Transcript
Speaker: Hello and welcome back to the Debatable Discussions podcast for episode two of our second season.
Speaker: Today we're talking about the UK election and we're going to be talking about the rise of reform, who's going to take over the Conservatives and what does the Labour landslide actually mean.
Speaker: I urge you to also go back to watch our first episode of this season where we discuss the
Speaker: before the election, what we think will happen with Ryan Wayne, who is the executive director at the Tony Blair Institute.
Speaker: So, John, let's go first with some basic numbers.
Speaker: So Labour has won a very big majority with 412 seats.
Speaker: The Tories have gotten their worst results since 1830 with 121 seats.
Speaker: The Liberal Democrats have gotten their best ever result with 72 seats.
Speaker: Yeah.
Speaker: But I think the big story here is actually the rise of Reform UK.
Speaker: They've actually only got five seats, but got 14.3% of the vote, which is more than thems.
Speaker: Yes, so, well, I think the outcome of the election was easily predicted by everyone.
Speaker: Everyone knew Labour would go into government with a huge majority after, well, a few years of failure of Tory premiership in Downing Street and also a fairly awful election campaign from Rishi Sunak.
Speaker: We saw that with the D-Day incident where he left early.
Speaker: It just looked awful.
Speaker: Also, what do you think about getting Boris out of the last...
Speaker: the last minute before.
Speaker: Yeah.
Speaker: I mean, it was just a desperate attempt to get votes.
Speaker: And I mean, that's what Rishi needed to do effectively.
Speaker: He needed to sort of go into damage control.
Speaker: And you can see that with how they managed to secure 121 seats.
Speaker: There were predictions that they would secure a lot less.
Speaker: So in many ways, some people may say they did a bit better than perhaps they could have done.
Speaker: But still, they lost 252 seats, which is huge.
Speaker: I mean, that's under 100 away from... That's just a little bit under away from a majority in Parliament.
Speaker: As you said, though, reform, a meteoric rise.
Speaker: You know, they really are the third party in the UK.
Speaker: However, the main issue they had, and I'm sure you'll touch on this in a second, is that they split the right wing votes, which not only cost the Conservative seats.
Speaker: And I think I saw somewhere earlier on that it was in 80 places they cost them seats from splitting the right wing votes.
Speaker: but also cost reform many, many seats.
Speaker: So what do you think about the election results?
Speaker: Yes, I think that was the main issue here.
Speaker: I think this wasn't because if we look at the vote, actually, Labour only got roughly 34% of the vote, which isn't that much.
Speaker: I think looking back in the 2017 election, not the 19 election, the 2017 election, the first time with Jeremy Corbyn, Labour got actually
Speaker: 45, 44% of the votes.
Speaker: So they got less votes now than in 2017 when they lost.
Speaker: And just a bit more than in the 2019 election when they lost spectacularly.
Speaker: I think the big issue here, as you said, the right wing vote was split three times, actually, I would say, depending on the area of split, even between the Tories and the Liberal Democrats, especially in the South of England, we've seen that.
Speaker: And especially in rural England and in the north, it was split between the Tories and Reform.
Speaker: So the Lib Dems, I think, actually had a great campaign.
Speaker: Although, you know, whatever everyone might say about Ed Davy going on the water slides, bungee jumping, you know, falling in the water, whatever.
Speaker: I think they had a great campaign.
Speaker: I think going for specific constituencies worked well for them.
Speaker: And I think this actually does show Reform UK is out to get the Tories.
Speaker: I think we'll talk about this actually.
Speaker: Are they going to merge?
Speaker: Because that's a genuine question people are asking.
Speaker: Are the Tories going to merge with Reform?
Speaker: What's going to happen?
Speaker: Oh, yes.
Speaker: I'll go to that in a second.
Speaker: But I thought I'd firstly touch on the Lib Dems because, as you said, they really did target this area of southern England.
Speaker: So you can see that in how they've won seats like Guildford, Kingston, Richmond.
Speaker: Epsom.
Speaker: Eastern, Walton, Epsom, Newell.
Speaker: And, well, it was a targeted effort for this area.
Speaker: I'm not sure if I'd call them right wing because, in my opinion, they're sort of more of just a sort of a centrist party.
Speaker: Yes.
Speaker: I mean, personally, I did think...
Speaker: I did think David Davy was sort of doing more fun and games than electoral campaigning.
Speaker: But, you know, clearly people disagree with me.
Speaker: For reform, though, as you said, we have this sort of interesting situation with the possibility of a sort of, you hear the idea of a reverse takeover being said quite a lot that Farage wants to do.
Speaker: And it's effectively that Farage knows how much he's damaged the Tori's.
Speaker: He knows that he has lost them lots and lots of seats.
Speaker: And he knows that he's, you know, he's got a lot of power for sort of amongst right wing voters in the UK.
Speaker: So I think if, and I know that for a fact, well not for a fact, but I can imagine that he's going to cause us a chaos in Parliament with his five quite charismatic MPs.
Speaker: And so I think in the future, and definitely by 2029, the idea of a reform, of reform and Tories merging together to sort of save votes could become a very real possibility.
Speaker: And I do even think that
Speaker: potentially by 2029 or after that, Farage could become the leader of the opposition and the leader of the Conservatives.
Speaker: What do you think about it?
Speaker: Yeah, I think that's definitely one possibility that's quite worrying, I would say.
Speaker: But there's also another possibility which I want to talk about, which is Boris Johnson coming back.
Speaker: So we've seen Rishi Sunak bring Boris back the last second.
Speaker: He was on the front page of every newspaper until the election.
Speaker: And what I think Boris is going to do is going to say, you got rid of me and look what happened.
Speaker: I brought the biggest win in the history of the party and look what happened now.
Speaker: So there's an opportunity, I think, here for Boris and for Nigel Farage.
Speaker: to do another deal like they did in 2019 when Farage did not run and for them to come back together in the opposition.
Speaker: Yeah.
Speaker: I mean, I can see that as in
Speaker: Boris, I don't know if Boris would exactly just want to sort of leave politics straight away.
Speaker: I think part of him does definitely like it and part of him perhaps will still want to be involved.
Speaker: I think he, am I right in saying that he did lose his seat though in Parliament?
Speaker: He did not run.
Speaker: He got... He did not, he didn't run.
Speaker: No, he lost his seat last year when he resigned and everything.
Speaker: When he resigned?
Speaker: Oh, of course.
Speaker: Mistrust lost his seat this time.
Speaker: But the Tories lost the seat Boris was in.
Speaker: What was it?
Speaker: South Ruslip.
Speaker: Yeah.
Speaker: And Oxbridge.
Speaker: So it will be a lot harder for Boris to sort of get back into the Conservative Party not being an MP.
Speaker: However...
Speaker: There is something about politics that I think does attract Boris.
Speaker: As you could see when he was mayor of London, he enjoys all the attention, the deal-making, all the things like that.
Speaker: So I definitely can see him becoming involved.
Speaker: However, I don't know how major a part he will have to play because if you think about it...
Speaker: People were sort of hating Boris Johnson not that long ago in about 2022 after we found out about the COVID parties, his lying.
Speaker: So perhaps if the general population of the United Kingdom, perhaps if they forgive him, I don't know if they would or why they would, but perhaps in the future, Boris Johnson could have a part to play.
Speaker: And talking about Farage, first we need to mention that George Galloway
Speaker: who's the leader of the Workers' Party, is out of Parliament, thank God.
Speaker: However, Nigel Farage is in instead.
Speaker: So the far right, I think first past the post, actually, I think this is the first time it's actually done any good, in my opinion.
Speaker: This is the first time I can look at it and say, you know what, thankfully first past the post exists because otherwise Reform UK would have roughly 100 MPs
Speaker: Which, you know, imagine what Farage is going to do at five.
Speaker: I think Parliament would have literally been...
Speaker: I don't know, it wouldn't work.
Speaker: It would just stop.
Speaker: Yeah, it'd be so much different.
Speaker: And I think definitely proportional representation, though, if that was the system in the UK, the Tories and Reform would have definitely had to make a coalition.
Speaker: And by doing that, they would have had a very good chance of... I'd imagine they could still be in power.
Speaker: They would have 39%, I think.
Speaker: Because the Tories are 24% and Reform are 14%, so they would have 38% of the vote.
Speaker: So you're higher than Labour.
Speaker: But if they do a coalition, so a Lib Dem Tory reform coalition would have been a possibility.
Speaker: Yeah.
Speaker: Because I don't see reform working with Labour.
Speaker: Yeah.
Speaker: No, there's polar opposites in many ways.
Speaker: So I think that would have been the only way.
Speaker: Also, independence this year, worth mentioning, I'd say.
Speaker: Yeah, was it five, am I right?
Speaker: I think it's seven, actually.
Speaker: Or seven, yeah.
Speaker: There were quite a few, but more than sort of usual, I think.
Speaker: I mean, well, one independent was lost.
Speaker: George Galloway lost Rochdale.
Speaker: In fairness, though, I would always say that
Speaker: he never sort of, he did win the seat, but he was never supposed to win the seat.
Speaker: It was just because of the huge issue of Labour having to withdraw their candidate there.
Speaker: So he did manage to be the MP of Rochdale for a short amount of time.
Speaker: But Jeremy Corbyn, notably, he won Islington South.
Speaker: Yeah.
Speaker: He's another sort of perhaps more extreme figure that's come back into politics, even though he has been removed from the Labour Party.
Speaker: Who else was... Do you know anyone else?
Speaker: Any other big names?
Speaker: I don't think there's any other big names.
Speaker: I think just local people, really.
Speaker: Jeremy Corbyn is definitely the big story here.
Speaker: Coming back after getting banished by Keir Starmer.
Speaker: I think looking at the change in votes, so Labour actually, what would you say their change in votes was, if you had to guess, from the last election when they got spectacularly smashed by Boris?
Speaker: I don't know, because I actually don't know.
Speaker: So I do know how many of the Tories lost.
Speaker: I would guess...
Speaker: is it perhaps a gain of... Percent.
Speaker: Percent-wise.
Speaker: Around 300.
Speaker: Percent-wise.
Speaker: Oh, percent-wise.
Speaker: In the vote share.
Speaker: Not in the seats, in the vote share.
Speaker: In the vote share, 40%?
Speaker: 2%.
Speaker: 2%.
Speaker: Oh, wow.
Speaker: That's very far off there.
Speaker: The Tories lost 20%.
Speaker: Okay.
Speaker: Which is, I think this is actually what the big stat is.
Speaker: I think the vote share...
Speaker: Because the seats were... It was always predicted that Labour was going to have a supermajority because of the first-party vote system.
Speaker: There was nothing anyone could do about that.
Speaker: But the big story here is the vote share.
Speaker: In that Reform UK effectively... Because those are... Can we all assume those are Tory voters?
Speaker: Would you say that's fair?
Speaker: Yeah, they're former Tory voters.
Speaker: So if Reform UK did not exist...
Speaker: the Tories would have had a higher vote share.
Speaker: Yeah, yeah.
Speaker: I mean, we don't fully know that because a lot of people didn't go to vote due to them saying, well, Labour's going to win anyway.
Speaker: There's no point in me going.
Speaker: And also perhaps some, you know, would have been reformed voters could have perhaps voted for sort of perhaps the Lib Dems, but less, but mainly Tories, as you said, yeah.
Speaker: And some, a lot wouldn't have just voted.
Speaker: The SNP also lost.
Speaker: Over 20 seats.
Speaker: That was inevitable, though, after the many scandals that have surrounded the S&P recently.
Speaker: I mean, inevitable, because they just clearly can't run as a leading party in Scotland, as the leading party.
Speaker: And I think the story here is there is also the Greens.
Speaker: I think we also need to mention the Green Party, who got four seats, but more notably got 7% of the Reds.
Speaker: which 70% of the votes is 2 million votes.
Speaker: They've got 2 million votes.
Speaker: I think this votes for the future that reform and the Green Party will become two forces in British politics, I would say.
Speaker: I mean, I do think they'll both become two forces, but I think there is a slight sort of...
Speaker: disillusionment sort of is when you see it, when you see that reform got only one more seat than the Greens, you presume that they are similar sized parties.
Speaker: However, as you said, when you look at that percentage of the vote share, there is quite a large difference really between the reform and the Greens.
Speaker: It's double.
Speaker: It's double, yeah.
Speaker: So I think, yes, Greens will have a bit more of a part to play as sort of fears and concerns around climate change increase, but
Speaker: there'll still be a small inexperienced party in the future, regardless of how well they do.
Speaker: Yes, but I think definitely Nigel Farage's strategy, let's discuss that for a bit.
Speaker: What did you think of his campaign?
Speaker: I mean, I think it's sort of quite classic Nigel Farage, in fairness.
Speaker: He does these big speeches, almost rallies, literally rallies in some places, and
Speaker: And he uses his sort of greatest weapon, which is his ability to speak, to debate and to sort of convince the voters.
Speaker: And he offered a message.
Speaker: I think the key thing about him is that he offered the right wing an option, an option.
Speaker: He said the Tories have failed in government.
Speaker: Why would you reelect them and vote for them?
Speaker: But me, on the other hand, all I want to do is literally reform the UK.
Speaker: And I'm offering you a different, I'm offering a different right wing party that you can vote for.
Speaker: And that was attractive for many right wing voters.
Speaker: It was simply just frustrated and annoyed at the Tory failure.
Speaker: I mean, what do you think?
Speaker: Yeah, I think, I think it worked.
Speaker: I mean, looking at the votes, it definitely worked.
Speaker: And in how many weeks, four weeks, five weeks of campaigning, you got four million votes.
Speaker: I think that's spectacular.
Speaker: I think also the stunts.
Speaker: Him and the milkshake getting thrown at him.
Speaker: Him going in a tank in Clacton.
Speaker: I don't know if you've seen that.
Speaker: Have you seen that?
Speaker: No, I've not seen that.
Speaker: The day before the election, he was in a tank giving a speech out of a tank in Clacton.
Speaker: And him going to the voting section was... If you look at Rishi Sunak and Kirsten with their wife going to their
Speaker: with their wives going to the voting session.
Speaker: Then you look at Nigel Farage almost marching by himself.
Speaker: But it definitely worked.
Speaker: And he uses this populism, I could say, which is attractive in our situation because the Tories have not been a success.
Speaker: And all those slogans he uses, like, I want to reform Britain.
Speaker: That's a strong word, reform.
Speaker: Him promising he's going to get rid of the waiting list in a year.
Speaker: And also, we have to mention stopping the boats, him going at Dover and filming himself.
Speaker: I think those are all, although I don't agree with them, I think you can't deny that he is a great public speaker.
Speaker: And he does manage to get some percentage of the population very quickly on his side because he seems like an honest guy who just wants to improve the country.
Speaker: Yes, I mean, I totally agree with you there.
Speaker: He is really, in my opinion, of all of the politicians or politically people working in politics in the UK, he is definitely the best orator, in my opinion, and also the far best at gaining publicity.
Speaker: With all these stunts he does, with all the incidents of the milkshakes, he only gains more and more publicity, which I can guarantee that he just loves.
Speaker: He can use this to further push his message.
Speaker: Yes, I agree.
Speaker: I think we can't deny that he's great at his job.
Speaker: After all, he did deliver Brexit somehow.
Speaker: But now let's talk a bit about the future of the Tories.
Speaker: So there's a lot of debate.
Speaker: Richard Sunak has announced that he's going to resign as Tory party leader, which was expected, frankly.
Speaker: So who are the candidates and who do you think is going to take over?
Speaker: Well, so...
Speaker: Yes, if Rishi does resign, which is very, very likely, as Prime Minister, as Head of Leader of the Opposition, there are a few possible candidates.
Speaker: So firstly, you have Kemi Bezenok.
Speaker: That is a figure who has been involved in running for Tory leadership in the past couple of years.
Speaker: She ran against Rishi and Liz Truss.
Speaker: You've also got Suella Braverman, quite a sort of famous, perhaps one of the most famous Tories in Russia's cabinet.
Speaker: She was Home Secretary, known for quite extremist views on many issues.
Speaker: And you've also got James Cleverley, who was Home Secretary, was Foreign Secretary, and is seen by many as quite sensible, sort of well-educated voice.
Speaker: One sort of honourable name to mention was Penny Mordaunt.
Speaker: Many believe she would be it.
Speaker: Well, actually, after the coronation, when she walked down the aisle holding the sword, public opinion of her was very positive.
Speaker: People very much liked her.
Speaker: However, she did lose her seat in Hampshire, so she can no longer be a viable option.
Speaker: What do you think?
Speaker: Yeah, I think definitely the Tories are going to have to make a decision now, which is whether they should go to the more right side of the party with Svella Bratham and then perhaps have an alliance with Nigel Farage, which could end either way.
Speaker: Nellie Nigel Farage.
Speaker: We've said he's very skilled, so he could take up being the leader of the party in a couple of years.
Speaker: Or they could stay where they are, move a bit more to the centre,
Speaker: with a sensible candidate.
Speaker: I don't know what they'll do.
Speaker: I think it's definitely a very important decision to make, but I would say going to the right, although it seems a viable option now, I do think it will damage them in the long run.
Speaker: What do you think?
Speaker: Yeah, I agree with you.
Speaker: I mean, it's really hard to have sort of any idea about what will happen.
Speaker: This is a really exciting time in British politics.
Speaker: You've seen this with this quite momentous election.
Speaker: And I think the next leader of the opposition will be quite exciting, in fairness.
Speaker: It'll be quite an exciting run up.
Speaker: to the elections and for the candidate selection process for that leader of the opposition.
Speaker: But the key thing is that the Conservatives need to get someone who literally needs to be excellent.
Speaker: Yes.
Speaker: Because they have hit this all-time low.
Speaker: I mean, did you mention, was it since 1830 it was their lowest?
Speaker: They were since 1830, which is wild.
Speaker: Yeah, I mean, that is wild.
Speaker: So they really need to get a very, very good leader to sort of help them dig out of this hole which they're in, which is very, very deep.
Speaker: And perhaps that will be Nigel Farage.
Speaker: You never know, but I think Farage will definitely have his eyes on being on sort of a takeover of the Conservative Party, because that could lead to him being leader of the opposition.
Speaker: And then Prime Minister, which in his eyes is a sort of ultimate goal in life in many ways.
Speaker: I think nothing would probably make him happy.
Speaker: Could you imagine that?
Speaker: Yeah, it would be crazy, you know, to think that the man who was on I'm Celebrity just over a year ago, perhaps, will, you know, go on to be Prime Minister.
Speaker: But I think for many people, many people like him now, though.
Speaker: I think he was probably more unpopular in the past.
Speaker: Yeah.
Speaker: When he was seen as, I think oddly he was seen as more extremist in the past, but more and more people are liking him.
Speaker: And if he continues at the trajectory he's going,
Speaker: then it could be very possible that he is.
Speaker: But I think Kia and Labour are quite safe for the time being anyway.
Speaker: I think, yeah, I think they're probably going to win the next election and then maybe even a third, which, you know, but with the majority they have now, they will probably win the next one.
Speaker: Although, again, looking at the vote share, their vote share is quite bad if we're being just, you know, looking at the numbers.
Speaker: Last time when they lost a very big majority,
Speaker: they only increased by a point and a half in vote check.
Speaker: I mean... Oh, wow.
Speaker: Yeah.
Speaker: So that's all for today as we discuss the UK election.
Speaker: And our next episodes will be on the French election.
Speaker: What happened in the French election with the genius that Emmanuel Macron is.
Speaker: And we will also do a quick episode on the US election discussing the debate, the shocking debate, I might add.
Speaker: Yeah.
Speaker: Oh, well, so thank you everyone for listening and I hope you tune in.
Speaker: Also, please do follow us.
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