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EP 81 - A Query About Chaos Theory
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At times we worry about the unpredictable impacts our actions may or may have. What if our actions are like the Butterfly Effect: A small thing we do in one place and time having far-reaching effects in another. Are our worries warranted? What perspectives might help us worry less?
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Transcript
Introduction to 'Chris Deals With It' and Originality
00:00:08
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On Chris deals with it, I talk about the frameworks and methods I use to clear personal, creative, and professional roadblocks. My goal is to help others bridge the gaps between where they're at now and what they want to achieve.
00:00:20
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If you're new to the show, I'm an engineer, writer, parent, game designer, leader, and reader who leverages that experience to develop creative solutions to problems. First, an AI statement, that all elements of this episode are products of the author, Chris Kreuter, and made without the use of any AI tools.
Exploration of Chaos Theory
00:00:39
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Welcome to episode 81 of Chris Deals With It, a query about chaos theory. At times we worry about the unpredictable impacts our actions may or may not have. What if our actions are like the butterfly effect?
00:00:52
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A small thing we do in one place and time having far-reaching effects in another. Are our worries warranted? And what perspectives might help us worry less? The butterfly effect is an example used to explain chaos theory.
00:01:06
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Chaos theory attempts to describe systems where small initial changes occur which then have a wide range of potentially large, unexpected outcomes. Chaos theory, and in its very name, implies unpredictability.
00:01:18
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It's an attempt to describe seemingly random results. It's assuming that in reality there is an underlying order to the complex system. Like many kids who came of age during the 1990s, I was introduced to this concept in the 1993 movie Jurassic Park from the novel written by Michael Crichton.
00:01:35
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Jeff Goldblum's character, Ian Malcolm, lays it out with examples of water droplets moving across a hand, and there was his iconic line, life finds a way, being used to explain the unpredictable dangers in the science being used.
Impact of Small Actions
00:01:50
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It's challenging to look outward on such a large scale, or to predict the long-term impacts of your projects, art, mission, jobs. I don't think we should ever underestimate the importance and potential of all the incalculable small decisions and actions that we make.
00:02:05
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Something as simple as a smile, a shrug, or stoic silence in the right moment might set things in motion for outsized, downstream effects that could change the universe. Or not.
00:02:16
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You probably won't ever be aware of most of those effects anyway. Only with the processing capability and intelligence of something godlike could anyone claim any sense of design anyway.
Role of Technology in Chaos
00:02:28
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As our species discovers more through scientific inquiry and the application of technology, we're better able to grasp the workings of ever-larger systems. For example, increases in computing power, sensors, and communications technology has given us the ability to grasp the potential results of small variations in the many inputs to these systems, like weather prediction, financial system modeling, and political movements.
00:02:54
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There's a lot to be gained from these kinds of analyses, but it requires money, technology, coordination, and dedicated focus. So given all that, here are eight ways where we can make these insights actionable.
00:03:06
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One, don't underestimate the potential impact of small gestures and actions. Often it's not just the small action itself, it's how it combines with many of the other things preceding a moment that occur afterwards or happen at the same time as the moment.
00:03:21
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Your actions live in a world with many others. Who could predict the impact? Yet, even though changes usually come in drips, your action is part of the bucket being filled, and it might end up being big enough to be the key drop that tips the bucket.
Personal Agency and the Butterfly Effect
00:03:35
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Two, are you blaming butterflies? Is the world happening to you, are you happening within the world? Our tools of analysis continuously improve, but for all their help, we can't avoid our involvement in an infinite number of chaotic systems.
00:03:51
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That's just life. Many Buddhists believe in the theory that all of us are just aspects of a singular universe expressing itself. mean Ultimately, at some level, everything can be described in terms of a chaotic system.
00:04:04
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You may need to zoom far out to the level of a civilization or a planet, or zoom far in. Electrons zipping around nuclei are as difficult to predict as global weather patterns. We're just now starting to harness the powers behind technologies like quantum entanglement, large language models, and CRISPR gene editing.
00:04:23
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Who can predict where these technologies will take our society and our understanding of even larger scale systems?
Art, Work, and Unpredictability
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Number three, your work or art will likely have unintended impacts that are mostly out of your control.
00:04:36
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All of ours, stories, games, courses, art, algorithms, and more, are all attempts to mimic, distill, approximate, and abstract these complex systems. These abstractions are useful frameworks for evaluation, but they will always have flaws since it's impossible to capture a chaotic system perfectly.
00:04:55
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I mean, consider the percentage of time invested versus the degree of potential impact. And don't let this put you in a state of analysis paralysis where you avoid making a decision because of overthinking or over-researching.
00:05:07
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Often this is driven by a fear of making mistakes or being overwhelmed by the options or a lack of perceived agency. Or it can also occur due to a mental health condition like anxiety, ADHD, or depression.
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But sometimes making a decision, even if it ends up being a wrong one, is better than no decision at all. All that leads to learning, all can lead to unexpected results, both positive and negative.
Skepticism Towards Experts and AI
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4. Don't have blind trust in self-proclaimed experts or AI. Both are products of the information sets that informed them, which are inherently limited in different ways.
00:05:44
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Both are capable of yielding unpredictable and inaccurate results. They're also capable of predictable and accurate results too. Now, are there ways you can better qualify the information that you're getting from them?
00:05:55
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you know You can encompass larger data sets to data relevant to you or your company. For example, locating data keys or connection points between your internal data with publicly available data sets.
00:06:07
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This can yield greater insights and greater predictability into the impacts of your potential actions. Number five, your plans, hopes, and efforts will likely get altered by outside and unpredictable forces.
Adaptability and Flexibility
00:06:20
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Although the metrics of our work, art, or products may not achieve our hopes and expectations for them, we may not be viewing the right metrics. The more random and chaotic the inputs to a system, the more unexpected the results, so you need to be adaptable.
00:06:34
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How much chaos are you accounting for? How much can you account for it at all? you know Back to that butterfly example, how much are you fluttering your wings? Are the flaps random or with purpose?
00:06:46
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Are you flapping more than the environment or situation requires? You're allowed to just be the butterfly, living within its means, no concern for what is out of its control, tornadoes in faraway places, for example, and out of its ability to comprehend.
00:07:00
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You can embrace that flow state where self-evaluation and concerns for the future impacts fall away and life is lived most fully and in the moment. And understand the impacts, both positive and negative, that your actions have if you push on an unpredictable system.
00:07:15
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mean, take children, for example. You can't predict when a child is going to level up in a skill, activity, or sport. You know pushing them too hard or pressuring an organization to level them up too fast increases the unpredictability of the results.
00:07:29
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Six, we should remain open to unexpected influences that can change our perspective and pivot us in the direction, creation, and execution of our work. So consider the effects of your organization's structure.
00:07:43
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If it's too tight and regimented, it restricts the ability of any individual to make decisions. This results in them having less agency and therefore less incentive to pivot or enhance the company's mission.
00:07:54
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That said, complex systems tend to be more resilient. They're not beholden to the whims of small changes or elements, even if it is affected by combinations of them. Your company will likely survive any one decision.
00:08:07
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It'll likely survive if you leave. How central are you to that system? That is your locus of control. Seven, small, seemingly innocuous lapses in attention and judgment can result in devastating impacts on others.
Anecdote of Unintended Impact
00:08:22
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An impatient or anxiety-driven tendency could cause us to take an action that brings our attention to a more pressing reality. For example, reading a text message while driving a vehicle may seem innocuous or might just be driven by anxiety or impatience.
00:08:36
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That distraction from reality brings the risk of catastrophic impacts. you know and This can also work in positive ways. There's a great example of two boys on a beach in Greece. They're playing soccer and an errant kick sends the ball into the Mediterranean Sea.
00:08:51
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The ball is gone and it drifts on the sea for days and travels over 80 miles where a tourist gets swept out to sea by a strong current while vacationing at this other beach.
00:09:01
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He spots the soccer ball and clings to it, waiting 18 hours until rescuers find him. Amazingly, the cause and effect get linked because of the family of the boys recognizes the ball when News of the Rescue hits their TV a week after they lost it.
Gratitude and Encouragement
00:09:17
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And eight, our entire existence exists as a result of eons of interactions and happenstances. I mean, how lucky are we to have a chance to play a part in this miracle of existence?
00:09:28
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I mean, this is a challenging mentality to maintain consistently, but it can help us maintain perspective, our sense of humility, of humanity, and feelings of gratefulness for where we are. so I'm going to close out today's episode with a quote from the author Sylvester McNutt III, which kind of cuts right to the point of taking action.
00:09:47
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Overthinking is the biggest waste of human energy. Trust yourself, make a decision, and gain more experience. There's no such thing as perfect. You cannot think your way into perfection, so just take action.
00:09:58
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And with that, have a great day.
Conclusion and Call to Action
00:10:09
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If you feel that Chris dealt with it, I'd appreciate your support of the show by sharing it with someone who might benefit. Ratings on your favorite podcast player are also helpful in growing the audience. Visit chriscreuter.com for free downloadable PDFs with notes and resources from today's episode.
00:10:24
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Sign up for the CDWI mailing list or to send in your problems or requests for future shows. That's chriscreuter.com or use the link in the show notes.