Transcript
Speaker: One of Asia's foremost minds in regional policy, trade, and diplomacy, Dr. Pushpanathan Sundran was his deputy secretary general of ASEAN from 2009 to 2011, overseeing the ASEAN economic community.
Speaker: After decades at the heart of ASEAN, he went on to advise multinationals. and now leads Public Policy Asia advisors guiding Fortune 500 companies and regional governments on policy, market access, and strategy.
Speaker: He has been awarded many medals, awards from different institutions and governments and universities, and a decorated power broker, published author, and a visiting fellow at the Chiang Mai University, Dr. Sun Jun, who has a PhD in public policy.
Speaker: So it is my very distinct honor to welcome you today um to share your wisdom and knowledge from decades of experience working at the heart of ASEAN at this very topical and interesting region.
Speaker: Thank So ah perhaps before we begin, i want to ah first make a small distinction between ASEAN and Southeast Asia. For those who are not aware, when we speak of ASEAN, we're talking about the organization ah born in 1967 after the Bangkok Declaration, and currently which has 10 members.
Speaker: Whereas when we speak of Southeast Asia, we're talking about the geographic region including more countries but um encompassing more than just the association itself so um for perhaps my first question to you as we are making this distinction is what is ASEAN and how does it work how we came to where we are today um and
Speaker: generally as an intergovernmental organization, how does it function from your perspective? ah Thank you for inviting me to this podcast.
Speaker: Now, ASEAN is an intergovernmental organization, as you said, and it composes of the 10 countries in Southeast Asia. um And we are hoping...
Speaker: Timor-Leste will join on in October, so depending on the decision of the ASEAN Summit. Now, the interesting part of ASEAN is when we were established in 1967, it was a period of ah tension actually.
Speaker: I mean, the countries were just independent and they had to look at their own national development as well as look at how they can work with each other in Southeast Asia.
Speaker: Now, the interesting part is when the five countries, the key countries came together, like Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, and Malaysia, um their aim was to look at areas where they can cooperate in because they don't want to go into areas like you know defense and security and political.
Speaker: where there were tensions, actually. And because previously they had three other organizations, they tried to set up three other organizations and failed in all three setups.
Speaker: There was this CITO, Southeast Asia Treaty Organization, which was seen as somewhat um construction of the U.S., Then there was the Mafilindo, Malaysia, philip Philippines, Indonesia kind of set up, didn't work because of the confrontation ah situation.
Speaker: And then this there was this ASEA, A-S-E-A. That too didn't work because of conflicts between some two countries. So in a sense, when ASEAN came about in 1967,
Speaker: There was this feeling that whether this organization will still survive. right And so ASEAN was asean countries, the ASEAN Five countries, were careful to focus on socio-cultural, some economic kind of cooperation, instead of looking at across all the areas of cooperation. So that's how ASEAN came about.
Speaker: And it it allowed the five countries to slowly actually ah come together, discuss some of the key issues of the region. And ASEAN went on an expansion where we saw countries like Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar joining eventually. So by the turn of the century,
Speaker: turn of the century ASEAN was basically 10 countries of Southeast Asia. That's how it started. And they started developing other aspects like, you know, from the economic to the political security and the socio-cultural over the years.
Speaker: And then, of course, in 2008, ASEAN had the ASEAN Charter, which actually is a legal binding instrument. which basically puts in place the core principles of ASEAN, the way the various institutions in ASEAN will work, and so on. So that particular document is, I would say, a milestone.
Speaker: Then supporting that, we had the blueprints I was lucky to work on the ASEAN Economic Community Blueprint. It took me two years actually to get it through. It was adopted in same time as the ASEAN Charter.
Speaker: So we for the first time, we had the ASEAN Economic Community Blueprint, then we had the Political Security Community Blueprint, and then the Social Cultural Community Blueprint. And the blueprint was seven years.
Speaker: And then ASEAN went on to adopt other blueprints eventually, actually. And then, so the first plan was seven years, second plan was 10 years. And now the third plan is about 20 years.
Speaker: So what it shows that ASEAN needs more time, actually, because a lot of measures, and since it's an intergovernmental organization, it will need time. And some of the measures are not implemented in the first blueprint or the second blueprint.
Speaker: So now they call it strategic plans. But interestingly, for the economic community, they have a shorter plan of five years because the situation is so fluid. So the economic ministers, I guess, would have thought about having a five-year plan so that they can kind of manage and coordinate the developments across the world. and how ASEAN will respond to them.
Speaker: So that's how the whole ASEAN process was kind of set up and functioning. I mean, now I can say that ASEAN is here to stay. There's no other organization that can do the work of ASEAN.
Speaker: But of course, there are a lot of challenges it faces. And how it manages internally all its challenges is going to be the... main thing that will determine whether this organization will thrive in the rather uncertain world today.
Speaker: I think just to drill a little deeper on the his historical perspective you shared, how ah Southeast Asia were able to maintain peace and harmony over the past few decades, it's not an incident. It's not a determined outcome of history.
Speaker: Conflict is is the constant, has been the constant since the beginning, since the World War II, since the Cold War.
Speaker: But we were, i think, lucky to have visionary leaders um and the right historical conditions to foster internal peace first and then more external dialogues with with the greater world um so I mean looking back to the journey ASEAN has come um as you said it it it takes time um it takes time to for things to work uh what kind of uh lessons you think it learned over the years from its mistakes um and how has it uh adapted better um instruments or tools to manage internal conflicts or or whether when it comes to engaging with external powers
Speaker: Yeah, so I think I'll go back to the point that ASEAN is an intergovernmental organization. Unlike the EU, um it's about 10 countries driving the organization. So that's one one aspect of it.
Speaker: Now, over the years, I would say ASEAN learned from the way it deals with one another, actually. So there are more than 1,000 over meetings, so sometimes...
Speaker: There's always this question, why ASEAN needs to have more than a thousand meetings a year, actually. But I think the meetings and are not really bad, actually, because the meetings bring about a better understanding of each other's views.
Speaker: you know The Commodore Day is kind of built around this. So there there's a formal meeting part of it that everyone knows. But there is also informal way that ASEAN works. I mean, like golf course or they group together and eat durians, you know.
Speaker: And previously in the older time, they have karaoke sessions. um All this helps in a way in the sense that yeah it brings them together. So some of the key issues that ASEAN had were not solved at the table, actually. It was so so solved at golf courses, ah you know, some of the key ones, actually. So when they're sitting together, huddling together, away from the officials, the ASEAN leaders made some of the key decisions. So The informality of ASEAN, I think, is a very strong point, I want to emphasize here, of the 10 leaders knowing each other well and making those kind of decisions, which is not will not be possible at a meeting where you know there will be tables, documents for the leaders and ministers to follow. so
Speaker: This helps to break that ice, I would say, in terms of their work. But eventually, when the ASEAN Charter came into place, then there were more things, actually. more The organs were more well-established.
Speaker: Like at the leaders' the leader' level is the highest decision-making body, and then we have the coordinating councils. Then each individual ASEAN community its own council, and under the council there are many ministerial meetings.
Speaker: So it's a more structured organization. But I would say that it can be further improved. I think ASEAN is looking at improving um its mechanisms, also really looking at the ASEAN charter and so on. So I think it's time for ASEAN to really look at What are the gaps?
Speaker: I mean, the the charter was implemented since 2008, so it's more than 10 years. Perhaps it's a good time to really review the charter and you know look at where we can improve in terms of making sure that ASEAN can work more efficiently and more effectively as we face an uncertain world.
Speaker: So I would say that over the years they have learned. But one thing must mention here is that ASEAN norms and principles will have to stay because this is the jail actually that brought them together. So if you start dismantling that, then there's going to be problem.
Speaker: So they've been tried and tested for the last 50 years. so The norms of consensus, the norms of consultation, um non-interference will have to stay because this is an intergovernmental organization, not a bloc.
Speaker: So this will really help ASEAN to stay on its course, trust one another. Because Southeast Asia, there was so much of mistrust in the 1960s, but this has now eventually more transformed into more cooperation, I would say.
Speaker: When you mentioned earlier that ASEAN is not like the EU, what did you mean exactly? How is ASEAN different? So, EU is a union, actually. so And the European Union, which is a very strong organiz i mean organization, and they have a European Commission, which has more than 15,000 staff.
Speaker: ASEAN has a about probably less than 1,000 staff, actually. so um So, it's totally a different game, actually. So, the EU... As a union, the European Commission can basically negotiate a trade agreement on behalf of the European member states, right but eu members the EU member states.
Speaker: In the case of ASEAN, the ASEAN Secretary, I would say, is a more an administrative body and a facilitating body in terms of cooperation. But it is not equipped to represent ASEAN in terms of negotiating any agreements.
Speaker: So when it goes to negotiation, it's normally the 10 countries negotiating with another party. It's not the ASEAN Secretary. ASEAN Secretary role is more administrative. So interestingly, when I was in the ASEAN Secretary,
Speaker: there was actually a discussion whether the ASEAN secretariat should evolve and if it evolve, what will it be? and Will it be an administrative secretariat as it is now?
Speaker: Or it will be a more coordinating secretariat? Or it will be an executive secretariat like the European Commission? So the member states... because they hold their sovereignty so tight, they still wanted the Secretary to be an administrative Secretary.
Speaker: That means facilitating cooperation, doing the administrative work for ASEAN. So that's when someone asks, is the Secretary General really a Secretary or is he General?
Speaker: So I would say it's a gray area in between. yeah So his influence is, I think even the Secretary's influence is based on They are institutional knowledge and basically most of the secretariat staffs are competent technocrats. So what they bring out to the table actually. So that's very helpful for member states in terms of making decisions.
Speaker: That leads to my next question is on what actual concrete authority does ASEAN have, then if you're saying it is more and an and administrative body than executive, so it doesn't have authority?
Speaker: the power superseding the governments in the association and it lacks enforcement power um given the just the number of staff um and plus what you mentioned about the the ASEAN way the norms and principles of non-interventionist approach consensus building the informal negotiations during sessions so so then Again, what what concrete authority does it have at the end of the day? Yeah.
Speaker: So basically, I think we have to think outside the box here because the ASEAN secretary role, as I mentioned, is more facilitating and coordinating. But the decisions are made by the ASEAN member states, like the summit, the highest decision-making body, and then the ministerial councils and so on.
Speaker: So this is, an ah I would say, a setup where the secretariat works together with member states and not separately. So i would say and they are together, actually, the secretariat working with the member states.
Speaker: And the member states make the decision because it's an intergovernmental organization like the United ah Nations do. So where and the countries come together, they have various committees, but all the 10 countries are represented with the secretariat, and they make the decision.
Speaker: right So when it comes to enforcement, I think that is one area that ASEAN will have to look at because when it comes to compliance, I think they have actually been able to set up compliance mechanisms to check whether member states are implementing specific measures in the blueprints and all that or strategic plans.
Speaker: But going beyond to look at enforcement, ASEAN is not set up actually to do enforcement. So it all needs to come from the member states themselves that they have implemented how much of the measure.
Speaker: yeah So that is one of the issues ASEAN is facing, but they are managing it, I would say, because I don't think there will be a time where the secretariat will be given the task of enforcing.
Speaker: Because if you look at enforcing, then you wouldn't you need a secretariat of 15,000 people. like I don't think ASEAN will be able to kind of fund that kind of secretariat. And it also affects the you know national sovereignty, how much you would like a third party to come in and, you know,
Speaker: inspect what you are doing at the country level. I don't think ASEAN has gone to that stage yet, but I'm not saying that in future the new generation will take ASEAN to that stage.
Speaker: But as of now, I don't see that happening actually on the enforcement part. But at least the compliance is there. Then I think it's the duty of each of the ASEAN countries to make sure that they implement the measures so that everyone will benefit from the integration.
Speaker: I think one of the most common um critiques of ASEAN is along the similar line is um it's kind of... laid-back approach and when it comes to um compliance issues, when it comes to ah enforcement, um prioritizes harmony over tough questions, if I may put it that way.
Speaker: you know Indonesia's ex-foreign minister, who was quoted also in your book, Dr. Marti Natalie Gawa wrote a book, ah called Does ASEAN Matter? yeah And I think he said that the arbitrary of ASEAN has been written many times.
Speaker: um And ASEAN has lost his finesse in balancing the greater powers of the world. So what are your thoughts on that? Do you think ASEAN's influence is in decline, given the global contact of um kind of the declining influence of these multilateralism of international ah intergovernmental organizations and ah increasing hostility, um great power struggles, and conflicts.
Speaker: Yeah. I would say it is not just because of ASEAN, but I think of what's happening outside ASEAN, I would say, yeah because you look at the situation now, the world is moving in a very uncertain path, actually. I mean, with the US tariffs, the EU itself, and then looking at developments in South-South cooperation, for example, the BRICS part of it.
Speaker: right i mean So that BRICS part is now expanding with the countries like, even ASEAN countries like Indonesia being a member. Malaysia has applied for membership. Thailand is looking at it.
Speaker: Vietnam is a partner. So what does it mean to ASEAN centrality? So that is actually a yeah question, actually, because as of now, ASEAN see...
Speaker: countries like Indonesia joining BRICS as part of the South of South cooperation can help to put ASEAN positions you know in these BRICS meetings and so on.
Speaker: ah Well, I think it's a valid reasoning. But eventually, you need to really look at the centrality of ASEAN. Now, the Indo-Pacific strategy is there.
Speaker: um So how does ASEAN handle that aspect of it, of the Indo-Pacific strategy? And of course, ASEAN is also looking at engaging others. So I would say to me, sometimes I say back to basics. So what ASEAN will need to do is you know strengthen its core, actually.
Speaker: So during the COVID, interestingly, if you look at ASEAN trade, right? Actually, the intra-ASEAN trade became the buffer for ASEAN, actually, because 22% of the trade is done within ASEAN itself.
Speaker: That actually helped ASEAN, actually, during the a COVID situation when the supply chains were fragmented and so on. So perhaps, which I think Prime Minister Lawrence Wong also mentioned that, actually, that ASEAN will need to look at Having a free trade area, actually. I mean, ASEAN has a free trade area, but removing all the remaining tariffs and the non-tariff barriers, actually. That could be something that ASEAN should look at, you know, in the sense that how do you bring the intra-ASEAN trade, which has always been hovering between, say, 20% to 24%. You know, how do you really, you know, increase the figure then? I mean, can ASEAN move to, say, 30% trade?
Speaker: So perhaps if they can remove the trade barriers and all that, they may inch closer to that that figure. But I would say still, the external partners are going to be important, like China.
Speaker: China, I think there are two aspects to it. One is the political aspect, where we have the issue of the South China Sea. Then there is the economic aspect. China is one of the largest trading partners of ASEAN and we' increasingly becoming a big investor.
Speaker: So how do we manage that situation? How do we manage Trump's tariff and the way ASEAN is dealing with it bilaterally? So how do we manage that? How ASEAN as an organization manage that?
Speaker: That would be another area that ASEAN will need to really look at. And then going beyond, ASEAN is looking at the Gulf Cooperation Council and other other groupings in terms of ah greater engagement and possibly a free trade agreements.
Speaker: So how does ASEAN manage that plus existing ah free trade agreements? ASEAN already has a number of free trade agreements. So what I think is, going back to the basic, you deepen those ah free trade agreements, you deepen your intra-ASEAN collaboration, trade integration.
Speaker: You look at other areas within ASEAN, actually, how you can strengthen first. Because by... Being strong internally, then ASEAN can project itself better. yeah That's what I think, actually.
Speaker: um But I find that now with all this uncertainty, ASEAN is going for the outreach. I mean, it's going out to extend itself that we want to partner of this grouping or that country.
Speaker: But I think first look at what you can do internally to strengthen the organization and the integration. Then i think the outreach will come naturally, I guess.
Speaker: So i guess I always kind of feel that you need to go back to the basics. I mean, there are hard differences that we cannot overlook on the front of culture, language, religion, ethnicity.
Speaker: um Let's put it democratic institutions versus more traditional authoritative ah countries. But beyond that, we also have um man-made barriers, like you said, the the trade barriers, nowtra non-tariff barriers, ah restrictions on labor, on intellectual property.
Speaker: um so um So do you think... one day that ASEAN can eventually become a more integrated economic bloc like the EU, given all the barriers at present, given that it's so important and critical to look internally and go back to the basics, as you said. yeah Yeah, I think so. you know ah like the Now they have actually worked on the DEFA, which is this the digital economic framework.
Speaker: I think ASEAN will have to look at really the digital aspect of it. you know How do you bring the regions together? I think this is an opportunity. The DEFA, I hope, will be in place soon and ASEAN will work on other initiatives from that aspect of it. So um I think there's a lot of opportunity for ASEAN to come together, but they need to remove those barriers.
Speaker: Right? It's no longer tariff actually. It's the non-tariff barriers. What I mean, non-tariff barriers? It's a broad word actually, like harmonization of standards. Different countries have different standards actually. How do you harmonize them? Convergence of their regulations, you know?
Speaker: So the countries have like, I mean, I kind of represent so many clients. So a product from one client can go into say one country in ASEAN, say for example, Indonesia,
Speaker: But you cannot go to and into another country, say Malaysia, because the standards are different. right So in a sense, so if i'm I'm a producer of this particular product, I need to have a label for Indonesia.
Speaker: And then I need to print a separate label for Malaysia. That's very costly for a business, business actually. So it loses the competitiveness. So ASEAN will have to look at the standardization of regulation, I mean standardization of standards, regulations too, I mean,
Speaker: 10 countries, 10 different regulations. How do you bring the regulations, ah harmonize those regulations? um And how do you facilitate trade as a whole? right So the biggest barrier, I think, is in the agriculture side.
Speaker: and Because um each country would like to protect its own agricultural sector, which is the biggest employment sector, actually. in countries like say Cambodia, Laos, and so on. So how can countries open up that sector actually? Slowly, I guess, gradually.
Speaker: So it's not gonna be an overnight process. I would say it's a marathon. cannot be a sprint. It's going to be a marathon slowly. I think ASEAN will have to start looking at all the barriers and then trying to close the gaps. So I think this idea of extending the next strategic plan to 2045,
Speaker: 20 years, it's a good strategy actually, but I think every five years they need to have milestone. Otherwise, been after 20 years, 20 for 20, 45 and look at it, or nothing much. just Just keep pushing back the goalpost. Yeah, that's right. They keep pushing back. That is what's happening from the first blueprint to the second blueprint.
Speaker: um there So how do you make sure that ASEAN don't kick the ball further down and start implementing it? So that's why the compliance part is important. The compliance can be done by the ASEAN Secretary. They have actually an Economic ah Integration Monitoring Directorate, so they can actually do the work, give them more empowerment actually to go down to the country,
Speaker: It can be a voluntary basis first, but eventually have a more structured way in terms where they this organization directory can do the compliance check to see whether actually we have implemented on the ground and make recommendations.
Speaker: right On the enforcement part, I think still a long way. I don't think ASEAN is ready for a supranational organization to ah do enforcement. So it is going to be, i guess, you know and the idea of collaborating with the Secretary and trying to implement whatever gaps they have.
Speaker: yeah So just on the example you raised about standard harmonization and about the different labeling issues, what's driving that?
Speaker: Why such a seemingly simple problem? Why is it not addressed after so long? Is it because of a lack of political will or is it because ah they're intended to protect domestic industries?
Speaker: So why hasn't things like that been fixed, that the non-tariff barriers? Yeah, as you said, I mean, one will be the protection of the infant industries, right? I mean, so um so in in in a sense, actually, I mean, of course, there is also reason for some countries, actually, I mean, to because of certain standards, like, for example, when it comes to vitamin D, Thailand has a different view about
Speaker: the amount of vitamin D in a product, the percentage of vitamin D in a product compared to the other countries. So because of the needs of the people, actually. yeah So in a sense, so the producer will have to change, actually. So he cannot use too much of...
Speaker: Vitamin D in Thailand, which can be used in other ah countries for the same product. right So it could be a trade barrier too, in the sense that they want to predict protect their own industry, local industry. so And also to create employment, actually.
Speaker: Like, for example, testing. right A product, same product, then go into 10 different countries of ASEAN. will require testing in each of the countries. that Testing is all done in the US or Europe.
Speaker: The more, I mean, the are US and Europe are the reference countries. But when it goes to say a country in ASEAN, they have to go through the same field trials and the testing of the product.
Speaker: So that creates of course jobs for the local labs and all that. But it delays a product of innovative product to come into the market.
Speaker: So there's some studies we show that certain products come into the market in Europe in one, two years, but to in Southeast Asia it takes seven years.
Speaker: so the six years of loss, actually, in terms of you using this innovative product in the agriculture sector. So I think this is something that ASEAN will have to factor into that actually, you know, that means that product is not providing that kind of advanced technology for your farmers, for example.
Speaker: and how do you use kind of how How do you get a market for that kind of products so that the farmers can benefit much earlier? And that can improve their productivity and also the profits the farmers make, actually.
Speaker: I'm just giving an example. so yeah It sounds like very frustrating from an insider's perspective, looking at all the barriers that exist, that, you know, being talked about at the table for so many times, but but still no solution.
Speaker: yeah So I guess on that point, I want to ask about, maybe come back to the mechanism of ASEAN and how decisions are made. Mm-hmm. What are the formal and informal channels of communication between the leaders, the the prime ministers, the foreign ministers?
Speaker: um Are there, let's say, like group chats or email groups that if, let's say, Lawrence Wong wants to call Anwar one day, he can just pick up the phone?
Speaker: Mm-hmm. ah I would say, I mean, basically, I mean, since these are governments, right, I don't think they will go into like, you know, WhatsApp chats and all that, but they have hotlines, actually. So if there's an issue, so all the ASEAN countries have set up hotline. So the prime minister of one country can just pick up the phone and talk to someone, actually.
Speaker: So we have those kind of hotlines across ASEAN countries. right And then um each of the ASEAN countries, there is a permanent representative. So say Singapore has a permanent representative of ASEAN in Indonesia.
Speaker: alright So if it comes to ASEAN method, this permanent representative will be the one that the governments of the countries use to bring up issues. right So the permanent representatives can discuss about it and find a way to talk. But I think leaders sometimes they call each other actually when the officials cannot make that kind of decision. So,
Speaker: So those hotlines are there, it helps. And the various ASEAN personnel, I mentioned the permanent representatives are there to help on ASEAN issues.
Speaker: So this permanent representative is separate from the ambassador. So Singapore can have an ambassador in Indonesia, but they have another the ambassador level, a permanent representative who only focus on ASEAN issues.
Speaker: And that person has an office. in Jakarta and attends most of the meetings with the ASEAN secretariat. So that helps, actually. That helps. So what is this hotline? A phone line.
Speaker: You can directly call the the other prime minister's office? Yes. Yes. Yeah. So you can call. I mean, I think they will have to make an appointment, I guess, and then they can call directly.
Speaker: And yeah, I mean, it's helpful when issues like, you know, i mean, a Myanmar issue came up recently. And so that really helps, actually. so And during the COVID time also, I think they kind of, that hotlines actually help in communication and all that.
Speaker: So ASEAN is doing its best, I would say, you know, trying to, within its limitations, trying its best to focus on cooperation. But a lot of distractions across the region. As I mentioned, BRICS, Indo-Pacific, the U.S. and tariffs and so on.
Speaker: yeah How ASEAN responds to this will be the issue, actually. i think yeah we I think we touched on this little bit earlier, but what is ASEAN's position on member states like Indonesia and Malaysia flirting with BRICS?
Speaker: And you see the divergence of um perhaps the Philippines on one side with closer U.S. tie and Malaysia on the other, Thailand closer to China.
Speaker: What is ASEAN's position? and And in the ideal world, You know, everybody would come together, but in today's reality, it's not possible. So I can tell you, I mean, the official position of ASEAN is BRICS membership is part of South-South Corporation.
Speaker: It will help ASEAN to project its ah messages and position in BRICS, for example. That's the official position. But if you ask me, frankly,
Speaker: I think ah as long as BRICS is not structured, so BRICS is a meeting of at the very high level of the leaders and all that. I don't think there's a challenge to ASEAN. But if the BRICS become structured, they have their own secretary, they have their own organizational setup and all that, then actually, i mean, it may become a challenge for ASEAN. So how ASEAN respond to that Like, for example, getting membership in BRICS, for example, ah as an as an organization could be something they can look at. But the challenge is not there yet, but it can become a challenge.
Speaker: So BRICS is something that ASEAN will have to watch carefully. Yeah. So behind the closed doors, do ASEAN leaders debate about a unified position between U.S. and China?
Speaker: Or is it more of a taboo that people just don't even bring up at the meetings? I think they on the broad strokes, yes, you know how they deal with China and all that. On the broad strokes, yes. But on the negotiations, I mean, let's say on the tariffs, right, each of the ASEAN countries went on their own because...
Speaker: their relationship with the US, right? Individual countries, they're very different, right? So they cannot negotiate as a grouping because of the trade structure.
Speaker: So they have to go individually and negotiate with the US s because Also, certain countries are much more favored by the U.S. So, they of course, they don't want to go together as a group because then it may affect their negotiation position.
Speaker: I can understand that. It's a practical way of looking at it. um But what is important is now, since the tariffs actually a bit more clearer with the U.S., here's where ASEAN will really have to sit together and see what is the regional strategy in terms of managing the US-ASEAN relations.
Speaker: I think US is still interested in ASEAN and working with ASEAN and all that. So we need to see how we can really tap that kind of cooperation that we have with the US. I mean, if you look at on the geopolitical side, I think we still need the US presence in the region actually.
Speaker: So it's important to aspect of it. especially we have the South China Sea issue. Still today, there is no code of conduct yet. We are still negotiating a code of conduct.
Speaker: We just have a declaration on the code of conduct, which is just a... I would say, a document that can provide some guidance in terms of, let's say, if there's a conflict there, what is the stages, what are the processes.
Speaker: I think we will really need a legally binding code of conduct to secure that that part of Southeast Asia. So I think ASEAN will have to look at various aspects of it and how, as an organization, it can work with those issues.
Speaker: At the same time, continue the bilateral relations. it's it's It's a million dollar question that is how do you actually execute when it comes to the day you we have to make a decision choosing between US and China.
Speaker: The great power struggle going to stay for us for the next next decades or centuries. So you cannot keep playing this naive balancing game from my perspective um until it breaks. so So it's either you let that each country to completely decide on their own or you have something prepared early before bigger events happen that could split the member states among themselves.
Speaker: Yeah. So in the case of this, ASEAN, their policies, would say, like Indonesia coined policy of equidistance. That means we keep everyone as friends and no one is our enemy.
Speaker: OK. Because if you look at it, I mean, we need the US because US is the biggest investor in Southeast Asia. Still, the US companies are the most biggest investor. um Then we need China because China is the biggest trading partner of ASEAN, actually.
Speaker: So at the same time, on the political side, of course, there is i say you know like South China Sea. And then with the US, of course, it's the economic issue that we have.
Speaker: So how do we, as a region, you know, that we... So ASEAN is still on that balancing act. How do we balance? No one wants to take that kind of position, actually. I mean, I'm going with the US, I'm going with the China, right?
Speaker: Yeah. But I would say like China has good influence in some of the countries because of their investment and so on. But some of the companies ah countries are keeping a distance with China.
Speaker: So it all depends on the individual issues actually, national issues with China and the US. Yeah, but we need both the players in the region actually.
Speaker: So... yeah as of now I mean think it's a bit difficult to come to a position where you know I will go with China I will go with the US but we have to go with ASEAN I think ASEAN will have to really manage this more Closely, I think. That's why I kind of feel that the organization really needs to integrate better.
Speaker: Get itself together. Together first, you know, so that you can actually look at all these issues in a more coive cohesive way, actually. Yeah.
Speaker: So that's where i think the essence is going to be. Yeah. That's what I kind of came to after I wrote my book to on the transformative ASEAN.
Speaker: I recognize that that is actually the one of the biggest gaps. How do you bring this organization together? Is it still loosely formed organization or is it a tightly formed organization? Because ASEAN has always been seen as a loosely formed organization.
Speaker: So are we still there? Are we moving to a more tighter organization? organization and if it's tighter organization what is it about so how do we work together in a more effective way yeah So as we're moving into some of the more like uncomfortable questions of ASEAN, more existent existential questions, what do you think will happen to ASEAN in this scenario of a war happening in South China Sea, whether it's China invading Taiwan or something happened in the common international waters between China and the Philippines?
Speaker: Would ASEAN become a more unified um regional power that really becomes the event that brings countries together? Or do you think it will become a flashpoint among the member states?
Speaker: So I think ASEAN being an international you know player in in a sense, you know ASEAN is actually, I mean, ASEAN countries are in the UN and the various organizations. I think every if you look at ASEAN way of operating, it will be first the diplomatic position actually.
Speaker: So... ah um ah During the Cambodia crisis in the 1970s, even Myanmar, the UN was an important organization actually that ASEAN worked with actually.
Speaker: yeah So I think ASEAN will take a position on it. I think it will come together. Any of the ASEAN countries is attacked, I think it will come together. But it will use the diplomatic process first.
Speaker: ah and try and work it out at the UN level, and the ASEAN level, in terms of how best to respond to the situation, actually. chill yeah So I think that's what they will do, actually.
Speaker: Because ASEAN believes in multilateralism, you know, and working things through the diplomatic channel, actually. So that will be their first response. But whether they will come together for a Military stand down, military action, i don't think so, actually.
Speaker: Yeah. So we will, that's why I think the relations with the various countries is so important. How do we work with them? So that, one, we avoid, I mean, the prevention part is better than the actual situations. That's why I think the code of conduct is so important for the region.
Speaker: So it lays out the stages and what to be done if there is a conflict. you know So I hope ASEAN can get this done for the next one, two years, actually, with China's support. no yeah So I think always I see ASEAN as a more diplomatic institution trying to work out issues, not as a defense pact.
Speaker: Even if you look at ASEAN, right, I mean, the defense cooperation started the last year. yeah They now have the ASEAN Defence Minister's meeting. But even then, defence ministers are Yeah, they exchange ideas on all the issues and all that ah so in the region. But the main thing is how to use their resources for non-military aspects like you know natural disasters and so on. So how do they use, say, the helicopters or food distribution and things like that in Myanmar and all that. So that's how ASEAN look at the defense cooperation, actually.
Speaker: So it's a good forum for them to sit and discuss international or geopolitical issues. But the action on the ASEAN side is more looking at non-military kind of cooperation on the military side.
Speaker: So that's how they work, actually.
Speaker: Do you think there is a sufficient sense of urgency among the ASEAN leaders today? you know when um When PAP was re-elected recently, Lawrence Wong and all the senior Singaporean statesmen come out and emphasize this point that the world is changing.
Speaker: yeah The ground is shifting. Is it being echoed across ASEAN states when you look around the region, or is it just Singapore ah yaoing or yelling into the abyss on its own?
Speaker: No, I think all the countries, i they share the similar sentiments, but the reaction to it is so different, right? Singapore's reaction of it is going to be different from, say, Indonesia, actually.
Speaker: So Indonesia, first thing is when, like we go back to Trump tariff, first thing they wanted to do is actually negotiate to see how they can, you know, work with the US. s Of course, they didn't want any tariffs, actually, but Now they have 19%. What I understand from my contacts Indonesia, they're trying to bring it even down, actually.
Speaker: you know They don't think they were settled for 19%. So I would say they all share the same sentiment, but the response from the different countries is different, actually.
Speaker: Like ive Laos, for example, i don't see much action from them, actually, because I think the economy is more dependent on um China, I guess, i mean so and Thailand and so on. So it all depends.
Speaker: so there's not a, I would say, coordinated ASEAN response. to that The only coordinator respond is we should not retaliate on the tariff of the US. We will try and work it out because the US has been a good partner of ASEAN and we try and work it out. That is the kind of agreement they have.
Speaker: But the response is actually all dependent on the individual economies. Yeah. See, everybody's aware that the world is changing. You know, the all the multilateral globalist norms are weakening, but it's just what can we do about ASEAN, when it comes to ah international issues, I may be wrong, but it doesn't have a unified position on Israel-Gaza. It doesn't have a unified position on Ukraine-Russia.
Speaker: It doesn't have a unified position on the tariffs. um Or even internal issues recently, like we saw in the a Thailand-Cambodia border clash. Was there much ASEAN intervention behind us Yes, on the Thailand-Cambodia border clash, actually the chair of ASEAN actually intervened and he called the two heads of government ah to KL and they announced a ceasefire actually.
Speaker: So that's actually a good example of how the chair of ASEAN can help in diffusing tension. That's that's on at the same time i think i've mentioned in my book also on the myanmar situation it has been dragging on for so long and there is no clear path forward i mean asiana's uh envoy i mean they've set up a rotating envoy depending on the chair who's the chair for the year there'll be envoy to myanmar to help try and resolve the issue
Speaker: the political situation there. That did did not work well, actually. So there are a lot of suggestions, actually, now that you should have a permanent envoy, actually, instead of rotating. So Athean will need to really tweak some of these things to see action. But I will i agree that in many of the issues,
Speaker: um there may not be an ASEAN position, many of the issues. But they discuss, actually. But they discuss, you know, like ah if some of the issues they can agree, I think they will issue statements.
Speaker: But in some of the issues they can't agree, I think it's going to be like... yeah ASEAN is normally silent on that. yeah So that's the situation. But just on that um this ASEAN's contribution,
Speaker: to the to the peace treaty, but to the peace resolution between Thailand and Cambodia. Was it really ASEAN's working behind the scene, or is it because Anwar's personal charisma or his personal influence?
Speaker: And what would happen in a scenario if, let's say, Thailand or Cambodia were the chair of ASEAN during the year? then then ASEAN would be put into a position of ah conflict of interest.
Speaker: yeah Yeah, so, I mean, the case of ah Malaysia, I would say it's not just the chair of Malaysia, of course. As you know, before that, when Trump has said that, okay, you know, if youre good to two guys don't settle the problem, I'm not going to do the re-negotiation of the tariffs.
Speaker: yeah So, of course, that would be ah for Thailand, that was... the something they will have to consider, right? So there are a lot of many, many things going on there. But the fact that the chair of ASEAN was willing to step in and resolve the issue was a good thing actually to me is, yeah...
Speaker: something that really helped to push push the ceasefire through. right I mean, all these things help, but ASEAN stepping in, ASEAN chair stepping in really helped in the process. But you are right. I mean, it also depends on the on the chair itself. you know like For example, when Cambodia was chairing ASEAN,
Speaker: um There was one year ASEAN did not issue a statement, actually. Normally at ASEAN meetings, summits, statements would be issued. But when it came to about the South China Sea, Cambodia did not issue the statement. So so in a sense, it became a talked about point, actually.
Speaker: So I think that is also something that has happened before. so Was it because of a weak leadership during the year? I think it was just to avoid the tension actually of putting out some statement and, you know, causing some, you know, unhappiness on both sides, I guess.
Speaker: So... So the ASEAN chair has a lot of sway and influence. Yeah, because the chair of the... It's the ASEAN chair statement. So they have the right to whether issue it or not. I mean, normal tradition is ASEAN issues the statement, right?
Speaker: Yeah. Um... So that really, that also happened. actually so And does he need to consult the member states or it's entirely up to his discretion? It's actually they they consult the member states before the issue. yeah yeah And i was not I'm not sure what exactly was written there, but it was not issued.
Speaker: So it happens actually. What year was it? of A few years back, because now it's Malaysia, so probably a few cycles back was Cambodia was the chair.
Speaker: The intention could be right, because the their aim was not to...
Speaker: Basically, caused a sensitive situation. i mean yeah But it is not a tradition in ASEAN not to issue a statement after leaders meeting or ministerial meeting.
Speaker: so So it was a reflection of internal fractions and... debates, conflicts, more likely. Yeah, sometimes, yeah. there was yeah More likely than strategic silence on the issue. Yeah, yeah.
Speaker: so They couldn't come to agree on what yeah to put the state. Yeah, probably that, I guess. That happened before. What I wanted to say is that happened. So who chairs ASEAN is also important, right?
Speaker: yeah So the next chair will be, after Malaysia will be the Philippines. I'm not sure whether Myanmar, yeah, Myanmar and then Philippines, but the situation, maybe it will be the Philippines. so yeah So you can hear more about the South China Sea, guess, from there, because that's one of the main things that Philippines is kind of interested in.
Speaker: But let's say if Thailand was the chair this year, then what would happen? Does ASEAN have the capacity to intervene promote these talks? Yes, I think the foreign ministers would probably have huddled together and would have advised both sides to announce ceasefire, i think.
Speaker: So, they see, I mean, the good thing about ASEAN is all these huddles really help. But ASEAN is not like... An organization is out there to promote, you know, what it's doing, actually. I mean, like, they will not be writing, you know, and doing something to just, you know, some of these things, they keep it silent.
Speaker: They do it internally and then let it work, but it doesn't come out. So they don't communicate those things out. Like in the media and all that. So it's not captured by anyone.
Speaker: um But that helps actually sometimes. To do it in silence, informally, and then you know getting a decision. So even if the chair is not in a position to contribute, there are other mechanisms and instruments to...
Speaker: solve internal conflicts. Yeah, so they will actually basically sit together and discuss with the chair, actually. Yeah. You know? Then how to solve this issue or making some, you know, strategies on how to move forward.
Speaker: Yeah. I think they have enough experience to handle internal conflicts and all that. Right? And each of them know... um But the chair would be biased on on certain issues when it's... when it has a stake, right?
Speaker: Oh, yes, yes, yes. So, yeah. But the chair cannot issue a statement on... It must be their own statement actually. Maybe if they are from one country, then they issue a statement from their country.
Speaker: It cannot be an ASEAN statement when there's no consensus. So say this consensus principle is important. I mean, okay, even though this is a chair statement, it must be agreed by all before you as a chair of ASEAN release it.
Speaker: So in that way, the consensus principle helps to make sure that whatever comes out of ASEAN is something that all the 10 countries agree. Yeah. Do you think this rotation of chairmanship is the most effective?
Speaker: Because I don't think that happens for for the EU, for example, ah because they have a permanent setup. But I think BRIC follows that, right? Every yeah every year, so of rotating chairmanship. So it has started since ASEAN was established, so I think they still continue then.
Speaker: you know But there's so many things happening in a year. you know For one country, just chair one year yeah and then leave. you know and it's it's It's a marathon, so it's not...
Speaker: Maybe there's not enough time actually, yeah but there are 10 countries, right? So if you say it you know you give them two years or three years, then ah country will have to wait so long to be a chair.
Speaker: So that's also the disadvantage. So the kids still keep kid the one year because then every country will have a chance to chair. Do you think that poses a risk on continuity in decision making?
Speaker: That actually poses an issue on the agenda because different country, right? The agenda will be different. Okay, I want to focus on, like for example, Philippines coming in.
Speaker: They want to focus on the code of conduct probably. And Philippines is very much focused on the social cultural community of ASEAN. They want to focus on that. So what happens to say Malaysia's focus on the other aspect of it? So here's where I think the other organizations like the ASEAN Secretariat or the various ASEAN bodies, you know the councils, the ministerial meeting, we will need to provide that institutional memory to push things actually forward.
Speaker: So yeah, that happens. But it i think there's a balance off with the Secretariat and the ASEAN organs actually that are working on many of these areas.
Speaker: um Just maybe on the military alliance, on the defense minister meetings, like you said, it its focus has been more on the disaster relief and other fronts.
Speaker: When it comes to Let's say an actual war breaking out in Asia. Would ASEAN countries come together and form an alliance like the NATO in the regional level?
Speaker: And howard the how are the military capabilities of each member states? Or is it still a lot of them depends on the U.S. support? I think ah it's quite clear actually, you know because when ASEAN was established, right, military was the least part of the cooperation aspect they wanted to focus on.
Speaker: It's only the last few years that that last 10 years or so that this ADMM or the ASEAN Defence Minister's meeting really come up. you know So I don't think they will go in that direction. Probably they will just use the UN and other officers actually to bring about some kind of unified position within ASEAN as well as globally, I guess.
Speaker: right and it's It's already been seen during the Cambodian crisis. This was what ASEAN did actually in the UN. Even for Myanmar, i think ASEAN issued the statement. I was there actually.
Speaker: We issued a statement on Myanmar when the first time when the the monks were protesting and you know there was one Japanese news reporter was shot ASEAN issued a statement from UN from when they were meeting at the UN General Assembly so in a sense that's how the region will handle of the issue not going to any kind of military alliance which I don't think anyone is thinking of also yeah
Speaker: ah Did ASEAN have a playbook during the Cold War? Because I think that was the most recent history period where you had to balance between the two great powers on the verge of conflict.
Speaker: And can it do something similar today between U.S. and China? I think with their 50 years experience, I think they have enough knowledge on how to handle the superpowers, actually. I mean, so say US and China, you know. so But it's all going to be based on the diplomatic positioning rather than anything else.
Speaker: I don't think they will be ah know like going as an ally doing something like that, but it is going to be using a diplomatic channels. Non-confrontational. Non-confrontational aspect of it because both are important for the region, so they don't want to be an enemy of any one of them.
Speaker: So that's how they will handle it, I guess. Yeah. Sure. Okay. um As we're probably coming to the last bits of the podcast, I'll ask you one last question on the ASEAN front.
Speaker: Given your vast number of experience, years of experience sitting in the meetings, do you have a most memorable meeting you've witnessed, whether it's at the ASEAN or other forums?
Speaker: You know, perhaps some example cases of
Speaker: decision making that were unusual or a very tense or chaotic discussion anything came to mind Yeah, um mean as I mentioned, the UN meeting, where you know when the Saffron revolution broke up, right so ASEAN realized that, hey, no I cannot be just sitting there and not doing anything. So I remember so the foreign ministers huddled together.
Speaker: And so I was from the ASEAN secretary, so they wanted someone to take notes, actually. And it was so, so sudden, right? When I went in, so I just had to write in ah my notebook. And then um one of the ministers actually wrote in a piece of tissue paper, you know, the main the tissue Soviet, you know, that these are the main points, actually. So then I had to craft it out and get it ready for the ministers to approve.
Speaker: Mm-hmm. So it was all done within one, two hours actually. i mean yeah Because ASEAN realized the importance of having a position on Myanmar then.
Speaker: Even though Myanmar was a member of ASEAN, they needed a position because… So there's a good thing about ASEAN actually. They are very concerned about their credibility. You know, the image outside.
Speaker: So if one member is going to damage their image, then they will have to take some like some kind of action. So that's when I saw them reacting to that situation.
Speaker: So I've been in also trade negotiations, political insecurity and all that. So there's always tension, actually. no So when we have the East Asia Summit discussion, right so there was an issue about you know whether we should bring Russia and Australia into the East Asia Summit.
Speaker: So a lot of discussion. And I remember I was asked to write a paper actually on Russia and why we should bring Russia into the East Asia Summit. And that became a discussion point. And eventually we admitted Russia because Russia was an important part of this of so of Asia, actually, I would say.
Speaker: Australia is also a very crucial player in Southeast Asia. So we saw a need to bring both together. So this kind of tension, there was a lot of tension.
Speaker: Oh, we don't need to bring certain member in. Others will say, no, we need to bring. Then there'll be negotiation like, you know, if you want to bring this country, then I want this country. So how do you manage that? So I was kind of involved in those kind of management actually. Yeah.
Speaker: yeah So, and the reason out things, the reason out, and then eventually, yeah, the secretary role will be to provide that kind of information details, actually, and then for them to make the decision.
Speaker: So I've seen that aspect also. Do smaller states have an equal say? Equal say. Equal because That's a good thing about if you compare organization like Sark where India plays a very dominant role, South Asia Regional Corporation and ASEAN, Indonesia is a very balanced member in the sense that it allows, you know, Indonesia being the, you know, half the size of...
Speaker: Southeast Asia can always say that, no, I want you to do this way. But Indonesia is not like that. It basically allows all voices to come.
Speaker: So even a country like Singapore can voice up equally. And ASEAN countries are all treated equal. So whether it's a big country or a small country, a big economy or small economy, you're fine.
Speaker: You have equal say. But the decision is not by voting, but consensus. yeah Sometimes you cannot get consensus immediately. So what happens is they go into consultation.
Speaker: I mean, we cannot get consensus, consultation. This consultation can be as 10 countries or one or two countries speaking to a country that doesn't agree, trying to find a way. so So whatever decision is made in ASEAN is by consensus.
Speaker: So that's an important aspect, I guess. Okay. um Before we close, um perhaps could you share a little bit about what you do at Public Policy Asia and how can people reach out to you if they want to?
Speaker: Right. So Public Policy Asia Advisors was set up in 2019. It's a business advisory helping multinational companies, startups, ah small and medium enterprises to assess the markets in Asia.
Speaker: So they may have policy issues, political issues, they may have regulatory issues, market assess issues. We help them with those issues. We have consultants across Asia, Asia Pacific, so our consultants can help you get into those markets. I mean, working with the government or the stakeholders and so on. So there's a consultancy aspect.
Speaker: We also have a publishly publishing house because we are also a thought leader. And so PPA publishing is there. So I'm looking at for young budding writers and on the fiction and non-fiction side of it.
Speaker: If you have a manuscript that do you want to share with me for publishing, ah Yeah, you can always so find me on LinkedIn and send to us and then we can look at whether it's of commercial interest.
Speaker: So we have different schemes. You can look at our website. We have the traditional scheme and then we have the hybrid and other schemes where you can but publish with our label. Then we're also are starting an academy soon, the next few months, which will roll out executive training on ASEAN, on the free trade and agreements in southea in Southeast Asia or Asia.
Speaker: We will also have other training like food and nutrition, looking at public policy, public advocacy, crisis management, and so on. This will be tailored to companies and associations, organization needs,
Speaker: So you can always work with us. We can provide our standard training or we can customize training for you. so So it's an integrated business. So consultancy, publishing house and academic.
Speaker: Find me on Facebook, Instagram and LinkedIn. um I'm there. For all the aspiring writers, please reach out to Dr. Nathen. And um as we conclude today's podcast, I want to thank you for coming on the show and for interesting, very enlightening discussion, and which I've learned a lot.
Speaker: So thank you again, and I hope um to bring you back on in the future. Thank you so much for the invitation.
