46
Speaker
Yeah, no kidding. Hey, Tom, so, Bill and I were at the game together. One of the things that we noticed in these last two games and, you know, offline, the three of us have talked about Uzan and his adjustment to the team, especially on the defensive side where he's had his challenges trying to stay up.
00:06:07
Speaker
out of foul trouble trying to check the opposing team's point guard. And at least to my untrained eye, it looked like Coach Sampson made a shift where Oozan started guarding the third wing player. So really on the baseline. So where you had that baseline to protect one side defensively to keep them out of foul trouble. Did you notice that? What did you think about that?
00:06:29
Speaker
I did not notice, but you know we we basically start three guards.
Offensive and Defensive Analysis
00:06:34
Speaker
So you know you can kind of mix them up as as far as who who they guard. But as I was watching the game early, I didn't notice that. But it makes sense ah because Milos is so like getting in that foul trouble. We play a little bit differently defensively than he did under Porter Moser at Oklahoma. I think we put a little more pressure on the ball.
00:06:55
Speaker
we ask him to probably do a lot more things than he did at Oklahoma as far as accountability and this and that. You know, in Kelvin a couple of weeks ago, Luzon wasn't fouling it at all. Yeah, I know. You know, we foul here, son. Yeah. And then next couple of games, see he, he fouls out. He said, you know, he's probably a coachable kid because he, he did what coach asked him to do. Yeah. No kidding. That's awesome. How about you, Bill, from a player's perspective with the two games?
00:07:23
Speaker
Well, I predicted Butler to win. I'm sorry. I know that's i predicted us to beat Butler 8168. So I came reasonably close on the offense, ah scoring 79 points, nowhere close based on our suffocating defense. I actually heard from several sources that Las Vegas, not only this is kind of playing into what what you were talking about, Tom. and and ah Steve a little bit, provided Kelvin a lot of teaching and coaching opportunities. It also provided him the opportunity to serve wake-up calls to the team, to several of the players in particular. And I think Saturday's game not only proved that, but it certainly showed that the players accepted
00:08:11
Speaker
you know, everything from Calvin and certainly responded well to it. As per the norm so far this season, our our perimeter guys carried the offensive load and this game especially. Cryer, Uzan, Sharp, Arsenault, they scored 63 of the 79 points. This is a good shooting game. We shot 53% from the field, 50% from three. The front court Like I said, as, as kind of per the norm, didn't score really isn't scoring a whole lot. and And that can be attributed to several factors, you know, not just the big men themselves, but what they did do was hit the boards and and hit the boards hard. And they defended really well for a 41, 22 difference on the board was huge. Roberts coming off of Las Vegas was really active. He grabbed 12 boards for offensive. Tuggler pulled down eight.
00:09:06
Speaker
we We also, it like I mentioned defensively, we forced them to miss a ton of shots. They were 13 of 46, which is twenty just over 28% for the game. We forced them to miss shots and they couldn't get many second chance points because they couldn't get many offensive rebounds. Their leading scorer, Tommy mentioned Telford. I was watching him a lot during the game. he He couldn't even get off shots for the majority of the game. We we defended him so well.
00:09:33
Speaker
sharp guarded him a fair amount. Even, even Arsenault was on him for a while. He was one of five for the game, four points, five turnovers. Their second leading score, Pierre Brooks, two of 10 from the field. Oh, of eight from three had scored six points. So, you know, Calvin mentioned, I heard it last night's press conference that they, you know, that want to go after the team's leading scorers and shut them down. and And boy, did they do that. McCaffrey did hit a few threes. I thought the rotations were a little slow on the um the threes that he hit. And ah sorry to come after you, Tom, but but the one dunk that McCaffrey did have was anything but soft. that was Steve and I looked at each other. We were like, wow, that that was an impressive dunk.
00:10:21
Speaker
But overall, U of H dominated that this big 12 Big East game from the start. yeah Good bounce back from Las Vegas. That that was nice to see. Troy, 20 point win, 62-42, although this really was much bigger than 62-42. We dominated this game. Troy went on an 11-0 run to to end the game.
00:10:43
Speaker
yeah when everyone was out and so it made the score a little little more respectable from their perspective.
Record-Breaking Defense
00:10:51
Speaker
The game was was very much like predicted, like we had talked about. Troy pressures the guards, sometimes full court, they play multiple defenses, they they can go man-to-man, one trip down, then they can go 1-3-1, then they can go man-to-man, then they can go 2-3, they could three-quarter court, full court, half court. They're a team that even Calvin said they are absolutely unusual and we will not see a team like them again almost assuredly for the remainder of this season. I actually enjoyed it what watching their defense. It was interesting to watch. so
00:11:27
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, they're just a team that you're, it's tough to prepare for them because they're so different than everyone else. So, and it affected us offensively. I'd also mentioned Troy's a poor shooting team and God, combined with our defense, I think poor would be a huge compliment.
00:11:49
Speaker
I mean, they they shot 24% for the game, two of 18 from three. In fact, I can remember at one point during the first half, and yeah I was hoping that we would shoot a little better, because we were getting some good shots. ah We were eight of 24 from the field. They were 11, I'm sorry, they were three of 21 at that point. So basically one of seven from the field. I mean, just,
00:12:18
Speaker
They're a bad shooting team, which which we had previewed and combined with our defense. 11 points in the first half, that that's an all time U of H record. yeah We've never done that before against another team. And ah yeah, that there was quite impressive. Yeah, Bill, you know, you said that 11 points is a school record. Yeah. And I'm wondering if we, when we started playing basketball back in the forties and the ball still had laces on it.
00:12:47
Speaker
I mean, this is worse than pre shot clock. I mean, that was, it was expected that they wouldn't score much, but yeah, not 11 points and a half. Offensively, Cryer obviously really showed up, hit eight of 11 shots, six of seven threes, 22 points, ah sharp chipped in with 14. Actually we were seven of 24 from the field at one point, but we shot Well, in the second half ah for the game, we ended up nine of 19 from three. So, you know, just one make away from shooting 50. We blocked nine shots. We dished out a really impressive 17 assists 13 between Usain Sharp and Roberts, but we turned to.
00:13:27
Speaker
the ball over a lot more than they did 18 to 12. Part of that is because of their different defenses, the pressure they put on. And so you might've expected a few more. I thought that as steady as our guards were, we would not turn the ball over more, but we did. and And Calvin mentioned that he addressed Terrence being a little sloppy. And you know there there were certainly some ups and downs. And and I think Troy's crazy style of play really impacted that. yeah But look, we're not going to play against a team like that again. And solid effort, great defense, nice.
Offensive Efficiency Analysis
00:14:07
Speaker
Yeah. Hey, Bill, you'd already mentioned about Roberts being much more active on both ends of the court, which was fantastic to see finally, but I also wanted to get your perspective, you know, around maybe some of the adjustments on offense where it looked like there was a conscious effort to get both arsenal and Oozan more touches, uh, to score. And that's kind of a nice new wrinkle that we hadn't seen really up to this point.
00:14:33
Speaker
Yeah, I think Terrence is the one more front court. I mean, he's certainly front court. He plays almost primarily the small forward. Yeah, he he's got a great mid-range shot, shoots the ball well. He can he could get to the hoop, draw fouls. He's someone that Obviously, Kelvin knows needs to be involved in the offense. and And with the other front court players not producing as much offensively, I think it's a little bit incumbent upon Terrence to score more. Uzan, it was interesting, and Kelvin addressed this during the press conference last night, thinks that Uzan could be a 20-point per game scorer. He said he routinely scores a lot of points in practice.
00:15:21
Speaker
You know, if the, if the minutes are similar, he, he's a 20 point per game score and Calvin wants him to not do that every night. Cause every scenario is going to be different, but he does want him to be more aggressive offensively. And he certainly has been over the last couple of games and he and he does shoot the ball. Well, he's, he's got a nice shot, kind of a floater, a little closer than mid range, but yeah, I mean, he he's got some offensive skills and.
00:15:51
Speaker
Yeah, he he is one of the players that can put the ball on the floor and maybe a little more comfortably than everyone else. So yeah, I think ah and obviously Kelvin addressed it. So he he certainly is.
00:16:03
Speaker
Yeah, now looking forward to see how he further develops. And it's great where he can actually shoot off with both hands as well, which is rare. Now from an analytics perspective, it was a stellar game for our Cougs. On offense, this was by far our most efficient game since the season opener versus Jackson State.
00:16:22
Speaker
with our effective field goal percentage at a blistering 61% for the game, well above our 50.3 standard from last season, or even our 52.6% so far this season. We shot 50%, as you mentioned, from three and 54.8% from two. Offensive rebound rate was below our usual rates, if you can believe that. But the reason for that was that we were just hitting all of our shots at an unprecedented rate.
00:16:49
Speaker
Turnovers, as you guys had both mentioned, were our one issue on offense at over 18% of our possessions. But I'm talking that up to some of the new adjustments and wrinkles that have been introduced on the offensive side of things. My belief is that this will iron itself out by conference play.
00:17:06
Speaker
On defense, we put on a master class limiting Butler to 38% effective field goal percentage. And as you mentioned, Bill, a dismal 22.2% from two point range. Butler bigs were feeling intimidated inside with Houston blocking 28% of their shots.
00:17:22
Speaker
In addition, though we didn't get that many steals, we did force them to turning the ball over on 20% of their possessions. A telling tale of how physical and forceful our day was. We saw how tired and listless Butler was three days later in a lost.
00:17:38
Speaker
to North Dakota State at home. And this is a Butler team that has beaten SMU Northwestern in Mississippi State already this season. So not only a cleansing wind for our Cougars and a win over a big East opponent, but bottom line is that we finally saw the effort and grittiness this season. That's been a hallmark of Coach Sampson's teams. With some tweaks on, oh, that really openings up for this team. It was really smooth sailing.
00:18:02
Speaker
And then really quickly with Troy, when you thought we couldn't be better on D from the Butler game, Coach Sampson dials it up to 11 to complete the shutdown Troy in our game last night. As you guys highlighted, we limited Troy to 26% effective field goal percentage, 11.1% from three, 31.25% from two-point range. We also forced turnovers on 22% of their possessions while blocking 28% of their shots. Complete domination is as you guys had to highlight a school record for at least points a allowed in a half with 11 first half points.
Upcoming Game Against Toledo
00:18:38
Speaker
And as you guys had highlighted as well, it ended up being a 20-point win. But if you look at it more closely, with 2.18 left, we were up by 31 before we cleared the bench. Now, let's get to the one game schedule for this next week. A home game versus Toledo, who, by the way, Bill mentioned last week, lost to Troy by 10 earlier this season. Bill, what's your player's take on the matchup with Toledo?
00:19:04
Speaker
The six and three Toledo Rockets, they've been consistently picked third in the mid-American, which is a ah pretty strong mid-American conference. Well, they won the MAC last year, but they're only returning two starters and the team is not the same.
00:19:20
Speaker
Their coach is Ted Kowalczyk. It's his 14th year, and that's about all I know about him. As you mentioned, Steve, they opened the season of Troy, the first game of the year lost by lost 84-74. They've beaten absolutely nobody, including a ah big win most recently over powerhouse defiance. I don't even know what that is. Yeah, I don't know, but but I think it's Michigan.
00:19:47
Speaker
Is it? Okay. 11149. Yeah, they weren't very defiant in that game. ah They may ah want to change their name. Yeah, they are a perennial NCAA tournament team. And they've got good history. ah But They've had some losses as well. Probably the best team they've played by far is Oakland, another perennial NCAA tournament team. Oakland beat them by 33. 33, wow. And that was at Toledo.
00:20:22
Speaker
This is just not a good team per their norm. I want to say, and I don't want to step on your feet, Steve, I glanced quickly. I think there are over 200 right now in Ken Palm. I think there are over 300 in defense. So that's where the deficiency lies.
00:20:41
Speaker
yeah but that They are not a good defensive team. ah They do have four double-digit scores on the team, but we'll focus on two of them. Their leading scorer, 6-1 point guard, Sonny Wilson, 16 points a game.
00:20:57
Speaker
four rebounds, three and a half assists, shoots 56% from the field, including 40% from three. So good offensive player. ah Sam Lewis is their shooting guard, 6'6 sophomore, 13.5 boards, 47% from the field and 48% from three. So They've got four double digit scores, but probably the two best players are their backcourt Wilson and ah they score 81 a game and they're a decent shooting team. They protect the ball fairly well. They're they're you know, they're solid. They've had five different leading scores in nine games. They give up 76 points, 75 and a half points per game and.
00:21:40
Speaker
Oakland was by far the best team they've played. They've played some pretty hapless teams and they're giving up so almost 76 points a game. They start three guards. They can play up to about 10 players, but it's it's typically about eight. So they're they've got a little bit of depth. They're not a very good rebounding team. They're not especially big. Quite honestly, that they're not terrible at at anything except playing defense where they are abysmal. Yeah.
00:22:07
Speaker
and you know, they're but they're not especially good at anything either. So we should kill them on the boards, limit their their top scores and shooters from hitting threes. We should be able to score quite easily. At Fertitta, I have us winning 88-51. Wow. Yeah, that that would be a massacre. Tom, what's your coach's perspective on the Toledo game? Hey, Bill, did you say the coach's name was so Ted Kowalczyk?
00:22:36
Speaker
Yes. hi Well, i I thought it was Ted, but who knows? Maybe you know more about the coaches than I do. So, okay. I think you're getting a Todd Kowalczyk mix stuff with Ted Kaczynski. the you so that's exact tom That's exactly where I thought you were going with that. Anyway,
00:22:57
Speaker
Yeah, I know who Todd Kowalczyk is. You know, he might not have the greatest record, but he's a really good clinician. He puts out some, you know, some really, really good videos, you know, that high school coaches can use. But all I want to say about Toledo is, you know, get you a nice flight, get you a nice hotel, get you some nice meals, because that two hours in Fertitta is going to be absolute hell.
00:23:26
Speaker
And nobody's going to have fun on the Toledo side to say that. So I'm with Bill. He's, would you say 88 51? Yes. I just say, I'll say this probably like 75 to 40 or whenever elven decides to, you know, to empty the dimension, call off the dogs, because you he's going to have seven days of preparation. There's going to be no slippage. Yeah. Our guy's going to be thrilled to play a game.
00:23:53
Speaker
As opposed to beating each other to a pulpit practice. And I just, my guess is we're going to come out, you know, like a mad dog after a, after a bone, if for some meat, and I could see another 15.5 from Toledo. Yeah, you may be right.
00:24:10
Speaker
I think they're a better scoring team. They can shoot the ball. Troy could not. So it would very much surprise me if they only scored 11 because they they're solid offensively. they're They're much better offensively than defensively for sure. Yeah. But I could see us scoring over 50 in the first half and then maybe be in the 20 to 25 range.
00:24:36
Speaker
guys, talk about offense. If you go back, I think it was the Butler game. Something I forgot to mention was, you know, we we had some practice for that. Kelvin did go back to a couple of different Secondary breaks you kind of use them as sets probably came from his spur days when he coached with Greg Popovich and they had Duncan They ran out a lot of high-low stuff he has something called strong which means the postman the five minutes on the ball side and Then the ball goes and they just set a double staggered screen It's just to get some movement in there and then he has something called a week which just means the post starts on the opposite block and then they run a little triangle pick the picker that
00:25:12
Speaker
We used to call that America's play about 30, about 30 years ago. So Kelvin, you know, put some stuff in. I hadn't seen it this year, but he put those in. You know, he never got any shots off the initial action, but it was just something to move the defense around but before he got into our ball screen stuff and whatever, whatever else we run.
00:25:30
Speaker
Nice. Great stuff, guys. So from an analytics perspective, looking at 2024 season ending numbers, Toledo was a middling team, ranked 139 in Ken Palm. 75 in adjusted offensive efficiency and a lowly 255 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
00:25:49
Speaker
Now, after nine games in with Toledo, their stats are actually trending even worse on both sides. so They're 1.19 and 3.17 respectively this season. So it just got awful.
AP Poll Rankings and Implications
00:26:01
Speaker
The one thing Toledo does well on offense is basically just not turning the ball over, ranking third this year, but we'll see how they hold up against our defense. On D, Toledo doesn't do a single thing well with most critical stats ranking over 200.
00:26:18
Speaker
according to Ken Palm. So based on the metrics, this is projected to be a 24 point win for the Cougs at home. The way we're playing at this point, I think it's going to be a bigger win. I look for us to clean up on our turnovers as we get closer to conference play. And so I'm actually projecting a 31 point win, 86 to 55. But after listening to you guys, I think I've underplayed it at this point, quite honestly. So we'll see how it goes. But yeah, it's not going to be pretty for Toledo.
00:26:49
Speaker
Not at all. So now let's get to our topic of discussion for today. It was all over Twitter this week about how every national champion in men's basketball since 2004 has been ranked in the top 12 in the sixth AP poll of each season. And that was this last AP poll published this week. Teams in the top 12 in order were Tennessee,
00:27:11
Speaker
Number one, Auburn 2, ISU 3, Duke, then Kentucky, Marquette, Alabama, Gonzaga, Florida, Kansas, Purdue, and then Oregon. Now our Houston Cougars came in at number 15, UConn at number 18, and our all familiar Baylor team is unranked this week.
00:27:37
Speaker
Now, what do you guys think of this stat as well as the teams listed here? Also, what do each of you think in terms of what's your stance on UH's chance to make a national championship run at this point? I mean, Tom, you want to kick things off and provide your coaches perspective as well as kind of your rationale for your take? Sure.
00:27:57
Speaker
You know, we lost Auburn, Alabama, San Diego State to those three games for overtime. You know, in years past, we wouldn't have played these games this early in the year and we'd probably be number three right now. So ah that's my take on that. You know, we just got through November.
00:28:13
Speaker
A lot of basketball to be played, you know, last year ah the ACC was kind of, uh, people were putting them down and then came March madness. The ACC did really, really well. So I don't think you can make a judgment and until March madness is done. Sure. We're ranked, you know, in the, in the teens, but I still feel the same way I did at the beginning of the year is that we're going to cut down the nets. You know, every, every team has warts on them and some teams have maybe been exposed this early in the year, maybe a little bit earlier than they would then then later in the year because of the competition they played. But that you know there's no perfect teams. Teams are still trying to find their identity and in chemistry. So I think it's still this is still way too early. Conference play starts and you know teams start to cannibalize each other, kind of like the Starbucks you know where there's five Starbucks on a corner.
00:29:06
Speaker
beat each other up and we'll we'll see what happens with the SEC once their conference play starts. yeah the The losses will start to rack up for for teams. And that's just not the SEC. It's going to happen all over all over the country in the major conferences. Yeah. And I was curious, Tom, of the current top 12 in the AP poll, are there any teams on that list that stand out as, in your mind, should not be in play for a national championship?
00:29:34
Speaker
Is Kentucky in there? Yeah, Kentucky's in there. They're one. They're any team that has Kirk Creason Creason in their rotation. It's not going to win. ah Just wait till the SEC play starts. We'll see how many losses Kentucky has. I'm not a big believer against Aga might be another one. You know, Kentucky went on the road and beat them. So those or are two that probably stick out ah the most to me right now.
00:30:02
Speaker
OK, very cool. Bill, what's your player's view on where our team stands as national title contenders as well as the the list overall? Well, yeah, I was looking at this and I was surprised because of the 12 teams that are listed, they're really only two that I could see. Well, there, there, there are probably three teams that I think have zero chance of winning at all, but, but there are two that are outside of the top 12 that are better than some of the teams in the top 12. And that's, and that's us in Connecticut. Yeah.
00:30:39
Speaker
Agree. So it's it's a surprising list. Yeah, I still think when push comes to shove down the stretch, I think Baylor is going to get a lot better and I think they're going to contend as well. But, uh, yeah, if, if there are three teams, like I said, that, that I think have no chance, uh, and they're toward the bottom of the 12 number nine, Florida, I don't think can win a title 11 Purdue. I saw Purdue just get taken apart by Marquette and.
00:31:09
Speaker
their offense, they looked slow. Yeah, they, they they they to me, have no chance. and And then there's Oregon who, and my little brother would kill me because he goes to Oregon games and is a fan. And, you know, I'll give them full credit. They beat Alabama. they You know, they won the tournament that that we played in, the NIL tournament. And ah so give them credit for that. They played three great games, you know, over a short period of time. and But I think in the end, they're probably not one of the top 12 teams. You know, like Tom said, our losses, we're out of the top 12 barely, and our losses are to Alabama Auburn. And at the end of the tournament, San Diego State, ah who who has shown that they're not a bad team at all. Yeah. You know, same thing for UConn. They theyd lost three games. They're about to go into the Big East, which is really not all that good this year.
00:32:08
Speaker
And they're going to, they're just going to blow through teams. They'll be back in the easily within the top 12. We're going to be in the top 12 for sure. yeah The team is going to continue to get better.
College Basketball Competitive Landscape
00:32:19
Speaker
And yeah, I still am like when we were, and I'm using air quotes debating last week, Steve, I was adamant about.
00:32:29
Speaker
the the fact that I still am 100% behind U of H winning it all. So I think that that definitely happens. You know, initially, Steve, when you had said ah teams in the AP poll in the top 12 had won the championship, I didn't I didn't hear you or maybe you didn't text and I didn't see the ah or I didn't see the ah the date the last 20 years because I was I was about ready to come on and tear you to shreds and say, hey, ah Villanova was unranked and
00:33:01
Speaker
1984 when they ah beat Georgetown up George on the championship and and just before that When Valvano and NC State and I know everyone listening is is just cringing right now but during week six they were ah look they were ranked 17th and We were ranked 18th. Yeah, so ah I was like, yeah, I don't know but but then you you clarified it with 2004 so yeah good We are good Look, it's just a it's just a different landscape right now and and it's becoming more and more of a different landscape. The teams are are playing better teams early in the season. Now you you had this NIL tournament. I'm sure there's going to be more of that, more money to be earned.
00:33:47
Speaker
The top teams are going to continue to play the top teams preseason. I know in the past, it's really affected where you get seated if you don't play a top schedule. and So teams are, you know, other than Danny Hurley, who who just cried and cried and cried after UConn lost their three games and said he's never going to play in a tournament, never playing in anything involving back to back games ever again. That's funny.
00:34:13
Speaker
Yeah. Everybody else is playing difficult schedules, pre-conference. And what does that mean? It means teams are going to have losses. It means teams are going to drop down in the standings and then they're going to they're going to build their way back up. I mean, the other thing is.
00:34:30
Speaker
with all that the transfer portal and everything. You just got teams that aren't the same year in and year out and and it takes time to build chemistry and it takes time to just put things together and and get to the point where you the team is is playing at its peak. Who cares if we're not in the top 12 right now, but ah absolutely we will be there at the end and and we should be.
00:34:57
Speaker
I don't think we're going to get much debate today. I think we're in a lot of agreement on on this discussion topic. And, you know, with me being the analytics guy, my perspective is that this is an interesting stat that for the last 20 years, the national champion has been ranked in the top 12 in week six AP poll. But it's a meaningless stat that just happens to be true based on chance and not hard data.
00:35:23
Speaker
There are other ones based on Ken Palm that come January 1st. And we'll talk about it then as well, where they've got, hey, after all of the preseason games, X number of teams in the top whatever ah have been the champion. And and we'll have that debate.
00:35:40
Speaker
at that point in time. But quite honestly, I have zero faith in the AP writers that participate in the poll. And so when I look at the AP poll, I think I've got exactly the same three teams that you highlighted, Bill, as really pretenders, right? Purdue, Oregon, and then was it Florida? What's the other one? And so for Oregon,
00:36:03
Speaker
They have actually improved quite a bit this season, if you look at their stats. They've beaten some really good teams, as you highlighted, too, that we've lost to in Bama and San Diego State. They've also beaten Texas A and&M and USC. However, from my perspective, I've always found that Dana Altman teams at Oregon to be somewhat inconsistent. And even so far this season, they've just lost to UCLA at home. They've struggled to beat both Oregon State and Portland.
00:36:33
Speaker
And their defensive rating is 26 this season in just a defensive efficiency. But looking deeper, they're only good at some areas to get to that 26 rating. And they're not really exceptional or great in any specific area. So I guess I have my doubts as to whether they're truly going to be contenders.
00:36:53
Speaker
Now Purdue, they've also beaten Bama, Ole Miss, and Maryland. However, they've also lost to Marquette and Penn State, plus their adjusted defensive efficiency for this season is at number 63 in Kenpom. And that's even with last year's stellar stats still baked into the number. So that is not a national championship level defense, period. And then Florida is my third that I'm,
00:37:21
Speaker
I'm really actually least confident about Florida being in contention here. They haven't played anyone yet, with their best win being number 65, Florida State on the road. They haven't won consistently over the last few years, and though their defense is vastly improved this season to number 30 so far, even if that holds up, it's still not what I would consider a national championship caliber on D.
00:37:46
Speaker
Now for me, I actually liked the Ken Palm top 12 for 13 as a better indicator for national championship contenders, even at this point with prior season performance still baked in. I liked the list better, given it's more data driven versus human pollster driven. And quite honestly, these pollsters, none of them have probably played any collegiate basketball in their lives. So if you look at Ken Palm, they've got Auburn, Tennessee, Duke,
00:38:12
Speaker
Gonzaga, Houston, Iowa State, Alabama, Florida, Kentucky, Marquette, Kansas, Baylor, and then as a 13th UConn. So I think that better aligns with almost all three of our kind of views on the teams at this point. Obviously, for me, I believe UH is still well positioned for a national championship run.
00:38:36
Speaker
only difference is that we've played, as you had highlighted Bill very eloquently, that we've played a much tougher schedule earlier than previous years with Coach Sampson. The stats bear out that we're still top 10-ish in both adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency so far this season. And I think the adjustments that we've seen these past two games are exactly what we need as we take things up a notch to the next level come Big 12 Conference play.
00:39:06
Speaker
My earlier prediction and confidence in this team become a national championship. Contenders this season has not wavered at this point and the key is basically continuous improvement and fingers crossed, no injuries
Conclusion and Call to Action
00:39:19
Speaker
the rest of the way. but And I think that's going to be the difference.
00:39:22
Speaker
So that's it for our 35th episode of the No Conference for Old Men podcast. Hope you all enjoyed it, and again, would really appreciate it if folks would follow, subscribe, or collect our podcast, depending on your podcast platform of choice. We are also available via the Republic of Football podcast feed from the folks at Dave Campbell's Texas Football as the only basketball-centric podcast. We're at the gocoos.com website for those that prefer to digest the content that way.
00:39:49
Speaker
We appreciate the continued support from all and please give us a follow on our Twitter account, no conference for old men. Thank you all again for listening and be on the lookout next week to download and listen as our next episode drops. Take care, everyone.