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100k BTC: What's Next?
217 Plays1 month ago
In today's episode, Matt looks at the contributing factors to Bitcoin's meteoric rise above 100k and shares his take on where we go from here. After this, he looks at the emerging winners across the wider crypto asset space and shares some thoughts on how to approach the next few weeks and months.
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Transcript
Bitcoin Hits 100K: The Milestone Moment
00:00:13
Speaker
Let's fucking go. one hundred 100K. Wow. It has felt like a long, long journey to to get to that number. But it also feels like redemption now. And this is just the beginning. Ah.
00:00:35
Speaker
Welcome to the Decrypting Crypto Podcast. I am unfortunately flying solo today. Austin is, I guess, just too busy celebrating the the BTC 100k pass, and he decided that he'd rather spend that without me. um Very sad. But fortunately, I get to spend it with with all of you now.
Cryptocurrency Chaos Recap
00:00:58
Speaker
I'm gonna spend a little bit of time in this episode just talking a little bit about what's been happening over I mean the past week two weeks every week has felt like a month or two at a time with all of the action that's happening right now and then touch on a little bit around how I'm thinking about trading the year ahead and some of the big catalysts along the way. So why don't we why don't we just kick off with Bitcoin? Bitcoin is front and center stage after a brief pullback, back down to, I think we hit around 93, 92 maybe, earlier thiss this week.
00:01:45
Speaker
which if you're wondering why that was happening a lot of that was driven by the pretty insane happenings over in South Korea where you may have seen that the president, somewhat out of nowhere in an act of desperation, declared martial law which you know, isn't ideal in a highly democratic country like South Korea.
US Political Influence on Bitcoin's Surge
00:02:16
Speaker
What happened is that their currency fluctuated heavily and their local markets went into chaos mode. Many of the South Korean exchanges were then also seeing large liquidations, especially across major assets like BTC.
00:02:35
Speaker
and the rest of the market in general which had a huge ripple effect across and you know we were wondering what the hell is happening um initially the statements coming out of South Korea where martial law was enacted due to a credible threat from insiders in the government that were apparently North Korean sympathizers we we've later found out that no this was a last kind of attempt to clutch onto power which now seems to have very much bit him on the ass and he is about to be impeached I'm pretty sure so you know normal service resumes and BTC is on an absolute tear in the early hours of the morning for me I got a beautiful notification in my Kraken app that I've been waiting to see
00:03:34
Speaker
probably since the first day that we recorded an episode of the Decrypting Crypto podcast back in 2017 that told me BTC has just passed 100K and is ripping towards 102. As I record right now, it's at around 103K. Hopefully, in the next few hours when this goes out, this that number seems small compared to where it's at.
Strategic US Bitcoin Reserve Speculation
00:03:59
Speaker
um But expect volatility, expect a plateau for a period, some consolidation. But I personally believe that we have a lot further to go here. um And I'm really excited about it. And why why am I excited? Why do I think we've got a lot further to go? And why did we choose now to rip through 100k? Well, I think the major catalyst here.
00:04:27
Speaker
What we've been waiting for since the wonderful news that Gary Gensler will be no more and he's going to be officially stepping down I mean we call that news it was a Somewhat of a foregone conclusion, but it's been highly enjoyable to read the headlines that confirm it Well, now we know who Trump is tapping for his SEC pick, and he has not disappointed ah the crypto space in the pick. He's picked Paul Atkins. Paul Atkins was a former SEC commissioner under the um Bush administration. He, I believe, was probably the first, one of the first libertarian SEC commissioners at the time.
00:05:11
Speaker
and is a huge crypto advocate, so much so he is an advisor to um at least one crypto project, has made a lot of public statements well prior to to this recent election run.
00:05:28
Speaker
that the US should become a center of innovation for crypto and that you know, we can officially really wave goodbye to choke point 2.0 so Feels like a weight has been lifted. I think this is the moment when I feel like we've truly removed or the cloud of FTX has passed by but this is a moment now where that's happening and we're able to truly move forward unhindered and all of the building blocks are in place to support this where traditionally we haven't and I think that's where even when we were talking on the podcast earlier this year we saw and of um end of of March that
00:06:23
Speaker
big rally that was almost a delayed reaction to the BTC ETF that really saw things pump up. Even at that moment in time, you know, I felt really positive about things, but we we talked about both Austin and I, that the wider macro and micro just wasn't set up to support and sustain that run.
Bitcoin as a Global Reserve Asset
00:06:47
Speaker
But now,
00:06:49
Speaker
were We're in this place and it and it feels like we could see some very positive policy decisions that have really been a thorn in the side of not just Bitcoin, but the the wider crypto space, arguably even more so for for assets, for projects outside of Bitcoin. And I think if I had to take the the mega bull scenario, or at least what would be the most bullish thing to happen over next year. It is this discussion of the strategic Bitcoin reserve. Now, looking at poly market, I think it's somewhere in the ah region of
00:07:35
Speaker
25% of um the predictions are in favour of a strategic Bitcoin reserve being set up by the Federal Reserve and the US government in the first hundred days of Trump's term. Now,
00:07:58
Speaker
I don't want to and want to bet against Polymarket any time soon. I think the last few weeks have have showed that. I think that that is quite optimistic in all honesty. I'm still a little unsure of whether this truly will happen. um I think that it will be the single largest, most important thing to happen to Bitcoin and crypto Since you know, the Bitcoin white paper if it happens why why is that so important? If right now there are, you know, no central banks around the world are ah holding Bitcoin. um And universally, the dollar is the global reserve asset. And many countries hold other alternative assets in their reserve. Oil, gold, actually in Canada, maple syrup, not a joke.
00:09:03
Speaker
And you have ah Bitcoin sitting here where if the US decides to form a strategic Bitcoin reserve, the amount that they will begin accumulating will be of monumental proportion. And the ripple effect of that is that The rest of the central banks around the world, they they literally cannot just sit by and watch that happen. They have to follow or try to front run all of that. So there really will be just this monumental shift in the way that Bitcoin is integrated
00:09:44
Speaker
into the global economy and the world and currency um in a way that I just don't think anyone is going to be prepared for and you know not to get too carried away not to get too carried away but I also am going to get carried away.
00:10:03
Speaker
We're at 100K now. We should be very happy with that. but We should celebrate that. We knew to get to 100K, there were certain things that had to happen. Infrastructure that had to be in place. Access ah that had to be set up. And I don't believe that without the Bitcoin ETF earlier this year, that we'd have been able to to truly do that there's just that. Despite, it doesn't kind of matter how bullish you can be, if major liquidity coming in from, you know in this case, large institutions, if they cannot access Bitcoin,
00:10:46
Speaker
that momentum can't, or the ah bullishness can't translate into actual buying behavior, which drives price. Now that we have that, we have bullish conditions, policy coming, you know, this is still speculative on policy, but we're starting to see a lot of the early signal that tells us policy is going to be in a good place.
00:11:13
Speaker
what what takes us to a million you know this is okay i'm almost starting to sound a little bit like the uh xrp army over here sorry guys uh xrp to a thousand bucks e etc right but um we'll come on to xrp shortly um what is it that could take it to that i think ultimately for Bitcoin to pull, you know, like a 10X. By the way, I don't I don't think we're talking about a couple of years for that to happen. That's that there's a there's a significant timeframe. But
00:11:51
Speaker
I don't think that can come without being deeply ingrained into the strategic reserves of central banks around the world.
Comparing Bitcoin's Past and Present Rallies
00:11:59
Speaker
Could it go to a million dollars with that in place and a whole load of other um fiscal, monetary, macro conditions being in the right place? Absolutely.
00:12:13
Speaker
Absolutely. um And I think just looking at an anchoring, well, I don't love to do this, but anchoring against the likes of gold, which um has, you know, a combined market cap that completely dwarfs Bitcoin.
00:12:32
Speaker
that is truly integrated into the global economy, into global reserves. And that's the that's the that's a next big swing target, I think, after this. But to bring ourselves all back, I think strategic Bitcoin reserve, no strategic Bitcoin reserve,
00:12:54
Speaker
we're in for a really prosperous few months. I think at minimum up until March, April period, I think we should be in a very, very positive trajectory with some peaks and some troughs, especially as we hit new highs, we're kind of breaking out right now. So it would not surprise me ah if we we go on an absolute tab, Bitcoin leading the charge in in this case.
00:13:20
Speaker
And then, you know, what we'll see is a little bit of sideways movement as as Bitcoin kind of consolidates, may see some slight drops, and it's going to probably rain for a little while before if we see that momentum again and we see new new highs being broken. But that's that's where the the rest of the market comes in as well.
00:13:43
Speaker
And don't forget, there's there's also a few things that are going to happen on a macro level. It's not just crypto that's pumping right now. Equities are having a ah truly wonderful time. I think most of the major analyst predictions for the S and&P 500 is to so to to hit around about 6,500, which would be pretty significant upward movement, ah somewhat in line, if not more, of the movement that we saw from the start of this year through to the end of this year, which, yeah you know, it following the S and&P, not absolute terror for this year, I think up. ah I'm going to go off the top of my head now, but I think it's around about 25%. So,
00:14:23
Speaker
A lot of positive momentum there. December 17, 18, we've also got the Fed rate cut decision. And I think based on the forward guidance that they've shared, they kind of have to cut. um Will this maybe slow down as we go into next year? I think so. We're probably going to have a new Fed chair coming into ah next year at some point.
00:14:45
Speaker
and maybe things start to change. It all really depends on how the US government is viewing um its debt burden and whether it wants to begin reducing that, which would put more of a pressure towards um reducing rates if inflation starts to become more of the discussion again. I think really just The Fed just needs to not take any drastic steps. I think this is probably the last rate cut that happens where you could make a very strong argument to say, I don't know if we necessarily need this right now. um But I think that's gonna be what happens. If we get 50 basis points, which I'm not sure I believe will will happen, then I think markets will really rally on that.
00:15:35
Speaker
um Traders betting in ah ah factoring around about a 75% chance right now of a rate cut. I personally would be extremely surprised. I've been wrong on this stuff many, many times, so I'd be extremely surprised if we don't see that.
00:15:48
Speaker
So all this shapes up for, yeah, a really great, I mean, we already have had by all measures a wonderful end to the year, but this now feels like the next leg up is happening. And it feels like for any of you listening that were ah part of the 2017 cycle.
00:16:09
Speaker
I vividly remember this moment in the year. I think um want to I'm going to go out on the way and say it's something like the December the 19th or maybe it's because I've got 19 stuck in my head. It was in and around that week where we where we pushed past 19k and it was just euphoria. It was unbelievable really in that respect.
00:16:31
Speaker
and every Everyone was you know talking about Bitcoin to 50K, 100K, but the the setup was extremely different back then. And ah this end of the year, I think we are still we've still got a lot of room for room for growth.
00:16:53
Speaker
So that's Bitcoin.
Ethereum and Altcoin Market Momentum
00:16:55
Speaker
i I always find it interesting though when I go into crypto Twitter and I look at the timeline when Bitcoin's ripping and the rest of the market isn't following. When I say the rest of the market, maybe ETH, maybe more so altcoins. It's a lot quieter than I expected.
00:17:15
Speaker
I saw a recent poll that went out from a couple of different crypto influencers asking people how much of their bitcoin was ah sorry how much of that crypto portfolio was actually in Bitcoin and the largest answer by far was under 10%. So that tells me quite a lot.
00:17:32
Speaker
And this is then when we say, okay, we've got more buyers coming into the market, liquidity is coming in. I still think there's a huge wave of liquidity to come as we we move into Q1. But we are going to see a rotation and I think ETH for me, which for any of you that listen to the podcast over the years,
00:17:54
Speaker
i I'm a huge fan of ETH, and it's overall definitely lagged um so far in in the post-election run, yet to still pass its all-time highs. but I think what we're what we're starting to see now is ETH really go on a very a much-needed run. Past seven days, we're up 10%. Technically more than than BTC. We're starting to see that breakout. I was looking at the wider ETH ecosystem, Layer 2's, Starknaz, ZK Sync, all of these guys. I mean, they're up, I think something like 100% in the the past.
00:18:35
Speaker
ah two weeks. There's been a big shift in rally that that I think people were questioning. and Are we going to see the alt rally, as as I mentioned in the last episode, firm believer that this cycle plays out very similar to the last where we see Bitcoin lead.
00:18:52
Speaker
ah followed by ETH and as Bitcoin starts to go through these moments where it ranges for a while, it's very positive for altcoins in particular. And then we have these like individual narrative spikes where maybe Bitcoin kind of starts charging and then memes go on this huge run and the ETH kind of, and altcoins kind of pull back a little bit as capital starts to rotate that way. so We're going to see just this cycle around a little bit. Just don't chop yourself up here. I think don't overthink it. That's the main thing. you You're not trying to find a contrarian view or like, I don't think you need to try and find the next thousand X. I mean, everyone would love to find the next thousand X. Just play it simple. The mages are going up. Don't overthink it.
00:19:44
Speaker
if if If you're not kind of someone that has the skills to to trade um day to day, week to week, just keep a focus on the long term. Next year is going to be a really positive time. So yeah, a lot of things are moving in the in the right direction here.
00:20:05
Speaker
and Let's talk a little bit outside of Bitcoin. ETH I've just mentioned, it's on a really nice upward move. Let me just check the price now, see if we've passed 3000. No, so as I record, we're teetering on the, sorry, past 4000. We're teetering on the edge of that, we're at 3900. So i would I would love for us to really push past that 4000 mark and drive a little bit more of a rally. um What we have seen,
00:20:36
Speaker
in the background quiet that I think hasn't been talked about as much because memes have taken so much center stage is NFTs. You know, love them or hate them. ah Probably the only thing that's a more hated rally than the XRP rally is Ether NFTs. 30 days, let's look at, and then we'll we'll shift to seven days. I'm just looking at the floor price, punks. They started early on, I think they hit like a,
00:21:04
Speaker
ah nice rally right after the ah Right after the election crypto punks up 70% over the last 30 days up 20% last seven days Everyone's favorite this this is almost certainly gonna be the most hated one is board apes board apes up 53% in the last seven days that is That's starting to really pump
00:21:31
Speaker
Excuse me. So I think, you know, that's where we start to see a lot of momentum start happening. It really would not surprise me. And I think I tweeted about this about two weeks ago.
00:21:47
Speaker
where January becomes an absolute tear for ETH NFTs. I'm even looking at like mutants and they're up to now for ETH. I remember a couple of months back they were like one point something ETH, right? So If you've got the appetite for it and you're very bullish ETH, NFTs, especially in ETH terms, trending very, very well, dollar terms, they're up slightly less, um mainly because ETH has also been been going up. But if you're looking at this in like versus dollar terms, thatre they're up way, way more. I mean, punks are up to now 45-ish.
00:22:29
Speaker
Eath floor price they were down in the 20s About three weeks ago board apes as well There's gonna be a lot of good wins. I've heard that pudgy penguins are potentially Launching a token which is gonna be very sizable. I imagine in terms of interest coming around that um Haven't seen so much in terms of Solana NFTs but today actually we've got the magic eden ah emmy token airdrop which i'm gonna go out on a whim and i'm gonna say it's probably going to be a big one uh we'll see i actually haven't checked uh whether whether i'm eligible for whatever on that front so we'll see how that plays out but no doubt
00:23:17
Speaker
that will cycle into memes, but then I think also Sol NFTs, especially now the frenzy around PumpFun has started to subside, especially considering they pulled the live stream feature, which I'm not gonna lie, I don't miss that. There was a lot of really weird shit going on on PumpFun. So ah maybe we start to see that happen.
00:23:45
Speaker
We're also seeing a lot more of the major memes getting tier one centralized exchange listings. um We've done that with Kraken for for a number of the big memes, Coinbase doing the same, Binance. And I think the interesting thing I'm seeing is the the tier one listing kind of, you know, where're we're we're kind of rolling it back to the 2017 era where the the tier one listing gets a major rally behind it. So that's been kind of interesting to to see on this front. So and NFTs, I think, you know, memes are actually in amongst all this rally pulling back a little bit.
00:24:33
Speaker
No doubt they have their time in the sun ah over the next few weeks, a couple of months anyway. Wouldn't surprise me if we kind of go through this cycle of like BTC on a tear, ETH has a rip on a load of alts along then where we can move into maybe January and NFTs are on fire while we see a little bit of chop in the run up to the election. And you after that, we probably see memes pick up again once there's a little bit more clarity and the you know the cycle continues.
00:25:04
Speaker
So that's been
Retail Investors and Altcoin Resurgence
00:25:05
Speaker
interesting. Certainly from my vantage point as well inside Kraken, we have absolutely seen the retail is coming back in. And I don't think that anything exemplifies this more.
00:25:20
Speaker
than the rally we have seen in everybody's favorite crypto, XRP. And you know, why? Why is XRP up so much? 65% in the last seven days. Let me just get into this chart just a second. Let's see, 30 days, 366% up.
00:25:45
Speaker
you know, love it or hate it, um you got to respect the XRP's army to continue their DCAs through, you know, multiple bear markets. 2021 was not a good year for XRP and nor was 2020. It really peaked up in 2017. Let me just pull the max on this chart. I mean, I remember XRP was just like the the discussion point in 2017.
00:26:13
Speaker
oh yeah so it let's see where did this peak yeah january 5th around the time when eth was peaking i i think jan 5th 2018 um just off the back of that rip in the btc rally interestingly i don't think we've Yeah, the all-time high was $3.40, still seven years ago. um Now, if you bought that all-time high, you're still you're you're down 30% still. But, you know, XRP trading at $2.38,
00:26:47
Speaker
If you look at, I mean, June, July, 2022, it was 30 cents. So if they've been DCA and they've been relatively flat since then, I mean, let's even have a look here. What have we got past three months?
00:27:04
Speaker
three months September 50 cent now and then you know the first week of December ripped up pushing towards the three dollar mark that is uh that is a magnificent trade if you're making it and i was looking in some of the xrp subreddits and you know it's euphoria and do you know what i love to see it uh regardless what i think about ripplers project etc i love to see people winning you know they're betting on crypto they dcaing through this whole time despite you know everyone telling them they're crazy and now they're getting some wins get on them um but this is nothing that uh
00:27:47
Speaker
surprises me about now retail coming in. So why am I saying this is retail? Well, you know, when retail came in in 2021, 2017, what were they buying? They were buying XRP. They were buying Cardano. They were buying Polkadot. They were buying Litecoin. They were buying Hedera.
00:28:07
Speaker
what are all of the things that have been ripping, especially last week, all of those coins, sorry, um especially this week and last week, all of those coins have been on an absolute tear because all of those same retail that left when we start to get into the bull market, seen the headlines, seen the momentum, they're coming back in, what do they buy? the same The same stuff that they were buying last time. And now and and this is why I don't think that this momentum is going to hold.
00:28:35
Speaker
But it was a pretty great trade for them to come in. I think this is one of the clearest signals you'll see of retail coming in. For retail to maintain, Bitcoin needs to keep pushing towards this. I'm pretty sure all the news headlines today are gonna be across mainstream media. Bitcoin passes a huge milestone in 100K. That's gonna bring a ton more people in. I think probably you start to see the XRPs, the Polkadots, et cetera, have another leg up off the back of this.
00:29:04
Speaker
does not surprise me at all. Am I buying and my a post in that trade? No, I don't love that trade.
Airdrops and Stablecoin Yields
00:29:09
Speaker
um that that The risk reward there is not on for me, personally. um But, you know, if I was so inclined, it's it's probably a good good trade to make.
00:29:22
Speaker
Last couple of things, um and and I'll wrap up. One is, I think very quietly, I talked about the magic Eden airdrop that's gonna happen. Who knows whether it's gonna be a big one or not. In market conditions like this, where the meta has shifted well away from airdrops and people are more inclined to hold assets,
00:29:52
Speaker
you tend to find that very quietly, these airdrops perform very, very well. And nothing has shown that more than what's happened with hype. ah So Hyperliquid, the on-chain derivatives platform,
00:30:12
Speaker
Actually, if you're interested in on-chain derivatives and you haven't used this before, go check out Hyper Liquid. Incredible platform and really, really cool UX. They're kind of, I think they're trying to be more like a centralized exchange, but as a DEX, or at least perp DEX, and it's it's really cool. And it's, their AirDrop has been,
00:30:39
Speaker
monumental. Hyperliquid have been the poster child of anti-VC bootstrapped crypto natives building for crypto natives and wow they have done very very well. A lot of big airdrop allocations and huge distribution probably the most universally loved airdrop I've seen since back when Uniswap launched and did that airdrop, should I say, in 2020. And everyone made a ton. Everyone was really happy and they loved the product. Hyperliquid, exact same. I mean, it has just been on an absolute terror. I think it debuted around about three bucks. And where are we at now? Let's have a little look. Hyperliquid.
00:31:33
Speaker
pushing pushing towards 14 bucks now so yeah you've done pretty well if you've held that airdrop for a little over a week it's pretty incredible so multiple five-figure airdrops that even for relatively small trades so pretty Pretty great. Congrats to anyone that jumped in on that. ah I think we will see a lot more of this. The points farming meta is not really there right now. um But I think all of those points that people were farming, all of the engagement they were doing, there's going to be a huge amount of tokens launching.
00:32:17
Speaker
in the end of this year, start of next year and with that comes a load of air drops so I think there's going to be a lot of value. I don't know how much there's going to be where um opportunities to get in on the airdrop. I think, you know, I was talking a lot about airdrops over the past year and kind of farming some of those. so But I think that time has kind of passed a little bit right now. um But, you know, I typically I would with airdrops, I tend to sell a lot of my allocation. It's in periods like this where I start to reconsider some of that.
00:33:00
Speaker
Now, the last thing that I'll say, and which always goes under the radar during bull market conditions, one of the easiest wins to have, if you don't want to be playing around with making bets on, you know, narratives, you've got a substantial amount in BTC, ETH, Sol, like some of the majors, and then you have a bunch of stables.
00:33:29
Speaker
stablecoin yield is Incredible right now and in the context of like crypto extremely low risk ah Borrowing markets where the demand for leverage is enormous because people are trying to lever up and double down Looking at Aave right now gold standard Aave for crypto You can get right now on USDC, for example, a 16.38% APY on just lending, which is phenomenal on an over collateralized lending market.
00:34:13
Speaker
that That's phenomenal. um That's basically you know the crypto equivalent of the risk free rate. ah Tether similar, it's like 13.5%. So if you are looking for a place to park stables, you don't even need to take risks on like exotic lending markets, on um emerging stable coins.
00:34:34
Speaker
you can go with like the top by market cap stablecoins on ETH markets on Aave and get very significant rates and with no lockups, the ability to pull out whenever you like. um I think that's one of the last things ill I'll kind of call out is like being extremely compelling.
Optimism for Bitcoin's Future
00:34:57
Speaker
if yeah If you have stables that you're not looking to kind of just get fully loaded into into crypto assets.
00:35:07
Speaker
So we'll wrap things up, talk a lot about um everything from BTC, the ETH rally, NFTs, and everything in between. I think the next few months are gonna be really positive. And wow, here's to one million BTC. Hopefully in not too long. See you next week.
00:35:51
Speaker
The information, opinions and views expressed in this podcast are for informational and entertainment purposes only. They don't constitute financial, investment or legal advice. The hosts and guests are not financial advisors and the content shouldn't be taken as professional advice. Please always do your own research before making any investment decisions.
00:36:15
Speaker
Finally, the views and opinions expressed by the hosts are their own and do not reflect the views of their respective employers.