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Nos Audietis: Hand hovering, but not hitting panic button yet
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The Seattle Sounders have suffered their first two-game losing streak since the Club World Cup and haven’t won in three. That’s obviously bad news, but there’s plenty of reason to think this slump is temporary. The underlying numbers still like the Sounders and now they’ve got some home games.
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Transcript
Introduction: Sounders Struggle and Podcast Update
00:00:01
Speaker
Hi, I'm Will Bruin, and I was just recognized as a Seattle Sounders legend. Now I get to do voice reads for the Sounder at Heart Podcast Network. Here we go. Come on. Hey, O'Shaan.
00:00:14
Speaker
Let's go. The Seattle Sounders have done it. MLS Cup winners. Here comes Ruiz Diaz through the middle to crown it for Seattle.
00:00:25
Speaker
The Sounders rule the region. see of
00:00:59
Speaker
you know what was the thought process in terms of who you decided to use and who you didn't? Ever since I wrote a commentary that we didn't take the outcome seriously.
00:01:18
Speaker
This episode of Nos Arietes is sponsored by Full Pull Wines, a Seattle-based wine retailer and proud sponsor of Nos Arietes since 2011. Full Pull was founded in 2009, is based in Seattle, and is owned and operated by longtime Sounder supporters.
00:01:32
Speaker
They offer the best boutique wines of the world to members of their mailing list, with special focus on their home, Pacific Northwest.
00:01:41
Speaker
Welcome back to another episode of Nos Adiates, part of the Sounder at Heart podcast network, sponsored by Full Pool Wines, Hacks and Ferments, and our subscribers. We're recording on Monday, September 22nd, 2025. I am your host, Jeremiah Oshan.
00:01:55
Speaker
Joining me today is my co-host, Aaron Campo, and our engineer, Lickett. Well, let's just get right into this. ah The Sounders suffered another annoying result. This one, a loss to Austin FC.
00:02:08
Speaker
The losing goal comes on the in the sixth minute of stoppage time, second half stoppage time. Another late goal that ah keeps Sounders from getting the points they ah probably deserved in this one.
Defensive Woes: Costly Mistakes and Lost Points
00:02:21
Speaker
And what's so frustrating about this one is how the goals they gave up were scored, ah the missed opportunities that they had, and that this seems to be a pattern that is developing where they don't necessarily play bad. I thought the Sounders at least deserved a point in this game.
00:02:42
Speaker
but they also are prone to these silly mistakes that cost them points and are really sort of inexcusable and really avoidable. ah Aaron, I was literally up last night worrying about this game because that's how my stupid brain works.
00:03:00
Speaker
But what did you make of this result? Well, think one of the more frustrating results of the season, easy, yeah easy, easy, um maybe more frustrating than the Galaxy game,
00:03:13
Speaker
um just in the sense that Just the way it happened, you know, Austin had not really they had the one good chance on the header that Andrew Thomas made a good save of.
00:03:25
Speaker
And other than that, that's really all they created in the second half. I agree. um And and all they created in the first half was the goal, which they didn't really create like credit to the pressure and and making making something happen. If you know, that's what they try to do.
00:03:40
Speaker
Yeah. Fair enough. Fair enough. Like he's not even pressing. He's not really even. He's just getting in the way of a pass. He's not really applying pressure. Anyway, go ahead. Sorry. Yeah, no, I mean, very fair. It's the Austin was not doing much pressing at all, um which I mean, it was, you know, 90 degrees and humid. So who can blame him? But ah yeah, just the Galaxy to their credit in that game.
00:04:04
Speaker
I think the XG ended up being pretty close, pretty, pretty roughly. Even even in that game, they, you know, they created some pretty good chances. um they They had the Sounders under steady pressure. I think the Sounders with a much better team in that game. They should have won the game, but it's not like that goal came completely out of nowhere.
00:04:20
Speaker
Whereas this game, man, just the they Austin created three real quality chances in the game and scored two of them. ah and And even the one that I mean, Thomas made a great save on the header, but that's not.
00:04:33
Speaker
ultimately that great of a chance. He just made, him you know, he gets a good play, makes a good hit. Yeah, it's good play. So um super frustrating. The Sounders certainly had their chances to put it away.
00:04:46
Speaker
i'm less concerned about that just because, you know, as we know, ah ah chance looks nailed on and it's a goal less than half the time in reality. Right. um the The second ah Jordan Morris chance,
00:05:00
Speaker
um I think people were saying, you know, oh you know, he's got to bury that. That's got to be a goal. And I think the XG was something like, you know, 0.46 or something like that so less than 50 50 um but to have like three or four of those chances not find the back of the net in one game is frustrating and i mean credit to stuver he played ah an incredible game he's you know he i think it's it's fair to say but saved uh not only saved austin from losing but allowed them to win somehow um so yeah you know credit credit to him
00:05:32
Speaker
Great goalkeeping performance, but just a ah deeply frustrating game against a deeply mediocre Austin team. Yeah, I think that's a good way of putting it. And what's even more frustrating is the Sounders are now, I believe, just one point ahead of Austin, who sits in sixth place. Now, i don't I don't still feel like Austin is that big of a danger because I just don't think they're that good. But the Sounders have four games here, all against playoff teams.
Playoff Concerns: Avoiding LAFC and Maintaining Momentum
00:06:00
Speaker
They start with Vancouver, who is a potential supporter shield winner. And then they have a huge game against the Timbers. And then they have Real Salt Lake, who is, I guess, not... I guess they're not a playoff team right now. There's there are a couple points out of the playoffs and they may be dead rubber. That game may not be super meaningful as it turns out.
00:06:19
Speaker
But then they have New York City FC, who's one of the hottest teams in the league right now on the road to close out the season. Now, I suppose you can argue that this result really it was kind of already baked in the the Sounders.
00:06:32
Speaker
kind of blew their chance to finish fourth when they dropped those points to the Galaxy. I mean, that's just sort of the reality of the Western Conference. And the way LAFC is playing right now with the schedule that they have, it may have not ever been realistic for the Sounders to catch to stay ahead of LAFC.
00:06:50
Speaker
But you know one of these other teams maybe is going to come back, so who knows. But anyway, that... I guess I bring this up because it'll be interesting where the Sounders finish, because at this point I would think avoiding LAFC has to be sort of like the top priority almost like if you, yeah that means, you know, the, the, the five matchup might be good. If LAFC continues to play like this and jumps into third or even second and you end up getting Minnesota or maybe San Diego in the four or five ah matchup,
00:07:21
Speaker
But then six seven again, you might it might be a wash. you know So the the results, I guess I say all this because the results coming up are not so much about how high did the Sounders finish. It's how much momentum do they go into the playoffs with.
00:07:36
Speaker
yeah And the reality, they are almost certainly going to make the playoffs. It's very hard. to envision a scenario right now where they, they don't, I believe that they get one more point there in the playoffs or if RSL drops one more point there in the playoffs. So that's just sort of the way it is,
00:07:52
Speaker
but It's not great seeing the Sounders play this way right now, especially at the highs that they were three games ago. We were talking about this team being a legit MLS Cup container, which I still kind of think is true.
00:08:06
Speaker
LAFC has sort of rocked my world in terms of what's possible. I don't know if people have been paying attention to this or not, but LAFC is on a bender right now. ah Three straight games with a where one of...
00:08:19
Speaker
ah Sun or Bwonga have a hat trick. They have 12 goals between them in the last three games.
Analyzing Defensive Breakdown and Player Roles
00:08:26
Speaker
Just the yeah just the two of them have 12 goals. i mean, that's all their goals, but it's it's an insane run right now that LAFC is on, but we don't need to talk about that.
00:08:34
Speaker
i I'm much more worried about how the Sounders are playing, and they are just making these very repeatable mistakes that are driving me crazy.
00:08:46
Speaker
Yeah, and they're mistakes that they should not be making. This was a team that had the best defense in the league last year. yeah one you one of the best defenses in the league the the year prior. so they were the best defense back both years.
00:08:59
Speaker
Both years. Essentially the same that personnel. um Two players that I think are going to be on most people's you know defender of the year long list, let's say. Um, but two guys, any team would love to have as the anchor of their defense, um, knew who, who's only real value is in his defense.
00:09:22
Speaker
Uh, And they're just, and to to be fair, neither knew who Alex told onward, we're on the field for the second goal, which was the most egregious. That Reed Baker Whiting, who continues to be a work in progress on the defensive side of the ball.
00:09:37
Speaker
um But I do think that the two center backs are much more at fault for that goal than than he was. Yes, I would agree with that. And yeah, and and that's, you know, on the the second goal against LA also, you know,
00:09:50
Speaker
I think the center backs have a ton of of the blame on that one. they're They're out of position. They're just not where they should be. They're not really paying attention to what's happening in the game. First goal against Austin last night, obviously, was just entirely Jackson Reagan, just passing the ball directly into an Austin player.
00:10:07
Speaker
And I mean, nice look, I mean, sometimes when you are ah defender who derives a lot of value from your distribution and your ah ability to spring attacks, you're that's just part of the deal, right? As occasionally you're going to pass blocked and you can live with it on the balance of things, but in the context of everything else that's been happening defensively with this team and how much of it has, has fallen at the feet of the center backs.
00:10:35
Speaker
Uh, it's, it's just very deeply frustrating. and Very, very deeply frustrating is a good way of putting it. Uh, The, and you know, let's just break it down though. I want to, there's been a lot of discourse, I feel like around the second goal.
00:10:49
Speaker
And if we're going to assign, i want to sort of assign some, maybe not percentages of blame, but maybe tiers of blame ah because that's fun thing to do. Right.
00:11:01
Speaker
And we'll, don't worry, we're going to get into the offensive struggles or the the failures to finish as well. But let's start off here on this play. So it starts off where a ball is played into Reed Baker Whiting.
00:11:15
Speaker
He seems to have the ability to control it. He's not able to control it. It goes out of bounds for a throw in, but the ball is, you know, 90 yards away from goal right now.
00:11:27
Speaker
It is not a problematic situation. It goes in, ah Austin plays it forward and Jackson Reagan is able to easily win the header.
00:11:39
Speaker
Christian ruled on is right there for him. And he misdirects this header and Austin is able to pick it up. And at that point, Austin is then able to sort of get out on the attack and they, they move down the wing and the sounders are just sort of dropping back, dropping back.
00:11:55
Speaker
ah Georgie Manungu does try to win the ball higher up the field, but everyone else is just sort of dropping back and and letting them play. And then it gets it out into the wing. They make a pass to Danny Pereira, who is sitting about 20 yards away from goal.
00:12:09
Speaker
No pressure at all. he He sends a cross to the back post. And, uh, CJ Fodri wins it in front of Reed Baker Whiting, but there are still two other center backs in the box, neither of whom do anything to Mark ah Zuni who comes in and, uh, is able to finish the goal. At first it looked like maybe Jackson Reagan got a foot on it from behind him, but he's in nowhere to, to defend it. So if, if we're sort of like stacking the, uh,
00:12:41
Speaker
the fault of this who in this whole sequence do you feel like is most at fault i'm watching this right now again i've watched it i'm doing it's a pruder film oh deal here i've watched it too and uh man ah it's tough uh i also i misspoke i forgot knew who was still actually on the field um but i don't think he had a ton of blame i mean nobody looks good the sequence but you know what
00:13:10
Speaker
I'm not going to say he's most responsible, but Christian looks really bad on this on this play to me. He does. um He doesn't really like anyone. Neither him nor Obed really mark anyone in the entire sequence.
00:13:23
Speaker
Yeah, he Christians. the the The piece that's I think egregious from Christian here for me is that. He decides to follow the runner into the box who knew who should have had covered instead of trying to close down the cross, the clock cross is wide open.
00:13:38
Speaker
Um, Reed is not anywhere close to his mark. He just gets straight up beaten. Um, and then Jackson Reagan's on the wrong side of, of, uh, Zuni.
00:13:50
Speaker
Uh, I think Reagan probably ah just, you've got to, you have to win that. Um, but I mean, Yamar should be challenging for the initial header. I mean, here's where, yeah.
00:14:02
Speaker
ah So for me, I'm going to go higher up the
Playoff Chances and Winning Imperatives
00:14:04
Speaker
field. And i yeah to me, and the the biggest mistake is is Reagan's inability to control that header at midfield. Yeah. Because he has, all he has to do is tap it down for Christian Roldan and Sounders retain, have possession and they can run the clock out.
00:14:20
Speaker
But instead he he sort of just doesn't do anything with his header. And so that's to me the more egregious thing than what he, than his, because I kind of get where he's, he's thinking on the, in the box there where yeah there is a runner.
00:14:34
Speaker
Cause the first look is that he, he's got to be aware of that cross coming in to the, to Zuni on that first, like on the first cross. So he has to be aware of that. And so that's how a Zuni gets goal ends up goal side because Reagan is having to defend him on the other side first. Yeah. Yeah.
00:14:53
Speaker
but fair he still has to be better. Right. And I mean, Nuhu and Roldan are both marking a guy running into the box while Zuni runs in free. that's That's pretty bad. Yes, that too. just this I mean, it's a systemic breakdown. Nobody is really where they're supposed to be.
00:15:09
Speaker
um Reagan actually waves Nuhu off to go get the runner who is being followed by a Christian. ah Just, man, I got to stop watching this. It's really starting to piss me off. Yeah, it's...
00:15:21
Speaker
Just organizationally a nightmare. um And I think you make a ah good point about how there never should have been this chance in the first place. And if if Jackson, you know, has a better header at midfield, we're not in this mess. And i think that's a fair point. And so I think in that light, he's probably got to get the lion's share of the blame. But there is a lot of failure and it's systemic. It's organizational.
00:15:45
Speaker
And it's becoming a little bit of a trend.
00:15:50
Speaker
Yeah, it is it is starting to become a bit of a trend. And I think that's what's so frustrating is that this is a we know the personnel on this team can defend. Yeah. Like there's no question.
00:16:00
Speaker
I believe in my bones that Christian Roldan is one of the best defensive midfielders in all of MLS. Yeah. and yes and And yet he has a ah play like, and i so I'm sure part of it is tired. Like I'm sure he's just right tired. he's He's kind of worn down. Like we talked about this on the last show that he needed to, they needed to find a way to get him some games. One of those last two games off. And instead they played them, you know, 150 minutes or so. And fifty minutes or so and And that had a cascading problem that I think did last into this game where he just did not look his best, especially towards the end.
00:16:36
Speaker
i You know, maybe they should used one of the subs on him. But, you know, one of the people that I thought got a lot of stick in this one was George ah for this last sequence was George Minungu. And I honestly, the more I watched it, the more I did not think it was his his problem.
00:16:50
Speaker
Like he he at least tries to make a play higher up the field. And there's a bunch of guys on this on the field who don't even attempt to make a play. ah But if for what it's worth, if I'm assigning blame, I think it goes Reagan with the most.
00:17:06
Speaker
Reid, second most. Again, partly because of what he did to create the throne in the first place. And then probably Yamar after that. And then we probably get to Obed, Christian, and then maybe Nuhu. And then maybe after that, you can have some Manugru talk or some Jesus.
00:17:25
Speaker
like I suppose there's something that some of the attacking players could do. But I'm just not that worried about what the attacking... In that part, I'm just not worried about the what the attacking players would do. Because the Sounders have plenty of defenders back that can disrupt that play.
00:17:38
Speaker
And again, they just don't do anything to disrupt it. That's what's so frustrating, is that it's just too easy.
00:17:46
Speaker
Yeah, it it it is extremely easy. And it I know Austin has had these late winners lately. This is what like the third home game in a row that they've had ah a winner after 80 something a minute or something like that. um Not all at home, but yeah, they they because they did this in the in the Open Cup and they did it, I think, in the the league game before that.
00:18:08
Speaker
Yeah. So maybe, you know, i don't know, maybe they found some kind of. secret trick about, about scoring weight, but it's just, it's, there's just no excuse for it.
00:18:20
Speaker
Like you've got, you've got the the players to have the best defense in the league. And I understand that this season they have sacrificed some defense for, for attack. And I think that was a good choice. I think it's, it's been beneficial for the entertainment value. And I think probably just sustainably for the team being, you know, a trophy threat.
00:18:42
Speaker
But these guys, like they're pretty highly like that's a pretty highly paid center back pairing that I mean, cannot. It's a very talented center back pairing. Like throw the money out like for me on their day. That's one of the best center back pairings in the league.
00:18:58
Speaker
Absolutely. Yeah. And, and you know, every like everybody has bad stretches. And like, I feel like. Rightfully so. We talk a lot about ah Christian not getting rest and how he has at times looked fatigued. I didn't think that was really too much the case in this one, um although I think he he had a pretty bad game until late on, like post 75th minute. He was definitely dragging ass.
00:19:24
Speaker
ah But I mean, everybody that had been playing the whole game was right. But I don't, it feels like Christian is the only person where we ever use that as an excuse. And like, yes, Jackson Reagan had, you know, a lot of time out due to injury, but he's played a ton of minutes this year.
00:19:39
Speaker
Yehmar has played a ton of minutes this year. Obed Vargas has played a ton of minutes this year. I think he's probably already has his career high in minutes. it probably has for for quite a while. ah And, you know, I feel you've got these situations where you've got like three games and, and,
00:19:54
Speaker
10 days or whatever it was, and two of them are on the road. And it's just.
00:20:01
Speaker
There's there's got to be a way to get some of these guys some more rest. They've done a great job of rotating and attacking players, partially because they've had to. um But there's just there's no reason that we couldn't have seen somebody else play center back for one of these games or I don't know. It's just Kim. It's frustrating to get into. He did. He did.
00:20:22
Speaker
He did serve one of them. He did. but But I do see your case. Yeah. All of these guys have played a ton of minutes this year. And these do feel like. the kinds of mistakes fatigued players make, right? Or they just like, they don't have like that extra gear in games, maybe.
00:20:42
Speaker
um But they've, they've just, they've got to get it sorted out because they're going to have to play playoff games on the road. Like they have not had a great league season this year. And they haven't had many.
00:20:54
Speaker
Yeah. the the, the road results have really not been good this year. They're four, eight and four on the road, which is, mediocre I mean, it's, you know, but they're outside of the playoffs that have been better on the road.
00:21:10
Speaker
Right. And, you know, they've had, you know, they, they dropped points late to Atlanta. They dropped points late to Austin. You know, you can go down the list and find, you know, points that they, they dropped that they should have won.
00:21:24
Speaker
And it's not that they've played horrible on the road. It's just that they have not gotten, they've not been able to see results out on the road. And that's, you you know, that's, that's been what's so frustrating, but let's, let's, you know, let's take a page out of branch mentors notebook and not let the offense off the, or the attackers off the hook here because the Sounders did a really good job of creating chances in this game.
Missed Opportunities: Failing to Convert Chances
00:21:49
Speaker
ah Jordan Morris had two really good chances. Georgie Minungu had, frankly, one of the best chances that they're going to get. you know ah Obed Vargas had a really good chance.
00:22:04
Speaker
There were plenty of opportunities for the Sounders to take the lead and maybe even build on the lead. And they just were not able to get it done on on some level.
00:22:15
Speaker
You tip your head to Brad Stuber. Brad Stuber made ah hand, probably three really, really good saves. I thought the save that he made on the second Jordan Morris chance was a good save.
00:22:27
Speaker
Still. i want Jordan to finish that. Yeah. I, he made a great save on Manungu, but that's Manungu made it way too easy for him. Like Manungu has the whole goal to look at.
00:22:40
Speaker
And yeah he just kind of puts it right in the middle of the goal, which is like the one place where, where Stuber could get to it. Right at the height that he could get to it. Right. yeah Yeah, exactly. Yeah.
00:22:52
Speaker
Uh, and the, what's funny is that the the goal he scored was not an easy finish. I thought that was a great goal that he scored right at the beginning of the second half. Absolutely. And Manungu was borderline unplayable in this game. Every time he got the ball, he was, he was dangerous.
00:23:05
Speaker
Uh, But they just they just have to find a way to finish more of these chances. And they just are not they're not like finishing as as well as they should be. Now, this is a three-game sample size also. this This kind of thing happens. And so um I am encouraged that they're getting into these spots. But they do need to be better in front of goal.
00:23:26
Speaker
Yeah, they do. I mean, i i think that if you... look at the course of the season. I think that the defensive issues are, have cost them more like, because they've scored, they've scored a lot of goals that maybe they shouldn't have scored.
00:23:43
Speaker
um But it is true that in a game like this, like if, if they get a third goal before Austin gets ah their second, or sorry, if the Sounders get a second goal before Austin gets their second, I think the Sounders won in a walk. Like if Austin's having to chase this game,
00:23:59
Speaker
I think the Sounders probably get a third ah depending on when they score the second. And they had they had plenty of chances, just like against L.A. They had plenty of chances and they had some good chances in the first half. You know, Super made a great save on on Christian in the first half from from the header.
00:24:14
Speaker
um They had like a 20 minute period where they had all of these corners and everyone in the box was completely blind and they couldn't figure out how to how to take advantage of that. um And then, yeah, you know, the the the couple of ah Jordan breakaways later. I mean, i'm I'm willing to give him grace because he's just coming back from injury. But like those are the kind of chances that he does need to score. one Right. I will say that he made a great pass on the Manungu. It's a really it it's a it's a great pass. Like he cuts out.
00:24:46
Speaker
three defenders with this cutback that is could not be placed more perfectly. So I do want to give them some credit for that. I actually think george I'm mostly encouraged by Jordan Morris's play.
00:24:57
Speaker
Yeah. I mean, i think that people who have been listening to this show for a long time know where I stand on finishing. um There's no evidence to suggest that Jordan is ah anything other than a, you know,
00:25:10
Speaker
quality finisher as much as that's a thing that exists. um And so I don't think when he has these, you know, has two one-on-ones in one games and he misses them. Well, that's, that's evidence that he just can't score in those situations because he's, he's scored tons goals in those situations.
00:25:25
Speaker
ah But that's not the same as saying like he still needs to finish those chances. You know what I mean? It's like, I think over the course of the season, he's going to finish those at the rate you would expect him to finish them.
00:25:36
Speaker
But in a game like this, when you're saying, here's what we needed to do to win the game, and these are the things that didn't happen. Him not finishing one of those two chances is a great example of, yeah, you know, like that's that's one of the reasons that the Sounders didn't win the game. It's one of the reasons they they lost the game.
00:25:51
Speaker
um Georgie putting that ball where he did Christian not being able to finish the header. Those are all, you know, like, it's not a reason to think less of them as a player, but it is a reason to say,
00:26:03
Speaker
this performance wasn't what it could have been, I guess, for, yeah, for lack of, almost forgot. There was also the Jesus Ferreira chance that he sort of like dribbled. Yeah. Yeah. It was ah a weird game for Ferreira because he showed a lot of great moments.
00:26:20
Speaker
Like he set up Morris for both of his chances with great plays, great passes. He had the the chance that he almost walked it into the goal, but he took one too many touches ah but it was just that kind of game. It was the kind of game where the Sounders just didn't quite have the boots and it leaves them feeling a lot more stressed. I think during this last stretch again, not because i don't, I don't think missing the playoffs is really in the cards, but finishing seventh is definitely a realistic possibility. Yeah.
00:26:59
Speaker
Yeah. I think, too, it's it's like you said earlier, it's it's not just where they finish in the table, although that is important. Like you want as many chances to have home games as as you possibly can get.
00:27:11
Speaker
But if they, you know, if they win three of their last four and maybe get a result in in the fourth game, and they, you know, they kind of shake this off and get the defense under yeah control. It's going to feel a lot better going into the playoffs.
00:27:24
Speaker
Absolutely. And if they just kind of sneak it's, you know, that's going to feel kind of inevitable that they're the season is going to be over pretty soon. And, um you know, as much fun as the League's Cup was.
00:27:36
Speaker
i and That's not going to be enough to overcome. a disappointing early playoff exit, you know, or finishing seventh and then and getting meekly ah knocked out in the first round and in two legs or whatever. That's that's just not enough to to make it feel good. so Yeah, yeah ah we had this conversation in Discord a while back, right after League's Cup, actually, and it seemed like a silly conversation at the time. It feels more apropos now.
00:28:04
Speaker
But ah the discussion was sort of like, if is this already a successful season because they've won
Evaluating the Season: Is Winning the Leagues Cup Enough?
00:28:10
Speaker
Leagues Cup? And I would argue that you win a trophy, it's a successful season. That doesn't mean it's a satisfying season, though.
00:28:17
Speaker
And if they sort of shit the bed for the rest of the season... it will not be a satisfying season. It will be a successful season from the look, you're doing this to win trophies.
00:28:29
Speaker
Leagues cup was an amazing experience. If you give me a moment like that in a year, I consider that a successful season, but if you want me to be satisfied, I'm not going to be satisfied by going out in the first round of the playoffs.
00:28:45
Speaker
Yeah. I mean, i would disagree that it's a successful season just because I yeah We all know how I feel about the league's cup. um But I, I think it's a totally fair assessment, but you're absolutely right that it's not satisfying. If they, you know, if they get knocked out early in the playoffs, it's going to be, it's, it's not going to feel great. It's going to leave kind of a sour taste, I think in everybody's mouth. And I think we've seen what this team is capable of. We've seen the heights they can get to.
00:29:15
Speaker
yeah,
00:29:18
Speaker
for them to, to not even get close to that, it's going to be pretty upsetting. I mean, I think that, um, if they get to a conference final, that's going to feel like you can't really ask for too much more than that. I don't think. Yeah. Especially with a trophy. That's yeah.
00:29:33
Speaker
But if they can't get out of that first round, um, it's almost like a, what's the point kind of situation, I guess. I don't know. It's just, it does feel like a little bit like ah it would feel like a wasted season, a wasted opportunity, because I think what we've seen, the heights of this team are, are high.
00:29:49
Speaker
This is a team that is capable of winning really important games with a pretty impressive amount of depth. This is a good roster. I'm totally like comfortable with the state of the roster right now.
00:30:04
Speaker
Uh, but they got it. They got to find ways to get better results in the short term. Hopefully it starts this week against Vancouver, ah which is going to be a huge test. You know, Vancouver is looking pretty, pretty good right now. And the center's going to be missing Obed Vargas and Reed Baker Whiting.
00:30:20
Speaker
And, you know, it's not going to get, it's not going to get easier here. It is, it is, I will say one of the legit bummers is Obed Vargas deserves a chance to sort of gain, get retribution for,
00:30:33
Speaker
the red card in last year's home game against the Timbers and he's not going to get that. Yeah, that's too bad. That's how it goes. Yeah. Well, ah this is probably a good place to call a break. We're going to come back and i think we'll talk a little bit more about Obed and Paul Rothrock. I have a story coming out ah that this will be sort of piggybacking on and we're going to talk about their, their situations and sort of the the state of the roster a little bit.
00:30:58
Speaker
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00:31:14
Speaker
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00:31:49
Speaker
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00:32:18
Speaker
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Speaker
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00:33:05
Speaker
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00:33:18
Speaker
Welcome back to Nos Adiates. So... oh bit of news this week was Reed Baker Whiting signing a three-year contract extension.
Contract Talks: Reed Baker Whiting and Future Prospects
00:33:30
Speaker
I believe there was a four yeah a fourth option here.
00:33:34
Speaker
Makes him That was a pretty big deal in terms of deals the Sounders needed to get done. Contract, that was probably the top priority. I would think maybe not the top priority, but it was among the more pressing things the Sounders needed to do. They did not want, especially with...
00:33:50
Speaker
how Reed had been playing recently. They did not want to, you know, send him to the U 20 world cup and him look good. And then bail. I think Reed is probably the future left back of this team right now.
00:34:03
Speaker
And so getting him under contract was good. But that leaves two other, like there's going to be a bunch of players who have contract issues. But the two most pressing ones right now are Paul Rothrock and Obed
Negotiations and Valuations: Paul Rothrock's Contract
00:34:17
Speaker
Vargas. And we asked Craig Weibel about the status of their negotiations.
00:34:23
Speaker
And he basically said that they have offers that they're waiting on that we think are good offers. And it's sort of up to them whether or not they're going to take it. I don't have a lot of insight into the exact numbers that are being offered.
00:34:38
Speaker
But these are, i think it's it's worth talking about both of them in broad terms and sort of explaining what's going on here. And they are pretty different situations. With jet with a Paul, it's pretty straightforward. It's about finding a number that both parties are satisfied with.
00:34:59
Speaker
you know my At one point, I believe the Sounders were offering something like 400 and Paul's people were asking for something like 700. i don't know what the current status of that is. This was before the League's Cup final, which frankly, i would think his his people were like,
00:35:16
Speaker
I don't know. Maybe that's our minimum now. ah You just made our boy the poser child of this of this whole thing. He's playing well. Pay the kid, right? And I don't i don't honestly begrudge him that.
00:35:28
Speaker
you know Shoot your shot. ah The Sounders, I think, are being a little bit more pragmatic and saying, look, this guy has nine goals and nine assists in his MLS career.
00:35:40
Speaker
He is a starter. He's starting a lot of games for us, but we're not really sure he's a starter in that if everyone is fit and healthy, i don't think he is probably going to be starting for the Sounders.
00:35:52
Speaker
So we don't want to pay him like a starter. ah But at the I think still, this is to me a deal that will probably get done because there's probably a number that makes sense, right? I think so. i and I think most likely the Sounders want Paul here and I would guess that Paul probably wants to be here. Right.
00:36:13
Speaker
and And I think, look, I think the Sounders assessment is is correct. I think that he is, i think the last three games have have been kind of evidence of this. He's a difference maker as a rotational guy. He's a guy that you absolutely love to have on the team.
00:36:29
Speaker
There are situations like as a guy that you have to plug in as a starter for, you know, a stretch because of injuries. He's he's perfect for that. he's He's exactly at the level you'd want as a championship caliber team.
00:36:43
Speaker
And I think he's a starter on ah in MLS, just not for a championship caliber team. And so if he wants to go somewhere and start and that's more important to him than, you know, than than being in Seattle or whatever, I don't i don't begrudge him that.
00:36:57
Speaker
um But I think ultimately the Sounders are correct in their assessment of sort of what his talent level is like. And, you know, there's a at the end of the day, we have like a lot of data on what players like that make.
00:37:10
Speaker
And the Sounders, I'm sure, are probably going to stick you know to to to that data yeah i mean who are they who would you say the comps are for him well it's interesting because his fb ref comps are um pretty good and but uh you know we're looking at sort of a limited amount of data for those um i don't know um i mean would you say he like paul areola is a comp for him I mean, that's that is actually a pretty good comp. I think it's it it it is. It does get interesting when you when you talk about it that way And he's a you know, he's a one point five million dollar. was a DP at one point.
00:37:51
Speaker
yeah um and then but also he has a lot more proof he has a more proven track record i think that's one of the big differences um and you know and uh so ah fb rough has his top uh oh no he's not anymore that's changed at one point jonathan bomba was his top uh comp and jonathan bomba is a extremely well compensated player um but he also is making way too much money and that's the Chicago fire continuing to give tons of money to guys like that is why they're the Chicago fire.
00:38:21
Speaker
Um, but currently it's, uh, at the Georgian guy that plays for Atlanta United, whose name I'm not even going to attempt to, uh, pronounce, uh, Saba.
00:38:32
Speaker
Yeah. Saba. Saba. Okay. He's good. That's, that was a good choice by him. Uh, he's making 900 Yeah. yeah I would not pay Paul Rothrock that personally.
00:38:46
Speaker
Yeah, that seems high. But I think that if his agent's any good, he's going to have that as a data point. Right. um Yeah. So, yeah, I don't know. I mean, I think. um i am trying to think of of good comps and I just i I probably don't pay close enough attention to the to the league.
00:39:04
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, i think what makes it tough is that there's some sort of unquantifiable. unqutifiable thing about Roth rock and that it's the Seattle connection. Right. And, and I, I think more the the, the leverage that he has is, is he's not going to be an MLS free agent. So we can't just go anywhere in MLS, but I would think an English championship team would be all over him.
00:39:29
Speaker
Like he, he's someone who I think would be successful in the English championship, not necessarily as a starter, but someone who's going to get, who can find success there. Who's going to get you goals. Who's going to, you know, keep your, your teammates honest. And I could see Paul,
00:39:45
Speaker
loving that. ah And so I would think that is probably his fallback option. If things don't happen with the Sounders, I really do hope the Sounders figure it out. I, this feels like something that will get figured out to me.
00:39:59
Speaker
It's hard for me to imagine him walking over, you know, that this, that money is really going to, when it's going to keep this from happening. So I'm going to assume this one gets done.
00:40:11
Speaker
The Obed Vargas one, though, is a lot more complicated.
Obed Vargas: Contract Complexity and Transfer Speculation
00:40:17
Speaker
And to explain what's going on there, he is the he is technically going to be under contract next year.
00:40:23
Speaker
The Sounders have already picked up his 2026 option. But that's of little consequence if he gets to... like Basically, if the Sounders can't come to ah an agreement with Obed on a long-term deal...
00:40:41
Speaker
I think they almost have to transfer him this winter because if they don't transfer him this winter, they've basically missed that opportunity. And you would think Obed is going to, if he doesn't, if they don't convince him to sign him before next season, what he's saying is I want to take my chances and try to go to Europe on a free.
00:41:00
Speaker
ah Yeah. And he's not, yeah and I don't know that he's guaranteed to make more money that way. I don't know if, if teams going to be offering them to, you know, two, $3 million dollars a year.
00:41:13
Speaker
They might, i don't know. They might, I don't, I don't quite understand. I don't, I don't not really good with understanding the math of if you don't have to pay a transfer fee, does that really end up going back into the player's salary? Probably not.
00:41:25
Speaker
I mean, I think it does for some players, but yeah, you know, you still have to pay a signing bonus usually for free. I think that that's where the money comes from more than salary is signing bonus. Um,
00:41:38
Speaker
you get a bigger signing bonus, you know, if you, if you sign on a free, which is the player's money, right? Yeah. Well, or the agents, but yeah, that's a good point. fair ah But I think that that is a super risky approach by Obed. I really do. I think that if now the unknown here is have the sounders gotten offers that they're not telling anybody about that they have turned down that Obed knows about.
00:42:02
Speaker
If that's the case, then I think it's a smart move by Obed to, to try to push, push a move. um But if there haven't been offers from Europe, if that is genuinely the case, um and you know the only standing best offer out there is from Tigres, and he has said, i don't want to go to Liga Amici's, I want to go to Europe.
00:42:24
Speaker
And the Sounders have said, yeah, we're willing to try to try to make that happen. He's putting himself in a situation where the Sounders say, look, man, you can go to T-Race or we can sit your ass and not play you for a year.
00:42:38
Speaker
You know, like, I don't think the Sounders would do that, but it just, I don't think he has the leverage to try to force a move, especially because I think the Sounders are amenable to helping him move.
00:42:50
Speaker
ah Yeah, I guess you're right. I hadn't even really thought of that, of that sort of like, uh,
00:42:58
Speaker
that sort of situation where it gets really ugly, like that would be really yeah kind of a bummer. ah But it would be, I, I don't think it will come to that. That seems unlikely.
00:43:08
Speaker
It seems very unsounders G that they would sort of punish a player like that. But I suppose it is, you're right. It is sort of like on the, on the, on the game board.
00:43:19
Speaker
That is one of the moves. It unsounders but if they want to play in, the international transfer market, it's going to have to become something they they're more comfortable doing because look, like the Sounders, I'm assuming the Sounders are willing to offer him a max U22 contract.
00:43:40
Speaker
You would hope, right? Let's just assume that. Yeah. For the sake of this discussion, let's say that's what's on the table. And they're saying and they have said, look, if we get an offer from a club.
00:43:51
Speaker
In Europe, that is worse for us and worse for you. Right. and We're not going to stand in the way of it. They're probably they'll probably end up taking less money to help him get to Europe than they could get from Tigris right now.
00:44:04
Speaker
Right. So, yeah, I mean, it's not super sounders to punish him in a situation like that. But it's a crazy thing to do to just say, like, OK, well, ah you won't sign a contract.
00:44:18
Speaker
We haven't gotten any offers for you. Except for this huge one that's probably bigger than the one we said we would wait to get so to give you what you're looking for in your career. Right. So we're just going to lose you for nothing, which would be malpractice.
00:44:32
Speaker
who like Whoever allows that to happen should not have a job anymore. He's the most valuable player ever produced by the club. To lose him for nothing would be and ah humiliating.
00:44:46
Speaker
and should be a career ender. Right. So, um, yeah, they just, they can't let that happen just because they, they want to have this like touchy feely, feel good reputation of always doing right. But the players, like it has to be a two way street and I'm, I'm totally like a worker power guy. Um, but in this situation, like you have to, out for your bottom line. mean, that's rules of the game. essentially, yeah, right. mean, what you're saying is like, these are the rules the game and you got sort of, right. Yeah.
00:45:14
Speaker
warts and all sort of have to play the cards you have. Yeah. yeah I mean, and there's also, there is also another risk, even short of the Sounders sort of going apoplectic is look, if there, again, we're assuming best intentions here. We're assuming they're offering the max Tam or not max cam max U22, which would be a million dollars this year. $1.1 million dollars and and or sorry, it would be a million dollars in 2021.
00:45:42
Speaker
five it would be 1.1 in 2026 sorry 1 million in 26 1.1 in 27 and then potentially even more than that uh going forward because the cba new cba might drop uh numbers that are even more lucrative right where like who knows might be 1.5 and in 20 in twenty twenty eight you can just kind of go on. Right.
00:46:06
Speaker
So let's assume the Sounders are making a real, like that's real money. you know, that's a, that's a five X raise that he's looking at getting right now. And he's essentially would be walking away from that and risking injury or risking something else that really messes with them. And we don't have to look that far to see examples of this where players get these injuries and, and, you know, and anytime you you get a serious injury, it casts doubt, right?
00:46:36
Speaker
Yeah, absolutely. Yeah. And so that's, and so hopefully that's how yeah I really hope they're able to come to a deal. you know, the last thing Obed said was something along the lines of, I think we'll get this figured out, but I have not heard anything from the sounder side of things that makes me think they are super confident that this is going to happen and that they are hearing all the,
00:46:58
Speaker
you know I think there are some very real yeah threats is maybe the wrong word, but I think there's signs being given that they might just wait out the contract, which would be such a bummer.
00:47:12
Speaker
Yeah, it really would. It would be a total nightmare. um And it just it's so unfathomable to me that that would be allowed to happen that I'm just not even considering it as a possibility.
00:47:25
Speaker
um And you know Obed seems to... to have genuine affection for the club. And, uh, I'm sure he doesn't want to burn any bridges or anything like that. So, um, you know, I'm hopeful, I'm hopeful they can work something out. And, uh,
00:47:40
Speaker
you know, maybe, maybe they he says, I'm not going to sign a contract until after the winter. And then if we can't find a move in the winter, then I'll sign the deal. That's a possibility, I suppose. Yeah. I mean, that would be,
00:47:50
Speaker
yeah I mean that would be an interesting, yeah. An interesting play. I don't know how much sense that would make for him because i don't know how much sense it would make for him either. by agent ah yeah, but I do think the U 20 world cup could very well take care of that problem. Like if he goes and plays well, um,
00:48:10
Speaker
I think that the offers are going to come for sure. Yeah. Yeah. Well that, that's sort of, I guess I just wanted to lay that out for everyone. I don't have, again, i don't have a lot of insight into where this is going, but it's,
00:48:24
Speaker
you know These are things to understand. And I think for the best of everybody, it would probably be good if Obed sort of balls out in the U-20 World Cup and makes himself really attractive to someone and then has a good playoff.
00:48:38
Speaker
And the Sounders win MLS Cup and some European power comes in and says, look, we want to pay you $20 million dollars for Obed Vargas because we need him right now. We think he's a starter for us. So let's hope for that.
00:48:50
Speaker
Yeah, that'd be great. That would be really, that'd be really good. Yeah. Everybody wins. Everyone wins. Exactly. All right. Well, we're going to, we're going call it a show there. ah Thank you to everyone for, for listening. Of course ah we had, we had kicked around the idea of trying to do a live show ah next week.
00:49:09
Speaker
I guess it would be next week. Yeah, it would have been next week, but I don't think we're going to do that. It logistically would have been tough. would have been fun. Yeah. but I just don't think I have it in me right now.
00:49:21
Speaker
This has been crazy. Yeah. um But I think next week we'll have plenty of action going on with the Sounders and ah two Cascadia games. Jeez, what are they doing to us?
00:49:35
Speaker
And it's a brutal, it's a brutal run ah to the end of the year. Thankfully three, three home games, which is nice, but still tough. Yeah, very much. All right. Well, with all that said, and we're going to get out of here.
00:49:48
Speaker
I'm Jeremiah Shan signing off for Aaron Campo and Lick It. ah Well, of course, and our sponsors, Full Pool Wines, Hacks and Ferments, and of course, our subscribers.
00:49:59
Speaker
This is Nos Audietes, part of the Sounder at Heart Podcast Network. Remember, you'll never get alone.
00:50:33
Speaker
Let's go at Sounders. um