Halfway to Hungary: Jonathan Rauch on the Authoritarian Playbook that Trump Borrowed from a Small, Landlocked Central European State

So where exactly is Trump’s America? According to the Brookings fellow Jonathan Rauch, the world’s largest economic, military and cultural power is “half way to Hungary” - the small, landlocked Central European country run by an equally small and landlocked man called Viktor Orban. For Rauch, this suggests that America is on its way to becoming the sort of pathetically petty patrimonial state that the wannabe dictator Orban is trying to establish in Hungary. But the idea of the world’s dominant superpower being “halfway to Budapest” sounds more like the title of a characteristically absurd central European novel. It suggests that Trump’s America is, in fact, currently lost in the mid-Atlantic. It’s nowhere. And if making America great again really does require borrowing anything from a country as small and landlocked as Hungary, then I fear for the historical significance of both Trump and his MAGA movement. Surely they could come up with a more original playbook than that?

1. America is Following the “Hungarian Playbook” of Modern Authoritarianism Rauch warns that Trump is deploying Viktor Orbán’s four-part strategy: sue critics into bankruptcy, use regulatory power to threaten licenses, buy out media outlets, and intimidate advertisers. This represents a new form of authoritarianism that doesn’t require tanks or military coups.

2. The Rise of the “Woke Right” - Postmodern Tactics Adopted by Conservatives The right has borrowed from postmodern philosophy the idea that there’s no objective truth, only power and narrative control. This creates a “postmodern right” that focuses on winning stories rather than establishing facts - exemplified by claims about vaccine dangers or election fraud.

3. Constitutional Crisis is Already Underway, Not Coming Rauch argues we’re not heading toward a constitutional crisis - we’re already in one. He points to executive orders targeting political enemies and the “naked politicization” of prosecutorial systems as evidence that democratic norms have already been breached.

4. 2028, Not 2026, Will Be the Real Test While Rauch expects the 2026 midterms to be relatively fair (70-80% likelihood), he’s deeply concerned about 2028. The administration won’t have enough time to fully implement election interference by 2026, but 2028 could see systematic attempts to rig the democratic process.

5. Resistance Requires Slowing Down Authoritarian “Shock and Awe” The most effective resistance strategy is to slow down Trump’s rapid implementation of authoritarian measures through litigation and civil society pushback. Early capitulation doesn’t work - it only invites more demands. The key is preventing the normalization of antidemocratic behavior.

Keen On America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe