Transcript
Eric Rubin: Hey and welcome to Better Betting! My name is Eric Rubin, and I'm here with my partner, the King of Timonium, Gary Quill. GQ. How be you?
G Q: It's Breeders' Cup week. How else should we feel? um Good. I guess. Breeders' Cup. friday and saturday but uh Maryland Jockey Club came calling earlier this week.
G Q: And it seems that they need... um on -air racing analyst for this weekend. Laurel typically only runs Friday, Saturday, Sunday, but... they guess guess they have an extra day to make up so they uh Our racing... this Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
G Q: And so it's not going to be my debut as on -air analyst because... Probably about... maybe 10 years ago or so.
G Q: I got a call one cold February afternoon. And they must have been desperate when they called me. so Um...
Eric Rubin: Heh.
G Q: Yeah, it it will. Be my return to the airwaves at Laurel, even though I'll... The king of Timonium. Um, Yes, they've come calling so I'm ah I'm actually excited to do it. A lot of lot of work ahead of me, which...
G Q: means um my Breeders' Cup handicapping suffered. so That should be good news because I think we'll probably be under an hour because Eric will... um Carry me through this late pick five at Keeneland.
G Q: Yes? Eric?
Eric Rubin: We'll see if you want to get started. But congrats on the series. Congratulations on. the gig if you will you do the harmonium now you bring it to a bigger track i'm sure you'll do great
G Q: Thanks.
Eric Rubin: So good luck.
G Q: Look out, Andy Serling.
Eric Rubin: to watching. Yes, New York News.
G Q: ah
Eric Rubin: Germanium first. Yeah, moral. And here we come, New York.
G Q: Okay. So anything else? so you um Thanks a lot. yeah ah Ed and yourself, ah you drove down. from New York to hit Maryland Million Day card. um We had fun.
G Q: if If not, anything else? What the...
Eric Rubin: I think I was up about 30 grand on the year going down. Now I'm up about 20 grand. but Other than that, um it was a fun weekend. It really was. just I don't know why I can't win at Laurel.
Eric Rubin: Maybe I'll listen to you now on on the show and just go with your horses.
G Q: Yes. Yikes. ah
Eric Rubin: Yeah.
G Q: and you And you stayed at the ah Hotel Aerosmith? uh again Yes.
Eric Rubin: I did, yes, the estate. It was very nice. But on a serious note, I came. So close. What was the word? I think I was with you on Friday, right? Oh, I'm sorry. Saturday, I shouldn't say. Uh -oh. But anyway.
Eric Rubin: I know I was a nose out of four grand. I can't remember the name of the horse. or the race oh is that one horse and belmont who almost wired the field and then Frasier caught him and wired.
G Q: but ah guy Got caught at the wire.
Eric Rubin: Because everyone was bad -mouthing Frasu, so of course, not me, but of course I gotta pay for it.
G Q: but but
Eric Rubin: So he, uh... He caught him at the wire and then... If stars and stripes wins, I get another thousand or two also. And he apparently I didn't even see that race. but apparently he got caught. in horrible fashion as well so i was close to making about five grand and instead i gave away a lot of money but We're going to get it back. We got two more months in the year to get it back. So why not start it with the Raiders Cup? I have some.
Eric Rubin: I don't know if they're good, but I have fairly strong opinions. A lot of times we do these races and I have. not the greatest opinion or strongest opinion. and I just kind of, you know, analyze the race and all. But this time I actually like some horses. I don't like some horses, so.
Eric Rubin: We'll see if it works out. But anyway.
G Q: Awesome.
Eric Rubin: And you can also, or we can get started.
G Q: now let's get started uh cut to the chase uh it's Christmas weekend for all handicappers because it's Breeders' Cup weekend. And we're heading to Saturday, the late pick five at Keeneland.
G Q: which are the last five Breeders' Cup races, races 8 through 12. First leg. Race 8 is the Breeders' Cup Sci Games. uh sprint Six furlongs for three -year -olds and upward.
G Q: A field of 13 are going, or scheduled to go postward. 12 others are... Ready to take a crack at the number 13 horse, Englishman, who's the 4 -5 morning line favorite. so Should we just single Englishman and move on, or you say otherwise, Eric?
Eric Rubin: ah If you want to lose your money, yeah, sure, go ahead.
G Q: Woo!
Eric Rubin: Yeah, we're going to start off right away trying to be the favorite here. There's a couple of hoards I like here, two specifically. One a short price, one a long price. So I'll start with the long price because actually I'm going to put them on top, if you will, and play around with this horse.
Eric Rubin: And that is the 12, whose name I always mispronounce, Strawdale. i We were talking about Dr. Kapoor, who I liked. Was it two weeks ago, maybe?
G Q: Yep. Yeah.
Eric Rubin: And he won, by the way.
G Q: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: I don't remember the odds. It might not have been much, but I love Dr. Paul. Oh, no, he was big price, actually.
G Q: He was, it yes.
Eric Rubin: duck Yeah, 15 and 1, something 21.
G Q: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: So I take that back. I mentioned that Dr. Ford ran against his horse, and I mispronounced his horse's name. And I think it's Strawdale, but I'm not sure. Anyway, I do like the 12 here for a few reasons. First of all, I think there's a a ton of pace.
Eric Rubin: I mean, you can go through the field But the 1, the 5, the 2 and 3, the 6 in Englishman, the 13. To name a few, that's at least six horses who basically love the lead or very close to it and will push the pace. so I think Strondell would get ah a good setup. And if you look at the speed figures, they look maybe a little slow. but Two things to combat that. First of all,
Eric Rubin: He's a three year old. So he could be improving, which I like to think he is. And I just, I thought he ran a really good race last time and he's just an improving horse. The the race against um Englishman two back.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, he he didn't really put up much of a fight that day. But... He's better than that. I mean look he came back around to 73 on the turf after that And then he improved to a 92. So I just think he's an improving horse. I was impressed with his race last time.
Eric Rubin: ah There was a really fast pace last time. I thought he made, I don't call it an early move, but he he made a quick move into it. and i I just thought it it's even better than it looks at, right? So for me, straw nail, I really like, I know it's a tall order. Maybe, maybe it's. pushing a little bit to expect them to win.
Eric Rubin: But I like the 12 -year -old. I'm going to play around with him. And then the 11 -2 Elvis. The only question for me is the layoff, but this is a horse we ran a monster race on. kentucky downs Kentucky Derby Day way back in May.
Eric Rubin: hasn't raised since, but Yeah, that was a... ah It seems like a fast pace, but I don't think it was like a crazy, crazy fast pace. It was fast, though, but nothing crazy. Crazy Mason got up for third.
Eric Rubin: But he made kind of an early wide move anyway. Not early, but a wide move earlier than the Crazy Mason. ah But I thought he ran really well that day. and He even has his own verb now, right? To be T .O. Elvis means to get C .A .W .ed, basically. He was something like, what, 14 -1? I'm probably messing it up, but about 14 -1 going into the game. ends up five to one is the uh They hit the half. mile pole so that kind of sucked for people who bet him but I think he's going to get a great setup here. i think he's
Eric Rubin: As talented, or I don't want to say more talented, but he's as talented as Englishman, but he gets a better setup here. So I like the 11. See you all in the next one. the 12 stride now and nothing against. englishman i guess i'm taking things against him he's obviously run some amazing races and He's put up big figures and he's immensely talented. Four for five. His only loss was when he got.
Eric Rubin: Dueled real hard. at Churchill going a mile. But, I mean, he walked down the lead last time and won easily. he's going to face pressure. Now you got to take really short odds. Can he rate off the pace?
Eric Rubin: And if he goes... He probably is fast enough to get the lead, but he's going to have to go so fast that I don't think he's going to last necessarily. so uh for me I'm going to try and beat Englishman, and I'm mostly going to go 11 -12. The other two words I have a little interest in is, or are, is, are, I think are.
Eric Rubin: Horses are, yes. ah The nine Nakatomi. who again looks slow on paper kind of like strazell maybe doesn't have the upside but he really won He ran really well last time, albeit in the grade two at Keeneland. He looked like he wasn't going to get off it.
Eric Rubin: top of the stretch and he closed really well he also is going to get a good setup here So I think he has a shot here and maybe he can. fire one of his better races, getting a great setup here. And him, the four horse.
Eric Rubin: who has been racing up at Saratoga, and we covered the show the other day, or a couple weeks ago, I guess it was a month ago already, or more, almost two months now. We covered that show with... him and t craft and senior officer that was the day that Was it Englishman Scratch from that race or someone scratched from that race?
Eric Rubin: Maybe Crew Velocity Scratch? I can't remember.
G Q: i think it was crude velocity
Eric Rubin: ah once I don't know.
G Q: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: The people out there probably know and think I'm an idiot for not remembering. And that's fine. But anyway, it changed the complexion of the race. Oh, no. You know who it was? I do remember. It was neither. new Think New Jersey sprinter.
G Q: oh oh Um... Pocomdano.
Eric Rubin: Yes, he was the one who scratched and we were trying to beat him, I think. But anyway, him ran pretty well that day. um You know, I don't think the race favored like closers or. uh speed balls but you know he held pretty well he did stalk the 9 -5 shot who faded to fifth so Oh, no, Fabian finished fifth. So I thought him ran a good race and has the ability to come off the pace here, especially shortening up. So if you sense what I'm doing, I'm basically betting the foreclosures here because pretty much everyone else's speed.
Eric Rubin: But it's not just at the peace setup. Other than Englishman, I don't really care for too many of the speed horses. I think they're better looking than they are on paper, um meaning I don't think they're as good as they look on paper.
Eric Rubin: I think they're weaker than that. And and the closers, I think, might be a little better than they look for various reasons. so That's what I'm doing here. As far as betting the raise, I'm going to box those four horses. The four.
Eric Rubin: The 9. the 11 and the 12 because I'm not using an Englishman there. I'm also going to probably met extra with the 11 with those horses and the 12 with those horses and extra 11, 12.
Eric Rubin: So whether it's exactives or triples, I'll have those four horses. With Strahdale, maybe a 20 -to -1. I'll use Englishman also in an exact and maybe some tries. Because obviously, Englishman can win and I don't... necessarily want to miss with a 21 shot. Usually if you don't like a favorite, I would toss him. Like if I was just King T .O. Elvis, I would just toss Englishman. But with a 20 -to -1 shot, I'll throw him in a little bit with my horse there.
Eric Rubin: I'll probably bet Stradale will win. Even though I think T .O. Elvis is going to win the race, T .O. Elvis is going to be 72. Stradale is going to be... 20 to 1 so i'll take the bigger price as far as the pick 5 goes it really depends on the other legs here and that's why it's hard talking about a pick 5 especially at the beginning of the sequence But...
Eric Rubin: For the most part, My main pick five, I want the 11 and 12. I really think T .O. Elvis is the one long shot that I want. Could I add the four nine? Absolutely. And I'm probably not going to have that spread of your ticket. There's only one race I'm really spreading a lot in the sequence. So maybe I'll add the four him and the nine Nakatomi. Maybe not.
Eric Rubin: And I probably wouldn't use Englishman because I'm trying to beat Englishman. The only way I would do that is if I was singling or had a race where I was betting all pretty much double digits or eight to one higher. And if that's the case, Then I would throw in Englishman.
Eric Rubin: I'm not really doing that, I don't think, so I'm probably not going to use Englishman as my... quote, fifth choice here. And again, English meant to me is... either maybe second most likely to win the race next to two Elvis, but.
Eric Rubin: For the price, I'm just taking this one again. So if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. And I can always play that pick four.
G Q: Cool.
Eric Rubin: All right, that was it.
G Q: Yeah, it was funny. The yeah only horse I was going to... ask you about was nakatomi and then you mention them so no need to do that All right, good enough. ah Leg two of the late pick five on Breeders' Cup Saturday at Keeneland is race nine.
G Q: but One mile. Breeders' Cup mile for three -year -olds in... upward 15 were entered. A max of 14 could have gone postward.
G Q: We already have a scratch announced. We're recording this on Wednesday afternoon, a scratch of the six horse. Zulu Kingdom, which means the first A .E., the 15, Veena Arana.
G Q: Gets in. ah Telescopic.
Eric Rubin: No, he's scratched too if you don't run
G Q: Oh, oh, I'm sorry.
Eric Rubin: See?
G Q: So so the 16 is in?
Eric Rubin: Yep. There is no 16 unless I imprint it
G Q: Oh. um i think i think i think there is a 16.
Eric Rubin: sorry
G Q: Hey, this is... No there isn't.
Eric Rubin: No.
G Q: my bad my bad
Eric Rubin: No. Wrong race.
G Q: Alright.
Eric Rubin: That's okay.
G Q: Okay, so we're scratching surface.
Eric Rubin: You better be sharper than this on the oral feed here.
G Q: yeah
Eric Rubin: right
G Q: i You know what?
Eric Rubin: I don't need you talking about horses that don't exist.
G Q: My mind's on the Laurel races. Sorry. Okay.
Eric Rubin: yeah
G Q: i so um 13 will go post with the scratches of both the six and the 15. and the morning line favorite. is the eighth noble speech Seven to five morning line favorite.
G Q: Are you talking out here or going elsewhere?
Eric Rubin: I think this is a tough favorite, to be honest. i think form ah What's the name? Notable speech. Sorry, the eight horse is ah a legit favorite. Ran a good race at Woodbine last time. It was a little tight early, closed into a race that...
Eric Rubin: Probably benefited the Hoards up front. Deterministic had a pretty easy lead that day and still got caught. And that's a nice horse deterministic. So to me. The... he looks pretty good. Now it's a big field and it's a closer. There does seem to be a decent amount of speed again in this race. Like we mentioned last year, it's maybe not as much as the sprint year, but you still have towards like deterministic, the one. Cabo Spirit is ah ah mostly a centaur.
Eric Rubin: You've got the seven. Kirat has shown a lot of speed in his races. Rhetorical show speed. and even the 14 horse puerto rico showed some speed so There should be a decent amount of speed that they need to go, like some of the horse in the sprint. but Should be good speed, you know, but...
Eric Rubin: Who knows? You get in a little trouble. I'm reluctant to single closers in big fields because of that. You might have the best source. but you get in a little trouble. on There's another horse who I like just about as much as the eighth horse.
Eric Rubin: And... It's going to be a much bigger price. So that's going to be a bigger price. And that's going to be my key horse here. And that's the two lake. forest. i'm I'm a pretty big fan of this horse.
Eric Rubin: This horse ran two back against... a notable speech. And that was at York on August 22nd, 27th. Horse was, um...
Eric Rubin: In mint pack. Not really close to the winner, but held second well. And I just thought ran a ah decent race. at York. Then comes over to Keeneland, and this is a race I really liked. I thought she ran, oh, he ran really well here in North America.
Eric Rubin: Got off to a slow start. Now Chewbacca got off to a slightly slow start. I didn't mention that at York. Maybe not the sharpest out of the gate, but I don't think. I mean, there haven't been many races where the horse has gotten out of the gate terribly. There's been a few, but I'm not too worried about that. Plus, the horse comes off the pace, so that's okay as well.
Eric Rubin: uh but Over at Keeneland last time, there's a two -leg forest. Got off to a little bit of a slow, a very slow start. Was tight at the top in the stretch. Lacked room in the stretch. Was squeezed again at the eighth pole. And still was moving really well when free. Like, I was very impressed with that race.
Eric Rubin: And because of that race and the fact that he ran pretty well two back at York on. softer ground that maybe is not his favorite. I like big forest here. and You know, it's notable speech better. Probably is a little bit better.
Eric Rubin: But for the price difference, I'm i'm good with Lake Forest. So I'm mostly on the 2 .8 here. There's a couple other horses I like and would be interested in using. so If you want, I can go through those.
Eric Rubin: and
G Q: Yeah. Sure.
Eric Rubin: Then we can kind of talk about betting or anything you want to talk about before we move on. So I'll go through those. The five, ask Ikigomi. This is a horse that ran really well. If I can.
Eric Rubin: avoid getting killed by starling the cat here thank you starling Ah, yes. All over the place. But anyway, uh, two back. at hanshin is that he pronouncing hanshin i don't know i'm making that up uh Ran a good race. He raced mid -pack. There really wasn't much pace in the race and and finished pretty well. So I kind of like that race where he came a little off the pace.
Eric Rubin: And then last time. He was... ah May 10th at Tokyo, I guess it's the name of the race course. We haven't seen in the city. i Got up to a one -lens slow start. It was three wide. Did get a pretty good setup there, but still, between the slow start, a little wide trip. I thought the horse ran very well there. He's been off since, and I know you won't like this horse, the 5S Ikigomi, because... three -year -old going gets older for the first time, but he he's grown up a lot since then. And I don't know. I mean, I guess if you want.
Eric Rubin: DRF on their video has put out the workout reports and stuff or the yeah out. Was it Mike Welsh? Is it who does?
G Q: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: work out video so you know if you're interested check how he's working out and all But I just think this horse has a decent shot. He should be able to come off the pace. I think there's a good amount of speed here. And if the horse has improved, it's always tough because you don't know exactly what they're running against.
Eric Rubin: in Japan, but I think this horse has a shot. And the other two that I have some interest in, the nine rhetorical, who I mentioned in that Keeneland race. I mean, had a fairly easy lead, and the two horse here, Lake Forest, had...
Eric Rubin: significant trouble. But it did win pretty easy. And I like the race two back for a tourniquet at Saratoga where there was no pace. Uh, and it was hard to close and while he didn't close a ton, he didn't make up a little ground maybe. So, uh, I like that race there as well for a torque. All can excuse at least for Will Walden. So.
Eric Rubin: I kind of like the six rhetorical, the nine rhetorical. My only fear is. you know He doesn't need the lead, but he seems to be better. when he's very close and he's going to show some speed here.
Eric Rubin: Can he sit off the pace? You got Jose Ortiz, who's obviously very a very good jockey. So, you know. gets caught wide i don't know the trip has to work out but I'm interested in non -rhetorical. And the other one is the 14.
Eric Rubin: Puerto Rico is listed at 10 -1 for Ryan Moore. Aiden O 'Brien. I do not like the post for this source. I guess it's now the 13th post. But I'm not a big fan of the post, but last. Race.
Eric Rubin: I thought it ran really well. Yes, it was against True Love, who's back in here as the 12th horse. But I would like this horse out of the race more than True Love for a couple of reasons, mostly because it was like you don't see speed duels in Europe too often, but there were three across the track.
Eric Rubin: And this horse, Frederico, was three wide in. I don't know if you want to call it like a big duel, but basically three wide, three across the track. The other horses kind of faded. the One was a long shot and faded to last, and a 7 -1 faded to fourth, so it was was like just totally quit. but
Eric Rubin: I thought this horse was doing a wide trip. And up on that pace, I thought he ran well. If he was more inside, i would and if there was a little less speed in the race, I'd feel pretty good about the 14. But as it is, I have some interest there. So to recap real quickly, I like the two here. That's going to be my key. I think the eight, the favorite.
Eric Rubin: ah is going to be very tough. And then the other horses I want to play around with are the 5, the 9, and the 14. So that's how I kind of see this race. We'll talk about betting here. You know, I'm just looking. i you know the only Prices under, you know, what they're like five horses under 10 to one, eight to one deterministic. I'm not going to use this as that easily as it hasn't put, you know, done the job. The 12, is it the 12 horse? True Love, I already mentioned. It's run fine.
Eric Rubin: uh but He's been the chalk. He's probably been against a little easier even in some cases than some of these other Euros. and i just I want to take Puerto Rico out of that race at a bigger price. So I'm kind of against the 12 True Love.
Eric Rubin: And I don't know if there's anyone else who's short price here on your 10 to 1.
G Q: No.
Eric Rubin: So I am using a bunch of the chalks here. So I don't know how deep I'm going to go in the pick 5. I definitely want to use a 2 in the 8. And then the five will be next and the nine and 14. So I can go anywhere from two deep to five deep in the pick five here. and If I do bet the race. vertically, which I probably will. I'll play around with the two mostly. so um you know, assuming the two is not It's hard because... The two technically, I think, is second choice. Is that not right? I can see it's a second choice, Lake Forest.
G Q: ah Yeah.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, so when you have a favorite and a second favorite, I don't want.
G Q: Yep.
Eric Rubin: betting it so much. But it is a Breeders' Cup, and second choice is going to be 5 -6 -1, something like that. So I think it'll be worthwhile to still have it. So I'm okay with that. And I'd use the 2 also with the 5. the nine, the 14 for. you know progressively less money you know the five maybe a little less and ah The nine lessons. Maybe the 14. you know, a little more even like the five. to win.
Eric Rubin: 5 8 9 14 say exactus triple box And then two with. maybe 5, 8, 14, and then maybe two with. uh just five eight and then two with eight and kind of go from there so whittle it down so i have more on the two eight That's what I'm leaning to right now assuming the morning line is is accurate, which we know it probably will be based on who made it.
G Q: Okay, awesome. All right, moving on to the third leg of the late pick five on Breeders' Cup Saturday at Keeneland. This is race 10. mile and an eighth Breeders' Cup this day for fillies and mares three years old and upward. Field of Nine went through the...
G Q: Um. entry box but number five Scottish Lassie? has been withdrawn. and will not run. So a field of eight. which Number two, nitrogen has been...
G Q: listed as the 6 -5 morning line favorite. Is nitrogen single? here.
Eric Rubin: Not for me.
G Q: Okay.
Eric Rubin: I think nitrogen has a good chance here. This is another race though. you know, it came up, I guess good horses are fast. So it came up with. What? could be a very fast pace.
Eric Rubin: uh you have nitrogen the two horse you have sue uh seven super corandora i guess is a speed ball and the eight horse splendora loves to show speed so you have at least and and then some others have a little speed even so uh the nine you know mia so There could be a lot. Oh, and the one, even Immersive has... a lot of speed here so You have a a bunch of speed here in nitrogen.
Eric Rubin: Has done well last year. He's on the lead. Now, has come off the pace okay. But we'll see, because if she wants to go, she's going to have to go really fast, which she's capable of. And, you know, if she rates, is is she at her best? So we'll find out. And I'm not against nitrogen so much.
Eric Rubin: But there is another horse I'm really interested in betting here. And and let me just talk about the other favorite quickly too. on That's four fully subscribed hooves.
G Q: Sure.
Eric Rubin: I think eight to five, if I can read that correctly.
G Q: That's correct.
Eric Rubin: a Thank you. And these are words that I like as well. I might prefer fully described slightly. ah Just because of the running style, I think they're both excellent horses.
Eric Rubin: Ashi. could come off the pace a little more assuredly maybe than nitrogen the two and Amen. But I like both horses. I think they're both ah pretty good. They've been winning grade one. So I like the two and four. But the horse I'm going to play around with here, then I'm going to... you know, again, if we were making picks, I would put on top and will be the key in my bets is a long shot.
Eric Rubin: And that is a 20 to 1 shot, the 6th measure. So this is another horse that GQ, oh, maybe GQ will like because.
G Q: She has run against...
Eric Rubin: It's not technically hurtful.
G Q: ah
Eric Rubin: She's stepping up against three -year -olds, but she did have that allowance optional claimer. against three -year -olds back in June. at Saratoga. So, and and that was June 4th, which I didn't even really go back that far with the races, but I think that's when Speed, that was like earlier in the week. Belmont Week.
Eric Rubin: I think when speed was doing really well. So the fact, and the rail was, so the fact that she closed and. I don't know if she, I guess she was inside. I don't know where she was, but anyway. Let's kind of... Neither here nor there at that point. That was so long ago. So what do I like about Measure? Well, we talked about Measure a couple races back on our show, back when she ran. I don't know. I think we did the coaching club, American Oaks.
Eric Rubin: But we mentioned her in the, and when we mentioned that. I think we both like counting. i if I know I definitely did counting stars in that and was against always a runner. And then we talked about the Alabama where.
Eric Rubin: things changed a lot counting stars kind of random dud my guns loaded who was a um I'm pretty sure. uh chad brown Second choice, like five to two -ish. ended up winning that race.
Eric Rubin: And measure, I thought, ran ah a pretty good race to come a second that day. And then the last race, the Cotillion, I like a lot. because She was ah checked on the second turn while making a move. she was um really gaining momentum and.
Eric Rubin: It looked like she was going to make a big move and got checked pretty badly. And she still re -rallied. and she was slowly gaining at the end so i really thought that was an impressive race And...
Eric Rubin: I think she ran better in that race than she's run in any race yet. And I just think she's an improving horse. she should get a good setup with the pace here and i would like to take an improving horse here at a price rather than a horse who's run you know pretty big figures and I mean, to be honest with you Nitrogen.
Eric Rubin: Is she going to run the 113? She's going to win buyer wise, but you know, she's been, that's one race. She's 103, 105. And that's. Getting the lead. And she did run fast and in those races to get the lead. But, you know, I don't think she's running faster than that today as far as speed figures. Fully subscribed. Got the 106. But otherwise, she's a 98 buyer horse here. So if you're just looking at speed figures.
Eric Rubin: you know this horse doesn't improve as much as it may look on paper and I'm going to go with measure. maybe Maybe it's a tall order. Maybe she comes in third or something like that, but I'm going to take a swing with her. and I honestly don't really think too much. I don't see no one else as a chance, but I think there's a big step down to the others and I'm not really interested in anyone else. so I know it's not a good, this is why I'm not using Englishman in the pick five for the most part, because I'm going to go two, four, six in the pick five here. I'm going to use the two favorites. And again, normally I wouldn't recommend that.
Eric Rubin: But... The fact that I'm going to be knocking out a few favorites like Englishman and the fact that uh it's a breeders company i have huge fields Uh, it's not the worst thing in the world to do that. You know, not every race, but a race here, a race there. So, uh, I'll do two, four, six. I'm going to key the six measure. I'm sure I'll have a win bet.
Eric Rubin: I'm sure I'll bet the six with the two and the six with the four. in exactives i probably do a triple with them as well uh most likely have uh doubles and other The multi race. That's coming into the six.
Eric Rubin: uh from the last race i'll probably have the five fours i mentioned last race to the six not for you know two dollars something double and then i'll bet more with the words i like last race with the six here in doubles and I won't talk about races going forward just because that'll spoil things. but Anyway, so that's how I'm looking. So as far as the pick five goes, I'm 11 -12 in the first leg. That's T .O. Elvis and Strawdale. I might add in him and Nakatomi. I'm not sure.
Eric Rubin: In the second leg, I am going with the two favorites. say Well, one favorite and one second long. Second choice. And that's the two, Lake Forest and the eight.
Eric Rubin: notable speech. And I could add the five, nine, 14 there. So in both the first two legs, I'm going anywhere from two deep to five deep. And honestly, I'm comfortable going too deep in each race. So I'm not too deep there and I'm going three deep here. I don't love the structure of this because I don't like doing two by two, by three, by three, something like that, because you have to be like perfect in every race and be right about every race. I like where you take a stand, single a horse or two, and then in the race, you really don't know.
Eric Rubin: And it seems open and you can spread a little bit, but I kind of have to be perfect here, but I feel pretty strong about my opinion. So I'm okay doing that. Did you want to ask or add anything? I know I'm doing all the talking.
G Q: Well, no. um
Eric Rubin: That was my... request so i don't want to uh The audience to think I'm just hogging the show here.
G Q: No, no, no.
G Q: Your statement about using both of the short price fave.
Eric Rubin: Oh!
G Q: favorites or the co -favorites six to five and eight to five but Just a couple weeks ago, we had a situation where like everybody and their brother thought it was a two -horse race. I think it was a two -year -old race where there was a four -to -five morning line with a... Two to one. I forget the name of the horses.
G Q: But. Everybody said they couldn't separate them so they use both of them. And. One of them won. I think the shorter price won, but yet the pick five still came back over $2 ,000.
G Q: So... it can be done you know when when you can't separate two short price favorites.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, and I mentioned this on a show recently, maybe a couple times, but... you know one of the problems i had is i started to get a little better at doing this stuff And I started to win. I was winning, but not consistently. I had a year where I won, a year where I lost. And you know I was slowly getting better.
Eric Rubin: And... One of the things that I realized. I was trying to be too perfect. You know, you try to do things the right way. You know, all right, if I don't bet the favorite, it's okay to spread. But if I'm betting the favorite, I really shouldn't be spreading. Things like that. And in general, that's absolutely true.
Eric Rubin: But sometimes you try and be too perfect. so you know Like I said, imagine Stradale wins a 20 -1. Imagine wins a 20 -1. And, um...
G Q: measured.
Eric Rubin: Measured wins at 20 to 1. And then I don't have. uh a horse like who i like uh nitrogen even though i like it's one thing i don't like the horse but you know it has a good chance of winning i just want to go for a bigger price So yeah, you don't want to just throw in every favorite because based on that logic, I can just throw in every favorite. And that's why people make multiple tickets with the 20 to one shots. It's okay to add some favorites. but with.
Eric Rubin: you know The shorter price is you don't want T .O. Elvis winning and then having all chalk with him maybe. So sometimes people are trying to, and sometimes I at least, was trying to be too perfect. And I miss a sequence to pay two grand or three grand. because I didn't have the favorite one race, even though I kind of liked the favorite, but I was just looking for a bigger price. so Again, if you're doing nitrogen and fully subscribed, two favorites every race. or three out of the five or four you're gonna lose money long term but you know with big fields
Eric Rubin: some prices mixed in it's not the end of the world to do that and hopefully that's not terrible advice but i i found that for me that's not a terrible thing
G Q: no No, it's not. All right, so moving on for Saturday's. ah Late pick five at Keeneland for Breeders' Cup. Saturday.
G Q: uh the fourth leg is Race 11, which is the mile and a half. Breeders Cup. turf for three -year -olds. and upward uh, Maximum of 14 can go postward. 16 have been entered.
G Q: uh Number eight, test score. uh is an early withdrawal Scratch. um Which means... If the 15 wishes to get in. A map of stars. It opens a door for them. And here is where we have a number 16 as well. Telescopic, who's a 31.
G Q: outsider who remains on the AE. So... ah Eric, you've been spreading so far, so far. its Sounds like ah you have a single.
G Q: waiting in the wings or just, uh, paring it down.
Eric Rubin: I don't know if I've been spreading. I basically said I'm two two by three. It's not really spreading. I just haven't seen one.
G Q: Well, I know you usually usually have ah like a single. but uh
Eric Rubin: Yeah, and and I might make multiple tickets where I'll single you know horse here, horse there.
G Q: Good night.
Eric Rubin: And I will have a single in the sequence. But it's not going to be in this race. ah This is another race.
G Q: Okay.
Eric Rubin: This is actually to me the toughest race. And... No. When Benninger raised...
G Q: Morning light favorites, the 12, Diamond Neck was at 3 -1. which
Eric Rubin: Right now I'm against the 12 diamond necklace.
G Q: Alright, cool.
Eric Rubin: So, um, I'm basically, I'm definitely not using diamond necklace in my bets. ah here at three to one so When I don't like a favorite And I don't have a strong opinion on what specific horse I want to key or anything. You know, I don't mind spreading gear and that's what I'm going to do in this race. So this is going to be the spreadiest race, both in the pick five and in my vertical bets as well.
Eric Rubin: So I'll talk about a few of the horses and why I like them or don't like them. but Basically. Diamond necklace at 12. My bet against her, she's a nice horse. I just, the distance, I'm just questioning. I even heard, I don't really put stock into what trainers say usually.
Eric Rubin: But I heard Aiden O 'Brien talking about it, saying, you know, well, you know, she's good, but we'll see if she can get the distance. She ran a mile and a half for the first time last race. And yeah, she got off to a little bit of a slow start and she was. three wide, so there are some excuses.
Eric Rubin: But she was out finishing that race. and um She doesn't have an inside post, so chances are she's not going to be able to save that much ground here. I mean, maybe, but I don't think so. so Um. I'm kind of hoping that the distance is a little much for this horse, and and I'm okay going against him. There's some others that look pretty good here.
Eric Rubin: uh It is also where, you know, like a lot of people like to put out their pics. and Some people sell their pics and all, but... It... If you're trying to just put out picks and you know bet a specific order, sometimes that's not the best approach. I know that sounds weird, but what I mean by that is.
Eric Rubin: If your opinion is just you don't like the favorite, It doesn't mean you have to single or or key on one horse here. and there is a horse i kind of like here but i'm just going to spread with with a bunch of them And the horse I like.
Eric Rubin: I think the most. It's a bit of a price also, and that's a 15 -1 shot, and I hope this isn't heart overhead. And that's the 11 Servi, I believe it's pronounced.
Eric Rubin: ah And if there are any females listening to our podcast, maybe they'll like me a little more now because I am picking the lady here.
G Q: yes
Eric Rubin: Oh wait, these are all ladies!
G Q: ah they're all it no no they're not no they're not
Eric Rubin: Don't. No, not really. Oh, I got scared.
G Q: Diamond necklace.
Eric Rubin: I thought there were a couple ladies, though.
G Q: Diamond necklace.
Eric Rubin: That threw me off.
G Q: Tiffany!
Eric Rubin: Yes!
G Q: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: that threw me out i'm like wait i thought this was a a race with boys and then i look everyone on the outside is a girl but it is a mix of boys and girls all right well
G Q: There.
Eric Rubin: They won't like me as much, but I am picking a girl here.
G Q: Oh.
Eric Rubin: Servi, hopefully I'm pronoun pronouncing it right. So why do I like this horse? Well, first of all, If you follow me on Twitter, you might not remember this because it's not that memorable, my Twitter feed, but... When Servi won that race at Saratoga.
Eric Rubin: That was the Christophe Clement. and That close was one of the most impressive closes I've seen. now i wasn't in person i was watching it actually from timonium a tv in timonium I don't know if you were next to me at the time or you were on the air, but...
Eric Rubin: i was so impressed with that clothes there was like no pace in the race And she came home at like 22 and change or something like that. It was insane. And I do like Minaret Station, a good horse there. And she just flew by that horse. so Uh,
Eric Rubin: Servi ran great that race. I don't care what the speed figure says. Some people see a 98 buyer. Oh, these others are running hundreds, but they're going slow up front. If they were going faster up front, she would have had a better setup and the time would have been faster and she might've got 105 buyer. So the question becomes, you know, what happened next race? She was over in Europe and France.
Eric Rubin: and i didn't bet that but if i was i probably would have liked her in that spot And it looks like she ran like crap. but She was closing and the rail got shut off. It kind of... I'm trying to.
Eric Rubin: Does it really say that in the comments Midfield bid, two furlongs out, not clear. Oh, it does say, not clear run against the far rail, one furlong out ease. So it alludes to it. but it doesn't make it sound as bad as it was like she just got shut off on the rail and basically The jockey took up.
Eric Rubin: Ryan Moore just gave up and said, I'm not going to ride anymore. Or maybe something happened, but. ah Who knows? If she got through, could she have won that race? Yeah. I don't know if she was going to, but she could have. so That just dirties up her form here and gives me a better price. And she won that race. She's coming to this race as a second choice, maybe even the favorite. so To me, I really do like serving here and I'm going to... You serve me a lot in my bets.
Eric Rubin: But it's not like she's an overwhelming choice here. She's kind of a... a bit of a reach maybe. and I made a good case for her, I think, and and I like her. So who else do I want to use in this race? well I'm going to go very deep here. I won't mention, I won't go in detail on everyone. Maybe I'll mention some, but.
Eric Rubin: ah The one ethical diamond. who last race at Kentucky Downs was. Pretty good. First of all, Ethical Diamond won this race last year. Now, she had a pretty good setup to win it. So that did help.
Eric Rubin: But... If you look at last race, I know it's Kentucky Downs. But ah first of all, I thought she ran well at Leopard Sound two back. ah She barely won the race, but but she ran well, I thought. And last race at Kentucky Downs, I said for the eighth time.
G Q: He. He. We...
Eric Rubin: he I'm sorry. he I appreciate you saying that.
G Q: Yeah. but there's There's only three three Phillies or Mayors.
Eric Rubin: Cheese. All right.
G Q: They're the 10 -11, or actually the 9 -10 -11. um and 12. yeah four of them i'm sorry
Eric Rubin: Thank you.
G Q: They're all on the road in 10, 11, 12.
Eric Rubin: right I appreciate it. Oh, sorry. I appreciate you saying that, actually. i like Well, there's one podcast where there's someone who I respect their opinion a lot. But I...
G Q: it
Eric Rubin: can't listen because He calls the words it, and i just it just pisses me off. I know it's stupid and no one cares, but it pisses me off. So if I get the gender wrong, I feel bad too. So. Anyway, at least say they, right?
Eric Rubin: You know, gender, no.
G Q: Yes. yeah that
Eric Rubin: So anyway, ethical and dominant outrun really well in Kentucky Nouns. Got stuck late on the turn for a Probably. a couple lens lost. Uh... but also lost some momentum. Now that is Kentucky down. So I don't know how that translates here per se.
Eric Rubin: But I thought it ran really well. It's obviously run well in the States. That's two races in the United States. It should be two for two. So I do like Ethical Diamond here. The two horse. Benvenuto, Cellini.
Eric Rubin: I don't know, I was gonna... It's an Irish horse. I think that's an Italian name though. and My accent made it. Butchered, but This horse has run better than it looks in the last two. This horse seems to get in a lot of trouble.
Eric Rubin: But two back got stuck in the stretch. Probably would have got third, maybe maybe fourth. uh wasn't gonna win the race but it definitely hurt there was a runoff in that race He was second, so you know he showed some speed. Yeah, well behind the runoff, but but has a little bit of speed here. For Ryan Moore. That's a two. Benvenuto.
Eric Rubin: salini And then last race at Longchamp. against a few of these in the arc. He was bumped and forced in at the start. And kind of got buried on the rail and was further back. These are words where I think has a little bit of speed and really got buried back on the rail. further than he wanted and was closing and had to alter some of the stretch also so i thought the tumor and this is why i can't just
Eric Rubin: Go with Servi and that's it because these horses run really well, I thought. And a pretty good horse here. So that's the one, that's the two, the three minute rate station, I think is the only American I'm going to have in my picks here.
Eric Rubin: This is where it's true. We've talked about it a lot because... she's ah He's run in some races that we've covered being a New York horse, including that Bowling Green where... Old Crazy Bones won for me.
Eric Rubin: uh wired the field there and barely held on that's the pratt ride that
G Q: Cross -country pick five.
Eric Rubin: Right, exactly. And Pratt almost screwed up that ride at the end, but luckily he didn't. Uh, so ran well there and then and And there was no pace in that race. Old Crazy Bone just walked around the the track with Fort George just following her. It was like a merry -go -round. So Minaret Station was the best horse in that race, and I was very impressed.
Eric Rubin: Then came back and ran in that Servi race two back where Servi closed like a monster. And yes, Minaret Station was up on the slow pace, but that's not really her style. She's shown a little more speed recently now, but that's not really her style. And she had to do that. And ah he. I don't think he wants to do that And I thought ran pretty well considering that. And then last race ran really well with three wide trip. winning the Joe Hirsch over at Belmont.
Eric Rubin: Ah. and just I mean this horse is in good form. You could argue he's even improving. so i definitely like minaret station so you know the survey serving the 11 but i also have the one two three and one other horse i'll talk about is the 14 i'm just going to turn the page sorry Deep Monster. the Japanese horse.
Eric Rubin: uh coming in here uh these are words where i thought ran very well. Q back in May, like really well, was keen. ah And. I can't even read. Oh, and rank.
Eric Rubin: ah Did save ground. Then got shut off late. Probably would have won that race two back at Sha Tin in May. And last race, I didn't love. His race last race. where he was at Kyoto.
Eric Rubin: However, He saved ground, really had a perfect trip and was out finished. Bye. He probably needed that race. I'm assuming that was a prep for this. And I really liked his race two back. So yeah, an eight -year -old, you know, we'll see what he's got in the tank. I would say the others, especially with the post position, I like better, but because that horse is going to be 30 to one, I'm fine with deep monster. So those are the mean five. I'm going to play around with my bets.
Eric Rubin: And. You want to jump in for a second? I want to say one more thing about the betting, but did did you want to jump in?
G Q: no
Eric Rubin: Nope. Oh I thought you were looking to say something.
G Q: I'm good.
Eric Rubin: All right. And the other horses that I would probably use in a pick five, cause I'm going to go real deep. I won't talk about why or anything, but you know, the 10 Tiffany. And the 13 I wrote down who is...
Eric Rubin: Bay City ruler. And I might even throw in the horse that looks like he's going to draw in. and that is the 15 map of stars is a possibility probably not been a possibility uh so To recap. the horse I'm probably gonna use in the pick five is.
Eric Rubin: The one, two, three. 11, 14, definitely using. Most likely the 10 and 13. possibly the 15, but probably 10 and 13. So I'm probably five to seven deep here. As far as betting the race.
Eric Rubin: Because they're all prices right pretty much I'll probably box. Dos. I got to look at the prices. The one is 10 to one. The two is only six to one.
Eric Rubin: The three is 15 to one. The 11 is 15 to 1, and the 14 is 30 to 1. I mean... I would probably box all five. And then I know that's not something people would do, but if most of them are double digit odds, I'd probably box all five. Now that's bigger budget than people want to spend.
Eric Rubin: There's a $1 box is $20 for exactly a 50 cent box, 30 cents for a triple. And if you asked me like a year or two ago, You're going to box five words. I would almost say you're crazy, but when you don't like the favorite.
Eric Rubin: and you have four horses, double digit odds yeah and no one under six to one. I'm okay with that. But then I would press for the words I like more. So then I would do, sir I probably do. a one, two, three, 11 box extra. And I key survey with those horses extra. So 11 with.
Eric Rubin: 1, 2, 3, 14. And when I'm keying survey, that's when I would add in the 10 and 13 a little bit also just with survey. So, cause I'm not boxing six or seven horses. So I know some people out there are probably listening to me like this guy's an idiot. He's going to box five horses. It's rare that I do it, but. I mean,
Eric Rubin: that's fine i wouldn't recommend it 98 of the races but 99 but in this case I think it's okay because if the minimum payout is going to be $100 exact, hundred dollar exacta minimum.
Eric Rubin: I'm okay spending $20 where the worst case scenario is a zero. But if I'm right, the worst case scenario is over a hundred bucks and probably more. so Maybe it's not that much, but it should be close to that. So I'm okay with that. and That's how I'm going to approach this race. I'll probably bet survey to win a 15 to one. You know, it's tough to bet multi -race bets like doubles and pick threes because I am spreading.
Eric Rubin: But because I do like a long shot in the race before measure, I'll probably be measure into these horses. You know, a small bet I'll measure. ah with the five of them. And I do have a horse in the last race I'll probably key on, so I might bet. you know, going forward as well. Hopefully I'll be alive in the pick five. So it won't matter, but yeah, this is my deepest race in the pick five, minimum five deep.
Eric Rubin: Probably. seven deep, maybe even eight deep. without the favorite. Okay.
G Q: Yeah, um speaking of boxing five horses. ah Um. at Laurel last weekend. and It was made in 16... on on the turf.
G Q: Really like this horse that wound up. I up going off five to your favorite. It was one of my five horses, but yeah I think it was four to one. And I'm like, I can't decide. Should I key? Should I box? I was going to.
G Q: Just boxed five. And. As they're loading a gate, I just said, nah. it My luck, you know. it It's a $20 for a dollar box ah exact of five horses.
G Q: I'm like, and it'll come in and I'll pay 30 bucks for two or something like that. Well. My lot. The four horse wins at 5 -2, and the horse that runs second was like 38 -1.
G Q: Dollar exact to pay 92 and also the third Third horse.
Eric Rubin: well
G Q: And the triple 50 cent triple paid. 462.
Eric Rubin: Now was there another... with a five to two shot was there another short price you were Benigno?
G Q: um Maybe third choice. But then the other three were all double digits.
Eric Rubin: So, well, one thing you could have done there and I could do here even is. if you got, if you have that short price horse, instead of putting them together, you know, just do it separate. So maybe like, let's say this five horse, but you know, five to two and a five to one instead of boxing all five. So if it comes in five to two over the five to one, you're probably going to lose money and break even. It's probably not worth it. you can do
Eric Rubin: five a box where you use four horses right the the five to two shot and the three long shots and then another bet where you use the five with the other long shots and that's
G Q: Right.
Eric Rubin: you know less money you're spending and yeah you don't have that one combination but you're saving money on that so because long term you keep betting those two together when you are spreading in a race so you obviously think it's a little open you probably lose money long term putting the two favorites together. Like that's what I can do in this race. What I can do.
Eric Rubin: because Um... Sorry. Who's the shortest prices? The two Benevento, Salini, and was there another horse that was single vengeance for me or that was the only one?
G Q: I think I was the only one.
Eric Rubin: All right, so maybe it doesn't apply as much here. Uh, yeah, it doesn't really. Yeah. Oh, I didn't see the 13. I'm leaving out to five to one. I mean, I might use a little bit survey, but I'm not using it. that me be So yeah, I'm leaving out the favorite, the second favorite. out I'm okay. Spreading.
Eric Rubin: in my best there so but that's something you can do you have Two two kind of chalky horses, but then three long shots. Just separate them. Yeah, have the long shots together. so you know, do the three long shots, box them together for six bucks and then keep one favorite with them.
Eric Rubin: and the other favorite with them. So you kind of covered him. If I was not betting more, like if I wasn't also pressing and keying survey, I don't know that I would box all five, but you know, maybe I would. But I'm also going to key down, so hopefully I'm right. Anyway.
Eric Rubin: Hopefully that's good. talk
G Q: Well, I'm really going to date myself and probably the majority of our... Audience. Well. Wouldn't get it, but I think the 13. 13 has picked the perfect day.
G Q: To run and win. Because you know why? because it's S -A -T -U -R -D -A -Y. Hey! S -A -T -U -R -D -A -Y.
G Q: Hey. Bay City Rollers? No. yes
Eric Rubin: No.
G Q: even before your time.
Eric Rubin: Never heard of them
G Q: Oh, my gosh. All right, everybody, you have to go at YouTube or Google Bay City Rollers. And they had a hit song. Saturday night. Bye.
Eric Rubin: Was this from the 60s or 50s?
G Q: ah Probably 70s, maybe. Yeah.
Eric Rubin: I'm teasing you, I'm teasing you.
G Q: Nah, it was probably, ah I'd say maybe it was the mid -80s, whatever.
Eric Rubin: All right.
Eric Rubin: can Can I just ask you a favor before we move on?
G Q: Amen. Sure.
Eric Rubin: All right, because I'd love to see you on the Laurel feed again, please do not sing on the airwaves this weekend. because I have a feeling they might not ask you back.
G Q: Well, the the sad sad or the good thing is is like they keep a tight rein. It's like all you know they they kind of like feed me the lines and it's like I got to... stick to the to the program. yeah I just can't.
G Q: You know, like we do. It's like, yeah, you know, let's go off topic. Now mention things. and the And the thing is, is since Saturday is Halloween, I wouldn't dare wear a costume.
G Q: Even though I'm sure there's a lot of other tracks that people will be wearing costumes. All right, so we we digress. ah Let's move on to the finale for the Breeders' Cup on Saturday.
G Q: Last leg of the triple crown. Triple crown. Oh my gosh. Last leg of the pick five late pick five is race 12. Breeders Cup. Classic.
G Q: which Has a field of eight, no scratches so far. And. Are you going to be singing ah Rod Stewart? On Saturday, Eric.
Eric Rubin: I think I'm going to be singing Rod Stewart.
G Q: Yeah. Yes.
Eric Rubin: That's an old reference, but I understood that one at least.
G Q: a Number five, Forever Young. is the tudo that That was a bad impersonation.
Eric Rubin: Oh boy.
Eric Rubin: Yes.
G Q: um fair Forever Young's a 2 -1 morning line favorite over Sovereignty. Does everybody have the feeling that sovereignty may be... Scratched. out of here
Eric Rubin: no maybe i have no idea i i honestly we were talking about this before we went on i think or maybe i said it on the air here but i don't really like follow the news that closely with the horse racing so i don't even know these things i know he I don't even know if it's recently missed some works maybe.
G Q: Oh, okay.
G Q: Bye.
Eric Rubin: I think that was a while ago already, but I could be wrong.
G Q: That was a while ago. and
Eric Rubin: Okay. Had some runs since August.
G Q: i Mean just the fact that my
Eric Rubin: Bye.
G Q: Entered Knightsbridge in the classic as well. People were suspecting things.
Eric Rubin: I mean, it's $7 million and nice picture and a really good race.
G Q: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: And worst case, he sets a fast pace to help. sovereignty so
G Q: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: I don't know. Maybe you have something there, but I i don't think so.
G Q: Okay. All right, so, um... Kata the bag. You're in love with Forever Young.
Eric Rubin: Not that I'm in love. with Forever Young. I was in love with Forever Young on May 4th.
G Q: On Derby Day.
Eric Rubin: All right.
G Q: and
Eric Rubin: About 652.
G Q: up. yes
Eric Rubin: on Derby Day when he was making a huge move, and then when...
G Q: My horse says...
Eric Rubin: I'm blacking out the jockey of, who was the jockey? Was it Irad or Pratt? I don't know who it was.
G Q: It was... Pratt! Pratt on Sierra Leone.
Eric Rubin: Hmm. Who cheated and hit Forever Young, preventing me from making a five -figure score probably.
G Q: so
Eric Rubin: and cost Forever Young a Kentucky Derby that he deserved. Now he got a good setup that day. um So, you know. I don't know, but so did Mystic Dan. But he would have won that race, and I would have been a very happy person. So I've been a Forever Young fan, but so are a lot of people. You're not getting a big prize.
Eric Rubin: To me, the two sovereignty and the five forever young are better than these And I. I could go, this is where you're talking about too deep. I guess I could go too deep here with the two favorites. I think I have enough prices. I'm leaving out Englishman. I'm leaving out the favorite in race 11. So maybe I can go too deep. I have to do the math, but you know, I. Most likely I'll just single Forever Young so I can spread a little more in the other races and save money.
Eric Rubin: um and why I just. you know, maybe sovereignty hasn't run in a while. He's probably doing fine. He should get a good setup. He ran really well. Last race. I like Somerton, but...
Eric Rubin: Forever young I think is almost like a I don't know, a safer pick. I mean, this is worth 16 for 16 in the trifecta. He's... 12 for 16, he's earned 30, how much million? $32 million, dollars something like that. I mean, this horse is a monster horse. Last race.
Eric Rubin: Chase Phileas Fogg. Philly's Fog was ah a maybe for this race. And I know some people might not be as familiar with Philly's Fog, kind of a New York -based horse here. But this is a horse who's run some huge races. And when he gets on the lead, he's tough to corral. This horse just kind of chased Phileas Fogg. After bumping it in the break.
Eric Rubin: And just like put that horse away easily. And it was only a four horse field, but I mean, this horse ran a. Really good race. I know Baeza doesn't get out of the gate, but Baeza didn't get ah out of the gate in some other races and still got up against like Sovereignty 2 back and all. But in this race, Baeza and Gallagher had no chance to catch Forever Young. So for me...
Eric Rubin: I just, I like Forever Young. i He's come from off the pace before. He's shown more speed. And I think there is some decent speed here. So I hope the jockey, Sakai, can time it well.
Eric Rubin: ah He's going to get first run on sovereignty. If they're going 46 and 109, then maybe that, you know, he's going to make an early move and sovereignty closes. but I'm hoping Sky can time it right. I'm hoping for every young.
Eric Rubin: i can win this Breeders' Cup Classic like he did last year. and I'm mostly going to single him. Again, sovereignty would be my other horse, but I'm just talking out here. um I guess we can talk about some of the other horses.
G Q: Well, here I have a question for you.
Eric Rubin: Real quick. ah Go ahead.
G Q: Of the early speed horses, who would Who do you think will last the longest if they... Can't. go gate the wire or
Eric Rubin: Knightsbridge. That's the only speed horse I like. I don't like magnitude. he
G Q: Yeah.
Eric Rubin: I've been against Matt Coote all the time. He wins when he has an easy lead and runs huge figures. And when he doesn't, he doesn't run nearly as well. He's probably not going to get that here. I might look like a fool, but Magnitude will be on zero tickets, and I will not worry about it. If he wins, then I'm out.
Eric Rubin: Uh, I don't like the eight Napoleon solo. I don't think he's like awful or anything like that, but you know, in the Travers at Oriana. a fairly comfortable lead. It took him ah a little bit to get to lead. I thought he had a fairly comfortable lead. Leading change was up on the pace also, and leading change just ran better than him. I'm not a huge Napoleon Solo guy here. so They have no interest. Nice bridge. The seven run really well. He's gotten a big speed duel and survived and and won for fun.
Eric Rubin: you know, in the fast pace. I thought he run really well. and The question about him was the distance, not the talent. And he showed he can go the distance there. I just think there's going to be a decent pace here again, and he's got...
Eric Rubin: Tougher horses running him down this time. so ah For me, I like Knightsbridge. I might use him in some bets, but I'm not going to. spread like Listen, if I can spread in a pick five here. So if you're someone who's like, I'm singling another race or I'm singling other races, I want to spread a little here.
Eric Rubin: The other horse is under the two favorites, like the three, four, seven. So. I already mentioned sovereignty. I'm sorry Knights versus seven why I like the four, the Puma a lot. My only question with the Puma is the distance. If this was a mile on and an eighth, he would definitely be my second choice behind Forever Young and maybe even first choice because of the price.
Eric Rubin: I just worry about the distance, but there's a horse who's been improving since he came back off the lamp. I liked him in the Derby and he got scratched. So we'll never know what would happen but He's improved each of his last ah few races.
Eric Rubin: uh so he's an improving sort and i just I don't know. I just think he's a a good horse. I don't like the fact that further ado was slowly gaining on him, though he wasn't going to lose to further ado. I don't think further ado is going by him, but not I know further ado is one of the favorites in the dirt mile, whatever it is, but you know, I don't, I don't love that, but I thought this horse.
Eric Rubin: it The Pullman is a very, very good horse. Just, you know, the mile on the court is stretching it. Otherwise, I would want to use him definitely. And the three, Golden Tempo, should get a ah good setup here. It's consistently run well.
Eric Rubin: uh in in a mile and a quarter race this year. And, you know, yeah, it's got to run a little faster, but why can't it improve a little more since August as a three -year -old who's getting better, you would think. So I kind of like golden tempo too. so um You know, i'm I'm probably singling for every young just because betting -wise, I need to take a stand somewhere.
Eric Rubin: But I would love to have you know sovereignty i would love to have golden temple in the puma and even knightsbridge uh so those would be my five that i would bet you know as far as vertical I don't know that I would bet this race vertical because...
Eric Rubin: I would have to bet against either the Five Horse Forever Young or the True Sovereignty. and I don't really want to spend money trying to beat them. So I don't think I would bet it vertically, even though I do have a few price in there. And I kind of want to bet against magnitude a little bit. and I don't know if you really... I mean, betting against him only sold 15 to 1, so I can't really say that, but... I don't know that there's much I want to bet in this race per se.
Eric Rubin: But i get I don't even know. Yeah, I don't think I would bet this race vertically. I'm hoping to be alive in multi -race bets and I can just sit back and... you know watch and i guess if i did bend it vertically i would i would I'll probably bet.
Eric Rubin: Forever Young, Golden Tempo, The Puma. and knights bridge and just i don't want say hope sovereignty doesn't run well i hope something's wrong i hate to say that i wouldn't I hope something's wrong, but you know, I would hope this training was on whatever, but I just, I don't know if it's worth wasting, you know, 20, 30, 40, 50 bucks.
Eric Rubin: you know, trying to beat that horse totally. Out of the exact in the triple. So yeah, I'm um you know Leading to Forever Young, mostly. And yeah, if I can add the others in the pick five, I would love to. But the way my ticket's going, it probably won't be the case. Maybe, you know, if I bet a ticket where I'm short, where I said I can go too deep in the other race, where I'm like two by two by, you know, short, short, and then I can add the others here.
Eric Rubin: But I don't even know if I would do that. Maybe just take a sandwich forever young and that's it.
G Q: Okay. I'm going to ask you a question and. You're already... Gave the answer a couple races back What does... Golden Tempo, The Puma, and Napoleon Solo.
G Q: All have in common.
Eric Rubin: Obviously. their are three -year -olds going as older. However,
G Q: For the first time.
Eric Rubin: If I shouldn't have been like a lawyer and prepared for this. And come up with all the three -year -olds who won, like, the Breeders' Cup Classic or Grade 1 races, first time versus older in the fall.
G Q: Yes.
Eric Rubin: I'm sure the list is extensive.
G Q: and i i don't I'd also like to see a list of those. the three -year -olds who went off as favorites and did not win.
Eric Rubin: All right. You work on that. You know who's good? Ed DeRozan. He's good with all those stats. So you're friendly with him.
G Q: Hey, Dick King!
Eric Rubin: Reach out to Ed.
G Q: the...
Eric Rubin: and put together.
G Q: the... Done. tons uh formulator can't you just Say, hey, Formulator, tell me all the three -year -olds who've won first time they've faced older.
Eric Rubin: Yeah, no, it doesn't quite work like that.
G Q: Oh. All of them. Where's ChatGPT or Muse or Claude or any AI?
Eric Rubin: That might work. I don't know. You can try that.
G Q: Somebody out there. Ask your... Um. AI agent. There's questions.
Eric Rubin: Definitely.
G Q: So.
Eric Rubin: All right, well, that's all I got. I talked a lot this episode, so thank you for letting me get my opinions out hopefully there. Accurate. and I do well and people out there do well if they agree.
G Q: Two minutes to an hour, so we're going to make it. Sigh.
Eric Rubin: Unless you keep referencing that, so let's go.
G Q: no No, no more references. Everyone enjoy Breeders' Cup. I... Turn to Laurel in between um races, and maybe you'll see my ugly mug.
G Q: We usually go on about 14 minutes before. You'll see me for about 15 seconds and then I disappear. uh behind um uh other uh graphics so Uh,
G Q: Once again, enjoy the races everyone.
Eric Rubin: All right. And thank you, GQ. I know it's an exciting and busy week for you, but you were still able to come on. I know you didn't have time to study too much, but... You're focused on Laurel, which is totally understandable. And all the people out there, I know you're listening and watching the Breeders' Cup, but... starting thursday friday saturday sunday turn on the world for a little bit or a lot and Maybe throw a few bucks if you want, but at least watch.
Eric Rubin: I don't think they do ratings but I'd love to see the ratings jump. and they oh that guy gq we gotta bring him back
G Q: Yeah. Yeah, because, hey, on
Eric Rubin: Oh.
G Q: Friday Breeders' Cup and then Saturday Breeders' Cup. I'm sure Laurel is going to go through the roof with the handles.
Eric Rubin: Well, it brings more people to the track so you never know but anyway, all right So we can get under an hour.
G Q: Oh. Yes. Yes. Yeah.
Eric Rubin: I'm going to cut it off there. Thank you for listening, y 'all. We will see you next week. Good luck at the races. Ta -ta.
