Transcript
Speaker: Hello and welcome back to another episode of the Debatable Discussions podcast.
Speaker: Today we have an emergency episode after Donald Trump's survival of his assassination attempt.
Speaker: Yes, so it's always in the news, the US presidential election happening next November.
Speaker: However, more so after the recent assassination attempt upon Donald Trump, which has been front page news, and I'm sure about just about every country in the world.
Speaker: However, firstly, Dan, should we just quickly talk about the US election in general?
Speaker: What is happening?
Speaker: Who are the key players?
Speaker: So yes,
Speaker: So we have obviously a two-party system in the USA with Donald Trump running for the Republicans and the incumbent Joe Biden currently running, although that's a big question mark, which I'm sure we'll address later.
Speaker: But then we also have an independent candidate in Bobby Kennedy, who is a very interesting individual, had a part of his brain eaten by a worm, who's currently sitting at 10% in the national polls.
Speaker: So those are the major players, one could say.
Speaker: But I just want to talk a bit about Biden, John, about his state and if he's going to run or not.
Speaker: So, yes, there's been lots of question marks over Biden's potential viability to run for to run as the Democratic candidate and for president of the United States of America.
Speaker: Recently, there have been lots of health experts specialising in old age mental conditions coming into the White House and assessing Biden.
Speaker: However, without this, after that quite awful debate performance against Trump and constant and constant slip ups that Biden has, several donors, several key party members are just not viewing him as the person they want to be, they want as their Democratic candidate.
Speaker: And with how extreme Trump is, the Democrats really do need a strong candidate for this election.
Speaker: Yeah, I think definitely his debate w as a major, major fall for him because before, yes, we know there were all the incidents with him falling off the stairs and, you know, doing what he was doing.
Speaker: But now, really, the last few weeks, it's worse than ever before.
Speaker: So he had that awful debate performance in which...
Speaker: He said he created 50,000 jobs when in fact it was 50 million.
Speaker: He said that there's 100 trillionaires in America when there's none.
Speaker: So you're just getting facts wrong as well.
Speaker: You know, the NATO summit, I think, unbelievable mistake.
Speaker: How can you call Zelensky Putin?
Speaker: I think that's beyond measure.
Speaker: But yeah, and you're right.
Speaker: I think Trump will have a strong vote turnout from the Republicans.
Speaker: They will go out to the voting sections.
Speaker: I think if the Democrats don't get a candidate that the whole left and centrist America can get behind, then they're going to lose, frankly.
Speaker: It's just that simple, I think.
Speaker: Yeah, I totally agree with you there.
Speaker: And in these past few days from when we recorded this episode, there's just been huge signs of dissent amongst the Democrat Party.
Speaker: So George Clooney, one of the biggest donors, he withdrew his support for Biden.
Speaker: And there's just been countless, countless more members of more Democratic members in the House of Representatives and even a few in the Senate that have said they just don't think Biden is fit to run for president.
Speaker: Yeah.
Speaker: And I can see why he's in his 80s now.
Speaker: He constantly does make these mistakes.
Speaker: And the Democrats need someone who's sharp, someone who's quite electric, to battle against Trump.
Speaker: Because even though Trump is quite an old man, in fairness...
Speaker: He is so, he's quite charismatic and he's just so sharp in a way.
Speaker: And he's so quick in these debates.
Speaker: And someone like Biden, who's taking a while to process things, constantly getting things wrong, is just not a fair opponent against someone like Trump.
Speaker: Yes, I think also in the debate, it's very important to note that Trump was lying all the time, basically.
Speaker: But the problem with that was that Biden just couldn't get on it quick enough to say, well, look, Donald, that's not true.
Speaker: You're lying.
Speaker: And even if there were fact-checkers, they had to fact-check Biden as well.
Speaker: As I've said, he got a lot of figures wrong.
Speaker: It's not really his advantage.
Speaker: So I think the Democrats really need to move quickly and replace Biden.
Speaker: I mean, the NATO summit, to me, is the last final strain.
Speaker: Also calling Kamala Harris Vice President Trump.
Speaker: Yeah.
Speaker: I don't know how he is fit to run.
Speaker: So I think they need to get someone new.
Speaker: You know, I think Gavin Newsom, I think, is one of the main.
Speaker: Yes.
Speaker: So the Democratic National Convention is going to be in late August.
Speaker: It's about August 19th, I think until the 22nd.
Speaker: So they've got all the time until then and during the convention to get a new candidate.
Speaker: And I think this is one of the main issues with US politics at the moment, is that there isn't exactly a plethora of viable, strong candidates.
Speaker: However, as you said, there's Gavin Newsom or the only other one, and she is quite unpopular amongst many people, is Kamala Harris.
Speaker: Many people dislike her.
Speaker: However, as a vice president, as a former vice president, she would have been.
Speaker: She is really one of the few viable options that the Democrat party has.
Speaker: But nevertheless, they are in an incredibly hard situation to replace Biden.
Speaker: And also because they don't have much time to replace Biden as well, because they've only got around a month or so to find a candidate.
Speaker: Yes, I think the problem with Kamala Harris is that she's just so unliked in the favourability polls.
Speaker: Her approval rates are lower than both Trump and Biden, which is hard to do.
Speaker: So I don't think, I think she needs to say, look, although this should be me
Speaker: I'm not going to run for it because she cannot win.
Speaker: I think Newsom does have a chance.
Speaker: He's 50, 48, 50.
Speaker: You know, he's a younger alternative, someone who can, you know, the big question marks now, I think, for Democrats are the age.
Speaker: I think that's the main thing.
Speaker: Biden 10 years ago, I think, would have completely landslided Trump.
Speaker: But the main question mark is age.
Speaker: So if they can get rid of that and they can get someone who's got a decent likability in the US, like Gavin Newsom, I think they've got a chance to win.
Speaker: Also, I think, John, let's talk about Kamala Harris herself.
Speaker: Probably not the right candidate, I think.
Speaker: Yes, I don't really think she's the right candidate.
Speaker: However, and in certain cases, particularly Texas, she is quite unpopular.
Speaker: However, there are certain backgrounds of people, certain sections of society where she is popular.
Speaker: People like the middle class woman in America, she's very popular amongst that demographic.
Speaker: And she's also very popular amongst the demographic of people from minority backgrounds.
Speaker: So she does have support from there.
Speaker: However, she hasn't really excelled as vice president.
Speaker: I mean, in US politics, there's two types of vice presidents.
Speaker: You've got the one who's either very involved, does quite a lot, and
Speaker: Or you've got the, and that's what Kamala Harris tried to be.
Speaker: Or you've got the vice president who's sort of behind the scenes, don't really hear much from them.
Speaker: That's like a Mike Pence or really even Joe Biden serving under Barack Obama.
Speaker: However, Kamala Harris tried to become quite an involved vice president.
Speaker: However, it didn't really work.
Speaker: She had all these promises about immigration, which sort of just fell through, never really materialised.
Speaker: What do you think about Kamala?
Speaker: Yeah, I don't think she's the right candidate.
Speaker: I think she's not a very... I don't think she's a figure that people get behind.
Speaker: I don't think she's someone who will get people out of the polls, the polling sections in November when the election is.
Speaker: I think that's really at the core of this election.
Speaker: I think if the Democrats don't turn up,
Speaker: There's no way they can beat Trump because Trump's 40 or so percent of America will turn up.
Speaker: So it's just about a question with how big is the vote to turn up going to be.
Speaker: I don't think Kamala Harris does have the charisma, frankly, for this.
Speaker: But also, I think this could have all been avoided if Biden just agreed not to run again.
Speaker: Yeah, I agree with you there.
Speaker: Moving on, perhaps on to Trump now a bit, and the US election in general, before we get into the assassination attempt.
Speaker: So Biden is leading in, I mean, sorry, Trump is leading in practically all US election polls at the moment.
Speaker: He is definitely, by a decent amount, above Biden in approval ratings, in popularity, in favourability to win.
Speaker: So he is really and for a while he has been in fairness, even despite these convictions, he has been front runner in this presidential race.
Speaker: Also, the key thing for Trump is that he's winning.
Speaker: Well, he's winning in the majority of the six main swing states in America.
Speaker: So these are places like Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania.
Speaker: And these are the key sort of toss up states in the election.
Speaker: And Trump's winning in these, which is a huge issue for Biden, because Biden effectively needs to win these in order to win the election.
Speaker: So this is sort of paving the way for Trump to get into the White House in 2024.
Speaker: And I mean, you can see it really clearly with the Labour Party.
Speaker: They sent people over before the UK elections, and they still have, to sort of prepare for a Trump government, because they do know that it is quite likely that we will see a Republican in office who will be Trump.
Speaker: Yes.
Speaker: I think about Trump, I think let's go back a bit and let's talk about his felonies, his felony charges.
Speaker: I think it's extraordinary, really.
Speaker: How many are there? 27?
Speaker: Yes, I think so, yeah.
Speaker: 27 counts of felony, and his approval ratings didn't go down, or even stayed the same, it just went up for some reason.
Speaker: I don't know, what do you think about that?
Speaker: Do you think there's any particular reason why?
Speaker: I mean, I don't have a sort of a concrete, solid reason why, but I think it just shows the extent, the level of support behind Trump.
Speaker: Because these Trump supporters, people who support him, are so strongly in favour of him that, in their opinion, him being a criminal, that doesn't matter to them.
Speaker: That does not matter at all.
Speaker: They got convicted of these felony charges.
Speaker: What matters to them is who he is now in the present.
Speaker: So I think really the main thing is that it just shows the reason for it, for why he's survived this, what would be in any other country perhaps a huge scandal, is because he's just got such strong, resolute support behind him, which someone, let's say like Biden, does not have.
Speaker: With Biden, you know, the sort of Democrat Party is crumbling around him.
Speaker: However, with Trump, the Republican Party is seeming more and more unified as the election has gone on.
Speaker: It was seeming looking quite split, perhaps, initially.
Speaker: However, despite these charges, the support behind Trump is just so strong that it hasn't really affected him at all, which is extraordinary to think that even though he has been convicted of criminal charges,
Speaker: it doesn't affect him.
Speaker: Yeah.
Speaker: What do you think about it?
Speaker: I think there's two things here.
Speaker: I think, number one, I don't think Biden's receiving enough help from Hunter being convicted of a felony as well.
Speaker: So I don't think that's very helpful.
Speaker: But also, I think with Trump and his approval ratings going up, it's a matter of
Speaker: I think the American people look at that and say the system's against him.
Speaker: He's got a very good propaganda machine.
Speaker: I think we can all agree on that.
Speaker: And he's pushed this narrative that the system's going against him in such a way that after they try to cancel him, now they're trying to put him in jail and it's the establishment and he's going to go against it and he's going to win and all these things.
Speaker: that now, in our time, where we've got a lot of economic issues, a lot of conflict, a lot of war, they look at Trump and they say, you know what, this is a guy, this is a man who can take us through this.
Speaker: And it really begs the question of how can Biden combat this in the media?
Speaker: Because the big battle here is in the media.
Speaker: Trump's constantly winning.
Speaker: He's pushing this narrative.
Speaker: He's a hero.
Speaker: coming to fight the establishment who's put the American people in this position.
Speaker: When actually, the economy in America is, although not splendid, it's not quite as bad as it could be.
Speaker: Yes, I agree with you there.
Speaker: I think...
Speaker: I mean, Trump is winning the battle in the media, plainly just because he's the far more charismatic, better speaker out of the two of them.
Speaker: You see these rallies, he incites, he energises all his supporters.
Speaker: And this builds up his popularity.
Speaker: This is why people have such resolute support behind him, because he is, in fact, a very, very good speaker, whatever you believe about him.
Speaker: So he will always win this battle in the media because...
Speaker: he's done so much for publicity like these rallies.
Speaker: He's got another one in Milwaukee soon, which is likely to attend, even though he's just nearly been assassinated at one.
Speaker: And I think this, I think this perhaps does fall down just to simply with this, with this us election, it's a battle of two personalities almost.
Speaker: Yeah.
Speaker: You've got this one man who, whatever you believe about him is far more energetic, far more charismatic, um,
Speaker: even though he has said some quite crazy things in the past, he is energetic, charismatic, and a bit more, he's got more life to him effectively.
Speaker: And then on the other side, you've got Biden, who's old, forgetting things, constantly getting things wrong.
Speaker: Now, out of the two of them, there's a clear option of what you'd want as president.
Speaker: And I personally do not agree with definitely lots of what Trump says.
Speaker: But as a person, if you just look at his personality, he's a far more viable and electable person.
Speaker: So in this US election, the biggest fear isn't people saying, oh, I need to vote for Biden to stop this crazy Trump getting in office.
Speaker: It's now sort of turning to people saying, oh, I need to vote for Trump to stop Joe Biden, who's perhaps got dementia, forgets things, falls downstairs from him getting into office.
Speaker: So Alex Cora is really a battle of two personalities.
Speaker: And so that's why I think Trump is going to have an easy ride to the election, to be honest, because Biden continually makes these mistakes, which makes Biden look awful, loses his favourability, loses his approval amongst the American people.
Speaker: And Trump keeps on gaining from these huge publicity events, such as the assassination attempt, which we'll now move on to.
Speaker: He gains from these massively.
Speaker: I think also we need to talk about his cult.
Speaker: Trump's got a cult around him, effectively.
Speaker: And I think this cult is based on a couple of pillars, I would say.
Speaker: So I think number one is that he is seen as this lone ranger fighting the establishment.
Speaker: But also he's seen as this fighter, as a warrior, someone who doesn't give up.
Speaker: And I think this was heightened heavily by what happened yesterday.
Speaker: You know, we saw that picture of Trump with blood on his face, with a fist up, of the assassination attempt, just signifying in a way, you know, his, in a way, heroic way,
Speaker: he would argue that he is this hero who, you know, no one can stop and who is just very strong.
Speaker: He's portrayed as a very strong figure, I think, especially that picture.
Speaker: I think, you know, our viewers just Google Trump picture and you'll see, you'll see it's him with blood on his face, but, you know, with a very stern look.
Speaker: Yes, that is anyone who works in probably media publicity.
Speaker: That is their dream photo.
Speaker: It's someone who has just survived an assassination attempt, being hit by a bullet in the ear, blood streaming down their face, holding their fist in the air.
Speaker: That is the dream photo that Trump's team would have wanted from this assassination attempt, frankly.
Speaker: I mean, it's something absolutely awful.
Speaker: Assassination attempt, you know, as you can see, Joe Biden has said that he hopes Trump is all right after it.
Speaker: And I think everyone does.
Speaker: But in many ways, it's not a blessing in disguise at all for Trump.
Speaker: But there are benefits from it for him.
Speaker: Number one, he sort of seems sort of a bit immortal from the assassination attempt.
Speaker: And people in America, and it will massively help people's sympathy towards him.
Speaker: As people say, he survived an assassination attempt.
Speaker: The man is literally immortal.
Speaker: So this is in many ways a blessing for Trump, as much as it is a very scary shot at his life.
Speaker: And I think also it's very nicely for Trump, this plays in very nicely with this whole narrative of the weak, fragile Biden.
Speaker: The weak Fragile Biden who called Zelensky Putin, all that stuff.
Speaker: And then you've got him as this hero, can't be shot.
Speaker: And this is pure gold for his campaign, in my opinion.
Speaker: I think he's out of hospital already, which is good news.
Speaker: Thankfully, no one died at the event, apart from, I think, the shooter.
Speaker: So the shooter, let's talk a bit about him.
Speaker: has been identified by the FBI as Thomas Matthew Crooks, 20 years old, from Pennsylvania, so he can't drink, but he's allowed to have a gun.
Speaker: And he's a Republican, believe it or not.
Speaker: He's a registered Republican.
Speaker: That is just crazy.
Speaker: I'll quickly interject, though, how there was actually one spectator that was killed.
Speaker: in amidst it the government and yes i think it's because trump did tweet out a message of support to um this supporter that's yeah i mean that is that is incredibly disturbing i think for everyone involved including trump and including all the people at the rally and um
Speaker: It also, I think, gives a very powerful message, though.
Speaker: A political message, in a way.
Speaker: I think no matter what you believe, no matter if you think Trump's a despicable person or if you're his biggest supporter, this is unacceptable, frankly.
Speaker: Yeah.
Speaker: Going out to a rally with a gun and starting shooting people is unacceptable.
Speaker: And I think this is a moment of unity, in a way.
Speaker: I think, I don't know if you agree with that, John, but I think this is a moment of unity in America, which is quite needed.
Speaker: Yeah, I definitely think it's a moment of unity in America, and in particular across the Republican Party.
Speaker: Yeah.
Speaker: I think this will definitely unite the Republican Party in a way.
Speaker: And it all leads back to how this really does help Trump effectively.
Speaker: With that image of him, bloodstreamed down his face, ear being shot, holding his fist in the air.
Speaker: This is sort of almost a blessing in disguise for Trump, to be brutally honest.
Speaker: And it will definitely help him.
Speaker: It will definitely help the Republican Party.
Speaker: But yeah, and it will damage Biden, but it won't damage Biden in the way that people will dislike Biden because of it, but it rather make people just like Trump more.
Speaker: Yes, I heavily agree with that.
Speaker: I think there's a sort of last point that we should talk about is how would the Trump president actually look like?
Speaker: I think we know his stance on NATO is a bit
Speaker: in uncertain, which is, I think, the biggest for foreign policy.
Speaker: So the big caveat here is that if you do not live in the USA, domestic policy, although, yes, you still should care about it because it's, you know, but it doesn't really affect you that much.
Speaker: I think the foreign policy here is, for most of our viewers, the main issue.
Speaker: So Trump says he can wrap up Ukraine in an evening.
Speaker: I think that's interesting.
Speaker: And we know he's very pro-Israel, so he'll constantly fund Benjamin Netanyahu to continue his demolition of Hamas.
Speaker: But also he stands for NATO, I think.
Speaker: It should be something we talk about just very briefly.
Speaker: Yes, I mean, for basically any other country in NATO, there is quite a real possibility and very worrying possibility that Trump will withdraw from NATO because Trump does really dislike these international alliances like NATO.
Speaker: But to be brutally honest, Trump does have reason for withdrawing from NATO.
Speaker: There's a NATO target for defence spending, which very few countries meet.
Speaker: The only ones I can think of are really, I mean, of the countries that meet it, and there are very few, is the UK and the USA.
Speaker: And Trump, in his opinion, and perhaps rightly so, says, well, I basically fund NATO.
Speaker: I basically prop up NATO.
Speaker: If other countries aren't going to spend the money on the fence that NATO needs to be viable, then what's the point of me doing it for everyone else?
Speaker: Ten countries meet NATO.
Speaker: So these are the following.
Speaker: I'll read them out.
Speaker: So it's 2% of the GDP that needs to be spent.
Speaker: as a rule, at least.
Speaker: And actually 2024 is 23 countries.
Speaker: So 23 out of the 32 countries do meet GDP spending, which is quite surprising because last year was only 10 and then the year before it was only seven.
Speaker: And in 2017, it was only four.
Speaker: So yeah, I think that's quite spectacular.
Speaker: Yes, I mean, that can be expected, though, because in recent years, you see it with the Russia-Ukraine war, which has affected many NATO members with the sort of, to a lesser extent, the Israel-Hamas conflict, but mainly the Russia-Ukraine war.
Speaker: That has definitely raised fears about security for lots of countries in Eastern Europe and in Central Europe.
Speaker: So, I mean, and you can see it with Keir Starmer in the UK.
Speaker: He's raised the target to 2.5% because he's
Speaker: In the age and in the world of today, international security is a far bigger concern than it has been in previous years.
Speaker: And it has always been a concern.
Speaker: But right now, governments are really worried about this growing Russia.
Speaker: You see it recently this morning.
Speaker: I literally just read an article saying that Russia had just massively grown support in the Sahel region of Africa.
Speaker: So the world is becoming increasingly divided, which is perhaps a reason why Trump should stay in NATO.
Speaker: But nevertheless, all countries really do need to spend more on their own security and defense.
Speaker: I think also, you know, about the Russia-Ukraine war is interesting because the highest spending is Poland with 4%.
Speaker: Estonia, 3.4%.
Speaker: Latvia is very high.
Speaker: Lithuania is very high.
Speaker: Finland is also very high.
Speaker: So a lot of countries very close to the Russian threat are spending a lot of money with countries such as Canada, Luxembourg, Spain, Slovenia not really doing anything.
Speaker: But yeah, I think that's also very important to mention, which is will Trump stay in NATO?
Speaker: We don't know.
Speaker: I don't think he knows whether he'll stay in NATO or not.
Speaker: But it was a great blessing for him, this failed assassination attempt.
Speaker: Although, of course, hugely saddening that it's happening and that someone did get shot and unfortunately passed away.
Speaker: But for him as a candidate, I think this is probably his ticket to victory.
Speaker: Would you agree?
Speaker: Yeah, I agree with you there, totally.
Speaker: And he's already been on this path to victory, but I think definitely now after this assassination attempt, it just shows again.
Speaker: It's just propping him up even more for an expected victory and for him to move back into the White House for a second term.
Speaker: Yeah.
Speaker: Thank you, everyone, for listening to the Debatable Discussions podcast today.
Speaker: Yes, thank you, everyone.
Speaker: Please do follow us, give us a five-star rating.
Speaker: And also do have a look back at some of our past episodes.
Speaker: We've got some great episodes that have been recorded, which we'd love for you guys to be able to listen to.
Speaker: Thank you and see you later, John.
Speaker: See ya.
