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#15 Inside Steer: Conversations with Experts Ep. 2 | Masroor Hasan
41 Plays4 months ago
Passenger rail across North America is undergoing a fundamental reset. Travel patterns have shifted, funding is tighter, and agencies are being forced to rethink how services are planned, funded and operated.
In this episode of Inside Steer: Conversations with Experts, Herbert Higginbotham, Executive President, North America, speaks with Masroor Hasan, Senior Vice President, Rail Advisory, about how the rail and transit sector is responding in real time.
They discuss what ridership recovery really looks like post-pandemic, why traditional demand assumptions no longer hold, and how data-driven planning is helping agencies adapt. The conversation also explores the growing role of private partners, the increasing focus on business cases and investment discipline, and what the next 5–10 years could mean for passenger rail across the US and Canada.
A practical, insight-led discussion for public agencies, investors and anyone involved in shaping the future of rail.
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Transcript
Impact of Pandemic on Passenger Services
00:00:00
Speaker
Take us back five years, where in the middle of a pandemic, the whole world stops. course, the pandemic created a havoc in almost all passenger services across the country.
00:00:10
Speaker
So what we have been observing over the last two, three years is actually, in most cases, the ridership recovery is very encouraging.
Introduction to Episode 2 of 'Inside STEER'
00:00:21
Speaker
Hey, everyone. Welcome to Episode 2 of Inside STEER, Conversations with Experts. This is the series where we meet some of the people shaping STEER's work and leading through North America.
00:00:33
Speaker
I'm Herb Piggambotham, Executive President of STEER North America. If you don't know us, we're a global consultancy. We support public and private organizations that deliver the critical services and infrastructure that move our communities and help people work better.
Meet the Experts: Herb and Mizrahar
00:00:47
Speaker
I'm coming to you live today from Los Angeles, California. And joining me today from Boston, Massachusetts is Mizrahar Hassan. He's a senior vice president in our rail and transit space. Hey, Mizrahar, how are you?
00:01:00
Speaker
Hey, Harb. Doing fine. Thank you. How about you? and Doing just great. It's beautiful today. Thanks for having me here, but yeah I really appreciate it Absolutely. up So everyone together with Ms.
Challenges and Outlook in Rail and Transit Industry
00:01:12
Speaker
Roar today, we're going to explore um what he's doing in the rail and transit space today. um We'll probably talk a little bit about how he got involved and what he sees as his outlook for the the market right now in light of a lot of factors that are changing in our communities every day across North America.
00:01:29
Speaker
um Welcome to the program and let's get started. So, Ms. Rourke, I just want to start, you know, tell us a little bit about, you know, when when we say rail and transit, when when you sort of, you know, get up and put your socks on every day and go to work, what is it that you're trying to do?
00:01:46
Speaker
I mean, again, the the first thing I'm trying to do is is to, of course, um win more work for the company in the rail and transit space. I think that is my first and foremost ah responsibility and and my target.
00:02:01
Speaker
ah But in addition to that, of course, the other thing I really enjoy is is doing the work itself. So whatever project we have, we ah work on that. I work on that.
00:02:11
Speaker
So it's not only the selling part. The doing part is also that attracts me a lot. in the rail entranced space. ah And in that doing, what's happening right now in the rail
High-Speed Rail Progress in North America
00:02:24
Speaker
space? And and I sort of, you know, I say it is, ah you know, having worked in the space myself now for for quite a long time, um you know you know, we've seen um other countries really advance high-speed rail.
00:02:37
Speaker
We've seen, you know, those attempts and forays here um in North America, both in Canada and the U.S. It feels like it's, you know, my view, Ms. Ruff, feels like it feels like it can be choppy at times in terms of, you know, um you know spurts and grunts in terms of moving forward. um But we do see some progress along the way. I'm just kind of curious, as you sort of look at the industry in the space today, what's really keeping you up at night? What are really the types of problems your clients are thinking about trying to solve?
00:03:07
Speaker
So, of course, I mean, as you said, we are seeing you know some ups and downs in the rail industry, especially in the intercity regional rail arena of the space. um There have been some, I mean, one of the big thing is the funding issue.
00:03:24
Speaker
I mean, there are some funding um issues that are currently happening, um especially um coming from federal government. um Some of the funds are definitely um delayed.
00:03:36
Speaker
So what I've seen, I've been noticing is there's been also a lot of private sector involvement, um not only in developing passenger rail, but also um in the operations of heavy rail, especially in in different um different jurisdictions, different geography of the country.
Funding Challenges and Private Sector Involvement
00:03:56
Speaker
um So, of course, um I mean, the other thing I'm i'm thinking i'm seeing and observing um in the view of the funding scarcity or funding uncertainty from the federal government, which have been, of course, traditionally the main funder and which will continue to be our the main funder, but there will a lot of P3, many more P3 arrangements that are currently being discussed um so that um some of the... Public-private partnerships. The public-private partnerships, exactly.
00:04:27
Speaker
um Some of those funding issues can be actually... um subverted in some ways. um So that's something that's that's happening um quite a bit. We have already seen ah more private sector involvement in in some of those development. We see that in um back in West, in California. We see that in Florida in terms of just developing new service.
00:04:50
Speaker
But in terms of operating, there's even more in terms of you know who are the operators. um ah more private sector um operators are being involved in the U.S. in terms of operating the um passenger and service in the country.
00:05:06
Speaker
So more players in the mix. um You mentioned you know private partners. I heard you talk about states a little bit getting involved too. As more players get into the mix, um what are both the, you know, the, I guess, the advantages and pros that can come from that? What are some of the things then that, you know, clients today who are either, you know, thinking about or planning or or designing or even operating real systems? what are What are some of the challenges, I guess, that are introduced with a more complex governance model?
00:05:37
Speaker
I think there's a lot of benefits in in more more parties, more players being involved and coming into the picture. um i mean, as I said, funding ah has been and will be ah the main issue in developing passenger rail. um So the more we have the private sector, the less we'll see um the funding issue to be ah really an obstacle in in a lot of places.
00:06:01
Speaker
um So I think that's where ah ah the benefits of private sector or more players come into picture. um I mean, it's even the state funding, um ah there are ah some states, very few, who have their own mechanism of generating ah funds. For example, California being a prime example.
00:06:21
Speaker
But many states, most states don't have that kind of you know um funding general mechanism that they can use to really um either sales tax or or any other mechanism to really fund passenger rail.
00:06:34
Speaker
They have to depend on on federal government for that. So the more the private sector is coming into this um ah industry, um the better for for us who definitely want passenger rail to flourish even more in the U.S.
Amtrak's Acela Launch and Ridership Recovery
00:06:50
Speaker
I mean, there have been um some key developments, of course. For example, Amtrak has...
00:06:55
Speaker
um just started their new um seller um trends. um you know um They put them in service last month. um So um you know I think we'll see how it goes, but um it's been a long time coming and and um and that's something that's also very exciting in terms of um ah service, passenger service in the Northeast, which is most probably the biggest market in the country at this point.
00:07:24
Speaker
Got it. You talked about that that Northeast quarter market and, you know, long been sort of hailed, you know, certainly in the United States ah as a as a as a great rail quarter.
00:07:37
Speaker
But, you know, take Take us back five years. We're the middle of a pandemic. um You know, the whole world stops. ah Rail and transit as well.
00:07:48
Speaker
um And in that comeback, as transportation starts to come back, and of course, you know, everything's changing now with how we yeah we work, how we move. um You know, we we saw we saw these dips um in the transit space, particularly in, you know, the the regional and inner city rail transit that that you work in um that has sort of lasted.
00:08:09
Speaker
What are you and the team, like, what are you all thinking about? and What are you seeing now? You spend a lot of time sort of looking at at demand, looking at revenue, helping to ensure that both public and private partners feel like there's, you know, the the expected value, I guess, I'm assuming from what you're doing.
00:08:26
Speaker
What are you seeing right now in terms of demand? what are you seeing right now in terms of how people are using systems? So, yes, absolutely. I mean, of course, the pandemic created a havoc in but almost all passenger rail services across the country. Intercity passenger rail for Amtrak's rear ridership and also urban transit. Most probably the urban transit got even hit ah harder than intercity um due to almost ah no commuting and things like that.
00:08:53
Speaker
So what we have been observing, um i mean, and over the last two three years is actually, um in most cases, the ridership recovery is very encouraging. um For example, especially in Intercity, mean, Antrec has recovered all its ridership and even more. So I think, you know, they are experiencing record ridership and revenue.
00:09:12
Speaker
um So that's very, very encouraging. Even many of the um urban rail system, rail services have um seen um you know quite a bit of recovery. For example, the MBTA, I mean, in Boston where I'm based, um it has actually um shown very remarkable ridership recovery in its um in its service.
Changing Ridership Patterns Post-Pandemic
00:09:34
Speaker
Having said that, I mean, some of those agencies have been more proactive and they have done great more innovative um you know service changes and things like that, and MBTA being one of the prime example, they have tried to move away from a commuter rail system to a regional rail system.
00:09:51
Speaker
um Instead of a peak day, one-directional um heavy services, they have ah come to ah a conclusion and then they've actually implemented it.
00:10:02
Speaker
of all the both directional service, for example. um So while the ridership has recovered a lot, in most cases, almost completely, um one one very important thing that has been observed is actually the ridership pattern has changed.
00:10:20
Speaker
So that's, I think, is is a very important aspect. um We are seeing definitely much more all-day movement as opposed to just peak movements. Of course, a lot of things have happened in terms of work-from-home environment. you know ah Many of the workers are still working, maybe not full-time, but some of their days working from home. So that has changed. And we have also seen quite a bit of increase in recreational leisure travel as opposed to really work travel because many of our clients don't you know even need to have us travel um for meetings and things like that.
00:10:59
Speaker
So ah that kind of movement in the um travel pattern has been quite significant. dominant um since and the COVID recovery has taken place. So the ridership numbers have gone up in most cases. However, the composition of the riders have changed considerably.
00:11:19
Speaker
It's not the same riders who are traveling um before pre-COVID as opposed to now ah in the post-COVID damp environment. That's really interesting. ah So, I mean, i i heard in there, Miserour, you know, nearly every component of the of the ridership market in passenger rail changing at some degree. um Who's riding, where they're riding, when they're riding, why they're riding.
00:11:45
Speaker
That's fascinating. What's the advice when you're talking to clients? and And feel free, tell me about, you know, one or two that maybe have a great story to tell. um What's sort of the advice and the partnership that we're able to bring, that your team's bringing in order to you sort of cut through that, right? How how how do you sort of plan for for life when it just, when it starts over from scratch almost?
00:12:10
Speaker
Yeah, absolutely. I mean, that's ah things have changed quite a bit, as we just discussed. So I think one of the main aspects of our advice right now is we have to go to a more and more to a data-driven solution.
00:12:26
Speaker
I mean, again, we were using data all the time before pandemic as well, but the need is even more. to really look at the current data post-pandemic situation. Because if you look at, I mean, in the past, know we're looking at you know data from three, four, five, six years ago, even in the past.
00:12:43
Speaker
But that doesn't work anymore, right? Because the post-pandemic situation has changed considerably. So from that perspective, we are definitely advising clients to the extent possible, to the extent budget is available, to go into collecting more and more data in the post-pandemic situation.
00:13:02
Speaker
Not only the ridership and revenue, of course, that is available, but in terms of their composition, as we just discussed on the travel patterns, in terms of their travel choices, so that whenever we are, for example, I'm i'm giving an example of ridership or demand forecasting here,
00:13:16
Speaker
looking at you know demand, we make sure that our choice is based on most recent up-to-date data, as ad-local data, as much as possible, um subject to, of course, budget constraints and time constraints and everything.
00:13:32
Speaker
So that is most probably the biggest um suggestion that we are giving our client, that you know we have to move away from the data, you know, the tried and trusted old data, we have to collect data, new new data.
00:13:46
Speaker
and and And the other thing is also um in terms of, um you know, with the you know advent of more and more computing power and stuff, um we are also trying to um do more, you know, um open source kind of work in terms of, you know, Python-based programming and things like that so the client can actually... um have it easy for them in terms of you know how to put it in the um in their own organization, how to use it in the future. So those kinds of modifications are also something that's going on.
00:14:18
Speaker
But I think the main focus is the post-COVID travel and environment as much as we can um replicate that in our day-to-day work.
Data-Driven Solutions for New Ridership Demands
00:14:29
Speaker
Thank you. So, if If I can, um you know, we talked a lot about, you were talking about, you know, that that the turbulence in the market now, even sort of rapidly evolving methods, new data, et cetera, ah that you've been at this game for a while, um you know, over the last, you know, 20 years or so, as you sort of reflect back You know, are we in a more turbulent time now than we were 10, 20 years ago?
00:14:58
Speaker
Is it just different? you it to You know, take us back maybe to, you know, when you started your career, what what was the world like then? And what were the types of problems that you were trying to solve then different or the same as they are now?
00:15:11
Speaker
Yeah, it's 26 plus years now, but yes, I would love to. You got me beat just by its head then. Yeah. So it's been a long time. I mean, in in general, I mean, you know, the the kind of work um we do, I mean, the problems are are similar. I mean, it's not that the problems has changed considerably.
00:15:32
Speaker
I think, as I said, the pandemic has thrown everybody, up you know, curveball after curveball. So that is where I think it's it's different in that sense that you have to really, i mean, I'll come back to that point again, make sure that the current solution to any problem that any client has is completely a data, you know, based solution and current database solution.
00:16:00
Speaker
I mean, in the past, when I started my work or or even before pre-pandemic, it was kind of steady state, right, for many, many years. um So you could actually even depend on earlier data, which you cannot anymore.
00:16:14
Speaker
um um it's been only We've been only maybe three years out of the pandemic, um not even that, ah maybe two full years. In some cases, i mean, maybe the steady state has not even been reached.
00:16:26
Speaker
ah In most cases, it has been, but in some cases. So that's, that's I think, that is the biggest situation, um you know, in terms of ah the clients to really plan their services, um to really make sure what kind of offerings they have on their passenger services, just to make sure that everything is completely oriented to the current condition.
00:16:48
Speaker
I mean, that is, I think, the most important point. um And and that's that's it, I think, you know. um But there are some also maybe some some changes in the focus from the clients.
00:17:00
Speaker
So, for example, umll I'll give an example of the business case, right? You know, 20, not maybe 10, 15 years ago, the award business case was most probably not even relevant in the U.S. You know, I would only be hearing it from our colleagues in the U.K., Oh, we do work in business case.
00:17:17
Speaker
I mean, but that that has changed. i mean, you know, in the US, for example, it's been very prevalent. Every agency, every client wants to really look at the case for investment, case for business case for each and every initiative that they take.
00:17:32
Speaker
Either it's service improvements or new service, you name it. Has that that that sort of focus on the business case, do do you, and in your mind, do you link that back to, you know, the more, ah you know, say the sort of the deeper involvement of the private sector or or with the lack of funding and the need to really sort of validate the ah ROI on any particular investment? is do you link those together or is it simply just how...
00:17:59
Speaker
you know how how we've sort of evolved on the, I'll say, the strategic and analytics side, you know the financial advisory side, compared to some of the technical tools that you were telling me about before? I mean, it's a bit of both, but I think it's more on the former, I guess, and know in terms of because the funding constraints are really push push putting a lot of pressure on on the project proponents, the clients and and public sector or private sector alike.
00:18:25
Speaker
So especially for public sector, for example, they really need to find out you know whether there is a case for it, I mean, for any investment or not, in a more thorough way, as opposed to ah just looking at it at a very high level in the past. So I think that is definitely driving that because, I mean, lot of projects, lot of things are really um competing for the same amount of funds that is available at their disposal.
00:18:51
Speaker
So as a result, they really have to make sure that there is a really a business case for ah one project over another. So I think that is mostly driving driving the um the change. or you know I mean, the change has been there for some
Mizrahar's Career Journey and Success Stories
00:19:06
Speaker
time now. It's not that it has happened in the last two years or so, but I think that is the main um idea behind it.
00:19:15
Speaker
Got it. ah Did you start your career in Boston? drink it I came here 29 years ago now to do graduate studies. And yeah, I mean, there's a bit of story there. I was doing my PhD, passed my qualifier, and... um Then I was completely burned out with all the you know pressure of the qualified examination and and research and everything. So I wanted to take a break and I went to my advisor and say, I need a break. And he said, fine, I can take a break for two, three years. So, I mean, I always wanted to do consulting um um just to take a look. And, you know, um and i I went to join another firm. Yeah.
00:20:00
Speaker
And I liked it and I never went back. So yes, it's been good. And never left Boston either. So yes, so 29 years and counting, 26 years in consulting and counting. So all in Boston.
00:20:14
Speaker
As you sort of reflect on those 26 and a half years, ah is there any particular project that comes to mind or even a couple that come to mind as just really sort of advancing you know where we are today? Anything that you're really proud of?
00:20:28
Speaker
I'll give two examples. One is what I just mentioned, that this whole Acela new fleet that were just um put into service, i mean, not fully into service, partially, um last year in the Northeast Corridor for Amtrak. So we actually worked on that in terms of making a case for that.
00:20:46
Speaker
And Amtrak actually submitted a loan application, the Reef Loan, um to FRA and the federal government. And um our ridership forecast was the basis of the drift loan application.
00:21:01
Speaker
So the fact that um the the Amtrak entity, I mean, they actually got the full farm rift that they wanted, the $2.4 billion. dollars ah which is the um highest ever in the reef loan industry, reef loan history.
00:21:16
Speaker
it was ah I mean, we were really liked the way you know it it just turned out. I mean, not only that the whole because the the whole reef loan was approved, but the fact that we are now seeing the new service into... um um coming into picture and I actually am planning to take it next to next next month ah when we are going. So I'll see it myself.
00:21:40
Speaker
The other one is Brightline West, another private sector. and you know Again, it hasn't come into fruition yet, but it's getting very close, we are hoping. So again, our our team's involvement and I was involved from the very beginning of that project back in 2010. It was one of my really early projects. you know I even went to the ah interview for that proposal. I mean, it has turned around quite a bit in terms of clients and staff because different entities have been winning that have been owning that project.
00:22:09
Speaker
um But, I mean, it is actually, hopefully, um it will break ground sometime soon, hopefully. I mean, we'll see. But it's moving in the right direction.
00:22:20
Speaker
So those, I think, ah are really the two ah really just to jump out because of their fruition in terms of you know implementation, in terms of seeing the success.
00:22:32
Speaker
That's amazing. I will say congrats on that. And and I will say that as ah as a proud person whose family rolls their eyes every time we ride a bus or a train that I had even a small part of, right? Like I i get i get really excited. I share it with them. And it is where they're, oh, dad, you know, what are you doing now? So, um you know, I want to hear about, I guess I'll i'll see you soon in New York. So I want to hear about that Acela ride and, you know Yeah, yeah, no, I am looking forward to it. Let's see. I mean, you know, I've been ah taking a seller for a long time and I'll be able to tell the difference between the old one and the new one. And I have heard some really good things about it. So I'm looking forward to it.
Future of Rail and Transit Industry
00:23:13
Speaker
ah Fantastic. Well, as we're about to close on our time here, i i would love if you just can can you leave us all with a a bit of reflection and maybe, you know, look forward, you know, what's what's getting you excited and motivated right now every day? And and where do you see?
00:23:29
Speaker
As you look in the next five to 10 years, where do you really see the rail and transit industry heading here in North America? I think there is a lot more focus on rail and transit than, let's say, when I started my career or when I kept in the U.S. s So, I mean, that is definitely very exciting in terms of More and more, um as we discussed, um you know private sector entities coming into the picture. More and more service to come into the picture. um More improvements in passenger rail sector that we are seeing. New technologies are coming into picture. What we have been had been seeing in Europe all along, which is still in Europe. I mean, again, we are not there yet, no question. But there are some very positive signs that you know we...
00:24:13
Speaker
are on our way, i mean, hopefully, um to to those kind of services that we see. I mean, again, we always know, I mean, the U.S. is a much bigger country, so we have to be very, um I mean, careful about, you know, where those investments take place, where actually, as as we just discussed, whether there's a business case or not for those. But,
00:24:35
Speaker
it is actually moving in the right direction with, of course, you know the funding issues and the current you know the current funding issues notwithstanding. I think we'll overcome these situations for, as you said, 5, 10, 15 years from now. I mean, hopefully we'll have a passenger rail system to be really proud of. um Again, when I say system, and of course, it will be mostly focused on regionally, most probably given the countryside. It will not be a nationwide system, especially when you talk about intercity or regional rail.
00:25:04
Speaker
Another thing I'm really excited about, you know, is just, ah I mean, part on a personal level, I mean, you know, the the colleagues I work with, I mean, you know, that actually really motivates me to come to work every day. I mean, I love working with the people that I do and I have been working.
00:25:18
Speaker
I've been with Steer for 17 years now. um So that is another, on a personal aspect, that something is very exciting. And I think, you know, this kind of current... hiccups in terms of fundings or current constraints that we are seeing, theres these are cyclical. I think it will it will change.
00:25:36
Speaker
um And people are already seeing the benefit of passenger rail. I mean, I'm talking about the just the passenger industry because that's where I operate. And I really feel, I'm very confident that um these constraints, these hurdles will be overcome. And, you know, in ah if we look at the intermediate long-term future of the industry, I think, you know, I am i'm very ah hopeful and um you know about this.
00:26:04
Speaker
Nice. Well, Ms. Rohrer, I'm excited and hopeful for that future too.
Conclusion and Hope for the Future
00:26:09
Speaker
i would love nothing more than to be riding more trains um as I dash around North America. ah I thank you for joining us today, sharing a little bit about yourself and where you see the industry going. And thanks everyone who was able to yeah listen or watch um episode two of Inside Steer, conversations with experts.
00:26:33
Speaker
um This is Ms. Roar Hazan and Herb Higginbotham signing off. Take care. Thank you all. Thank you, Herb.