Introduction to Market Trends
00:00:12
Speaker
Hello, and welcome to the Decrypting Crypto Podcast. It's August 22nd, 2024, and this is Off Chain. Your weekly recap of the biggest stories in the crypto space. I'm Matthew Howes-Barbie, and after a week without you, Austin, we're back, reunited. How's everything going? Yeah, a bit of a hiatus there. It's good to be back.
00:00:30
Speaker
ah Yeah. I mean, we're going to, we thought we would just do a little bit of a, uh, probably, well, I mean, depending on how the conversation goes somewhat of a shorter episode today, but, uh, really talking a little bit more about.
00:00:46
Speaker
somewhat state of the market, but more so we're going to have a little look at ah some of the trends in DeFi that are happening more from like a liquidity perspective and things that are happening on that side. And then some of the big movements that have been happening in terms of like money moving around in the crypto space and how that's impacting stuff, because we've kind of gone through this
00:01:09
Speaker
I guess the since and and really like this was at the start of August, straight we had this massive ah downturn in global financial markets that you know okay like we as ah everyone likes to talk about now, the yen carry trade playing a big role in it.
Stock vs Crypto Recovery
00:01:28
Speaker
and A few other the big pieces, and it seems like in particular, um the US stock markets have fully rebounded. I mean, the S and&P is on for its like eighth straight day of gains and all-time high S and&P earlier today, I believe. Crypto hasn't had quite the recovery, but certainly recovered back from kind of the the lull of
00:01:55
Speaker
ah the aey early August kind of period.
Investment Strategies in Volatile Markets
00:01:59
Speaker
But the main thing was it brought a ton of volatility, which is kind of good. and yeah You kind of need something happening. and now If you didn't panic at least. Exactly, ah exactly. Hopefully, well it's kind of like one of those situations I think where when you move into periods of high volatility. The key is to think about what your time horizons are for investment. It's like, okay, it's my duration long-term. Do I believe that
00:02:31
Speaker
Fundamentally, the long-term prospects of my investments have changed based on this, or do I believe that this is a ah period that I can like weather the storm on? And if it's the latter, you just need to avoid selling the bottom basically yeah and just holding on. And I think what most people also similarly in the periods of like sideways chop where we're kind of like in a range, just bouncing around, which has been where we've been at for the past kind of two weeks, don't chop yourself up. It's just like sit on your hands. I think most people, are especially crypto investors,
00:03:12
Speaker
The toughest thing, or the thing that most of them struggle with is just not doing anything.
Challenges of Overtrading
00:03:19
Speaker
Sometimes that's the best thing to do. And yeah, otherwise you're just going to chop yourself up and then you're going to be out of the game for when things really start to ramp up. So, exactly. Exactly. And don't overtrade. That's like,
00:03:36
Speaker
That's the that's a killer. um Most of us are not made to be a day traders. ah Most day traders are not made to be day traders. So just remember that. um But let's let's let's dive in. okay So we got ah we'll we'll kick things off with ah a bit of a deep dive into DeFi.
00:04:01
Speaker
So I was talking just just then about some of the volatility that we saw at the first week of August, at least. But generally speaking, you know markets over the past few months have been an absolute snoozefest.
00:04:19
Speaker
ah so i be like ah ah One of the things that's really useful to look at is instead of looking at you know crypto prices, um and typically you know when you're looking at how is the market performing,
00:04:37
Speaker
ah Bitcoin is the best measure of the direction of the market. You may have some pockets where that's like correlation breaks a little bit. It's like, oh, meme coins are surging while the rest of the market is just sideways, sharp or negative, but or NFTs in this like random pocket, like we saw um the end of last year, where all nothing else was really happening, but then ordinals were just like going crazy. It's like, okay, but that's That's the outlier. What we want to look at is, OK, how's BTC performing as a measure of the market? And also, it makes up a big chunk of the market. But instead of looking at BTC price, which actually isn't really a good measure, or at least not in isolation, BTC volatility is a much better view of how the markets are trending and how much trading activity there is in particular.
DeFi Trends and BTC Volatility
00:05:33
Speaker
And ah you can you can there's ah there's a number of different btc volatility indexes that you can look at but when volatility is really low not a whole lot happening usually things are just trading in a range things aren't really tanking very much things on going up a whole lot it's.
00:05:53
Speaker
usually the boring summer months where this often plays out. Which that feels familiar, right? I mean, we've been hanging out kind of in this like below 60K range for Bitcoin for a while now. ETH has been hanging out kind of in like the 25, 2600 range. Not much going on. No. and And you know, it's I think like from a volatility perspective, it's It's always, a lot of this happens across global markets. I think the thing that's made it feel slightly more
00:06:31
Speaker
draining at times from a trading perspective is that on the other side, you're just watching stock market inequities rip. Well, at least like 10 stocks rip. ah And you know it juxtaposes what's kind of going on in the in the crypto markets. But by and large, I mean, you take out the so-called Magnificent Seven out of the S and&P 500, the story's pretty much the same. It's been largely a story of AI in one way shape or form whether it's at like, you know the Microsoft kind of level of um Investing in the technology or the Nvidia End of the spectrum of you know building the picks and shovels outside of that Not a whole lot going on to be honest. So The the reason I bring this up right is like from the end of June ah Through to the end of July
00:07:29
Speaker
BTC volatility was at its lowest point since October last year. um It's been a complete snooze fest, as I said. And this, though, in August, ah since we went through like that first week of August with all the wider like macro volatility I was talking about earlier,
00:07:50
Speaker
it spiked to like one of the highest points of volatility in the past 12 to 18 months. okay So that was kind of a crazy week. And now we' kind of like you know we've seen the ah the the chaos that happened. I mean, ETH hit 2,200, which I know because I got some alerts saying, your orders have been filled. And I was like, oh, they were from a long time ago. ah and um I know there were buy orders. They certainly were buy orders, thankfully. and you know I think ah the the nice thing here is that we saw a pretty quick recovery after the first kind of like three days of that. Yen trade unwinding and the fallout from all of it. I think by and large, consensus now across the board, not just in crypto, but in equities in particular as well.
00:08:47
Speaker
and in the bond market was that that was pretty much an overreaction. I mean, we nearly saw the yield curve invert off the back of that. That's how dramatic it was. so and And since then, that's completely changed.
Spot Trading vs DeFi Resilience
00:09:01
Speaker
so what's what What does kind of all this mean? Well, when we've now gone back to like very low volatility. ETH has recovered and is now range-bound trading in that 2500, 2600 range. And BTC is in the 59k, 61k range.
00:09:19
Speaker
um And when we look at data across ah the major centralized exchanges, um and we take global spot trading, so we're not looking at futures trading because it's all leveraged up, it's not easy to to measure.
00:09:36
Speaker
um spot trading volume globally across the major centralized exchanges was down for another successive month in July. I think it's probably the fifth successive month it's been down ah since um April,
00:09:52
Speaker
ah so maybe the fourth. ah so And it was down to a little over $6 billion in trading volume. What does that mean? Well, it just means people are trading less, right? And that is often, which means there's less liquidity flowing through centralized exchanges, which also means that there is less liquidity in the market and there's less trading volume happening. Now, while the S and&P 500 has been on absolute tear since the early August pickback and pullback crypto has definitely been lagging
00:10:23
Speaker
behind it. And I think for a lot of people like, well, is this something that we should actually be worried about? ah don't Don't get me wrong, like we have the ETH ETFs, which I believe ah just passed a billion dollars in inflows, um if I'm not mistaken. um So we've also had pretty significant inflows on the ETH ETF, but not really being reflected right now. And I think that's just more a sign of the market.
00:10:52
Speaker
But here's a real bright spot. and so Despite all of these trends that I've been talking about, there has been one area that has kind of bucked the trend and has been happily growing and ah building its share in the crypto space, and that's DeFi.
00:11:08
Speaker
um DeFi has been thriving through all of this sideways chop. And I mentioned earlier about sometimes you have these breakout sectors ah that are the outliers. Well, typically in crypto, that's where DeFi benefits. I think that's where we've seen a few of these areas emerge. So looking at DEX volume in July, um it was a little over $191 billion. dollars which And and and here's here's some context. This in July, bear in mind, like one of the lowest points of BTC volatility and trading volatility in in recent times.
00:11:51
Speaker
That $191 billion dollars of DEX volume in July was pretty much on par with some of the peak months of the 2021 bull run. And bear in mind, a lot of that was happening in DeFi. right So um that in itself was really interesting to see. you know You're not far off a lot of those trading volumes. I think it beat October 2021. And it was only in November when we hit the peak, which was closer to like $250 billion.
00:12:18
Speaker
But I think October was around 170, 180 billion. So DeFi is really um really continuing to forge a path. Now, this is one of the highest points in history for DeFi by far.
DEX Trading Volume Distribution
00:12:34
Speaker
ah Uniswap is still dominating. um Did 8.3 billion in just the past seven days. I was actually looking a little bit ahead. Yeah, I mean, it's by far and away the leader.
00:12:48
Speaker
um And I was looking, I was like, okay, where's, where is all of this volume coming from? Is it, you know, concentrating and like, how skewed is this volume to a small density, um, of, of DEX is it's.
00:13:07
Speaker
It's not ask as as you think. um So it's relatively well distributed after Uniswap being taken out of the data set. But the crazy thing is, I was looking, I was like, OK, maybe Aerodrome, the number one base um decks, and I guess Radium, the number one on Solana, would be like the biggest after that, probably by far. It wasn't. So you've got Pancake Swap, which I hate that I have even used this product quite a lot in the 2021 bull run. um That is second in the list, with $3.74 billion in volume in the last seven days. Why is Pancake Swap second in the list?
00:13:57
Speaker
Well, it's all B and B chain. ah So Binance is chain, which I still, I don't know who uses this chain, but I guess lots of people do. it um And PancakeSwap is capturing a ton of that that volume. They actually, um interestingly, PancakeSwap has done more volume than Radium and Aerodrome combined.
00:14:18
Speaker
And considering when I think about the metas here of larger being like memes, a lot of that has lived in Solana and bass as well. So yeah, huge. And I mean, Orca actually is doing a ton of volume, which is, well, I guess that is actually technically the number one on Solana, but a lot of it goes through aggregators like Jupiter and otherwise. um here's Here's an amazing stat for you, Austin.
00:14:43
Speaker
In Uniswap's lifetime, the cumulative volume that they've processed is $1.67 trillion worth of volume through Uniswap. Unbelievable. That's wild, isn't it? It's incredible to think that that degree of trade volume is occurring in a space that is, like in the grand scheme of things, relatively quiet and untaught about. Yeah. i mean you know it's not
00:15:13
Speaker
Institutional capital is not going through the Uniswap at scale anyway, right? like um So that in itself I think is really impressive. And I thought interestingly as well, so I was digging in a little bit more into some of the numbers.
00:15:29
Speaker
Solana flipped the Ethereum L1, not including all of like the Ethereum L2s together, um but like the Ethereum L1 in monthly volume for the first time ever in July. um you know And so far, Ethereum has just like marginally taken back the lead in in August. But I think this is going to be an ongoing, closely fought battle between these two chains. And when you've got things like Pump.Fund that are just printing money right now in the Solana meme coin era like area, I think that's only going to continue. But I thought that was like really interesting to see that, in particular, when you compare it to the DeFi summer, and then what happened after that in 2021,
00:16:17
Speaker
um that the DEX volume today is on par and I think it sets us up to as the markets really start to build momentum that that volume immediately comes back into the centralized exchanges, which most people don't have as much of a good purview in. um Thankfully, like obviously my roller crack and i get I have the benefit of seeing a lot of that and the the liquidity that flows around. But with it so much of this in happening still on chain, there's a lot of capital there. And you see that with the amount of stablecoins that are also sitting on chain as well ready
00:16:55
Speaker
to kind of be deployed. So I think it's very positive.
Solana vs Ethereum L1 Volume
00:16:57
Speaker
It's really exciting. I think that um the ratio of like DEX volume versus centralized exchange volume is coming close to ah like over 19% now, which should is by far and away the largest it's ever been. um So I think that is is good. As someone at a centralized exchange, I believe that that is very, very good. We want to see more on-chain activity. It's very positive for the space. So I think that's a cool trend. We'll, we'll, uh, we'll see how it plays out and how that dominance starts to change as we get into more bullish conditions. but Yeah. Uh, yeah. Trading is trading is going on. That's for sure. You love to see it. Yep. You certainly do. Well, talking of, uh, topic, uh, talking of capital and, uh, some of the flows of that, why don't we dig into the next part of this where, where we can talk about some of the big movements that have been happening, uh, from some of the bigger players. Yeah. Big stuff. Let's get into it.
00:17:57
Speaker
I want to do a bit of a round up. There's some big money that's been moving around over the course of the past couple weeks, one of which involves The U.S. government moving $600 million dollars in Silk Road Bitcoin to Coinbase. You remember Silk Road, right, Matt? Your favorite marketplace where you've never heard of it. Oh, yeah. ah What a legend. It's almost like a mythic at this point. It so truly is. the The underground marketplace where apparently you could buy drugs and guns and
00:18:33
Speaker
all kinds of other illegal stuff ah that the US government seized. um Well, how it's how I got rid of my first wife, actually. i Jesus. Get a little dark on us here, Matt. Sorry, it's it's the afternoon my time. I realize it's the morning for you. ah I've warmed up into it a little bit.
US Government's Bitcoin Movement
00:18:55
Speaker
You can have that with your coffee. ah Yeah, Matt's already been to the pub, guys. Just kidding. Okay, so um well, when when the US government shut down Silk Road, they seized a bunch of money, basically. And, you know, Silk Road transactions were happening in crypto, even back in the day, like a decade ago. um And so last week, the US government moved 10,000 Bitcoin worth nearly $594 million dollars at the time of the transaction.
00:19:28
Speaker
to a wallet tied to coinbase prime now it's not clear whether they plan to sell or custody the assets obviously at any time that the us s government or any government German government, you name it, is moving large crypto assets. ah There are concerns over whether or not they are going to dump them on the market. um and Which I think we can hazard a guess at what they're doing with that with that Bitcoin for sure. I doubt they're staking it, let's say that. Yeah, yeah it's true.
00:20:02
Speaker
um Well, they they so it's it's definitely not clear totally on on whether or not they plan to sell or custody the the assets, but this follows a previous move of roughly $2 billion dollars worth of Silk Road Bitcoin in late July. So we're talking about a lot, a lot of money here. um And then last month, the US Marshals Service awarded Coinbase Prime a contract to manage and dispose of its large crap cap cryptocurrency assets. So that is why they moved it to a wallet tied to Coinbase Prime. They have this agreement with them now. So yeah worth keeping an eye on what's happening with the Silk Road Bitcoin.
00:20:44
Speaker
All right. What other money is moving
Institutional Moves in Crypto Investments
00:20:46
Speaker
around? Well, Goldman Sachs has revealed that 418 million Bitcoin ETF holdings on the $418 million dollars in Bitcoin ETF holdings in their latest quarterly filing. They disclosed these new positions in several Bitcoin ETFs via their latest 13F filing for the quarter ending on June 30th. I mean, that's a lot of money.
00:21:14
Speaker
but that like it It's a lot, and I don't think we thought we'd be saying that even, you know, 12 months ago. ah So yeah it's it's pretty interesting. I also saw, I think as of to today, that BlackRock now hold more Bitcoin than Grayscale. And when you what consider like the monumental lead that Grayscale had in and all the outflows that we saw,
00:21:44
Speaker
that you know That's pretty bullish, right? Like we're getting to the yeah the the stage now where the largest institutional holder is not the one that is bleeding it all out. ah So that that's that's really good as well. It's a positive sign. And certainly Goldman Sachs is helping them out with that because ah yeah if you look at their holdings breakdown, $238.6 million dollars of that $418 million dollars in total has been parked in BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust. In fact, Goldman Sachs revealed that they have roughly 6.9, almost 7 million actually shares in BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust. And then the rest of that money is distributed across multiple different ETFs, about $80 million dollars in the Fidelity ETF, 35 million in Grayscale Bitcoin Trust,
00:22:42
Speaker
$56 million in Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF, roughly $8 million in Bitwise, like $750, $800,000 in Wisdom Tree.
00:22:55
Speaker
and $300,000 in ARK21 shares. so It's interesting that they decided to... Because I'm guessing, obviously, that they've they've chosen to distribute this across a number of the ETF providers ah just for you know ah to to manage risk. yeah It's interesting that third on the list is grayscale. I was confused by that too. Yes, the highest fee kind of evolve them by a long, long way. So I wonder what's driving that. i'm um I'm not sure unless they have some concessions on fees, but even then it would still have to be a lot. But yeah, strange one. I don't really understand that. So Matt, to your point about the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust Eclipsing Grayscale. Well, this year alone,
00:23:49
Speaker
uh, I sure as Bitcoin ETF has attracted approximately $20.5 billion dollars in cumulative net inflows. So that would help to contribute nearly as much as your metamask now, uh, Austin, it's incredible. Um, and, and, and here's an interesting thing, you know, just for, for a little bit of lore, I guess you could say, uh, Bitcoin ETFs are now poised to collectively surpass the holdings of Satoshi Nakamoto.
00:24:18
Speaker
it's um It's interesting, isn't it? I think I saw something like the ah ETFs will account for something like 10% of the circulating Bitcoin supply and now.
00:24:37
Speaker
um On unlike one side, you're like, Okay, like you know that but that's a lot in terms of Bitcoin terms, but in terms of like you know holdings of things like the S and&P 500, the literal inverse of that, they will hold 80% of this institutional capital world.
00:24:55
Speaker
um the The other piece is like holding more than Satoshi. There is still this kind of piece, right? like There's there's ah there's a ah so a much, much, much, much smaller number of like critical events that could really happen in Bitcoin, each with varying degrees of risk. And for the longest time, right we had Mt. Gox hanging over us. And what would that mean? And thankfully, we had the Bitcoin ETFs happen before that to just absorb all of that. So that's not hanging over.
00:25:24
Speaker
But you know, probably the single biggest, most critical issue that could probably happen on Bitcoin, maybe in my opinion, is if anything in the original Satoshi wallet moved, like a single transaction came alive, it would be, I mean, it would bring into question a lot of things. And while I don't think that that's ever going to happen, we can never categorically say it won't, right? And that's the beauty of like the blockchain.
00:25:53
Speaker
So there's an element here where you're like, okay, well, now it's not like the single biggest thing. And that doesn't feel as bad anymore. At the same time, uh, it kind of goes against all of the initial principles and ethos of Bitcoin, but you know, that's the evolution of crypto and it's, it's the double-edged sword that we're all kind of having to deal with right now, but it's,
00:26:22
Speaker
From ah an objective price perspective, I think it's a positive thing. um And a risk perspective, it's a positive thing. Because bear in mind that this is also distributed across a number of ETF yeah providers and holders. That's not actually one single entity. Which, theoretically, they should. yeah i know that's why That's where I was going with that. like Theoretically, they should operate independently. but ah hey Hey, how ironic would it be if we find out that Satoshi and the people running the ETFs are actually the same group of people? larry yeah finker satoshi That would be the the most incredible like Scooby-Doo mask reveal ever.
00:27:02
Speaker
if larry fin What's the Satoshi? It'd be the ultimate rug pull. You know what? We would deserve ever and everything we get if that happened.
00:27:18
Speaker
And he have gone away with it all. ah what Yeah. what a great ah What a great moment that would be. It'd almost be worth it. One last money mover that I wanted to talk about. So ah Three Arrows Capital, they've got a bunch of liquidators and they have filed $1.3 billion dollars in claims against Terraform Labs. Wow. maybe Yeah, you may be hearing these these words, three arrows, capital, terraform, labs. That brings a bell, doesn't it? Well, you know, Matt, there's, I know that for you and I, our favorite person is SPF. Oh yeah. But we we do have a couple other folks that we love. I remember one character called Dokuan.
00:28:05
Speaker
Oh, yep. He won Best Supporting Actor in the podcast. He's a great support. We couldn't have done it without him. He's great. Yes. Yes. One of the podcast's usual suspects, who we like to call him. Definitely. What would we have talked about in 2020, early 2020, without Dokwon?
00:28:28
Speaker
Yeah. So if you recall the Lunatera collapse that later took out ah the crypto fund hedge fund. three euros capital that was all tied to Dokuan. And that's what all of this money movement here is about.
Legal Actions in Crypto
00:28:42
Speaker
ah Basically, liquidators of three euros capital ah who you know are are responsible for picking up the pieces after 3AC was taken out by the collapse from Luna and Terra. They are seeking $1.3 billion dollars from Terraform Labs, effectively the parents of all of that.
00:29:05
Speaker
tied to losses that they experienced from that $40 billion dollars Terra collapse and Luna collapse in 2022. But do like, do Terraform Labs even have any money at this point? Like, I think it's unclear, right? Um, I mean, I imagine that they, they, uh, they wouldn't totally be making a claim if they didn't think they couldn't get something. And last month, the SEC announced that Terraform Labs and Doquan have agreed to pay around $4.5 billion dollars as part of a settlement agreement for the collapse. um And court documents show that three arrows capital acquired $190 million dollars worth of Luna in January, 2022 as part of this billion dollar deal with other investment firms. um But what happened is that by late April, 2022, three arrows capital held like $462 million dollars worth of Luna.
00:29:59
Speaker
following the collapse, this decreased to $2,700 by May 14th. And we thought we have a bad trade. And then then the net value of their other digital holdings reportedly fell by $858 million dollars in the same period. So they're making like this really big claim, but if you if you think about it, they may be going after just a fraction of that. Yeah. Yeah.
00:30:23
Speaker
i mean Do they have a case here? ah you know and just you know We made a really bad trade and while we were also leveraged to high hell, ah bringing down the collapse of the the rest of the industry. so we want to ah It's really hard to know who I want to win in this one. i Could they both lose somehow? ah It's just, all I want is that damn super yacht to be repossessed. That's all I want. <unk> Too much to ask. Cause you know, there'd be, if they win that lawsuit, it'll be like three AC back up and running. Here we go. Part two.
00:31:07
Speaker
Oh, God, he would love it, wouldn't he? But yeah, it's a it's a strange one. I mean, I'm just kind of surprised that Terraform Labs even have that kind of capital for, I guess, if they made the initial settlement of, what, 4.5 billion, and theyve they've still got some in the coffers. Clearly, they yeah they weren't having fun staying poor, were they? Unfortunately, yeah. All right.
00:31:33
Speaker
Well, hunt we'll keep an eye on how that ah how that all plays out. um well We'll do another periodic like deep dive into this, especially I think at least once a month.
Future Trends and Lighthearted Moments
00:31:43
Speaker
We'll dig in. We'll keep an eye on how the trends in DeFi are going, I think where some of these other big trades come in. And certainly, we need to have a bit of a recap in maybe a couple of months on the e ETF as we start to see kind of more momentum build on that. Yeah. Yeah.
00:31:58
Speaker
By the way, Matt, um I did want to submit a correction from yeah a previous episode. We made a mistake. So a few episodes ago... but When you say we, talking um I just want to say that before I even know this, this is your fault, Austin, because you are the person.
00:32:14
Speaker
um yeah A few episodes ago, we we were talking about how Ryan Salome was sentenced to seven years in prison, but he was allowed to keep his Porsche 911 Turbo S. And I made the comment that you know but probably if he had bought a 911 GT3 Touring, the gentleman's Porsche, then he wouldn't have been involved in this entire scheme to defraud so many people, but he had the 9-11 turbo and that's that's what caused the moral shift. Well, he actually responded to your ah to your tweet where you posted that video and he said, no, you know it's actually the Taycan.
00:32:57
Speaker
So it turns out he had a Porsche Taycan. That's an EV. ah Now it all makes sense. it's it was never It was never the Turbo S, although it would be probable. ah It was the Taycan. Salami bought into the EV. and And look what happened. That's what happens, man.
00:33:14
Speaker
so smart he He was morally corrupted by by the icon, I believe. By the way, he has been a great follow on Twitter. I mean, if you if you can get over all of the you know the the the history and the sort of like- Which I feel like if you're in crypto with basically anyone we talk about, you have to do that. yeah The guy is like, it's pure constant entertainment. so ah Well, that's great. And I'm glad that we got to the root cause of his demise. You should have been his lawyer. I think you could have made a great case for him. I think you could have got that sentence down a few years at least. um Sorry, Ryan. All right. Well, we'll leave it at that positive note. And it's been a pleasure as always. Austin, I'll see you next week. See you then, Matt.
00:34:25
Speaker
The contents of the Decrypting Crypto podcast should not be used and are not intended as investment advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment, cryptocurrency or otherwise.