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It’s So Over; We Are So Back
135 Plays8 days ago
🎙️ Off Chain Weekly Recap – April 10, 2025
This week, Matt and Austin unpack one of the wildest weeks in markets this year:
🔹 Trump’s Tariff Tsunami: A 10% universal tariff turned into a tit-for-tat trade war with China, peaking at 125% tariffs on Chinese imports. China hit back hard — tariffs, blacklists, and export controls on rare earth minerals.
🔹 Global Fallout: Vietnam, India, Japan, and the EU rushed to the negotiating table. Some offered full tariff eliminations to avoid a full-blown trade war.
🔹 Apple, Inflation & $30K iPhones?: Concerns about Apple and other US companies absorbing the shock, but signs suggest they’re more resilient than during Trump’s first term.
🔹 Market Madness: Stocks nosedived early in the week, only to surge midweek after a partial tariff rollback. Crypto pumped. S&P saw its biggest 1-day gain since 2008. But uncertainty looms.
🔹 Currency Games: China strategically devalues the yuan to counter tariffs. US Treasury markets spooked. Is a dangerous feedback loop forming?
🔹 Outlook:
- Short-term: More volatility, sideways action unless China escalates.
- Mid-term: Q2/Q3 could be rough — all eyes on corporate earnings & the Fed.
- Long-term: DCA and hold. Could look back at Q2 as a massive buying opportunity.
🛞 And yes — the G-Wagon is safe (for now). 🙃
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Transcript
Welcome to Decrypting Crypto Podcast
00:00:12
Speaker
Hello and welcome to the Decrypting Crypto Podcast. It's April 10th, 2025, and this is Off Chain, your weekly recap of the biggest stories in the crypto space. I'm Matthew Housebarby, and as always, I'm here with Austin Knight. We've had a couple of weeks off.
Market Volatility and Humor
00:00:27
Speaker
Austin, how are you doing?
00:00:29
Speaker
Oh, yeah. Wow. I feel like I'm on a roller coaster, Matt. What a wild ride we've we've been on the last couple of weeks. Just a couple of weeks. i was about say a couple of years, but yeah. ah it It's been volatile even for our ah standard levels of volatility.
00:00:51
Speaker
Equity markets looking like crypto markets. I mean, treasury markets are looking like crypto markets at this point. So ah it's it's been a little all over the place. And I think this This is what we're going to kind of talk about today, where we've been jolting between it's it's so over to we're so back on like an hourly basis, I think, at this point.
00:01:18
Speaker
But hey, the sun is shining in London. Oh, wow. Seven days in a row. That's why the markets are down. Oh, yeah. We're just sucking the life out of the rest of the world right now.
00:01:36
Speaker
Rain is forecast next week, though, so you can you can bet that things will resume and get back to get back to normal and balance will be restored. going to buy the dip, the London dip.
US Tariffs and Global Reactions
00:01:49
Speaker
Well, why don't we why don't we just jump straight in? So we had... All right, let's start from last week. Last week, we probably had the the first wave of really material tariffs that were coming. some Some may call it an onslaught of tariffs that were imposed by Trump.
00:02:16
Speaker
And I think we've got a few things at play. in the current macro setup right now, tariffs, which and the the ongoing kind of trade war between primarily China and the US that we'll talk about. We've got the US debt burden, treasury market, and then we've got the the relationship with the the stock market and and crypto.
00:02:42
Speaker
But we started right with this universal 10% tariff that came across all countries. And then Trump announced more formally on Monday, the first wave of the reciprocal tariffs.
00:03:03
Speaker
And that's where we kind of saw huge amounts of increases on top of the initial 10%. Um, um And it seems like what we've really got to in all of this is enemy number one is China, really, from yeah from a US perspective.
00:03:25
Speaker
And it's started with a 54% tariff on Chinese imports into the US. And almost immediately, China retaliated with tariffs on US imports.
00:03:43
Speaker
Trump then retaliated again, increased it to 104%. And China responded on Wednesday with an increase in tariffs on US m ah imports of 84%.
00:03:57
Speaker
And most importantly, because I think we saw in Trump's first term, he He placed tariffs on on China. And what did China do?
00:04:08
Speaker
They just rerouted all of their trade through neighboring countries so that they could get around all of the tariffs. When you look at that giant board of tariffs that he brought out ah at his speech on um Monday and then Wednesday,
00:04:28
Speaker
You know, the biggest hit countries outside of China itself, the likes of Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, they all have more than 40% reciprocal tariffs on it. So he's he's kind of like, he's narrowed in on China very specifically and tried to corner China to basically say, hey, you're gonna feel the pain of these tariffs and we're gonna block all your alternate options of rerouting trade into the US away.
00:05:04
Speaker
Yeah.
00:05:06
Speaker
Now that said, um Vietnam, like in particular, I think is really interesting because after they got that 46% reciprocal tariff, ah they they were like one of the first to the table pretty vocally to say, hey, you know, we we want to reach an agreement ah to either remove the tariffs or delay them. And they're ah Their top leader, To Lam, hopefully I'm pronouncing that correctly, you requested ah he he wanted a 45-day delay in the tariff imposition. And I don't know if you caught it, Matt. like He even offered to entirely eliminate tariffs on U.S. imports.
00:05:43
Speaker
But ah the U.S. officials didn't feel that this was sufficient, I think because of the trade routing that can... yeah happen through Vietnam. So that's an interesting evolving situation.
00:05:56
Speaker
But you know China didn't really stop with the with just that 84% tariff, right? They also blacklisted a bunch of us companies with their unreliable entity list. They expanded that list and that restricted operations of a bunch of companies within China.
Impact on Apple and Production Strategy
00:06:14
Speaker
And then did you see that they put export controls on like rare earth minerals? Yes, it's it's been and all out offensive, right? You know, the and I mean, what did we expect?
00:06:28
Speaker
Of course, like, you know, Xi Jinping is not going to bow to Trump. i I don't think that the Chinese economy could get to any level of pain where he would bow to Trump, where Trump comes away completely victorious and ji Jinping looks defeated. He just wouldn't.
00:06:53
Speaker
It's just not the way that that... government operates. I mean, there's, there has to be, both parties would have to win, which in Chinese negotiation culture is not typically the way that they prefer for things to go down.
00:07:10
Speaker
But yeah nevertheless, I mean, I do think that the social contract that the CCP has with its people is continued growth, employment, Uh, upward, uh, you know, ah mobility in terms of quality of life and, uh,
00:07:28
Speaker
you know i think if you're if you're if you're considering the fact that the US is definitely their biggest customer, something like 40%, 40%, 45%, depending on how you calculate it, and about twenty five percent of global trade
00:07:51
Speaker
You know, that that is well, look, that's going to cause significant pain in both directions. No, but massive pain. And talk about pain. i mean, the the poster child of u s success and growth is Apple, right? you know And they are probably set of any company, ah major kind of US company to feel the most pain here.
00:08:21
Speaker
Like the the notion that Apple could onshore their iPhone companies development, ah construction, manufacturing processes in the US is quite frankly laughable.
00:08:34
Speaker
I don't think ah anyone in the US would want to do that work, let alone at the price that they would need to do it. And I think that's like put obviously Tim Cook in a really challenging spot.
00:08:53
Speaker
When this happened last time, there was ah big discussion and Trump even came out and said, hey, like, as in in the the the last term that Trump had when they put tariffs in.
00:09:05
Speaker
And Tim Cook and Trump met after that meeting. Trump came away and said, hey, I've spoke to Tim Kirk. made a really good point that Samsung are operating through south Korea and they're just going to undercut Apple. And it it puts him a competitive disadvantage. And he rolled back a load of the stuff based on that stuff.
00:09:28
Speaker
it's not going to happen here. And it's it's like not going to be a conversation that's really happening. So Apple to one side, let's even just park the likes of... Well, the Apple one is is interesting. Like I've seen this stuff with like, oh, you know, prepare for $30,000 iPhones and stuff like that.
00:09:47
Speaker
Did you see the cues that that were were there on like the weekend at the Apple stores? People trying to... People just like scoop Apple, like iPhones, right? Yeah. Yeah, I mean, I don't really buy that. like you know Similarly, there's there's a lot of people saying like, oh, prepare for like the $2,000 Nike Air Force Ones. And it's like, I mean, New Balance are made in the United States and it's about $100 to $200 a pair. And frankly, like the quality is fantastic.
00:10:14
Speaker
um The Apple one is interesting, at least from my perspective, just because ah like I have multiple really close friends that work directly in Apple products. hardware ah design and logistics and, ah you know, regulatory compliance and everything like that. And I talked to a couple them over the weekend. They're not really like super worried, um which that's not like speaking on behalf of of the company as a whole. But I remember when the first round of tariffs came in Trump's first term, they were a lot more worried than they are now.
00:10:50
Speaker
But since then, like and in in a pretty quick, response app from like the the first round, Apple moved a lot of hardware production to Vietnam, India, and they even onshored some of it, like in the United States, ah Mac production is happening here.
00:11:12
Speaker
um India can scale up dramatically in terms of iPhone production. They've classically just built the the sort of lower end models there because they were just targeting the Indian market, which has you know more of a ah price tolerance, you know like the rest of the world around like the 50 $100 market.
00:11:30
Speaker
dollar umru so Well, I think Trump has also noticed that with India, right? And actually, India themselves had, relatively speaking, high tariffs on US imports into India. So they've actually come out and they're in the crosshairs.
00:11:47
Speaker
And Modi has less leverage than Xi. But... I don't think he's quite willing to play play ball here so much either.
00:11:58
Speaker
So I think, I agree with the general sentiment. I think that the Apple situation is more symbolic than true crisis for Apple.
00:12:11
Speaker
There's no way Trump will let Apple truly like really suffer. the It's a it's a a huge a hugely important company to the US from ah just even symbolic nature.
00:12:26
Speaker
um And I think this is where we kind of get into... you know We've also got the battle for ai infrastructure supremacy with the likes of Nier and Co. alongside all of this. But you know we had this big impact on Monday.
00:12:43
Speaker
ah Well, ah last week. Monday, stock markets had a horrendous sell-off. I mean, it was a bloodbath. um But i think this there's been a lot of talk about the the equity markets.
00:13:02
Speaker
And, you know, Tuesday, Tuesday things got actually much worse, declined again. But the the thing that
Market Reactions and Economic Implications
00:13:10
Speaker
I've been paying a lot of attention to is when we think about what is it that Besant and Trump really want here? And we talked about this in one of our last episodes, right, where it's like, ultimately, weaker dollar And lower yields on longer-dated treasuries, 10-year, 30-year, are extremely important to them because it dramatically reduces the debt burden on the US. s And this is really the the cornerstone of a lot of what they've been talking about in all of this.
00:13:43
Speaker
And when we saw and on Monday...
00:13:47
Speaker
Things looked like it was, and I think this is what scared people a lot. It looked like what Trump was doing was kind of putting these huge tariffs in and they were getting him what he wanted. There was a huge flight to treasuries. The 10-year yield dipped below 3.8%. It was a massive drop in yield.
00:14:05
Speaker
Everyone was like having a huge buy of the 10-year yield. Tuesday though, this was when things got concerning because the 10-year yield after the equity markets plunged even deeper,
00:14:19
Speaker
There was a route in the bond market. Treasury yields spiked enormous amounts. They hit 4.5%, probably a lot of forced selling, um a lot of talk around some major pod shops, hedge funds that were probably getting margin called and had to yeah get rid of sizable positions.
00:14:41
Speaker
So the equity markets... poured tons and tons ah ah ah of capital flowing out of them, huge decline.
00:14:51
Speaker
And the 10-year yields went all the way back to pre-tariff levels. So it's a lose-lose and this is not good. And I think honestly, this has been one of the things that has really pushed Trump to take a little bit of a step back in what happened on Wednesday.
00:15:11
Speaker
the The thing that I think is also interesting in this, before we get into what happened yesterday, is another part of China's response.
00:15:22
Speaker
but China began these increasing tariffs, increasing tariffs. What they've also been doing is very strategically devaluing the yuan. So this this is an important piece because...
00:15:37
Speaker
um they're They're focused on devaluing the currency to offset tariffs. And for anyone listening that is kind of and understand ah like not quite following what I mean by that, let's imagine you put a 10% tariff on Chinese imports ah into the US. It means you're going to have to pay 10% extra.
00:15:56
Speaker
Now, if you devalue the yuan, renminbi, by 10%, ten per cent then you're offsetting that tariff because all of a sudden,
00:16:09
Speaker
yeah um instead of having to pay the same amount to then convert into USD and pay a tariff on top, you've already accounted for the tariff in your currency devaluation and you're you're coming out basically at a net even amount.
00:16:28
Speaker
Now, this is not what Trump and Besson want, and they were very vocal about that. And I think there's a couple of things that can be concerning from a US perspective if that were to continue. I mean, from a global perspective, to be completely honest.
00:16:50
Speaker
China are one of the largest holders of US treasuries. And there's a lot of things that can happen when you devalue your currency. One of those is that if people get really concerned that this is going to be a continuation of a trend and you're a large holder of Yuan and you're in China,
00:17:10
Speaker
you're going to want to get rid of ah of that yuan and convert into dollars. So then you have this huge amount of capital flight. No doubt they would put controls on this over time, but that's going to plunge the currency further down.
00:17:23
Speaker
If that happens, China would most likely have to step in and support the yuan. What are they going to have to do to support the yuan? They're going to have to sell treasuries. And what will that do?
00:17:34
Speaker
That will drive long-dated treasury yields in the US up. So it's like this really negative death spiral that could happen. I mean, this that's like the the small piece of what could happen in all of this.
00:17:48
Speaker
um But I think then we get to yesterday and things all of a sudden, they're back. We're okay.
00:18:00
Speaker
but through it. We're in a bull market again, maybe? ah and It's been kind of bizarre, right? Yeah. i you know I do think that an interesting thing that happened with with yields, with them moving higher, even as stocks rallied, it does show something important, which is that it doesn't appear that the bond market is pricing in a collapse.
00:18:23
Speaker
um Perhaps it's pricing in some some degree of strength. um in US economy that's running hotter than expected, even with tariffs in place. But I think that, you know, realistically, this we're probably going to see a lot more turbulence over the course of the next few weeks.
00:18:42
Speaker
um Our national US s national debt right now is thirty six point seven trillion dollars. That's a serious problem. um What a hole. That's a few thought coin.
00:18:55
Speaker
that That's all that is. Yeah, yeah, yeah, exactly. um That problem is never going to be fixed easily.
Tariff Negotiations and Future Scenarios
00:19:02
Speaker
And i'm not I'm not here to say that this is the fix.
00:19:06
Speaker
ah But I am here to say that a you know a week or a few days of ah of a down market of which I'm sure will happen again, i think um is in the grand scheme of things, pretty minimal pain compared to the problem that we're up against.
00:19:23
Speaker
And like, what what way do you have out of that that isn't painful other than saying, oh, like we'll just continue to ignore this problem until it implodes on itself. And so this is like not a question of, is there going to be pain? It's a question of what is like the less painful route.
00:19:41
Speaker
And as you test those routes, um where do you see positive signals? I think that the the the the yield behavior was an interesting signal. I'm also interested in the fact that something like 70 countries have already come to the negotiation table.
00:19:58
Speaker
um yeah the The EU proposed a zero for zero strategy. Tariff a great agreement um aimed at industrial goods, like yeah including cars.
00:20:08
Speaker
um So they're they're not wanting to have a trade war. ah South Korea came to the negotiation table as well. um Japan. um they they got 25% tariff on cars and car parts, which of course is not something that they want.
00:20:26
Speaker
ah And so he had, a the Japan's prime minister had a phone call with ah President Trump to to negotiate.
00:20:37
Speaker
India has been a big one. I know that you mentioned that um Modi you know has been tough, but he's also signaled pretty good intent to negotiate with the He doesn't have much leverage really. Yeah.
00:20:48
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, they're they're not implementing retaliatory tariffs, and they've offered to lower or eliminate their tariffs on most imports ah from the US, of course, assuming that that we ah much ah you know either relieve or eliminate ah tariffs from our end. Israel totally came to the table and said, like, let's eliminate all of this stuff, although it seems like Trump doesn't doesn't want to negotiate to that level.
00:21:14
Speaker
Indonesia is another one. I mean, it's it was pretty wild to me to see how I know that like as we're living through this, it feels like from moment to moment when you're sitting there and watching the stock ticker or you're watching 20% of your 401k evaporate, it it feels like a long, drawn out, painful process.
00:21:34
Speaker
But when you zoom out, the this has all happened over over the course of like a week. Yeah, a little, maybe even a little less than that. And all of these countries have already come to the negotiation table.
00:21:47
Speaker
I don't think that anybody knows what Trump's actually thinking or what his plan is. I mean, there was a there is a white paper. um that like kind of you know explains exactly what the plan is.
00:22:00
Speaker
There's the question of whether or not- It sounds like a crypto 2017 ICO project. There is a white paper, but, and there is a huge but here, we have no idea what we're actually going to build and we just really want to make a ton of money.
00:22:18
Speaker
ah But think about this though. If you're, If you're going to negotiate with someone, are you going to negotiate with them if you think they're bluffing? Or are you going to wait to see, like, are they willing to self-inflict pain?
00:22:31
Speaker
Exactly. and And I think that is actually where, with Trump, where I where i disagree with many of the things that ah he's doing, um I can see logic behind what he's doing. And if there is one thing that you will say in the same way as Xi Jinping, like...
00:22:53
Speaker
He will, you know, cut off his nose to spite his own face. he he's He's stubborn. He will follow through on what he says. And I think the fact that he has not backed down to China right now.
00:23:06
Speaker
I mean, yesterday, right? all of the reciprocal tariffs except for those on China were removed. Just the 10% universal tariff has has been kept and he increased the China tariff to 125%. What we saw with this was what we saw with this was pretty remarkable.
00:23:25
Speaker
um like Stock markets rallied. The S&P recorded nearly a 10% one-day gain. That's the largest single-day gain since 2008, one of the largest in history.
00:23:37
Speaker
Most crypto jumped between 10%, 15%, 25%. BTC went from 76K up to 83K. 10-year treasury yields remained pretty flat. And actually, the the most recent treasury auction was very, very poor.
00:23:51
Speaker
However, We're seeing today slight retracement. um And I think i think what we're seeing, when I say a slight retracement, in equity markets, we're kind of down generally between 3% to 4% across the board. Let's have a quick quick scan and see if that's changed. Yeah, I'd say like most of the large cap stocks between 3% and 5%.
00:24:18
Speaker
And i i what I'm getting from this is you know people are... People got excited then we're realizing, hey, you know, he's delayed them 90 days. I have no doubt in 90 days time, going to go through this again. Like, I don't just see this stuff going away and he's going to be like, ah, forget about it. Don't worry.
00:24:36
Speaker
Right? Like we we did this we did this rodeo a few weeks back and he he'll follow through. So I think people are cautious. I don't know if you caught CPI data earlier today, um came in lower than expected, 2.4% versus we thought 2.5% and was less than February, core CPI undershot, I think 2.8% versus an expected three.
00:25:02
Speaker
You know, that's coming into play. I think that's ah another piece in all of this. You know, really, the thing that markets care about is, are tariffs going to push the US economy into recession?
00:25:16
Speaker
and are they going to i And are they going to ignite inflation? I.e., are we going to create stagflation? That's the greatest bit. If we drop into that zone, we are really in trouble.
00:25:29
Speaker
If we evade that, My take is I agree. I think you zoom out in six months time, we'll barely remember this. It'll just be like another one of those months.
00:25:40
Speaker
Can you remember when ah the Mexico Canada tariffs, remember that? How ago does that feel? It feels like forever ago. Nothing. That was a massive thing. we were chatting about it in a podcast episode like it was the craziest event.
00:25:55
Speaker
I barely remember the details now. It was probably only about two months ago, maybe less. Yeah, yeah, it's true. I mean, and and, you know, to this, this whole to go back to the point about the national debt that we've dug ourselves into this goes back decades, you know, so it's, it's okay for it to take some time for us to figure out what type of a solution there is going to be to something like this. But, you know, you also don't want to, to your point, Matt, you don't want to break the back of your economy.
00:26:22
Speaker
and send inflation soaring. um On that note, I think the next big thing that I'm watching is how corporate earnings look in the next quarter. Because if you see margins getting crushed because companies can't fully pass on the tariffs to consumers or absorb them themselves, if they're a a you know little higher margin, that could trigger um another market.
00:26:45
Speaker
wobble And then also, you know, keep an eye on how much crypto holds its gains. um That's a sentiment tell right now. I think it's interesting that ah crypto started to show signs of breaking from the equities market, which was not. does Teased us on Friday ah and then crushed our dreams.
00:27:04
Speaker
yeah I think it's going to correlate heavily to equities through this volatility because it's the same capital flows. The thing I think is positive though is this market is a cold spring. you know Everyone's just waiting for a glimmer of good news just so that they can deploy capital into US s equities and crypto again.
00:27:26
Speaker
you know It's like people are literally waiting. There's no other place people want to be than there. It's just they just need a reason. Yesterday's great example, any piece of good news. So what I do think in all of this is if we get out of this, and I don't think this first half of the year, we're going to see much happen in terms of that. The second half of the year, maybe.
00:27:45
Speaker
I think the move upwards, if it happens, is going to be aggressive, very aggressive. um I don't think it's going to be a steady grind up. Yeah.
00:27:57
Speaker
So um where does that leave us ah going forward? I think, you know, it seems like they're we're we're looking at optimism in the short term.
00:28:09
Speaker
I think so. i think you know the short term being the next four weeks, I think markets aren't going to make any crazy moves.
00:28:23
Speaker
I think we probably see a little bit of consolidation, sideways movement, nothing too insane unless something escalates with China. i think this is the biggest variable in all of this, actually, is where do we go from here? And like we talked about before, like from my perspective, I think there's there' two ways that this China-US situation is going to go.
00:28:46
Speaker
One, China devalues the one more aggressively, doesn't budge, and or increases US tariffs further. It's a bad situation for the world in this short term.
00:28:57
Speaker
that starts happening, we're in for pain again, and I think we retrace. um The good outcome, the US and China come to some kind of agreement that lets them both save their face and reduce down tariffs or more likely delay them until like this 90 day mark.
00:29:17
Speaker
And then we have time to figure this stuff out. I think if that happens, markets rally again, we go sideways for a little bit and we wait. And then we have a nervous arrival at the 90 day mark.
00:29:28
Speaker
All this in the background, eyes will then shift towards the Fed and what is the Fed going to do. um Close attention then, if all of these get delayed for 90 days, will be less on tariffs and more on the the hard data and economic growth. I agree with you, earnings.
00:29:49
Speaker
I think also what a lot of this has done, we're starting to see this come up in forward guidance from lots of companies at the moment, is everything's kind of been on pause. people People don't want to make capex investments. People don't want to do hiring right now ah because they don't know what they're planning for.
00:30:08
Speaker
And I think a lot of this is going to show up in like when people do earnings calls in Q3 for the Q2 earnings. That's when we start to see some of this show its face more concretely.
00:30:19
Speaker
um So it's going to be a I think Q2, Q3 are going to be dangerous quarters. But Yes, I agree. My hope is Q4 we get out of of that and things start getting in a much more positive trend.
00:30:34
Speaker
Yeah.
Investment Strategies and Market Volatility
00:30:35
Speaker
Matt, if you were thinking on the you know medium to long term, say five to 10 years, would you be buying equities right now? Do you think that that we're at a discount or do you think that we've got significant additional pain and volatility ahead?
00:30:50
Speaker
I think that there's definitely volatility ahead. Yeah. The potential for for pain is reasonably high because there's this 90 day kind of tariff ah delay.
00:31:05
Speaker
i think if we see everything just come back there will be a ah reaction. Realistically, you know we if if things recover, we will probably look back at Q2 of this year as being a wonderful buying opportunity.
00:31:19
Speaker
ah This is the period of time, I've chatted friends of mine, I think from crypto perspective and equities perspective. this is where you want to just have you know dollar cost averaging happening, recurring buys into assets you believe in.
00:31:34
Speaker
I'm not personally making any big moves in in this space. This is like my slow and steady accumulation the phase um that that I think we go through. And then when we really start to see fundamental momentum,
00:31:49
Speaker
around this Fed easing cycle really coming into play. That's when I think you start to say, okay, now is the time where we might jump into the momentum wave. But for now, I'd personally be playing a lot more cautious.
00:32:04
Speaker
Hedge your bets. Yeah. Well, I do have an optimistic anecdote for you. And for all of the classic crypto bros that have stuck around with us waiting to get their Lambos,
00:32:16
Speaker
ah Hey, maybe this isn't a great time for a Lambo, but how about a G-Wagon? Could I interest you in that? We we know everybody loves those. So my buddy has ah has a G-Wagon on order and it's ah about to be put on the ship from Germany. And he's been sweating the last couple weeks like, oh my God, is the cost of this thing going to go up like a quarter?
00:32:36
Speaker
Yeah. Which, hey, you know when you've got a fully spec G-Wagon, I mean, that is a serious hit yeah that you can take. Thank God for that 90 delay in tariffs, eh?
00:32:48
Speaker
Oh, man. What a win.
Consumer Impacts and Corporate Responses
00:32:51
Speaker
Yeah. But I guess that i guess that a couple days ago, like but before the delay was even announced, Mercedes and BMW came out and said, hey, ah where we we won't be increasing prices as a result of the tariffs. We think there are ways that we can absorb them and everything like that.
00:33:07
Speaker
I have no idea how that ah how that math works out, but for the short term, you can still buy a G-Wagon for the normal price. There you go. There's the ARB. There's the ARB opportunity right now. Yeah, buy up the G-Wagons. Buy up G-Wagon inventory.
00:33:26
Speaker
That's it. That's the play. There is only one play that's going to get you to the eventual Lambo, and it's ah it's it's buying the G-Wagons low and selling them high. think that's how they do it, right? Well, what a perfect antidote for us to wrap up on.
00:33:39
Speaker
No doubt there's going to be a ton more turmoil um as as the weeks progress. But, you know, we we'll be here for you all, at least riffing on what we think is going to happen.
00:33:52
Speaker
Most of the time, what we think is going to happen doesn't happen. But the good news right now is... All of the the most acclaimed economists in the world are in the same bucket as us. So, you know, we're in good company, Austin, I think.
Reflections and Closing Remarks
00:34:08
Speaker
All right, man. um ah I'm looking forward to more of the wild ride that we've been on over the course of the last few years. Let's see how it pans out. Yep. Well, we got no choice, Austin. We're in it.
00:34:21
Speaker
All right, man. I'll see you next week. Yep. See you then.
00:34:44
Speaker
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