Speaker
The latest labour market update from the ABS has both good and bad news. It was solid jobs growth, but the unemployment rate jumped to 4.3% in February. It's surprising, especially since economists had predicted it would stay steady at 4.1%. And the forecast rise of around 20,000 new jobs was wrong by more than half as employment increased by 49,000 people. The increase in people actively looking for work The participation rate rose 0.2 points to equal record highs of 66.9%, contributed to the rise in the unemployment rate. The number of unemployed people grew by 35,000. I also note the rise in jobs was primarily driven by part-time roles. I read part-time employment jumped by 79,400 to 4.6 million, while full-time employment fell by 30,500 to 10.1 million. Sean Crick, the ABS head of Labor Statistics, noted that more people, especially those aged 65 and over, moved into part-time employment and fewer people are retiring compared to a year ago. Harry McCauley from Oxford Economics Australia commented that due to recent interest rate rises and the conflict in the Middle East, they've adjusted their unemployment forecast. They now expect near-term unemployment to keep rising and to rise faster through 2026, potentially peaking at just under 4.6% in early 2027. When job growth is strong, especially in part-time roles, it can draw more marginal workers into the labour market. which may lift unemployment. We'll be watching the next labour market updates closely.