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NFL Season Preview
35 Plays1 month ago
The Goal Post NFL Season Preview is here!
Damien and Patrick start off the show by catching up on the CFL’s fantastic Labour Day Weekend first, as well as some talk about the first weekend of College Football before moving into the NFL. They start by discussing some major storylines in the AFC + NFC heading into the season, before going division-by-division throughout the whole league.
After that, the Boys have a new edition of ‘Wait, he’s there now?’ to update the whereabouts of certain players across the NFL, before moving to a massive betting segment to close out the episode. They give out futures for divisional winners, season totals, and player awards, as well as a few Super Bowl futures.
Damien and Patrick finish with the first instalment of their NFL Picks Battle with picks for Week 1 of the NFL Season - Damien is the reigning champ from 2024, who finished with a 31-23 record.
Enjoy!
INTRO/CFL/NCAA: 0:00 - 17:35
AFC + NFC STORYLINES: 17:36 - 42:22
AFC EAST: 42:23 - 50:43
AFC NORTH: 50:44 - 56:01
AFC SOUTH: 56:02 -1:01:13
AFC WEST: 1:01:14 - 1:07:45
NFC EAST: 1:07:46 - 1:13:56
NFC NORTH: 1:13:57 - 1:18:56
NFC SOUTH: 1:18:57 - 1:24:01
NFC WEST: 1:24:02 - 1:30:45
Wait, he’s there now?: 1:30:46 - 1:35:15
NFL FUTURES: 1:35:16 - 1:50:24
NFL WEEK 1 Picks: 1:50:25 - 1:58:20
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Transcript
Welcome and Season Overview
00:00:16
Speaker
All right, welcome back to another episode of The Goalpost. There's a chill in the air. We got three different football leagues officially running at the same time now.
00:00:31
Speaker
And we're here. It's fall, Patrick. Welcome to the best time of the year for guys like us. Yep. Unfortunately, summer's over. If you if you live by that rule, by you know after Labor Day, summer's done. that you know Labor Day has come and gone.
00:00:46
Speaker
um it's still The weather is still cooperating, which which I'm very appreciative of. and you know It feels like the months getting pushed back a little bit. So maybe we're going to have to you know tinker with that Labor Day rule. Maybe we push Labor Day back a couple weeks in the future.
00:01:02
Speaker
ah Something to think about. But yeah, I mean, We got football back.
Football Leagues Update
00:01:06
Speaker
ah Yeah, the the third league starting up this week. And that's, you know, the big fish. The NFL is coming back. We just had our first taste of college football this week. We're like a full slate of college football.
00:01:18
Speaker
and And then as well as the CFL still going strong with with a great Labor Day Classic. um Yeah, it's it's an exciting time. Uh, and it's, it's a, to me, this is the favorite part of like, you know, it's a fresh start for everyone.
NFL Preview and Focus
00:01:32
Speaker
You know, everyone's O and O. Well, you know, everyone in the NFL for now is O and O. You don't know what the season's going to hold for you. There's still hope out there.
00:01:41
Speaker
There's excitement. The, you know, the snow hasn't come down yet. So fall is one of my favorite times of the year. And it's even better when, you know, we get more and more football coming on our TV screen. Well said. Yeah, a lot going on in this episode, as you probably see from the title.
CFL Labor Day Recap
00:01:56
Speaker
This is our official NFL preview, getting you fully up to date so that you don't look like an idiot come week one.
00:02:05
Speaker
um But lots to cover and lots to go over still. And it has to kind of start with we can't, you know, throw the CFL in the trash right now because that was an unbelievable Labor Day weekend.
00:02:19
Speaker
It started on Sunday night with an absolute barn burner between the Rough Riders and the Blue Bombers. We got an instant classic on the Monday ah between the Argos and the Ticats.
00:02:31
Speaker
And then things kind of weaned out towards the end with the Stampeders and the Elks. But going back to Sunday night, you know, a lot of what we talked about with the Rough Riders was they haven't lost a lot of games. Are they going to be able to bounce back?
00:02:45
Speaker
How are they going to look against, you know, a team they might have some old demons with in Winnipeg? But credit to Saskatchewan, although they kind of tried their hardest towards the end of that game to blow it.
00:02:57
Speaker
They come away with what I would say is a huge, huge win against the Blue Bombers. A massive bounce back win for the Rough Riders and it got off to a pretty quiet start. I mean, a pointless first quarter on either side and then the two offenses kind of got into their their flow state and it set the stage for, you know, the rest of the game. It was it was a three quarter battle ah that was filled with a lot of scoring, a lot of points and just.
00:03:21
Speaker
There some controversy built in near the end there as well, but ah you know it started off kind of what we thought was going to happen in this game.
Rough Riders vs. Blue Bombers Analysis
00:03:28
Speaker
Brady Oliveira gets his touches, gets his gets a five-yard score to begin the scoring. Then you know ah a Sergio Castillo, and it's it's a classic Winnipeg start, right? like Nothing, man. I know it it took a little bit longer for this one. It was in the second quarter, but it feels like Winnipeg gets out to a 10-0 or a 10-3 start almost every single week.
00:03:47
Speaker
ah So none nothing different this week. and then you know the Rough Riders showed so showed their will and like their their ability to bounce back. It looked a little worrying after that 10-0 start, and you still don't have points on the board halfway through the second quarter after losing last week.
00:04:05
Speaker
ah But then Ulek gets in the end zone, and then a kneeled, like just a bomb. Like exactly what you know the Rough Riders needed right before half, a 69-yard touchdown pass from Trevor Harris.
00:04:16
Speaker
And they have a lead at halftime, and it was kind of a weird game in that sense, but Saskatchewan had them right where they wanted at home with a kind of a backdoor second second quarter lead at halftime.
00:04:28
Speaker
Yeah, it was a it's speaking of backdoors tough tough cover for our picks with the Winnipeg sneaking a backdoor cover in there. Those are the worst type of picks where even though you lost the pick, you're like, that was still the right pick.
00:04:43
Speaker
Like it's like, it was still the right pick to take the riders on the spread. and And you can't, you'd have a hard time talking me out of the under, not being the right pick with a scoreless first quarter. I was thinking we are exactly where we want to be.
00:04:56
Speaker
And then at halftime, even 14, 10, I wasn't really stressed about the total. And then the second half, they just kept scoring. And then, yeah like you said, like quick jump to the end, like when when Winnipeg is going for two there, just and insult to injury, taking that two-point interception back to the house ah just to win by four. I was kind of hoping for overtime. Maybe we find a way to win.
00:05:18
Speaker
ah But yeah, it was a great battle in this one. Yeah, it really was.
Player Highlights and Game Impact
00:05:21
Speaker
We got to see a nice little ah classic CFL punt single from the quarterback. Hadn't seen that in a really long time. ah This was just an exciting game. Shout out Mario Anderson Jr. ah Three carries for 34 yards and two touchdowns. AJ Ouellette got in the end zone. Kind of a very classic riders game in that they just kind of, you know, defaulted to the ground and made some huge plays in the Russian category. Tough loss for Winnipeg, but huge win for Saskatchewan and kind of pushing that envelope a bit further ah in their lead in the West.
Argos vs. Ticats Game Preview
00:05:53
Speaker
um But going to Monday, man, we had a lot of expectations for this Monday game between the Argos and the Ticats. We expected a lot of points. We got a lot of points, but man, one of the best finishes in the entire year here.
00:06:08
Speaker
Really weird game because thought the Argos dominated most of the first half and then You know, Hamilton gets that blocked punt touchdown and all of a sudden going into half, the Argos only have a two point lead.
00:06:20
Speaker
And it really looked like it was slipping for most of the second half for the Argos. They really couldn't stop anything on defense.
Argos' Comeback and Strategic Plays
00:06:27
Speaker
which kind of culminates in leaving Kenny Lawler man on man with a minute left.
00:06:33
Speaker
Hamilton needs a touchdown and Kenny Lawler gets like a 46 yard catch. And then again is completely wide open in the end zone with what was that? 19 seconds left, 20 seconds left.
00:06:46
Speaker
Yeah. um Yeah. You know, the Argos get that huge, huge score to go up late under a minute left, you know, uh, a lackluster drive, shall we say with the quick two and out there, uh, you know, Hamilton uses their last time out on, kind of just sets the stage for bully by Mitchell to do, you know, exactly what he does, especially on labor day at home. And he makes no mistake. The Argos are the ones who made all the mistakes. It's just, you have, you can let any other guy on that roster beat you.
00:07:17
Speaker
And somehow they let the number one receiver in the league beat them twice. Uh, and just in spots that you just can't happen. And it's, All the demons were creeping back into my head about, oh my God, the Argos defense. They're finding ways to lose. This is such a classic Argos you know way to lose this game. Bo Levi completes that pass to Kenny Lawler with, like you said, 19 seconds left.
00:07:41
Speaker
Becomes the 12th quarterback in CFL history to record 250 career passing touchdowns. ah So congrats to him. And then, i mean, i said it set the stage for Bo Levi.
00:07:52
Speaker
Set the s stage for Nick Arbuckle right after that. ah Just kind of a hope and hoping a prayer throw to Dijon Bursette. He mosses two Hamilton defenders and... he pretty much caught it in field goal range or like at least borderline field goal range.
00:08:07
Speaker
And he just kept going. He just kept going. He wanted the end zone so badly ah for better. Like in a way, thank God he stepped out because it does. I just don't know if that, because, you know, the ball was maybe out of bounds before i hit the pilot, whatever, but it doesn't matter. He steps out of bounds at the four or five yard line with one second left on the clock.
00:08:26
Speaker
ah Then a game winning field goal as time expires. What a comeback from the Argos and just a massive win for them. Yeah, huge win. You're now two points behind Montreal. I've never seen a team like win, lose, and then win a game that fast. I was just, I was screaming at my TV for him to get out of bounds and he goes all the way and I knew he stepped out and I was just waiting for that clock to see what time it happened at. Thank God it was with a second left.
00:08:55
Speaker
Absolute insane finish. The fact that none of those defenders batted that ball down it Just make a tackle. All you have to do is make a tackle there. And then, you know, the Argos have to make ah a longer field goal where you don't know. except It was like right on fringe field goal territory where nothing was guaranteed there.
00:09:11
Speaker
They were kicking into the wind. Exactly. and they both make the mistake of going for the interception, going for the ball and Brissette and the Argos made them pay. And that felt good. Like that, ought too you know, ah it's nice for the Argos to get a bounce.
00:09:24
Speaker
Yeah. feel like they haven't gotten a lot of bounces this year. Yeah, and now you got two wins in a row, like you said, two points behind Montreal. And Hamilton's kind of trending down as well. I think they've lost about three in a row or three out of their last four.
00:09:37
Speaker
i I don't know. The East, where I thought it was kind of set a couple weeks ago, is now somehow wide open with a couple weeks left down the stretch here. Just a wild, a wild East division right now. Yeah, and the Elks lost too, which was big in terms of the crossover for the Argos.
00:09:56
Speaker
It is. Yeah, it's all up in the air. The Argos are officially back in the hunt. Like we said, just as I think we're I'm out on the Argos, they pull me back in This was exactly one of those moments. Makai Polk, quick, you know, closing thoughts on this game to have him back in this lineup. He is so good.
00:10:13
Speaker
And he he's obviously coming out of an NFL camp. So, you know, he's going to be ready. But it looked like he did not skip a beat, especially in that second half. Made some huge, huge catches, especially on that touchdown drive um that set up the Argos to be up before.
00:10:30
Speaker
ah the Ticats came back. But yeah, just huge to have a guy like that back in this lineup. Feels like everybody across the CFL is just feasting on these NFL cuts. ah Aju Aju back with the Riders.
00:10:43
Speaker
ah Just seems like ah Ontario Wilson is now back with the Blue Bombers. um So it's shaping up to be an incredible stretch here leading up to the CFL playoffs.
00:10:54
Speaker
Yeah, huge boost for the Argos there getting Polk back. And I mean, The Arbuckle MOP conversation is starting to heat up a little bit more. He's now down to 11 to one, uh, tied with Nathan Rourke.
00:11:06
Speaker
And know, you keep fighting. If the R goes against the playoffs, I think it's as legit of an argument as, as any, especially going off of last year with Bo Levi Mitchell.
00:11:18
Speaker
Yeah, absolutely. Vernon Adams, I think was playing with the flu last night. He didn't have a fantastic game. yeah He's obviously still leading, but that even, you know, gave nick Nick Arbuckle some more ground to kind of extend that lead on passing yards.
00:11:35
Speaker
getting close with passing touchdowns like it's it is right there for Nick Arbuckle um but yeah shaping up to be an incredible finish in the CFL quickly before we get uh to the NFL obviously the name of the game for this episode we got to touch on your Buckeyes here huge week one win for Ohio State hosting number one Texas saw a lot of people being like you know if Texas is number one why are they playing on the road to start it and then forget yeah, Ohio State won last year.
00:12:05
Speaker
They also booked these matchups like 10 years in advance. So no one knows if these teams are even going to be good when they match up. I think Ohio State last year booked a home and home with Alabama in about 12 years. So I got that one to look forward to in a while.
00:12:20
Speaker
ah So yeah, it was just kind of the way it shapes up. Ohio State will be in Texas to start the year next year. So yeah you you get a chance to get your lick back, Texas. um But yeah, it was an impressive showing for me for Ohio State. I I bet the under, it was kind of the game that I expected to see.
00:12:36
Speaker
Uh, you know, Ohio state lost both coordinators in the off season, 14 guys to the draft. So it was going to be a, a bit of a safety shoes game and the defense was going to have to win it.
00:12:47
Speaker
Um, two great defenses though. Uh, Ohio state just made the key plays. They got the interception, ah the stop on fourth and fourth and one, fourth and goal on the one, uh, just a lot of fourth down stops. And then Julian saying,
00:13:00
Speaker
I was impressed by him. It's not going to blow you away. His stats weren't great, but he did make mistakes. He made the passes when necessary. even like his There was a couple drops in the first half.
00:13:12
Speaker
and One was on a fourth down play on the first drive. Jeremiah Smith, shockingly, had two drops as well. so The stats are probably would have been better if he got a little bit more help from the receiver room, but a pretty impressive game from Ohio State to open up the season. and I mean...
00:13:27
Speaker
Arch Manning didn't look great. That's the obvious thing. But I also think that that is a very tough ah game to open up and a very tough defense to play. I think he'll be fine. a i That doesn't mean he's going to win the Heisman, but Texas and Arch Manning, I'm i'm not selling my stock. I still think that's going to be a very good team and quarterback.
00:13:44
Speaker
Yeah, it's a it's a confusing conversation. College football is the league of overreactions. It is so intense. I missed college football numbers. Like I tweeted out, flash forward to the Alabama game, I tweeted out Ty Simpson not going for that, running for that first down, and within like five minutes it has 15,000 views and and a zillion likes and retweets. Like you forget – It is so intense.
00:14:12
Speaker
Everybody in the world seems to be watching the same game at the same time. um So that spotlight gets so intense. And I think that that was also what made me impressed with Julian saying was that he didn't really make the mistake.
00:14:25
Speaker
He looked calm for a guy starting his first game. ah And yeah, just overall fun weekend of college football. Fun to see Alabama lose that game. I got a soft spot um for that Florida State team um for Tommy Castellanos.
00:14:40
Speaker
Great name. He played great. Yeah, just a fun weekend of college football. yeah I don't know if you watched that Notre Dame-Miami game. That game took forever.
00:14:51
Speaker
It started at 7.30. I think it finished at midnight. College football games go forever. It's four hours. like ohio The Ohio State-Texas game was an anomaly because there just wasn't a lot of scoring. That game flew by in under 3.5.
00:15:04
Speaker
90% of the games, especially when they're national broadcasts, are going four hours and sometimes longer. And that's insane. You had some scoring. And the worst part is most of the scoring in that game, especially for Notre Dame, was scoring in the fourth quarter.
00:15:18
Speaker
So it's like you're adding touchdowns, you're adding scoring to, you know, where most of the commercials come from aside from halftime is in the fourth quarter, two minute warning, like all that stuff. So it was kind of that fourth quarter lasted. felt like as long as the first three quarters of the game, it just would not end to the point where it was like, it got to the end of that game. i was like, I don't even care about this game anymore. i don't even care about watching it.
00:15:42
Speaker
I'm done with you, Carson Beck. Get off my screen. yeah He looked good. Miami looked good. He did. LSU big win over Clemson. um Bill Belichick got rocked in his opener at home.
00:15:55
Speaker
Any other like big stories? Yeah, I was disappointed in Clemson. I feel like you and me both like K Clubnik a lot. ah they're They're like a sneaky, likable team now that they've kind of gone through the valley of college football and are back on the way up.
00:16:09
Speaker
I was super disappointed in them in that game. It felt like nobody really wanted to win that game. LSU's defense looked great, but yeah, it was that was a weird one. Yeah, I had a similar reaction to it where, you know, Cade, even Nussbier, like he was good. He was fine. But yeah I expected more from both those quarterbacks. um They kind of look like Arch Manning and Julian San a little bit, obviously a little bit better, but still like Cade Klubnick at home, massive game.
00:16:36
Speaker
You would like to see more than 10 points on the board. Yeah. Yeah, it wasn't great for Clemson, but like I said, you know that game losing games like that to Clemson losing to LSU, Notre Dame losing to Miami, ah ohio Ohio State beating Texas, none of those teams are dead.
00:16:51
Speaker
And I would assume all three of those teams find a way into the college football playoff this season. Yeah, huge one for Notre Dame next week playing Texas A&M. And obviously, Notre Dame doesn't have contract. They got a bye week. But in two weeks, a huge early bye week for Notre Dame because they got some stuff.
00:17:08
Speaker
When you think of Notre Dame, you think O-line, D-line, and you know it's Jeremiah Love's comeback. So it's like, okay, they're going to run the ball. Jeremiah Love is splitting carries, and it's and the offensive line is not getting ah protection for CJ Carr.
00:17:21
Speaker
The defensive line isn't looking much better. it's It was not the Notre Dame that I've come to know. No, not at all. um But yeah, we will ah we will keep updating you on college football as we move forward here.
00:17:36
Speaker
But it's time to get to the big show here. It's time to get to our NFL preview. Obviously, we were there with you week in, week out for the entirety of the season last year.
00:17:47
Speaker
Going into the season this year, a lot of big picture storylines heading in ah and a lot of buzz. it It was an interesting season last year where it kind of felt like early on, like the Eagles really went under cover, I would say through weeks like four to 12.
00:18:07
Speaker
And then it really started becoming apparent that they were one of, if not the best team in the NFL that is gone now. That is, you know, the the story is out on this Eagles team. and And going into the season, I feel like one of the big storylines is, will the Eagles experience a Super Bowl hangover? That's always the big question ah with a team coming off a Super Bowl. They have the fifth hardest schedule in the entirety of the NFL, and it's not a cakewalk in any means for them, ah even to start the season. Obviously, they have the Cowboys.
00:18:43
Speaker
ah But then they go to the Chiefs in the second week. So I'm very interested to start this whole NFL discussion to see if the Eagles experience a Super Bowl hangover. If Saquon Barkley experiences 2000 yard hangover. I'm very intrigued in the Eagles, how they're going to respond here.
00:19:04
Speaker
I agree. It's it's it's something that you know is goingnna it's going to play a factor in their season. The best thing they have going for them is they were basically able to retain 95% of the key players of their roster. I mean, the big guys that they lost, probably Milton Williams on the D-line, ah Darius Slay and CJ Gardner-Johnson were key pieces of the secondary, and then ah an emotional veteran leader in Brandon Graham retired at the end of the year. So that's a key voice in the locker room that they'll you know lose.
00:19:34
Speaker
But for the most part, it is the exact same team that you're going to see roll out this year. um Maybe Jalen Hurts has another year of confidence. you know it's right like you know You go into like the fantasy aspect, people are kind of scared.
00:19:47
Speaker
of how much Saquon Barkley touched the ball last season. And they, you know, they think he's, could be set up for a slight regression this year with, you know, just how much of a workload a running back took on. He's going in, he's going to be 28 years old this season, which is not young by any means for running back.
00:20:04
Speaker
ah So can, like said, can he kind of, carry that momentum over. He doesn't need to go for 2000 yards. Nobody's asking him to repeat that. Uh, but they would definitely like to see him continue to be a top three, top five running back in the league.
00:20:16
Speaker
Uh, and then it's just, how are you going to distribute the ball between AJ Brown, Devante Smith, uh, and Dallas Goddard. And I think, I think they have a plan. I still think they're probably number one power ranked in the NFC until until proven otherwise. I think you have to give them the benefit of the doubt in that in that sense. But to me, I do not expect there to be a hangover ah from the Eagles, but i I'm also not saying that I expect them to repeat. I think they'll probably win the division kind of thing and be in the playoffs and be a top three seed in the NFC.
00:20:49
Speaker
ah But then it's just like, You know, it's tough to repeat. I think we got used to growing up seeing the Patriots do it. They had two dynasties there. Then you go to the chiefs. Like that's not common stuff.
00:21:00
Speaker
And I don't think it's right to expect the Eagles to repeat this season. Yeah, i think that's fair. they They have certain stretches of the season where they got really hard. Like they finished commanders, bills, commanders.
00:21:12
Speaker
um Obviously, they go Chiefs, Rams, Bucks, Broncos at the start of the season. um So it it's going to be kind of, i think, a wait and see game to see, you know, if this still dominant team kind of rolls over um and beats those good teams or if they kind of struggle a bit.
00:21:29
Speaker
And, you know, nobody I don't think expects to see that on Thursday night. Obviously, they're opening the season against the Mika Parsons list. Cowboys will get to that trade in a bit.
00:21:40
Speaker
um But yeah, very interested to see now the Eagles do staying in the NFC, the team they beat in the NFC championship last year. My second storyline, will Jaden Daniels and the commanders compete?
00:21:51
Speaker
experience a sophomore slump. And that's, you know, a twofold thing where this commanders team really overachieved last year in terms of any expectations that they had.
00:22:03
Speaker
So did Jane Daniels, those kind of went part and parcel together. um And now that the, you know, the book is out on both this commanders team and on Jane Daniels, will they kind of go through that sophomore some similar to how a CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans did last year?
00:22:21
Speaker
um obviously the commanders also have a pretty tough schedule. It's what happens when you win a lot of games. um But yeah, I'm, I'm very intrigued in seeing how this commanders team kind of responds. Like is you're obviously kind of set up for failure. If you reach the NFC championship and you weren't supposed to anything, you know, less than that seems like, you know, you're taking a step down, but what are your expectations for the commanders this season?
00:22:47
Speaker
So we we watched the sophomore slump after a great rookie season last year with CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans. They were still able to make the playoffs in a weak division, but you could tell CJ Stroud took a little bit of a step back from where he was in the rookie season and you expect him you expected him to continue to grow.
00:23:05
Speaker
and be a top five quarterback maybe in the league last year, that didn't happen. So now everyone's going to turn that attention towards Jaden Daniels, and it's kind of expecting a sophomore slump.
00:23:16
Speaker
um What I think the Commanders did great, though, in the offseason, and I mean, the Texans tried, like they brought in Diggs, but I just, I don't think Diggs was like the leader that you want in that room. I don't think he's going to help CJ Stroud in that sense.
00:23:29
Speaker
I think the commanders came out and added a lot of guys and a lot of key pieces around him, like Debo Samuel, obviously. They were able to re re-sign Terry McLaurin before the season started, which I think is a massive, massive deal for the commanders and Jaden Daniels to kind of already have that relationship with a number one receiver and a guy who's a guy who's you know suffered through some horrible quarterback play in Washington, stuck it out,
00:23:54
Speaker
Now he's kind of got his quarterback and he wants to get paid. I don't really mind that move. And they were able to add, ah you know, Laramie Tunsil at the tackle position, I think is kind of, you know, we have a segment later on in the show and I'm kind of, you know, giving one away here, but like that is a massive, massive addition to this team.
00:24:13
Speaker
I feel like a big, you know, not, or sorry, not a strength of this team last year was the offensive line. And you kind of saw that when Jaden would have to run for his life in a couple of games and he was going to have to do everything by himself. I think you're going to be able to see Jaden Daniels throw the ball a little bit more and be not be a pocket passer, but be able to rely on his arm and show it off a little bit more and not have to run. And then I think, you know, the defense probably is going to be a little bit, a little bit better. Like they added Kinlaw, um Bobby Wagner, reign which is a key piece, you know, Vaughn Miller. So it's, it's a veteran defense.
00:24:49
Speaker
ah And, you know, they got Dan Quinn as a defensive head coach. So I think that's still going strength for this team. I expect them to make the playoffs, but for some reason, 12 and five, like but that was a record last year.
00:25:02
Speaker
I can see something more like a 10 and seven, something like that, you know, sneaking in as the second or third wildcard team. ah People now have more and more tape on Jaden Daniels as well. So I think there's going to be a lot of ah things playing a factor here.
00:25:15
Speaker
I don't expect Jaden Daniels to regress, but I don't necessarily see him taking that step to be a top three quarterback in the league. Yeah, yeah, I think 10 and 7 would be, I think if you ask most Commanders fans, they would be completely fine with 10 and 7, and I agree. I think that they upgraded in a smart way at good kind of key positions, whether Laramie Tunsil can kind of dial back the penalties. That was a bit of a trend with the Texans last year, but yeah, we'll get to the Texans later, but ah that's a tough loss for them considering the state of their offensive line already.
00:25:48
Speaker
Um, couple more in the NFC. This one's a bit of a twofold one. Um, can the lions sustain success without Ben Johnson? And then can Ben Johnson bring success to the bears? Like this is kind of a twofold thing where you have a coordinator of this stature switching over, but staying in the conference, staying in the division.
00:26:10
Speaker
um what will happen kind of to the NFC North here. I think that there are a few teams that the narrative has become a bit overblown on. And I think the lions is one of them.
00:26:23
Speaker
I think people are expecting the lions to take this huge step back without Ben Johnson. I personally just don't see it. I think that the Lions have a ton of talent. Obviously, Ben Johnson is a very important piece to that. But to me, when you have that much talent in the NFL and you have a bit of a culture that's been kind of brought up from the ground up,
00:26:45
Speaker
That doesn't just go away overnight with a coordinator leaving. i'm I'm still pretty high on the Lions going into this season. Agreed. Agreed. I'm still holding my stock in the Lions this year. Obviously, they lost Ben Johnson.
00:26:58
Speaker
ah That's going to be a huge... Huge part of their offense, but there's too many good players on this offense. ah And like you said, there's an identity. There's a culture that these guys have been playing under with Dan Campbell for a couple of years now.
00:27:12
Speaker
And they know, and they've they're bought in. like in they're go The biggest thing for me is past couple years with the Lions, it's all kind of been new for them, right? You know, like you said, they've been brought up from the ground. They used to be horrible.
00:27:25
Speaker
And then every year they've kind of gotten better and better. Last year was probably a little bit of a disappointing end to the season. Like they wanted to at least make the NFC championship, I would assume, and probably at Superbowl hopes.
00:27:37
Speaker
They didn't get to either. And I think that's going to be ah a sign of motivation for them this year. And they're going to have a little bit of a chip on their shoulder, which is going to be good for a young team that has plenty of skill.
00:27:48
Speaker
Uh, Toughest division in the league, in my opinion, this year is probably the NFC North, which doesn't bode well for them. And, you know, if you drop a couple games to, you know, Packers, Bears or the Vikings, you may not be able to win that division.
00:28:02
Speaker
But I absolutely see the Detroit Lions being in the playoffs and having... and having a real shot at go at winning the Superbowl, like golf is still playing well. He's way younger than you think he is. And it's just a team that's going to be there.
00:28:16
Speaker
They got the two headed monster still in the backfield. Like you're not going to forget how to use you these horses, right? Like I know Ben Johns is gone and he was a very creative, but in a way, some of that creativity killed them in a couple of games and you saw it and it's like, okay, can you just simplify your offense a little bit and just, you know, get first downs and kill some clock and,
00:28:35
Speaker
They're turning the ball over. They're stopping the clock in bad situations. So maybe it'll be a good thing for the Lions to kind of simplify their offense a little bit and just let their star players run the show.
00:28:47
Speaker
Yeah, that was kind of the what happened in that you know, playoff game against the commanders at times, it felt like it was so gadgety. You know, I remember the flea flicker that turned into an interception. Like there were certain plays where it was like, all right, guys, like we're, we're doing a bit too much here. We're leaving a little bit too much up to chance.
00:29:06
Speaker
And yeah, I think the lines will be just fine. You're right though. It it is a very tough division. which brings me to the bears where it's, I can't really get a read on the bears. I feel like nobody really can right now. It's going to take a few games into the season to really see, you know, what this bears team is kind of made of or, or what those coaching decisions factor into. They have the third hardest schedule in the NFL right now, which does not bode well.
00:29:35
Speaker
Sometimes I don't really get that about the NFL. Like, I guess when you're a bad team, all the games are hard. So it's like that's that kind of factors in. It's why a team like the Giants on paper have the toughest schedule this season.
00:29:48
Speaker
um But yeah, I just I can't seem to really get a read on the Bears. And especially with Caleb Williams, I'm just I'm not sure what they're going look like. They could look fantastic or they could look much of the same.
00:30:02
Speaker
The Bears are a team where I'm just going to stay away from them. I can easily see them start the season 0-3. ah That game against the Cowboys where they play them in week three is going to be massive.
00:30:13
Speaker
um And I mean, so is week one against the Vikings and a prior in a Monday night football matchup. And like said, I just don't know what Ben Johnson is going to look like as a head coach either. He seems like one of those guys where, you know, this is not a ricochet shot, kind of Mike McDaniel ask where it's like, you are a creative guru and you, you scheme things up that other guys can't. And you're an offensive genius and you're a bit of a wonder boy, but can you control a full room of grown men?
00:30:42
Speaker
It's a different, it's a different task. It's a different animal than just, you know, calling plays, and just having the offensive guys you know buy into what you're doing. You need to have a whole team buy into everything, and you probably can't be their friend as as much as you were an offensive coordinator. You're going to have to hurt some feelings.
00:31:00
Speaker
it's It's just very different, and I'm not saying it's not going to be successful. I just don't know. We haven't seen it with Ben Johnson yet. So the Bears are a team where I'm just going to ah observe them.
00:31:11
Speaker
Right. Last year was probably a ah disappointing year for just about everyone on that team. Like there's not many guys who came out of that season being like, yeah, i was happy with how I played and yeah I exceeded my expectations or or even lived up to the expectations.
00:31:27
Speaker
I felt like all everyone there kind of let them down, but you know I think DJ Moore could be primed for a good year. You'd like to see Caleb Williams. Big year for Caleb Williams, right? If he throws another year like he just had, so like he's kind of avoided the...
00:31:43
Speaker
bust accusations for now and everything like that. But I mean, another year like that, then there's going to be some outside media attention coming in and it's just going to be a firestorm if if they don't get off to a half decent start, which I think their trouble their schedule can have some trouble to start. And like said, it is one the hardest in the league. So...
00:32:02
Speaker
The Bears are just going have to prove it. And I'm just not really going to say they're going to be good or bad for now. Yeah, I think that's a perfect approach to them. Just sit and watch with the Bears. also think having Ben Johnson brings a lot more media to them this year where, you know, it's already a huge market that gets a bunch of attention. But I think having a new coach like that naturally brings a lot of attention um you know, to your team and to how you're playing as a quarterback.
00:32:27
Speaker
um But moving to the NFC or to the AFC, you want to talk about bringing attention to your team as a quarterback. Patrick, the storyline in the AFC that was dropped from the heavens to the Goalpost podcast, Aaron Rodgers is signing with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
00:32:46
Speaker
i remember being giddy the day this happened just for what it would mean for us on this podcast for the entirety of the season. Is it a last dance?
00:32:56
Speaker
Is it a crashing plane? I don't know, but I just know I'm excited to watch it happen. I think I am as well. ah I think yeah week one is going to be a fun one.
00:33:09
Speaker
ah Going against his old team, Justin Fields, going against the Steelers. A little bit of a ah dual revenge game, which is really fun to start the year. I do appreciate Aaron Rodgers so far. He's been quiet.
00:33:22
Speaker
He has been bringing a lot of media attention. And you know, he got named to captain the other day. it was pretty surprising, but I like to see that. I think he respects Mike Tomlin a lot more than, you know, Rob Sala.
00:33:35
Speaker
And it's kind of like he's back with the Packers in the sense of like, It's an older franchise. It's built off tradition. It's built on like, you know a true football town.
00:33:45
Speaker
So I think he really likes that. I think he's kind of bought into this a little bit more. ah He said it's going to be his last season. So I think he wants to go out on a high note and have a little bit of a last dance as opposed to a crash and burn, which is definitely not out of the question though, right? Like who knows how the season starts?
00:34:02
Speaker
Who knows what happens? I just would like him to stay in that pocket, let the arm do the work. And I do think for the most part, the Steelers didn't downgrade at the quarterback position compared to last year. I don't think they got worse. I'm not saying it's a huge improvement by any means, but I would take Aaron Rodgers over Russell Wilson.
00:34:23
Speaker
ah Justin Fields would have been more of a question mark. You don't know. His legs are are a huge aspect. We'll see how that works out with the Jets. ah But I do like you know adding DK Metcalf to him, a nice deep threat.
00:34:34
Speaker
you know You got Johnny Smith as well, going versatile, tight end, which can be be available for underneath routes. And I would like to see Roman Wilson kind of step up this year because he was injured all of last season, which was kind of frustrating. But Yeah, man, it's going to be exciting.
00:34:49
Speaker
I don't know what to expect, and I'm just going to keep an open mind to A-Rod, and I want him to bring smiles to my face week in and week out. That's all I can ask for. That's all you can ask for. that i I do love pairing this with DK Metcalf. I think that is huge to have somebody like that to be a number one option.
00:35:08
Speaker
my My big question with the Steelers is that wide receiver depth. like You lose George Pickens, and... you you know Obviously, we're we're past yeah a couple years removed from Deontay Johnson, um but I think that you know you go down that depth chart, you get to Calvin Austin in the wide receiver two position.
00:35:27
Speaker
Then, like you said, you get to Roman Wilson. That is my biggest question mark with this team is if. DK Metcalf is so heavily covered as being the you know overarching number one on this team.
00:35:40
Speaker
How does that look in an offense with Aaron Rodgers? How do those guys step up in more depth positions on this team? I think the defense got better ah in in terms of you know upgrading. I think Jalen Ramsey still got it.
00:35:55
Speaker
I think that... In terms of the Steelers, you know, making a bit of a splash and going out and getting DK Metcalf was huge. But those depth spots are really where my questions come from.
00:36:08
Speaker
Yeah, and the the wide receiver position is absolutely their weakest part of their team. um I'm going to choose to believe in Roman Wilson. That could age horribly, and I'm i' more than welcome to it aging horribly because, I don't know, I was so frustrated with him last year, and it's like, oh, he's teasing us. Is he back? Is he not?
00:36:25
Speaker
I think a huge underrated part was adding Johnny Smith. I think he's basically going to be a wide receiver. yeah i I think you're going to Fryermuth and Darnell Washington play the true tight end positions who are, I would like to see Darnell Washington get into the pass catching game a little bit more.
00:36:40
Speaker
Fryermuth is a good pass catching tight end. So there's another, you know, option for him. He's not in the wide receiver room, but you know, it helps. It's ah it's a safety blanket. And I think you're going to see Jalen Warren get a lot of opportunity in like the screen game.
00:36:54
Speaker
and just getting the ball in his hands because he's just so fast and dangerous and open field. Absolutely a concern, ah but I'm just going to choose to go into the season with a positive mindset and, you know, hopefully I can be proven wrong. And hopefully like ah in a perfect world, DK Metcalf got paid a lot of money.
00:37:12
Speaker
Many people would say it was a bit of an overpayment. He's a top five paid wide receiver in the league. Probably not a top five receiver in the league, but hey, maybe he goes out there, proves people wrong and is a top five receiver this year.
00:37:23
Speaker
That is the best case scenario for the Steelers. And I would love to see it happen. Not expecting it, but I would love to see it happen. Yep. Fair enough. um We'll stay in the AFC here with two teams that are playing each other in week one, probably the game of the week in terms of week one.
00:37:39
Speaker
Can either the Ravens or the Bills finally break through the AFC? That is the question. in terms of one of these two teams making it to a Super Bowl. It feels like we've been in this purgatory with both of these teams every year over the past you know three years, maybe four years, expecting them to to make that jump and to break through the ceiling that is the Kansas City Chiefs to get to a Super Bowl. And it feels like now this is the year where probably both fan bases are getting a little
00:38:16
Speaker
Or really tired of hearing that each year and not seeing that success. been lots of personal successes, and MVPs for both Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. But is this the year that either of them can finally break through to that next level is the big question for me.
00:38:35
Speaker
Oh, this is my number one storyline for yeah for the NFL this year. It's, you know, the Chiefs have owned the AFC for the past five, maybe six years. um Buffalo and and Baltimore have been the bridesmaids. You know, Cincinnati was in that conversation for a little bit. They took a step back last year.
00:38:51
Speaker
But it's Baltimore-Buffalo. And they're both, the like, Baltimore is the current favorite to win, plus 700. Buffalo is right there, plus 750. Both favored over the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl. So, you know, Vegas has them taking that jump, one of these two teams.
00:39:08
Speaker
To me, it boils down to a couple of things. ah The Bills, especially, I think Baltimore's in in a little bit of a different conversation. The Bills just don't have a great roster.
00:39:19
Speaker
ah It feels really weird to say it. And that's kind of why I was more than fine with Josh Allen getting the MVP last year is it feels like he has to do so much more on that team than like Lamar Jackson has around him.
00:39:32
Speaker
um And yeah I just, like you said, I don't think, you know, the bills I like what Josh Palmer this year, a couple other guys, but nothing, nothing major where it jumps out at you. Maybe Joey Bosa, but that's kind of just a name now. Not like he's not that much of an impact player like he used to be.
00:39:50
Speaker
So I think there's more pressure on the bills this year than the Ravens, which kind of seems backwards. Cause you'd say the Ravens have a better roster. Um, probably a more proven head coach who has a super bowl already.
00:40:02
Speaker
But to me, it's, it's the bills, Time is ticking. Time is really ticking for them. I feel like there's more pieces in Baltimore. There's more buy-in and and like that, their window slightly bigger, but I just think there's so much money going towards Josh Allen that's taken away from a lot of other pieces.
00:40:18
Speaker
And, you know, they've been kind of the closer of the two teams, I would argue over the past three years. yeah And it's time for them to step up, Josh to back up his MVP year and go in and take that step. And like, who knows? We could be living in a world where it's in Baltimore, Buffalo, AFC championship.
00:40:36
Speaker
And, you know, the chiefs aren't in the picture and it's like, Hey, one of these two teams has to take the next step. Um, but I do kind of agree with Vegas and like, these are the two teams where I guess Philly's in there. It's tied with the bills as well, which, you know nothing is, is, you know, jumping out at me in the Superbowl lines. Like, I think they got it pretty, pretty correct right now.
00:40:56
Speaker
Obviously we'll see how the season plays out. But, uh, to me it's, it's yeah. Buffalo and Baltimore, you got to step up. Uh, Baltimore has got a great roster, you know know, Justin Tucker this year, which will be interesting. I mean, I don't know if that's better for worse because he was not great last year at all.
00:41:13
Speaker
ah So we'll see what what Tyler Loop has for us. Just such a kicker name, Tyler Loop. ah Yeah, so I don't know. But one of these two teams has to do it. And like if you're them and you see Kansas City go to another Super Bowl this year, your season's a failure.
00:41:29
Speaker
There's just no other way looking. like One of these two teams has to get to a Super Bowl. And and you you almost can't let Kansas City, if you're not going to get there, it's got to be some other team to do it out the AFC. It really does, because I think that would just break these teams mentally if they were if Kansas City just got to another Super Bowl. I also think if it was a team that wasn't one of these two teams, it would also break them mentally like it.
00:41:53
Speaker
It has to be one or the other. ah And so much on the line for both of these teams. You're right, though. Like with the Bills, there's this weird feeling where I think we actually had a very similar feeling going into the season last year for the Bills, where they had this really tough schedule off rip, which they plowed through.
00:42:13
Speaker
But it it was this weird kind of background feeling where it felt like this roster wasn't good enough. We will see if that is the case. We'll we'll move into divisions now. This feels like a a nice place to start is the AFC East. Because like you said, they add Joey Bosa.
00:42:30
Speaker
They add Josh Palmer, who... you know For what it's worth, Josh Palmer through training camp seemed to be getting a ton of nods in this offense, um but they lose Von Miller. Obviously, wasn't playing a ton last year, so it's not the biggest loss. They lose Rasul Douglas to the Dolphins, um and For the Bills, there's not a whole lot of movement on this team.
00:42:54
Speaker
It's more of, it seems to be a mental block, a a block where it does feel like Josh Allen has to do a lot. I still think they comfortably win the AFC East this year. I don't think that's really in question.
00:43:08
Speaker
But for the Bills, it's almost like the Leafs. I hate to make that comparison, but it your season doesn't start until the playoffs. Yeah, that's the biggest thing they have going for them. Like they're the biggest favorite to win their division.
00:43:20
Speaker
ah Minus 260. You've won it the past couple years pretty easily. I think the division almost took a step backwards as well of the teams below them. And yeah, like you said, like They're primed to get the the buy.
00:43:35
Speaker
It just based off their division, I think teams will get to like the AFC West, but I think other teams kind of improve there to put some pressure on Kansas City. ah Baltimore, we all know the AFC North is going to be a ah ah bit of a ah battle as well.
00:43:48
Speaker
So I think that's the number one thing the Bills have going for them. And that's kind of what I was saying, but there's more pressure. like You're going to get the one seed, two at worst, it feels like with this division. um So it's nice to see, like you said, just avoid injuries. like you know Just go and cruise and go six and zero in your divisional games and then big games against Baltimore or whatever. like You can lose one or two because you know you can fall back on a weaker division.
00:44:14
Speaker
Will they go 6-0? Maybe not, but they were undefeated at home last year, which is a huge thing. like Buffalo home field is dangerous, especially as the winter starts to come into play. it gets cold, snowy.
00:44:26
Speaker
They know how to play in those games. ah But to me, it's I'm looking at two teams in this division other than Buffalo. um I'm just going to choose to ignore the New York Jets this year. I don't i don't know about you. They...
00:44:38
Speaker
um'm They're not on my trajectory to do anything. They could very easily be the worst team in the NFL. yeah you'll Go get your top five pick and you know what to see you next year. like the The Jets are just not on my radar at all this year. no like two The two teams in the middle, though, one took a step forward, one took maybe a little bit of a step back, or at least didn't improve on what they had last year, and that's the Patriots maybe taking a step up, second favorites to win the division at 5-1, and then the Dolphins.
00:45:07
Speaker
I'll say just stayed level in our third favorites at 750. Let's talk about it because you would think the Dolphins heading into this season based on media coverage are the New Orleans Saints or the or the New York Jets.
00:45:23
Speaker
The state of the Dolphins in the media is has gotten so ridiculously overblown, and I obviously am wearing a Dolphins hat as I'm saying this,
00:45:36
Speaker
But I just think it it's a bit of a ridiculous overreaction for this team, especially for a team that was dealing with a lot, a lot of injuries, especially on the defensive side of the football last year. And all this to say about a team that still won, what was it, 10 games last year they won?
00:45:58
Speaker
So it's it's a lot of it overreaction. yeah Eight and nine. What was it? nine hundred Eight, nine for the dolphins last year. Missed the playoffs.
00:46:09
Speaker
Three, four, five, six, seven, eight. I was counting preseason. All right. That's on me. That's on me. um And, and, but back to the point, ah I think that adding Minkah Fitzpatrick was huge, especially at the safety position. I think ever since losing Javon Holland, there's been a bit of a gap at safety on this team, even with Jalen Ramsey kind of, you know, trying to plug those holes.
00:46:32
Speaker
I think that, Getting a guy like Ollie Gordon is huge for this team trying to you know kind of revamp how they play football, playing a bit more hard-nosed. It seems like he's getting a ton of touches.
00:46:43
Speaker
I thought adding Kenneth Grant as a run-stopper in the draft was huge. And then you're getting guys back like a Jalen Phillips, like a Bradley Chubb. Chop Robinson is one of the more promising young players on the defensive side of the football in the league.
00:46:59
Speaker
I just think that a lot of this has gotten very overblown. Recently, they have a relatively easy schedule. It's 24th in the NFL per tank-a-thon to the to the point that, you know, we'll get to our week one picks later. They're not favored against the Indianapolis c Colts with Daniel Jones at quarterback. I just think that is a sign of how overblown things have gotten when talking about the Dolphins.
00:47:27
Speaker
I would absolutely agree with that. yeah To me, the biggest issue with it is, like I said, for me, it's just like Miami's just didn't really improve. That doesn't mean they got worse. I would just say it's you you can expect to almost the exact same team.
00:47:39
Speaker
Obviously, no Jalen Ramsey, no Johnny Smith. Mink is in play now. couple other pieces around. you know Zach Wilson's on the roster this year. ah But to me, it's it's the media not necessarily going against Miami, but they're just fall falling in love with the new shiny toy.
00:47:55
Speaker
That's the New England Patriots. it It I'm and I'm not so high on the Patriots. They'll obviously be a better team than they were last year. They're similarly a team that benefits from an easy schedule. They have the second easiest schedule in the NFL.
00:48:11
Speaker
But I don't know. i'm I'm seeing people saying the Patriots easily make the playoffs. Like, I'm just I don't know if I'm that bought in yet. Yeah, no, I'm not. I don't think they're, I think they're far from a lock from the playoffs. Like they were five and 12 last year.
00:48:25
Speaker
um You know, they added digs, which is a nice piece. Milton Williams is a great ah piece on on the D line and Morgan Moses isn't bad as well of as a tackle.
00:48:36
Speaker
But to just expect them to go from five and 12 to say 10 and seven, 11 and six is a bit of a stretch. And who knows what's going to happen with Drake May, you know, at all the attentions on Jaden Daniels to take the sophomore slump.
00:48:50
Speaker
No one's really talking about Drake May to do it. He had a great second half of the year last year. Is that progression going to continue? um But yeah, I mean, New England is definitely going to be a better team. Like you said, they have an easier schedule as well, but I don't think they have a chance to win the division. I think I don't know. i think they're far from a lock ah to make the playoffs. And I think you could see Miami and New England finish with very, very similar records at the end of the year.
00:49:17
Speaker
Yeah, I agree. I think part of that is the Mike Vrabel effect. I think that Vrabel, you know, when he joins a team, there is this shine on them as, you know, a coach who's very hard nose, very closer to a Bill Belichick style of culture that he'll probably inject into this team.
00:49:35
Speaker
um Yeah, i I just think the Patriots, similar to the Bears, are the ultimate wait and see team where it's like, I need to see this from the Patriots in order to believe in them. I'm not just off rip buying that this team goes from exactly doubling their win total from last year.
00:49:53
Speaker
Yeah, is prove it to us. ah But I think that's the biggest reason why you're seeing some negative light on Miami. It's because I think people are falling in love with the New England Patriots and you know what they might be building over there. not Not necessarily to say Miami got worse. I think people really think New England got a lot better.
00:50:11
Speaker
i think they improved, but not to the point where people are... People think they could be a dark horse of wind division. I think you're insane. Like it's just, I don't know. At week two, we're going to see it. The Patriots have to go to Miami in week two.
00:50:24
Speaker
It's when it's still hot. You're on the blazing sidelines of Miami in the sun. Dolphins, as we know, are very good at home early in the season. um that that's when that's when we'll see who's really made of what can't wait.
00:50:38
Speaker
Yeah, can't wait. Can't wait either. And people I would I would like to add are forgetting how good to it can be when he's healthy. um But we will move to the AFC North, like we mentioned earlier, where this was a division that.
00:50:51
Speaker
Similarly, didn't have a ton of roster overhaul. I think the team that you could point to having the most was the Steelers, like we mentioned. ah The Ravens, a team kind of similar to the Bills that did not change a lot. They added DeAndre Hopkins. They added Jair Alexander, kind of similar to the Bills with Joey Bosa and Josh Palmer, probably upgraded versions of both of those players.
00:51:17
Speaker
um But a team that relatively stayed the same and still has kind of a firm grasp on what I would think is winning the division. Yeah, ah Baltimore the rightful favorite to win there. Cincinnati in second at plus 240. Steelers third at plus 550. Then the Browns 30-1.
00:51:37
Speaker
um It's a little bit shocking. i But it's the Browns, man. they're They're so back. They're back to what they are. ah But yeah, to me, Baltimore obviously is... is the standard in the division right now.
00:51:50
Speaker
And it's going to it's going to take some teams. like You got to prove it to everyone else that you can get up there and beat them ah and steal this division. ah To me, like you said, the pitt Steelers probably had the most you know turnover of their roster.
00:52:03
Speaker
changes, you know, biggest kind of question mark, I guess you could say you don't exactly know what you're going to get from the Steelers. But to me, an even bigger question mark is the Cincinnati Bengals. I think last year was a massive disappointment of a season.
00:52:16
Speaker
ah Their defense was just downright horrible. Their offensive line was, you know, just as bad and nothing seemed to be easy for them. Even if Joe Burrow was throwing for 400 yards and three touchdowns,
00:52:30
Speaker
they were losing games in shootouts and then when it would be a tighter game they would find a ah ah way to lose in um in a tight battle you know jamar chase and t higgins both got their big money this offseason so i think you know t higgins isn't going to be holding out we'll see how his injury troubles go but like The wide receivers are happy.
00:52:50
Speaker
They brought in a bunch of guys on the defensive line. I don't know how, you know, BJ Hill, TJ Slayton, like guys like that, that are going to hopefully help their defense a little bit.
00:53:01
Speaker
But to me, I just don't think they did enough in the key spots for them to be plus 240 to win this division. i think they should be more in the Steelers territory at like, you know, four to one plus.
00:53:15
Speaker
Like, I think it's the the Ravens are the best team in this division. And to me, i think everyone just kind of has fallen in love with Cincinnati, with, you know, Joe Burrow. And I think Chase Brown is a nice piece. And I think he's going to be a great running back this year.
00:53:29
Speaker
i just think their defense is so, so questionable. And I don't think their offensive line is that good. And I think you could see, a a very similar result to their nine and eight season last year. I just, to me, they didn't do enough to really and improve.
00:53:45
Speaker
So to me, my eyes are mainly on the Cincinnati Bengals in this division. Yeah. And, and remember ah towards the end of last season where it was like this weird narrative that people are scared of the Bengals. And like that, that was a really odd time where it was mostly because of how, how well Joe Burrow was playing, but ah it was this weird thing where people were really overvaluing the Bengals. And I think you're right in, in saying that I think a lot of, you know, similar things are happening right now to start this season with the Bengals. It's all,
00:54:20
Speaker
all about how they start. It seems like the the last few years, there's been some nightmare starts in Cincinnati. They have a much easier start to the season this year in terms of going Browns, Jaguars, Vikings.
00:54:33
Speaker
But then again, i don't really trust them. that They played the Patriots to start the year last year and lost. um So I agree in thinking that They did not do enough at key positions to really buy into the Bengals right now.
00:54:48
Speaker
Another like there's a whole bunch of teams that are just in the wait and see category. I think the Bengals fall into that category for me, too, um where, you know, I feel a lot more positive, at least with the changes that the Steelers made um rather than the changes that the Bengals made.
00:55:05
Speaker
The Browns are one of those teams where similar, i think we might have one team like that in almost every division that we preview here where it's like not even really worth talking about.
00:55:16
Speaker
Yeah, i agree. It was talking about this QB situation. I don't say a bit of an off season mess with Shader and Dylan Gabriel and, you know, Joe Flacco, who is always going to be their starter, was named their starter.
00:55:29
Speaker
They traded Kenny Pickett away. ah Deshawn's on the IL. It, it, Weird situation. um I think there's value on Myles Garrett to win defense player a year. Maybe that's what they got going for them. But yeah, I think it's going to be a weird year in Cleveland.
00:55:46
Speaker
um And yeah, 30 to one is shocking though. Just to see like the Jets being like 16 to win one to win the division. And then you see the Browns at 30 to one. i That is so disrespectful to them and I don't mind it.
00:55:59
Speaker
It really is. um We'll stick in the AFC here, moving to the AFC South with a division that I think, especially in the AFC, maybe in the whole league had the biggest turnover.
00:56:10
Speaker
Pretty much every one of these teams really has kind of rapidly changed their roster over the last year. Starting with the Texans, we'll get to our he's there now ah section later. But i Nick Chubb going to the Texans did not cross my desk for some reason.
00:56:28
Speaker
Like a few weeks ago, I think it was when I was preparing for fantasy drafts. That one hit me like a truck. I was like, he's on the Texans now. And he could be having a pretty big role to start the season with Joe Mixon missing the first four games guaranteed.
00:56:43
Speaker
So Nick Chubb is probably going to get some looks. Damian Pierce as well. Uh, so like that's going to be an interesting situation on monitor early for the Houston Texans. Um, a lot of turnover, a lot of fun additions in this division, but to me, it's still just the worst division in the world.
00:56:59
Speaker
Um, yeah, it's, you know, Number one overall pick, Cam Ward. ah That's going to be an exciting storyline for Tennessee this year. At least they have something watch and care about, and there's some hope in Tennessee.
00:57:13
Speaker
ah Jacksonville, trading up big. Let's go out and get Travis Hunter. How are they going to use him this year? um I can't really get a read on it. He played both sides of the ball in preseason. Seemed to be on a so ah limited snap count. Makes sense.
00:57:27
Speaker
And then the Colts, man. What a mess. ah Anthony Richardson, you know, it feels like they've given up on him. So I think it'd be better for him if they just, you know, bit the bullet and traded him and, you know, gave him a fresh start somewhere because they're going with Daniel Jones. And like, that's like you said, like for them to be favored over Miami in week one is pretty shocking.
00:57:50
Speaker
It's just an uninspired team. Obviously they're still dealing with like the death of their owner last year and stuff like that. To me, the Colts are a must avoid team this year.
00:58:01
Speaker
ah Jacksonville will be fun to watch with all their new toys. Brian Thomas Jr. will take another step forward. Liam Cohn is their head coach. Duvall. um And then yeah, but I liked them adding him.
00:58:13
Speaker
Exactly. But to me, it's it's the Texas division. I'm kind of surprised they're plus money to win the division here. It feels like Feels like they should be minus money and it should be a pretty comfortable season for the Texans to win the AFC South.
00:58:27
Speaker
But crazier things have happened. I'd like to see CJ Shroud bounce back a little bit. But to me, this division is just like, uh, like, I guess we'll welcome one of you guys into the playoffs, but I don't think any of these teams are going to contend for a Super Bowl.
00:58:40
Speaker
Yeah, we'll get to our future section later, but definitely Texans to win the AFC South was one of my division picks that I like just in terms of value. i i agree. we We said this earlier, but the offensive line in Houston is a mess. You lose Laramie Tunsil. I just I think CJ Stroud could get sacked a trillion times this year, and I think that's part of what kind of works into that Jaguars number on winning the division.
00:59:06
Speaker
especially with Liam Cohen at at head coach, kind of similar to that Vrabel effect where there's been a lot of struggles offensively in Jacksonville that adding a coach like that really, I think, gives them a bump.
00:59:18
Speaker
the colts The weird thing about the Colts to me is they weirdly added a lot of players to this roster. like Traverius Ward ah going to this team, and yeah who's back of the week? Zavian Howard is on the Colts this year.
00:59:32
Speaker
Cam Bynum they got from the Vikings. like they They weirdly added a lot of pieces on defense. You go out and you get Tyler Warren in the draft. like There are weirdly these players that kind of make you excited about the Colts. And then you remember that Daniel Jones is at quarterback and how ugly that got last year in New York.
00:59:54
Speaker
they They are a puzzling, puzzling team where if they're on the not so fun side of things, I feel like the Titans are on the fun side of things this year in terms of watching the trajectory of both of these teams.
01:00:07
Speaker
Yeah, the the the Titans and the Jaguars are on my fun teams this year. Like they shouldn't have expectation. Just kind of watch, you know, i think. We don't know what we're going to get from Cam Ward this year. I'm hopeful of him. I liked what i saw in college. I think he's at least got his legs to rely on to get him out of some some troubling spots.
01:00:28
Speaker
And then, yeah, I mean, like how are how is Jacksonville going to use Travis Hunter? Can Brian Thomas, you know, continue to get better and become maybe a top five receiver in the league? Who knows? And can Trevor Lawrence kind of bounce back after a bit of a you know, downward two year trend, shall we say, with with T law in the Jaguars. But yeah, to me, it's bit of a boring division, but that's OK. A lot of fun things can come from a boring division. We'll we'll we'll wait and see with this one.
01:00:55
Speaker
Yeah, I'm going to keep a running list here for the end of the the podcast with fun teams and not fun teams. I'm going to add the Jags and the Titans to the fun teams, not fun teams. I think um we already have have listed the Jets and the Browns, and I think that makes perfect sense. um We'll move to the last division in the AFC here. AFC West, starting obviously with the Chiefs, the you know, the class of the AFC West.
01:01:23
Speaker
I think if they won the division this year, it would be their 11th time in a row winning the division. I think that's the number. um And the Chiefs are a team that barely adjusted this roster whatsoever.
01:01:38
Speaker
Why? If it's broke, don't fix it um with the Chiefs. But yeah, like seriously, barely changed this roster. Yeah, and that makes makes makes perfect sense to me.
01:01:50
Speaker
Obviously, they probably have some cap ah strain there where it's like you can't really do too much, and the roster's been good. So there's really no ah glaring holes where you have to change something.
01:02:01
Speaker
ah you know Obviously, the Super Bowl was a bit of a disaster for them last season, but it's not enough to be like concerned about the team. They've got to the Super Bowl again, and they just keep finding ways to win the AFC when everyone thinks that it's time for Baltimore Buffalo to step up and take their turn.
01:02:18
Speaker
Kansas City says, nope, you're still below us. You're going to keep waiting. We're not done yet. two x you know We'll see. people This is like the first year where people are starting to kind of not be down on Kansas City. But like you said, like you look at the odds, Buffalo and Baltimore ahead of them. You haven't seen that in the past couple of years. ah You know, Travis Kelsey with that whole off season kind of stuff. People are thinking that's going to ah leak into his play this season. We'll see.
01:02:47
Speaker
um But I don't know. ah To me, the Kansas City Chiefs are are what they are. if you like You kind of know what you're getting from them. Mahomes would probably like to avoid some lower body injuries this year.
01:02:59
Speaker
I think those can add up, and he's had a couple. think you're going to see him kind of stay in the pocket a bit more maybe try and avoid rushing until later in the season and in the playoffs. To me, the ah the other teams are, these are also just kind of fun question marks. I don't know if they're necessarily fun teams, but a lot of teams. one fun team, and I think it's the Raiders.
01:03:22
Speaker
Yeah, because yeah, Gentry, Geno Smith, Pete Carroll is going to be of a ball on the sideline. There's no real expectations in Vegas, so i would agree with that. ah They brought back Amari Cooper pretty recently.
01:03:34
Speaker
Some fun things could happen in Vegas. um They'll definitely be better than they were last year. like They actually have a quarterback that can play the position this year, which is nice. I'm not as high on Ashton Gentry as a lot of other people are.
01:03:46
Speaker
I kind of hated what I saw from him in preseason. Don't, I'm not putting that much stock into preseason, but I just didn't love it. And I don't, he's like the college Saquon. He has so much tread on the tires already where I'm like, you know, we'll see what happens. I'm not, I don't think he's going to stink, but I just, I'm not that high on him going, like, I don't think he should be, I wouldn't bet him to win offensive rookie of the year.
01:04:11
Speaker
That's all I'm saying. ah Chargers and Broncos are two teams where they're kind of waiting to take that next step to win the division. Have they done enough? I don't think the Chargers have. I think Denver at least has tried to make the improvements necessary to give them their best shot. um But for for now, it's just like it's it feels like you can pencil in Kansas City every single year. No matter how they look, they find a way to get it done. so Yeah, the I saw video from Nick Wright, which, you know, obviously take with a ah million grains of salt, but about the starting quarterbacks that Denver beat last year.
01:04:49
Speaker
And it's ah it is not a good list. Like they beat a lot of teams who had quarterbacks who either aren't starting this year or weren't starters last year.
01:05:03
Speaker
ah Like they beat. Atlanta with Kirk Cousins. They beat Vegas with Gardner Minshew when he was playing. and the And the teams they lost to were, you know, Baltimore with Lamar Jackson starting, Kansas City ah with Patrick Mahomes starting, Los Angeles with Herbert starting, Seattle with Geno Smith starting. Like if you go back and look at their season last year, they they beat up on a lot of bad teams with bad quarterbacks.
01:05:33
Speaker
Part of that was them being so bad the year before. ah that they you know got a much easier schedule. I think similar to the commanders, now that you know teams have a whole season of Bo Nix to look at, and now that the Broncos have a much harder schedule than they did last year. I think this is one of those teams that you could see a pretty decent regression from, uh, from last year.
01:05:59
Speaker
Like it's, they're up in the air in this team. I don't see the Broncos as like a lock to make the playoffs where I feel like there's either people are really high on the Broncos or people are, are, you know, a bit doubtful on what they can do this year.
01:06:15
Speaker
Yeah, i'm I'm a bit higher on the Broncos than you are. like I think bringing in Dre Greenlaw, Hafunga, and you know Evan Ingram are are great pieces. The running game was a massive, massive problem last year.
01:06:27
Speaker
ah So they obviously you know drafted RJ Harvey, bringing in J.K. Dobbins. Don't really know how that's going to look week one. like I don't know who's getting the touches. i don't know if they're splitting carries. And obviously, J.K. Dobbins has had some pretty...
01:06:41
Speaker
serious injury history, uh, in his NFL career. So that's going to be something to keep an eye on, but in a perfect world, they are able to run the ball a little bit more, take some stress off of bone nicks. And then their defense I think is much improved.
01:06:54
Speaker
Uh, so yeah, like, uh, Yeah, like you said, people are either really high on the Broncos or or you know staying away and avoiding them. But I think they at least, as opposed to the Chargers, I think they made the most changes necessary to be that next team to at least challenge Kansas City and possibly win the division.
01:07:12
Speaker
Yeah, yeah, it's a Broncos again, wait and see team for me. um But like we said, I think the Raiders will be fun to watch ah in terms of, you know, some some more offensive power firepower, how gente looks in the NFL, how Geno Smith looks.
01:07:27
Speaker
um saw another podcast going through Gino Smith, kind of similar to Jared Goff that we did the preview last year where Gino Smith apparently plays significantly better in domed stadiums.
01:07:39
Speaker
And I think he only plays outside four times in the regular season this year. So something to keep an eye on there. Um, we'll move, Over to the NFC now, and we'll start in the NFC East where there are two not fun teams, I would say, just off the bat in this division um with the Giants and the Cowboys.
01:08:02
Speaker
ah The Giants are certainly a not fun team. The Cowboys at least have, you know, Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, now George Pickens that will maybe make some of these games fun, but...
01:08:14
Speaker
How about we start with them losing Mika Parsons? That seems like such a blow to this team, to the fan base, to losing what looks like a generational player before you've even played a game this season.
01:08:28
Speaker
Yeah, man. it's It's Jerry Jones at his best. This whole saga is... You know, players hold out all the time in the NFL, especially, and they always want their money. And at least Micah Parsons is doing it when he's still kind of in the prime of his career. Like he's 25 years old.
01:08:47
Speaker
um You're not paying him for what he's done. Well, i guess you are paying him for what he's done. He's had a pretty successful start to his career, but you're also paying for the future. And like he's he's far from done. Obviously, he had one or two injuries, but I don't think that's you know a real concern for Micah.
01:09:02
Speaker
And yeah, Jerry just wouldn't wouldn't bow down on this one. And it must have reached a boiling point. he Jerry kept saying he wanted the agent out of it, but that's just not the reality of the sport like the business, Jerry. You've been in this long enough where you know that the agent was going to be in there the entire time.
01:09:20
Speaker
ah He wanted just deal with Micah Parsons. i don't I don't really get it, but apparently that was enough to say, screw it. And he traded him. Kenny Clark and two first round picks. um It's shocking because it's not like the Cowboys were going to you know win the division. They may have been a borderline playoff team in the and NFC.
01:09:40
Speaker
Now, now I don't really see much hope for them. They feel like they have eight, nine written all over them. ah I might push back a little bit on the not fun. team I think George Pickens makes any team fun.
01:09:52
Speaker
Yeah. And Dak's going to have that throw a couple hilarious interceptions and Yeah, I mean, they're not going to be exciting, but I think they could have some fun fun clips and fun moments from the from just the kind of disasters. Plus, Jerry Jones, man, you're going to get some great clips from him.
01:10:09
Speaker
ah But yeah, Dallas... In the tanker a little bit. like They definitely took a step back from last year, even though they added George Pickens. They also have zero running game from what i what I'm seeing.
01:10:20
Speaker
they and you know Last season, it was similar to the Jets when Aaron Rodgers got injured in that first year where they had already pre-planned like a zillion primetime games and we had to watch this horrible Jets team in primetime.
01:10:35
Speaker
That was an awful thing about last season was... that just seeing Dallas get waxed like a million times in primetime. they Again, they have a quarter of their games are in primetime this year. i think they have six primetime games. like They start the season, obviously, opening game of the season.
01:10:55
Speaker
Then in week four, they're on Sunday night football. In week nine, they're on Monday night football. Week 11, Monday night football. week 15 Sunday night football. Like it it is that one's getting flexed.
01:11:07
Speaker
Calling it now. Calling it now. Week 14 Sunday, Thursday night football. um So this could be a very similar season in terms of having to watch a Dallas team that is not very good. Just get pushed into Sunday night football.
01:11:21
Speaker
um But yeah, it's, I can't imagine being very excited for your season if you're a Cowboys fan, but
NFC East and North Predictions
01:11:27
Speaker
who knows? Maybe this is one of those teams that just surprises people. They just re-signed Deron Bland to a lot of money, which thought was... That just seemed like an you from Jerry. That's like such an overpay for... Deron Bland's fine. He's a fine corner, but...
01:11:42
Speaker
I just when I had to double take when I saw the deal, I saw the timing of it, too. Like it's the timing of that coming out like yesterday and and just kind of getting buried, but also being, yeah, very out in the open as being like, oh, well, we paid this defensive guy.
01:12:00
Speaker
Um, the giants not going to be fun. Like maybe Jackson dark gets in. I think that that giants fans are maybe hoping to see that and just have some spark in their season. Maybe Jameis makes it exciting.
01:12:12
Speaker
Another team like the Browns were very interesting QB situation. And then we obviously talked about the commanders a lot earlier, um, of what their expectations are for this season, what it's going to look like.
01:12:26
Speaker
Um, yeah, this is a team. driven division with the Eagles at the top and then the commanders shortly ah behind. But yeah, a weird division in terms of previewing for sure.
01:12:38
Speaker
Yeah, I think... I think if you're looking at this division, I think you can almost bet the finishing order. yeah On FanDuel, you can do Eagles first, Commanders second, Cowboys third, Giants fourth at four to one if you're looking for a fun future. bad.
01:12:54
Speaker
It just feels like it's set in stone to me. yeah Obviously, injuries and things like that can happen, but this to me is like the first division where I'm like... I feel pretty confident and i know that I know what's going happen. Maybe the the commanders are that team that can either rise up or fall down. We don't exactly know where they stand. We talked we got into that earlier.
01:13:14
Speaker
ah But to me, it's... ah It is what it looks like. You know i it's one of those divisions where you know what you're getting into. ah Dallas's ah offense is to have to bail them out of so many games, and they really haven't proven that they have that explosive of an offense. So, i yeah, it's it is what it is.
01:13:31
Speaker
ah Kind of fun division, just with a lot of history in these teams. But to me, it's just the Eagles are going to probably win that division and possibly get a 1C because of how tough the next division that we'll preview is most likely going to be this year.
01:13:44
Speaker
Yeah, Dak Prescott to lead in passing yards is at plus 750, and in passing touchdowns, he's at plus 1500. So those are two where a guy could be throwing the ball 70 times a game.
01:13:57
Speaker
um NFC North, another division where we've kind of talked about teams a lot in already in terms of the Lions and the Bears, obviously we touched on earlier. um But in in terms of that you know middle of the Packers and the Vikings, two teams that I am...
01:14:13
Speaker
on completely different wavelengths going into this season. I think in terms of the Packers, I really am high on the Packers this year. I think that I like Matthew Golden. I think that, you know, once once a number one can rise in that offense, I think it'll change a lot of how that offense looks.
01:14:31
Speaker
You still have Josh Jacobs back there who is, you know, to me still a bell cow in this league. And then the Vikings, dude, like I am so low on the Viking. I think they could have like the most drastic change from last year to this year. And it all lands on the shoulders of JJ McCarthy.
01:14:50
Speaker
Yeah, man. they are they They are such a question mark. I just don't know. Nobody knows who we're getting from JJ. ah People can tell you what they think they're going to get. People can tell you he's either going to be good, he's going to be bad.
01:15:01
Speaker
Nobody knows. He missed the entire year last year with the the injury. He didn't He handed the ball off a lot off in college. That is the reality of it. He won games. He's a national champion winner.
01:15:13
Speaker
ah But to me, I just feel like it was an interesting pick from the Vikings when it happened. ah They had a chance to you know bring back Darnold this year. They said, you know we're going to move on and you can enjoy the greener pastures elsewhere.
01:15:29
Speaker
and it's JJ's show to to run now. And I just don't know the good The best thing he has going for him is he has a top three receiver in Justin Jefferson. They just brought in Adam Thielen, which I think is a huge veteran for him.
01:15:40
Speaker
And then Jordan Addison will be a key piece when he returns from suspension. So he's got a lot of pieces around him. Aaron Jones is no slouch at running back. ah ah We'll see if he you know is the starter the whole year. There's some talk about that.
01:15:54
Speaker
But to me, and Hawkinson too, like I don't want to forget about the tight end. Like he has pieces around him, which is his saving grace right now. And not to mention Kevin O'Connell is a bit of a quarterback guru as a coach.
01:16:06
Speaker
So he's probably not going to put him in bad spots this year. You're right. Like I, I'm not high on the Vikings, but I mean, if, if Kevin O'Connell turned Sam Donald into what he was last year, I think he can do something similar with JJ McCarthy, maybe to a lesser extent because Sam Donald does have NFL experience and he's, you know, played in this league.
01:16:29
Speaker
They just got to find a way to get this game to slow down for JJ in his first couple of starts and then, you know, kind of go from there. i expect there's lot of quick passes, getting the ball into his playmakers hands for the first couple games the this season.
01:16:41
Speaker
Yeah, especially quick fantasy talk. I think they will be handing off the ball a lot in this ah offense. So in terms of Vikings running backs, but yeah, it is. It's just all there in all up in the air in terms of how JJ McCarthy reacts to NFL pressure to the speed of the game.
01:16:59
Speaker
i think you're right in saying that Kevin O'Connell is a huge benefit to this team and how he and his history in dealing with the You know rookie quarterbacks, younger quarterbacks, developing quarterbacks, guys like Sam Darnold. So, yeah, it's I'm just very interested to see this Vikings team because I think they could be terrible or I think they they could be like a surprisingly good
NFC South and West Analysis
01:17:22
Speaker
team. There's really no in between.
01:17:24
Speaker
Like this team either goes like wins four games or is like a bubble playoff team. Yeah, and I think they're the odds-on seventh favorite to make the playoffs. you know, FanDuel has them right ah as the last spot in in the NFC.
01:17:41
Speaker
um But yeah, Green Bay, obviously that Micah move pushed them to be favorites in this division. A lot of that's going to come down to Jordan Love this year. ah Like you said, I think Josh Jacobs is a pretty underrated running back in this league. And then, you know, Matthew Golden is a first-round pick, which you don't see the Packers do too often with a wide receiver.
01:18:00
Speaker
You'd like to see Jaden Reed have a healthy season this year as well. And, you know, somebody's got to take that number one role. Like you said, who it's going to be, nobody really knows. And then the Bears.
01:18:11
Speaker
Yeah, I don't know. It's just a lot of, we already went there. Like, I just don't know what to expect from the Bears and the Lions. The Lions have as good of a chance as the Packers do to win this division. A lot of it's going to come down to these divisional games. Like the Packers and Lions play each other twice a year.
01:18:26
Speaker
I think they're playing week two. believe so. I believe so. They play early in the year and that's like and under, it's not under the radar, but it's just a massive game that early in the season.
01:18:37
Speaker
Uh, divisional matchup. It's Lions on Sunday. Yeah. Okay. So I knew was right away. So yeah. Um, massive game week one. And, uh, you know, that's up there with the bills and, and Ravens of just like a huge matchup.
01:18:50
Speaker
Uh, so yeah, we'll see, but I think this is a bit of a two horse race here. And I think either of the top two teams can win this division. Well said, we'll move to the NFC South. One of those divisions where i guess similar to the AFC South is just a ton of question marks. Like it, this is one of the harder divisions ah to preview, to pick ah in terms of division winners.
01:19:14
Speaker
I feel like even the books don't have a great great read on this. Tampa Bay's favored at minus one Oh five. The Falcons are right behind at plus two 10 and the Panthers are, you know,
01:19:25
Speaker
not super far behind at plus 430. The Falcons, I think, that are a team where you think about the end of last season, you think about Michael Panix kind of showing up to this ah offense.
01:19:38
Speaker
it It seemed to kind of be like a bit of a jolt to this offense and how they operate. i'm I'm pretty excited to see how the Falcons look as a, as a whole unit, both on offense and on defense, I feel like they're a team that is kind of primed to take a step forward this year.
01:20:01
Speaker
But I just sound like a broken record at this point. This is another wait and see team for me on whether, whether it all like shapes together. I'm just not sure. I was pretty critical of the Atlanta Falcons throughout last season.
01:20:15
Speaker
um And I don't know if this is a good or a bad thing, but I'm kind of high on them too this season. I think they can win this division. I think Tampa's the rightful favorite, but I think Atlanta, if they can continue to build on that, Drake London was like,
01:20:29
Speaker
you know, underutilized, I would say with Kirk Cousins. And you saw that he can be a top 10 receiver in this league at the second half of the season last year. Darnell Mooney's a nice, you know, complimentary piece that offense. Panics just looked in control. And then you have Bijan Robinson, who's you know The do-it-all running back, ah so and you expect him to take another step forward.
01:20:51
Speaker
The defense is to have to step up ah again. you know It's a younger defense, so you yeah another year ah forward, you'd like to see them take another step as well. um To me, the Panthers are a massive question mark as well in this division.
01:21:05
Speaker
They made some key you know acquisitions. Bryce Young finally got some confidence going down the stretch last year. um But I just don't think that they're... Plus 430 to win the window division seems crazy to me. I still think they finished below 500, but take a couple key steps forward into building something in Carolina.
01:21:26
Speaker
And then the Saints... I think the Saints are my pick to come last in the NFL, have the worst record. I think like Spencer Rattler versus Tyler Schuh.
01:21:37
Speaker
ah Rattler's starting the year as the starting quarterback. Very scary. um And yeah, and then Tampa. Tampa is just like won the division past four years, I believe, maybe three or four years, and they're looking to do it again. And I think they are primed to do that.
01:21:53
Speaker
But I think it's time that a team kind of steps up and ah at least competes with them. And I think that's the Atlanta Falcons this year. Yeah, I think the Falcons are a fun team. I think the Falcons slide right into that that fun team in terms of watching them.
01:22:07
Speaker
Interested to see also how their first round picks. like They spent a lot of draft capital on defense in terms of James Pierce Jr., Jalen Walker, um who I both think are slated not to start right now, which is interesting.
01:22:20
Speaker
um But that's a question mark I have. Like you said about the Panthers, a lot of question marks for them going into the season. I think They could be a fun team. They could also not be a fun team. It's really up in the air.
01:22:33
Speaker
Saints are certifiably not fun. um But yeah, it's ah this division just has so many question marks. And then it feels like the steady Eddie of this division is that Bucs team.
01:22:44
Speaker
I'm very excited to see how Amika Buka works out. Like another guy who seemingly through camp has had a lot of praise thrown his way. Obviously, you've seen him play a ton at Ohio State like that.
01:22:57
Speaker
That's somebody who I have an eye on, maybe even for rookie of the year. Yeah, he's going to be reliable. That is something that I can guarantee about Emeka Ibuka. He's going to be reliable. he He's not going to be your <unk> goingnna he's not goingnna do everything exceptionally, but he's going to catch the ball when you throw it to him in a spot where he should catch it.
01:23:16
Speaker
ah So I think he's going to quickly build a relationship with Baker Mayfield. you know Like you said, we've kind of seen that in preseason up to this point. And I think with Jalen McMillan starting the season injured,
01:23:27
Speaker
He's going to be thrust right into that wide receiver number two role. And it's his opportunity to kind of take it and run with it. And we all know what Mike Evans is, you know, deep threat, red zone threat. Ibuka is going to get a lot of looks in the middle of the field on, you know, first and second down kind of thing.
01:23:43
Speaker
um So yeah, I'm excited to see it. I think I think he is as good as some of those guys of the past Ohio State receivers, but he just doesn't get the shine because he's not like, he doesn't do anything amazing, other but his best trade is he catches the ball when thrown to, which is huge in the NFL.
01:24:00
Speaker
It's big for a receiver. ah We'll move to the final division here. and NFC West with the 49ers. I think primed for an absolute bounce back here. I'm buying into the 49ers stock this year. I know a lot of people are part of that is that they have the easiest schedule in the entirety of the NFL.
01:24:22
Speaker
ah And I think for a team like that, it is huge to to get back on your feet. I think a big question mark for them is obviously at wide receiver.
01:24:34
Speaker
Like right now, Ricky Pearsall is, is Ed, you know, right there with ah Brandon Ayuk in terms of, you know, being kind of a guy who could step into a number one role.
01:24:48
Speaker
And I think that, With IU, you know, still apparently out with an injury right now, could have to step into that earlier rather than later. Same with Jawan Jennings. um But yeah, this schedule is truly a cakewalk.
01:25:02
Speaker
um But with the 49ers, it was a huge thing last year. Division games were a huge thing. And they play the Seahawks and the Cardinals within the first three weeks. So I feel like that'll be a big test for this team is winning divisional games.
01:25:16
Speaker
Absolutely. And I mean, hey, Brock Purdy got paid. ah I'm not the I'm not the number one Brock Purdy guy, ah but I understand why they kind of had to pay him. They didn't really have a ton of options otherwise.
01:25:27
Speaker
And he seems to be comfortable in this offense. And I think losing Debo Samuel isn't going to kill the 49ers. I think that's You can only have so many personalities on this team. and I think Debo was a bigger than life personality on that team. And it was kind of bringing a negative attention to a team that has, you know, Super Bowl aspirations and they have a ah greater goal and it it kind of, it wasn't working out there. So I think fresh start for both sides is ah beneficial for both as well.
01:25:55
Speaker
the The wide receivers are a question mark to me. an even bigger question mark on offense is what are we, what Christian McCaffrey are we getting? Right. He's still young enough where it's like, Hey, you are currently like in your prime, but you know, time's taken, the injuries are adding up, but when you're at your best and you're healthy,
01:26:13
Speaker
you like in my mind, is still like the number one running back. When when healthy, at his best. like He's the number one to me, a do-it-all guy. ah you know Bails his quarterback out of situations, can single-handedly win his team games.
01:26:27
Speaker
I just don't know if we're going to get that McCaffrey this year. I would like to
Player Movements and Team Dynamics
01:26:30
Speaker
see it. ah Their defense is going to be their defense. Obviously, they lost Greenlaw and Hufunga to the Broncos, but it's it's such like a defensive minded organization and team. And I mean, um Fred Warner is probably my favorite defense player in the league to watch. He just resigned.
01:26:46
Speaker
ah So like I'm not worried. Bryce Huff is another acquisition on that team. 49ers are the rightful favorites to me. The Rams have potential to win this division if Matthew Stafford finds a way to stay healthy all season.
01:26:59
Speaker
Apparently he's dead. i don't know i don't know if you've heard about this. couple rumors out there. I don't know what's going on with Stafford. They cloned him. Maybe it's Clayton Kershaw quarterback this year. I'm not 100% sure.
01:27:11
Speaker
ah But if he is alive and moving, I think they have a chance to cause some some you know make some noise in that division. And then the Cardinals, I mean...
01:27:23
Speaker
They were what they were my team last year. They were if you remember. I was going to say we have yet to pick a team, a podcast team to start the season. I can't go back yet. No, no, I can't go back to the Cardinals. What what I was going to say is speak what we were talking about last.
01:27:38
Speaker
I feel like out of all of these teams, we've lined up the most on the Falcons. Yeah, but I don't know if Zolfi wants that jinx on his team. got to look out for my buddies here. um But like it could be that could be our team.
01:27:53
Speaker
I think we were a Bucs podcast for a bit last year. You know what? it probably is the Falcons to start the year because I'm just looking at some of these other teams. you know We disagreed on the Vikings. We were low-ish on the Vikings. I'm just looking for a team like that, you know like a middle-of-the-row team.
01:28:11
Speaker
either just missed the playoffs last year or just made the playoffs last year to you know maybe take another step Yeah, I guess it is probably the Falcons. Falcons podcast. You heard it here first.
01:28:22
Speaker
that That means the magnifying glass will be a much, much higher on the Falcons. um but But staying in the NFC West, ah you know, the Rams, obviously, Matthews Everett's supposed to play on Sunday. It's his lower back, I think, is the problem.
01:28:38
Speaker
um The Seahawks, before we move out of our division previews here, Seahawks are one of those teams where i have no read on like it's almost similar to the Vikings here where Sam Darnold's going to be Sam Darnold, but the Seahawks, I just I really don't have a read on in terms of whether they're going to be good, whether they're going to be competing for this division like I i just really don't know.
01:29:04
Speaker
I believe the Seahawks, they were 10-7 last year. They're running with Sam Darnold at quarterback this year. ah Cooper Cupp is the Seahawk. you know well like couple new names, couple new faces.
01:29:18
Speaker
I think it's going to unfortunately get off to a slow start and it's going to be too much to overcome. I don't think they're going to play a factor in the division. And I think they're long shot to make the playoffs in my mind.
01:29:30
Speaker
um Like they finished, like I said, 10 and seven last year. you might You might flip that record this year. It might be a seven and 10 year. for That's where I stand on them. I'm pretty low.
01:29:41
Speaker
Um, but to me, it's to me, I don't think they got better at all. And I think they overexceeded a little bit last year. They got the new coach bump and I just, I don't see them building off of last season. I think Darnold regresses slightly and yeah, I just, I'm not, I'm not high on the Seahawks. That's where I stand on them.
01:30:01
Speaker
Yeah, neither am I don't think they'll get that 3-0 start that they did last year. um They go 49ers, Steelers, Saints, Cardinals, Bucks, Jags. like They have a ah slightly easy schedule. I don't know it's It's a bunch of teams that are kind of in that middle ground that they play. So it's just whether they are better than those teams or whether they regress this year.
01:30:21
Speaker
Yeah, Seahawks are a team I have a lot of question marks about. Same with the Cardinals. I don't even know what to make of the Cardinals. I feel like we went so deep, deep in the rabbit hole of the Cardinals last year that I am just like completely burned out with the Cardinals as a team.
01:30:35
Speaker
Yeah, I'll be staying away from the Cardinals, staying away from anything to do with Kyler Murray. yeah Just a frustrating team, and I'm sure the fans are just as frustrated. I agree. um We'll move into a quick segment here of Wait, He's There Now, um where I feel like we've done a lot of these Through our our preview here, but I'm looking for real, real deep cuts here um in terms of, you know, where certain players that you're going
Futures Betting and Surprises
01:31:05
Speaker
to see in about week four or week five and be like, he plays there now, starting to me with ah a favorite of my friend Matt's here, Rico Dowdle.
01:31:17
Speaker
Dallas to the Carolina Panthers. You're going see Rico Doudle on some, you know, second and shorts, third and shorts. and And that'll hit you that he's there now. um And and almost on on the flip side, Javante Williams going to Dallas. That's it. That's another one where you'd be like, I had no clue Javante Williams was on the Cowboys.
01:31:37
Speaker
Yeah, those are some fun ones. um i' I'll go with a pair of backup quarterbacks, which is just feels like cheating because, you know, backup quarterbacks and kind of bounce around. But these are some fun names.
01:31:48
Speaker
ah The first one specifically, Mac Jones is a San Francisco 49er this year. That is fun. And then not as fun, but just kind of like ah but a name, like maybe the number one name when you think of a backup quarterback in the NFL d in the past five to ten years Jacoby Brissett is on the Arizona Cardinals.
01:32:09
Speaker
That's also fun. That's also a lot of fun. I really like that. um Wide receivers. I had a good one. Tyler Lockett is on the Tennessee Titans. That feels like the Shaq.
01:32:21
Speaker
like Shaq on the Celtics like obviously see yeah Tyler Lockett is not Shaquille O'Neal but that is just one of those weird like uniforms feels like there's a million Tennessee Titans over the past 30 years like a Randy Moss on the Titans where it's like what is that guy doing there what are some other fun ones I touched on a little bit earlier Vaughn Miller on the commanders yes uh that's like I like, I knew that happened, but it also just left my my memory immediately.
01:32:51
Speaker
Um, yeah, to me, there's a lot of fun ones out there. Um, but I mean, one that I think you're going to enjoy a lot and maybe it's not a massive name, but, uh, he finished last year on like an absolute run of scoring touchdowns and he's now a Miami dolphin, uh, Nick Westbrook, a keen.
01:33:10
Speaker
Yes, dude. he He was a stud fantasy waiver wire pickup down the stretch last year. I think he's going to help the Dolphins. I think he's a red zone threat. And then, I mean, going off the Dolphins, actually maybe the most fun of all of them. I don't know how he didn't mention this.
01:33:25
Speaker
Darren Waller is back in the league, and he is a Miami Dolphin. Yeah, we lose Jonu Smith. we we We have our best tight end season in franchise history and lose him for now getting Darren Waller back. So that's great. But Westbrook Akine, I forgot to mention that earlier. like This team had a serious wide receiver three problem last year. And I actually think that is a hole that they plugged perfectly.
01:33:50
Speaker
like In terms of having Tyree Kill, Jalen Waddell, and Westbrook Akine is like a very, very dangerous wide receiver group. And when they're all at their best is up there in terms of the best in the NFL in terms of depth.
01:34:04
Speaker
So I actually think that's a huge move. And yeah, just Darren Waller is unbelievable that he is, he is back in the NFL and on the dolphins. So that'll be fun to watch or, or really not fun to watch.
01:34:16
Speaker
ah It could go either way. feel like tight ends switched around a lot. Noah Fant on the bangles. feel like that one's kind of fun. Tyler Conklin on the chargers. Yeah. We mentioned Evan Ingram earlier. Yeah, but lots of movement here.
01:34:30
Speaker
some of them Some of them more fun than others. Najee Harris on the Chargers. Obviously more of a mainstream, but it's go to be a for me, it's going to be a bit of a jump scare seeing him in that uniform.
01:34:43
Speaker
Yeah, the the most disrespected running back in history in terms of in terms of my my opinions on Najee Harris and that weird firework incident. It's always fireworks with these guys, man.
01:34:56
Speaker
NFL players and fireworks better, better than guns. Yeah, it is better than guns. Um, but we'll come back to you here in a second with a whole bunch of futures and then week one picks and predictions to wrap up our NFL preview. So stick around for that.
01:35:16
Speaker
All right, we're back now ah with our betting segment. Probably one of the favorites ah for for the fans I can imagine, especially with how well we did in the NFL last year. um and think Patrick was right around 500.
01:35:29
Speaker
think I finished quite over 500, not to pat myself on the own but on the back here. But ah Futures is a whole different ballgame. You're a lot more um in the future game than I am. I've only recently dipped my toes in.
01:35:42
Speaker
Shout out Vernon Adams. But futures in the NFL, whole different ballgame.
Team Win Totals and Player Futures
01:35:48
Speaker
We'll start with division winners. We've kind of mentioned a few of them ah in this podcast already.
01:35:56
Speaker
ah And starting out with the Texans to win the the AFC South at plus 110. I liked a lot. And also we were on the same page. I had written down Falcons, NFC South winner plus 210.
01:36:10
Speaker
Yeah, I'm on board with both those. like I still think the Bucs will probably win that division, but there's no... I'd like to take a shot on that one, so I'm i'm in the same boat. One, I was trying to hide where I stand on this team a little bit when we were doing these division previews, and...
01:36:28
Speaker
This one could easily burn in my face and I got no problem with that. But I think the chiefs reign of the AFC West might be done. And I'm going to, I've already bet the Broncos to win the AFC West at plus 290.
01:36:43
Speaker
um You know, you're not as high on them as I am, like I mentioned before, but I said, why not? Someone's got to take them down eventually. I don't think it's the Chargers. I don't think it's the Raiders. I think the Broncos made the moves necessary and I think they can do it.
01:36:56
Speaker
Uh, and then the other one is I'll take a shot on the Rams to win the NFC West. I don't, I don't love it, but I think there, if Stafford stays healthy, uh, talk, we didn't, I actually, now, now that we're here, I meant to mention this and, you know faces like where is he now? Devante Adams on the Rams is a nice piece to go with Pukunakua. Uh,
01:37:16
Speaker
Kyron, Kyron Williams still there. Like I said, it's going to come down to Stafford, but I'm willing to take a shot on the Rams at plus two 10, especially because I don't know which Christian McCaffrey I'm going to get.
01:37:27
Speaker
And last one, screw it. i'll I'll take the lions to win the NFC North just because ah if the If they were favored the Packers, I would haveve taken the Packers. It's just one of those where I'm just playing the odds on that one. Yep, fair enough. I actually was on the opposite side of you here. I had 49ers to win the NFC West at plus 145. I like that number a lot just in terms of their schedule. um they really you know They play the Rams twice, obviously.
01:37:52
Speaker
The Bucs, the Texans, those those are really their hardest games throughout the entirety of the season. I also had the commanders to win the NFC East at plus 220 solely based on the fact that no team in the NFC East has repeated as a champion since 2004.
01:38:08
Speaker
It's a long streak. Yeah. not that Hey, those stats don't lie. So I mean, the odds there, yeah um, win totals. Uh, these are, these are where you kind of get in the mud, uh, in terms of, you know, really calling your shot on teams,
01:38:24
Speaker
I think one for myself, i I think Dolphins over seven and a half wins at even money. is is a decent bet. it's It's not one I'm the most confident in, but I i think that's quite low. like I think eight wins is very doable for this roster if they stay healthy.
01:38:41
Speaker
um And Vikings under seven and a half wins at plus 175. They have the fourth toughest strength of schedule. Obviously that uncertainty at QB. I like the value on that Vikings play a lot.
01:38:57
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, I don't mind either of those. um I'm going to go with ah our team. I'll take the Falcons over seven and a half wins. It's a little juice down. It's at minus 135 right now.
01:39:11
Speaker
Over eight and a half, if you want to go there, it's plus money. So there's a lot of lot of value in that sense. And the other one, which is kind of going to tie into my, ah you you know, where I just came from with the Broncos is Chiefs under 11 and a half wins.
01:39:27
Speaker
I think 11 wins is a great season. I don't expect like it yeah You can still win the division with 11 wins in the AFC West. And I'm going to go under that. And then, you know, kind of by myself, I'll probably bet a couple unders of the bad teams. Like the Colts under seven and a half wins is kind of jumping out at me.
01:39:44
Speaker
Things like that nature where it's like, you know, bet on the good teams, bet against the bad teams for win totals. Yeah. Yeah. I don't hate that at all. 11 and a half is such a high wind. It's a lot. It's a lot of like your season has to go pretty much perfectly to win more than 11 games. Yeah.
01:39:59
Speaker
Yeah. No, it's a, I like that a lot. Um, player futures, uh, you know, the MVPs, the offensive player of the years, defensive player of the years, maybe a little rookie offensive rookie of the year. Um, MVP starting out strong here,
01:40:16
Speaker
I think Joe Burrow at plus 600, it's not the craziest value in terms of buy you know buying in on player awards. He was fourth in MVP voting last year. feel like this is the year where some voter fatigue will set in with the Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson debate now that they've both won an MVP.
01:40:35
Speaker
Felt like towards the end of the season, we mentioned this narrative got louder and louder. No one in the NFL gets more leeway than Joe Burrow. Like, I think if you were to pick a player that gets the benefit of the doubt, it's Joe Burrow every time.
01:40:49
Speaker
Decent odds. I think this is one that if they have a couple early season losses, you could get even more value on. um Yeah, just something I've been watching that quarterback show on on Netflix. It's something to me just sticks out that In terms of narratives, MVP is always a huge narrative award that that Joe Burrow, who hasn't won one, you know it could be his time this year.
01:41:14
Speaker
Yeah, I don't disagree with that. i'm I'm avoiding the MVP betting markets. To me, like you said, there's a lot of voter fatigue. There's a lot of just fatigue with me watching. you know It feels like it's a three, four horse race every year. And to me, I don't and don't love that as much. So I'm going to shift to offensive player of the year.
01:41:32
Speaker
ah where there's a ton of value on some guys and two guys stick out to me in particular. They're both running backs. They both catch the ball a decent amount. Uh, as Jameer Gibbs and B. John Robinson, like,
01:41:43
Speaker
I guess if I have to take one, I'll go with Bijan just because you're getting 15 to one as opposed to 13 to one. But I mean, you can bet both. And if one of them hits, you're still up a decent amount of money.
01:41:54
Speaker
ah To me, I just think these are going to be two focal points of the offenses. And you know i I think Jamar Chase should be the favorite for ah offensive player of the year for being completely honest with with each other here.
01:42:06
Speaker
um But i mean just I'll go with Gibbs and Gibbs or Robinson to win offensive player of the year. We keep lining up on the Falcons, man. I had one offensive player the year pick, and it was B. John Robinson at plus 15 to one. Like it it he had fourteen hundred yards and fourteen touchdowns on the ground last year. Sixty one catches for almost five hundred yards and a touchdown last year.
01:42:28
Speaker
It's right there. Like he he can totally win this award. Yeah, and I think the Falcons will be a better team, right? So lot of that's going to come down to Bijan. ah Knock on wood, he's got a pretty non-existent injury history, so you'd expect to get you know at least 16 games out of him, maybe sits in the last week, whatever, but I think he can do some damage this year.
01:42:50
Speaker
Moving to defense player the year, I think this one is already set. I think the writers already know who they're putting in for their ballots. I don't think the season even needs to play out. I don't like the pick. I think it's the most chalk pick I'll give you today.
01:43:02
Speaker
Micah Parsons five to one. It just feels like their minds are already made up on this one. Yeah. Yeah. I, I totally agree with you there and it's all shaping up to be for that to be the case.
01:43:16
Speaker
Um, I had a fun one here. Pat's or 10 is plus 33 to one. to win defensive play the year. There's been five players who have won back-to-back defensive players the year.
01:43:28
Speaker
lot of value on this pick. Broncos have a tougher QB schedule and and wide receiver schedule than last year. But for a guy like Sertan, I feel like you know number one corners have like a two- to four-year stretch or cycle in the NFL where it's he's still right at the start of that.
01:43:47
Speaker
where if if you want to have a fun value one to like get a bit of a horse in a race that could be otherwise, you know, pretty top heavy. i think Pats or Tan is a good choice.
01:43:59
Speaker
Yeah, I think Max Crosby holds a little bit of value at 16 to one as well. I think that's kind of like seeing Jared verse favorite over Max Crosby and Will Anderson is kind of surprising. But ah yeah, I just it's a boring pick. I just think they've already made their minds up.
01:44:14
Speaker
I don't really have any others. ah Oh, another one where another one in my mind, it's already made up Aiden Hutchinson, comeback player of the year, plus 270. not a lot of value but yeah like to me it's just like it's his yeah if if he goes on they're so funny to me like that coach of the year stuff like that is funny yeah if he goes out and gets double digit sacks he wins it yeah to me that's it's that simple uh i don't really have any other uh futures i don't know about you i got a offensive rookie of the year mika buka's at plus 16 one i i don't hate that um
01:44:50
Speaker
I don't know why that one's a bit or off. Yeah. Offensive rookie of the year, offensive defensive rookie the year is a bit tougher to predict. I find Super Bowl i had two
Super Bowl and Division Winners Predictions
01:45:00
Speaker
numbers that I, I i hate decently like none from the AFC.
01:45:04
Speaker
um I think the Packers at 13 to one is decent. And I think the 49ers 17 to one is decent. Yeah, I would agree with that. I'll just kind of go off of um kind of like the futures. Like I'll... i'll Like said, i probably won't actually be betting the Super Bowl winner unless, you know, a Baltimore or a Buffalo gets out It's like an 0-2 start kind of thing. Maybe they get to ten to one That's something I would bite on.
01:45:29
Speaker
ah But to me, this... If you're looking for a shot, um you know I know we've been high on the Falcons, but I still think the Bucs win that division. 27-1 for the Bucs. Maybe they get hot down the stretch. That's a nice number.
01:45:43
Speaker
Worst case, you can kind of play the cash-out game. And then I guess the Broncos too at 27-1. Why not? Why not? Go all in. ah That'll be my individual team that I'm just taking a shot on.
01:45:53
Speaker
The Bo-Nick show. um Believer. Yeah, I'm a bo believer. um Sounds crazy. um One quick bold betting future. i Give me Aaron Rodgers plus twenty seven hundred for most passing touchdowns. Finished seventh last year on the Jets in touchdowns.
01:46:14
Speaker
He did it in twenty twenty one. i don't know. It it was yet better. not Better odds on this than on passing yards, which I actually think is probably the more likely one. um But i i like uh i like a rod to get in the end zone a lot this year i hope it comes i hope it comes true oh another future that i forgot to mention this isn't a bold one uh brock bowers six uh touchdown regular season touchdown catches uh plus 115 yeah i like that a lot i i just i don't really see how that doesn't happen uh
01:46:50
Speaker
I guess I kind of already gave away my bold one with the Broncos winning the division. the value's not there. It's not crazy odds, but I think that's a pretty bold take. um You know what? Yeah, I'll give you another one just for fun. Steelers to win the division.
01:47:05
Speaker
yeah Yeah, that's what I'm talking about. That's the bold I'm talking about. dolphins to win the division um week one picks and predictions opening game do you have any lean like obviously everyone has a lean for the opening game it's the eagles like i think this number could get even higher towards kickoff like it i think it opened at at six and a half it moved to seven and a half now it's at eight and a half it it just keeps rising the only thing i wonder about this game is like
01:47:39
Speaker
If it's low scoring, can the Cowboys keep it within 8.5? If it moves 9.5? Like, i don't know. Feels like it's deflated now that Mika Parsons is gone. The NFL has to be not pleased with that.
01:47:53
Speaker
Yeah, that's, that's, yeah, I don't know. I don't, I, this, this line is too big for me to bet. It kind of like, I agree with you, but it also is a big enough number where it kind of screams Dallas Cowboys backdoor cover.
01:48:05
Speaker
um I'll just take AJ Brown to score touchdown plus one 50 in this game. like I think they try and pour it on early. And yeah, that's something what I'll take. You're right. I tried to get a read on the over under, but I think like,
01:48:19
Speaker
I'm not high on Dallas. I don't think they make the playoffs, but I think their offense is like decent enough where they're going to score. To me, I would lean over if I had to, just because like Dallas going to throwing the ball a lot in the second half.
01:48:32
Speaker
ah But to me, my only like betting is like this wouldn't be added on my card when we're going through the picks, but I'll take ah a AJ Brown touchdown in this one. I'll keep it off your card game of the week.
01:48:43
Speaker
hard not to choose Ravens and Bills. ah That is, you know, a banger um in terms of a playoff rematch, in terms of all the storylines that we've already mentioned in this episode going head to head in week one.
01:48:56
Speaker
um Packers and Lions is quite enticing, too. and I low-key think Falcons and Bucks is interesting, too, in terms of The Falcons were undefeated against the Bucs last year. That's a huge divisional game to start for both um that NFC North division and the NFC South.
01:49:12
Speaker
um Yeah, those are the three games I kind of got an eye on. Agreed. ah like those the I think the first two are big, slight drop, and then a slight drop off for the Bucs. That's just going to huge divisional game to kind of see it see if the falcon if you know we're high on the Falcons. We'll see if they're as high as you know we we think they can be this year.
01:49:33
Speaker
um But you know like the line kind of indicates that it's within a field goal for that Bucs game. Uh, to me, another, like a fun storyline game is the Steelers jets to kind of touch on the double revenge game in New York too. So they're going to be booing the hell out of Aaron Rogers.
01:49:48
Speaker
Um, and then, yeah, like a lot of divisional games, a lot of, you know, close spreads in this one. ah nothing else really jumps out like 49 or Seahawks might be kind of fun as well. Just, I think that's like a staple division game.
01:50:03
Speaker
Uh, but to me, it's, uh, there's just some crucial matchups, uh, for this week. And you know, the, those three definitely take precedent over the others. You know, what's fun to me is that they, the Steelers go play the jets and then play the Seahawks week too.
01:50:18
Speaker
Like, it's like both of those returns, Aaron Rogers, DK Metcalf back to back is, is fun. Um, Without further ado, we will get to our picks battle week one.
01:50:30
Speaker
We've got a resetted schedule. I won last year in the regular season with 31 and record. hot, hot. I was hot last year. Patrick won the playoff picks competition, came down to prop bets in the super bowl. Greasy, but we take, we did, they don't ask how they just ask why. So it's, that's a win on my book.
01:50:53
Speaker
That was very greasy. Um, I think that in terms of regular season, do you do you think I hold the ball here? Absolutely, you do. absolutely I was going to tell you. I didn't mean I was going to tell you to start. I want to have to say it but ah fresh slate here. Lots on the board.
Week 1 NFL Strategies and Picks
01:51:12
Speaker
Week one NFL, maybe the toughest league in Tibet, like in in the first week of the season. You have no read on anything practically.
01:51:23
Speaker
I think the only read I have that is like very clear, the Miami Dolphins are going to beat the Indianapolis Colts. The Dolphins are plus one and a half point underdogs. Give me the Dolphins plus one and a half.
01:51:39
Speaker
Yeah, i kind of I knew you were going to take that one eventually. ah So smart to you know get it off the board first. Maybe I would have stolen that one from you if you left it hanging around for too long. um I very much agree with you on that one, though. like that's I'm not super high on the Dolphins. I'm you know indifferent on them. But to be underdogs to the Colts is shocking. um I get it's in Indy, but still.
01:52:02
Speaker
Where do I go here? I'm going to go... Hmm... Actually, to me, like there's a bunch of games and then I keep like, wrote out about six or seven games and then I keep scrolling as well to just keep in like something different catches my eye just about every single time.
01:52:22
Speaker
But I'm going to start it off with a total. I don't necessarily love this one, but under 47 and a half in Browns Bengals. Yeah, I think the Bengals just kind of control this game.
01:52:34
Speaker
But I do think, you know, in a bit of a slugfest in the AFC North to start off the year. ah To me, this says something like a like a 2110. How does that sound? Sounds good. Yeah, it sounds good of me.
01:52:45
Speaker
um Back to your total merchant ways. ah Yeah, the the spreads are tough in in this week. It's ah tough to get a real read ah on who you want on a spread.
01:52:58
Speaker
i'm gonna go I'm going to go with the 49ers to cover two and a half against the Seahawks. I like that number being below three. It's a divisional game. It'll be a tight game. But, you know, like I've said about the 49ers, they're a team that i I believe will bounce back a lot this year.
01:53:16
Speaker
And I think that starts with a week one win, at least by a field goal. Yeah, I don't mind it. ah I'm going to go with another game that's the exact same format. ah The road team is a two and a half point favorite.
01:53:29
Speaker
Steelers. i do i'm so like I don't think the Steelers are going to be... i think they can get into the playoffs. I just think the Jets stink. that's That's kind of what this pick is. I think the Steelers can... Even if Aaron Rodgers has a C game, I think the Steelers find a way to win this game by a field goal or more.
01:53:47
Speaker
I'm mad that I missed that. I'm mad that I missed that pick because that one, now looking at the board, does absolutely jump out at you. Yeah. you know what? I'm going to do the exact same formula as you, their road favorite here.
01:54:03
Speaker
I'm going to take the Bengals five and a half. I think, i think the Browns stink. Like I, add I think there, that should be a higher spread. Like I think the Bengals win this game by a touchdown.
01:54:14
Speaker
I was, I was on the same mindset. And then I backed my, my AFC North brain talked to me out of that. And that's why, that's how I shifted to the under in that game. But it started off as going to take the Bengals. So yeah i'm I'm in the same boat as you, uh,
01:54:28
Speaker
This one I hate. I hate it so much. And you're going to know why the second I say it. Actually, no. you know what? I'm switching. Switch. We're flipping picks. Going with the Patriots at home minus two and half against the Raiders.
01:54:41
Speaker
ah You know, big question marks. I'm not that high on New England as we went over before. I think they'll be improved from last year, but just at home, I think against the Raiders is a nice spot for them to start off the year.
01:54:54
Speaker
And I think they can win this game by a field goal. um And i wanted I wanted to pick a home team, a home favorite here. yeah So i well that's why I switched to the Patriots. i had I had the Raiders plus two and a half ah written down, but I do think the home field has a bit of an effect on that.
01:55:10
Speaker
I don't hate the Raiders on the money line in this game, to be honest. That's fine. But ah yeah, that's a bit of my Patriots bias seeping in. What was the other pick you were thinking of? Cardinals minus six and a half. Just because I think I'm so low on the Saints, but then it's on the road. I think that would have been two road favorite favorites for me. So I just kind of, ah just, I ran away.
01:55:31
Speaker
I ran away from the Cardinals, man. This will be the year they have a great year because we've just abandoned them. um So yeah, those those are my picks. Week one's always the hardest.
01:55:42
Speaker
yeah You have no idea what team's stepping out on the field. Yeah, you really don't. I also had the ah and the Texans plus two and a half written down. That's now moved to three. I i don't like it at three ah in Stafford's supposedly playing in that game. So I like it even less now.
01:55:58
Speaker
um But that'll do it for our NFL preview. ah Kudos if you stayed with us all the way to the end here. You will now be a lot more knowledgeable heading into week one. have a bit more of a read on certain teams, on certain futures, some picks.
01:56:14
Speaker
And I'm excited for the picks battle this year. This is, ah yeah we're going to get down and dirty again, going head to head. Yeah, I mean... It's been Tommy Sticks with the CFL picks for 13 weeks. Yeah, that was that that's more of a team effort.
01:56:28
Speaker
um that This is ah is a real competition. i don't I'd be very impressed if you backed up last year with a similar record. I'm not saying you won't, but I'm just saying I will be very impressed if you back that record up.
01:56:41
Speaker
My goal is just to get above 500. 500 are better is all I'm asking for myself. um And yeah, that this is the year I'm going to do that. Yeah, yeah. we We love making money for the for our listeners and a similar year. If I can get to 500 or better, I think that that will be an absolute win.
01:56:58
Speaker
um But that'll do it for us today at the Goalpost.
NFL Season Excitement and Life Balance
01:57:02
Speaker
Enjoy week one of the NFL. We still have CFL this weekend. We still have college football this weekend.
01:57:09
Speaker
Perfect weekend to sit on the couch and do nothing but watch football. Yeah, that's basically what we're we're headed for. So maybe enjoy the last couple nice weekends or so, or at least get out for the weekdays. you know if you Use your Fridays well because the Saturdays and Sundays are slowly slipping away, ah but it's it's for the best sometimes. you know So yeah, just enjoy it.
01:57:31
Speaker
Yeah, do something with your partners early in the week. did Do a surprise, something on Wednesday night. Yeah, and but I think Fridays are the night you got a block off. Yeah. I think, you know, for friends, for significant others, for family, whatever, Friday's like your available night going forward. Yeah, especially the the Brazil game, even this Friday. Like that game was a bit of a mess last year between the Eagles and the Packers. So maybe even this week.
01:57:56
Speaker
But until next week, that'll do it for us here at the Goal Post. Enjoy, and I'll see you next week to recap it, Patrick. See you, Damien.