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Episode 331: Matchday Preview: Can we make it 5?! Milwall away!
151 Plays13 days ago
Southampton – Can we really make it 5 in a row? I sure hope so! But the Den is a tough place to visit at any time.
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Transcript
Match Preview: Southampton vs Millwall
00:00:54
Global Sports Podcast Network
Millwall, a team doing pretty well on the table. I predicted them to do so earlier in the season, but sir but lots of players out injured at the moment, it has to be said. They yeah they did win in the week against Sheffield Wednesday in in a competitive game, which, you know, I don't want to ah you know to to spread too much on on Wednesday, but they're in a tough position at
Team Form and Challenges
00:01:23
Global Sports Podcast Network
the moment. So for it to be a competitive game, now a 1-0 win from Millwall in the 71st minute, and if you so you know watch the game and see the stats, it looks like a very...
00:01:34
Global Sports Podcast Network
balanced, competitive game. So, you know, really, ah feel like we should be taking this opportunity to kick on. And, you know, based on the form we're in at the moment, we should be, you know, we should be putting them to bed and and making it five wins on the bounce. And ah it's difficult. It's hard to tread the line, right? Because, you know, the con the way the team is playing at the moment has instilled this confidence, it's definitely in me. I'm flying so high, I feel like we're never going to get beat again, but obviously we are not going to go through the entire season without losing another match. It's just ah not viable, not feasible, not realistic, and you know, Den is as good a place as any to crash that back to reality.
Strategic Decisions and Player Highlights
00:02:27
Global Sports Podcast Network
It is a ah tough place to go to, and you know, if they
00:02:32
Global Sports Podcast Network
come out very quick and get a goal, it's going to be a difficult place to play. I mean, it's a difficult place to play anyway, even with, you know, their injuries. But, you know, they they've had a good start to the season, but with just two points ah from the last four prior to the game against Sheffield Wednesday, it's if you look at it based on form, it's something we should be taking.
00:03:02
Global Sports Podcast Network
Some interesting
00:03:05
Global Sports Podcast Network
thoughts, something I didn't manage to touch on yesterday, in fact, was ah k Quasi coming in for for Jack Stephens. As Conda's come out and said that that was completely a tactical decision. saw that Leicester had pace on that side to deal with, so he brought in k Quasi because he was going to be more able to handle that pace and deal with it. And that's just an interesting insight into the level of detail and the mind and the thought path that Tonda puts into these games. We know that he's very detail-orientated, detail-focused, and will have studied this Millwall team. Yeah.
00:03:47
Global Sports Podcast Network
So you've got to have the confidence that that's going to go through and follow the plan because, I mean, so far we get to see anything other than it go into the plan. So why not? I guess also honourable shout out to Taylor Harwood-Bennis and Leo Sienza, who ah perhaps unsurprisingly, after the couple of games they've had this week, ah both made it into the championship team of the week, which is just fantastic stuff. I mean, it's not that long ago...
00:04:17
Global Sports Podcast Network
Really, in the scheme of things, that we were talking about some of these players, are particularly Harwood Bellis, who's under criticism for really not kicking into gear this season at all, um was sort of floundering and struggling and just not finding the form that we knew that he was capable of because we've seen it before. We saw it last time he was in the championship.
00:04:38
Global Sports Podcast Network
And it's just, it's got to fantastic for him to have that confidence back and that uplift to be playing as well as he's playing. And, you know, rightly so i honored with this team of the week. And I mean, Sienza, well, I mean, we ah gush on Leo on this show frequently and I think it's fully deserved. He, is just such a tremendous player. He's got so much natural ability, but it's just the personality he brings to the pitch and just the way that he...
Expectations and Historical Context
00:05:17
Global Sports Podcast Network
inspires confidence and inspires quality ah both on and off the pitch i think i said said it the other night when uh i think it just speaks volumes that actually in the the main photo of him celebrating with his player of the game trophy man of the match trophy to uh to be sat there with the sign that he has kept from the uh
00:06:07
Global Sports Podcast Network
you know it's It's that invincible feeling that it's it's infectious. i mean It's clearly the the feeling that Tonda has brought to the first team and instilled that confidence in them to go and play like that. It's contagious. It's spreading because it's it's going to go through the fan base.
00:06:26
Global Sports Podcast Network
At some point, we it's not going to be as easy as that, and I fully accept that and acknowledge that. But it's just nice to enjoy it while it lasts.
00:06:38
Global Sports Podcast Network
ah And, you know, it's going to be gonna be a good game. ah Taking a look back at some of the stats from ah historic encounters between...
00:06:52
Global Sports Podcast Network
between Saints and Millwall. So in the last 10 games, actually, we do quite well against them. We've got five wins. ah There were three draws, and we have only lost twice. ah 70% of those matches have had two or more goals, but only 30% have had three or more goals. So if you go by history, it's probably going to be a rather low scoring affair. That's certainly what the stats would suggest. You know, I like the, uh,
00:07:28
Global Sports Podcast Network
a particular website that concatenates all of the form and all of the ah data for me and puts a little synopsis and fits it in a nice way that I find particularly easy to read, but that's just because that is how my brain works. But look, it has to be said that Millwall's home form is nothing short of exceptional. right In their last five home games, four wins and a draw,
00:07:53
Global Sports Podcast Network
it's It's good. They're a tough team to beat at home. um you know Both of their losses in their poorer run of form coming into this come from away games as well as a draw away. So you know that's something to be wary of. We know that it's a tough place to go and play and it's going to be maybe the hardest test we faced under Tonda in that respect.
00:08:19
Global Sports Podcast Network
think Leicester should have been the highest quality of opponent we played. I mean, I'll hear an argument against that for Millwall for sure, but especially whilst they've got so many players of their first team out injured, I think they've as many as 12 players unavailable selection at the moment.
00:08:36
Global Sports Podcast Network
um You would you know think that maybe that was the case, but you still have to bear in mind that That is a ground that is going to be loud, it's going to be hostile, it's going be difficult to play in. And that, you know, it's the first proper, proper test of a proper gritty, hard place to go for the team. And it's going to be very interesting to see how...
00:09:02
Global Sports Podcast Network
tonder fares with that and how the team handles that i mean that said go out and score two goals in 10 minutes is a very easy way to to turn that on a dime right so you know that that could be the answer um but obviously as we know looking at our form four wins on the bounce uh You know, not a lot else to say about that.
00:09:27
Global Sports Podcast Network
ah The last meeting in the championship ah ended with us winning 2-0 against Millwall. Our form is now coming out as average away, whereas as as discussed, Millwall's home form is good.
Lineup Predictions and Strategies
00:09:44
Global Sports Podcast Network
ah The predicted line, this is the the bit I like to go for. The main bet would be ah both teams to score and over two and a half goals to align with historical trends, which is interesting because only 30% of those games go that high. So
00:10:04
Global Sports Podcast Network
ah it it offers the secondary angle of Millwall to avoid defeat. So I think it's pushing for a a 1-all or 2-all draw based off of the data that it's giving, which is yeah it's certainly interesting. I mean, I think a point away from home, a team and a place like Millwall, in the context of the whole season and not the context of the short-term memory of the run we're on, would be a perfectly reasonable and expected result.
00:10:40
Global Sports Podcast Network
I think, you know, what as a standard to sort go up, a draw away and a win at home against every team would set you in, you know, the best form available, really. But I don't know. i still ah still feel like there's more more in it for us than that. but so But we'll get to that. That is for sure.
00:11:02
Global Sports Podcast Network
Right. That is quite enough waffle for me for section one. Let's have a little break and hear from our partners at Bionic. before I try and guess our team line-up.
00:11:50
Global Sports Podcast Network
Okay, and we are back. So obviously i am recording this on the Thursday and as of yet, no press conference from Tonda to help me out with any team news. However, what we do know coming into this game is that Flynn Downs is out suspended after picking up his fifth yellow ah against ah Leicester on Tuesday night. So he won't be available for selection.
00:12:19
Global Sports Podcast Network
ah And to be honest, it's a surprise that it's as low as five for Flynn. For me, that's the the big shock to come out from that. But, you know, that leaves an interesting problem in the middle of the field, which I will get to. But, you know, as is tradition, I'm going to start at the back.
00:12:36
Global Sports Podcast Network
Bazzouna hasn't put a foot wrong for me. ah a tremendous save that he made in the Leicester game to keep us 1-0 up. Because if Leicester go and equalise that quickly after we score, we're in for a very different game, I think. So it's not to be overlooked the quality and importance of that save. I know that he wasn't particularly busy for the rest of the night, but that in itself, not a problem for me. ah You know, he clearly is comfortable playing around at the back in the way that Tonda does seem to like to do. The main difference between, you know, the criticism that's drawn from, say, the Russell Martin days of when we knock it around at the back And now where we do some knocking around at the back is that actually when we move forward, it is effective, it is organized, and it is in numbers, and that is important. um
00:13:28
Global Sports Podcast Network
And so, yeah, Baz for me, because he suits that style much more. He's, you know, comfortable with his feet. No concerns from me. Definitely the better of the two options when you take those things into account, in my opinion. Yeah.
00:13:44
Global Sports Podcast Network
Fullbacks is an interesting one, or wingbacks, I suppose. ah Tom Fellows was an absolute sensation for me. And whilst it's true, um defensively, he is not the the most defensively gifted player. He does enough to make it work and pushes the line high enough against the opposition that it doesn't really become that much of a problem.
00:14:10
Global Sports Podcast Network
So it will be he would be one of the first names on the sheet for me ah based purely on on his performances so far because he ah he's just been fantastic. I haven't got a single bad word to say about him. And like I said in the review the other night, I think there was one time in the entire game where he wasn't the first to the ball to get that cross in.
00:14:35
Global Sports Podcast Network
ah running past the Leicester fullback. So, yeah, that's ah that's ah how I expect that to go, especially with Millwall. I would expect them to line up with a back four, so I don't think pushing the fullback that much further back will be too much of a challenge based coming up against the ah the shape we're going to have. On the other side, it's it's got to be Manning, right? How can you leave him out? uh, set piece becoming slowly in, or i guess quickly becoming set piece expert, uh, and set piece excellence across the board. That's clearly becoming a more and more important part of our game. we've seen it, you know, we saw two goals from set pieces, ah on Tuesday and yeah. Uh,
00:15:28
Global Sports Podcast Network
Like i said, drew a bit of criticism for me in the review because just a bit too reluctant to make that forward pass, in my opinion. But pretty solid, didn't really put a foot wrong. That might just be more my frustration than anything. That might be doing exactly what he's been told to do because they do tend to push up on the right-hand side of the pitch with fellows as opposed to coming up on this left.
00:15:52
Global Sports Podcast Network
um and you know if Sienza's not available because he's floating over towards the centre or more to the right because that's the side we're going to play up, then the turnaround and switching across the back is really the only choice Manning has at that point. So I can't criticise him too heavily for it, um but for me, hasn't really put a foot wrong other than that.
00:16:11
Global Sports Podcast Network
Definitely got to be in and amongst it. Probably won't get 90 minutes because that wing-back role is a tiring role to play up and down the pitch. It's a lot. ah Wouldn't be surprised to see Wellington ah get probably half an hour.
00:16:24
Global Sports Podcast Network
um You know, at this point, got keep some legs fresh. ah Heading into next week's games. um centre-backs, I suspect we will see Jack Stephens coming in, back into the team. um You know, Tonda was pretty clear that Quasi was put out as an answer to the pace problem that Leicester were going to bring. And whilst I can't claim to know a huge amount about Millwall's attacking line, i I suspect that in an environment that has the potential to be... ah
00:17:02
Global Sports Podcast Network
Pretty hostile. ah An experienced head of Jack Stephens is probably more what he's called for. ah And, yeah, pairing up, of course, with Nathan Wood and Harwood Bellis, who at this point have clearly done enough to to solidify their names on the team sheet. A clean sheet on Tuesday, something that don't think any of us would have seen coming or have predicted for the longest time.
00:17:28
Global Sports Podcast Network
as a Saints fan. And of course, two goals for Howard Bellis would be... ah it would certainly be a strange decision to leave him off after that. And Nathan Wood has just been solid.
00:17:42
Global Sports Podcast Network
He's really stepped up to the plate recently me um and staked his claim to that place in the team. And I think it's going to be very hard to dislodge him because he's just... A really solid player that I have no real criticism of. ah Again, just night and day from any of these previews from three, four weeks ago. But just the confidence that's been inspired through the team ah shows in huge amounts.
00:18:11
Global Sports Podcast Network
So then moving up the park to the middle, ah we talked yesterday about the stats of Caspiander against Leicester. And for me, ah he has an absolute engine on him. I fully expect to see him play and start on on Saturday and play. i would probably expect to see him changed because he has played a lot of minutes in the last seven days playing on Saturday and on Tuesday. ah But with you know Flynn out of the question and Shea Charles still not fit and Romelu still not ah quite up to a level of fitness. I expect Yander to start ah and I would not be surprised to see Cam Bragg sliding alongside him. You know, we trusted him away at Charlton and he had an an excellent performance.
00:19:02
Global Sports Podcast Network
and just ah give him another opportunity to step up and and see how it goes. Just ah exactly what we want as the DNA of Southampton, right? Coming up through the academy and making their way into the first team is is a part of our club's identity and definitely a part that Sports Republic are keen to sell as part of our club's identity. So, if tom you know, Tonda doing that, as well as having the faith in Cam, as, you know, he's the under-21s captain for Eckert at the start of the season. So he knows him well. He knows that he'll have that level of trust in him. That's what I expect. um
00:19:43
Global Sports Podcast Network
And yeah, the front three has got to stay the same for me. How do you change that level of attack, that level of ah creativity? Sienza, Azaz, Armstrong...
00:19:55
Global Sports Podcast Network
ah Yeah, it has to be. You don't mess with it when it's working as well as it is. And, you know, I would i would say that if you're actually going based off positions, Fellows is one of those attacking forward players because this formation is really slightly skewed. It's not really a traditional three or five back. It's not quite a fallback with Manning as a fullback and Fellows as ah ah as a winger. It's kind of a hybrid system going on, but that's what happens when you try to to put on paper a game that is as fast underfoot, and especially in the style that we seem accustomed to playing in at the moment. um
00:20:37
Global Sports Podcast Network
Again, Armstrong's played a lot of minutes ah this week and just absolutely ran and ran and ran. for the entire 90 minutes on Tuesday. So, um although i anticipate him starting, I wouldn't expect him to make the full 90, as is Sienza, we see, because he brings so much energy. It's almost...
00:21:03
Global Sports Podcast Network
almost struggles to get to 90 minutes because as well as that, he just gets kicked a lot because he is quick with his feet and that's that's some players answer to him. So, ah you know, expect rotation at some point.
00:21:17
Global Sports Podcast Network
I guess when you're talking, if we're talking about the bench, the the most interesting part is who and what central midfielders we have on the bench to replace Yander and Bragg. Like I say, Yander's played a lot of minutes this week, so do we see, we probably see Barnaby Williams on the bench, I would imagine, although I can't imagine Tonda being too keen to have...
00:21:41
Global Sports Podcast Network
ah Williams and Bragg on the pitch at the same time. Maybe that would be slightly too much expectation on the youngsters shoulders. Um, so do we see Romelu come in? Is he fit enough to maybe play 15, 20 minutes?
00:21:57
Global Sports Podcast Network
I mean, you can just imagine the boost to the the noise from the away fans that that would bring if that is the case. Um, It's going to be interesting, ah for sure. that's
Match Predictions and Listener Engagement
00:22:11
Global Sports Podcast Network
Anyway, that's how I see the line-up going, you know more or less unchanged. I think that's one change, right? Stephens for quasi, or two changes because Dan's not available and bringing Bragg in. so but But like we've talked about before, pretty consistent.
00:22:26
Global Sports Podcast Network
One or two changes for specific reasons, but a pretty consistent spine and groups of players playing together who are building that chemistry and that ability to play together. And I mean, look, when you say it out loud... If you have running at you at pace, Adam Armstrong, you know, two seasons goal, the top championship goal scorer by a ah bit.
00:22:54
Global Sports Podcast Network
ah Leo Sienza, who is frighteningly fast with his feet and and has that quality. Tom Fellows, who is also incredibly fast, but has such good control of the ball.
00:23:06
Global Sports Podcast Network
ah And Fina Zas, who's now scored, what, four goals in three games and a couple of assists to boot. Like, you are... That's that's a scary sounding front line-up. You're not going to want to come up against it. So ah that's that's how I see it lining up. And I think that it'll play out quite well.
00:23:27
Global Sports Podcast Network
um But yeah, that's that's that. Let's move on to score predictions. But first, let's have a little break and hear a word from our partners at Zencastr.
00:23:36
Global Sports Podcast Network
Here at the Global Sports Podcast Network, we spent a lot of time selecting our delivery platform. and Zencaster came out the clear winner. With 4K video recording from your phone and AI editing that automatically removes all those ums and ahs, it's super easy to start a podcast. It sounds great and is delivered efficiently. If you're ready to tell your story, check out the link in the show description and learn more about Zencaster.
00:24:11
Global Sports Podcast Network
Oh, it's tricky. It's tricky. Lots of injuries for Millwall, but like I said, a tough, tough place to go. i think 3-1. I think that we will concede, but I think we will probably concede once the game is already pretty much out of reach. I think that we will score three in the first half, probably between 20th minute and the minute.
00:24:41
Global Sports Podcast Network
three in pretty quick succession. and then we'll try and take our foot off the gas again in the second half as we have, you know, been seen to do. and I just think maybe Millwall will snatch one at some point in the second half just to make it slightly nervier. Uh, but that's it. Three, one, uh, goals coming from, well, obviously, Armstrong fellows and, uh, let's chuck, uh, Leo Sienza goal in for good measure. ah Yeah, I think that's ah pretty reasonable, a pretty sensible, balanced way to view it.
00:25:19
Global Sports Podcast Network
I mean, it's it's as balanced as I can achieve, to be honest. Part of me thinks it could be a nice, comfortable six ni win, but that's just the overexcited part of me, I think, really feeding into how well we're doing at the moment. But look, whatever happens, it is going to be an exciting and interesting game. So anyway, that is all that I have got time for today. Please let me know in the comments or on social media what your score prediction is and how you think we are going to get on against Millwall.
00:25:58
Global Sports Podcast Network
I love to hear from you, and I can't wait to see how crazy or sensible you think my prediction is. Let us know. Let me know on all the socials, TikTok, X, Facebook, YouTube, Instagram, absolutely everywhere. If you can think of it, we are on it. Look us up. We are GSPN Southampton, ah and regardless of how it plays out tomorrow, whether I am absolutely bang on or overly optimistic or not optimistic enough, whatever it plays out, we will be back to talk about it on Monday morning.
00:26:38
Global Sports Podcast Network
ah But until then, hope you all have a wonderful weekend. And come on, you saints!