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Episode 406: Mailbag for Week 19
72 Plays2 years ago
Should Albert Rusnak replace Nico Lodeiro? What about Cody Bake for Nouhou? How much off-season change should we expect?
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Transcript
Sponsorship introduction: Full Pull Wines
00:00:00
Speaker
This episode of Nos Arietes is sponsored by Full Pull Wines, a Seattle-based wine retailer and proud sponsor of Nos Arietes since 2011. Full Pull was founded in 2009, is based in Seattle, and is owned and operated by longtime sounder supporters. They offer the best boutique wines of the world to members of their mailing list, with special focus on their home, the Pacific Northwest.
00:00:21
Speaker
Hey,
Show introduction and Sounders highlights
00:00:22
Speaker
this is Christian Roldan. And Jordan Morris from the Seattle Sounders Football Club. And you're listening to... There's no study at this. Here we go. Come on! Hey, Ocean! Let's go! What a save by Fry! The Seattle Sounders have done it! MLS co-pointers! Here comes Ray D'Ace from the middle to crowd it! The vehicle! And now they truly can't stop the celebrations.
00:01:04
Speaker
Seattle Sounders, the greatest MLS team in history. This is a tiny f***ing doll.
00:01:34
Speaker
Is
Q&A Session intro with Jeremiah Shan
00:01:38
Speaker
Welcome back to another episode of NOS Adietta, sponsored by Fullpool Wands, Watson's Counter, and our Substax subscribers. This is the question and answer episode for week 19 of the MLS season. I'm Jeremiah Shan, and joining me today is Aaron Campo and our engineer, Lickit. Well, Aaron, let's just jump right in.
00:01:42
Speaker
that why you young people call twerking?
Danny Leyva's performance analysis
00:01:57
Speaker
What do we got from our Substax subscribers?
00:02:00
Speaker
Great question, Jeremiah. Our first question comes from Fred love. I know Danny Leyva has been getting some starts in Denver, but have you seen or heard any reports about how he's actually doing? Thanks all. Love what you do. Thank you, Fred. We love what you do. Yeah. So yeah, he he's, he has gotten a fair number of starts. I believe he has four starts in MLS play. He's got another one in the open cup. Uh, and he's got, you know, eight or nine appearances across all competitions.
00:02:29
Speaker
He's been, frankly, what you'd probably expect. He's looked good at times. He has not necessarily looked great all the time, but I was looking at his numbers and they are basically the same numbers he was putting up with the sounders just in more minutes, which I think is probably what
00:02:53
Speaker
The Sounders hoped what would happen here is that, and I don't know how much more attractive that makes him or less attractive that makes him on the transfer. Probably makes him more attractive, I would think, than if anything. But it also has coincided with Colorado in a really bad run of form. I don't think they have a win at home yet.
00:03:16
Speaker
That's insane. We talked about this on the main show about the underperformance overperformance relative, and Colorado has also really underperformed expectations based on expected goals, but they're still pretty stinky, I think it's fair to say. Yeah.
Should Sounders rotate for League's Cup?
00:03:33
Speaker
Yeah, this is another one from our sub-sex subscribers is from Bill Jones. What are the chances that the Sounders play a completely rotated lineup for the league's cup? I'm really hoping they do.
00:03:44
Speaker
It's tough because there are definitely players that I'd like to see get some rest and really come back for the post-league cup run in top form. But if they don't... I mean, the league's cup could potentially last for what, like six weeks or something like that? Almost, yeah. It's over a month. It's like July 15th to August 20th, I think.
00:04:10
Speaker
Yeah. And so you don't want to break that significant. I think it's fair to say you want, you want players playing, you want players playing, you know, being sharp. You probably want to, I mean, I think you should try to win the competition if you're, if you're going to be in it. And, and I think the thing that like really takes a toll is playing in concurrent competitions. I think if you're taking a break from MLS and playing in one competition at a time, you're probably not going to run anybody too ragged.
00:04:37
Speaker
But I do think there's something to be said for, you know, Nico not necessarily playing in every game, Raul not necessarily playing in every game, maybe getting Zavi, Aviary Agusom starts, etc. and so forth. So I would like to see some rotation, but I don't think I would go so far as to say I want to see a completely rotated lineup, and I don't think the sounders are ever going to do that either.
00:05:00
Speaker
Like you said, it's a tough position to try to rotate too heavily because I think the worst case scenario is probably that you go out in the group stage and you end up with too much time off. If the sounders go out after two games,
00:05:22
Speaker
and they're sitting around for three or four weeks. I don't think that's good. So I think the best case scenario is probably,
00:05:31
Speaker
you know, advancing at least into the first or second knockout round game. The worst case scenario is probably is getting eliminated from the group stage or going out like in the semi-finals because you miss out on getting the CONCACAF spot as well as playing a bunch of extra games, which kind of worst of both worlds in that situation.
00:05:53
Speaker
Yeah, for sure. I suppose the absolute worst case scenario would be losing. I think there is a third place game and losing the third place game would be absolutely brutal. That's why would you do that? Well, because there's three spots for champion for champion. Yeah, I think that's why they're playing. I would assume they're playing a third place game.
00:06:14
Speaker
Yeah, that sucks. I hate this thing so much as I even started.
Nico's performance concerns
00:06:19
Speaker
All right. Onto the Twitter questions. This first one is from at 23 squared. Nico has one goal from the spot. Otherwise, I can't think of a single shot that was even remotely on target this year. It's not his main job, but has he forgotten how to soccer? How gold dangerous does he look in practice?
00:06:33
Speaker
I do wonder if he meant to say, did he forget how to score, but I appreciate that he wrote. Yeah, I would say soccer is his main job. But I do think it's funny that he wrote that. So I actually, I looked this up, and he only has one goal this season, like he said. And over the course of the season, his shots on goal are not actually, he has, I think, seven other shots on goal other than the penalty. But in his last seven games, he doesn't have any outside of the penalty.
00:07:07
Speaker
in recent memory. I don't know if he was carrying a knock. I don't know if he was tired. I don't know what it was, but he had a couple really notable misses recently where he kind of got cut back passes near the penalty spot that he just absolutely skied. So, you know, Nico still looks decent in practice. I will say as a sort of a side note, probably the most clinical finisher in practice is Abare.
00:07:28
Speaker
and it does seem like he's become considerably less goal dangerous at least
00:07:34
Speaker
which I don't know, maybe will surprise people, but that guy seems like he finishes everything in practice. So it does seem weird that he's struggled so much in front of goal recently. It does, but finishing is one of those things, man. I'm definitely not on the finishing as in a skill train, but it's maybe less of one than people think.
00:07:58
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, yeah, I think not to get too down this this road, but too far down in this road. But I think the thing is, the theory is that once you become an elite, you know, an elite forward, the ability, the thing that separates a Raul Rui ideas from an a bear is just not.
00:08:18
Speaker
that big over a large sample size, for instance. But anyway, this one is from Josh on the sound. Hard talk time is a certain left backs inability to threaten up the line with a reliable progressive pass holding the team back on offense. Numbers have other left back options as more useful offensive partners for Chiu. He notes that five of Chiu's six assists happened while Nuhu was on the field.
00:08:48
Speaker
I mean, on the one hand, I guess it's hard to argue with that last number, but I'm still going to.
00:08:58
Speaker
It was pretty bad against Charlotte. The left side of the field was really, really isolated. There was just no attention paid to anyone but Leo Chu, and that made it fairly difficult for him. And that was sort of the playbook last year, is you just let Nuhu do whatever he wants, because he's not going to hurt you. And that was generally pretty true. But it hasn't been the case all year, even when Nuhu was playing. Earlier in the season, he was playing left back. Sounders were scoring like crazy.
00:09:27
Speaker
the Sounders were creating trouble on the left part of the left side of the field. And I think a lot of that has to do with something that you brought up in the main episode this week of a lot of what Nico does is he rotates over to the left flank so that he's playing, he's doing a lot of the ball progression that a left back would normally do because the Sounders sort of tilt the field a little bit towards, you know, towards the right. And
00:09:50
Speaker
he plays as more of a center back in possession. He's not able to do that when Nico isn't there. And so I think that's why it really stood out. And I think it stands out as well when Nico is just not playing very well, which she hasn't been for a couple months.
00:10:05
Speaker
So maybe I'm talking myself into the answer to this question being yes, but we do have a proof of concept that this team can function with him playing as a stay-at-home left back. They just need to get back to doing that so that his inability to really contribute a lot to the attack is not holding him back.
00:10:25
Speaker
Yeah. And I suppose the argument is, uh, Cody Baker at times has looked capable of, of sort of mixing the defense first attitude of a left back that sort of drops into that center back position while still being able to play that progressive ball that, uh, knew who does not play as well. I'm just not quite ready to.
00:10:51
Speaker
like new who is still an elite defender. And I think we have not seen him at his best the last couple game. I mean, this is the guy who just is still coming back from malaria. So I I'm inclined to see him a little bit more. I'm going to be really curious to see how he looks coming out of this, this current break, because I think we'll see him a little closer to his full strength.
00:11:12
Speaker
And, you know, I think he's a, he can play the pass and advance the ball a little bit better than, uh, you know, we've seen recently, uh, as well.
Sounders' set-piece struggles
00:11:22
Speaker
So, um, so this next one is from Chris Cho. How can the sounders improve on set pieces slash corners? It seems like Nico service has been poor for a while now, rarely getting past the first defender. And eventually Russ and accurate JP take over at the short corners. Also of poorly constructed.
00:11:38
Speaker
Yeah. So I, this is another one that I had looked into it at some point and Nico is not carrying as much of the burden on set pieces as he has in years past, but he's still taking like two thirds of the sounders corners. And that I.
00:11:55
Speaker
It seems almost inescapable at this point that they got to try something else. The Sounders haven't scored directly off a corner all year. I think they're accredited, I believe, with three set piece goals. One of them would be Jackson Reagan's assist this last week. They had another that was off a recycled
00:12:16
Speaker
set P or a recycled free kick, I believe early in the season. And then they had one off a throw in. So these are not like directly off corner, the kind of service that you're, you're expecting. Uh, so yeah, I mean, it's, I think that's, that is an area that they need to improve on. And if that means JP and Rusnak are taking more of the corners, I, it might be time for that.
00:12:40
Speaker
Yeah, I've definitely defended Nico's set piece service in the past, especially in some corners. But he's been a lot better in the past. Exactly. It's tough because one of the complaints here is that he rarely gets past the first defender, and that's always been one of the complaints. The difference is that in the past, the times he did get past the first defender, it was extremely dangerous. Now it's not.
00:13:03
Speaker
He's just not putting the balls into good areas. Corners are low percentage by their nature, but the highest percentage placed to put a corner if you're going to not take a short corner is where he used to put the ball most of the time. And it looks bad a lot of the time, but when it doesn't, it's usually a goal or at least a dangerous chance.
00:13:21
Speaker
is not doing that anymore. So I'm totally with you. I also agree that I just think that the sounder's set piece design is pretty... I don't love it. They just don't seem to really have any creative set piece routines.
00:13:37
Speaker
I don't know, maybe there's something I'm missing, but I just, I never feel like, I feel like if they are going to get a goal off a set piece, it's either going to be because they catch the opposition napping or because somebody just out competes somebody for a ball. I don't, I very, I just haven't felt like they were truly dangerous from set pieces in a while. And I think part of that is they just don't do a lot with them.
00:13:58
Speaker
Yeah. Yeah. And they get plenty. It seems like they get a lot of free kicks and corners that should be dangerous. If not necessarily, you're not going to score a ton of goals necessarily that way, but you can score more than the Sounders are scoring, that's for sure. And I'll add, it was only two years ago that the Sounders were tied for the league lead in set piece goals. So it's not like, and it's a lot of the same players, but they just are not,
00:14:27
Speaker
you know, they're not performing in that area. This is from GBent14. What position will the sounders look for during the summer transfer window? Surely they plan to make some signings, right? Right?
Transfer window limitations for Sounders
00:14:41
Speaker
I'd say all caps. I don't know. I mean, they probably, I think, almost certainly can't make a big signing. Yeah.
00:14:55
Speaker
They I don't think they could even make a TAM signing as I understand their cap situation. I don't think they can, at least not without moving anyone. Right. And and I just don't I don't see maybe Ariaga gets moved and that opens up some space. But the problem the Sounders have is that they're. Their best players that are underperforming, they can't really do anything about and the rest of their best players have been hurt.
00:15:24
Speaker
And they can't really do anything about that. I mean, they just, they kind of have to stick with it. And we've got a question that gets into more of this stuff coming up. So I won't go too far down this line, but I mean, their roster is what it is for a little bit. And that's just kind of the situation they're in. I mean, the Sounders made a bet on winning the Champions League and they won the Champions League.
00:15:51
Speaker
And this is kind of where they're at. And they also made a bet that these players had another year or two left in them. And that may prove true. I think there is a world where the Sounders end up winning the Western Conference and go on a playoff run. I don't think that's so crazy to think. So I don't want to make it sound like we already know this was a bad gamble.
00:16:18
Speaker
But, you know, honestly, the biggest additions the Senators are probably going to make this summer are Jordan Morris coming back, Christian Roldan coming back, Raul Rui Diaz hopefully staying healthy. And frankly, if you add those three players to this team,
00:16:39
Speaker
That's a, those are pretty significant additions, I think. Uh, and unless, but yeah, unless they, unless they move a big contract one way or the other, I don't think they're bringing in a, in a big signing. And I, the way this all feels like it's setting up for me is that, uh, this next off season is probably going to be a big one for the Sounders. Uh, and, and maybe we should just jump right into that question. Uh,
Future roster strategies and DP spots
00:17:01
Speaker
this is from, how do we pronounce his name, by the way?
00:17:05
Speaker
Sounder, Soundernavia. Oh, okay. Okay. That makes sense. Now that you point that out. So the sounders have a number of high profile contracts expiring at the end of the season. Would you rather the sounders do two full DPs with three U22 initiative
00:17:28
Speaker
players to go along with that or go with three full DPs and one U22, which is the current setup. The Sounders record on DPs significantly better than their U22 record. Although, of course, they've only made one U22 signing. But I don't know, what would you rather see them do? Would you have to see them spread it around and go with more sort of like high potential or play it safe and
00:17:54
Speaker
I think that the level of U22 players that MLS teams can sign, I think Leochu is a great example of the kind of contributions you can expect. He has really turned into hell of a player. And it took a couple years. And if you are putting all of your resources into three of those guys,
00:18:16
Speaker
Maybe you hit on all three of them and you've got a senior DP that is going to tie everything together and you get the best of both worlds. I don't think the odds of that are great. I think there is a reality in which the MLS teams are getting a caliber of prospect.
00:18:39
Speaker
that they're not getting now, that is a much more of a sure thing. That's in that age bracket where you could go to that strategy, but I don't think they're there yet. So I'm definitely more on the side of the three-fold DPs and one sort of lottery ticket U22 player. I think that there's a way to make the other way work, and I don't know who the Sounders are looking at. I don't know any of that, right? And I think if you have the right TAM guys and you're really sure about the U22 players,
00:19:08
Speaker
You can make that one work, but I think that the sounders are not, they're not a team that thrives on their risk taking, right? They make really good, safe decisions. Generally they opt for the sure thing and it's served them pretty well. And I just don't see them abandoning that path.
00:19:29
Speaker
I think your logic is sound there. I think one of the big variable in all this is my assumption is Nico, whether or not Nico is back, his DP spot is the one that is most likely to open up and that sort of like opens that. That's what allows you to make this decision next year.
00:19:48
Speaker
And they could potentially just say, look, we need Niko's replacement. We're going to spend $10 million on finding Niko's replacement. And essentially, that's the move we're going to make this offseason. Because if you do that, you already have Leo. I think Leo Chiu is already locked in at the U22 spot. You would probably have Russnak and Rui Diaz as your other two DPs.
00:20:12
Speaker
There's another world where they decide that Rusnak can be Nikko's replacement, even if it's not the forever Rus placement, but they feel like that that's a viable way to go into next season. And if that's what they see,
00:20:29
Speaker
I think that at least opens up the possibility that they could be a little bit more creative with how they use these, these other spots, because then you could, you could, you know, you can sign a, either a young DP or you can sign a sort of veteran that you can turn into a TAM next year.
00:20:46
Speaker
And, uh, or you, you, or you maybe you don't sign a veteran, you maybe you just moved Jordan Morris into, uh, that sort of like buy downable non-full DP, uh, contract spot. And then you go out and find three young guys that you really like, uh, or two young guys that you really like. Uh, and, and so I guess the difference may end up only being one extra signing, uh, for all those.
00:21:11
Speaker
all those machinations, but I mean, I think that's sort of what it hinges on is whether or not they think Albert Rusnak is a suitable number 10 next year.
00:21:23
Speaker
Right. And I mean, it's also possible that Nico comes back and the expectation is he's going to be the 10, but he's not in it. He's in a situation where he knows he's going to have to compete and maybe take a lesser role and certainly not going to be a DP. So they do have options that maybe are not blowing everything up or that are definitely not blowing everything up and going with a completely different route. But I think fundamentally, I think that they're more likely to go the safer route.
00:21:51
Speaker
And even, you know, like you said, I think it's entirely plausible that they go into next season with an open DP spot or the ability to open a DP spot. Right. I think there's a pretty good chance Jordan ends up occupying that DP spot either temporary. I believe he'll still be below the max DP threshold next year. But yeah, I guess you can go.
00:22:17
Speaker
All right. Um, so the next one is from Daniel. What kind of instance slash Sage should be burned in the locker room to get over the slump 10 games where we can't score. And now we can score, but can't defend. I mean, right. I'm hopeful that, that.
00:22:33
Speaker
That's not the case. Like I hope that the defense thing was a one game blip and the offense is here to stay. And I think we're gonna, you know, the nice thing about this LAFC game is I think it's gonna really tell us where we stand pretty clearly. Like I think it's entirely possible the Sounders come out and look borderline dominant against LAFC, especially given their workload. But if they don't,
00:22:59
Speaker
That's maybe we do need to bring out the incense and the sage and although I'm not sure where do you put that if you're playing a road game? Like I guess you I don't know exactly how all these things work.
00:23:12
Speaker
Yeah, I don't, I don't really either. I mean, incense, you can put pretty much anywhere I think, but I don't, I just, I know about like the smells of the stuff, but I don't know about any of the magic. You know, I'm not, I'm not that kind of hippie. I'm the, I'm just like the black Sabbath and weed gummies hippie. So yeah, I don't know. But they, yeah, I think you're right that if they, if they get waxed by an LAFC team that's played their 800th game and a week and it's.
00:23:41
Speaker
maybe going to be a little scary. How they deal without Christian, I think you're going to know within 15 minutes of that game starting, how nervous you should be about the rest of the year or the next month and a half at least. Yeah. And by the way, they might be mixing Alex Roldan too, just to
00:24:01
Speaker
Just to throw that little nugget in there. Uh, this is from Dan Linane. Uh, who's our leader in the back this season? Do we need an old guy to help stand us up and stay focused whenever we take the lead? Maybe I just missed the one and only Chad.
00:24:14
Speaker
Yeah, it's hard to replace Chad Marshall, but I don't know. I think this game obviously had some defensive lapses and we've seen a few this year, but I just, that hasn't, I think this defense has still looked like a elite or right below elite tier MLS defense for most of the year. And Reagan and the EMR both look
00:24:37
Speaker
I mean, Reagan is the second coming of Chad Marshall to hear some people tell it. And I don't think they're necessarily that far off off. And, uh, you know, I think gamers is a really good veteran presence, really solid defender. So I don't know. I think this last game was frustrating and had some lapses, but hasn't been an issue for me to share. Yeah. And I mean, I think they're probably thinking of the Portland game, uh, as well, but, uh,
00:25:02
Speaker
I don't see that as a trend. The Sounders have seen out leads plenty of times, or not plenty of times, but they've seen out leads in other games without too much drama. And in fact, I thought they were actually managing the Charlotte game pretty well. They had killed off the first 20 minutes after giving up or after scoring.
00:25:25
Speaker
really effectively. They weren't giving up chances. I think that was the most frustrating thing is that the goal that they scored was their first decent look.
00:25:38
Speaker
after the Sounders had scored. The Sounders were set defensively. I don't necessarily blame the quarterbacks or the quarterbacks, the center backs there. But anyway.
00:25:55
Speaker
Yeah, very frustrating. Our last one is from TIE Fighter 17. Obviously,
Messi's potential match in Seattle
00:26:01
Speaker
MLS would want to have Miami play in Seattle next year for a 60,000 plus crowd. Do you think Messi would even participate here at 35 on turf? This was an interesting debate that I actually got into with Jackson Felts of KJR because he made a similar comment. Of course,
00:26:21
Speaker
MLS is going to try and engineer a match between sounders in Miami. I'm not as convinced that MLS is that worried about trying to engineer such a matchup. Miami, and I would think if the sounders play Miami would probably be in Miami. And I don't know that the delta between what the sounders draw on TV and what any random MLS team would draw on TV against Messi is enough to sort of
00:26:51
Speaker
force this to happen. Uh, I will, I will note that the sounders played Charlotte last year and then they played them again this year. So it's not above MLS to like, there's not like a set rotation that they go through. Um, but my thinking was that, you know, the centers had gone several years between playing various Eastern conference opponents. And I wouldn't, I wouldn't be surprised if they, uh, went a few years without playing Miami. Uh,
00:27:16
Speaker
I would like to think that Messi would play here. I don't know. It would be interesting to see how much he skips turf games. It would be neat to see Messi come play here. I'm not personally that invested in that possibility.
00:27:38
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, it wouldn't be totally shot. Like Zlatan I don't think ever played here. Darion Rhee never played here, I don't believe. He wouldn't be the first big star to skip playing in Seattle.
00:27:51
Speaker
I think that is true. I think Messi is less of a dickhead than Zlatan. Yeah, probably outside of outside opinions taxes, I guess. Right. But but I do like he's I just get the feeling that he's a little bit more of a gamer than Zlatan is. But I also think.
00:28:09
Speaker
If you are getting as much money as Messi is getting, you can play on turf. And if he decides he's not going to play on turf, that's going to be really annoying to me personally. I get that players hate playing on turf. If you're getting money from Apple to be here, you can play 90 minutes on turf. I don't care what you are. But I think that you are right.
00:28:39
Speaker
I think Seattle fans love the idea of filling the stadium and having a big crowd and making a big spectacle. I do not think the league cares at all. I mean, especially when they're, I mean, I think they care, right? But I think if they're marketing messy, they care about messy. Having, you know, some extra fans in Seattle is not as big a deal. Now, I think having Atlanta and like an inter-conference, you know, potentially rivalry game type situation, having that stadium full, that's a big deal. That's interesting.
00:29:08
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, you know, yeah. And the thing is, they're going to be able to do this a few times. New England, obviously, they're going to be able to do it with Atlanta. I would imagine they're going to play some games at hard. Like they got to play some games are like.
00:29:21
Speaker
It's just hilarious to me that they might play 17 games that drive pink stadium in a, which is a temporary facility. Uh, they're supposedly going to add seats to, but it's still like going to be 23,000 seats or something like that. So it's Nashville. He's going to be in a lot of cool state of Nashville, Cincinnati. Uh, anyway, St. Louis, this is, this is part of the reason I don't like.
00:29:45
Speaker
guys like Messi coming to the league is that it is kind of embarrassing that Leo Messi is playing in this Tinker Toy ass stadium. Like it's not like it's MLS is not at that level. It's not and we don't I don't know.
00:30:00
Speaker
I'm going to, I'm going to start having an inferiority complex. I'll shut up, but it's just, yeah, I hear you. It's annoying. It's annoying. Well, uh, that's the show. Uh, thank you to our, uh, sub stack subscribers. Uh, thank you to full pull wines. Thank you to Watson's counter. Uh, hopefully next time we record, we'll, we'll have some, some big news we can share. Uh, but that's taken a little longer for us to, to share than we thought. So just put that in your, your, your, your.
00:30:29
Speaker
space that you think about. And anyway, I'm Jeremiah O'Shan signing off for Likit and Aaron Campo. This is No Study Got This and we will catch you next time.
00:31:14
Speaker
We love you. Let's win another one!