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Ep. 23: What the Texas Primary Results Really Mean
86 Plays19 days ago
In this episode of Mission: Texas, we break down the biggest takeaways from the Texas primaries with Michelle Davis, substack writer of Lone Star Left, and David De La Fuente, Dallas political strategist and podcast host of Loserville.
We discuss the unexpectedly high Democratic turnout, why younger candidates are gaining traction across Texas, and what races revealed about where Texas Democrats may be headed next. The conversation covers the rise of James Talarico, the debate over competing strategies to flip Texas, surprise down-ballot results, and what the runoff elections may signal for the future.
We also examine whether Democrats should focus more on persuading independents and crossover voters, how messaging is changing, and why local organizing — from precinct chairs to multilingual outreach — remains essential if Texas is going to become competitive statewide.
In this episode:
- Why Democratic primary turnout surged beyond expectations
- What younger candidates are signaling about party momentum
- Surprise results in Dallas, Tarrant, and congressional races
- Competing theories for flipping Texas
- What runoffs may tell us about where Texas goes next
📲 Follow us on social: @missiontexaspodcast
❤️ Support independent Texas political media on Patreon
📩 Contact: missiontexaspodcast@gmail.com
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Transcript
Mission Texas Podcast Introduction
00:00:00
Speaker
Howdy. This is Mission Texas. A political podcast about winning Texas by 2032 or else we may lose the White House for a generation. I'm one of your hosts, Alex Clark.
00:00:13
Speaker
And I am Kate Rumsey. Other podcasts may focus on the day-to-day the next election. But we are keeping the eyes of Texas on the bigger prize. What happens after the next census?
00:00:27
Speaker
Welcome to Mission Texas.
Meet the Guests: Michelle Davis & David De La Fuente
00:00:28
Speaker
We have not one but two guests here today to help us break down the Texas primaries. Our first guest, you are probably reading her sub stack if you're a listener of our podcast.
00:00:39
Speaker
She is the writer of Lone Star Left. Welcome to the podcast, Michelle Davis. Thank you for having me, Kate and Alex. And I'm so excited to introduce my good friend, David De La Fuente, the Dallas based political operative who did not have any clients on the ballot this time around. Very important disclaimer.
00:00:57
Speaker
David and I go way back. Maybe the most important thing about David, it has a valid claim for being responsible for being married to my wife. He convinced her to go to a Texas College Democrats conference where we met.
00:01:10
Speaker
ah We were both running for statewide office that year. He was going to be the political director and I was going to be the communications director. And it's very good that we were unopposed because I ended up flirting with her that whole time.
00:01:22
Speaker
um Anyways, the next year he went on to become president and I was his vice president and he was one of my groomsmen at that wedding. So welcome to the pod, David. Oh, and also everyone, you should check out his podcast, Loserville.
00:01:34
Speaker
It's about the city of Dallas primarily. Yeah, it's ah our our podcast with Philip Kingston is about how neither one of us are good people versus like this is a mission based podcast. So I think your listeners get a little bit more out of it.
00:01:49
Speaker
Thanks a lot. Yeah. Well, I'm good friends with Phil. So tell him hello. We love supporting other writers and podcasters, especially on
Origin Stories: Lone Star Left & Dallas Politics
00:01:57
Speaker
this. But that's a little bit of your origin story. Michelle, we like to start all of our podcasts with everyone's origin story before we get into the meat of this podcast, which is about the primary. So Michelle, and then maybe David, tell us a little bit about how you got into Texas politics and also how you started writing Lone Star Left.
00:02:15
Speaker
Oh my gosh. You know, every time somebody asks me this, it's like the most boring story ever and the world. And I start telling it and just like I'm telling it now, everybody's faces glaze over and it's really not an exciting story at all. I just, you know. I love writing. i love politics. I've been in um Texas politics, you know, influencing space since like 2013. I started my blog in 2020. I rebranded to Lone Star Left in 2022. And that's just what I do. And it's my passion.
00:02:55
Speaker
If people knew you before a Lone Star Left, what would they have known you as? Living Blue in Texas. Oh, that's right. Okay. Yeah. We've been around quite, quite a while. Started on Facebook and just kind of branched out from there.
00:03:08
Speaker
and so David, and I knew you as an Austin college kangaroo and you were an SMU Mustang, but I assume you'd probably gotten involved in politics before then. Yeah. Yeah. I was always interested in politics. I grew up in Dallas in the city, specifically in like the North Oak cliff area, which is where I currently live with my wife and and two boys.
00:03:29
Speaker
I, again, like always interested. i was in high school during like the 2006 wave. So actually like went and knocked on doors with Judge Ernest West when he first ran for office. I knew his son because i went to elementary school and middle school and and even high school with him.
00:03:46
Speaker
And, you know, got ah got the bug then and like just kept on going, essentially. But it was amazing to, you know, be involved during that like 2006 wave for folks that aren't aware, like it is when Dallas like really turned Democratic, turned blue and hasn't really looked back.
00:04:06
Speaker
That's amazing. Yeah, I mean, I think people forget how far we've come in politics, especially in this area. So let's just like dive into the to the primaries. i want to get y'all's take. Like, what is the biggest thing that you saw or maybe was a surprise from the big turnout to the people who won?
00:04:25
Speaker
Michelle?
Texas Primaries and Progressive Wins
00:04:27
Speaker
I, you know, I don't think it was necessarily as much as a surprise as it was to me as it was to a lot of other people.
00:04:39
Speaker
So if you... you know, have really been paying attention to Democratic politics in Texas over the last few years. You might have noticed that there has been a rise of progressivism in Texas. um You would see it through, you know, the Democratic Party, you know, particularly like their platform.
00:05:01
Speaker
um They just elected a new progressive chair. In the last convention, they elected ah mostly a progressive SDEC board across across the SDEC caucus. I don't know what they're called, to the board.
00:05:20
Speaker
Chamber board. Yeah, board. um And, you know, you see this with, you know, different candidates coming up across the state. You see a lot of progressive candidates in this particular election.
00:05:34
Speaker
So i James Tallarico, know, he, I think, really spores. spoke to the the the progressive populism that we see you know rising in this state and that has been rising first for several years. We saw Taylor Remmet run on the same type of messaging um in Fort Worth just couple months ago and win like overwhelmingly 30 points, 33 points or something like that um in Tallarico run on the same message. um And when the white vote, the Hispanic vote, and then, you know, Jasmine Crockett, you know, such a big name and a progressive in her own right, both of them got more Democratic votes than anybody in history. And it it was just very, very, very exciting primary. And I think that we have a big, big year ahead of us. Progressive and young, I would point out. um Oh, very young. You mentioned Kendall Scudder, state party chairman, James Tallarico.
00:06:39
Speaker
ah These are contemporaries of me and David. I mean, we're talking about 36 year olds across the board here. yeah That's pretty, it's pretty amazing. Kind of our time Not my contemporary, apparently. Yeah, thanks. Look, wasn't going to point that out, Kate, but you know.
00:06:56
Speaker
But I'm just mean to say, mean, ah and and and and beyond that, ah Christian Carranza, one of our first guests down in San Antonio, Junior Isanu, beating a power player, Chris Turner. i mean,
00:07:08
Speaker
Yeah. Yeah. And that's, you know, that's actually my district that I live. Yeah. That I live in. So that was, that was an interesting race, but I mean, we, we are seeing a lot of like really young candidates, you know, in, in Texas 18, which I'm sure that we'll, we'll get around to talking about, um, with Christian Menifee and, you know, you're right because, um,
00:07:27
Speaker
I think James Tallarico is like 35, 36. Kendall Scudder is 35. Christian Menifees, you know, in his late 30s. So we are seeing a lot of like younger candidates come up. um Junior, I'm trying to think. Oh, in h d forty one in the border, Julio is a thing in the runoff, right?
00:07:49
Speaker
Right. He's in the runoff. He's very young. um So, i yeah, I mean, I would agree that they there ah there's a lot of youth energy in Texas right now.
Surge in Democratic Voter Turnout
00:08:00
Speaker
How about you, David? What's your big takeaway from the primaries? Yeah, no, I think... The massive voter turnout in the Democratic primary is kind of shocking. I don't think a lot of people really saw it at this level coming. I think we all knew was going to be higher than 2024, 2022, 2018.
00:08:16
Speaker
you know twenty twenty four twenty twenty two twenty twenty twenty eighteen But it really just skyrocketed in a way that midterm primaries typically don't ah especially in a state like texas i mean we're talking about the fact that there are you know hundreds of thousands of people that are probably dem leaning not strong partisans but dem soft dems dem leaning independence pure independence that did not vote in the you know bernie sanders joe biden elizabeth warren michael bloomberg primary back in 2020
00:08:56
Speaker
and then they decided to come out for James Tallarico versus Jasmine Crockett. That kind of midterm primary turning out at a rate much higher than a presidential primary, especially a contested presidential primary when the presidential nomination was still very much in flux is quite frankly, you know, shocking. um You know, I do think, you know, the surge in voter turnout is people that have historically voted in general elections, even some that have voted in Republican primaries before in the past.
00:09:31
Speaker
you know how much of that is you know alex can attest to this as i growing up in a place like sherman like how many of those past republican primary voters are democrats voting in local primaries versus how much of it is like actually converts like hard to tell at this point but like if you look at like a dallas texas like the amount of past republican primary voters voting in the stem primary was lower than what we saw in like the statewide average for instance, and it's because, you know, if you're an indie here, you're probably already possibly already voting in Dem primaries, you know, so so was interesting. The surge of new voters, i really only have data for Dallas, not so much the state, though others um ah like Derek Ryan have put that out.
00:10:18
Speaker
But between what I've seen from from Ryan and what I've done myself, it really looks like the surge was unusually young and young in voting tends to mean like under 50. in that sense, like we are a part of it, um you know, but like when the median primary or voter is like in their 60s, like the fact that the surge is happening, you know, in like the 20s, 30s, 40s ranges is a big deal.
00:10:47
Speaker
The surge was also disproportionately Latino and Asian. uh which is very interesting uh the latino and asian vote shares at least here in dallas county were their highest ever in a primary which i think is part of how james tallareco did so well in dallas county compared to a lot of the pre-election ah prognostications like actually alex i don't think we talked about this but look i gave a prediction of where i thought jaz jasmine crockett and james tallarico were going to end up in dallas county and i overestimated crockett by about five points yeah um or but i was closer to six um you know and i and i just
00:11:32
Speaker
Yeah, yeah. I just I thought she was going to do better here. But I also was like very clear as I was telling people was like, she's not hitting her wind margins in Dallas County. It was he very apparent by the end of early vote that she was in deep trouble in Dallas County. And it turned out to be deeper trouble than even I predicted. Yeah. And and to be clear, like there were Dallas County irregularities, but I don't think it could yeah make up five to six percent.
00:11:58
Speaker
I just wanted to quickly before we lost the thread here, you mentioned like people I grew up with in Sherman and and things like that. ah Just I can speak anecdotally. um Yes, I have had an in-law who has told me that to vote for The judges in his area, you know, he's voted in a Republican primary, so I can feel like he has some control over what's going on in his his professional life.
00:12:22
Speaker
um My brother, ah he donated to a political candidate for the first time. It was James Tallarico. ah You know, ah ah my my uncle, who i I know, like in my mind is like,
00:12:37
Speaker
default identity as conservative because he had like a Rush Limbaugh book at his house growing up. He told me he was so excited and thrilled to vote for James Tallarico. So I, at least anecdotally, I know that there are some things happening at the margins where people are, I don't want to say deprogrammed or they're showing off of the sidelines who maybe weren't engaged before, but it's just,
00:12:59
Speaker
It's hard to not think there is some of that going on with just the sheer volume of people um who are voting. And also, the like you said, the people who only had a general election history or maybe some Republican primary history.
00:13:12
Speaker
Let me
Why Did Voter Turnout Increase?
00:13:13
Speaker
ask this, though. What do you all make of that? Is it because we had such a strong choice in the top of the ticket? Do you think it's a referendum on Trump? Is it because we had somebody to vote for in every election, which we hadn't had in a lot of years?
00:13:28
Speaker
Is it a combination of all those things? Because I think as you're saying, David, that like I was paying attention to Tarrant County because a lot of my friends are running out there. i live close to Tarrant County, even though I'm in Dallas. And I know, Michelle, you were commenting on Chris Tackett's data he was putting out, the See It, Name It, Fight It.
00:13:45
Speaker
I think that's the name he was talking about, Tarrant County and the just surge of people coming out. And I think they were telling me that they saw a lot of people who were crossing over, like past our voters from a primary history or never had voted in a primary before. And they were wondering and just guessing, like, are these people that had a choice finally in Tarrant County? And maybe they had voted in but like Republican primaries before because they had a choice there and they didn't have one in the Democratic primary. So I'm wondering what y'all's thoughts are, especially Michelle, given the fact that you're in Tarrant.
00:14:18
Speaker
um I think that is definitely um part of it, ah because, you know, for so many years, like so many years, people have been, well, I vote in Republican primaries because there's never Democrat on my ballot and I just want to get the less of the crazies, you know, basically. And this is the first year we've had Democrats on the ballot in every single race, pretty much. And I would say most counties, even down to the judges and the commissioners,
00:14:50
Speaker
um So I would say that there's a lot of that going on. i would also say it's a referendum of Trump. And I would say also um that there's there's a lot of misconceptions about Tallarico, about, you know, and just a kind of what we were talking about before we got online, um you know, as far as, you know, what he is saying, his message, right? is he appealing to disenchanted voters for Trump or to moderates or, you know, or is he just using simple language? Is he just using language that everyday voters can understand? And I think that's what it is. think that Tallarico is definitely running on a progressive platform, but he's using language that, you know, everyday people with the
00:15:48
Speaker
average American being, you know, having a sixth grade education can understand and whether they're, you know, like I grew up a conservative, my family's been conservative. So that's what I've always been. Even though I've never voted in my whole life, I've just considered myself a conservative. You know, now I'm voting for Tallarico, that type of situation. Like we have to remember that there are millions and millions of people in Texas that have just never voted. I think that's also a big part of it too.
00:16:16
Speaker
David, what do you think? I think a lot of the increase in voter turnout was driven by Tallarico and Crockett, especially given that there were, you know, exciting down ballot candidates that, you know, were well funded, had grassroots support.
00:16:31
Speaker
But quite frankly, they are going to go and target past primary voters because that's what they should be doing and what we always do. And so this influx of new Democratic primary voters is probably driven by what they're seeing at the average person level, whether it be TV ads, social media presence, you know, on the ground stuff that they're seeing in their community between Tallarico and Crockett.
00:16:59
Speaker
And I think that is where we started to see some of the weird down ballot results, perhaps. like HD 101 is a great example of this where it's like there were two actually very solid candidates. Like Junior is going to be a great state representative as much as, you know, I think most Democrats in the state love Chris Turner and what he was down in the ledge. Like Junior is going to be great. Yeah, very impressive. Versus there are other down ballot primaries. Like I can name at least two in Dallas where I think it is kind of concerning, like who won. And like if you look at...
00:17:34
Speaker
how early versus election day versus mail broke out and like what precincts they want in and things like that. it looks like it was like the surge voters that possibly put them over the top. And, you know, obviously we all want more people voting, but it is kind of concerning that some down ballot races went in a way that probably isn't best for their communities. but Let's just get into it I know who you're talking about. Let's talk about it We had a very surprising result here in Dallas County. We have a new district attorney. Yeah, most likely, but yeah, probably. probably
00:18:09
Speaker
Probably. 99.9% chance she wins. yeah well to Before we get into that, I think just what we were talking about earlier is Chris Turner, who's been a long member of the state ledge. He is known as a mentor and party leadership. My friend, Cassandra Hernandez, who beat me in my race, she was telling me how much of a great mentor he is to a lot of them. And so that's a big surprise that not only he had a primary challenger with Junior, who was a Grand Prairie council member, but also that he won. You know, and I and I think when you're seeing these surprising results as we're getting into the DA's race here in Dallas, a lot of times I hear a lot of folks and it's sort of this old adage that when people don't know who to vote for, they'll vote for a female. And so, you know, you're seeing that result potentially in the DA's race. But with Junior versus Chris Turner, a very long standing member of the ledge, and then you've got a a member of the Grand Prairie League. It's like, well, you know, what happened there? And so is it informed voters or are people guessing like it's just hard to know. um i'm I'm assuming it's just informed voters. Maybe, Michelle, you'll tell us wrong, but ah differently. But I think that with regard to the DA's race, as we'll talk about, you know, you got John Cruzeau, long standing member of our party. He's been a DA for several terms, I'm assuming at this point, and he lost to what is potentially a problematic a judge who's got issues with allegations of like ethical issues, which i I'm assuming David Lowe is a lot more than me. um So anyways, i don't know if you guys have any thoughts on either of those races, but i wanted to make sure for our listeners, if they're not from the Dallas or North Texas area, they knew what that was about.
00:19:47
Speaker
Well, they both fit the model of the younger, more progressive, at least per percent perceived to be younger, more progressive option, right? Yeah. them I would say juniors is more like genuine, if if I'm being blunt. you know he is Yeah,
Chris Turner vs. Junior Isanu: Analyzing the Upset
00:20:01
Speaker
very authentic, ah very great presence online. he seems to really know what he's doing.
00:20:07
Speaker
so So for the 101 District, you know, I could speak to that, you know, because this is, you know, where I live. I know both these guys. Most of these races were very, very, very active. um Chris spent a lot of money, every other commercial, every other YouTube ad. I mean, he spent a lot of money on this race. And so did Junior. Junior had a fantastic ground game We had signs up, we had door knockers. Like, I mean, so I would say these were informed voters. um And, you know, like when you drove through my neighborhood, you know, somebody called me um a county chair, a friend of mine, a couple counties out. And she's like, how are you seeing any signs up? I'm like, yeah, all over my neighborhood. It's Junior Chris, Junior Chris, Junior Chris. And that's really how it was. Like, I thought this race could go either way. I think that in this case that demographics definitely played ah role. um So this district is like 25% white. And I think it's like a lot of people looked at Chris as like, you know, kind of,
00:21:17
Speaker
old shoe i mean no friends to chris everybody loves chris i mean he's the experienced older guy but i think like with this time um especially like with what we're seeing in washington dc with chuck schumer and hakeem jeffries there's this like overall narratives that we want like the old generation out and the new generation and And we want people who are gonna like really kick ass for new things because maybe the older people aren't fighting hard enough. And so whether that's true or not, that narrative was there. Um, and so I think that was a like a big, a big impact on this race for sure.
00:22:01
Speaker
Yeah. And then I want to be clear, like I didn't super follow this race. So like Michelle knows way more than I do. But one thing that did stand out to me also is that, as Kate mentioned, names on the ballot matter. So like in a place like Dallas,
00:22:16
Speaker
female names have like a huge built in advantage. And the same is true generally of names that show their ethnicity. um So, you know, Garza is a great example of that. Like if your last name is Garza, like you're going to do really well in heavily Latino precincts.
00:22:34
Speaker
junior is isanu his name is you know from recent african immigration and those names actually typically have a disadvantage so the fact that he was able to overcome that is very impressive Yeah, this might be a good time to talk about the TX 33 race and how I think Quintanilla outperforming our guest, Zeeshan Hafiz.
00:23:03
Speaker
To me, that was surprising. I don't know what you think about it you because you you you probably predicted this actually. I actually i texted a mutual friend of ours, Stuart, a few weeks before the election. and I was like, I think Carlos is finishing in dirt, like genuinely, because and especially as early votes started hitting.
00:23:23
Speaker
And it's like if you're going to see like a surge of Latino voters who are probably coming out for Tallarico, like if you if you look at like the data of like TX 33, the results, all that kind of stuff.
00:23:37
Speaker
They're probably coming out for James and they probably have not voted in Democratic primaries before. Like they they probably voted for Carlos. Like I'm digging into like precinct data at the Texas 33 level and trying to match precincts with total results and all this. Like I think Carlos Quintanilla cleared 40% of the Latino vote.
00:23:58
Speaker
So I love getting context for our listeners. Texas 33 is the redrawn 33. That was Mark Vesey, who then had Colin Allred, Julie Johnson, Zeeshan Haviz, and Keetania. And Michelle Davis, she endorsed Zeeshan. So I'd love to hear your thoughts, Michelle.
00:24:15
Speaker
ah We had Julie on. We had Zeeshan We asked Colin Allred to come on or reached out to his folks. Still welcome. He's still welcome. He's, but I'm wondering your thoughts, Michelle, because ah you were heavily in favor of Zeeshan.
00:24:29
Speaker
Yeah, what a disappointment that was. i Yeah, I don't, I don't know what happened, I guess. um If you don't have it, if you don't have ground game, you know, at the end, it's gonna, it's gonna matter.
00:24:42
Speaker
and i actually think it's like the opposite here because johnson and he's had ground games they had volunteers they had people going door to door ironically it was already finished in first that didn't really value any of that you know he he didn't do door-to-door canvassing for the most part they think it was nate name id yeah name id and the millions of dollars he raised in the senate race last cycle Yeah, because I mean, if you look at like the money raised and the money spent, Allred in the House campaign ah spent over $4 million, dollars ah but he only brought in $1.1 million.
00:25:23
Speaker
And that's because, as Alex mentioned, he was able to transfer all the Senate money over. So actually, one of the big questions for the runoff for me is Allred had all this money in the primary, massively outspent his opponents, but was extremely weak on fundraising once he switched races.
00:25:39
Speaker
He has the last FEC report pre-primary, the 20-day out report, showed that he had under a million dollars cash on hand. And I just I don't know if he's able to reload.
00:25:50
Speaker
versus Julie Johnson is a decent fundraiser, better fundraiser than Colin Allred is, chi like it it might be a runoff where Julie now has the financial advantage. Well, and for the special elections, the runoffs, it tends to bring out voters who vote consistently and in primaries and in runoffs, and those are very informed voters, they're very active voters, and they're not ones that are just going to be voting based on name ID, like knowing who Colin is. Maybe they didn't know Julie because it was a new district. And so I'm, I was making the case to some of our mutual friends because I support Julie. I'm very open about that, that it may help her in that kind of race because she can overcome that with a lot of deep roots because she is very well known and liked amongst the groups
00:26:40
Speaker
who may not be super happy with some of the things that she's always voted for or the things that she's aligned herself with in the past, but they appreciate that she's available to them, that she talks to them, that she comes out and supports everybody. And so I think that that will really be to her advantage and myself. It'll certainly be a different electorate. My question is, how does that electorate, because you're right, it's a different crowd that shows up. How is that going to play out in a race like Texas 18, where we have young Christian Menifee versus Al Green, who is like a longtime incumbent in this new seat that's been drawn in this crazy mid-decade redistricting?
00:27:17
Speaker
Yeah, so Texas 18, I mean, like, they are fried. They are frazzled. I mean, this is one district that has been through the ringer as far as special elections, like, over and over and over. So, like, we're talking, like, voter fatigue central for this district. So um anybody who is in a district that doesn't have a special election and, you know, has, like... extra time to do like phone calls or something and once an election to work on i would send my energy that way um but i think the um chutes and progressive caucus is getting behind christian menifee as they did um during the primary um and we'll help him out with like block walking and um
00:28:06
Speaker
phone banking and things like that. And that should put him over the edge. The Houston Progressive Caucus, um I don't know their member count as of like right off the top of my head. um They're very active in the Houston area and they've done a lot to help progressives get elected, um not only city, but also like in precinct. So my personal preference is hopefully they'll get Christian Menifee across the finish line. No shade on Al Green. I love Al Green, but you know, we, we definitely like, we want to see the youth. And and that is the distinction, right? Like platform wise, I don't know and a ton about the candidates, but I have to assume their platforms aren't like terribly different. Right. Yeah. But there's a huge difference in age.
00:28:54
Speaker
and And more than just wanting yeah youth and vigor, we've also seen the practical consequences of having older members of Congress, right? That's why partly why we're in this mess in the first place, right?
00:29:07
Speaker
Like, can I give some background for for those who might know? and And that's the thing, like with Texas at 18, you had Sheila Jackson Lee who passed away in that seat. And then they went a very, very, very long stretch of time before they got in Sylvester Turner. And then Sylvester Turner was in that seat for like a month. And then he passed away. Both so Sheila Jackson Lee and Sylvester Turner were like 80 years old. Incredible public servants.
00:29:35
Speaker
But old. We love them. You know, they were great public servants. They were, you know, fought for civil rights and they fought for a lot of things for Houston and they will forever be remembered as, you know, titans.
00:29:48
Speaker
But they died in office. And after Sylvester Turner passed away, Texas 18 went an entire year without representation. Then Menifee got elected. Then they read it read redrew the districts. Yeah. And Al Green decided, you know, let's let's run 18 with Christian Menefee. And so now they're running against each other.
00:30:10
Speaker
Exhausting. Just listening to it is exhausting. can't imagine living through it. Yeah. One and interesting thing for context is on the days that Sheila Jackson Lee and Sylvester Turner were born, Al Green was already alive.
00:30:23
Speaker
Al Green is actually the oldest of the three if all three
Christian Menifee vs. Al Green: Voter Fatigue & Redistricting
00:30:26
Speaker
were still alive. Wow. But he still has that, like, don't know, you still see him at the State of the Union and all the other things. Like, he's such a fighter. i don't know. i definite You're being kind, Kate. I will not be kind. I being kind. I am an ageist with a capital A it's to quote my one of my favorite comedians, ah Hasan Minhaj.
00:30:45
Speaker
Look, We have older listeners out there. We have older listeners, and I'm sorry, know, don't know that all of y'all need be running for office. But anyways, but I think it is an interesting, I'm sure they're all exhausted. I've seen it. I'm exhausted for them.
00:31:01
Speaker
maybe to pivot a little bit, what do you make of all the people who came in kind of last minute? for these statewide races and have kind of surprised us and outperformed like I'm specifically thinking of Marcus Vela's.
00:31:15
Speaker
And then, you know, Tony Box had a pretty good showing with the AG's race and threw it into a runoff. So I know, Michelle, you talked to a lot of those people, like, how are you perceiving those races as we get into the runoffs?
00:31:30
Speaker
Um, okay. So a lot of these races that came in at the last minute, um, like there was like an influx of like union people that came in the last minute. And I don't know if they came in together or they came in with Jasmine Crockett. I'm not a hundred percent sure. um so Tony box, I actually never got a chance to talk to him. I wish I did. Um, it just, um,
00:31:58
Speaker
never connected. i tried. um But we didn't we did wind up with a runoff and i actually predicted a runoff between Jaworski and Johnson. um i did endorse Jaworski.
00:32:12
Speaker
i Thought they would be a lot closer. um i um am surprised Johnson was as far as ahead as he was. um He does have a history of, you know, some more kind of middle of the road votes and donors.
00:32:32
Speaker
But I think Jaworski took kind of like a negative tone in his campaign, which kind of like kind of pushed some people kind of off. It was kind of like off-putting. So i will say it was the first time I had ever seen a negative yard sign.
00:32:49
Speaker
Yeah, I was in Austin. had a negative yard sign? I was in Austin on some professional business and i was getting a ride to where I was going and I saw a big yard sign for Joe Jaworski and then right next to it, it had like an attack ad style yard sign being anti Nathan Johnson. It was like very clearly like a duo that was together. And I was like, that's and that's a first for me. I've never seen anything like that. I've seen them in the Republican primaries. They're fun.
00:33:19
Speaker
I think that if Jaworski changes his tune and can focus on policy in the runoff, that he has a better chance. But if he remains like on the negative side, then probably Johnson will stay in the lead. um As far as the AGs or the lieutenant governor's race, I you know i don't know. it's It's hard to say because Vicky Goodwin, she's so...
00:33:47
Speaker
I would say, I wouldn't say like polished because I mean, like she's really, really good on policy and she knows her stuff. She knows policy and law in and out. And she's just very like matter of fact. And I think that she should get like a mohawk and like a leather jacket. I think that might, you know, spunk her up a little bit. She has a little bit of an edge is what you're saying. A little bit of edge. Yeah. yeah ah She has a 2018 seat flipper, which we appreciate.
00:34:16
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, no, I mean, like, she's she's really great. She's really smart. She really knows her stuff, you know, but she doesn't have the same type of, like, pizzazz that Marcos has, you know, if that makes sense. um But on the other hand, you know, Marcos doesn't know the legislator in and out. And, you know, and I'm not sure he can, like, recite laws right off the top of his head like Vicky can. So, you know, it's kind of like...
00:34:40
Speaker
The yin and the yang, you know, they'd probably be great. Like if they were the same person, like if you smushed them together. So I think it it it'll be interesting to see because they're just two very opposites and there's pros and cons for each.
00:34:56
Speaker
And I think those are our only two statewide. don't know, aren't they? Yeah. Well, you mentioned Jasmine. I mean, what did you make of her coming in at that point? Because I know having run before that there's a lot to be said of when you announce and when you decide to run and when you file and sometimes you want to lead time so you can, um, put other people away and say like, I don't, you know, try to like thwart other people to come in and you raise a lot of money and it kind of persuades others to not run. And yet she waited on the exact day. And I'm wondering, is it because she was trying to set up her successor or I don't know, like, I'm wondering what y'all's thoughts are on that.
00:35:35
Speaker
So I read and i I, I read a lot of, um, articles And I don't remember where I've read this now about what went wrong in her race. And one of the things that I read was that the reason she was so unprepared for this primary is that she expected to coast through it and have the real fight be in the general election. She didn't think that she had the, you know, serious challenge that she had with Tallarico and you know knowing that like it really kind of really makes sense if that was her mindset like oh it's Tallarico it's nobody it's not serious you know if that was her mindset then really kind of actually makes a lot of sense why things kind of played out the way that they did.
00:36:26
Speaker
I know. And I i read that she didn't have really a campaign manager. Is that right? I mean, I i read that. i read that as well. um Yeah. and And I don't I don't think that that she did. I personally reached out to her campaign several times in December. i was not successful, but I don't think that, you know, it's hard to run it. It's hard to run a campaign in Texas.
00:36:48
Speaker
It's really hard. And it's especially hard as a Democrat because we don't have a model of here's what it takes in the 21st century to run a successful campaign as a Democrat in Texas.
00:37:00
Speaker
So whatever it takes to win as a Democrat in Texas, you have to figure it out. You're starting from scratch. You figure it out. You got you can figure out by like looking at Republicans have done, try to figure it out that way, or just figure out a new model.
00:37:17
Speaker
you know And I think everybody's just kind of flying by the seat of their pants trying to figure it out as they go along. and she didn't get it right you know jasmine's defense i think she probably meant it whenever talariko called at the beginning of the the race and asked her if she was going to run for it i i think he probably wouldn't have run if she said yes at that point like you said like the timing of all this matters but in in jasmine's defense representative crockett right she she did not know she wasn't going to be representing her seat for another couple years i think she originally said she wanted to run against ted cruz
00:37:52
Speaker
The kind of circumstances outside of her control kind of left her in the political wilderness because her seat wasn't her seat anymore. ah But I mean, she she would have easily won that primary. i mean the the one where ah Reverend Haynes? Yeah.
00:38:08
Speaker
Yeah. Yeah. You know, I mean, like she set him up to walk into that seat. I don't know if that's why she waited until the last day to file, but her waiting until the last day to file meant that, you know, Reverend Haynes essentially got that seat for free, you know, without having a real primary.
00:38:25
Speaker
think he'll be a good member of Congress, but I mean, you know, there wasn't a primary there. kind of the model for how she got into her seat too right she was endorsed by eddie bernice johnson she endorsed there was ready haynes she had a challenger she had jane hamilton and that's what i was curious about like whether eddie bernice johnson gave them lead time or maybe she regrets the fact that she had a challenger in that race even though eddie got moment of runoff yeah so eddie bernice johnson did endorse her i believe officially and set her up but had a had challengers in that race
00:38:59
Speaker
yeah That's my curiosity of the timing of all of this. Yeah. there were there There was also, I mean, you know, Allred was running for Senate. He drops out on the last day, switches to Texas 33,
00:39:12
Speaker
You know, there was there was obviously like some things happening behind the scenes. And then obviously, like it is it is exceptionally strange from the federal level, like outside of Texas, that if you live in like Dallas, you essentially had a Senate and House primary occurring simultaneously where two sets of candidates essentially endorsed each other.
00:39:34
Speaker
Calarico and Julie Johnson were co-endorsing each other and Crockett and Allred were co-endorsing each other um as well. And that's Zeeshan in our interview pushed back on that. Actually, he he didn't he said there was never an official endorsement the other direction that Crockett never endorsed Allred.
00:39:52
Speaker
that That was just kind of assumed. Okay. Yeah. I mean, yeah, I guess you could, I guess you could claim it was not official, but it was also when you're doing, when you're doing press conferences, when you're doing joint press conferences and events, like, okay.
00:40:08
Speaker
But I mean, like Crockett, I mean, like, I think, you know, when she showed her team's polling to Allred and Tallarico, she was able to scare out Allred. She was not able to scare out tole rico I think their campaign kept the faith that they could turn the numbers around. I was quite frankly shocked how the Crockett campaign just did not take the primary election seriously until it was essentially too late. They let Tallarico go up on TV and other paid media essentially unanswered for
00:40:42
Speaker
four weeks or so which is crazy i mean it's it's it's not what any real campaign structure would do especially when crockett had five million dollars plus like this is not a case like she's an exceptionally strong fundraiser She had a lot of money, ah you know cash on hand.
00:41:01
Speaker
And I'm really curious you know how much money during the next f FEC report she's going to report on hand. like How much did they leave in the bank unspent because they just did not really see Tallarico as a threat?
00:41:15
Speaker
um And I think, you know, to the point that Michelle has made earlier, like Tallarico's campaign was about ideas and they had an extreme message discipline.
00:41:27
Speaker
You know, like I think all of us could tell you the 15 second Tallarico pitch. Crockett, even if you love her, there was no 15 second pitch. There was no 15 second message as to why she was running. And I think that is probably what did her in combined with the fact that, you know, again, Tallarica was up on TV early.
00:41:48
Speaker
He had volunteers doing normal volunteer stuff like harassing me and my wife via text message to vote for him, which is not Robotex. Like it's like the volunteer text. um you know, had robust mail and the Crocker team just did not feel like they needed those things. Also felt like they had different, if you just put aside everything else, like messaging, their bio, that they had competing theories of how to flip the state. And they're trying to say like, I'm going to win and vote for me because I have this theory and I'm going to be the best candidate for that theory. What were those theories? And I'm wondering, how do you guys come down? Because ultimately, this is a podcast about flipping Texas. And so we want to flip Texas in the ledge. We want to flip Texas statewide. And so ah how did you perceive both of their competing theories to flip the state and which one do you believe is actually the winning theory?
00:42:41
Speaker
I just wanted to add real quick before before your to theories um that I was redrawn into Texas 30. And so with it Pastor Freddie Haynes, I'm actually tickled to death that that's going to be my new congressperson. Like thrilled, like ecstatic that that's going to be my new congressperson. So i just alluded to I, on the other hand, was redrawn out of a Democratic seat and am now represented by Lance Gooden.
00:43:12
Speaker
Oh, well, you have a Democratic runoff. And actually, I think that suit might be flippable this year, but we'll see. We'll see. Okay, so theories. So the theories were that Jasmine um Crockett could either get people who were like the low propensity voters to show up, meaning like people who are registered to vote, but just basically don't ever show up and Tallarico was the people who are independents or are disenchanted. So maybe like the Hispanic voters, like maybe actual swing voters. And I think that that kind of goes back to what we were talking about earlier, like who he's talking to, like, you know, some of the crazier people on our side or like when Tallarico says it's
00:44:03
Speaker
not left versus right, is he saying, oh is this going to be a coalition with us today? me and you and all of the Nazis, or is it going to be a coalition with us and maybe like the independents or like the Hispanic voters who voted for Trump in 2020, but voted for Hillary in 2016, but voted for Obama 2008 or whatever. Like, are those like really actually swing voters? Are Hispanic swing voters in Texas?
00:44:42
Speaker
That's a possibility. And I don't know which one of those work. i don't I don't know which one of those work because i feel like we've tried them both in Texas. It's like we've tried them both.
00:44:57
Speaker
We failed both. But it's a different year. It's a different message. It's a different candidate. So we'll see. Yeah. David? Yeah, I mean, i know we mentioned like SD09 earlier in the podcast and, you know, Taylor Remitt won on his message, his vision, etc. But if you look at the electorate who voted in that special election runoff,
00:45:22
Speaker
essentially one out of every two voters had voted in a past Republican primary. Like even the Republican, you know, consultants and data experts in Texas were, you know, waving the freak out flags afterwards saying like, Remit probably won, you know, 10% plus of Trump voters who showed up and he probably won close to 20% of past Republican primary voters.
00:45:50
Speaker
um And so I think that is a good example of theory of the case that James Tallarico was presenting. i think it's the more credible path out of the wilderness.
00:46:02
Speaker
In terms of what you talk about, how you talk about it, I think that is for debate. i think you know, Tallarico running like an economic populist campaign while also, you know, really throwing the Biden administration's failures on border security under the bus a smart theory of how do you actually get these Texan voters to vote for you.
00:46:27
Speaker
um you know by talking about cost and taking on corrupt interest but then also you know being a different type of democrat than the ones that they hate in dc like the average you know voter in texas um So is Tallarico the one to deliver that
Strategies for Flipping Texas
00:46:47
Speaker
victory in November? I think it's still, you know, to be seen. i think it's still an uphill battle, but the theory of the case is valid. But obviously, you know, we did see this huge surge of new primary voters in the Democratic primary in the state.
00:47:02
Speaker
Again, vast majority of them are past general election voters. like they probably voted in the 2024 general. I actually haven't put those numbers in yet, but i we know they voted in the past general elections in general or you know and in in overall you know whether it be 20 22 24. uh we know that for a fact um and getting those people to vote in primaries is very hard uh very impressive but it's a different beast than going after registered voters who just
00:47:34
Speaker
don't vote um at all. and And getting those people is probably going to be a task too great to accomplish. and And so going after like the remit strategy of winning over some of these disenchanted Trump voters, whoever they may be, you know, disenchanted past Republican primary voters, generally, they're going to be independents, they're not going to be, you know, Republicans, like, that's a fool's errand. But these, you know,
00:48:06
Speaker
moderate center left center right ideologically idiosyncratic indies or or who will deliver texas for either party that's right and something taylor retman always said is that he wasn't running against republicans he was running on and for working class issues and i think that's the model at least when you look outside of texas the kind of people who win in places that trump also wins Right, like your governor, Andy Beshear from Kentucky, your senators, Mark Kelly and Ruben Gallego, your senators, Raphael Warnock and John Ossoff, et cetera, et cetera, Alyssa Slotkin in Michigan.
00:48:42
Speaker
has nothing to do with race or gender. um It's kind of like approach, right? And it's something we talk about a lot is that the Democratic Party brand is in the toilet right now, like shockingly, appallingly unpopular when it's pulled. And we also at the same time are seeing probably not unsurprisingly, the highest percentage on record of self-identification of but of independence. Like 45% of the country identifies as independent, 27% each for Democrats and Republicans.
00:49:12
Speaker
And so I think any approach that just doubles down on I'm a Democrat loud and proud, or I'm just going to stick it to the Republicans, or I'm just going to stick it to Trump is is not going to be a broad enough coalition.
00:49:25
Speaker
My personal bias, yeah but putting it out there. Alex has won me over on that that point. um Good. Well, ah leaving on a high note there, Alex, should we switch gears? Yes.
00:49:40
Speaker
I think it's important um yeah that we're not always so negative. As Texas Democrats in particular, we're the most negative bunch in the country. um We need to have more optimism. We need to get more comfortable sharing good news in the the sense of like ah the missions of Texas. People had to go and spread the gospel, share the good news.
00:49:58
Speaker
So something we like to do on our podcast is get that that muscle ah some reps. So what is something personally or professionally, anything in the world that you've seen, some good news you would like to share?
00:50:11
Speaker
Good news. Alyssa Simmons won the judge's primary race, Democratic primary race for Tarrant County, which is my county.
00:50:25
Speaker
So that's the most exciting thing that's happened in all of Texas. um So. and So she she gets the honor of taking on Tim O'Hare. You can see on there taking on O'Hare. Talked about this on our episode with ah the Tarrant County Democratic Party Chair, Allison Campolo.
00:50:42
Speaker
um From here until November, my number one campaign focus is not Tallarico. It is Alyssa Simmons. So goes Tarrant. So goes the Texas. So goes the country, right?
00:50:55
Speaker
Yes. I will come out there and block walk against him out here anytime. so Yes. is Timmy's got to go. He does. David, you got any good news? Yeah. ah This past weekend, i take my boys that are three and almost two years old to barbecue around ah Dallas metro area frequently, trying new spots, going back to old favorites. We tried coffee barbecue out in Irving.
00:51:24
Speaker
for the first time ever. it's ah and It's from a pit master who's an Iraqi Texan. And you see it in some of the dishes, but it it is like a good, it's it's a fun mixture of traditional you know, traditional brisket, but then, you know, like Iraqi-inspired, like, sausages and some sides and all that kind of stuff. It's halal, so you see, you know, kind of the Irving or Northwest Dallas County Muslim community in there a lot as we were there for lunch, and it was Roy...
00:51:58
Speaker
I mean, quite frankly, you know, inspiring and cool to see that kind of blending of traditional Texas culture being updated with some of the recent immigrant community that is becoming Texan, but enhancing what Texas means. And it was it was amazing. Like the pit master was like so proud, like going to like every table and asking folks what they thought of his food and a restaurant and At a time when the country, because of the federal government, is really cracking down on immigrants and people that look like they might be immigrants. It was it was nice to experience something like that here in the Dallas area in Irving. The food was exceptional.
00:52:41
Speaker
I'm to remember that. Well, Alex and I have some good news to share. We are finally opening up a Patreon. So that is a bit of a self-serving good news. but we we are self-funded, we're independent, and we have opened up a Patreon account. And we already have a lot of members and supporters there. And so we ask our dear listeners, if you want to help us out a little bit, help pay our editor, Juan Jose, who we love dearly, also an immigrant,
00:53:06
Speaker
Went to North Texas. he We love him and he's probably editing this right now. But if you'd like to help us defray the cost of this podcast, please join us over at Patreon and become a member over there where you can, ah for $5 a month, you become a member. Yeah, All right. I'll just ah make my good news about spring break. I'm very excited. I've never been to ah Great Wolf Lodge before, but I'm taking the kids and ah my best friend from law school and his family is going to join us as well. Fun fact, everybody, look look forward to your next spring break or whenever you want to go to Great Wolf Lodge. If you book it out well in advance, you get like 50% off.
00:53:41
Speaker
and so I love it. I love a good deal. Very scrappy that way. right. Well, that is our good news. Now we're going to wrap up into our last word. We give our guests the last word on what it's going to take to flip Texas. We talked a little bit about it earlier, but we are a long form podcast talking about this long term strategy to flip the state, the state legislature, the statewide races so that we can be prepared for the next census and the redistricting that we have coming down the pike. So ah we started with Michelle earlier. Maybe we'll start with David now. like What do you think?
00:54:11
Speaker
that we need to be doing here, whether it's messaging, whether it's turnout, who we're turning out, what kind of candidates, like what do you think it will take to flip this state? It will require Texas Democrats being willing to message to the types of voters that have become more open to voting Democratic in states like Georgia and Arizona.
00:54:36
Speaker
Whether they be, you know, the growing Latino or other immigrant community or the influx of, you know, white voters moving from other parts of the country into the or metro areas here in Texas, um I think Texas Democrats compared to a lot of other purple-ish light red states, whatever you want to call it, are arguably a little skittish to talk to anyone other than who's already in our corner um in a way that a lot of our other state counterparts aren't. And I think doing so meaningfully is necessary to see significant movement in the state.
00:55:19
Speaker
Michelle, what do you think? To flip Texas, I think that we need all hands on deck. um We need more precinct chairs for sure. um We need messaging in every language, not just English and Spanish. We need multi languageguage multilingual messaging, Vietnamese, Chinese, like everything. We need every campaign working Year round weekends, no days off.
00:55:50
Speaker
We just, yeah, like I said, we need all hands on deck. I know we learned in many of our episodes that we have less than half of our state has precinct chairs. And it was made the case by John Turner, former a representative, that we need to be messaging between campaigns, not just as we gear up for these primaries. So um both very valid takes. So thank you for your last word. Thank you for joining us, David and Michelle. That's our wrap up of the primaries. I'm sure we're going to have many other episodes about the primaries as we are heading into the general election. But we thank both of our guests for joining us. And we will sign off by saying God bless Texas.
00:56:25
Speaker
You can follow us on all socials at Mission Texas Podcast. Email us at missiontexaspodcast at gmail.com. This episode is edited by Juan Jose Flores.
00:56:36
Speaker
Our music bumper is by Adam Pickerel, and our cover art is by Tino Sohn.