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Insilico Terminal Podcast Episode 29 - Worst Contrarian
24 Plays1 hour ago
Worst Contrarian joins the Insilico Terminal Podcast to talk about his path into full-time trading, why he approaches markets like a business, and where he thinks real edge actually comes from. The episode covers arbitrage, exploiter mindset, inefficiencies in crypto and TradFi, trading psychology, expected value, and why most people are better off not trying to become traders in the first place.
00:00 Intro, WC’s background, why he views trading as a business not speculation
04:07 First major arbitrage breakthrough, Binance AUD tether trade and going full-time
08:30 Why most people approach markets wrong, repeatable arbitrage vs lucky directional bets
19:40 The “exploiter mindset”, how to think about protocols, oracles and metagame risk
30:05 Building a trader network, why one phone call can unlock the next unusual trade
40:54 Sports betting exploits, getting banned everywhere and finding edge in inefficiency
53:33 Crypto vs TradFi today, where opportunity still exists and why chaos creates edge
01:06:22 Final advice, relationships, martial arts, Education of a Speculator and closing
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Transcript
Introduction of Guest: Worst Contrarian
00:00:13
Speaker
Welcome to a new episode of the InSilico Terminal podcast. Today my guest is Worst Contrarian. sometimes requested many times uh denied i yes were we're just glad you we're just glad that you're that you're here you denied me kind of so let's say yeah wow we're just we're just glad we got it going this time i couldn't i couldn't keep on letting you down so i'm thrilled to be on mate we We appreciate it. i've I've had many people asking for you, so we we appreciate it that you're here now.
Worst Contrarian's Trading Identity
00:00:42
Speaker
But what i like what I like to do at the beginning, for people that don't know you, like my my question, my first question is always, how would you introduce yourself to someone that doesn't know you? Like, who are you? What do you do?
00:00:52
Speaker
Wow, that's such a tough question to answer because, like, there's um what I think about myself and then there's a reality. So I'm not sure how to answer that. I think, yeah, I think... um yeah i think um You know, probably as a trader, um i have been trading for my myself full time since
Journey into Trading and Arbitrage
00:01:18
Speaker
2020. Oh, 2022, sorry.
00:01:19
Speaker
um um You know, ah i'm known for unusual trades or arbitrages. For those of me that have followed me for a while, like I had like a foray into like the Nigerian Nira and stuff like that.
00:01:37
Speaker
um i I love trading. i love thinking about it. um I do it for free. I've been quite fortunate, like from, you know what I mean? I've been quite fortunate in picking my profession. So, but um I do, um yeah, I love, so that's pretty much how I spend my time.
00:01:59
Speaker
um Apart from when not like shit posting on Twitter or you know, harassing ah Australian politicians on there or whatever. Yeah. That's like that's ah definitely very entertaining to always see without getting into too much politics. No, no. I know. I like that.
00:02:18
Speaker
So what what made you first get into trading? What attracted you to yeah I was i was like ah not super well off growing up. So, um you know, i suppose the allure of like making something from nothing, which is like kind of like,
00:02:33
Speaker
I suppose part of the allure of trading dragged me in. And like, I think this was like, this was like kind of just before the Wolf of Wall Street came out. And like, um I remember wanting to learn about finance and I would watch, um this is like, this is like 2000 and probably 15 when I first started to learn about it.
00:02:53
Speaker
And um I'd be watching these documentaries and they'd be like, you know, like they're, you know, they're like the excessive traders, like at big banks that make like, over a million dollars a year and all this shit. And I'm like, you know, this poor kid, I'm like, wow, you know, whoa, whoa, what would I do with that? You know? and then, um, and then, um, i I tried to trade in 2016 was really unsuccessful.
Success in Crypto Trading
00:03:24
Speaker
Um, I suppose like you'd say now that I blew up the account, um, and then,
00:03:31
Speaker
I tried again in 2017 and that went into like 2018 and then I got a job, like a real job um in finance, but I was like, I sort of put that to the side and then i had some success um in like a real business, like an e-commerce business. And then with that um capital around 2021, there was like loads of trades in crypto that were like so easy. and really yeah easy to take advantage of. Like um you could do cash and carries and make like 500%. So if you had like, you know, a hundred grand, like, you know, you could do really well um because the demand for leverage was so high. And like, um so then i got involved then um towards the end of 2021.
00:04:24
Speaker
um i was doing cash and carry trades. And then one day, um someone posted on Twitter that there was an arbitrage on the Aussie tether pair on Binance. And I did it. and I remember I made like five grand and I like called my like now wife, Mrs. at the time.
00:04:44
Speaker
And I'm like, you know, get yourself a bottle of champagne on the way home. Like, you know what I mean? Like I only had like a hundred or 200 grand or whatever. And I was like, you know, wow. And then that sort of got me looking at like arbitrages. Cause I'm like, well, you know, I always sort of saw trading and I still do as more of like a business. I don't see it. Like, I don't look at it. Like I don't, I do speculate from time to time, but that's not how I like produce the bulk of my income. Right. Like when it comes to trading, like I look at it through the lens of a business. And, um, and so I'm like, well, you know, if there was this huge arbitrage, like surely there's others around, like this can't be the only one. And then that led me to on chain where I had a bit of success. And then, um, Yeah, that was, and then I remember like I had a day job and, um, it was work from home cause COVID was just winding down. Um, and they were like, um, you have to come back in the office and, um, I would sit in, I was doing this on chain, but I would sit like in front of six screens cause it was like one screen would be like to purchase on chat. This was all by hand. Like one screen was to purchase by hand and other was to hedge it. Um, at FTX at the time. And then another was like news. And then like another was the bridge. Cause I had to bridge it and all this shit.
00:06:01
Speaker
And like, you know, i didn't like, you probably could have done it with two screens, but like when it got busy, you wouldn't want to be like, you know, you know, control tab or whatever, um, or alt tab. And, um, yeah. And I remember like my boss was like, yeah, you have to come in, um to work again. And that morning I made like five grand and I was like, this is, this is like, This is a joke, you know what I mean? Um, yeah the other thing that was kind of like important was, um, my e-commerce business was doing like relatively well. And i was kind of thinking like between that and trading, like there's no way, like I was making way more than I could at a day job, like even to this day, like there's no way I could get a day job that would like financially compensate me. Um, you know what I mean? So it was, it was, um, pretty scary. Cause like, you know, to leave like the wage cage is always like pretty intimidating. especially when you have that like slow drip of income. And then, um yeah, that was a few years ago. And then, yeah, since then, I've just been, you know, just, um yeah, trading full-time since then pretty much.
00:07:04
Speaker
Have you always like traded crypto or also ah like back when you first started, ventured into other markets? when When I started, it was like penny stocks, like Tim Sykes style. If you're like, for like my younger, not my younger, my older listeners will probably be like, ha ha, wow, like this guy's old as fuck.
00:07:21
Speaker
um And I
Trading as a Business
00:07:24
Speaker
did that originally it was TradFi. um and then the next year was TradFi as well, just doing like pairs trading.
00:07:32
Speaker
And then, um you know, it was crypto for a long time. And then i had ah my son and, um you know, that was around the time that I lost like a little bit of money in crypto.
00:07:50
Speaker
And I was kind of off it. Like it's ah it's ah it's a real pain tax wise in Australia. Like it's a pain to do like, I think each it's just like for reasons to be beyond the scope of this conversation, like it's ah it's a pain. And so I kind of took like a step back from crypto even now, like i would say like, yeah i don't spend ah I don't spend as much time in crypto. I think it's a really good place for people to sort of like cut their teeth because like it can get you in that mind. Like if you don't know what you're doing,
00:08:18
Speaker
but you have that mindset, like that arbitrage exploiter mindset, um you can do well in crypto. Whereas like, that's not like, like you know, like it's it's not like that in TradFi, which is where I spend most of my time now. But I do spend a bit of time in crypto. Like I wouldn't say i'm like completely out, but I just spend a lot less time than I used to.
00:08:39
Speaker
I to be a hundred percent crypto, if you know what i mean. Yeah. What made you like get into this mindset, because I think it's kind of unusual from most ah crypto participants or people on Twitter, of like because most people kind of just like want to make huge amounts of money, directionally betting on on whatever, and you're like approaching it more from a business perspective, and I guess you've always kind of been been doing that. whole like why Why do you think about the market like that instead of just being like, hey, I want to buy Dogecoin and be a millionaire from that?
00:09:09
Speaker
Well, I mean, for a start, like i mean like It is like a waste of time. Like it's, it's, um, um, it's not a waste of time. It's hard. Like, I feel like you want to be doing things that like aren't competitive, uh, um, you know, like speculating and directionally trading, it's not impossible. And like, I have sort of changed my, like, if you had of asked me a year ago, i would have been like directional trading is like a fool's errand. Don't waste your time on it. Like, If you're serious about this, you know what i mean? You hear from the one guy who was successful. You don't hear about all the people who weren't.
00:09:49
Speaker
um yeah I've since sort of changed my mind on that. um I don't directionally trade. i always just kind of thought it was too hard. And like the other thing as well is, and this is what like these people want. Okay, so there's a few ways to look at it. So like, so like number one, if you're successful, so suppose you start off with like $100,000 portfolio and you're like, let's do these arbitrage trades. Like, and you're doing these ARVs. and you get up to 200 grand, you know, it's like, nice work. Okay, now let's get it to like 400 grand. Each way you're building it like a business and like, it's easy to bet big on ARBs and like exploit, like, you know, it's easy to bet big on something where you kind of know the odds are so in your favor. Whereas like, if you yeah like turned a hundred grand into 200 grand on like buying Doge and it went up a hundred percent or whatever, like spot, it's like,
00:10:39
Speaker
Did you get lucky? Like, can you do that again? Like, can you, is this a repeatable task? And i I would say like, I would say it depends on the environment, but I would probably lean more towards no. There's obviously people who are really skilled with that. I'm not one of them. And like, I feel there's, there's this famous story too. Like, I'm sort of like, I'm so how long have you been in um crypto for sock?
00:11:01
Speaker
um I guess like first in 2017, like I first bought like my first Bitcoin and stuff, but like on Twitter since 2021. Okay. so So yeah, you've been around for like, you know, last few years. um Pretty much the same. And like, um I remember, i don't know if you remember, there was this guy called like Dizzen Pepe and um he was Australian and, um you know, he started off with like a few million dollars, like still a very respectable like amount of money, but like, and then he ran it up to like,
00:11:29
Speaker
like a hundred million betting on like layer two through a like avax and all this other fucking bullshit and then um the tax year ticked over he owed the ato which is like our irs like like tens of millions of dollars and then he lost it all and like i know that's like yeah and like he went like into like receivership or whatever like bankruptcy because like he lost everything and he still owed taxes and like i'm not saying that like you know i just feel like it's like if you think about this guy, like his thought process, like if you got to that level through doing directional bets, why wouldn't you think that you could get to that next level through doing the same thing? But I feel like it's hard to differentiate skill from luck. Um, and, and I really come back to that betting big. Cause like, you know, if you see a really, really, really good trade and it's like an arbitrage or it's like, you know, like something where you can really get the odds in your favor, you know, maybe it's worth betting like 20, 30, 40% of your portfolio.
00:12:29
Speaker
You know what I mean? Because you're like, this is this is huge. You know what I mean? And as you get like more and more, it'll be a lower percentage. But if you don't have a lot, like if you only got a hundred grand, maybe like, fuck it, let's put all of it in. Cause like, this is such a short thing. Like when I had that, when I did that Binance USD AUDR way back in 2021, like I put every dollar I had into it. I was like, this is so good. you know what I mean? Whereas like, um you know, whereas if I think about like betting every dollar you have on like, you know, the fluctuations of Doge.
00:12:57
Speaker
Or I don't know, I don't know what people trade now, but I imagine it's a fucking fool's errand. So, um, it's not to say you can't make money doing it. That's not to say that it's impossible, but I just feel like for me,
00:13:08
Speaker
um there's easier ways to extract money from the market. so what What made you like change your mind though on it being a bit more possible? Because I think I used remember that you also were a bit more of a hater of that and there's always like this this is discussion on Twitter like should you only do quantitative stuff or like is directly trading even worth it? And you've like written articles on on why you shouldn't trade. so like what what but it made you think differently there? I still stand by that article on like you shouldn't trade. Like... um I've got a sub stack. I'm like locked out of it. So if you, cause like you have to like verify your ID in Australia and I don't really want to. Yeah. And so like all of my, like, you know, my readers, my dear readers have suffered as a result, but um yeah, like I still think trading is in general is not a, is not a great use of time for most people. Like I know this is a trading podcast and blah, blah, blah. But like, I feel like if you're smart enough to succeed in trading, you're probably smart enough to succeed in somewhere else. But,
00:14:05
Speaker
let's just pretend like you have what like the listener you know has what it takes um you know directionally trading i read a lot about options and um i was doing like i learned a lot about options at the start of this year and at the end of last year and it made me think like um you know like okay so like what's okay so like let me ask you a question like what's the probability a stock goes up or down 50 tomorrow i mean what's sorry i just fucked it what's the probability of stock goes up or down tomorrow
00:14:37
Speaker
50 yeah it's 50 yeah it's like it could go up it could go down you know what i mean like it's probably slightly tilted towards going up because generally equities go up over time but um it's it's a coin flip right so um okay so are there things that could influence that like that probability like yeah that probably is so what if there was a 60 chance like okay like after feet like you know what i mean you can see how this could turn into um a weighted coin type situation like maybe you're looking at the auto correlation it has momentum um So it's like, okay, cool. um
00:15:08
Speaker
There's other things as well. Like maybe it has, um you're looking at like um the Hearst exponential and it's like trending and you know what I mean? You have some other things. So like that sort of changed my mind on it. I still don't do that. I think it's interesting. And like, I've i've spent time looking at it.
00:15:24
Speaker
I've spent more time looking at those strategies than I've made money from doing it. But that's usually how it goes with trading. You spend a bunch of time on something. Now it doesn't work. It doesn't work. It doesn't work. you're like living off your other trades that do kind of well. And then like you sort of have a breakthrough and then, you know, that hundred hours or whatever you spent on it is like reimbursed and with interest sort of thing. Yeah.
00:15:44
Speaker
Yeah.
00:15:46
Speaker
I think it's very interesting the perspective that you look at things because it makes like a lot more sense than how most people look at it. Directionally betting on stuff, especially if leverage is kind of like very minus EV if you like look at the numbers as well. Of course there are people that can do it well. but um It kind of makes sense to just like take the the free money in like arbitrage or like more or less free money in arbitrage and stuff like that. It's just a a lot more, it doesn't feel like as glamorous. It doesn't feel as rewarding as being like, hey, I'm directionally right. I'm like good at this or whatever. It's a bit more like tedious to do and execute and stuff like that. And you have to put in a bit more work. And I guess it's also kind of difficult to like find opportunities like that.
00:16:30
Speaker
Yeah, I would agree. And I would say, I would agree. And I would say like as well, like it's like, i'm it's not, it's not as like sexy or like, I don't know, like there's like an idea of a trader where like he's by the beach and, you know, he's like, you know what I mean? And like, he's like, ah, you know, like George Soros, you know, he read a newspaper and then I think there's a famous story where Soros, how he went on like a, um, what you're, you you're from Europe. What do you call those things where you get on to go on the snow? It's like, it takes you up. Um, oh fuck. ski li Yeah. He gets on a ski lift reading a newspaper and gets off it. And then like sells like,
00:17:03
Speaker
a billion dollars worth of bonds or whatever. There's like, store you know what i mean? There's like famous stories like that. And it's like, yeah, that's really cool and sexy and all this kind of shit. But you know what? I would actually argue that a lot of like directional traders are lazy and they're just like, you know, like they think, um you know, they think like they think because like the thing is trading, trading brings out like any industry where there's low barriers to entry and high rewards is going to have a lot of people. Like if you think about poker, um you know, sports, like all these things like, um you know, a lot of people will rock up, but only a few will be successful. And trading is kind of weird because like you sort of have people who like, you know, like the thing about trading that's weird is so like you have someone like, like liquidity goblin who's like, and sky, like absolute jet traders. And they're put in the same category as like the meme coin trader because they're both technically traders. Like they're not, they're not, there's not like they share, like it's like they both buy and sell things, but that's like saying like, A servo is a guy running a service station is similar to like a guy running a fruit shop because they both buy and sell things. It's like, yeah, I guess technically. And like, so, um, and yeah, trading, um, I think as well. And like, this is one thing I kind of wanted to touch on. So I think like now's a good time. And it's like, um, I think what compliments, um, I wanted to write an article on this, but, um, I think I've touched on it before, but it's like, you know, you want to have that like exploiters mindset.
00:18:29
Speaker
And like, there's so many ways to extract money out of the market. There's really not actually, I take that back. There's there's there's there's a few ways to do it. There's not a trillion ways. Do you know what i mean? Like there's there's only so many ways. Like um obviously like there's nothing new under the sun least of all in the stock market. So, um you know, one, you can look for places where you can be successful and like you have people who are really good directional traders. You have people who, you know, a quants and they're like, you know, let's like, you know, I do code and I do stuff like that, but I wouldn't like, um I do spend a lot of time doing those things, but I wouldn't say that's like, um i wouldn't I wouldn't put myself in that category. Whereas like the exploiter, the like when you're like, you want to approach markets with like an exploiting, like an exploiters mindset.
00:19:19
Speaker
And this is a twofold reason why you want to do it because um for a start, like, you know, I've been doing this for like a few years and it's like, you know, I've been fucked over in ways I didn't even think like, it's crazy how bad, like I've been like, oh, this isn't going to happen. And it's happened. I'm like, fuck, you know what I mean? So like, if I had have taken that into account, maybe I would have done things a little bit differently. um You know? um And so if you have that exploiters mindset, the first thing is when you look at these new things, you want to think like, okay, how can this be exploited? And you don't have to be the one to exploit it, but if you're aware that it can be exploited, you know, that can, you can cross it off your list and be like, okay, I'm not getting involved in this. um The next thing over is um if it can't be exploited, then it's probably safe to get in. It's safer to get involved. And like, I remember, um you know, um yeah, and i it's it's hard to teach, but like I learned a lot of it from Sky.
00:20:16
Speaker
um And like, it's like that exploiter's mindset. Like I really can't like, I can't harp on it. on about it enough because I feel like a lot of people like who are trying to enter that arbitrage mindset would save themselves a lot of time trying to look at things through those lenses do you maybe have like any examples to like run this through to make it a bit more tangible sure so um okay um okay okay here's one um tell me what could go wrong with this okay so um um
00:20:53
Speaker
hot Okay, so like Hyperliquid released stocks and they trade like 24-7. So um you are, you know, and a guy looking to get involved, you know, with your exploiter mindset, your arbitrage mindset, and you see that um it's trading at a premium over the weekend.
00:21:16
Speaker
um
00:21:19
Speaker
Yeah, I think this actually happened. So this is like a kind of a good, like, um Okay, so like you, um so like i like the the basis of a carry trade is like you go long the spot and short the perp essentially or the futures and then you collect the funding or you collect the role or whatever it is, the carry. And so um really simple trade, like great thing for everyone to like cut their teeth on just to start to understand like what it means to like provide a service to the market. So like, I think it was, um oh no, you know what it was? Okay, so this is what happened. So um Amazon,
00:21:52
Speaker
was, or I think it was Amazon was trading on hyper liquid, the market closed, it went down a few percent and everyone rushed in to buy it. Cause they're like, this is an easy trade. It's down 3%. Yeah. Okay. So like, everyone's like, this is, this is dumb. Like, I'm just going to buy as much as I can. Okay. Let me ask you, what do you think could go wrong?
00:22:11
Speaker
Like with that, like what, like you buying it at that discount, like what's a few things that could happen that could like go wrong with that.
00:22:19
Speaker
um I mean, I guess it sometimes happens with stocks that when the market is closed and opens again, they like just gap down. Yeah. I mean, that's the first one. That's the first one, like straight away, like you're buying something for what you perceive to be at a discount and maybe it's still at a premium or maybe it's um it's fair and you're just wasting your time buying something and taking this additional risk.
00:22:40
Speaker
Okay. Here's another thing that I would think about. What's stopping it from going down 10%, you know, like what is the mechanism that stops that from happening? Because there's not, it's not like you can, and if you're doing, um, these trades, like you can't rush to add collateral. You can't. So like, I think it went down a few percent and everyone rushed in. i think that guy from Twitter, the guy who pretends to be a cat, like CL bought it.
00:23:03
Speaker
And then like, it went down 10% and just everyone got fucking nerfed and it was just like yeah blood bath. And then it just, so like this guy just like totally played the game. Um, so like being aware that those sorts of things can happen that like, um,
00:23:17
Speaker
You know, sometimes you think, you know, sometimes you think you're the predator and you're the prey. Another one, another one that was like, um, a few years ago, this is like, I'm kind of dating myself, but, um, there was this, there was this protocol and, um, there was this protocol and, um, um, it offered like insurance against D pegs on all these random, like, um, like, like, what are stable coins that like, you know, are kind of obscure. And the returns on them were like really good. Like you were like, fuck, people are buying insurance on this stuff. And if you think about it, you'll be like, oh yeah, it makes sense. People are buying insurance. They're worried about DPEGs. Like, okay, blah, blah, blah. um And their returns were really good for like a short period of time. Like I think one was like, you know, like 26% in two months. And it's like, oh wow, okay. Like this looks really good. It was liquidity constrained, but it was still decent. And I think the way that ended was um everyone loaded up on this insurance and it got really cheap. And someone worked out, like say it was like 26% for two months, it got down to like 10%. I can't remember. Something like that.
00:24:23
Speaker
And then um someone came along and just fucked the peg. Because like they were getting 10 to 1 on it breaking. And they were like, yeah well, it only costs this much to de-peg it. And I'm going to stand to make this much. Another one was Avi with Mango Markets. Like, so if you looked at Mango Markets and you were like, like there were some really good trades on Mango Markets. Like this is a few years ago. But, you know, lot of people got absolutely wrecked. So it's like, cause they lost like, you know, um so it's like, okay, let's think about this. Um, you know, that the way that collateral works or whatever, like if this happens, i'm going to lose everything. So maybe you would think, okay, the trades are still good enough to do, but instead of having 10% of my portfolio there, I'll only have five and maybe, or two, and maybe use a higher leverage and just deposit it. If it gets to that, you know what I mean? Cause you're like, suppose like something's cheap and you're buying it. you know, and it gets cheaper, like you were able to deposit money in time, so you don't get liquidated and like become a victim to the, you know, it's cheapness sort of thing. So, um, um, yeah, I just like, um, I always encourage, like, that's sort of one way to look at it. And like another way I think about it is like, if you're looking at a trade or like a protocol and crypto or anything, just think about like, I know this sounds weird, but it's like, think about it if you picked up like the protocol, if it were a box and you fucking shook it and smashed it on the ground, Like, would it still work?
00:25:43
Speaker
And, like, if, like, the answer... And, like, all the things you could do to exploit it, like, and if the answer is yes, then it's, like, okay, it's safe. You know what I mean? Whereas if the answer, like, um yeah, if the answer is no, then, like, you know, either you be the one... Like, you know, you could be the one to exploit it or you could be the one to, um you know what I mean? um There was something else I saw the other day and it was, like, this was today. It was, like, Polymarket, like, betting on the... um the um FDV or what is it? Fully di it dilated um value of like something. And this dude was like, wait until it was like five minutes before the close on Polymarkets, just before it ended and then loaded up on a bunch and just fucking banged the close. So like that, it didn't end up getting ruled in his favor, but like, those are the kinds of things. Cause like, you might see that and be like, oh, this is over that. So like, it was like a hundred million dollars FDV. So it's like, oh, this is way over that. This is like the safe, you know, like, It's paying 10% and it's 10 minutes away. oh I'll grab as much as this as they'll give me. And then like old mate comes along with like comes out with the fucking hammer and next minute, like, you know, you're ah you're a victim to, um you know what I mean? The exploiter. So yeah, that's kind of, um yeah, that's kind of how I think about that. It's like, it's like thinking about the metagame. Don't just think about the game. Think about, think about the other players in the game and how that transcends it sort of thing. So I suppose that's a better way of saying it than like the exploiter's mindset.
00:27:03
Speaker
What's been like some times where you have been exploited that like told you all these lessons? Oh, loads, loads. Like, um you know, i've I've lost money like every way. Like, um you know, um it's it's you get you get fucked a lot on like convergence trades.
00:27:20
Speaker
Like you think, um oh yeah, this won't trade there. And then it does. And you're just like, oh, like you're in like withering pain. You're just like like paralyzed. You're like, well, it was cheap at 10 and now it's like at six. So like, it should be cheaper. I should be buying more. And it's like, you're just like, fuck, I'm down a few hundred grand.
00:27:37
Speaker
um So if it's like ah cheaper on one exchange than on the other, and then you're like longing one and shorting the other. Yeah, like that. or like that sort yeah Or like, for example, like if you're doing like, um like one of the trades on um FTX was like, you'd go like short the futures and long the perp and the perp would have a really good carry. And then the futures would have, um you know what I mean? And then like,
00:27:59
Speaker
if you thought about it, like the perp should never trade more than X and you know, blah, blah, blah. And it should be like linear. And then like every, so and like, you know what I mean? So it's like, you know, i remember, i think I've spoken him about it before, but it's like this, this spread was trading at this price.
00:28:15
Speaker
And then there was another price where it got to, where I never thought like, it was kind of like, it wasn't impossible, but it was like, it didn't make any sense for it to be there because the carry was so great. Cause I thought other,
00:28:28
Speaker
arbitrages, you know, would get involved or whatever, but it traded there. And I was just like, holy fuck. Like, i think like intraday, I was down like 350 grand. Like it really hurt.
00:28:39
Speaker
Um, and so, you know, um, if I had have known that maybe I would have said, Hey, like I'll put on less size, but then, um, you know what I mean? Like I would have allocated, I would have said, Oh, I'll keep money here in case this happens or whatever. Um, so, um,
00:28:55
Speaker
Yeah, and i couldn't get and like I couldn't get enough money out of TradFi into crypto in time to like, you know what I mean? So it was just like, and it wasn't a realized loss. Like I didn't realize that loss, but like it was still extremely painful.
00:29:09
Speaker
um You know, um yeah, I mean, there's not really, there's just like, if you're so if you get like fucked over a few times, it kind of like tips your hand at like all the ways that it can happen sort of thing. So yeah
00:29:25
Speaker
I feel like it it sounds almost like these types of losses are more difficult to stomach psychologically in a way than if you just like trade random directional stuff or whatever, because there you kind of expect to like either go go big or go home. But if if you have like higher conviction stuff or stuff where you think it's like the losses are kind of limited and then you still get a big loss, it kind of hurts more. At least that's what I would imagine. Yeah. And like you're sizing high, right? Like, I mean, it's like you've got like you know, whatever amount of money and you're betting on Doge going higher, unless you're using leverage, like you're probably going to, you know, limit like, you know, whereas with this, you might be like oh my God, this is like free money. I can't believe my good fortune. And then you're like, you know, three weeks later, to like ah in a ball under your desk. Like, you know what I mean? Like, you know, you're just like far out. So yeah, um yeah I think, um yeah, a hundred percent. Yeah. I think, i'm yeah. But you know, I think the other thing as well, and like, um I've touched on this in the past, it's like, um,
00:30:21
Speaker
for all like aspiring traders, like I am like, you know, um, I'd really urge you to try to build like a network of people who are doing similar trades to yourself. And, um, I think like, it's really, really hard to like, like, like it's, it's, it's hard to express how, um, important it is like, um, for reasons like, you know, i had a trade recently, um that I was looking into and um i I, was like, I think there's something there. I'm not sure if there's something there. And then like, I called one of my friends and spoke to them on the phone for like an hour.
00:31:02
Speaker
There was something there, but I was looking at it the wrong way. You know what I mean? And it's like, it's like, those are the kinds of things where like, maybe it it could have taken me a week. You know what I mean? Of sitting there and just like that. Cause the other thing about these trades are, it's not simple. It's like, it's like, imagine if I like, it's like, there's, there's like,
00:31:19
Speaker
you know, some of these trades that I do are like, they're fucking weird. Like they're weird trades and not, these aren't like, you know, oh yeah i'm going to buy this or whatever. It's like, Hey, this, um, you know what I mean? It's like, they're straight, they're unusual trades. So, um, it's like, you can't just have like a normal mindset to be like, oh, like you have to think like, how can I take advantage of this? Cause I think there's something there, but I'm not sure. How can I, um, you know, how can I maximize the odds in my favor and sort of thing. So like having a network of people who do similar trades, So like if you're a guy who's like a quant trader, there's probably not a lot of value in you being like mates with like a breakout trader because it's like the overlap's not really there. um Whereas like if you're an aspiring like, um you know, if you're an aspiring quant trader or whatever and then you, um you know, you're posting on Twitter about your journey and like all the things you're learning along the way and like questions and you're like harassing people, like trying to get answers. Like, you know, you get added to group chats and then like there's other people in there and it sort of has this like, compounding effect where you up being made to all these dudes who like, you know, you're all sort of in the same boat. And then if you think you have something, someone else might be in the same position or had that same, you know what i mean? You might think, oh, there's something here. And then the thing is, there's no real, like there's only so many ways to get money out of the market, right? So like, if you think you've got this trade, unless like it's a legitimate alpha arbitrage trade, you know, you can probably share it because like, there's just not, you know what I mean? So, you know, you can say to your mate, like, hey, like I'm thinking about this thing. What do you think? um So yeah, I think i think that's like it's really important because like it's it's really hard to um it's you know you it's it's it's it's really important. yeah, I can't overemphasize enough to do that. yeah
00:33:05
Speaker
why Why did you like not follow your own advice of not becoming a trader? Okay, so that's a great question. What makes you different? what what like what What is the profile of the sort of person that should ignore what you say there?
00:33:17
Speaker
okay so i Okay, so it's all about expected value. So like that's that's like really good. So like I had like ah moderately successful e-commerce business. And then when I got into trading, it was like a bonanza. like you know like I'm sure you'll have other guests on, like you've had liquidity, like ask them from now on, like what was 2021 like for you? And they'll be like, you know, even, even like, even the biggest like fucking idiot will be like, it was just like, wake up, make money, go to sleep. You know what mean? And like, it was a bonanza for everyone. Like every time, I mean, obviously not everyone, like there was obviously people who like didn't do super well, but like the whole ecosystem of people who make money, like your breakout traders did well, your momentum guys did well, your like, you know, your guys like me who were like doing the arbitrage and like, you know, they did well and like, um, due to, uh, the arbitrages were really, really good because there was so much money like on chain. So like, there was just all these opportunities that like just aren't there anymore. And like, um, you know, there was, um, you know, there was all these other weird shit as well. There was like, um, like DeFi summer and all this kind of shit. So, um, I had, I had a little bit of money saved and, um, I was like just looking at the cash and carry trade and I'm just like,
00:34:34
Speaker
Dude, I can make like hundreds of that this, this will make more than my business. Like, what is this? Like, do you know what I mean? i i have to get involved. And then i got involved in that. And then, um, you know like, um, I was doing that and then I found that, uh, and then I found another, uh, and that other, uh, that I found just was hectic.
00:34:53
Speaker
It was hectic. Like, it was like, Matt, like the first month I did it, like, I think, um, like. I think it was either like 50 grand or 80 grand or something like in a month of just doing like just straight sitting at the screen click. And this isn't like, Oh, I bought Doge at like whatever, like, no, this is like every day I'm just in front of the screens, just clicking away. And it's like 50 bucks, a hundred bucks, 200 bucks, like 50 bucks, like all day, just click click, click, click, click. And, um, and then, um, you know, and then it got to this stage where like, cause the thing is with like, with like capital, it's like with trading, it's all about like relative. So like, for example, Like, suppose you've got like $100,000 and you're like, yeah, I want to take up trading. And like, you have a reasonable, like, like okay let okay, let's put it another way. Suppose you have a million dollars and like for whatever reason, you have a reasonable um expectations to make like 50% a year, just for example. Like, does it make sense for you to pursue trading?
00:35:54
Speaker
Like, it it depends on your opportunity set. But like, if it's between that or getting a job for a hundred grand a year, I would say, fuck yeah. Like, I would say like, dude, get involved in like, if you think you can do it and like, you know, you like, you know, like, you're just going to lose all your money. Like if you have, like, if you think you can do it and you can do it, then yeah, definitely. But if you're a guy who's like, Hey, I've got like a hundred grand, I think I can make 30% or whatever. Um, should I go into trading? And it's like, dude, like that's like 30 grand a year,
00:36:24
Speaker
like it depends on what you're doing but i'm kind of like and like there's easier ways to extract like if you had less than like you know what i mean it's like there's there's like easier ways to make money with less risk sort of thing um and that's how i always see things like i always try to look through the lens of like the risk you know like the expected value because like i know it's like cliche and it's like you know like everyone talks about it all the time but it's like you know And it's relative to your opportunity set because like, suppose you had a million dollars. Okay. So like back to that guy with a million dollars, you think he he can make 50% a year. If he just quit being like a trader making a few million dollars a year and he's like, I just really want to be my own boss. I'd be like, dude, go get a fucking job. Like you risk none of your money. You know what I mean? It's like, you risk none of your own money. You'll work somewhere else. Like you make, like that's a way, even if, even if he had the opportunity to trade with someone else's money and make 500 grand, I'd be like, yeah, do that because that way you're not risking any of your own. Like it's a great trade. Um, so.
00:37:18
Speaker
Yeah, it's it's relative to the opportunity set and, um you know, and the other thing as well, I wrote like an article and it was like, so you want to be a trader because like there's this like, like I think there's this like French dude on Twitter called like Heart Theorem or something and like, um he's Italian over there but yeah. Yeah, I think he's French. I've heard he's French from a few people and I'm,
00:37:39
Speaker
there's just i'm pretty sure he's italian i'm pretty sure he's french anyways um um anyways um there's this french guy on twitter called ethereum and like he posted this thing saying like this is a long time ago like this is like last year not like that long ago but he's like you know being a traitor is easy whatever i'm like bro you're a fucking retard like that's just not true like what are you getting out of saying that do you know what i mean and then like i just break it down in this article and i'm like this is why it's not worth it. This is why it's not worth it. Like going through why it's not worth it. And then at the end, I'm like, and this is what I'm going to say to you now, like my listener, like, um, if at the end you're like, you know what? I don't give a fuck what this guy says. I still think i have what it takes. You've got a shot. You know what I mean? Because like, you know, it's like one of those things where it's like, if you really want to do going to do it no matter what I say. So good luck. And you know, I always kind of feel sorry for them because it's like, um, they're like, it's like, they're either going to be like, there's no, like,
00:38:35
Speaker
if If you can be talked out of being a trader, you're probably never going to be a trader. If you don't care, then it's like, fuck, man, you've a long road ahead of you. But the flip side is this is for people who learn to trade on their own.
00:38:46
Speaker
Like I just assume you and me, like liquidity goblin and sky and those guys like koala, they want to go to job on a desk. It's like, that's probably the smart way to do it. Cause then you're not learning with your own money. Like, you know, so that's probably like a smarter way to learn to do this. I wasn't that fortunate. I was, self-taught so but yeah I suppose that's the best way to do it.
00:39:08
Speaker
I think like thinking about it in this plus EV way actually makes a lot of sense. I've heard like over the years a couple of times people just saying the like if you have a small portfolio because that's always like the kind of question like if you have a small portfolio what should you do? Where should you get started? And then it's like maybe not that much now but like back in a couple of years ago it was like could airdrop farming and stuff like that. There's of stuff to yeah.
00:39:32
Speaker
but basic stuff where you can get like a decent amount of return even if you don't have that much capital to begin with. But like the the highest EV thing to do if you don't have a lot of money is always like get a job.
00:39:43
Speaker
Yeah, I would... Because then you have like some steady income and then even with with that money you can still pursue these other opportunities but they're just like way more worth it and you also don't need to worry about paying your rent from like a potential ad rub or something that you're getting. I 100% agree and like not just that, like I mean I mean, the next level is starting your own business because that's where like, you know what I mean? Like that's where like, I mean, fuck, look at in silico. Like, you know, like it's like that next level where it's like, you know, you can you generate income that's irrelevant of your performance because the business is successful. um The other thing as well is like, um I would say if you don't have a lot of capital, there are still ways to make money in the markets. Like, you know, like if you have if you have five or 10 grand, you can still turn that into 10, 20 grand or whatever.
00:40:27
Speaker
um Like it's not that hard. There's lots of like tricks for a tick, but you run into problems as you size up. And that's when it's kind of like, you know, you might've built bad habits. Cause like, you know, like making, like doing like doing match betting to rip off bookies, offering a deposit bonus for 500 bucks is pretty good when you've got five grand. It's not when you got 50, you know what I mean? And that that's when you got to look at that next level. But like, if you have that arbitrage mindset,
00:40:55
Speaker
You know, those things will just come natural, like naturally to you because you'll be like, you know, you'll see that, you know what I mean? You'll you'll make that progression kind of thing. But, um yeah.
00:41:06
Speaker
did Didn't you go through that where you like got like banned of every single betting site because you like abuse all the signup bonuses and stuff? Yeah, I've done heaps of shit like that, man. There's no, like, dude, I'm telling you right now, like, I am like, like, like, ah like I was, yeah, 100%.
00:41:20
Speaker
I had a foray, like a little like um dabble into sports betting last year. And I like wrote a sub stack about it because the market does seem inefficient at some levels, like at some places like, um but um it was a lot of work and like, it's not a lot of money. Like I remember like in my um in my city, there was like a blackout and I had to go for like a walk to check my emails because like the towers were down or whatever. And like,
00:41:47
Speaker
I had made like more than ah I'd made like in the blackout because I hadn't been able to check my phone for like a day or two. I had made more than I would have made in like six months of betting. And I was like, what the fuck am I doing? Do you know what I mean? I'm like, this is such a waste of time. like um So like, but that sports betting though, if you have 10, 50 grand, maybe not, like maybe not like get Andrew Mack, a good friend of mine, like he's written incredible books. He's been so generous with his knowledge, like pick up a few of his books. um Robot James just today wrote um an article on um sports betting. Read that.
00:42:21
Speaker
um Like there are opportunities there. But yeah, like I said, like it depends on like the skills. It depends on like your opportunity set. Like um so yeah, for me, not worth it really.
00:42:32
Speaker
But like at some like, dude, I was going to like the fucking pub every day to put bets on at the TAB, like in the machine because you can't get banned from there. And like, It was such a pain, like the pub would open at 10 and I'm like, I look like this piss wreck like waiting at the front, like to put all these manual beds in and there's like all these like fucking losers around me.
00:42:51
Speaker
And I've got like, like my, I've got like my iPhone and I'm like, look at like putting in all these beds and all this stuff. And I've got like three or four grand on me, like feeding fifties into the machine. And I'm like, dude, someone's going to try to jump me one day. Like I'm here every day at the same time. And I'm like betting on like NBA prop bets. I was like betting on like and NBA prop bets. I wasn't an idiot. Like i wore like a Muay Thai shirt. You know what I mean? So they knew not to fuck. Nah, I'm joking. But like, im you know, like I'm betting on like NBA prop bets. And it's like, hmm, like, you know, this is taking a lot of time. It's like if I were to redirect this energy into like, you know, trading where I'm like already moderately successful, like maybe I would have like, you know,
00:43:30
Speaker
are more, so more six. And yeah, that was ultimately like my decision, but it was still really interesting. Like it was still, it was still like a fun experience. Cause I feel like I did learn a lot. I did like, it does lend itself to training, uh, trading in some respects. So I feel like i I still got stuff out of it, but yeah, I mean, it was like, nah, fuck this. Like we can make money somewhere else.
00:43:49
Speaker
I feel like this is a really good example of this ah exploiters mindset that you mentioned earlier. Because when i I remember when i when I read about you doing that, I was like, who the fuck comes up with this idea? Like, how even think about shit like this?
00:44:01
Speaker
Yeah, you you'd like, I mean, you just saw rabbi know if you'd lose your mind trying to understand mine. No, I'm joking. But it's like, it's like yeah, you need to be like you need to be like, you always have to be like, and you know, I learned a lot of it from Sky because like, it's like, um you got to think you got to think like you got to think it'ss you got to think about things differently. It's not enough because we all know what we all know. You know what I mean? So you have to like, you have to like every roadblock, there's ways around it. And like, it all just depends on the reward, like getting banned from every bookie, for example, like, you know, like, like not many people, like I'm banned from Bybit, dude.
00:44:36
Speaker
Like, do you know the fucking shit you have to do to get banned from Bybit? Like, like you want to talk about like an exploiter's mindset? Like, like they like have personal, like, you know, I'm not welcome there. Um,
00:44:49
Speaker
There's ah like, you know what I mean? So like there's so there's, there's, there's, um, and this is what it comes like back to, like what, like, it's like, look for low hanging fruit. Like, you know, um, I always think about like efficient markets and like markets are pretty efficient.
00:45:05
Speaker
So, um, you want to look for places where they're, um, inefficient and like, are there, are there, um, are there opportunities that, um, like, okay, when are they inefficient? How are they inefficient? Like, you know, the first thing you got to do is work out, well, what what is an efficient market? You know what I mean? And then once you go through looking at those sorts of things, then you can sort of get an understanding about where maybe you can scratch around to take advantage of, you know what I mean? Like Sky sky just posted yesterday. Okay, so here's one for you. um Like, ah there was um a stock
00:45:43
Speaker
And it was trading on like Hyperliquid or one of these one of these places where they offer um where they offer your access they offer offer you access to perps. So it's trading at like $7 or something or whatever it is, $10. And then the next minute it's trading at $14. Okay, how could that happen? Because the Oracle it $10 at $11.59 and at $12.01, it went from being denominated USD into sterling.
00:46:07
Speaker
and at twelve i won it went from being denominated in usd into sterling And so it had to go up 50%. Like the Oracle, if you were short that, you got like wrecked. You know what I mean? Because like the Oracle's like, I don't fucking know. Like, I mean, they they can't make adjustments. They just look at the price and the price is a price. So, um you know, that's like, that's a great, like, that's a great trade.
00:46:30
Speaker
Like that is a great trade. um You know, if you were looking at, okay, like for all you fucking novices out there who want to like a little bit of alpha, like I can do that for you on this. I can give you a little taste. Um, like looking at, um, looking at those and maybe like there's, um, you know, looking at those places, like maybe, um, there's a dividend coming up.
00:46:51
Speaker
Like does, does that, does that crypto protocol where they have perps and equities is listed as perps take dividends into account? Like, and this is what you have to do people. Like it's not enough to fucking check a chart and see if something's going to go up or down, you know, you, you know, like, like it's,
00:47:10
Speaker
You know, you got to you've got to be serious about this. It's a business. And like you're you're competing against people who love it. You know what I mean? like like um Like I wake up every day. I'm so excited to get to my desk. Like I'm so excited to find new trades and think about this. And how can i get the drop on these cunts? You know what I mean? And like that's like, you know, and I'm not even that good at it. Like some of some of my friends, like they're really good at it. You know, they're like they're fucking apex predators.
00:47:34
Speaker
So like, you know, if you're just like, oh, yeah, I'm just going like, so like I'm just going to like waltz in and just like, you know, ring up the till and take the money and walk out. Like, I mean, yeah, it's possible. It is possible because like there are trades where you're like providing a service to the market and you can extract money. So like if you're doing a cash and carry, yeah, like that's perfectly normal. But if you like, um and like that's fine, but your expectations have to reflect that. Whereas like if you want to be like generating higher returns and you want to be involved in these like weird trades, you know, you have to, you have to spend a lot of time looking at them and thinking about them. And then you're going to spend a lot of time wasting time. Cause you're going to fuck around. Cause most of the time there's nothing there. Like I remember ages ago, I talked about how it's like, you know, your, your next trade is probably 20 trades away.
00:48:17
Speaker
Like you have to, you will investigate 20 trades before you find the next trade. That's going to do really well. And that's, that's like so exciting. You know what I mean? Because you never know, like it might, it might be the next trade. It might not be, who cares? Like, but either way, like if you love doing this and you know, you'll be like gleefully like, you know,
00:48:35
Speaker
looking at the next trade sort of thing. So yeah.
00:48:39
Speaker
How do you like deal with the mental load of looking at this many different like opportunities or like this many different markets and and reading the Oracle specs, contract specs, or whatever? It's just like such a broad field of of things to do. Because there's many people that just day trade Bitcoin or whatever, for example, and then just have this one thing that you're like focusing on, but you're like all over the place.
00:49:01
Speaker
how How do you like write do do you like journal, like write stuff down? or Yeah, I think like i think like i think like i think Andrew Mack talks about like how You know, if you notice something weird or if you have an idea, just like jot it down.
00:49:12
Speaker
And that way, when times are quiet, you can sort of investigate it. I would also say like, you know, i think um Sky talks about it and I talked about in one of my blog posts. It's like um explore versus exploit. And like normally what happens with traders is like um they've found a trade, they're exploiting it.
00:49:31
Speaker
um They're spending like 90% of their time exploiting this trade. They're not really thinking about finding the next trade. So they just exploit, exploit, exploit. The trade ends for whatever reason they always do. And then it's like, fuck, you know, and now they have to explore. So it's all about striking that balance between the other thing I'll say as well as like when you've had success, like success creates success. So like if you've, if you've had success in one trade um or maybe you haven't had success, but you've seen a trade and you've seen that it can be successful, you know, that's got breadcrumbs around it. So you're like, okay, fuck. So like, where's, the next thing that's similar so like for example like if you had success um you know with um what we're talking about like looking at oracles and all that stuff um doing like looking at like corporate announcements and that kind of thing like um you know okay so like okay so here's one so suppose that dividend thing actually worked like i don't know i haven't done that trade but like suppose it does like um maybe you get a list of every stock that's on um hyper liquid and um and you set um google alerts for all of them for dividends So like if there's going to be a dividend on any of those stocks, you're going to an email saying like upcoming dividend alert for blah, blah, blah. And you're like, okay, cool. So that's how you stand on of it. um You know, I have missed out on a lot of trades because I've had other shit on my plate, but I would say like, it's just try to have like a good ratio of explore versus exploit. Like, and if you have a trade that's good and it's working, like, you know, like try to think outside the box and think about other ways like that it's similar. You know what I mean? Like this is something I'm doing now. So like just today I was on the phone to Liquidity Goblin. um
00:51:06
Speaker
I thought I was going to be on the phone to him for like 10 minutes. We were on the phone for like an hour and 20 or whatever, like some like extremely long time. Cause I'm like, dude, there's something here. Like I know like there's something here. Like I just, I just think there's something here. And this was an offshoot to another trade that I was looking at. And I'm like, I like through this other trade, I found this and I'm like, I don't like there's money here.
00:51:28
Speaker
I don't know how, but like, i know you know what I mean? And like, it was kind of in a weird domain where I know he has like a lot of knowledge in. And there was, like, it looks like there is. And now it's just about how are we going to extract, you know, that money out. Like, um so um yeah, like normally they're interconnected. Like there's very, very rarely where you go from doing like one trade that's like, ah like even when I think about my, like, um you know, when I was doing those cash and carry trades and then I'm doing that USD, Binance arb. It's like the next trade that came after that was an on-chain arb. Like, well, I mean, it's not it's not fucking chalk and cheese. Like, it's not, you know what I mean? Like, it was kind of like the next logical step.
00:52:09
Speaker
um And that really, and like, just to what I was saying before about liquidity goblin, like, that's why it's really important to um have these networks. You know what I mean? Because like, you might think there's something there. If you have people you can call and speak to, it makes it a lot easier to either strike things out and be like, nah, there's nothing here.
00:52:27
Speaker
you know whatever like let's move on to the next one but it also makes it easier if you're like you know because if your friends like hold on you know this this does seem weird you know there might be something here you know then it's like okay there is something here i'm not going crazy there was another time where um you know i thought i had a trade i put it on and then i messaged sky fucking koala adverse select he's like no there's something here i put it on and then it starts going against me i lost like 10 grand i messaged sky's like yeah you're a retard like This is right. You know what I mean? So sometimes you got to be, you know, that wasn't Kawhi. That wasn't Kawhi's fault. That was mine. But like, yeah you know what I mean? So. It's good to have friends like that.
00:53:00
Speaker
Yeah, it's good. Like you got to. So like if you're training a certain style and you're posting about it on Twitter, like, you know, you'll find your sort of tribe kind of thing. Mm-hmm.
00:53:10
Speaker
we We've talked a bit or like a lot now about crypto or mostly about crypto, but you mentioned earlier that you've ventured a bit away from that or also like doing more more TreadFi stuff. I'm like for for one, i'm I'm kind of curious ah if you could talk about it, what sort of stuff you you do in TreadFi, because I imagine it's quite different from what you've talked about so far. And also what what do you think about like um opportunities in crypto?
00:53:33
Speaker
right now and like in the future if it's just like a bit more barren because of like market structure right now and it's going to come back or are you like bearish on the industry as a whole or what's your view on that? I don't really have like directional views like I'm like a really good contra indicator like if I ever think something's over like and I'm starting to get that feeling about Bitcoin where it's over so it's probably getting time to buy like in like I never hold equities I only really hold cash Like, I mean, I do, I trade, but I'm not like a long-term holder of like, you know, the queues or whatever. And um in November, I was like thinking about it and I was like talking to my missus and I'm like, you know, I just think AI is like, it's going to be really important. Like, and dude, I bought the fucking top. Like, you know what I mean? Like I bought like like i bought the top. like Like, I'm really bad with like directional training. Like I'm really bad at it. So, you know, there's people who made money from it, just not me. um And then, um you know, I've had heaps of stories like that. where I just totally like, like I'll post about Twitter. I'll be like, you know, talking shit about Bitcoin. And like, it's the bottom, like the, like I remember like when, I remember when, I remember when FTX happened and like, I like bear posted when Bitcoin was 16K. I'm like, yeah, I'm buying the 10 dude. It was like never at 16 again. So like, yeah, always like, don't listen to me people. But um I would say like, um there's always going to be, i shouldn't say always, There's usually opportunity in crypto for like, um, like, um, you're like switched on trader, like your, um, enthusiast, um, exploiter, you know what I mean? For like someone who's like someone who's enthusiastic about those sorts of things and has the time to look into them. There's always going to be those trades there. Um, I would also say like, um, they're easier to find in crypto and they're easier to like wrap your head around. Cause it's like, like.
00:55:26
Speaker
in crypto you're gonna get fucked over right so once you like i feel like some dudes from trad fi go over to crypto and they're like you know what the fuck like this is against the rules like i can't it's like yeah like no shit you know what mean like it's there's no rules yeah there's rules yeah the rule is there's no rules you know what i mean and they're like you know like oh this guy you know they're just like they're like oh this is unfair or like know but it is what it is and like back when uh who was it called like mark mark cuban yeah yeah yeah do you remember when he invested in like this what was it iron finance yeah vividly remember that yes
00:56:01
Speaker
And then afterwards he was like, no, we need regulation for this. This can't be happening. That's what I mean. Like, and he was like shilling it like so hard and he's like, yeah. And then like, remember like he unfollowed Kobe and Kobe's like, I'll see you in a few years when me and my friends sell our shit to you again. It's like, oh dude, like, wow. um Yeah. I think like, um I think like, um there's always going to be those like opportunities um in crypto. um They're not,
00:56:29
Speaker
they're easier to find and they're easier to understand. Like, I mean, the classic example, like when we were talking about like Amazon, Amazon the other week, like over the weekend, it went down 2% or 3% or whatever. Like if you had of bought it, like, I mean, you're not reinventing the wheel here, people. Like, you know what i mean? Like it's training for below fare, but like there's no news out. Trump didn't invade. This is like, this is probably like a month or two ago, really. Now I think about it, like it was definitely earlier in the year and it's like, you know, this was before the Iran thing. Whereas like, you know, um If Iran was like, you know, like if oil closes at a one hundred and then like it gets up to 110 and this whole thing in Iran is happening, like that's probably not what we're looking for. You know what I mean? Because like, there's probably something happening that you don't understand or that like, and which is fine. It's like, you know, you just don't know. Whereas, um, yeah, so I would say, and there's heaps of things in crypto. There's heaps of, there's heaps of like, um, one thing that I ran into was, um, you know, you can find these like dead chains and they have like these liquidity pools where like you can, arbitrage the pool because nobody cares anymore like nobody cares but like what i found was this was because that's what i was doing on chain and then the bear market came and like these pools used to have like 20 million dollars in them like genuinely like they'd have 20 million dollars in them and then they would have like 500k like you know what i mean like um like the the ust the ust um like beth or eth yeah beth pool on like terra luna had like yeah like 20 million dollars in it And then like that was like, you know, and then you go on like, like then like you go over to like some other like chain and like, you know, um like one of the top five chains and there's like, you know, the liquidity pools have like hundreds of thousands of dollars in them. It's like, yeah, okay. If you don't have a lot of money, but you want to take advantage of, you know what I mean? Like a mispricing, a stale pricing, like that's something you can do. um
00:58:19
Speaker
So yeah, for the young guys, I think that that's a good place to start. I still think it's a good place to start. I'm not like anti crypto. um i think it's um I think it's good.
00:58:31
Speaker
I don't don't really have any strong... I mean, I'm always going to love it because it did help me get that first. like i'm always not I'm always going to be very like nostalgic about crypto, but um yeah I'm not like a like a Bitcoin enthusiast or whatever. I'm not like, oh, yeah, and then, you know what I mean?
00:58:48
Speaker
Not expecting the 2021 conditions to come back anytime soon. Yeah, I think about that a lot, and I think about that. There's this like... does this like um like, um, like homosexual Belgium guy on Twitter called like duck.
00:59:03
Speaker
And like, he's like this, um, guy. And basically when Bitcoin was like 15 grand, he called it going to a hundred grand. And he got into this argument with this other guy who was like this, like, um, like I think he was like a Saudi Arabian prince or something. And like, they're going back and forth. And I was like on the side of the Saudi Arabian prince. I'm like, yeah, there's no fucking way it's gone a hundred grand. And he was right.
00:59:26
Speaker
and like because like my argument at the time this is what i mean dude always bet against me people like if you ask me where the market's going like to like i like do the opposite but it's like um yeah you know like um it's like the conditions that were around to get it to 60 grand the idea that it could get back and you don't know like i mean like the conditions that got 2021 were like they're sending checks in the mail There's easy money. Inflation's run away. People are just speculating for the sake of speculating. Like, yeah, maybe that's not what gets. But like, you know, you don't know. Like maybe like um war breaks out and like and like all this shit. And then all of a sudden everyone everyone's like, fuck it. Let's buy some Bitcoin to complement our gold or whatever. And maybe that pushes Bitcoin to like 500 grand. Like it's just hard to know. Like it's so hard to know the future. Like, you know, I think um I can't remember who said it but it's like it's difficult to predict the future or something or like some shit like that. It's yeah, it's difficult. to Oh, no, it's difficult to make predictions about the future. like, you know, who knows sort of thing. So, yeah.
01:00:19
Speaker
I think Insilico said that once that it's like very easy to predict where price is going to be in like the next 15 minutes or something like that. But like, it's it's way more difficult where it's going be in a week. Yeah, he was so right. I was, you know, it's funny. i was li It's even like about your your own life. Like, you you know what you will eat like today for lunch, but you don't know what you're going to do for for lunch in a week or so from now. It's so true. I was literally thinking about that today. Like, I was literally thinking about that today. And I was thinking like, it's so true because like, if you're staring at the order book, you know, like the next few minutes, you know, the next, like, you know, and then like, once you get past, like, you know, these, like, it's like, it's hard. It's, it gets harder. And that's why like, it sort of ties into like, directionally trading. Like, it's, it's fucking hard. Like, I mean, like if you like, I mean, that I have no doubt that there's people out there can do it and do it successfully, but I'm always like, eh, you know, like, I don't know. I think, um I think, there's easier ways to extract them. And then the other thing as well is like, um I think a lot of the new guys who start trading, they watch like Druckenmiller and read about Soros. Maybe I'm just projecting, but like, that's what happened to me. And I'm like, yeah, like, you know, sell the Euro and all this shit. And then it's like, you know, like, fuck, dude, there's Eid. Like, that's not that's not what it looks like, you know what I mean? So, yeah. Mm-hmm.
01:01:37
Speaker
I feel like especially this last month or last two months or whatever has been so probably destroying most of the direction of people because it's just like so headline driven that basically like the market is just like driven by insane people that don't know what they're doing and also like trying to scam us all of the time. so they're just like flip-flopping every day a hundred times and like there's no one knows what' what's going on in the world anymore basically. So it's like very hard to make like long-term bets. So I will say news trading and headline trading I don't think is a fool's errand.
01:02:08
Speaker
So if you sit there and you think about like, okay, so like, you know, let's do right now. So it's like, okay, what if Trump says that um the war in the Middle East is over? Like he says it's over. Okay. What's going to benefit from that?
01:02:22
Speaker
Probably oil, probably oil. um Spurs, the equities will probably go up. Volatility will probably go down. Okay. That's three. That's all you need. Do you know what I mean? So if you're saying like, I remember in, I think it was 2023,
01:02:36
Speaker
There was like, I think that guy at the Tree of Alpha, you don't hear much from him anymore, but, um you know, he was extremely successful. Like, he was like really, really successful in news trading um and like getting that intel and like acting on it straight away. And like, like if you think about these big institutions, like suppose like the war in the Middle East is over, like, um you know, like for you to get on your, you know, 10 contracts or whatever, Like that's a fucking drop in the bucket. You know what I mean? Like you'll get filled like that. yeah feel that easier If you're like some dude with like a billion, like, you know what I mean? It's like, fuck, like, how am I going to, you know, reposition or whatever? So, um, I don't think news trading is a fool's errand. I would say like, I don't do it, but like, I would like, I would, if someone said like, Oh, I'm thinking about doing this. I'd be like, yeah, I could see that working. Um, there's a, there's a guy from Australia who was pretty successful doing it. Um, Oh, he used to have a course, um,
01:03:28
Speaker
I can't remember his name, but he was like a FX trader, like macro trader or whatever. I can't remember his name, but yeah, he was. So yeah, I don't think I don't think like poorly of those people like i I'm like, oh, news trader. I'm like, I'd be like based, you know, like cool.
01:03:44
Speaker
Especially when you use the InSilico Terminal free news trading tool. yeah well, I'll never forget something that InSilico himself taught me and that's that the free things cost the most.
01:03:56
Speaker
Yeah, that's true. But yeah, is that that terminal was pretty ahead of its was pretty ahead of its time. Like I remember... um Yeah, there just wasn't a lot of things like it when... cat when i Yeah, they real like now there's like so many imitators, you know what I mean? Like there's so many people like... i suppose Everyone is building, Vibe Corning terminal nowadays. Yeah, I feel like as well, it's kind of like... it's like um I feel like as well, it's kind of like... I feel like ever since like... I think that dude started that like breakout trading...
01:04:24
Speaker
um thing and that got acquired and then like um um Kobe got bought out of it like do you know what I mean people like and like people are like humans work and like waves like holy shit we should start a business like do you know what I mean it's like yeah no shit retards like businesses make money like you know like yeah good work you know what I mean so it seems very like in vogue to start like a crypto business or whatever but some of them are really useful like I look at like Loris on Twitter and he started like Loris tools or whatever which seems like Like, that's pretty cool. Like, that's a big gap in the market. Like, there used to be, like, FTX premiums and um super basic.
01:05:00
Speaker
um And that was, you know, that was, like, really, like, that was... I wonder what happened to that guy. Anyways, but yeah, um that was good. And then, yeah, I think Loras has kind of, like, plugged the gap. There used to be another one called, like, Coin Glass or something. And you could see the funding rates there. But, um yeah.
01:05:16
Speaker
Mm-hmm. yeah I think like nowadays, obviously, we like look at other execution stuff or whatever it' its to see a bit about competitors and stuff like that, but there's not that much like relevant stuff. I think like what but about LORIS tools or like something like the terminal, it kind of started because there's like an extra gap for like something like this to be made.
01:05:36
Speaker
like Trip and Ozzy didn't just like start it because it's like they want to like run a business out of this, but because it's like this is needed, like people do actually should use this because like the exchange interfaces were so bad back then. Yeah, I mean, that's that's like that's like its insane it's like the start of any like good
Unique Business Ideas in Crypto
01:05:50
Speaker
business, right? It's like it's not like, hey, like I want to make like the third like replica of like the Insilico terminal. It fills Aaron. But if it's like, hey, like you know there's no place where I can see all the funding rates in crypto. You know what I mean? Like, yeah, okay. like That sounds pretty... like that ah you know That other guy who... um I can't remember what who was called he was called. His profile picture was like a monkey in front of like a bunch of screens. And like he started like a thing on Telegram where you would get news immediately.
01:06:16
Speaker
You know what I mean? Like news strategies, it's like, that's a really cool, you know what I mean? Like these sorts of things are really cool. yeah um Like, yeah, like those are the businesses that are successful. Like if you're just like, going to start like the fucking fourth version of like some on chain, you know what I mean? It's like, yeah, like good luck sort of things. Yeah. I a hundred percent agree.
01:06:34
Speaker
Yeah. Yeah, think this is a good good point to to wrap it up.
Trading, Marriage, and Personal Advice
01:06:40
Speaker
I think you've already like dropped a lot of a lot of wisdom, and a lot of alpha or whatever, but maybe you have some some final words that you partner people with. i would say po ways with i would say like um a lot of people know me for trading and stuff, but I also know a lot about marriage.
01:06:58
Speaker
And... oh I would say like, I just see so many guys pick the wrong wife and like, I just, I just have like, I'm literally thinking about starting a sub stack just for like political and like marriage and relationship advice. Cause like, honestly, some of the things I see are just fucking shocking and not just on Twitter. Like I'm talking about in my personal life. Like I see dudes dating these women and I'm just like, how could this happen? And like, I've got, I've got two sons now and I'm just like, how am I gonna like, you know what I mean? Like, I think, um, I think, um, you know, i think, um, there's a lot like some of you guys are fucked and and like, if you, some of you guys are just fucked.
01:07:54
Speaker
And if you think that's, if you, I get people messaging me for relationship advice sometimes. And if I can save one dude from marrying like some bitch, like I've had a good day because like I like i just like, I like, i like, I look at my life and like, I've been with my wife for like nine years, married for a few. And like, I just think we have such a, like, I just like, thank God. And then I look at other people and they're like, they're like dating these people and like, they're both miserable. Like no one's happy. You know what I mean? Like the the wife's miserable, the husband's miserable. And it's just, I'm just like, God, like,
01:08:29
Speaker
If only they got involved earlier, you know. Making the the dating market more efficient. Well, i think I think it's more so like, I think there's just, i think like guys think like, I don't know, I think there's like this like, um the young guys seem a lot more based than they used to, but I just feel like there's like so much like bad information.
01:08:47
Speaker
um You know what I mean? I'd also say to the young guys, like take up a martial arts, like take up Muay Thai or something. um And like, I'd say as well, actually, this is like the last thing I'll say. Read um Victor Neidehofer's Education of a Speculator.
01:09:03
Speaker
i I read it last year and like it really like changed something in me. like it's it's like I read it the first time in 2017 and I remember reading it and i was like, this guy is fucking crazy. like This guy is like insane. And then i traded for myself for a few years and experienced the highs and lows of that. And then I reread it and I'm like, holy shit, this guy just gets it. And it's like, you know, um you know, if you're successful in trading, like try to make yourself more interesting. You know what I mean? Like so many dudes like successful in trading and that's their whole thing. They're successful in trading. It's like, I mean, it's really important to like commit yourself to the craft, but it's like, you know, like don't be afraid to like take up a martial arts and be good at that. Don't be afraid like, ah like, you know, um take up chess, like, um you know, go like do these other things as well. And like, it'll make you a more well-rounded person a more interesting person so yeah
01:10:00
Speaker
I guess it's good advice.
Historical Context: Prussia and Poland
01:10:01
Speaker
I'm um i'm looking forward what to to to that subsec. I find your takes are quite entertaining. Entertaining. love that. It's like not useful, but like a clown like a clown is entertaining. It's not useful, but it's like it's fun to like look at. you know i mean it's ah it's ah's It's not like I use the advice. I'm just an incel anyway, so it doesn't really like pertain to me, but I find it like potentially interesting. You're my target market. you're we're gonna The first thing you got to do is get to Australia. like I don't know how you guys like what you're like you're like Polish right?
01:10:34
Speaker
I'm German I'm German yeah like I mean what part of Germany? Like Northern Germany is where I'm from is that um is that Prussia?
01:10:46
Speaker
No Prussia doesn't exist anymore Prussia is like what they yeah I know Prussia doesn't fucking exist anymore but it did exist in one stage and there was a part of Germany called Prussia. Are you from? I knew it. All right. Well, don't worry, man. I mean, kind of, but like what was like most of Prussia is now Poland, basically. Really? What was really like Prussian heartland. Yeah. Is that because like Berlin was like, because yeah, that kind of makes sense. And then down South you got like Bavaria.
01:11:15
Speaker
They kind of like basically, Prussia used to be like here and then Poland used to be here and then Russia was next to it and then they just like pushed Poland to the west a bit and like... Yeah, well, I mean, Poland's a fake country. Like without Napoleon, like there would be no Poland. And like, you know, like I think it was Bismarck that united... Was it Bismarck? Yeah, like he united Yeah, it was Bismarck. But yeah, like Poland only exists. Like, I mean, they wouldn't even have a country if it weren't for America.
01:11:41
Speaker
They're like the Israel of Europe. um You know what I mean? So for any Poles listening, it's like, yeah, I mean, I think they've got a good identity now and they're doing good things. But yeah, I mean, i think Napoleon had a mistress who was Polish.
01:11:56
Speaker
She was a Duchy of Warsaw. No, not maybe. Like, yes, it was true. And then she shacked up with him and then she was using her influence to get Poland recognized. I'm pretty sure. Like, so, yeah, that's it. You know, because there was no Poland. It was Prussia, like you said.
Conclusion and Listener Engagement
01:12:12
Speaker
So yeah, anyways, yeah excellent place to leave it, my friend. Thank you all for tuning in. If you have any questions, message me on Twitter.
01:12:19
Speaker
um Good history lesson, yeah. and And there's more to come. so watch this space. Yeah. Thank you for coming on. Thank you everyone for listening. Goodbye. Catch you, brother. Bye-bye.