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Jesús Ferreira has been a lot better for the Sounders than you think
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Niko Moreno joins Jeremiah talk about how good Jesús Ferreira has been for the Sounders and hoping to see what the attacking quartet of Jesús, Albert Rusnak, Pedro de la Vega, and Jordan Morris can do again. Finally. Discussion then turns to the return of our players on International duty and how they all did on their respective squads.
In the final segment, Jeremiah talk to Paul Harvey of American Soccer Analysis and The Outfield (a NYCFC outlet). They discuss a new analytical tool Paul developed and also the upcoming game versus NYCFC.
Follow Niko Moreno on BlueSky and YouTube.
Follow Paul Harvey on BlueSky and The Outfield.
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Transcript
Introduction by Will Bruin
00:00:01
Speaker
Hi, I'm Will Bruin, and I was just recognized as a Seattle Sounders legend. Now I get to do voice reads for the Sounder at Heart Podcast Network. Here we go. Come on. Hey, O'Shaan.
00:00:14
Speaker
Let's
Seattle Sounders' MLS Cup Victory
00:00:15
Speaker
go. The Seattle Sounders have done it. MLS Cup winners. Here comes Ruiz Diaz through the middle to crown it for Seattle.
00:00:25
Speaker
The Sounders rule the region. see of
00:00:59
Speaker
you know what was the thought process in terms of who you decided to use and who you didn't? Ever since I wrote a commentary that we didn't take the outcome seriously.
Sponsorship by Full Pull Wines
00:01:18
Speaker
This episode of Nos Arietes is sponsored by Full Pull Wines, a Seattle-based wine retailer and proud sponsor of Nos Arietes since 2011. Full Pull was founded in 2009, is based in Seattle, and is owned and operated by longtime Sounder supporters.
00:01:32
Speaker
They offer the best boutique wines of the world to members of their mailing list, with special focus on their home, Pacific Northwest.
00:01:41
Speaker
Welcome back to another episode of Nos Adiates on the Sounder at Heart podcast network. It is Friday. We are at Long Acres.
Weekly Insights with Nico Moreno
00:01:49
Speaker
I am joined once again by Nico Moreno for what we learned this week. Nico, you doing?
00:01:55
Speaker
Hey, what's going on, Jeremiah? Just happy to be here. It's been a nice, cool, chill week in terms of weather. And it's been cool and chill to also just look at this team and the way that some of these...
00:02:11
Speaker
international ah players that were out there, international teams are coming back. ah We got to see a lot of intense practice. So it's been it's been a real good one for me.
00:02:22
Speaker
Yeah, this week has been interesting because they had guys sort of trickled back, like you said.
Player Updates and Injuries
00:02:28
Speaker
ah Today, Snyder, Brunel rejoined the team, Nuhu rejoined the team.
00:02:33
Speaker
Christian Roldan was here. he was not training. i And then Georgie Manungu has not returned yet. He apparently is like flying in right now, and they're assessing whether or not he's going to even go to New York.
00:02:47
Speaker
new york Luckily, they might not need him because they have they have enough healthy bodies now where it's it's not so much a necessity. But, ah you know, JP was back in training today.
00:03:00
Speaker
Trying to think who else was. it was essentially everyone. Everyone, but the the hurt guys were were available. Obed was not training today. It sounded like he just kind of got a day off. He did train yesterday.
00:03:13
Speaker
Yeah, think he was inside today. So, yeah, aside from Keehee and Yeba, who are clearly off out for this game, everybody else trained um that that was here. ah Obed was inside.
00:03:25
Speaker
And Ryan Kent, who's been – obviously not going to play for this one, but he's been ah partial yeah participant in training. I think that's something we learned this week is that he is a lot farther along than we thought with a caveat that there's a big difference between – him being out there feeling like he's really good and getting medically cleared. And and that's kind of what I've been able to find out and hear like in between the walls ah is that he might look really good. And he's definitely has raised the amount of participation that he's had in various drills with the group, but he still has to get cleared. So they got to take a look at the injury, make sure that that is taken care of. So it, yeah,
00:04:10
Speaker
If I had to put a um and way to describe it right now is that Kent is going to be your break the glass if we need it in the playoffs. In the playoffs. Yeah. ah Schmetzer was very optimistic about getting him back onto the, getting him available again, but it does seem just from a numbers perspective, it just hard to imagine what would have to happen for him to actually get on the field because Schmetzer,
00:04:36
Speaker
i can't i mean I don't see how you can put him ahead of Georgie. I don't see how you can put him ahead of, you know obviously, Rothrock, De La Vega, Ferreira. You've got options at the wide spots. And so I just don't know that Kent is someone who is going to, even if he is available, i mean the reality is he hasn't played in four months or whatever it is, three months. and you know But it's good. I'm glad that he's getting close. It's a good option to have.
00:05:02
Speaker
ah One other person we learned about this week was Kim Keehee, who sounds like he has a trickier injury that is apparently not good news is that it's not like ah it the way that Schmetzer has talked about, it he keeps describing it as a mass, which makes you think, oh, no, is this like a tumor or something like that?
00:05:23
Speaker
And Schmetzer kind of said, no, no, no, it's good. It's nothing like that. it's It sounds like it's more like a knot in his in his calf muscle. But they are waiting to see a specialist in the Midwest, which to me suggests he is nowhere near. Like he's he's weeks away from returning at best.
00:05:41
Speaker
Yeah, and I don't know if it's something they're going to have to surgically remove. like Right, we have you know idea no idea. No idea what that could look like. The good thing is that Stu Hawkins had 45 minutes, looked really good. yeah He's looked strong in training. He's another guy that I've been pretty ah excited to see slowly evolve.
00:06:03
Speaker
get more of a ah responsibility and more minutes. And even Leo Burnett was out there today. Yeah, Leo Burnett was there today. Antino Lopez has been, and like the the guys that got called up last week have been still participating this week. Antino Lopez, Peter Kingston, Sebastian Gomez, i even Yusuke Nome have all been participating in training this week.
00:06:25
Speaker
And look, you know, very much in the place. I would not have necessarily paid, you know, a month ago. I would have not thought that Tino Lopez was going to be, you know, this close to being in the team. But all of a sudden, he looks like someone who might be in the picture for next year. ah None of these guys are going to be this year, I don't think.
00:06:42
Speaker
But, ah you know, Stu Hawkins may actually have a role to play on the scene this year. I have to think that he's got, you know, one of the higher ceilings going into next year and beyond. Agreed. ah You know, and if we're looking at this game, so more as what we're learning about this team than what it means for this game, there is some interesting pieces that are going to be out there. You know,
00:07:03
Speaker
Osase De Rosario, today we found out, won the Pro Pathway Player of the Year, whatever like a new award. Apparently, it's sort of this award that is meant to straddle you know players that got called up from MLS Next Pro and then had a good... Or had... you know part like That were useful for their MLS team.
00:07:21
Speaker
I don't really know who else was in contention for this award, but it was an MLS-wide award and Osase De Rosario won it. So that's great. i you know I got to think that his... Ceiling is is very bright or his future is very bright within the Sounders.
00:07:36
Speaker
ah But this week, um I guess one other thing we should address. There was a little bit of a scare today at training. Jordan Morris goes out with, you know, he's, he's like kind of like grabbing his leg and he stops training. And then like two plays later, Jackson Reagan grabs his head. He got like hit in the face, in the face or something like that. Uh, but then Brian Schmetzer came out and said, no, I was checking on them and they seemed to both be good. So, uh, I don't know We can, we can both freak you out and, and comfort you
Jordan Morris and Team Performance
00:08:07
Speaker
in the same sentence.
00:08:08
Speaker
Yeah. Yeah, you could definitely exhale and and yeah you know feel like he's okay. But it was interesting because he talked to one of the trainers for a little bit. He was just kind of right there.
00:08:21
Speaker
And then he just went off and it it seems scary. I'm glad that everything's okay. Especially because Jordan's going to be a guy that I feel like this game means more to him than most players i would agree on the field. Yeah. This is a big potentially big game for him.
00:08:38
Speaker
right before the playoffs on the road, um, after a game where I thought he played well, but he clearly it's probably beating himself up for the PK.
00:08:49
Speaker
So, um, This team, I feel like on the attacking end, will have a lot of their stronger pieces because a guy like Albert Rustic, who obviously needs minutes after not being available against RSL because of the red card, you got to get him going again. So that, I think, gives Jordan an opportunity to get in front a goal, get good services, and hopefully get the goal that he's been waiting for or trying for. Right. And the reality is that even though you know his numbers are not bad from a per 90 basis because he started the season off gangbusters, but the reality is he hasn't scored since May, ah which is a long time. Now, he's missed most of that time with injury. He's only started...
00:09:33
Speaker
ah One or two games in that window. So it's not like he's been going a lot of minutes without playing, but there does start to be a mental strain on you as a, you know, so especially as a goal scorer when you're on the field and there's just been a long time since you remember the feeling of the ball hitting the back of the net.
00:09:51
Speaker
And ironically, the last goal he scored was the goal that put him in the lead. The center's all time lead for a goal scored in franchise history. ah But yeah, I think this is a big game for him.
00:10:03
Speaker
it would be great. It looks like we're going to see a starting front four for just, this would be the second time this year that we've seen it of Pedro de la Vega, Albert Rusnak, Jesus Ferreira, and Jordan Morris, who I think give you ah very high level potential But they have, like I said, they've only played together once. And that was the San Jose game where Jordan got hurt 30 minutes in.
00:10:26
Speaker
So they only have like 30 minutes, I think, on the field. Maybe they have a little bit more on the field together than that. But they've only started one game together. They don't have a lot. So this is a kind of important game to see if you can get that quartet clicking because that is a high upside group.
00:10:43
Speaker
And I think it's important that you mention it because I love to hear the the fans, they comment, everybody is concerned and rightfully so that, you know, there could be potential of injuries and that maybe they should completely rotate this team. But between one you're absolutely right, getting continuity,
00:11:03
Speaker
ah Getting more competitive minutes for that attacking four to get going is important. And then just overall momentum. You don't want to go to New York City, get clapped and have a situation in which the game gets out of hand.
00:11:18
Speaker
And then what you take that last L going into the playoffs where you got a week off and that's it. Right. So I think that. in terms of rhythm, you want to keep Ferraro going. And I got to talk about Ferraro because he was so good. Maybe his best week of training. Best week of training this week. I mean, he looked locked in this week, talking to guys, bringing guys off the field.
00:11:42
Speaker
He feels like he's taking it into this leadership role that... wasn't quite there. Obviously, you're the new guy. And obviously, you know, you got to get to know people. And that's kind of what I wanted to ask Brian, but don't know if I did a good job at it.
00:11:54
Speaker
But I think that overall, what I wanted to say is that Ferreira has grown in all aspects of the game, in this system, on the field, as a leader, with the group, with the guys. Now you see him, you know, hanging out with the guys, playing FIFA with the guys.
00:12:08
Speaker
Like that that is important for him. And I really do think that he's starting to, with that, his play has gotten better. and And a lot of it has to do with, we were talking about it this week um with a couple of guys.
00:12:23
Speaker
Ferro was dealing with a lot. It was the change of, of, of a club. It was his wife being pregnant. Then his, ah his wife giving birth and being a new dad. And there's just so many things that I think moving away from, i mean, the reality is that this is a ah someone who grew up his whole life in the Dallas area.
00:12:40
Speaker
Frankly, playing in the Dallas system since he was like eight or nine years old, something crazy like that. That's all he knew. And so to come out here and it's a whole new environment, it's a it's new weather, it's new teammates, it's a new organization.
00:12:58
Speaker
And I think it's taken him some time to get settled in. And then the end result has been a player who I think is a much different player than the Sounders thought they were getting. But maybe in some ways a better player, a player who fits what they needed more than they maybe even realize I mean, this the the kind of playmaking that he's doing right now where he's complimenting Albert Rusinac and Pedro de la Vega.
00:13:22
Speaker
this i mean, i think there's real potential for that. Like if they can get this group going, and don't see why they can't make a serious run. And I think even now, people still underrate and underestimate the importance that he's had this entire season.
00:13:40
Speaker
i don't think that they win Leagues Cup without him. I don't think that they they go one game loss at home the whole season without him. And i want you to share the stat of how many games he's played because it was a shock to Ferreira. It was a shock to me.
00:13:56
Speaker
but right that that that he's been able to with all that looming over him and ah before you you you bring up that stat i just feel like i see him lighter like all that weight is is almost gone or gone completely and i feel like that's why i've seen this change in his attitude and play and everything but i mean you more than anybody with just the the digging and the research that you did will tell us why he's been so important. Yeah. So he's played in 44 games this year across all competitions. He's only missed two games.
00:14:28
Speaker
I don't know that he, I think he's only missed one game because of injury. I think one, they just rested him. But for basically the last three months since before even leagues since before, like since basically since the club world cup, he is not missed any games since the club world cup.
00:14:45
Speaker
He's only not started. I think two games in that time. And he is he's already set a career high for minutes. He has blown away all his appearance. like That's that's like way in the rear room here. But he's now he's going to end up playing. He's already played twice as many minutes as he played last year. ah he is just and i with The funniest thing I think about this is that the maybe the single biggest question coming into when the Sounders brought him in is, is he fit?
00:15:12
Speaker
Can he stay fit? Does he have the work ethic to actually get himself in the in the shape that he needs to to withstand the the pressures and the the the challenges of playing multiple competitions?
00:15:26
Speaker
And those things, he has passed with flying color. I mean, it's like not even a question. he He has been the most one of the most reliable players on this team in terms of his availability.
00:15:37
Speaker
It's remarkable. Yeah. And even in terms of attitude, there was this yeah this stigma and this narrative about him being this guy that was all about him and that he just didn't want to work hard and all of these things that you heard coming from either media in Dallas or people that knew about the team, ah me doing research with people around.
00:15:57
Speaker
ah There were some really good things about it, but there were some, you know, rumblings about other things. And he has completely impressed me with how unselfish he is, with how much of what he wants to do on a daily basis.
00:16:13
Speaker
He works hard. He watches video. he Even on the field, what you see, the pressing, the pushing, everything that he does just tells me that he's a guy that is for the team.
00:16:23
Speaker
All the intangibles that you want out of a Sounders player, which is basically the m MO here in ah the Emerald City, that's what he brings into the table. No, he is. It's funny. Cause, uh, you would not have thought, you know, Brian Schmetzer is sort of this, this guy who it's the work is the baseline. If you aren't doing the work, it doesn't matter how good you are.
00:16:45
Speaker
That's sort of like his, that's the way he, he carries himself. And I don't know that Jesus on paper looked like a Brian Schmetzer a guy when the sounder signed him. I agree. And now he's like,
00:16:56
Speaker
Brian Spencer's dream player. I mean, he's doing all that. He's smart. He's cerebral. he is he He is not all about me. i mean, I just think a great example of that is, you know, you you have the penalty in the ah RSL game.
00:17:11
Speaker
Jesus is on the field. He hasn't scored in a bit. It would have made total sense. He's actually the most experienced penalty taker on the field at that point. It would have made total sense for him to be like, no, I'm taking this.
00:17:22
Speaker
He was probably the guy on Brian Spencer's call sheet. And he gives it to Jordan because Jordan needs that goal. And that's just not the kind of, that's ah not a thing a selfish player does.
00:17:33
Speaker
Like he, that I, to me, it shows a lot of growth of Jesus that Jordan didn't convert. It is not, is irrelevant to the point I'm making. I love that about Jesus. I I'm really, I'm, I'm really, you know, optimistic that it's, that this is going to be a long time thing. And this seems like he has found his, his second home, essentially.
00:17:52
Speaker
yeah He loves the city. He feels like, Not necessarily the weather. Not the weather, but just the city general organization. yeah He talks so highly about everything about it. And and I do feel like there's, and this is not coming from him, but he does feel like there was a need of a change of a horizon. It seems like that. yeah well And I mean, Dallas has been a dump fire, to be quite honest.
00:18:15
Speaker
You know that the sale that they had of players all around. ah So, I love that about it, that he feels grateful to be here. He
Jesus Ferreira's Impact
00:18:23
Speaker
feels happy to be here. And I think that showed up. And it's, you know, very interesting because this is probably this could end up being Craig Weibel's best move throughout his time as a GM. And yet it was the most scrutinized yeah in so many different aspects of the game.
00:18:39
Speaker
Yeah, it is kind of, it is funny. This, this move ends up looking like really smart right now. Uh, I, I don't know. I would be worried where the Sounders are, frankly, without Jesus Ferreira. And it's, it's not just the goals and assists. I mean, he's going to end up with, you know, 15 or so goals and assists this year, which is not a,
00:18:56
Speaker
a great total, but it's not a bad total. Uh, but it's, it's really all the other little things that he does. He just makes them so much better. you know, and we, he had, he had two plays at least he could have easily had two assists in the, in the RSL game. He didn't have any, so that kind of speaks to how that goes, but I've been very happy with him.
Obed Vargas: Transfers and Performance
00:19:17
Speaker
one other piece of news that has just recently come out though. I wanted to talk to you about, uh, There's been a lot of reporting outside of here about Obed Vargas. ah Just recently, he got linked to Blueco, which is the ownership group of both ah Chelsea and Strasburg.
00:19:34
Speaker
ah They've apparently been sniffing around. i was actually able to confirm that they have expressed some interest, but it's not nothing imminent. There's not a lot of smoke there. But then today, there was a ah big report from Obed.
00:19:47
Speaker
CL Merlot, apparently. yeah that's I was tagged in, and i'm I'm still trying to figure it out because i think a lot of times, even the big wig type of transfer market guys, that the guys that break the the transfers, I don't think that they're as informed about...
00:20:05
Speaker
players' status and the way MLS works. um I think some are better than others. Fabrizio, I feel like he's a little bit more involved. He goes in and out, yeah. Yeah, he has some more of an idea.
00:20:16
Speaker
But in this one, they were talking about that ah Sporting wanted him to be a free agent agent and they were going to sign him as a free agent and in 2026. Well, that's completely wrong because both you and I and everybody who follows Sandra Harden, everybody who knows what's going on,
00:20:33
Speaker
understands that he is under contract through December of 2026. Then after that, you could do whatever. ah You were talking, because i I asked you about the the pre-contract.
00:20:44
Speaker
That would have to be done six months prior. Next summer. Next summer. So none of that is ah reality right now. And Everything that I hear is like it has been um ah difficult negotiation for several reasons, but it feels like it's tilting toward him getting that extension here.
00:21:05
Speaker
Yeah, and I would imagine that doesn't necessarily mean that he's going to be here a long time, but what it does is it gives the Sounders a lot more ability to go out into the market and find ah fair market value, which honestly is in Obed's interest as well, because he's going to get a cut of any transfer fee.
00:21:21
Speaker
He's going to get a signing bonus. And so if the Sounders are out there helping him find the right place, that helps him not to speak nothing of the short term dollars and cents where if he signs, I mean, he's only $150,000 or something right now.
00:21:36
Speaker
if he gets signed to the max extension that the Sounders can give him, that's a million dollars. That's a lot of money in his pocket. It also sets a higher wage ah baseline for his next position. So there's a lot of reasons as much as, you know, people say like, Oh, well, why would he resign? Why would we resign? It's like, well, there's a lot of reasons and it's all having to do with money.
00:21:57
Speaker
He might actually be able to get, there's a lot of, in your pocket upside to signing an extension. Now, does it make it maybe a little bit more complicated to get that next position?
00:22:09
Speaker
You know, maybe it depends on the way you're looking at it, but teams who are looking to sign you on a free aren't necessarily ah always the places you want to be either. Not to mention the fact that it also protects the player if there's an unfortunate situation with an injury or anything going on next year. I mean, that's six months of you being basically without insurance. And and if something happens, that club has no commitment to you. And they are not going to pay you if you're hurt. So to me, makes a lot of sense that Obed would take the money now. yeah he has...
00:22:43
Speaker
He's never looked like a guy that's in a rush to make that step to Europe or anywhere else. So why now? Just get the extension, give us some time, focus on continuing to play for ah team that's going to play at the highest level.
00:22:58
Speaker
And it's going to showcase you. It's going to showcase you. Correct. I mean, that's, you know, we just saw, you know, of all the players that were out on international duty, I mean, honestly, the one who got done the dirtiest is probably Obed because he was not put like I appreciate Obed's perspective on this. And this is maybe another thing that we learned this week is that Obed had a very professional attitude about going to the U-20 World Cup, which is I think he understood that I'm not going say that it's beneath him, but he's a senior player. He does not need to be playing in youth tournaments.
00:23:34
Speaker
But he wants to show the Mexican Federation that he's in, that he is willing to do the work. You know, he was not part of the qualifying group that got into this tournament. So he even though he had...
00:23:46
Speaker
three times the first team playing time of anyone else on that roster. He didn't come in there and say like, Hey, I'm the big guy Everyone listened to me. I'm going the team leader. He just wanted to fit in. And he tried to, ah and he sort of talked about how you just offered his, he he was willing to do whatever work they wanted him to do. And a lot of it was,
00:24:05
Speaker
Piano carrier type of work. He was not put in a position to put up big numbers. He was not put in his natural position. He was essentially asked to play as a six. Sometimes he played he moved. yeah I think he played a different position every game he was in. And but none of them were to meant to showcase his abilities.
00:24:21
Speaker
He just was sort of facilitating and helping everyone out. And I think that shows a lot about who he is as someone who just wants to be a good teammate. Yeah, and I feel like he, it takes a lot for someone to understand that, look, this is a team sport. I'm here to do what the coach asks of me, and I'm going to make sure that I don't make it about me doing everything that I can to continue to showcase my talent, but rather be a piece of a winning team. And Mexico's U-20 was a winning team. They got out of an incredibly hard group,
00:25:00
Speaker
ah They gave Chile the business, ah the host, and then they had a tough going against Argentina. But at this at the same time, I think thought i thought that Obert Vargas' experience was was phenomenal throughout all of those games. Yeah, I think that it it maybe didn't raise his stock on the transfer market, but it raised it honestly kind of raised my opinion of him as but as high as I am on Obed.
00:25:26
Speaker
I really and i really like Obed. I just was very impressed with the way that his attitude about the whole thing. ah Because he he just seemed really happy to be there. And it and you can tell his heart is genuinely with Mexico.
00:25:40
Speaker
ah he He really just wants to be part of the Federation. And he's no, he's not going to get out in front of himself and say, like, I need to be on the World Cup team or any of that kind of stuff. But he's doing a lot of the work to put himself in that position.
00:25:53
Speaker
And even Javier Aguirre, after a complete disaster ah friendly against Colombia, where Colombia just ran em over the Mexican national team four zero he talked about there's a lot of guys in this team that are not playing like they want to be here.
00:26:10
Speaker
And he he said the door is open for a lot of the U-20 guys, including Obed, Montel, and Hilbert Tamora. Right, which is a scary thought that the U.S. might not to be facing some of these,
00:26:23
Speaker
That's quite a ah trio of players coming through ah the Mexican youth ranks. ah And then the other player that came back and and we talked to, it was Reed Baker Whiting. He did not have as much to do with the national with the u twenty s He only started one game They were kind of a tough break because i would think on paper, the U.S. was playing as well as anyone in that tournament.
00:26:46
Speaker
And then they outplayed Morocco and they lose 3-1. Kind of a tough break. But that's that's that's tournament play for you. And Reid seemed to be really happy with his experience. He he talked very glowingly also of ah being there. but and And so I think in the wash, it was probably a good experience for him.
00:27:06
Speaker
ah Yeah. And the thing about Reed is that, look, he was in a national team, which system didn't quite ah put him or gave him a lot of options to play. And he even played at 10. He told us he played as ah as a winger.
00:27:20
Speaker
i thought that the competition at the, you know, fullback position, wingback or even as a. as a Winger, they were difficult and and he couldn't get there. But, um you know, I asked him and i don't know if you like the question very much, but I asked him, you know, what was it about all of those factors that didn't quite get him minutes? And I think he was more focused about what he did get experience. He was able to get there. He got, a you know, all of these opportunities to play different positions.
00:27:49
Speaker
And ah that makes him a better player for it. Absolutely. Well, I think that's mainly the stuff we wanted to go over today. We we actually have an interview with Paul Harvey of American Soccer Analysis and the Outfield to kind of preview the New York City match after this.
00:28:06
Speaker
So stick around after the break for that. But was there anything else you felt like you wanted to address before we get out of here? No, I think that um that is about ah everything that we had. ah Clearly, this is a very important game for the team in order to figure out what's going to happen. ah i don't know why. and I hope that you don't get mad at me. ah But i well because i don't want to say what's coming. i don't want to put bad juju on the thing, but I don't know why I woke up today with this feeling that.
00:28:44
Speaker
LAFC was going to draw at Colorado and Minnesota was going to win against the Galaxy. And it was going to be a three game series between LAFC and the Sounders. Now, as much as none of us wanted that, as much as I, that's the last team I want to play three times in a row, ah the the headlines would be immediately...
00:29:08
Speaker
big, right? Because you would have that feeling of the Sounders against the LAFC of 2019. Yeah. yeah Where, you know, nobody thought that they could do it, but there was a really cemented group where, you know, they were peaking at the right time.
00:29:24
Speaker
So I don't know, man. I just woke up with that feeling. I just want to let you know. want fan base know that that's what I woke up with. You got bad juju. Yeah. Well, I don't know if it's bad juju. Because what what if they win? What if they do take them out? I mean, I don't know. Like like I said, i I don't want to see LAFC in a three-game series.
00:29:41
Speaker
But if it does and the Sounders win, sky's the limit. Yeah. Yeah. Well, will say one. So it's not that this game is completely irrelevant for the Sounders. Now, they can get to 55 points.
00:29:54
Speaker
which is not going to change their standing in the West, but it potentially jumps them over a few teams in the supporter shield standing, oh which does give them a little bit more ah hope of hosting a potential MLS Cup if they were to get there.
00:30:10
Speaker
ah Because theoretically, now again, these are teams that could still finish ahead of them, but theoretically they could be ahead of Nashville, Orlando, Chicago, and Columbus. Now those are all the the bottom four teams in the East, but...
00:30:25
Speaker
i I wouldn't discount the possibility of... Nashville or Orlando, uh, putting together a nice little run and and getting Tim West cup. So it's not that the game is totally irrelevant.
00:30:36
Speaker
Uh, and also I think 55 points feels a lot better than 52. Sure. Of course. I feel like that that's important. And it feels like this team has played above those 55 points. I would agree with that too.
00:30:51
Speaker
it It feels more like a 55 point than 52 point season. Yeah. I like it. Yeah. But but that that is all I had. Why did I bring it up? I don't know. Because just like sometimes I want to share yeah what happens in my brain. And in case people do care, and we'll just we put it out there. that That's what we hear. That's what we learn, what we feel. All of it is out on the pod. Absolutely. Well, Nico, thank you again for doing this. Uh, you, people can follow him on soccer down here lobbying scorchers on pool. So sports, and of course here at sound at heart on, uh, what we learned this week.
00:31:27
Speaker
Thank you for doing this, Nico. again, if you want to stick around, we have an interview with Paul Harvey, uh, talking about New York city FC gives us a nice little preview of that. We also get into some kind of statistical, uh, conversation. So, uh, another reason to stick around for that, but anyway,
00:31:43
Speaker
I am Jeremiah shann This is Nos Adietes, part of the Sounder Heart Podcast Network. And ah we'll be right back. Bye. Thank you for listening to the Sounder Heart Podcast Network, which now includes Nos Adietes, Loving Scorchers, and The Cooler Guild. Although this podcast is free, it's only made possible through our paid subscribers.
00:32:00
Speaker
Plans start as low as $30 a year and allow us to remain independent and mostly ad-free. subscribers get access to all our written and podcast content, including a full text RSS feed and a mostly ad free podcast feed that includes every show in one spot. If you really like what we're doing though, I'd encourage you to sign up at our higher tiers, which include all sorts of various perks.
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00:32:22
Speaker
The most popular of those is our members only discord or the real Sounders sickos hang out. I know I've called this group, the smartest, funniest and best informed Sounders fans in the world, but it's more than the rough equivalent of a Sounders Mensa meeting.
00:32:35
Speaker
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00:33:04
Speaker
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Speaker
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00:33:52
Speaker
Again, go to hacksandferments.com, use the code sounderatheart at checkout for a free hot sauce with your order. Hacks and Ferments is a proud sponsor of the Sounder at Heart podcast network.
Paul Harvey on NYC FC Analysis
00:34:06
Speaker
Welcome back to Nos Adientes on the Sounder at Heart Podcast Network. We are currently joined by Paul Harvey of American Soccer Analysis and the Outfield. We're going to talk a bit about New York City FC. We're going to talk about a tool that he just built that is a fascinating analytical tool.
00:34:25
Speaker
ah But anyway, welcome to the show, Paul. I'm happy to be here. Thanks for having me. So let's just get right into it. New York City FC is not a team that plays the Sounders very often. I think we figured out that the last time they played was in the 2022 CONCACAF Champions League.
00:34:42
Speaker
And it's i think one of the things that always drives me crazy is people say, oh, the Sounders had this easy path. but that was a really good new York city FC team, not even getting into some of the other teams that they played, but that was the reigning MLS cup champion.
00:34:57
Speaker
And like, and they, they looked like they were an even better team that year. That was a good team. Yeah, it was a very good team. It was like at the peak of their powers right before the summer hit and they lost the manager and their leading scorer and a bunch of players to injury. So that was kind of the last time NYCFC was a really good team.
00:35:18
Speaker
They kind of had a downward trend since then, starting to pick up a little bit. But yes, it was a great team. It was, you know, by the underlying numbers, looking at like expected goals and expected goals against.
00:35:30
Speaker
They were at that time, probably the best team in MLS. but they couldn't get it done. Yeah. And they, but they, they gave it their all. That's for sure. In the, in the home leg, ah Steph Fry probably had, i would say probably still his best game ever. I mean, and that was a, they, they put an insane amount of pressure on the Sounders, even after Diaz got that early goal.
00:35:52
Speaker
Yeah, I feel like, yeah I don't have it in front of me, but I feel like that the number of shots they took were outrageous. Yeah. ah you Well, starting 3-1 down, yeah they had a lot of ground to make up. And after that first call, I was like, oh, well, what's the point at this point? But they did. They tried. They did the best. I mean, it just wasn't enough.
00:36:12
Speaker
Yeah. Well, i this team has been an interesting one. they currently New York City FC currently sits fifth in the table. ah It's been an up and down year though.
00:36:23
Speaker
What, what do you like from a ah high level? What do you make of this game? They'd still have a chance to move up though and, and get ah a home, get home and home field advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Yeah, so right now they they don't control their destiny in terms of that, but they are tied with Charlotte on points.
00:36:39
Speaker
Charlotte has one more win, but it's equal on points. So since wins are the tiebreaker, if they win and Charlotte wins, it doesn't matter. But if they if Charlotte draws or loses and New York City can pick up more points, then they'll pass them and end up in that home playoff spot.
00:36:55
Speaker
If they get even a single point, i don't think anybody else can catch them. So I think it's either win and you're in if Charlotte draws or loses or draw and you're in if Charlotte loses. So obviously that would be the the best outcome. And they're definitely going to be going for it because getting that home field playoff of advantage is pretty big, especially if for New York City who plays in a baseball stadium.
00:37:16
Speaker
It makes a difference. like Their home record's outstanding. Yes. So this game will be played at city field. How much of a difference is that from playing at Yankee stadium? ah So the field dimensions aren't going to be that different.
00:37:29
Speaker
um I think the main thing is that it does kind of affect the crowd and they're able to be a little bit more on top of things in city field. So generally, generally the fan experience is better at city field than it is at Yankee stadium.
00:37:43
Speaker
um It doesn't really impact the actual play on the field that much though. And is the it is the home, i mean, is that something that we overstate? Because I feel like everyone talks about the dimensions at at Yankee Stadium especially, but is that maybe overstated or is it is there a real, like, is it is it a pronounced home field advantage that you think actually comes from the dimensions and not just the normal home advantage that comes from being an MLS? Yeah.
00:38:13
Speaker
Well, I think the big advantage in the dimensions is that New York City plays on it several times a year. And they play at Red Bull Arena, or I guess Sports Illustrated Arena now. um So it's not always going to be at those dimensions, and they do have to adapt.
00:38:27
Speaker
And you know sometimes they play even further afield than that. There's been a number of different stadiums that have counted as a home stadium. but I guess like, well, the way I'd say it is they are used to playing in that small space.
00:38:38
Speaker
Most teams that play in that small of a space do it maybe once or twice a season, or in the case of Seattle, haven't done it in three years. So there is a pretty big adjustment, I think, for teams who are not used to playing in those confines.
00:38:53
Speaker
And so is there anything though that New York city does particularly well because of the, the confines or is it just they're used to it? And that's it. it It just is like a familiarity thing.
00:39:06
Speaker
Well, I think in terms of team identity, if New York City has an identity, it's that they like to have the ball. They like to keep that pressure on high up and they like to high press. And with the new manager, it has not been as extreme. They're actually one of the teams that does not quite press as much in the final third this year.
00:39:24
Speaker
But that option is always available. So if you're in that tight space, it's a lot easier to set up your rest defense. You have less ground to cover. It's less of a risk to aggressively press because the players behind the press don't have to cover as much ground.
00:39:36
Speaker
yeah some there So in terms of the style of play and how New York City wants to play, the smaller field size does help with that. And they are kind of known for a team that likes being technical, likes holding onto the ball. So they try to sign players that fit that.
00:39:50
Speaker
don't know if the roster is perfectly fit for that as it is, but if you look through kind of the history of the team, that's kind of been what they go for. So speaking of, of players who are sort of standing out, uh, Alonzo Martinez is, is having another spectacular year.
00:40:06
Speaker
he's currently on 17 goals, in MLS play, at least what kind of player is he, what does he do? Well, is he someone that is going to be around or is he going to be the next guy that leaves, uh, New York city on a, on a big transfer?
00:40:20
Speaker
that's a big question so martinez came to new york city from lomo in the belgian league which is the city football group club they're in the second division belgium and he came in as a winger so when he came in nobody was thinking oh this is going to be the guy right like it felt like he was just kind of a add-on that they were doing a favor for to move this guy back to north america where he wanted to be and it wasn't until let's see i think he came in in late 2023 and it wasn't until i think well, maybe early to mid 2024, that he started being played at striker. And it was as a result of him having discussion with the coach. He's like, I think I can do this position.
00:40:56
Speaker
Can you give me a shot at it? And he took it and ran with it. So I don't know... if he's going to be a player that is looking out. He's not young.
00:41:06
Speaker
I think he's in his mid 20s. He's kind of been in that he's you know had that European experience. It didn't work out for him. He's come back and now he's the starting ah forward for the Costa Rica national team heading into the World Cup in 2026.
00:41:21
Speaker
So he's probably not a guy who wants to risk giving up that position. ah So I don't think he's going anywhere anytime soon. Now, I think once 2026 rolls around, we're going to see some movement after the World Cup because Matt Fries is likely going to be at least on the team, if not the starter for the U.S. men's national team.
00:41:36
Speaker
Alonso Martinez is likely to be there. So there are some players that might be looking to make their move after the World Cup. But I think until then, he's definitely going to be pretty happy where he... And in terms of style, he's he's a really interesting player because he doesn't have a lot of different...
00:41:52
Speaker
He doesn't have a lot of different things to his game. He's a beat you with speed, react quicker than everybody else on the field, make the most of small opportunities, and he can absolutely rip a shot from anywhere.
00:42:02
Speaker
So he gets a lot of really high quality chances just because he's so much quicker than everybody else in terms of reacting to where the ball is going to be, in terms of getting in behind center backs. He's not a big guy.
00:42:13
Speaker
So he's not out there winning aerial duels. He's not um fighting guys off the ball. but he is just beating them to the ball just by being quicker, faster. Like he's score he scored a number of goals off of rebounds just because he's the first one to get there.
00:42:26
Speaker
So that's the kind of thing you got to watch out for. His movement is really good. His speed is really good. He's so quick and he's so decisive. Like there's no like taking a second to think about what he's going to do.
00:42:37
Speaker
He's either immediately playing it to somebody else or he's taking a shot. And more often than not, it's taking the shot. So he's adapted his game to the center forward role. I think it's a much more natural fit.
00:42:49
Speaker
I think he was an okay winger, but as a center forward, I think he's, you know, one of the best in the league right now. And he's certainly got the goal scoring to show for it. So another player who has sort of gotten a lot of attention, in like you mentioned, in part because of his national team, uh, rise is Matt freeze.
Matt Freese and MLS Advanced Stats
00:43:06
Speaker
Uh, he is a, he got an interesting background. He, he went to an Ivy league school. He seems to be sort of a, um, a more cerebral type of, uh, of goalkeeper. He's very good on penalties, but what have you, or at least he's, he's gotten a reputation of being good on penalties.
00:43:22
Speaker
ah What do you make of Frieza's rise? And is this is this someone that you actually expect to be you know starting games for the U.S. in the World woke up i think that ah I think that he's the most likely player to start games for the USA, had the World Cup right now. like If you look at kind of the competition for that role, and think he's been pretty clearly the best, both for the club side and for the national team.
00:43:47
Speaker
um And I think he's really developed his game in the last couple of years. So he came from Philadelphia on a trade. And it's not usual for New York City to trade for players within the league. It's only happened a few times in the entire history of the team. So they acquired him from Philadelphia.
00:44:03
Speaker
Because I think partially for him, it was he didn't see any path to beating Blake for the starting spot. um Even though i think that right now, he's probably a better goalkeeper than Blake is at this point in his career.
00:44:14
Speaker
I think for him, it was, you know, he just didn't see a way through he wanted to trade. New York City had to replace Shawn Johnson, who had left for Toronto. And so he was an affordable option to do it. I think he's paid back. I think we're looking at the $300,000 to $400,000 in game for Matt Freese. I think more than Freese.
00:44:34
Speaker
Now, the interesting thing is back in 2023, which is what kind of the first year he was with the team, he wasn't the starter right away. and Instead, it was a different first-year starter, Luis Barraza, who plays now for DC United.
00:44:47
Speaker
or I think he still plays for DC United. think he's up at the end of the year. I'm not sure they'll be bringing him back. But Barrasso was more of a distributor. he He was more comfortable on the ball. He was a little bit better of a passer.
00:44:59
Speaker
And I think the coach at the time wanted that. I think the the numbers will tell you that there's really not much a goalkeeper could do with the ball that makes up for shot stopping, especially if there's a big difference.
00:45:10
Speaker
And Freeze is a much better shot stopper. And in fact, in 2023, when you looked at that, that was the year that New City missed the playoffs. If you looked at the the shot stopping rates for freeze versus Barasa and you just kind of like estimated what the rest of the season would look like if he had started from the beginning, it would have made up about eight 10 goals.
00:45:30
Speaker
Jeez. Which would have absolutely, because they just missed the playoffs. So in hindsight, yes, he was, he should have been the guy all along, but since then, yeah, he's been outstanding. He's earned his spot on the national team.
00:45:41
Speaker
He's an unquestioned starter. And I think that like going into 2026,
00:45:48
Speaker
He's going to be very focused on putting on a show, being really solid, going to the World Cup. And then after that, we'll see. I think I know that it was a I guess it was maybe it was ah an ASA stat that came out that sort of tried to give the absolute value of every player.
00:46:03
Speaker
And I just remember it just being absolutely dominated by goalkeepers because of the they just had this out like, I don't know. It's it's a weird thing because. Obviously, strikers and tens get most of the attention in terms of value. and and And frankly, that's where most of the spend is. And especially in MLS, you know you look at goalkeeper as a position where you can afford to go cheap, ah that you can you can spend a lot less money and get a lot of bang for your buck. But the numbers suggest that goalkeeper is like easily the most and in important position in terms of goal prevention, at least.
00:46:37
Speaker
Yeah, and it's a really interesting kind of like statistical quirk because, okay, most players don't have that much impact on whether or not a goal is scored or not scored, right? I mean, when you look at like the goal probability changes, which is what a stat like goals added measures, it's pretty small. Anything over the more than like 2.5% or like likelihood of a goal being scored is a really big change, okay?
00:47:01
Speaker
And even like if you kind of work it out, a player contributing... 5% or point and zero five of a goal difference over the course of a game is big. Like that's huge that that separates 90th percentile players from 50th percentile players. So small, small differences.
00:47:19
Speaker
But then you get to a goalkeeper and a shot on target that is 75% likely to go in if you save that you've saved well, essentially point 75 goal. So you have players who can play an entire season in the outfield and not come close to that.
00:47:34
Speaker
Right. So the impact, yeah, the impact of goalkeepers is huge. Now, the thing, the next thing is, well, what is the difference between goalkeepers? And so for the most part, goalkeepers actually tend to perform very similarly.
00:47:47
Speaker
um They save the easy shots, they miss the hard shots. And the difference between a really good goalkeeper and a really bad goalkeeper can be just a few shots here or there, right? And it can be a big statistical difference, but it's hard to be sure, you know, how much of this is quality, how much of this is luck. There's a lot of different things that go into it.
00:48:05
Speaker
You can have player like Zach Steffen, who I think last year was one of the worst goalkeepers statistically in the history of the data that we have, right? Right. This year, he's been one of the best. Well, what is Zach Steffen? Is he an elite shot server? Is he not?
00:48:18
Speaker
I mean, his his record with the national team and going back says he's pretty good. But then at the same time last year, he looked really bad. So how much of that is actually getting picked up by the data? How much of it is real?
00:48:29
Speaker
And then how much do you have to spend to improve? Because that also is what drives the market value. you have St. Louis spending big on Berkey, and they've gotten what they've spent back on him, for sure. Like he's been an outstanding goalkeeper his entire time. But people are kind of laughed at that movie. they're Like, why would you spend that much on a goalkeeper?
00:48:46
Speaker
When you can get a pretty good option for cheaper? I think that like, in the end, that move has worked out for them. But if it didn't, that would have been a lot of money spent on something that they probably could have gotten cheaper. So yeah, goalkeepers are really important, but you can get relative quality for cheaper. So that drives the price down.
00:49:06
Speaker
Well, that's it. I feel like it's a good transition into ah a tool that you recently built that's through Tableau. And it it basically takes, if I understand correctly, it takes the the data from ASA and sort of makes it into more visually appealing, visually appealing.
00:49:23
Speaker
ah digestible kind of bits and pieces. And it's ah it's a really fun tool to play around with it. um It's called the an MLS Advanced Stats dashboard. I don't know. What's the... Is there a... don't know. I guess we you would have to probably find it through your BlueSky account or something like that because it's not a this is not a ah URL that I think people are going fall into, right?
00:49:44
Speaker
No, exactly. I probably, I just need to like make my own website that has like all the links in one place. Now, um the way it essentially works is that Tableau is a data visualization software, right?
00:49:56
Speaker
And it's used a lot in enterprise. So big businesses use it. And there's a lot of different paid tiers to it. But they do have this public tier that is basically, it's free to use, you know, you have a limit on how much you can store in there that I've hit a few times. um But You can save all these things, you can post them online, you can share them. And then in some cases, you can embed them in websites or whatever. And I've done that with ASA a few times.
00:50:22
Speaker
But what it does is it takes all this underlying data, and it's meant to just help you put it into a way that you can communicate with people who are looking at it. So like I said, in the enterprise version of it, it's a lot of businesses needing dashboards for specific things. And you can get a job as a Tableau developer working entirely with the program.
00:50:41
Speaker
um I started using it because it connected to Excel really easily. And that was the extent of my skill at the time. And it's what would could be called a low code ah visualization software. So you have to know a little bit of coding and it has its own kind of language attached to it, but you don't have to know a lot. And it's really easy to look up tutorials.
00:50:58
Speaker
So it's very natural transition if you haven't used data visualization software before. So that's why I use that plus the ability to kind of publish everything online. And they host it for you too. So you don't have to separately find somewhere to host the dashboards.
00:51:13
Speaker
All right. But it the downside is that it's very hard to directly link to like, so you have to have this big ugly link that's in my blue sky account. And I think I put it on ah X or Twitter as well, even though I don't use that anymore.
00:51:25
Speaker
And that way you can access it and see it how it's meant to be seen. Yeah. And so yeah i'm I'm just curious, like, we don't, i don't want to keep you too long, but what are some of the things that you've sort of in, in doing, going through all this data?
00:51:40
Speaker
Is there any, and don't know, either players or teams that are heading into the playoffs, heading into this sort of end of season award, you know, and we're in the end of season awards right now.
00:51:50
Speaker
ah Anyone that really stands out as someone or a either a player or a team that ah maybe is not getting as much shine as, as you think they deserve. Yeah, I think that's a good question. I feel like it's been a really interesting season in that we've had some really good teams, but a lot of the really good and teams i haven't had like really great players.
00:52:08
Speaker
And then you've had a lot of really great players, but they haven't always necessarily been attached to really great teams. So if you look at kind of the top of the MVP race, it's messy, obviously. I mean, in my opinion, I recognize the MVP is a little more of subjective um I voted for messy. I'll just put it out there.
00:52:27
Speaker
I don't see how you could pick anybody else. like yeah He's just so far ahead of it everyone. Yeah. but I don't know that that my Miami team is necessarily good. um I mean, famously lost to the Sounders three zero in the league's cup final.
00:52:41
Speaker
Yeah, exactly. Exactly. with Messi, who, has since that game has gone on an absolute tear. He sure has. i mean Before that game, was on a tear, too. It's Messi, but, like, after that, you know, he's found yeah his energy on new levels everywhere.
00:52:57
Speaker
but Yeah. And so I, it's tough for me to like be, Oh yeah, well this team is a little bit under it. I think New York city is a bit of an underrated team. They've played yeah really tough down the stretch. um I think the additions in the summer, two big ones, they added a defensive midfielder, Aiden O'Neill last thing, trying to kill James Sands at the U S men's national team friendly yesterday.
00:53:17
Speaker
And Nicholas Fernandez from Spain. And he's come in and played really well. It's like that kind of DP playmaker. that we've needed for a while. So I think that they're in a good place.
00:53:28
Speaker
I think it would make a huge difference if they could get that home field advantage. But I think they're a tough team coming down the stretch. I think Charlotte is a team that's record is better than they are as a team. And i would if I were a playoff team and getting them in the first round, I'd be happier with that.
00:53:45
Speaker
I find the entire West to be terrifying from an Eastern Conference perspective. Because I think Seattle, of course, won Leagues Cup. Just one of the most devastatingly consistent teams in Major League Soccer.
00:53:58
Speaker
LAFC seems to be a completely different team with Sun in there. And Wonga has gotten even better since he came in. And he was already great. I think Vancouver's had one of the best seasons we've seen from any team, despite not really having any of the stars, but then they've added Mueller and Gald back. So I feel like the Western conference is just so much tougher than the Eastern conference this season.
00:54:21
Speaker
That's, that's very refreshing to hear because of course, all the commentary, ah is that yeah all you just look at the point totals and the West is a, is a shit show and the East is a, so, but I mean, it is interesting. You you look at expected points, which I think is a, I feel like is a pretty good metric i from ASA.
00:54:42
Speaker
The top two teams and expected points are LAFC and Vancouver. And the, and three of the top six are actually ah more than that. ah Five of the top eight are from the West.
00:54:53
Speaker
Yeah. ah it's It's actually like a like by the expected goal totals, like but this is an expected points obviously uses expected ah goals as ah as sort of like the the basis for their ah for its numbers.
00:55:07
Speaker
But it's it's it's fascinating to see like the the metrics seem to really like the West, even though the, you know, like the, what would you call the top line numbers suggest that what East is this powerhouse.
00:55:22
Speaker
Yeah. And i to a certain extent, you know, teams play each other. And i think one of the things about the East is that they have had a ah couple more bottom feeders to really pump up numbers. So every team got to play a DC United twice.
00:55:35
Speaker
You know, they were not a good team, despite I think that New York lost to them both times. Montreal, and another not good team. And there are bad teams in the West, but I think I think even the bad teams in the West, like the Galaxy this year, are still tougher than the bad teams in the East. So you get more of those inflated numbers um from kind of beating up on weaker teams. But I think if you just look at the rosters, if you look at the quality, I just think the Western Conference is better this year.
00:56:05
Speaker
And I feel like whoever comes out of it is going to be favored in the MLS Cup final. So I have a, i have a pet theory that I want to throw at you and I'm, I'm curious what you make of it. So I went through, i basically the history of ASA data and looked at teams specifically by, um, expected goals from the run of play. So I, I eliminated penalties. I eliminated set pieces and I just looked at open play,
00:56:34
Speaker
uh, school, uh, expected goal scoring. And I was surprised to see that you look at the top of that list and obviously Miami is all over it. Right. But you get best past there. And there's a lot of teams they that correlate to really good performances in the playoffs.
00:56:50
Speaker
Uh, it's seemingly, uh, And that in fact, over-performing in the regular season doesn't necessarily, like ah in a lot of teams that ah are on there are like performing about right where you would expect them to perform. Like they're not having these dramatic over-performances. And I'm just curious if open play in your perspective, or if you've done any research into this, if open play scoring has more correlation to playoff success.
00:57:18
Speaker
So I think that, you know, what what you're going to find is that there's a common cause there and that open play scoring is going to be more favorable for the teams that are more in control of games. well So teams that have higher, do you say, field tilt, where they're in the opponent's third more frequently, they're creating those chances more frequently.
00:57:36
Speaker
And, you know, by doing that, by keeping the ball in your opponent's third, it also has that effect of decreasing goals allowed so being in control of these games and you see it like so the columbus crew i'd say were one of the you know when they won ms cup they were the big field tilt team they weren't necessarily putting up the same numbers as other teams with the same possession but it's just like they had so much possession it's so much of the ball they didn't give it away so the teams they played just never really got the chance to break out and make things happen la galaxy last year They were very dominant in terms of their ability to control the ball. I mean, Ricky Pooge, don't know I'm having trouble with his name, but but he was ah he was just moving the ball up every single time. So they were just constantly able to keep that ball in their opponent's area. didn't matter. They could not stop them.
00:58:25
Speaker
So I do think it tends to be that those teams do better in the playoffs because they have more of that identity. they are more capable of really holding on. Now, playoffs do have an element of randomness. Like, you could be like RSL, who win a playoff game without taking...
00:58:40
Speaker
but They didn't take a shot. You don't have to go there. that was against the Sounders. like you gather We get it. They won a game without taking a single shot. And there is randomness in the playoffs. that does happen.
00:58:52
Speaker
But I think that there's a little bit less randomness because these teams that are like the teams that have the identity of controlling games end up being the ones that make it to the end. And when you get to the playoffs, you know,
00:59:06
Speaker
Probably like 10 of the teams that make the playoffs are built that way. So, of course, one of them is likely to make it to the end. But I think if you look at, you know, the MLS Cup final from last year, the the Red Bulls were a little lucky to make it to the final. And I don't just say that because they beat New York City.
00:59:20
Speaker
I think that they weren't a great team that got a little hot, made it to him MLS Cup finals, but played a team that knew how to control the ball and knew exactly what they wanted to do and did it. And so i don't I think that it was a very good matchup for the Galaxy, who had just lost Pooj to the knee injury.
00:59:36
Speaker
um And if they had faced a team that was more capable of controlling the game, they might have had more trouble. But they kind of got the best possible opponent for them in that time. So I do think that those open play, that open play XG reflects that control.
00:59:53
Speaker
I think that set piece actually is really important, but if it's not a team that emphasizes it, it's not part of their identity, it can be a little bit more random. So like, yeah, a team could have a lot of set piece goals, but are they do they have a lot of set piece goals because they focus on set pieces or is it just, that's how it worked out that season.
01:00:12
Speaker
So, but I think that open play is a lot more repeatable because it reflects that control of the game. Well, I definitely like that theory. It feels like it makes... i always like it when data and narrative can meet and tell a...
01:00:26
Speaker
A nice story that makes sense logically. So I appreciate that, Paul. ah But yeah, well, ah that's mainly what I wanted to to talk you about. I really appreciate, I've been wanting to, I always am looking for excuses to talk to interesting people.
01:00:39
Speaker
And you're definitely one of the people I think is ah super interesting and in terms of the way you look at data, the way you gather data. I've been really i recently joined the ASA community. ah discord because I became a patron, which may as well plug for people to do.
01:00:55
Speaker
If you like the stuff, if you were like me and you just like numbers and you like what ASA is doing, they they do have a patron, a Patreon account. And it's it's only $5 to enter. There's a lot of fun, ah interesting conversations in their Discord that I i absolutely enjoy ah popping into and and just being sort of a layman that and it gets to see smart people talking about stuff. But ah Paul, thank you for for coming on here and giving us a little education on New York City FC.
01:01:24
Speaker
ah where can they Where can people find your work? So I'll publish on American Soccer Analysis from time to time, especially if I'm working on something kind of bigger. And since I've finished the big dashboard project, I have a few ideas that I might be hammering out over the next couple months.
01:01:39
Speaker
I also write for the Outfield, which is kind of a smaller New York City publication. We publish every now and then. um Definitely worth a follow, but don't expect it to be blowing up your inbox. And then I also am on Blue Sky primarily. That's my my main social media.
01:01:54
Speaker
um And I also have a sub stack that you can find through that. But that's that's just for kind of my offhand thoughts when I'm working on a project. Absolutely. Well, again, thank you for for coming on here.
01:02:06
Speaker
i we will hopefully have a good game on Saturday. And yeah, well, ah You're listening to No Saudi At This, part of the Center Heart Podcast Network.
01:02:17
Speaker
All right. Thank you so much.
01:02:47
Speaker
Let's go and Sounders. um