Few people experienced the Dot-Com bubble with more vertiginous intensity than Bill Gross [https://www.linkedin.com/in/billgrossidealab/], the Pasadena-based founder of Idealab and many many other internet startups over the last 30 years. So when I sat down with Gross at DLD, I couldn’t resist opening with the boom/bubble gambit. How, I asked him, does today’s AI hysteria compare with the Web 1.0 madness of the Nineties? While Gross - whose current ProRata.ai play is focused on protecting creativity in the age of generative AI - doesn’t believe that today’s boom is akin to the Dot-Com bubble, there are similarities. We are at what Gross calls a “Napster moment” in terms of making the big LLMs accountable for all the content they are illegally crawling (ie: stealing). And to get beyond this moment, he says, everyone from Google and OpenAI to Perplexity and Anthropic, needs to move to a “Spotify model” that fairly shares revenue with the human creators of knowledge.

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Why Today's AI Boom Is No Dot-Com Bubble

Yesterday’s show [https://keenon.substack.com/p/why-europe-must-learn-the-language] from the DLD conference was about the need for Europe to relearn the language of power. Today, things get even more dire for our European friends. I asked another DLD speaker, Carl Benedikt Frey [https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/people/carl-benedikt-frey], a Swedish economic historian who teaches at Oxford, whether it’s “game over” for Europe in terms of its ability to compete with American and Chinese big tech. His answer: not yet—but close. Frey’s last book, shortlisted for the 2025 Financial Times business book of the year, is entitled How Progress Ends: Technology, Innovation and the Fate of Nations [https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691233079/how-progress-ends?srsltid=AfmBOoqAw0uI2FCMzuiRVYpaKKzlEpolvjasl0kHj7ebdiBx845QWtKL]. But it’s specifically Europe’s economic progress and the fate of European nations that most concerns Frey. Unless Europeans create a true single market for services, he warns, it really could be the end of the European dream of continent-wide progress. So no more crossroads for a continent perennially at a crossroads. And that single market, Frey explains, is ultimately a matter of political rather than economic will.

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Is It Game Over For Europe?

I'm just back from another stimulating Digital Life Design (DLD) [https://www.dld-conference.com/] conference in Munich where all the talk was about the growing technological and political gap with the United States and China. From Machiavelli and Hobbes to Napoleon and Bismarck, Europe invented the modern concept of state power. But decades of outsourcing security to NATO and the US have left the continent dangerously rusty both in the language and execution of power. According to Marta Mucznik [https://www.crisisgroup.org/who-we-are/people/marta-mucznik], a senior analyst at the Brussels-based left-leaning International Crisis Group, "projecting power is the language of today's world." And unless European politicians relearn it, Mucznik warns, that growing gap between Europe and the bipolar reality of a US-China centric world will only continue to dramatically widen.

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Why Europe Must Learn the Language of Power

For a country forever flirting with amnesia about its racial history, America sure struggles to forget. Take, for example, Bernie Goetz, the white subway vigilante, who shot four black teenagers on a NYC subway in December 1984. There’s not just one - but two major new books about the anything but colorblind Goetz case which we’ll be discussing over the next couple of weeks. The first is by the CNN legal analyst Elliot Williams [https://edition.cnn.com/profiles/elliot-williams] who presents it as a Rashomon style narrative in which there is no single undisputed truth. There might not be quite five truths in Williams’ Five Bullets [https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/768052/five-bullets-by-elliot-williams/], but interpreting this story all depends on your political and racial perspective. “If a black man had shot four white teens,” Williams reimagines, “this would be a totally different story.”

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The 1984 NYC Subway Vigilante: Self Defense or Racial Rage?

In his new co-authored book It’s On You [https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/476169/its-on-you-by-loewenstein-nick-chater-and-george/9780753562154], the English behavioral scientist Nick Chater [http://Nick Chater]exposes how the rich and powerful - the THEM - have convinced us that we're to blame for society's deepest problems. Can't lose weight? That's because YOU lack willpower—or so THEY would have you believe. But willpower, Chater argues, is a convenient myth. And that means the behavioral economists got it wrong too. Nudge theory doesn't work because human beings are far messier than the utilitarians assume. The answer isn't self-discipline. It's systemic change—and that requires politics, not self-help or even self-discipline. It’s transferring power back from THEM to YOU.



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The Myth of Willpower: It's not YOU. It's THEM

According to the New Yorker writer Nicholas Niarchos [https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/authors/2267850/nicolas-niarchos/], Africa is rich in both raw materials and tragic paradox. We know about the continent's wealth in the rare earth minerals that enable our global transition from fossil fuels to clean energy. But it's contemporary African paradoxes that Niarchos describes in his important new book, The Elements of Power [https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/709025/the-elements-of-power-by-nicolas-niarchos/]. There's the paradox of clean energy's dirty secret — the horrifying cost in African suffering of our insatiable thirst for the minerals that power our electric vehicles and solar panels. Then there's the paradox of the new scramble for Africa between what he calls the "amoral" Chinese and the "immoral" Americans. And finally there's Niarchos' own personal paradox (which he doesn’t disguise) of being the scion of two of the wealthiest and most powerful families in Europe while writing a book about some of the poorest and most exploited people on the planet.

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Chinese Amorality vs. American Immorality

We all have our own favorite Robert Redford movie. But what's Redford’s most prescient film about today’s America? His Seventies trilogy about American politics — The Candidate, Three Days of the Condor and All the President's Men — are all, in their own profound ways, lasting meditations on the United States. But of the three, it might be Sydney Pollack's Three Days of the Condor [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Days_of_the_Condor] (1975) which has the eeriest relevance to contemporary America. For James Grady [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Grady_(author)], whose equally classic 1974 thriller Six Days of the Condor [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Days_of_the_Condor] inspired the movie, Three Days of the Condor speaks to both the all-encompassing paranoia and isolation of our age. It's the anti-James Bond film for our anti-James Bond age. "For a movie that was made fifty years ago to unearth the emotions we felt then, and the emotions we're feeling now — that's extraordinary," James Grady says. Yes. After a half century, the Condor has landed.

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Why This Might Be Robert Redford's Most Prescient Movie

Can Swiftynomics save America? That’s the intriguing thesis at the heart of Misty Heggeness’ [https://www.mistyheggeness.com/] new book about Swift’s impact on the American economy. Entitled Swiftynomics [https://www.ucpress.edu/books/swiftynomics/hardcover], it’s as much about Taylor Swift’s fans as it is about the megastar herself. “Taylor Swift is not moving mountains in local communities,” Heggeness acknowledges. “Her fans are. They are willing to fork out thousands of dollars, travel to another city, stay in hotels, get their hair done - that’s the real economic engine.” So Swiftynomics is really about what Taylor Swift unleashes, not who she is.



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Can Swiftynomics Save America?

The Music Man was a 1957 Broadway show written by Meredith Willson, a musician from the small Iowa town of Mason City. The popular play (and later movie) featured a con man called Harold Hill who ripped off the naive people of River City, a fictional small town based on Mason City. Nearly seventy years later, Josiah Hesse [https://josiahhesse.com/], another Iowan from Mason City, sees the Music Man narrative replaying itself. As Hesse notes in his autobiographical new book, On Fire For God [https://josiahhesse.com/on-fire-for-god/], today's Harold Hills are the megachurch salesmen who descend on small American towns to rip off the local community with their religious claptrap. "They know how to prey on people's fears," Hesse argues about these evangelical preachers, "how to locate the thing that's changing, that's new, and offer something that hearkens back to another era, a pure era of American wholesomeness." As another observant American midwesterner, Mark Twain, once quipped: "History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes."

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On Fire for the God Con

Few biographers can claim to know what it feels like to be Thomas Jefferson more than the Charlottesville-based historian Andrew Burstein [https://www.amazon.com/stores/author/B001IXMATW?ccs_id=41f864d5-2c56-4963-82fb-41bd1b5868d2]. The author of many books about Jefferson, Burstein’s latest, Being Thomas Jefferson [https://www.amazon.com/Being-Thomas-Jefferson-Intimate-History/dp/1639737685/ref=books_amazonstores_desktop_mfs_aufs_ap_sc_dsk_0?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_w=WwIWS&content-id=amzn1.sym.6d92b4c0-97d6-4063-b66e-20890dfbd616&pf_rd_p=6d92b4c0-97d6-4063-b66e-20890dfbd616&pf_rd_r=141-6149203-3732011&pd_rd_wg=RTg2U&pd_rd_r=e6951528-c2b8-4d94-a06e-d03c709fc1eb], [https://www.amazon.com/Being-Thomas-Jefferson-Intimate-History/dp/1639737685/ref=books_amazonstores_desktop_mfs_aufs_ap_sc_dsk_0?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_w=WwIWS&content-id=amzn1.sym.6d92b4c0-97d6-4063-b66e-20890dfbd616&pf_rd_p=6d92b4c0-97d6-4063-b66e-20890dfbd616&pf_rd_r=141-6149203-3732011&pd_rd_wg=RTg2U&pd_rd_r=e6951528-c2b8-4d94-a06e-d03c709fc1eb] offers an “intimate history” of the great man. From Jefferson’s views on love and race to his take on mortality, Andrew Burstein gets inside America’s most controversial and misunderstood Founding Father. And what he finds at the end of his voyage inside Jefferson is an intellectual Don Juan. “Jefferson’s language is his legacy,” Burstein concludes. “He wrote with a musical cadence, poetically, at a time when most political writers did not understand what he did about seducing the reader”.

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How Jefferson Seduced America

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