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Ep. 25: Luke Warford and the Agave Fund
55 Plays3 days ago
This week on Mission: Texas, we sit down with Luke Warford, founder of the Agave Fund and former Democratic nominee for Texas Railroad Commissioner, whose 2022 run turned heads nationally. Luke breaks down why 2026 may be the perfect storm for Texas Democrats, what down-ballot candidates can learn from the Senate primary, and how the Agave Fund is building the infrastructure that actually wins elections.
In this episode:
• Luke's origin story: from the Obama campaign to Texas Railroad Commissioner to the Agave Fund
• The four conditions that make 2026 a potential perfect storm for Texas Democrats
• What down-ballot candidates are doing right in 2026 compared to 2018
• The attention economy, viral campaigning, and what Zohran Mamdani's rise tells us about modern politics
• What the Agave Fund is doing to solve the campaign manager shortage
• The SD-9 special election as a blueprint for statewide contrast messaging
Follow Luke and the Agave Fund:
agavefund.org | @LukeWarfordTX on X | Texas Public Opinion Research on Substack
Support Mission: Texas:
Become a member at patreon.com/missiontexaspodcast
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Subscribe here and leave us a five-star review
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Transcript
Introduction to 'Mission Texas'
00:00:00
Speaker
Howdy. This is Mission Texas. A political podcast about winning Texas by 2032 or else we may lose the White House for a generation. I'm one of your hosts, Alex Clark.
00:00:13
Speaker
And I am Kate Rumsey. Other podcasts may focus on the day-to-day the next election. But we are keeping the eyes of Texas on the bigger prize. What happens after the next census?
Guest Introduction: Luke Orford
00:00:26
Speaker
right, this week on Mission Texas, we have the founder of the Agave Fund, a fund that is investing in sustainable democratic infrastructure in Texas, something and that I think that we're interested here on this podcast. You may remember him from his viral statewide run for railroad commissioner in 2022, or his recent commentary on various news channels. Welcome to the podcast, our friend Luke Orford.
00:00:50
Speaker
Hey, good to be here. Welcome, welcome. We got a lot to talk about with you, Luke, including what happened in the primary, what's going forward. But what we like to ask all of our guests before we do all of that is a little bit about your origin story. Alex and I benefit from having known you a little bit as a friend, but how did you get involved in politics? What was like leading up to your race and then help us understand the Agave Fund, for example, like was it an answer to a problem that you saw in your history in Texas politics? So what's your origin story? Thank you.
Luke Orford's Political Journey
00:01:21
Speaker
Yeah. So, I mean, the origin story of like my involvement in politics goes back to being like 10 and 12 years old and political TV always being on in my parents' house, right? Like we would, it was it was either, you know, MSNBC or CNN or whatever, but my parents were always talking about politics. And my mom ran a preschool. My dad was a small business owner. They like weren't super involved, but they were really aware of what was going on all the time And so I think even starting at a young age and, you know, it was, I was 12 when 9-11 happened, then the Iraq war, like sort of coming into political consciousness during the Iraq war, like it, it was really clear that politics mattered and I've just been a person who has cared about politics. politics for a long time.
00:02:09
Speaker
And so few different things throughout my career, including like working as an organizer on the Obama campaign in 2012. That was my first political job. It was it was incredible. But moved to Texas in 2019 and like immediately wanted to get involved in politics here and got a job at the state party, spent a couple of years there.
00:02:30
Speaker
eventually ran for Texas Railroad Commission and then came out of running for Railroad Commission and was basically talking to a bunch of folks who had supported my campaign about what the different challenges were and like what in particular what are the challenges that down ballot candidates face right and think one of the things we saw is that as a down ballot candidate you're really like starting from scratch a lot of times every year. like How do you find staff? How do you start to find a donor base? How do you build a social media profile?
00:03:01
Speaker
All of these things that are so core to running a successful campaign and and people really just are are you know, having to build the plane as they fly it and start from scratch each year.
00:03:13
Speaker
And so I think fundamentally the problem that Agave is trying to solve, and we run a bunch of different types of programs, but fundamentally we're trying to solve the problem of supporting, you know, talented candidates and elected officials and giving them the resources they need to to be able to be successful and actually go out and win in Tunk Races.
00:03:34
Speaker
I just want to note for our listeners that ah Luke graduated college a year for me before he jumped on that Obama campaign. But no one would guess that he was older if they looked at two pictures of us side by side. I'll take a picture of us. You still have this useful exuberance about you. And I've got the gray beard.
00:03:52
Speaker
but I'm jealous of the beard. My brother went gray at like 22. And i've always been I've always been jealous of him. I think it looks so distinguished. it's It's so hilarious to look back at my time in law school because I enter completely dark beard.
00:04:06
Speaker
Yeah. Like 1L, like a little bit of specks in the chin and then 2L and then three l And it's like, maybe it's the whole practicing law thing. that's what Stress will do that to you, I think. I'm not a so i'm you know not a scientist, but I think stress will that you. And you were you were humble. ah you You weren't just at the state party there for a minute. You were the chief strategy officer. can you tell us about that?
Challenges and Strategies in Texas Politics
00:04:30
Speaker
Yeah, so my job, I joined the state party in 2019 and in the 2020 election was in charge of voter registration and vote by mail at the party and ran pretty significant vote by mail and voter registration programs.
00:04:46
Speaker
But then also ended up in this role where I was just being a little bit of a jack of all trades, trying to solve problems as they emerge. And so that you know that was during COVID.
00:04:56
Speaker
And so that meant we ended up, I ended up spending a bunch of time on on two things. One is digital fundraising. And we actually worked with, this was like early in the days of of Twitter fundraising. And you could get people with big accounts to tweet a donation link and and people with hundreds of people would give you money. It was wild. I mean, that doesn't work now the way it used to work.
00:05:19
Speaker
But we ran these viral fundraising campaigns and on Twitter, basically getting a bunch of folks to tweet like turn Texas blue. And then we did a Seinfeld reunion fundraiser and raised a few million dollars for the state party, which is pretty significant. and you know all in grassroots money. And so that was one thing I worked on. And then in the final stretch of the campaign, you know, everybody shifted to GOTV. And again, it was COVID.
00:05:46
Speaker
And so we actually set up phone banks that we were running called Dance and Dial. And like, literally everyone's at home, it's COVID. and we incorporated dance, like like dance breaks into the phone banks, just because we were trying to make them fun and like, build a little bit of a sense of community.
00:06:05
Speaker
um And so for the final month of the campaign, we were essentially running a three hour phone break, bank, a 30 minute break, a three hour phone bank, another 30 minute break, like like nine you know like nine hours of phone banking a day with hundreds people on the dialer.
00:06:20
Speaker
Combat cabin fever. Yeah, it was right. Exactly. And it was it was fun. i mean We built a real like community around it, which was really cool. And so started doing that work and then became the chief strategy officer there, which which essentially meant like I continued to play a special projects role, but was doing a bunch of of fundraising and strategy work and figuring out how to keep building the state party.
00:06:45
Speaker
in 2021. So, you know, it gave me a really good understanding of, I think, the democratic ecosystem and and what works and where we, you know, how we can keep building it.
00:06:56
Speaker
On the presidential level, I mean, it's kind of the high watermark was the 2020 election, right? Like Biden came like five points away. Yeah, five five and a half. I mean, ah so like I just imagine like if if Republicans had come within that kind of margin in California or New York, that many electoral votes on the line.
00:07:17
Speaker
they would smell blood in the water and they'd be just all in. I can't imagine Republicans being like, oh, California or New York, that's too expensive. We don't want to bother with that.
00:07:28
Speaker
But yet we have that problem in Texas when we're a much bigger prize than New York, at least. Yeah, mean, I think you're totally right. And about to be a bigger prize in 2030. Well, I think that's the point, right? It's the whole point of our podcast, yeah.
00:07:43
Speaker
but Exactly, the whole thesis of the show. It's like Texas is getting more important, right? Post-20, mean, your audience obviously knows this, but post-2030, the electoral college map gets way worse, right? Texas is going to pick up, as guys know, four electoral college votes. Maybe five. actually Yeah, maybe five congressional seats as well.
00:08:02
Speaker
um And I just think the importance of the state is only growing. And and folks are waking up to that, I think. like are The existence of the Agave Fund, the amount of funding that Texas Majority PAC is getting, like there's there's initiatives that are you know an indication of national recognition of the importance of the state. And honestly, I think the amount of money that that James Tallarico has been able to raise as a Senate nominee is staggering, right? Like he's out raising most sitting U.S. senators as a state rep.
00:08:35
Speaker
I cannot tell you the name of state reps from basically any other state. And we've got hundreds of thousands of people giving to to James's campaign. And i I just think it is there is a recognition of of Texas as a really important state.
00:08:49
Speaker
I think the flip side, though, and explain why people haven't maybe invested, I think there is a like tendency just psychologically to focus on the the fire in front of you,
Long-term Investment in Campaigns
00:09:00
Speaker
right? The most urgent thing.
00:09:02
Speaker
And that's how national Democrats have behaved. And um i think that's unfortunate and short-sighted. But the The argument that I always make is like, we should... And one of the reasons, honestly, that we're called the Agave Fund is because we're thinking about investment and investment mindset.
00:09:19
Speaker
And the pitch I always make to donors is like, okay, and you can spend 90% of your money on immediate burning priorities. But like any smart investor is going to have 10% of their investment going to these longer term, like higher risk bets. But if wow, if they pay off.
00:09:40
Speaker
And I think honestly, like a lot of the folks that give us money, the idea is, hey, we want to make Texas better, obviously. But I do think there is a sense, especially from any national investment we're getting, we're not sure this is going to work. But imagine if it does, just like it's game over. And um that's worth ah that's worth investing in And I think we're we're seeing that, you know, the culture around supporting Texas work from national folks is is changing.
00:10:10
Speaker
Not as quickly as it's done, but it's definitely changing. I remember when I ran in 2024, I was asking, where's all the national money? Where are the national parties? Where are people coming to help us? And the message I was getting from people here was that they wanted to see us get our shit together a little bit more for a lack of better word. And that we needed to show them that we are stepping up and it's not just them coming to save us. But it feels like There has to be some a little bit of both. Alex often talks about his Obama days yeah and you talking about it and how we had a national primary here and a national presence, and which we have not really felt since. And you wonder where where the national people, strategists, and consultants, any national candidate who comes into town. And the last person I remember that we all probably thought about was Kamala when she came through Houston. and it doesn't seem like that's coincidence that she was coming through Houston and also was thinking about that. And Gavin Newsom has been here several times, yeah including recently. So it just feels like, yeah, I think that there is some amount of like groundswell of people thinking about Texas and not writing us off.
00:11:18
Speaker
And I wonder your thoughts on whether the primary and being so contested helped in that and that we are showing two very capable candidates that And that they are both nationally recognized. Well, at least Jasmine probably. And then James kind of like up and coming, especially with like Colbert and all these other interviews.
00:11:36
Speaker
I would also just quickly note that Wes Moore and J.B. Prisker have also made their pilgrimages to the great city of Dallas. That's right. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I think i think we're seeing a bunch of national folks come to Texas. um I think the question is, are they coming here to fundraise? Because Texas has always been a donor state, right? where Our money's going out. It's not coming in. And and that's my frustration is like,
00:11:58
Speaker
Yes, nationally, like among the activist class, I think there's a growing recognition and there's a lot of grassroots money coming in to James, right? Like a lot of his donors are $100 or less. Totally. um My frustration is not only for James, but even in races like John Rosenthal, who's running for the same seat you did, right? ah For Railroad Commission.
00:12:18
Speaker
Like there's a sense of like, well, From from D.C. and New York Democrats and and elsewhere, like the kind of more institutional givers are like, we'll see if Paxton becomes a nominee.
00:12:30
Speaker
We'll see if Beau French is the nominee for railroad commissioner. Then we'll be interested. It's like, well, I see what you're talking about, but. The most strategic time to bring in the money is as early as possible.
00:12:43
Speaker
like I get really upset about the 2018 race and knowing how half of Beto's historic haul was like in the last several weeks of the camp. Yeah, like yeah. Like the last month.
00:12:54
Speaker
Which is not the most effective way to to obviously deploy resources. And speaking of Kamala coming to Houston and having ah ah an amazing rally of Beyonce. Beyonce endorses Beto on like on Election Day. Yeah. Yeah. Could have had that on early vote. That would be great. Yeah. Yeah, for sure.
00:13:11
Speaker
Love you, Beyonce. But come on. um So I think there's a ah few things, right? One is um to Kate's point about Texan people wanting Texas money to move first versus national money.
00:13:25
Speaker
The reality is when you look at the numbers, there is no swing state in the country. And um obviously, Texas is bigger than a bunch of these states, so it's not a perfect comparison. And there is no swing state in the country where the majority of their political money is coming from within the state.
00:13:42
Speaker
And just to use that as a slightly outsized example here, the Wisconsin Democratic Party, Wisconsin, obviously, a huge swing state, and the Democratic Party is not obviously the whole ecosystem.
00:13:54
Speaker
But 97% of the money that goes to the Wisconsin Democratic Party is coming from out of state. So you've got national Democrats who are very seriously investing in the Wisconsin Party, right? And they are...
00:14:12
Speaker
saying they understand this is an important country you take place and it's a place they should be spending money. So i I think it is a little bit of a double standard, like, oh, well, Texas has to pay for itself, et cetera.
00:14:25
Speaker
I think the question is, do you want to win or not? And is Texas as part of your vision for how we win the congressional majority or how we how we you know get have the 270 electoral votes, especially after 2030?
00:14:42
Speaker
twenty thirty I do think, though, that there's a huge amount of excitement in Texas. And despite some folks being frustrated, think we're seeing it with the Senate primary right now.
00:14:55
Speaker
that people are excited. 2026 is different. This is you know set up to be one of the best years that we have as Democrats since 2018, for sure. And i do think having, you know we saw it in early vote numbers, or in in primary turnout numbers,
00:15:12
Speaker
The excitement with James and Jasmine both running, you know we have two of the most effective communicators that we have in our party, not just in Texas, but across the country, right?
00:15:23
Speaker
If you want to be a successful candidate in 2026, your ability to get attention online and your ability to fundraise digitally are hands down of the most important things. And both Jasmine Crockett and James Calarico had incredible capacity in that regard.
00:15:39
Speaker
And so I think the amount of excitement, the amount of turnout we saw, the amount of national attention on the race all speaks to that talent that we had in the Democratic primary. And i think it also speaks to 2026 being a little different and people understanding that the conditions are are right for maybe an upset here in Texas.
00:15:59
Speaker
which we were very excited about. yeah i So I wanted to follow up on that because ah we mentioned it early on, your viral ad that went for your railroad commission. It seemed to be that that was on the heels of your work in the Democratic Party. You mentioned earlier about you know ah digital digital advertising, getting out and doing viral moments with Seinfeld or whoever. Was that ad that you would put out in answer to that, like something that you had learned? And then also, like, how do you reflect on what's going on in content creation now, you know, four our years later, because we saw a lot of that.
00:16:33
Speaker
And it was extremely at play here in our primary. In 2022, especially running for a race like Texas Railroad Commission, where... The majority of Texans don't know what the race is. It's not super high on donors' priority list.
00:16:48
Speaker
Attention really was the name of the game. And the first ad was really early in our campaign. We put it out when um when I was launching. And it's not cheap to make an ad like that. right like That was a real investment that we made.
00:17:04
Speaker
And a bunch of the advice that I was getting was like, oh, don't spend your money on that. There's no reason to do that. And our like the thesis there was like, OK, we have to get
Role of Social Media in Campaigns
00:17:14
Speaker
attention. We have to break through in order to have any chance of voters knowing who we are, donors knowing who we are.
00:17:21
Speaker
in Looking back, like that was one of the best political decisions I made during the campaign. like that Investment. Right. That ad continues to be an asset. like I mean, literally, ya it's it's this is it's four and a half years later y'all are bringing it up. People still come up to me and are like, oh my God, I love your Texas Railroad. You're that guy. Yeah. You're back from that one ad. Does anyone ever be like, you know, you look a lot like that guy from that ad. yeah like love seeing online people do that to Tony Hawk.
00:17:53
Speaker
They say, did you like you you look a lot like Tony Hawk, Tony Hawk. I think it's more like, do I know you from somewhere? like what and And I'm like, no, not. No, you don't. It's fine. Political celebrity.
00:18:11
Speaker
for For those of us ah who who watch MSNBC, MSN Now, or or you know consume political content in general, if they were around yeah during your race, they knew who you were. And that's the point.
00:18:23
Speaker
It's the attention economy. its Attention drives everything. Well, and I think what you saw in in the Senate primary and like ah we were starting to understand where things were going on my 2022 race that of the attention economy of, OK, like social media is a tool. More and more voters are online. Fewer and fewer voters trust traditional media, trust paid advertising.
00:18:48
Speaker
We need different ways to communicate with voters. And think what we've seen recently, and it's not just the Senate primary, but, you know, Zoran Mamdani's campaign for for mayor, right, is like the quintessential example here.
00:19:02
Speaker
Another formerly unknown state representative, right? Right. Well, like, right, exactly. He goes from less than 1% in most of the polls. Nobody knows who he is. I think he, you know, was a member of, right, the state assembly or or something. yeah And he just rises to stardom. And part of that is the context, right? Part of that is it was New York mayor. It's like there's a very, that's a very prominent office in certain ways. And there wasn't that much attention, competition politically for other things that were going on.
00:19:31
Speaker
But I do think he demonstrated a model of how to use social media in a way that really shows people two things. I think they're looking for two things from their politicians that that social media is really effective for.
00:19:44
Speaker
So one is they don't like politics, they don't like politicians, and so they and they don't like either political party, so they literally just want a candidate who is different. When I ran, so much of the driver of our social media strategy was just, what can we do that is different from other campaigns? How do we show that we are different? If people don't like politicians, we want to be different. How do we show that?
00:20:08
Speaker
Not just say, oh, I'm different, but actually show. and so We did a bunch of things. Not all of them caught on that were trying to do that. But we you know made made those ads. we I took a train across Texas to like draw attention to the fact that the Railroad Commission doesn't have anything to do with trains. We made koozies and we're going to college football tailgates and handing out like you know keep the lights on and and keep your lights on and your beer called koozies with my logo on it. like We were trying to do stuff that was not the typical thing you would see a candidate do.
00:20:41
Speaker
So I think social media is really ah effective at showing that people are different. And then I think the other thing that voters want to see is they want to see that their politicians get it, right? Like that they understand.
00:20:53
Speaker
And like that's an amorphous thing, but they want they want them to get what is happening in the world and that the world is changing and that there's a lot of uncertainty and that they are the right person to help our society navigate those things. and social media is also a signal. Knowing how to use social media and and communicate on TikTok and Twitch and Instagram or whatever are signals to voters that you understand state of the world. And so and think in both of those regards, you know, we saw James Rodrigo do that. We saw Giles McCrockett do it. We saw it storm johnny a lot of candidates doing that.
00:21:33
Speaker
But I think it's incredibly effective and important, you know, both in 2026 and going. Some of that's a proxy for youth too, though, right? Like John Cornyn is over twice as old as James Tallarico is. Yeah.
00:21:46
Speaker
He like gives off real strong, like help me convert this into a PDF energy. Doesn't know an Excel file. yeah Yeah. Like I was the youngest Democrat to run statewide in 30 years when I ran. There's certainly ah an advantage. James is a social media native, right? He grew up with he he grew grew up with this stuff.
00:22:07
Speaker
He's been using it himself. I think the same is true with a lot of younger candidates. And so you're totally right. Like, I think there is certainly an advantage for young candidates, but it's not only younger candidates who are using social media effectively. So I think, honestly, anybody needs to be trying to figure it out in order to to compete effectively. Campaign malpractice not to.
00:22:28
Speaker
or i see ah Whenever I see a candidate with just like an awful social media presence, I'm like, oh, no. Yeah. I know my my dad's over 70 and if he has a question about something, you know where he goes to social media or YouTube. I mean, that's that it's everywhere, right? And that's where everyone's at. That's part of the reason why we created this podcast. But, you know, can we marry these ideas together? Because it seems like we had a lot of content creators, non-candidates who were out there messaging on behalf of candidates. We have a lot of discourse about how the Republicans have been paying content creators for a while and at good rates. And a lot of people on our side, like us, have day jobs and are funding this ourselves. Like, where no one's paying us to do this yet. yeahll things Yeah, we'll put a plug for Patreon later. But, like, how do we marry these ideas together? And, like, how do we... Because John Turner, one of our early guests, he made a case that we need to be messaging not just at election times, but in between. Like, how do we get all this together? Like, how do we...
00:23:27
Speaker
How can we get content creators on our side? How do we get them funding? i mean, it just seems to me like that is where people are and we need to figure out how to solve that kind of problem. Yeah, I mean, I think you're 100%
Importance of Media and Messaging
00:23:40
Speaker
spot on. And i think there is a growing recognition among Democratic donors, among the donor community in general of the importance of a bunch of of this work. Right. Like people, one of the biggest narratives coming out of 2024 was was clearly that we were losing the media.
00:24:01
Speaker
And i think, you know, people saying we need a Joe Rogan of the left, like whatever that is, think that is not a perfect understanding of the of the space, but it brings up the point that clearly there's a growing recognition of the problem.
00:24:17
Speaker
I think the deployment of resources and you know strategy around that is is taking time to develop and turn into actual people being funded to do actual things. And it's not happening as quickly as it needs to. I think, honestly, the work y'all are doing to talk about that and, again,
00:24:38
Speaker
not just tell people that that's important, but actually go out and prove, like, look at what we're doing, look at what we're building and have built, helps really significantly in making that case. I mean, like at least anecdotally, I i love to see the conversation shift. like I see the the discussion of the awareness of the 2030 problem a lot more prominently than I than i used to.
00:24:59
Speaker
Obviously, we're a little podcast, but i like to think we had some small hand in the... I mean, screwing for for sure. i think you totally did. it's It is really the idea of what conventional wisdom is, is really kind of sticky, but it takes hundreds of people saying that or thousands of people, you know, saying it in op-eds, saying it in one-on-one donor meetings, saying it to their friends.
00:25:27
Speaker
And that is how public opinion changes or how conventional wisdom changes. And I think for a long time, conventional wisdom was essentially like, oh, Texas is too expensive. We think about it every year, but we actually haven't been able to get through and win.
00:25:43
Speaker
And I do think that conventionalism is changing. And I think you guys are are definitely a part of that. Well, love hearing what you said about starting your race and how you were getting pushed back on digital media, because it does feel like having run myself that there's this push, there's an inertia towards like what has been done before, what works, you know, mailers. i mean, I spent like so much money on five mailers. Now, if I were in again, like I'd do it completely differently.
00:26:10
Speaker
So I'm wondering like how ah you ran before. i mean, how do you see that now in this stage like of things that you would give advice to candidates to do and to spend money on early on and then throughout your race? Because it seems like James Tallarico is emphasizing a lot of social media and like video creation too. Yeah, and that's such a good question.
00:26:33
Speaker
The thing I would say is that unfortunately or fortunately, campaigns really need to be doing both, right? Like you don't want to throw the baby out with the bathwater. It's the core fundamentals of like, you should do call time. You need to figure out how to raise money and call time an effective way to raise money. You should build an email program because email programs are effective at raising money.
00:26:56
Speaker
You need money to pay for things to communicate to voters. A lot of that is still true because fundamentally the name of the game is how do you get your message out and how do you get your message out in a credible way so that voters hear you.
00:27:09
Speaker
I think you need to marry like the most effective candidates today are marrying that with more innovative strategies and social media. The importance of social media is certainly growing for all of the reasons that we've talked about.
00:27:22
Speaker
folks don't trust paid media as much. They don't trust traditional media as much. So I think it's new media is important. Social media is important. um And candidates should be trying to do both of those things.
00:27:34
Speaker
But again, not throwing the baby out of the bathwater because you need to execute the fundamentals and you need to execute in some of these newer or emerging areas. and that's, I really think the best campaigns are able to do both of those things, but it's really, really hard. And I think the advice I give to candidates, honestly, is that at the end of the day, it's your name on the ballot and you're the person running. And ultimately, you have to decide you're going to get advice from a lot of people. A lot of people will tell you to do a lot of different things. And at the end of the day, you just have to
00:28:06
Speaker
have the ability to filter out that information and make the choices you're going to make and hope that they're right and be able to sleep with those, you know, like be ah okay with those choices. There isn't like a perfect answer or a perfectly right answer to some of these questions. It's like, oh, I'm going to do this. It's a risk. I don't know if it's going to be a good use of time, but maybe it is like, I mean, even just thinking about campaigning statewide and getting invited to certain places and saying, like, OK, it's going to take us eight hours to get there and cost X amount of money. And, you know, how do you make how do you decide how to use your time as a candidate, which is like your which is your most important resource?
00:28:46
Speaker
i think it's really it's hard. It's hard. Honestly, at the end of the day, you're the candidates in charge and they've got to decide ah decide what they want to do and then be OK with whatever the outcome is.
00:28:57
Speaker
And it's not a perfect analogy, but the way a candidate chooses to lead their campaign, i think, is indicative of how they might behave in office, might tell you something about their leadership style and their decision-making process.
00:29:12
Speaker
Maybe this is an uncomfortable question, so you feel free to decline, but I want you to kind of, from a thousand feet up, knowing what you've known as a statewide candidate, but also having been a ah strategist,
00:29:26
Speaker
When you look at the 2026 midterms, how are the candidates doing as compared to how candidates did in 2018? Like just like in terms of the campaign apparatuses, their fundamentals, the way they're executing.
00:29:41
Speaker
Like maybe maybe set aside the Senate race because it's it's so high profile. Like let's talk about the lower you know, down down ballot candidates? Do you see certain candidates who are crushing it and some that could make some improvements? I'm not going to call people out on this podcast. yeah If you want to you don't have to. But if you want to give some free advice to our statewide ballot, please take it away.
00:30:08
Speaker
Look, i think the I think there are a few things. One is just looking at the fundamentals. 2026 is going to be a better year than 2022 was.
00:30:20
Speaker
That is just true. yeah sure but I'm talking about 2018. Because like both of those are Trump midterms. So I think there's a much more apt comparison. Yeah. So I think if you look at who's running, we have a bunch of people running statewide down ballot, but governor all the way down, who are experienced state reps and can speak to their experience and their accomplishments serving in the Texas legislature.
00:30:48
Speaker
You've got ah John Rosenthal who came in 2018 and flipped a flip the Trump district. And, you know, similar to James Calarico, who did the same thing.
00:30:59
Speaker
And I think Vicky Goodwin also came in in 2018. But yeah, so we've got these candidates who, number one, have won in tough races, and number two, have legislative experience and can talk about, you know, you see Gina Hinojosa on the campaign trail talking about her fights with Abbott over school vouchers.
00:31:18
Speaker
i think that's a really valuable experience. You see John Rosenthal talking about his experience in the legislature and what he's been able to get done. And so I actually think we're in a much better place in terms of our down ballot candidates than we were in 2018 in a lot of ways. now And no disrespect to Lupe Valdez, but if anybody has a link to bet on Gina Hunohalsta overperforming ah Lupe Valdez,
00:31:42
Speaker
Please send it to me. I'd love to make some free money. Because that seems obvious. but Yeah, they're they're just sort like much more experienced candidates running this time. And you see it in the fundraising, you see it in the polling, you see a lot of different things.
00:31:57
Speaker
Calico has raised significantly more money than Beto had raised at this point in the cycle. and Gina Hannajosa has raised significantly more money than Lupe had raised at this point in the cycle.
00:32:09
Speaker
And maybe even then Lupe raised the entire campaign, I think. And they're both better known. Well, right. Exactly. exactly Than betto was and Lupe was at this point in the cycle. Beto was kind of an unknown until he caught fire later on, especially because Jasmine was in the the primary, I think.
00:32:27
Speaker
That was just a boon to that to that point. I mean, he's much better known because he had to survive a primary with someone who was just so nationally recognized. We should not take it for for granted or not skip over the fact that the amount of attention that Texas got like this was the most important and most interesting political. Texas was the most important political story in the country.
00:32:50
Speaker
for the entirety of our primary. It was the highest profile primary. It still is. I mean, there's just a huge amount of attention. And I think it even builds on the forum break last summer and redisherting and Trump and and everything that happened here.
00:33:04
Speaker
and so I do think that is really different than what was happening in 2018. I'm curious if if you all agree. But in terms of the candidates and their ability to get attention and their their credentials and their their ability to run campaigns, I think We're in a much better place than we were in 2018.
00:33:22
Speaker
and And there's much more
Strengthening Texas Democratic Infrastructure
00:33:24
Speaker
attention on Texas. And then the other thing I would just say that I think is is really important, like we are in a much different place and i would argue a much better place from an infrastructure perspective as well now than we were.
00:33:36
Speaker
um The fact that you've got Texas Majority Pact spending huge amounts of money here, you've got us spending significant resources, the state party's more resourced than it was in 2018.
00:33:47
Speaker
You know, a lot of the work you all are doing, a lot of other media and communications efforts, things have progressed significantly. And that doesn't mean that, oh, we're unequivocally going win in 2018 in 2026, excuse me.
00:34:04
Speaker
I have a tendency to agree. I mean, I wasn't as involved in 2018. I was still in the government, but as an outsider looking in and now talking to a lot of people, it seems like in 2016, people were really brutally awakened to the reality of Donald Trump. And then they started getting organized. And we have a lot of probably similar mutual friends, Luke, that got organized here in Dallas, a lot of donors. yeah Some of the donors that we had on our podcast, Howard and Claire. And it's like now, even though they may have feelings of defeat with 2024. They have their sea legs underneath them. They're much more organized. You've got, we have far more volunteers, I think. And then as we have our new ah chair, we have, you know, resources all across the state and we are recruiting more volunteers, precinct chairs, county chairs. We have people on every ballot across the state, which I think great has excitement everywhere. So yeah,
00:34:56
Speaker
I have a tendency to agree to answer Alex's question that I think that we are in a better spot. But also you wonder if it's the blue wave, is that part of our organizing and infrastructure? And is it also a reaction to how much crazier this administration is? And like for every action, there's a reaction and how we have the the wave, you know, we've dropped even the bigger rock into the ocean and, you know, the tide is coming So to me, I think that if we were within two to three points in 2018, I think we're going to, you know, smash it in 2026 and beyond is my hope. Makes me think of that old El Paso taco ad where the little girl's like, why not both? You know what I'm talking about? Yeah, yeah. angel list those Yeah, exactly. Well, and i think I think to your point, the biggest question, right, the strategic question that nobody actually knows the answer to because we won't know until people vote in November is how does 2026 compare to 2018?
00:35:54
Speaker
That's what everyone is thinking about. And there's two things that are true there. The first is that 2018 was this like massive wave, this massive overperformance.
00:36:04
Speaker
And to predict that that's going to happen again is you know just not statistically that common. We don't have wave years that are that big that often.
00:36:16
Speaker
student That's true, that it's not just from a historical perspective, super likely to have another wave that's that big. But the flip side of that is When you look at all of the data points that we have, which is public opinion research and polling and the results of special elections, including obviously Senate District 9, where we had a 31 point shift towards Democrats um in that in that seat. But we're seeing in special elections all across the country, all across the country, this massive Democratic overperformance.
00:36:49
Speaker
The data that we have suggests that 2026 might even be a bigger year than 2026. But I don't think we can know, and you're you're not going to know how big of a wave it until 2026.
00:37:02
Speaker
The thing that that counsels towards, the thing that that we should all be doing is we should all be treating it like there could be a big wave this year and investing early and being as strategic as we can in playing to win because we don't get that many 2022 is not a year we were going to flip a bunch of state house seats for example um and we should be prepared because preparation is necessary whatever the the phrase is like you know luck is when uh opportunity meets hard work or yeah but i know the one you're talking about yeah messing it up the point is you got to be prepared
00:37:42
Speaker
So when the opportunity arises, we can take advantage of it. And I think i think you're seeing folks treat this cycle really seriously. No, I just feel like there's a tension, though, with that. like we have such a We're anticipating and we think with polling, there's a big blue wave. But as Alex harps on this like every episode, we have low polling in our in our party. And this is something that is not easy to swallow. We put something out on social media about it and people were like, what? No, like that can't be. And I'm like, no, really, it is. i mean, we might have people voting with us, but they aren't necessarily saying, yeah, no, I'm proud to be a Democrat or I approve of the party. And so how do we marry those two tensions together of like we anticipate and we've seen that wave, but at the same time, we still have work to do to improve our brand or what our messaging is about our party.
00:38:32
Speaker
Oh, I think we have a huge amount of work to do to improve our brand and what people think of us as ah as a party. If you look at this moment historically, the Republicans are about as unpopular as they have ever been, but the Democrats are also about as unpopular as they have ever yeah What that means, and I think what that's speaking to is a deep frustration with the status quo and a deep frustration with politics as they currently are and politicians in general.
00:39:01
Speaker
And so I think that means a few things, right? one is For any candidate that wants to win and overperform in 2026, they should be making the point that they are different from a typical politician, right? Like James Tallarico should be saying, I'm not a D.C. Democrat. I'm a Texas Democrat.
00:39:21
Speaker
here's what being a Texas Democrat means. I am different. Because we know that candidates that are perceived as different from your traditional politician do tend to overperform often.
00:39:31
Speaker
And so that is a really clear thing that any individual candidate that is running this year should be doing. They should be trying to differentiate from the Democratic brand because i do think that that is a strong indicator of overperformance and and there's a deep frustration in the brand. And I think he's done a great job of that. I think it's borne out by the polling. Like I was mentioning how frustrated I was with half of Beto's money in 2018 coming in the last few weeks. I think the reason why is because Texas Democrats are pretty pessimistic people. And maybe it's also national Democrats, but it's because Beto had this rush of money because there was finally a belief that it was possible. Like the polling was bearing it out that like, look, he could win.
00:40:14
Speaker
There's already a poll that shows James Tallarico leading both John Cornyn and Ken Paxton. So we have that moment that Beto had to wait for until the last month.
00:40:25
Speaker
It's already here. So we should act accordingly. Yeah. Right. So I wanted to to put that out there because that social media clip of me pointing out that the Democratic Party's numbers are in the toilet, you know, is negative. It's kind of sad. It makes me seem like I'm poo-pooing. But there is great cause for optimism, right? Yeah. Like you mentioned Senator Taylor Romet now.
00:40:47
Speaker
Yeah. And James's numbers are already ahead, right? There's already a case that this is possible right now. Like, People keep saying, we need to see more. We need to see more. No, we already have the proof point. Like now we have to go and do it.
00:41:00
Speaker
I think that is correct, right? That we have there. This is an exciting year. There's a lot of reasons that 2026 is going to be a good year. And we need to be walking and chewing gum at the same time and actually have a theory and a strategy of how to bring the Democratic brands favorability up.
00:41:19
Speaker
And frankly, I'm a believer that the representatives of our brand are candidates on our elected officials. And so that the solution to this is actually not that complicated.
00:41:31
Speaker
That it actually is just getting good people to run for office and yelling about and helping amplify them so people know who they are. They're like, oh, that's a Democrat. I think of this person. I think ah you know ah of Kate. I think of Alex. That's what a Democrat is. I like them.
00:41:48
Speaker
And it's about amplifying our current elected officials and making sure that they are our brand representatives. And I do think that having a Senate nominee that's different and that's not your traditional Democrat in James Calderico He's going to do really good things for the Democratic brand here because he is the most prominent Democrat. He will be the most prominent Democrat. He will be the a really big representative of what it means to be a Democrat for a lot of Texans, just like whoever becomes the presidential nominee in 2028 is going to have a huge impact on the national.
00:42:25
Speaker
I do think it, Kate, like to your point about fixing the brand or improving the brand, like it comes down to leader people, leaders, and amplifying them and drawing attention to them and giving them the resources they need to be successful.
00:42:38
Speaker
And then when we get into power and in the places that we are in power actually delivering for folks, right? like I think it is incredibly meaningful, for example, that the Democratic-led Austin City Council made a bunch of policy changes to make it easier to build housing. And that has resulted in a 19 percent drop in rents in the last four years. Like that is really meaningful delivery. And we should be yelling from the rooftops about those successes and the successes we see when we have Democratic leadership. And state senator Nathan Johnson and ah co-sponsored a bill with state representative Tallarico. Right. Yeah. Make housing more affordable.
00:43:20
Speaker
Yeah. And those are the real outcomes. I think that's one of the things I'm speculating, I guess, at a certain level. But yeah, I agree with you that part of the democratic brand problem is like a disconnect between rhetoric and outcomes.
00:43:35
Speaker
And so anytime someone actually does something that they said they're going to do, it's it's like a proof point that like, ah, my vote, my effort to get Democrats elected means something. I'm not advocating for Josh Shapiro to be the nominee in 2028, but like credit where it's due, like the fact that he fixed a bridge in like matter of days, not months or years.
00:43:57
Speaker
That was a story that like made a big impact on people because they're like, that never happens. Politicians always talk and they they drag things up. You see it in the data. Look at his favorability. I know. in Pennsylvania is so popular. Yeah.
00:44:11
Speaker
And I think it's because of that, like, you know, get shit done ethic. Right. yeah Like that is that is. And I think, you know, to use his his words and it really matters that where Democrats are in power. And it's it's hard because Democrats in Texas have been out of statewide power for so long.
00:44:28
Speaker
But where we are in power that we're, you know, that we're delivering and and celebrating those wins and and yelling about this. Well, mean, onto that, Alex, I remember you would say something about Andy Beshear and something that he delivered in Kentucky. oh yeah. Another great example.
00:44:45
Speaker
And that was just sort of a localized issue. And so I'm wondering what y'all's thoughts are on the issues today. I mean, we have the platitudes of health care and immigration and abortion and obviously schools. i mean, i think that's a huge problem here. We've got school closures. But are there any issues that you're seeing that are more localized that we can like help try to solve now? I mean, the one that is coming to my mind is the data centers, water, water.
00:45:09
Speaker
um And we know Clayton Tucker, who actually today our episode dropped with him. And he's really talking about that. I mean, everything he's talking about is like data centers and water.
00:45:20
Speaker
I spend a lot of time, we we do polls, we commission polls pretty regularly, but I also spend a bunch of time reading, following what other people are doing in the state. I think the clearest thing, and you guys know this and we all know this, but I really don't want to skip over it. The first, second, and third things that every voter pretty much is worried about 2026 is the cost of living.
Key Voter Concerns and Party Identity
00:45:42
Speaker
And it's the cost of electricity, the cost of health care, the cost of groceries. You know, we've been saying for a long time, it's the economy, stupid, obviously, and and and all that. But you do not see the polling all the time, the cost of living is so high on people's issues list.
00:45:57
Speaker
And so I do think that the the simplest advice for candidates is Talk about the issues that people are telling you that they care the most about. And we should definitely talk about other things. And health care within the context of health care costs, I think, is a really good frame.
00:46:13
Speaker
I think you want to have coherent vision about how to lower the cost of living in Texas and a coherent plan, depending on what what office you're running for.
00:46:24
Speaker
um And spend a lot of your time and your energy talking about that because that voters voters pay attention and they're going to know if you're spending your time and your money mostly focused on the cost of living, that that's probably the thing that you're going to focus on when you're in office. So I think, honestly, that's what... Of course, there are vocalized issues and and we''ll i'll talk about Senate District 9 in a second.
00:46:44
Speaker
But I think broadly, like the advice for candidates is actually people are so frustrated with the status quo. They're so frustrated with the economy. And really having a laser focus on not just affordability, which is kind of this like broad amorphous thing, but specifically like the cost of groceries, is the cost of your like your electricity bill, your health care costs, like those are really concrete things that we can have plans or Or on the Talarico platform, capping insulin costs, lowering prescription drugs, right banning insurers from steering patients to hospitals that overcharge. Right. The more specific you can get, the better. 100 percent.
00:47:21
Speaker
The thing that I'll say about Senate District 9, and I'm curious for y'all's read on this, too, in terms of of local issues. I think there was there were takeaways from Senate District 9 that were like, OK, Trump's in the White House. OK, Taylor Rometz, a really good candidate.
00:47:37
Speaker
I think a really important thing about the Senate a District 9 story is that Tarrant County had been the hotbed for Republican extremism here for a long time. like they They were just pushing further and further to the right on a bunch of these cultural issues, and that this was an opportunity to push back against that, and voters took that opportunity.
00:47:58
Speaker
And so I do think that that is a that was specific to some of the Tarrant County extremism But I do think it is a little bit of a playbook for how Democrats can think about contrast messaging across the state. That it's, we clearly need to talk about what we are going to do for people. And we also clearly need to talk about the Republican extremism that is deeply out of step with the vast majority of the Texans and that has captured our our state government and is leading it.
00:48:27
Speaker
Yeah. For those who aren't familiar, like, yeah, Tim O'Hare and Beau French, Tarrant County, people are, even by Republican standards, outside of the mainstream, if you can believe it.
00:48:38
Speaker
Well, I would say i agree with that, um with both of you. Like, the person who that he was running against, Taylor, was running against a woman, Whamsgans, is that how you say it, I think? think Whamsgans. Whamsgans? I'm Just because show Succession. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
00:48:53
Speaker
And she was the founder of a company, Patriot Mobile, that had a pack and it became kind of the new boogeyman, the new new MAGA boogeyman in the area. But it really, as I understood it, was born out of the school board races. And so that was a really localized problem in Southlake. And then it was carrying on into Keller where they were trying to like bifurcate the district and like all these crazy things. And I think that that became such a bat hot topic for folks and so much so that Wamsgans took down Patriot Mobile from her social media profile. And it was like, don't say the words. um And I think like that became a problem for them. Yeah, it was a real, it was a real albatross around her neck because of how deep, that rock it like how it extreme, right?
00:49:35
Speaker
Like there's always this question of what is too extreme? When do you hit the point where people actually are like, oh, we're not going ah Yeah, it's hard to decouple yourself from the most famous thing about yourself, too. Right. Yeah, yeah for sure. Well, and I think we we saw, yeah know, we saw voters vote for the Democrats because of that. Right. yep So don't know. It's an interesting it's an interesting case and maybe it foreshadows statewide. Maybe what we'll see. What I think is so fascinating about that is that he did not have to back down on working class values or working class policies.
00:50:09
Speaker
policy priorities in order to make himself an acceptable candidate for those kinds of people who are looking for somewhere to go. He just had to approach them with an open hand, right? Fundamentally, like the question is, who is the party of the working class? That is the question of how you win elections. It's really hard or impossible to have a to win a governing coalition if you're not winning a significant portion portion of the working class.
00:50:34
Speaker
i think for Taylor, union background, machine-ed. Veteran. Yeah, veteran, really could authentically speak to some of those issues. And I think we need candidates up and down the ticket who can do that. And that's true nationally. That's true in Texas.
00:50:53
Speaker
That really the question of who is the party of the working class is is something that's so important to our brand. And we've lost that a little bit in recent years. And that is a huge existential problem.
00:51:08
Speaker
or Or at least voters per perceive that. That's what we're seeing in coding, right? that Voters don't perceive us that way, that working class voters shifted away from Democrats in 2024.
00:51:20
Speaker
And certainly, I think it's one of the most important things for Democrats to be doing everywhere to really back those working class voters. And I think, you know, Taylor Romet is a great example of how to do that, but it's not's not the only example.
00:51:34
Speaker
Should we shift gears, Kate? Yeah, let's do it. And hang on a high note. Yeah, I love ah this new segment we're doing. ah Democrats got to get better about sharing the good news, spreading the gospel, if you will. So what is something from your life, either personally, professionally, anything at all that is good news that you want to share with the world?
00:51:57
Speaker
Yeah. So two things. One, personally, I got married in October and yeah that is awesome. Being newlyweds is great. you know It was a great celebration. We felt very supported by our community and you know got got married in the Hill Country.
00:52:17
Speaker
outside of Austin. And it was awesome. And so that is definitely a source of joy and a source of welcome distraction from the general state of politics and the Trump administration.
00:52:31
Speaker
So that's one personal thing I'm really, ah really excited about and really happy about. I think a a professional thing, thing that Agave is doing that I'm incredibly excited about that we're working on you know actively right now, this week, next week, et cetera. In 2024, we helped one of the biggest challenges facing Texas Democrats and down ballot candidates in particular is that it's hard to hire and afford qualified campaign managers.
00:53:02
Speaker
And so in 2024, we did this pilot where we worked with an organization called Blue Leadership Collaborative to recruit, train, and then place and help pay for the salaries for five campaign managers for five statehouse raises.
00:53:17
Speaker
That was a pilot and it went really, we feel really good about it. There were certainly things we've learned, but felt good about it. And so we came back this year and we're actually doubling the size of that program. So we're going to be doing 10 campaign managers. for 10 down ballot races that Democrats, most they're almost all flips, um both state house and county wide seats that I'm super excited about.
00:53:43
Speaker
And we've also expanded and are launching a deputy finance director program, because that's another major challenge in the spaces that there aren't enough finance staff.
00:53:55
Speaker
And so, We'll be, we are actively recruiting and then we'll train and place deputy finance directors on six down ballot races as well.
00:54:07
Speaker
So we basically tripled the size of that program from 2024 to 2026. And it's, we're in the midst of recruitment interviews, talking to campaigns to try to figure out who needs these resources.
00:54:19
Speaker
um and doing the training and that's just like a very exciting the way that that works is we really believe in cohort models and so the only people who are invited to do the training but but it's pretty and i mean the the training on it is like super intensive like they it's like on the campaign managers it's four weeks all day they're bringing in x you know we're bringing in experts on all different things it's it's pretty cool you set them up with mentorship My good news, Luke, is going to follow kind of your wedding theme here. I am ordained online and I will be officiating my sixth wedding next weekend in Wiley, Texas. Oh, yeah. To friend of mine who was a member of the hardcore metal band I managed in high school. um I was just on a phone call with him last night and getting kind of his version of like their story and like how they met and how they fell love, the proposal and all that. So, yeah.
00:55:13
Speaker
I started working up my my outline and and the order of events with the professional processional and the homily and everything. So I'm really excited about that. That's beautiful. yeah that's thanks And you're a friend. You've done it five times before. Yeah. It's ah twice for people from like my hometown area.
00:55:31
Speaker
Twice for members of my family, ah my brother, and I actually remarried my parents. ah oh well They've been re-divorced again, but oh so my track record. um And then also for a Teach for America couple that I just met at a happy hour. They're just like, we were just going to go down to the courthouse, but yeah, you should do it. yeah Well, my good news is similar in the fact that I've been married for seven years now and we had our anniversary last month, but it was in the midst of the primary and it was hard to for us to get away. So after the primary, we went to Mexico like last weekend. So was nice to have a little bit of a vacation. And then also it's like, wow, I've been married that long and I've got an almost four-year-old. But Alex recently told me on a text there that he's been married for like 14 years. So I don't know.
00:56:19
Speaker
yeah He beats all of us. I can't believe it. um How he's done that. We got married a week after I graduated from Austin College. and Oh, wow. So yeah. Coming up in 14 years. Not on the pod, but on ah ah yeah in the future, y'all have to... Well, offline, we can talk about marriage advice.
00:56:36
Speaker
Right. Bonus episode. Yeah. bonus but yeah yeah hor episode on ah i marriage Yeah. Join the patron. Yeah. Yeah. Well, that's a good segue before we head into our last segment. um I want to give a plug for our patron. If you want to support us as independent media and help us defray the cost of our incredible editor, Juan Jose, you can become a member at patreon.com and find us mission Texas or a few dollars a month.
00:57:00
Speaker
Or you can support us by giving us a five star review or share our social media, Mission Texas podcast on all social media platforms. All right. Getting that out of the way. Luke, we're wrapping up here. So we want to give you and all of our guests the last word, kind of like the last stand at the Alamo. Like, what's the last thing you want to give our listeners and our audience as far as like, what's it going to take to flip Texas long term?
00:57:23
Speaker
I love this question. And and i think about four things. One is ah Trump midterm, right? We know, looking at the historical data, that every party does the best with the in midterms when the opposite party is in the White House. 2010 and 2014 were good years for Republicans with a Democrat in the White House. 2018 was a good year for Democrats with a Republican in the White House.
00:57:49
Speaker
So number one is it's a Trump midterm. So check. The second thing I would want to be looking at is how are people feeling about the economy? Because we know that when folks are frustrated with the state of the economy, that that's good for the party out of So number two, check.
00:58:07
Speaker
People are really frustrated. see that in poll after poll. um They're worried about the economy. They're worried about the cost of living. That's gotten worse because of the tariffs, because of the war in Iran, because there's so many things ah that are happening. So two.
00:58:22
Speaker
The third thing I want to see is a bruising Republican primary. and ah And the result of it, regardless of if Ken Paxton or Don Cornyn comes out of that primary,
00:58:34
Speaker
it is going to be a pretty battered and beat up Republican nominee. They will have spent tens or maybe hundreds of millions of dollars driving down negatives about each other. And so I think in either case, you're going to end up with a pretty flawed and pretty weak Republican nominee. people like Everyone talks about how how weak Paxton is, but John Cornyn's favorability is literally worse than Ken Paxton's statewide. like That is astonishing. that is That is hard to do. That is... That's hard to do. Yeah. right It's hard to Third is a weak Republican or a beat-up Republican nominee.
00:59:18
Speaker
And then... The fourth thing I'd want to see is I want to see a Democrat at the top of the ticket in Texas who is an excellent communicator and an excellent fundraiser. And we've got, luckily, James Tallarico as our nominee, who is truly an unbelievable fundraiser and clearly is tapping into something that's online in terms of his ability to get attention and go viral and communicate with voters that is pretty special, not just here in Texas, but across across the country.
00:59:48
Speaker
And so the thing I would say, you know, that's number four, check. And so If you're looking at the perfect storm for a year where Democrats might be able to win statewide, there are years where 2022, for example, was a year where even if you squint, you can't really couldn't really see the path to victory. like it wasn't The fundamentals weren't there. It was going to be really, really tough.
01:00:11
Speaker
I'm not a person who's going to come out here and be like, oh, 2026 is definitely the year we're going win. ah But what I will say is that pretty clearly based on the fundamentals, based on those four things, this is going to be our best opportunity, at least since 2018, if not longer.
01:00:28
Speaker
And we should all be treating it like it is that opportunity. So if it is a huge wave, if lightning strikes, if things align, and as we hope that they do, that we actually can get over the top and win.
01:00:41
Speaker
And so that's what I'll leave folks with, that the fundamentals this year are positive and hopeful, and we should be acting accordingly. Amen. Well, thank you, Luke. Where can we follow you and support the Agave Fund?
01:00:55
Speaker
Yeah, you can support us at agavefund.org. You can find me. I try to not spend as much time on social media as I did when I ran for office, but on Twitter at Luke Warford TX.
01:01:10
Speaker
And then we run a public opinion research project that's free on Substack where you can you can find it at Texas Public Opinion of the Research. dot com or just on substat at texas public miniu research I just joined Substack, so I'm going to find you. It's really fun. We do quarterly polls or more often than that. And then we try to write about them and explain parts of the polls in ways that are really Yeah, because one of the biggest challenges with polling is that the questions are kind of like divorced from what is actually happening the world and not that easy to use.
01:01:49
Speaker
So we're really trying to like explain, actually walk people through in a really, really simple language, like what the results mean, which is cool. Amazing. Well, thank you, Luke. We will end it there. i will see we will see our listeners next week and God bless Texas.
01:02:05
Speaker
You can follow us on all socials at Mission Texas Podcast. Email us at missiontexaspodcast at gmail.com. This episode is edited by Juan Jose Flores.
01:02:16
Speaker
Our music bumper is by Adam Pickerel, and our cover art is by Tino Sohn.