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What a second Trump presidency means for climate tech
50 Plays13 days ago
Anthony, Amy, Mike, and Karthik gather in the wake of the recent US presidential election to discuss what Trump's return to the White House means for climate tech and climate change. They touch on funding for innovation, immigration, US global leadership, changes to the power sector, and the consumer sentiment that led to Trump's second term.
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Transcript
Introduction to Innovation Matters Podcast
00:00:11
Speaker
All right. Hello and welcome to the innovation matters podcast. It is the podcast about sustainable innovation brought to you by Lux research.
US Election Results and Climate Tech Implications
00:00:20
Speaker
And we are here. We are recording on January. Nope. Wrong. We are here. We are recording on November 8th. Uh,
00:00:31
Speaker
Um, I've got Karthik, uh, Amy and Mike here with me, uh, virtually, and we're going to be talking about the results of the U S election. Um, if you have been out in the woods for the last, I don't know, week, two weeks and a half, uh, Donald Trump has done it again. He's won. And we're going to be talking about the impacts of a ah potential Trump, well, uh, confirmed second Trump, uh, presidency on climate tech.
00:01:01
Speaker
and innovation a bit more broadly. But before we do, Karthik, how are you?
Reports from Amsterdam and Daily Impact of Election
00:01:07
Speaker
How are things in Amsterdam? Yeah, Amsterdam is good. Well, not quite, because there were some riots last night, which is not great. War-related stuff here. But apart from that, just the cold and usual Amsterdam. Fall is here. Finally. Fall is here. Amy, how are you feeling? Doing all right over here as well.
00:01:32
Speaker
Yeah, we're transitioning to follow and embracing it. Now, my my life's already been impacted by the but by the presidential election because I had to to to take the long way around on my way to the to to a doctor's appointment this morning because they closed the streets around Trump Tower.
00:01:51
Speaker
Yeah, so in a similar situation. My parents are actually, ah they live like two blocks from JD Vance. um That's funny. there's There's a friend of mine ah from, I grew up in Cincinnati and and he lives you know just a few blocks from JD Vance's house in in Ohio. You're referring to his house in the DC area, which I guess is not going to be his house any longer as he's moving into the Naval Observatory.
00:02:18
Speaker
ah Presumably, although it remains unclear exactly as to what's going to happen there. But um they've closed down a nice little park next to his house. So hopefully he leaves and we can get the
Perception of Trump's Win and Policy Reactions
00:02:30
Speaker
park back. I think everyone in that neighborhood is really unhappy with him because they've just like shut down a whole quadrant of um the neighborhood and the house, my parents that I used to live in. and um is even closer it's like on the same street it's like four houses down where they used to live from where he lives now which is kind of wild but yeah we're talking about we're talking about climate tech so i think
00:02:53
Speaker
We committed to ourselves that we're not gonna do election horse race, like why the Dems lost stuff um to the greatest degree possible. ah Mike is sort of actively placing placing shackles upon me or whatever. But um I think the one of the points that we were talking about earlier that we wanted to start with is it doesn't really seem like this election, as much as it was a rejection of the Democratic Party, it was not really a rejection of the Democratic Party's specific policies. Amy, we talked a lot about it. Necessarily. It wasn't as- Not necessary. I don't know. I think in particular, the relatively recent stuff, is this a rejection of, from an innovation perspective, the Inflation Reduction Act or the CHIPS Act? I don't think you can really draw that conclusion.
00:03:48
Speaker
a lot of sort of classic democratic you know policy positions. so One, even in states where Trump won, you know Missouri being a great example, where ah ballot initiatives um supporting abortion rights and a minimum wage increase and paid leave, these sort of classic progressive policies, all won at the same time as you know Trump carried the state. So I would, at least in the near term, because it's only been three days,
00:04:16
Speaker
pull back from making like specific like oh voters don't like this or voters don't like that type of um like pronouncements about any particular part of particularly like the biden administration you know innovation agenda i think it's a little too early to tell exactly what what impact all that had but um But yeah, Amy, um and i'll maybe I'll kick it up to you first. I mean, we talked in our webinar about, you know, these couple different scenarios, right? And I think part of why we're having this conversation is that we're moving towards a
00:04:55
Speaker
seemingly close to a Republican trifecta, right? Certainly they're going to control the Senate, certainly they're going to control the White House, and it seems likely at this point that they'll control the House of Representatives, although they will have a pretty ah pretty bare margin, it seems like, pretty slim.
00:05:11
Speaker
um I guess I'm curious if you had any initial reactions from just the turnout or the outcome of the election that you wanted to share before we got into some of this more specific policy stuff.
00:05:27
Speaker
Yeah, I guess from the kind the consumer perspective, I think um all things that it will it will take some time for us to be able to get the i guess the full reaction from consumers. And I think in about a month's time, we'll have a better idea on and how people are feeling about the relax ah ah election outcome. So we can talk about that um more explicitly there. um But I think just overall from from seeing the reaction is that the the election was not necessarily um very policy focused for for many consumers and so we're really seeing an an emotional response um from from many people.
Political Activism and Climate Tech Beyond Voting
00:06:05
Speaker
um Of course individual policies um matter deeply to to certain groups of the population and I think um we really we discussed that more in the um
00:06:17
Speaker
And in our webinar, maybe there's a few things I wanted to say from the consumer perspective before we go into policy. yeah Yes, ah like reactions being very emotional. I think we can we can dig into this more more deeply once we have more data, just in terms of how that's going to impact consumer behavior, whether or not they're feeling um I guess how their reaction not only to the kind of potential social implications that the the election results may have, but also the economic implications in terms of policies that may impact their their spending power, their ability to retain jobs, their access to medical insurance coverage, retirement funds and that sort of thing. So I think there will be um a lot to say about the consumer's sense of confidence in the economy.
00:07:08
Speaker
and how that will impact their spending. um I think when also when it comes to the political side of things, um one thing people are also recognizing is that voting isn't the only way that they can participate in politics. So yes, this is one um very important large outcome, but it's not the end um of their ability to be involved in politics.
00:07:33
Speaker
And I think we saw this in the 2016 election where with with Trump elected people um who were not happy with that outcome really kind of got involved in community activism and grassroots movement. So I i don't think um ah everyone is necessarily, it's not the, the fight this outcome I guess is is want is is welcomed by some and not welcomed by others. But I think um the consensus is that like political activism doesn't end there. Voting isn't the only way to get involved from the consumer side of things.
00:08:07
Speaker
Yeah, I think that's right. And I think that's important. And certainly um it is not the only thing that we should be doing.
Trump's Presidency and Climate Policy Changes
00:08:16
Speaker
Let's maybe get into some of the implications now from a policy perspective for clean tech and for climate tech and for climate change a bit more broadly. And um I guess I want to start by saying they're bad. It's I think a very open question of exactly how bad they're going to be.
00:08:37
Speaker
you know This is a podcast that obviously wants the US government and every government to take the issue of climate change seriously and to take substantive actions to prevent global warming right for a bunch of reasons. I personally think that that's a cost ah cost effective thing to do. right in the sense that I think the costs of climate change are going to be really substantial over the next 100 years. and I also think it's a the right thing to do because I think that's a lot of bad stuff that's going to happen to people. um so I think it's smart in a lot of different ways. right and This is broadly, not really necessarily an opinion that is shared by certainly the Trump administration in a lot of different ways, but we are coming off the back of
00:09:23
Speaker
one of the more substantial sets of of industrial policies um you know by US government in recent history, certainly in my lifetime, and in the form of the Infrastructure and Jobs Act, the CHIPS Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act. right And so the question is, like to what extent can the Trump administration change course on this stuff? And how far will they go?
00:09:50
Speaker
um you know with some of the more radical proposals. And I think this comes down to kind of a big tension that Mike, you and I have been discussing, and I think is sort of emerging in the the Trump campaign, where you have one group of of individuals or one group, let's call it the Heritage Foundation, that really reflects a very small government approach, right? Very strong focus on on cutting government programs, very strong focus on
00:10:21
Speaker
ending a lot of the industrial policy, very antagonistic towards China. And then you have kind of the second group of, you know, the Silicon Valley tech, you know, billionaires and tech, not just billionaires, but really tech, tech sort of executives, right? Obviously, Elon Musk is is sort of chief among these, who's really went all in, as we discussed in this podcast, on the the ah Trump presidency. And, you know, you have JD Vance is really a you know ah member of this group, I would say, and and has deep relationships with the members of this group.
00:11:01
Speaker
And I think they have a very different perspective on a lot of issues from the sort of the Heritage Foundation ah perspective. right they're obviously Elon Musk is obviously very pro, you would imagine, things like tax credits for electric vehicles. right He's pro you know clean energy. He owns a big solar company. right um He's deeply integrated and deeply invested in China.
00:11:24
Speaker
um And then you have kind of the the traditional Republican base, right? And, you know, I think it remains, one of the big questions is it remains unclear to what extent they will make a return for Trump too, right? You know, we talked about guys like Steve Mnuchin or even, I mean, to some extent, like didn't Trump put in Jerome Powell, right? Like, ah you know, like there's a lot of establishment figures that were either put in place during Trump one. And, you know, I think a lot of discussion about how
00:11:56
Speaker
Trump will be, you know, and seemingly has surrounded himself with a different cohort this time around. So it remains to be kind of seen exactly what, you know, what impact and what role some of those more traditional Republican um sort of conservative figures will play in in and Trump too, right?
00:12:13
Speaker
um
00:12:16
Speaker
Yeah, and I think that's, I mean, the the other point that you that you mentioned right is that the while the Republicans are probably going to control Congress, their majority in the House of Representatives is probably going to be pretty narrow. so um And just you know the general pattern in US politics is that um usually the party of the incumbent president loses a bunch of seats in the House in the midterm elections, so in 2026. So there's probably a good chance that the the Democrats will have a majority in Congress, again, come come to our you know beginning of 2027 when that and the and the next Congress is sworn in after this one. um But because of the narrow majority, their ability to to do things that doesn't have a pretty broad consensus across those different ah sort of elements of the Trump coalition may be more limited.
Republican Majority and Legislative Effects
00:13:14
Speaker
So something that all those groups can get behind, like tax cuts, um I think we can definitely expect to see. Some of the things you know around immigration restriction, um you know more funding for for border security, things like that that are big Trump themes um is is is something that i I think you will be able to see that type of consensus for legislative action around.
00:13:39
Speaker
um I think repealing significant parts of the IRA because of that split those those splits in the in the coalition seems less likely that we're we'll be able to to to achieve that that level of consensus on or that the you know the the Republican party will be able to achieve that level of consensus on. um you know So that that will probably We will not see as much legislative action on that front. But you know there's definitely, as we've talked about before a lot, that can still be done just within the executive branch by the president without without Congress. And I think yeah you know that's where there's probably the most uncertainty is, as you said, how um how aggressive the the administration will will want to be with with with those type of executive actions.
00:14:32
Speaker
But if I'm not mistaken, I believe not just Project 2025, but one of Trump's, ah I would say, kind of expectation of of him coming into presidency is that they're going to be able to fast track policy rollout and he's going to kind of have this executive power to veto stuff in and stuff out the way he likes it. So yeah how is that going to impact, um you know, this Trump coalition and climate tech policies rolling in and out? Because even if the coalition agrees to something, Trump can just say, no, I'm not interested because it's not what I want.
00:15:02
Speaker
Yeah, it's it's an interesting. He's a hard guy to predict, right? I think pretty famously. um I tend towards assuming that he's going to do the stuff he says he's going to do. So starting with the Inflation Reduction Act, which is you know where a lot of the climate tech policy lives, um Trump has said that he wants to you know, freeze and roll back a lot of the grant funding, right, in the inflation reduction act in particular. um There's a lot of it. It's going towards clean tech projects, particularly large scale hydrogen projects. There's support for wind and solar projects in there. um There's also support for alternative fuels in there. ah This is often administered through the loan program office, right?
00:15:50
Speaker
um When you dig into, for example, the you know Project 2025, they're actually a bit more, I think, mixed than you might imagine on clean energy. They are very pro-nuclear, for example. yeah um And they're very focused on energy independence for the United States. And in a lot of contexts, that can mean stuff like biofuels. right I think there's a very ah there's a way to pivot some of those existing technologies
00:16:20
Speaker
um and really align with those those types of expectations. But they're very, very anti um particularly translational funding. there's ah There's a very strong anti things like loans and particularly the large scale things like the Loan Program Office. Those are very much in in the sites.
00:16:41
Speaker
Other early stage, earlier stage scientific funding, however, is I think much more, I don't want to say safe, but um there's a, I would say much more mixed or it's not nearly as anti as you might expect, again, just from, you know, the popular, I think, view of what the project thing, the project sort of, you know, is viewed as, you know, one example being the Small Business Innovation Research and s STTR, the Small business technology transfer, I think it is, yes. Yeah, s STTR. I can't remember exactly what it is.
00:17:13
Speaker
But they're actually very positive on on those programs. right So I think the the big things that will really be in the targets are going to be like the loan program office in particular. So the large-scale funding, we know where the US is funding out loans to the tune of billions of dollars, ah whether that's for chips, whether that's for, especially for clean tech. Clean tech will be biggest the biggest targets there.
00:17:36
Speaker
um So that's something that you know a freeze on that is something that could be done via administrative action. um That could be done as soon as day one, right? And I think that's potentially likely. um I would put that in the the more likely category than the less likely category, just because Trump himself has been seemingly pretty strongly for it. um It also doesn't require congressional action.
00:18:07
Speaker
The bigger question on the IRA, or one of the other questions on the IRA is on tax credits.
Renewable Energy Tax Credits and Business Interests
00:18:12
Speaker
And here I think is where you are going to see a lot more hesitancy, or I think it's a lot less likely that we see these things change. You know, there's specific tax credits for wind and solar, there's specific crack tax credits for hydrogen, you know green hydrogen, 45Q. These tax credits would require congressional action to repeal right um some amendment or repeal of the Inflation Reduction Act. And already 18 Republican House members, I should say, have come out and said, hey, we don't want to repeal.
00:18:50
Speaker
these tax credits or we don't want to like repeal this funding because it's, you know, the funding is primarily going to areas in Republican, you know, in their differences, these 18 individuals.
00:19:02
Speaker
Yeah, and I think it's it's generally supported by at least many segments of the a lot of the you know kind of business and finance community right that's interested in investing in and these areas, just seeing some as strategically important, like having the government support for it. and that's Yeah, oil and gas companies. yeah they they're getting Yeah, exactly. A story in The Wall Street Journal recently where it's like, well, any gas companies want you know They don't want these things reputed. And so there's that sort of traditional conservative or that more establishment Republican pillar, I think, that sees these types of tax credits as probably a good thing and is probably responsive to you know fossil fuel um you know lobbying in that sense.
00:19:44
Speaker
ah If I may if i ask about the just the overall energy mix moving forward and what I think it's going to be, and this is what I think is going to happen, ah given the entire theme, at least from a climate perspective, has been on energy independence, materials independence, like mineral independence.
Future Energy Mix and Emission Trends
00:20:00
Speaker
like we don't you know We want to be self-sufficient and reliant. It's going to be difficult for them to you know scale up nuclear the way they think they could, because it's such a centralized supply chain, for example.
00:20:11
Speaker
so And because, and I believe this is going to happen, that Trump is likely going to again step back from the Paris agreement and say that we are not going to worry about the 1.5 degrees Celsius targets. I think US global emission, I mean, US emissions will generally just go up over the next five years and we're going to see more gas power in the mix. um Maybe a lot of solar and wind projects are going to get canceled because that's, he's generally been anti-solar in wind.
00:20:34
Speaker
especially offshore wind. Not sure about the EV side because Musk is part of his um contingent, not sure how that's going to go down. um But generally from a power perspective, I think it's going to be more gas power and whatever we have to keep um our grid going. And of course, a lot of grid infrastructure development rather than focus on clean tech. Would that be fair assessment? I think well i think it's i think it's important to say like the U.S. emissions are probably not going to go up in absolute terms. is they're going to be you know and they've They've been going down sent ah you know since the early 2000s. They continued going down through Trump's first term.
00:21:12
Speaker
yeah um It's more about the trajectory of of how fast they're going to to decrease. right so they're um Eliminating a lot of the you know Biden policies will definitely slow the rate of decrease in U.S. emissions and yeah keep us further from readinging reaching the you know the, especially the long-term targets.
00:21:30
Speaker
And definitely this is also going to impact carbon taxes, I presume, with maybe likely zero carbon taxes. Carbon taxes were pretty unlikely. or Carbon taxes will be going from zero to zero. Zero. Yeah, exactly. They're going to remain at basically. In the US. In the US anyway, for sure.
00:21:48
Speaker
I wanted to ask a little bit about tariffs and how that might impact energy because I think, um at least from the Canadian perspective, we are a huge exporter.
Tariff Policies and Global Trade Impact
00:22:00
Speaker
Coming back to this issue of energy independence, Trump has talked about his, um his he he really yeah appreciates tariffs and he's ah he's a big, he's in favour of tariffs.
00:22:12
Speaker
and whether or not he's going to start slapping tariffs on oil that's being imported, ah crude oil that's being imported from other nations and whether that's going to impact potentially the price of oil for Americans. um I know um we talked about Alberta um a few weeks ago or or last week and just reading a news article that came out shortly after the election, Alberta is very concerned about whether or not, ah what impact the the Trump election may have on their economy, because there is ah the because the talk of tariffs does potentially impact trade, um and of course not just Canada, but other nations that trade with the US.
00:22:56
Speaker
Yeah, I think tariffs are perhaps the most consistent thing that Trump likes. They're his most signature and and consistent policy, you know, during his his first term. And I have every expectation that they will return in greater or lesser to degree. Well, they never went away. he Right. Biden that is need didn't take away most of the tariffs that Trump put on. He even had a new one. So yeah to the extent but to the extent that tariffs, you know,
00:23:27
Speaker
yeah Yes, they did not go. but And the extent to which Trump has effectively shaped the entire political landscape of both the Republican and the Democratic Party this is just something that is worth discussing, but perhaps not on this podcast. ah i leave ah But I believe that the tariffs are mostly going to be um only against countries that he believes or at least the US economy believes is like direct competition to them growing again. So for example, China Obviously, I think they're going to have more tariffs on China, but not necessarily on a country like Canada. um So I think they're going to pick and choose who they want to have tariffs put on. that's pretty input That's the big question. That's the question. yeah Trump has proposed, I think, a up to 100% tariff on everything China imports. I think we are going to see a really strong China tariff. It is hard to imagine that that doesn't happen, even within the
00:24:21
Speaker
even with you know some of the you know more deeply China-linked individuals in his campaign, like Musk, it's hard to imagine that not happening. Trump has also said that he's going to put a 20% tariff on everything, I think, basically friend or foe-like. and um Again, I think we have to kind of take him on his word and that on that front. If there's anything you can trust Trump on, it's it's doing tariffs, right?
00:24:46
Speaker
um so Well, I think it's yeah i'm a there's definitely going to be a lot of discussion around that. And you know the other thing that that is ah a big theme with with Trump, of course, is that he's a dealmaker. right And you saw this a lot in his first term. He would make a lot of noise about certain tariffs, perhaps related to China. And then you know what actually came out would be a little bit less um less dramatic or less radical than that because he cut a deal with ah with
00:25:18
Speaker
but with with China and you know ah related to some of their U.S. agricultural exports, they would they would agree to buy some more of these and in exchange the Trump tariffs would not be as severe on certain products or certain sectors. So I think it's definitely an angle that he's going to pursue, but I think it's one he'll be very open to negotiating. around rather than just saying, no, 20%, no matter what, I'm just doing it. They'll negotiate. That's a view for which I don't know how much evidence there is, Mike. but like Yeah, I don't know. and That's the big question. i'm I'm not convinced that. I think at least to start, I think you are going to see some very
Labor, Immigration, and STEM Innovation
00:26:03
Speaker
intensive actions. I think we we will definitely see increases in tariffs, but I think
00:26:08
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, ah the the pattern of his first administration, there was definitely negotiation around it. And, um you know, there will be negotiation again, we'll see where it lands. So we've talked about the Inflation Reduction Act, you know, we're not convinced that it's it's possible that discretionary things like the loans will be impacted.
00:26:33
Speaker
that will probably slow the development of clean tech in America. Translational funding is definitely a risk. The tax credits are not at nearly as much risk, we think. One thing I think is very much a risk is the various labor protections and um you know also the elements of immigration, in not just in the inflation reduction act, but really within the clean tech sector overall.
00:27:00
Speaker
um I think you're going to see a lot of restrictions on immigration. This is a big talking point for for Trump. And this is something that he did, you know, again, he did exactly what he said he'd do during Trump one. Like, um I think you're going to see this coming to force. And I think the combination of those is going to have a you know a negative impact, particularly directly the
00:27:27
Speaker
There's a few areas I'm concerned about. One is workforce development. um Part of, I think, the labor protections and things like the better requirements for like apprenticeships is a good example of this, is that we need skilled electricians. you know We need skilled construction workers. You especially see this in the nuclear industry, where there's a big, big part of it is to build a nuclear power plant, you really need a trained workforce.
00:27:50
Speaker
i think the long-term implications of stripping back those worker protections and worker benefits um is making it more challenging to build that workforce up and in in the longer term.
00:28:04
Speaker
And then I think on immigration, you know this is one of the biggest wildcards to me. like There's a lot of immigrants in STEM. right This is a very big area of high, very smart people from all over the world come to the United States to do cutting-edge science.
00:28:23
Speaker
And it's entirely possible that that will be made a lot more difficult. It's already challenging in a lot of ways. It could be made a lot more difficult. And I think the impacts could be pretty substantial, right? Especially when you think about the flow of new talent into the United States, right? This is something that I think is is potentially impactful in the near term, but I think it's also very impactful over the next 10 to 20 years, right? You know, the United States has benefited immensely from from global talent wanting to come here.
00:28:50
Speaker
And the more we make that difficult, the less competitive I think we get. um Especially in the context of you know China and competition with China likely being such a high priority, it's it's tough. It's really it's really tough.
00:29:06
Speaker
um And that is something I think we did also see in the first Trump administration as well, um you know, because of in part because of policy and in part because of the vibes. the lines You saw it, you know, a lot of, you know, talented people, ah you know, people who from the the global south or or or or other areas who might you know going to choose to study in Europe instead of in the US or or things like that, so I i i do expect that to be um to be a theme for the next four years as well.
00:29:45
Speaker
And yeah, the long-term impacts of that in terms of innovation is iss definitely something, and and talent is definitely something to, um you know, that I think innovation leaders are gonna have to to to think about, and you may see companies, you know, it's a lot of global companies, you may decide that, you know, hey, I could,
00:30:05
Speaker
build a new innovation center and in California or I could build a new innovation center and in the Netherlands, right? And maybe maybe more of that that that investment gets made in other places where it's where they feel they have a better opportunity to attract global talent.
00:30:23
Speaker
I mean, of course, European politics is not necessarily the most welcoming to immigration at the moment, either. That's a whole other kettle of fish that we'll get into. So maybe it's more Canada that benefits and less Europe or whatever in this case. We'll see. We'll go in the next election in Canada. Yeah, I think we're going the same way in Canada.
00:30:43
Speaker
Yeah, I just wanted to ask, ah at least from a from an innovation perspective for long short technologies, something like fusion, for example, I still don't think there's going to be like a reduction in funding or interest because of a Trump election, because I still think that those are things of interest, even for someone like Trump, because it is again going or falling within the bounds of an energy independent and resilient United States.
Long-term Tech Priorities and Workforce Training
00:31:08
Speaker
So I don't think these long short technologies are going to be affected, right? Even if they are playing tech.
00:31:13
Speaker
Yeah, and I think the workforce stuff is I mean, it's it's could be a little more new. I mean, I think definitely stuff that that was a part of Biden's implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act, like requirements to use union labor requirements to if you're receiving these funds, you've got to provide, you know, child care for for workers and things. You know, a lot of those type of provisions I i Trump is not going to continue. I i' i would be fairly fairly confident.
00:31:38
Speaker
But you have things that sort of like workforce training for the the nuclear industry. I mean, and any politician, even you know Trump, no exception, um cares about jobs and providing you know ah so those type of kind of training programs um and things. I think i think you will probably are more likely to see continued, even if you know the level of regulation around the actual workforce will be ah you know more hands off under Trump.
00:32:07
Speaker
And I think it's probably worth finishing on the note of America's global leadership in combating climate change, um or rather the end of America's global leadership in combating climate change, which I think this, you know, Trump too will will fully, fully drive a nail in that particular coffin, right?
US Leadership Decline in Climate Change
00:32:30
Speaker
um Just for the next four years though. so No, forever. i I think America will have fully abdicated its role as as leading the climate transition by the end of this next four years. so Um, I mean, did we have that role anyway? I think there's, there's definitely in doubt. I think it was dead after Trump won. I think it came back to life with Biden and now I think it is dead, dead, um, fully dead, permanently dead, uh, with Trump too. Um, and it's not just about pulling out of the Paris agreement. It's really about the combination of, you know,
00:33:10
Speaker
prioritization of low energy costs over the costs of climate change, which is, I think, short-sighted. You know, a focus on oil and gas, natural gas, right? um But also ultimately a focus on domestic security over any form of international cooperation. And I think you know the the issues of immigration are deeply interlinked with this, right where a big part of the you know the story of the next 50 years will be people having to move from where they are because of climate change. right And the US basically saying,
00:33:48
Speaker
you know closing its borders and saying, no, you are not welcome here. right And I think the you know the the fact that the Democratic Party has more or less fully adopted the Trump position on immigration um is is a big part of the signal right that that this is you know we're really at the end of the US leadership on on climate. And I think we have to look to China.
00:34:11
Speaker
as the international leader. you know Things like China exporting gigawatts of solar panels to places like Pakistan. right Things like China probably scaling up electrolyzer is next. you know it's not just They've been the leader in in manufacturing.
00:34:27
Speaker
Yeah. The climate tech for a long time. And I think you're going to see them increasingly, especially if, you know as I believe trade tensions will deeply intensify, they're going to really seek to create an alternative sphere of influence. you know They've already been, again, trying to do this with things like the Belt and Road Initiative. um But ultimately, you know I think you'll see them move into the the As the country that sets the um the pace and sets the tone for what climate leadership looks like, I think that's not ideal. i mean Is there no enthusiasm <unk> for US listeners? like Something good to and know cling on to for the next four years when it comes to climate recognition? No, there's nothing good to cling on to for the next four years. This is bad. If you care about climate at all, this is bad.
00:35:18
Speaker
There's some things, there's some parts of it that may not be as bad. And there's some parts of it that may be really bad. But I think the baseline is that this is bad. Yeah, I think, you know, you will continue to see climate innovation happening in the US, right? Yes. Venture capitalists investing and you know, and there's still be funding for basic research, there still will be, you know, some of these And you'll see implementation. I mean, one of the interesting things, I think you'll you will see potential growth in energy demand. I mean, Trump's been very one of the things we haven't really talked about a lot, but I think we'll have impacts on fields like A.I. as the Trump administration is going to be much more um friendly to M and&A activity. So somebody on CNBC earlier this week saying like the real winner of the election is the M and&A market. And so.
00:36:09
Speaker
you'll see a lot of that. You'll continue to see you know data center growth and and all of that. And um you'll you'll see crypto growth. So there's there's going to be a lot of energy demand growth that is is driven by some of these stances.
US Innovation in Clean Energy and Global Comparisons
00:36:24
Speaker
And um that will you know probably more of that will be met by by fossil fuels and gas under ah under a Trump administration. But you are still going to see you know build out of um solar and energy storage. And again, we've got a model for this, right? Texas in the US s is a very conservative state, very conservative government and policy, but because of the needs there and the the practical realities, they're also a leader in deploying renewable energy. So the US will continue to innovate, it will continue to deploy, um you know if maybe not as rapidly on either front as it would have under
00:37:04
Speaker
you know, as it had under under the Biden trajectory. um But I definitely agree that sort of sense of global leadership particularly on the policy front is is um is shifting. And I don't necessarily think like I'm not a huge nationalist in the sense that I don't think that um it's like per se bad that the Chinese will lead um this development. But I think it is bad that
00:37:35
Speaker
America is going backwards in particular. you know We should be cooperating to the greatest degree possible with everyone globally. Because it's a very important time, right? like This is crunch time to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. It's not just a question of Oh, it's going to be delayed by four years. It's like, well, these are these are four critical years. Right. And, you know, I think obviously a lot of good c climate tech work got done during the first Trump campaign, first Trump presidency. Right. And indeed, we saw the inflection point, I think, for things like these happened during the Trump presidency. But I think we are going to slow down compared to, you know, a second Biden administration or a Harris administration. Right.
00:38:21
Speaker
And I think that it's going to be much more challenging to make the argument that other countries should make these big, impactful changes. um You know, to the benefit of the global community, when the United States itself, our message to the world is, we don't care about you, right?
Rising Nationalism and Global Cooperation
00:38:41
Speaker
um And that's bad.
00:38:45
Speaker
But isn't that a sentiment from everywhere? Like we're seeing so many governments everywhere go very nationalistic, very self-sufficiency, you know, focused. We are. It's bad. That's bad. We're seeing it and it's tough because I think it's a result of a lot of the pressures we're facing, right? And those pressures will just be amplified by by climate change.
00:39:07
Speaker
And you can imagine, and i indeed I do imagine, a very, a very very rough next 25, 50, 100 years as we stumble our way through you know a pretty disastrous period of global warming. And that global warming fuels reactionary backlash that exacerbates the issue of global warming, right? And you know things I don't think we're on a particularly good trajectory.
00:39:34
Speaker
I mean, the point I guess I'd make to our listeners is that you do have some measure of control over this. i don't you know There's going to be pressure, and I think we can look to Florida, right where a lot of big corporations came under pressure from Ron DeSantis for ESG policies. right um There'll be pressure to pivot here. And I think, you know, to the extent that you can say, hey, like solar is more energy efficient or electrification, it's it's energy efficient, right? You're going to need to do that to maintain the momentum here. And, um you know, I'd say stick to your guns, right? and To the extent you can. This stuff does matter. It is important. And I hope that you won't turn away from it. um You know, during the next four years, so.
00:40:20
Speaker
Yeah, i mean its I think from a from a business standpoint, right the energy transition is happening and companies are going to continue to to and you know need will will continue to and need to continue to invest and innovate in this area.
Episode Conclusion and Call to Action
00:40:35
Speaker
um I think we're looking at a trajectory on the pace of change and that you know from a climate standpoint, that can can have very significant results on how much how much warming we see and and things like that. so I don't want to sort of minimize that. but um I think we are looking at you know all these impacts as as significant as that can be. It's more of ah of a um more of an impact on the pace of the the change and the transition than on they know ultimately whether it's going to happen.
00:41:06
Speaker
so Yeah, I agree. I do agree with that. We did speak about energy, but we didn't kind of speak about like the circularity aspect of climate. um I really don't think a Trump presidency is, I mean, ah Trump election is going to change, um you know, mass balance or recycling or any of those things. Right. I really don't think there's going to be any impact on that side. Very hard to say. um I don't.
00:41:27
Speaker
no clear indication I'd say right now on that stuff. Yeah. I think we can maybe get into a whole discussion about that. We can do a whole discussion. That's another podcast probably. I just want to say thanks. We appreciate you listening. You can check out our podcasts at Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and anywhere you get your fine podcasts. I know this was a bit of a downer, but we do appreciate you all sticking with us.
00:41:50
Speaker
And we're going to keep we're going to keep on it. We're going to keep at it. We're going to stick to our guns on sustainable innovation. And we hope you'll all join us in the future. Innovation Matters is a production of Lux Research, the leading sustainable innovation research and advisory firm.
00:42:05
Speaker
You can follow this podcast on Apple Music, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. If you want more, check out www.luxresearchinc dot.com slash blog for all of the latest news, opinions, and articles. so