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Mailbag: Who’s had a better offseason than Sounders?
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Jeremiah and Aaron are back with another mailbag episode. Among the questions they tackle is how the Sounders should prioritize various trophies; assessments of their offseason; and the impact of when the Sounders sell Obed Vargas.
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Nos Audietis is the flagship podcast for Sounder at Heart, which became a reader-supported website on Aug. 21. You can support us by becoming a paid subscriber, learn more: https://www.sounderatheart.com/about/
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“Diversions” audio provided by Sounder at Heart subscriber Lars; find more of their music: https://despatchesfromseattle.com/
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Transcript
Introduction & Sponsor Highlight
00:00:02
Speaker
This episode of Nos Arietes is sponsored by Fullpool Wines, a Seattle-based wine retailer and proud sponsor of Nos Arietes since 2011. Fullpool was founded in 2009, is based in Seattle, and is owned and operated by longtime Sounders supporters. They offer the best boutique wines of the world to members of their mailing list, with special focus on their home, Pacific Northwest.
00:00:25
Speaker
Hi, I'm Will Bruin, and I was just recognized as a Seattle Sounders legend. now i get to do voice reads for the sounder at heart podcast network but
00:00:40
Speaker
about seven <unk> it
00:01:21
Speaker
we all got of sudden go
00:01:30
Speaker
We're seeing some of the hardwood commentary that we didn't take lo seriously.
Meet the Hosts: Jeremiah, Aaron, and Lickit
00:01:41
Speaker
Welcome back to another episode of NOS Audiotis, sponsored by Fullpool Wines. I am Jeremiah O'Shan. Joining me, as always, is Aaron Campo and our engineer, Lickit. This is the Mailbag episode for January 2025. Kind of the preseason, I guess, edition of this ah training camp just opened this week, Aaron. Does it feel like we had much of a break? I guess you did. You didn't have to record at all for the last month.
00:02:10
Speaker
Yeah, it's been nice. I've played a lot of video games on ah Tuesday nights and in in addition to every other night, so it's been good. Yeah. Yeah, well, ah good to have you back, Aaron. Good to to be back. you know Good time for us to to get back into things. it's Every year, I guess I am a little thrown off by how short the off season is, but this one felt really short in part because Maybe ah we at the most, there was a week where we didn't I didn't have something I needed to like write about. like The best example of this was on New Year's Eve, I literally reached out to sources the day before New Year's Eve and said, hey, should I be ready to write something before the new year?
Challenges of MLS Offseason & Work Commitments
00:02:58
Speaker
And people were like, ah it doesn't look like anything's going to get done. And then all of a sudden, New Year's Eve, the Jesus Freire deal gets basically completed. And there I am doing a whole day of work. but Yeah.
00:03:10
Speaker
This is the the world in the in this in the content minds of Sounder at Heart. That's right. Yeah. 24-hour news cycle, you know? Exactly, exactly.
Consideration of Video Content on YouTube
00:03:22
Speaker
Well, we're we're also doing this this ah episode on video. I don't know if we're actually going to release it or not, but if we do, you can go on YouTube and check. There is a Sounder at Heart YouTube page. There's actually a lot of stuff on there, not not anything that's particularly new or... Well, no, that's not true. There's some newer stuff. but We're going to try to do video. And if we are doing it, I apologize if I'm if I'm being fidgety or I like I just took off my hat. I'm now self-conscious about doing all these things. I have to like focus. This is going to be tough for me. And then ah who knows? Maybe I'll botch it so badly. We don't even release the the video, but we're going to give it a go. We're going to give this a go.
00:04:04
Speaker
We'll get there. We'll get there eventually. we We'll get there. Exactly. We'll get there eventually. Well, Aaron, ah you want to just start off, ah start firing away with these questions? Yeah, let's do it. We got ah we got a bunch of them. So as always, apologies for for having to cut some.
00:04:18
Speaker
um I've got to go to bed. Uh, and I still have work to do before the night's out. So, um, yeah, I, did I only slept like two hours last night. So I'm like running on fumes. oh You can't be doing that. It wasn't on purpose. Don't worry. No, I know. It never is. It never is.
00:04:35
Speaker
Not at this age at least.
Sounders' 2025 Competition Chances: Champions League & MLS Cup
00:04:36
Speaker
So the first one is from Andrew is CCL slash C somehow the best shot at a trophy in 2025. Club World Cup is Club World Cup. Leaks Cup and Open Cup. I expect they will either not be in these two or they will rotate so heavily they may as well not be in shield. They've never been serious contenders for the shield under Schmetzer in a year where they are potentially in four additional competitions. Doesn't seem like the one where that will change. MLS Cup. I expect the team will be exhausted and probably playing mostly on the road.
00:05:06
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, i I can't say that your logic is wrong. I actually gave this a lot of thought and I have to admit, I think Champions League is. Maybe not their best shot, because if they if they were to go out early in Champions League, that sort of changes the equations for these other things, like if they don't go on deep Champions League run.
00:05:31
Speaker
I don't, you know, I don't know that the league's cup and open cup issues are as acute. And then if they're not, if they don't go on long runs in that, that, you know, I think that they could still have a good MLS cup run, but I, I do feel like champions league is a worthwhile goal. It's, it is a tough path, but for sure, you know, they open with Antigua.
00:05:58
Speaker
down in Guatemala, that's always going to be a challenge. And then ah most likely, Cruz Azul will be well waiting in the second round. And that's right there. That's a pretty good test for them. And I think there's at least and one more, if not two more, Ligameki's teams that would be awaiting them if they advance beyond Cruz Azul. So it it would be a challenge. But yeah, I mean, I think it's, there's no reason they can't, they shouldn't go for it. I think they have a team that is built for a Champions League run.
Sounders' Roster Strategy & Player Fatigue
00:06:28
Speaker
Yeah, i am I think that they have as good a shot in CCL as they have in any year. um maybe Maybe not quite as good as as the year they want it, but I think they still they have a very deep team. I think that this team has the potential to be better than the team that won it, frankly. um But i'm I'm not as ah bearish on, I guess, the the MLS Cup chances. I don't expect this team to be a serious shield contender just because I expect somebody to just run away with it as usually tends to be the case probably Miami again. Yeah. Um, but I, I don't think that they're going to mostly be playing on the road necessarily. I think that they have ah a pretty good shot at a top three finish in the West. You are more bearish. I think is what you were saying. You're, you know, you know, you're right. No, you're you're right. You use it. you did I'm sorry. Yeah. paul So I, you're, you're, you got two hours of sleep last night. It's just fine. It's a,
00:07:23
Speaker
It's, it's a common, a common symptom of sleep deprivation is confusing bars and bulls mixed up. Yeah. But, uh, yeah, I i think, uh, I think this team is always a serious threat to when the MLS cup, when they get to the playoffs, I just think that they are extremely good at knockout soccer. Um, and I think they're the odds are they're going to be a better team next year than they were this year.
00:07:46
Speaker
They've, they've filled, I think their biggest hole as a team. And, you know, I, I take the point that they've, they're going to have a lot of miles on the legs at the end of the year. But I think by the time the playoffs roll around, a lot of that fixture congestion is, is kind of in the rear view mirror and has been for a little bit. So.
00:08:04
Speaker
um I think that they've got a ah better shot at winning MLS Cup than they do CONC CAF.
Fan Survey: Expectations for Sounders' 2025 Season
00:08:12
Speaker
I'm not going to say I expect them to win MLS Cup, but I think they have as good a chance as anybody in the league.
00:08:17
Speaker
Yeah, i don't i don't I won't disagree with you there. I will note, ah we did a survey on Sounder at Heart, and this feels like a good time to sort of bring that into use that for content here. and you know We got about almost exactly 500 responses to this thing, so a decent sample size. you know We posted it on Blue Sky, we posted it on Twitter, we posted it to Discord. We did not do a story on it, which I suppose would have increased the numbers and gotten us a different kind of sample. but My point being, we got a a decent variety of types of people responding to this. and Overwhelmingly, the and we yeah one of the questions we asked, how many trophies will the Sounders win? 53% said one trophy, ah which feels realistic.
00:09:07
Speaker
What I found was interesting, about 68% thought the Sounders would win at least one trophy. Only 32% said they wouldn't win any, which I don't think is actually that inherently pessimistic to say you're not going to win a trophy. That's not a... You know, although I think it speaks to the mindset of the fans, which I think it's more positive going into this year than it might seem. ah Coming from the. The general, you know, if you're just on social media and you're sort of you're reading Reddit or whatever, but. ah All right, I don't know how do you think you say this person's name, Erin?
00:09:44
Speaker
Oh, maybe. Oh, oh, oh, that's the best. That's I don't think that's
Sounders' Roster Additions & Strategic Movements
00:09:48
Speaker
right. But that's the best. That could be. I mean, that's a good guess. But anyway, ah you know who you are. Discord user you egh is yeah Spelling we love for you to let us know how to pronounce that in the future But what quote-unquote smaller signings are on your wish list still now I will know that this was this question was submitted before the new year and ah But obviously everyone wants a big-name DP but added depth or smaller upgrades could really boost this on a team with 50 plus games this year. So where would you like to see this team prior toys? Uh, the roster at this point, they don't have a lot of room to do anything, but yeah would you like to see them do
00:10:29
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, the the things that I was hoping for the and that I think are in the spirit of the question going into the offseason were hoping to see one new starting fullback next year. That seems unlikely. I mean, I think they would have to move one of them. um I don't really expect Ariola to compete for a lot of time at right back, but I could see him playing right wing back in a three center back setup.
00:10:55
Speaker
yeah I do think that the Sounders are going to be playing with two center backs most of the time. um So I think you know the full backs are likely going to be who they are, um which is not the end of the world. um there's There's going to be significant changes to the team, and that's really what I was hoping for. but Uh, you know, if there's a market for one of those guys and they have the opportunity to to make a change there, I'd be certainly happy with that. Uh, but I think the, the general consensus and and even sort of backed up by what the official line from the club has been and libel has been is that it looks like we're probably going to see a U 22 in the summer and that's going to be the extent of it, I would say.
00:11:37
Speaker
Yeah. And I don't, I still, I think there's a genuine question as to what position they're even going to target right now. I, I, if I had to guess, I think they are looking at a defensive midfielder. If you sort of try to read the tea leaves, they're talking about moving Josh attention to center back. They don't have a lot of depth that defensive midfielder, although they do have standard Brunel, they have Joe Paulo, they have Danny Leyva. All those players should be capable or standard Brunel is not even technically on the roster yet. Uh, but.
00:12:07
Speaker
They've got potentially options there. All right. This question is from, I'm going to go with OEF, although I don't know if that's, i i' am I really don't know how to say this person's name. A-U-E-G-H is how they're spelling it. I'm at a loss here. but if So if you want to tell us how to say your name in the future, we'd be more than happy to take that note. I think OEF is a pretty good guess, personally.
00:12:36
Speaker
Well, this I will add the caveat that this was a question that was submitted before the new year.
Speculation on Sounders' Formations & New Signings
00:12:43
Speaker
So the the roster is a lot more technically set than it was. but We were sort of moving in this direction all along. So I think it's still the spirit of the question is is fair, but they want to know what smaller signings were on your wish list. Everyone probably wanted a big DP signing. So we're not necessarily asking. I don't think they're asking that. They specifically are not asking that. What else were you hoping to see?
00:13:07
Speaker
Yeah, I think one of the big things I was hoping to see that it seems unlikely we'll see at this point um was some significant change at one of the fullback spots. I think, you know, Ariola is probably going to get some minutes at wingback.
00:13:23
Speaker
ah either on the right or the left. But I don't personally expect him to be really challenging for for minutes at right back. um I don't think he has a ton of minutes at an actual just right back spot in ah in a back four. He's not a super great defender, I think it's probably fair to say. yeah And that's, you know, you can accept that at a wingback spot, not as much as at the right back spot. So, uh, so it looks like we've got the right back or the full backs we have. Um, but I think that the cap situation was maybe a little different than, you know, we, we fully realized, especially with the changes they've made, they've got to be right up against it. And I think it seems like a U 22 is, is the way it's going to be in probably in the summer.
00:14:08
Speaker
Yeah, I am with you. I was hoping that we would get a new fullback. I think in reality, we probably have to settle for the hopeful emergence of Reed Baker Whiting as a regular starter, or at least challenging for starters minutes. And I don't know if that'll be on the left or on the right.
00:14:28
Speaker
It's definitely an interesting situation to watch. You know, Trevion Sousa, I would imagine, is ah a player who, if they do end up going with a 3-5-2, I wouldn't be at all surprised if he gets some minutes. I will note that in training, although the starting group seems to be lining up in a 4-2-3-1, the second group seems to be lining up in a 3-5-2 with Ariola on one side and Sousa on the other.
00:14:53
Speaker
and And so it could be, I do think we'll see that formation more. I just don't know, like you said, I don't i don't know that the base starting formation is going to include different full backs. And I think that would have been fun to see. and i And if we're reading the tea leaves, I do think the U-22 will probably end up being a defensive midfielder. Probably the most significant change they're making this preseason is they seem to be really purposeful about trying to move Josh attention to center back and.
00:15:28
Speaker
I would imagine they want to backfill his, his role a little bit with a U-22. So I don't know. We'll see. That's, I think that's probably the, the areas I would have ideally, I mean, I also, I will say I, I was hoping there would be a winger and I, I have a hard time really complaining about if areola is the the type of winger they signed. This is the guy who's proven production in MLS.
00:15:54
Speaker
Not necessarily huge numbers, but in 2022, he had 10 goals and seven assists. You know, he was a ah regular starter for the US national team for, for a while. So it's hard to be too, you know, critical of, of that change as well. So I don't know. I think they, there wasn't as much change as I was expecting, but the change they made was, you know, not insignificant.
00:16:20
Speaker
Yeah, well, let's let's ah you know go a little further down that road, I guess, because the next one is from Alejandro.
Evaluation of Sounders' Offseason Moves
00:16:27
Speaker
Assuming Ariola and Ferreira are signed, which they are, this was again ah before before the the signings were official, ah what would you project the starting lineup to be and in what formation? Has this winter window been successful? And if not, what other moves would make it a successful winter window?
00:16:44
Speaker
I I still think they're going to start in a four, two, three, one. It'll be interesting to see how long that sticks, because I don't know that a four, two, three, one perfectly fits all their. Best players in their best positions, but it does allow you to get your best players mostly on the field together. I my suspicion is that you'll see Pedro de la Vega on the left and Ferreira on the right, Morris up top.
00:17:13
Speaker
I don't think Paul Arriola is in that starting group and that could become very fluid. you know I don't know how, we haven't seen Ferreira's not been at training yet. It'll be interesting to see how him and and Morris end up ah working together if Ferreira wants to, is willing to be on the right even, or I mean, he says he is, so we'll see.
00:17:35
Speaker
ah But I mean, I think this has been a reasonably successful window. I would give it like a solid B. I'm not going to sit here and say it was an A, but they got two useful MLS proven players, one of whom I think has the potential to be an MVP type. I mean, um if Jesus Freire comes in anything like the guy who played all of 2022 in the first half of 23, like the best scorer in MLS, you know, and yeah and he's never played with a group as talented as the group he'll be playing with in Seattle. I think this is sets up really well for him. So I, I'm not, I wouldn't say I'm over the moon about this window, but I'm, I'm pretty positive about it. I think to the context of the position the Sounders were in is so important because I think for
00:18:32
Speaker
the the restrictions that they had, they did probably about as well as I i could have expected. um ah you know I think four or five months ago, we expected there to be two DP spots coming open. yeah We expected I think at least one pretty significant signing.
00:18:50
Speaker
And that's not going to happen. And I think that that's frustrating for a lot of people. And I think that's totally understandable. But I think ultimately the choice was do we let Rusnak walk and go make a splashy signing and hope that they hit the ground running right away.
00:19:06
Speaker
Or do we bring back the guy who, you know, had one of the the best counting numbers, seasons of any playmaker we've ever had, um who, you know, was sort of at the offense humming pretty, pretty well down the stretch and add some talent around him with a lot a lot of upside. And I think that that's a totally defensible choice. I think it's also defensible to say,
00:19:28
Speaker
They should have gone with more upside and tried to inject a little bit more enthusiasm, you know, into the fan base. I think that's totally defensible position, but I do think that bringing Russ neck back is completely defensible on competitive grounds as well. And I think a Tam player who was a DP two weeks ago.
00:19:49
Speaker
who I think has the potential to be a, like you said, an MVP caliber player, assuming, you know, he he hasn't just been totally changed by injury. and And there's a lot of reason when you look at his underlying numbers to think that he hasn't been, and and that a lot of it has just been him playing in different positions and him being kind of unlucky.
00:20:09
Speaker
I think that that's the kind of you know low-risk, high-reward signing that makes a lot of sense to make in this situation. so ah the the other The alternative right is is going out and spending a couple of million dollars on a guy that's going to be a Max Tam player who's probably not going to be as good. so I think that they've they've done pretty well so far, for sure.
00:20:33
Speaker
you know i i i just want to dig in a little bit on the Albert Rusnak thing, because i I think, I definitely understand where you're coming from. And I am, I would even agree with you. I think there's an argument to be made that it would have been, that there was, it was worth letting Rusnak walk and gambling on being able to find a better, higher ceiling improvement.
Debate: Retaining Rusnak - Risks & Rewards
00:21:02
Speaker
yeah But I do come back to this idea that that's a huge, like it's a really big risk. And I feel like we've maybe undersold the risk that is involved in that. Let's just say you go out and spend five, even $7 million. dollars There are a lot of players that have come into this league on that kind of number.
00:21:23
Speaker
Who didn't hit the ground running who struggled in their first season or two i mean heck you can just look down the road at a vendor is a guy who came in at ten million dollars and he really wasn't very good is first season no he was an mvp candidate is second season.
00:21:40
Speaker
But those are, you know, and that's a risk you take. And I am struggling to think of an example of a player who had a season like Rusnak did, and then the team was just like, thanks.
00:21:53
Speaker
See ya. It's really hard to imagine just letting him walk. I mean, I suppose you could have played hardball with him and just said, hey, we're just not willing to bring you back as a DP. And the Sunners did offer him a non-DP contract that would have guaranteed him more years.
00:22:11
Speaker
But I do think that we've maybe in the in the discourse allowed that idea of just letting Rosnak walk become sort of this real possibility when I don't know that they're like i don't know that there's any team, no matter how ambitious ah they are, is just like looking at 30 goal contributions and being like, yeah, we know you're 30, which is you know not an age where we would expect you to drop off.
00:22:39
Speaker
but we just don't we just don't believe we really don't believe in you i'm sorry yeah it's i think the only way that it makes sense is if you have a transformative player that you know you can get. right and if yeah Short of that, I just i think it's a combination of people not actually appreciating how good Rusnak is and how hard to do a lot of the things he's really good at doing are, and how hard it is to find those players. He's not the most exciting player in the world, but he's insanely good at the things he's good at, and they are important to the way the sounders play. ah But also, just like you said, you know
00:23:21
Speaker
even players that come good take a long time to adjust sometimes. right And a lot of players never come good. And it's just people talk about how they can how they can you know go into next season with Rusnak as a DP when it's such an important season. And I think it's just as easy to say, how could you let that guy walk and go into the go into the season with an unknown because it's such an important season.
00:23:46
Speaker
um i you know I think you know um that my initial reaction when when I found out that Rusnak and Morris were going to be DPs next year was was not super positive, but you know ah just having some time to think about it and talking through it and looking at some of the numbers, I think they made the right call competitively and you know from a continuity standpoint.
00:24:09
Speaker
Yeah, I think that's kind of where I come down. I know it's not it's not the sexy answer. It's not the it's not the headline drawing answer. but yeah and we can i suppose I don't really know that interested in in digging up the whole Jordan Morris thing, but the reality is that both of them played at DP levels. They both deserve to be on DP contracts and it's and it's not really fair to sort of like can guess that too hard, given how how well they both played. But um all right. Well, let's get let's move on. ah This is from B Suites. Would you predict to be the what would you predict to be the net impact and personal response to the Sounders moving out of downtown and or MLS moving to a winter schedule? Two very different questions, but.
Sounders' Potential Move & Winter Schedule Discussion
00:24:57
Speaker
You know, kind of related, I suppose.
00:25:00
Speaker
Yeah, ah for me, if they move out of downtown, I will go to fewer games for sure. um I have sort of come to accept that they have to get a better stadium situation and that the current situation at Lumen is untenable. And I don't feel like first and goal is going to be just all of a sudden become a better partner. Yeah. Better partner.
00:25:20
Speaker
You know, I'm still holding out hope that they can find a site in the city, ideal land downtown, although that seems like a really tall order. um But yeah, I mean, if they move to Long Acres, I'm just straight up not going to go to as many games and it sucks. it's It's a bummer. But I'll understand, you know, um whereas I think a year ago, I would have been much less understanding.
00:25:40
Speaker
I personally, though, would love them to move to a winter schedule. um I know that that's unpopular for a lot of reasons for a lot of people. I think, competitively, it makes a lot of sense for MLS to be on the same schedule as as the rest of the, not the rest of the world, but most of the rest of the relevant soccer world. I think that that it would be helpful for them to to be on the same calendar. um Having the losing the restrictions with, you know, international windows would be pretty nice. I think, um, playing championship games in the summer or in the, or in the spring, I'm sorry, would be priestly. It would be, I mean, that's a kind of a dead spot in the, in the sports calendar. You know, people talk about, Oh, well, then MLS is going to try to compete with the NFL. Well, yeah, for like a month or two, they they're already doing that.
00:26:27
Speaker
right um And they're doing it at a time when the NFL is sort of at its most intense. So I don't really know. I mean, MLS Cup was the same weekend as the SEC, the same time as the SEC title game and got absolutely stomped in the ratings because because of it. so um And and i you know i like I like having summers without a lot of obligations. it's It's nice to have a summer night, summer weekend, like a Saturday night where I don't have to make time to watch the understandings.
00:26:56
Speaker
I wouldn't hate that. I would not hate that at all. But it's also, it's it's nice sorry, last thing, it it is nice to stand outside in July and watch the sounders too. So I totally get that sure as well. i will just One of the things about that is,
00:27:13
Speaker
I think the Sounders would be well positioned actually in a move to, you know, to a European style schedule because they, I think a fans are a little bit more tolerant here of probably going to cold weather games. Like I don't, I don't necessarily think that Seattle fans would be turned off by having to watch soccer in, you know, in January or whatever, whatever the season runs.
00:27:42
Speaker
But I think the as far as the stadium goes, I think the way I'm coming down on this is I don't i don't know if I'm that interested in talking about it until like we have renderings at this point. like I think the idea I'm with you, where we are right now,
00:28:02
Speaker
I don't think I would be excited about going out to long anchors. I go out there all the time as it is for training. I don't know that I would, look and i I suspect that the the atmosphere would take a hit in some ways, but I also think it's a little hard to fairly project what that experience is going to be like because right now it's so far away from being a stadium. Like there's no infrastructure there that would support a stadium. But once you start putting renderings together and you start drawing it up and
00:28:35
Speaker
you know, maybe there's a whole neighborhood built up around it or whatever. Like, and sure, that will be fake and it will be, you know, kind of downtown Disney kind of thing, but it could be, it could be kind of cool. So I don't know. I, I think I, I'm, I'm going to reserve a little bit of judgment, but I will say I'm starting from a skeptical point, uh, at the very least. Yeah, that's fair. It's also, I mean, sounders have at least through 2032 at Lumen. So some time to no, time to figure it out we've got a few years.
00:29:04
Speaker
Maybe Adrian will win the Mega Millions and he can buy buy some something in Soto. Next one is from Ken W and again, I guess the the standard caveat. This question was asked before the ah the news about Jordan Morris becoming a DP was public. so um I'm going to amend the timeline of the question. If the team has not signed an external DP, Ken's original question was by the end of next summer's transfer window. I think i think it's fair to say by the end of the winter 2020s. Yeah. So 2026, right? That's when yeah okay they'd have expiring contracts, I believe. Yeah. I mean, there's potential next season. They, it they can potentially sign a new DP if they wanted to. Right. After they won't have any expiring contracts, but they could definitely create
00:29:55
Speaker
they could create an opening if they wanted to. Yeah, I was thinking after Russ Nack and Morris' contract. Well, that would be 2027. 2027, right? Geez. Potentially, we've got two more a year. I think that is one of the things that people were having a visceral reaction to is it wasn't just that it was Pedro, Albert, and Jordan. It was that this is our DP group for two more seasons. and In talking to the sounders, I don't know that it's quite that dialed in
00:30:27
Speaker
jordan is likely a dp through through that time albert is probably a dp but i do think there are ways if they wanted to get out of Peugeot's contract, I think they're probably a little bit more, I think they think they could probably move him. If he's not performing at a DP level, or if he's really playing well, ah that's ah's another possibility. Maybe he's playing really well and he he kind of plays himself out. But I don't think they are quite as set in stone for 2026 as they might look right now.
00:31:02
Speaker
Yeah, fair enough. Um, it's a tough question, I guess, to answer, given what we know now versus when it was asked, but right I think, yeah. Um, so whatever timeframe you think makes sense, I guess. Well here, I'll say this is what I'll say. Uh, I think this is maybe answering the spirit of the question. If we go into 2026 and it's obvious that we are not getting production out of our three DP spots and the sounders make a choice to just let it ride.
Sounders' DP Contract Strategy & Financial Implications
00:31:37
Speaker
That definitely says something about ownership's willingness to spend because they could, I think they have will have the ability to open up one of those DP spots if they wanted to, if it was that important to them. And you know, so we'll see.
00:31:53
Speaker
Yeah, I, I think I'm with you. Um, and I think, I think the odds are actually pretty good that Pedro is going to be worth his, his money next year, um, or worth the spot. So hopefully it's not really a question until 2027. Uh, hopefully Albert and Jordan continue to play really well. And Pedro starts to contribute ah at a level that justifies his DP tag. And, and it's a question for two years from now. Right.
00:32:17
Speaker
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00:32:50
Speaker
most notably entry into our members only discord where the smartest funniest and most engaged commenters share their thoughts and ideas to find out more just visit center at heart.com and click the subscribe button in the top right corner thanks for listening uh this is from cascadian frontier does locking up all the dps make it less likely we sell obed seems there might be less urgency on the part of the club to get the cash if they can't turn around and turn into a big big signing I don't think it makes it any less likely at all. Um, money is money and they still have to spend it on the squad. Um, they can sock that money away into an interest-bearing savings account and you know, wait a couple of years and, uh, they've got all sorts of options there, but, um, I don't think, I think Obed is going to want to leave. I think he has the sites rightfully set on bigger and better things. And yeah.
00:33:46
Speaker
And I will say they just made some changes to the allocation money rule, like the other day, that there's no expiration now. So the sounders, if they were to sell Obed, let's just say for $10 million, dollars and they wanted to convert $3 million of that into Gamm, they wouldn't have to just turn around and and spend it. But of course, the cash that's there to go out and spend on a DP, I mean, I guess that's so the whole point, right? is they would have money to spend on a DP and that would just, yeah, like you said, it just goes in the bank. There's no reason that they can't spend it and they might have you know more signings to make between now and then.
00:34:25
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, maybe it makes it more palatable that if Pedro isn't doing well, you can sell him at a loss or... Right. Exactly. God forbid something happens and you need to buy out Albert or Jordan. Right. It just gives you so much more flexibility. ah Next one is from Funky Hef. With more competitions, meaning more and more matches per season, is MLS considering changing any roster and salary cap rules to allow more depth?
MLS's New Roster Rules Explained
00:34:47
Speaker
Well, you know, it's funny that you, there's a good transition to this question because among another thing that was in those new roster rules is now there are players who, I don't know how many people even knew this, but it used to be, at least for last year, that a desert or a homegrown player could be what was called an off roster player, meaning they were on an MLS contract. They were paid like an MLS player.
00:35:13
Speaker
But they were not eligible to play on the game day roster unless they were on a short-term loan. But conversely, they wouldn't count toward the roster total. So you could have um an almost unlimited number of off-roster homegrown players. Stuart Hawkins was an example of this last year. And he eventually did get put on the senior roster at the end of the season, but most of the season he spent as an off-roster player.
00:35:36
Speaker
And so what this rule though changes is that those off roster players can play in six league games and unlimited CONCACAP Champions Cup, Leagues Cup, Open Cup games without having to go on a short term loan.
00:35:53
Speaker
So that's a pretty big change. And it allows, you know, so all of a sudden the sounders could go, but maybe they signed Snyder-Bernal. You know, they could put Leo Bernie on that spot. They have ways of opening up roster spots now and they can extend the roster, especially if they, they only think these guys are going to play a handful of games anyway.
00:36:12
Speaker
So yeah, they, they are sort of making these changes and that is, you know, they're not, they're not adding a whole bunch of high paid players on the roster, but they are extending the roster to make it easier to play in multiple competitions. Yeah. And I think too, that some of the, the last CBA changes were anticipating some of this as well um because the players got some pretty decent concessions. And, um, so I do think that they're kind of thinking ahead a lot of the time with this stuff, uh, rather than being reactive.
00:36:43
Speaker
ah This is from good looking, assuming Obed is sold in the summer, how does the team adjust tactically? Do they just plug and play a tensio or something else? Yeah, I mean, seems like no now. Right. there there was the obvious That was the obvious answer before yeah know the up until the recently. Yeah, it definitely makes a lot more sense that JP was brought back to me now that the plan is to to convert a tensio to center back. And I think, you know, we talked about defensive midfield looking like a spot that they might target for a U 22. And, you know, you, you maybe don't, it's not ideal to have a U 22 coming in with the expectation that they're going to get a lot of minutes right away, but, uh,
00:37:25
Speaker
that That might be the case. right um But the the other thing to keep in mind is that this is the cap situation now. These are the guys on the roster now. If they get up Schitt's Creek, they can make changes. They can trade guys. They can do things to give themselves flexibility. Also, if they sell a whole bag. Especially if you have a $10 million dollars kitty sitting around waiting to be spent.
00:37:48
Speaker
Yeah, and if you convert $3 million of that to to allocation money, you've got a lot more salary capital that gives you flexibility. so um ah like i don't Obviously, they're not going to use all $3 million dollars of that to buy down capits, but they could probably add a pretty decent player if they if they wanted to with a chunk of that money. so For sure. um Yeah. The next one is from Aaron Arne. It's another Obed question.
00:38:15
Speaker
ah If, when he moves, in what league do you see him landing? Any rumors of specific clubs inquiring about him?
Transfer Destinations for Obed Vargas
00:38:23
Speaker
So most of the specific rumors we've heard have been coming out of Mexico. So Club America has been linked to him. Monterey has been linked to him. Those are two of the biggest clubs in League iMackeys. I don't think he is thinking he wants to go to Mexico. I don't think the Sounders would prefer to sell them to Mexico. I think the Sounders would much prefer.
00:38:49
Speaker
for a bigger European team to come in and and make a bid. I know his personal desire, would like his boyhood club was rooting for Atletico Madrid. I don't know if that's in the cards, but I haven't heard any specific rumors about European interests. I won't be surprised if we start hearing some though. he is He is a really, really good player. I suspect he'll end up in Europe if not now, then eventually. but ah So I guess that's where i i I'm still going to say that it's going to be somewhere in Europe, but i don't I don't know where exactly. Yeah. I think if you have dreams of playing in Europe, going to Mexico is maybe the worst thing you could do. Yeah. that's not that's not You're not any closer to Europe if you go to Mexico. That's that's for sure. Yeah. Probably further away, frankly. Right. Yeah.
00:39:43
Speaker
ah This is from debatepro. Should Brian be giving Reed Baker Whiting more opportunities to play by deploying him as an occasional right back, it seems odd with Alex's struggles not to use Reed on the right.
00:39:56
Speaker
I think that Reid is still in the phase of his development where you play him where you want him to end up. And, and I think, although, you know, maybe, maybe he's coming out of that a little bit, but I think that left backs are harder to find and are more valuable than right backs. Reid is right footed, but he's not.
00:40:14
Speaker
he's He's very good with his left foot. He can play on the left pretty effectively. ah I think the odds are he's going to end up playing on the right, you know, deeper into his career. But I don't i don't blame the Sounders for hoping that he can play, you know, more on the left. um So, yeah, I think he's going to get a lot of minutes this year, assuming he stays healthy. This is a big, big, big year for him.
00:40:39
Speaker
Um, yeah, mean I think if that the, I think he's still going to go have a pretty good career in a, in a higher league than MLS.
Reed Baker Whiting's Opportunities & Contract Status
00:40:47
Speaker
But I think the odds of him making an Obed type move have taken a pretty big hit after last year. So, um, but yeah, he he needs to play. So I wouldn't be shocked to see him play on the right, but I think there's going to be a decent amount of minutes on the left. I mean, who's not going to be a left wing back in a, in a three five two.
00:41:07
Speaker
So yeah, I think i think he's gonna get his his minutes for sure.
00:41:14
Speaker
ah Next one is from- Yeah, I won't say it. I don't think I have a lot to say there other than I think we will see Reed playing some right back as well. i you know but it's Like you said, it's ah it's a big year for him.
00:41:28
Speaker
He's also going into a con... He's going to be out of contract. So the Sounders also have a lot of motivation to want to get him signed before we get to mid-year. Yeah, absolutely. like ah Next one is from Bill Jones, TRPT. What are the chances that the Whitecaps franchise leaves Vancouver? I know the teams for sale and some Vancouver residents seem worried.
00:41:52
Speaker
It does, like I can't blame anyone for being worried. I would be pretty surprised if they move. i don't I don't think there are any other North American markets that to me on paper look more enticing. Like you could certainly argue that the Whitecaps need to get their own stadium as bad as the sounder situation is at Lumen or as frustrating as I should say as it is at Lumen.
00:42:20
Speaker
The Whitecaps have been way worse at BZ Plays. They couldn't even host a playoff game last year. they weren't if If they had made it to MLS Cup, they wouldn't have been able to host that even. So that's that's a real problem.
00:42:32
Speaker
so i suppose And I would imagine building a new stadium in Vancouver is not easy. So these are these are legitimate problems that a ah new owner will have to deal with.
00:42:44
Speaker
But you can't convince me that Las Vegas is a better market for an MLS team than Vancouver. I mean, I think Vancouver is the biggest sleeping giant in MLS in terms of its potential to be a real soccer town. And I mean, it is a real soccer town and just that to be a real whitecaps town, I should say. So I would hope that a new owner just sort of doubles down on Vancouver because it is a great soccer city, I think. Yeah. I think too, the league is going to frown at any attempts to move clubs because they don't get expansion fees, right? right if you If you buy the Whitecaps and move it to Vegas, then MLS doesn't get to give a team to Vegas and get a bunch of money for it. Exactly. A billion dollar expansion team or whatever. Yeah.
00:43:35
Speaker
I just hope that the villas owners don't get a team in Vegas. That would be super annoying. ah This one's from Dudes B. Would you say that the higher dollar and DP contracts are more staggered or grouped to end together? Having top player contracts expire in different years might allow teams more ability to change when needed. Having contracts all expire closer together might hint at a strategy of holding core together.
00:43:59
Speaker
I don't, I don't, I guess, ah are they saying, should that be the strategy or is it better
Strategic Staggering of DP Contract Expirations
00:44:04
Speaker
to stay? I mean, it's probably better to stagger them, I suppose. yeah and Or is it an intentional strategy? Maybe it's kind of how I read it. I don't think it's, in i I don't know. I'm skeptical that it's intentional. I think they sort of, I think they're signing each of these contracts effectively as they come. i don't like i don't I don't think they're giving one guy a three-year extension and another guy a two-year extension just so that they don't end up expiring the same year. I do think that it's probably not an accident that Jordan's DP escalation came up the year after that Raul's contract expired. I think that's the... Yes, that's probably true.
00:44:43
Speaker
And Ferreira, if he has a similar escalation, it's probably timed with Rosnek, you know, his deal coming up. but it's true yeah yeah I generally like, I don't think Nico and Raoul's contracts were staggered intentionally or, or not. Right. I think it was just those were the deals that got negotiated, you know.
00:45:03
Speaker
Yeah, ah this is an interesting thought exercise from Dan P. He says, has there been a DP signing this offseason from another MLS club that looks better than Jesus on a TAM, i.e., are there any other teams having off-seasons that you're really jealous of?
Sounders vs Other MLS Teams: Offseason Acquisitions
00:45:20
Speaker
Yeah, it is a good question because it's not necessarily a question about, are you you know do you think Jesus is a better player than Denke, for example?
00:45:30
Speaker
But do you think that Tezos is a better value? and i i I think so. i mean People have gotten really sick of this hypothetical, but I think it's i think it's a valid one. ah you know If Tezos was the exact same guy, but he had been playing in Belgium since he was you know a kid, and he was coming over for $8 million dollars or $10 million dollars or whatever it was,
00:45:55
Speaker
would the reaction be different? And I think it absolutely would. Even with the risk, the downside, the injury, you know, maybe dragging his numbers down last year. um So yeah, I think that there is some lack of, I don't know, excitement about his, this is upside.
00:46:13
Speaker
um But I would rather, I think I would probably rather have Dinky, but as a value prop, I mean, the Sounders weren't going to sign a DP, right? They decided they were going to bring Rusnak back. And we've talked about that and how that's a defensible um position. And I think value for money, yeah. Like I think I'd rather have Jesus on Tam than than any of the other DPs that have been signed this season so far. And I look at, you know, it's early in the off season. and I only think the technically the,
00:46:43
Speaker
transfer window might not even be open yet, and so things can change a lot, and like a lot, a lot. But where we're sitting right now, I don't know that anyone has had a even remotely as good of an off-season as the sounders. Now, that's also yeah understanding that the sounders have kind of emptied their chamber almost on, it if not quite, but they've they've made their big moves of this off-season.
00:47:08
Speaker
It's not a ah real apples to apples comparison, and but if you look at like, let's look at FC Cincinnati right now, they have Kevin Denke, great. That's that's really good. Luciana Acosta did not report to camp.
00:47:19
Speaker
ah orriano did not report to camp. Those are big, big problems for them that they're going to have to solve. ah And, you know, where we're sitting again, this is, it's January 14th. This is not, you know, we might be singing a very different tune on February 14th, but where we're sitting right now, no, I'm not jealous of anyone else's off season. ah It would be fun to sign a Kevin Denke type player. It's really fun to watch what Atlanta is, like some of the names that Atlanta is getting linked to. That's a lot of fun. Don't get me wrong.
00:47:51
Speaker
But, you know, they haven't done anything yet, or they haven't made their big moves yet. So, you know, where we are right now, you know, come back in August, maybe ask me this question in a month and then we'll we'll see. Right. And that's, that's the key thing, right? Is that Atlanta is in a position to make all these signings because they have sucked shit and they have a ton of cap space.
00:48:12
Speaker
And they have to get better fast because there's a lot of pressure on the leadership of that club to get better fast. right um Cincinnati, like you said, they're losing key guys left and right. So they have to they have to replace guys. The Sounders aren't in a position to have to do that. And it does make things less exciting, but it's, I think, ultimately kind of a good problem to have.
00:48:34
Speaker
Timberlake23 wants to know, or I guess i I messed up here. This was was your question, but who's your breakout player of 2025?
Breakout Season Predictions for Sounders Players
00:48:43
Speaker
Pedro. I think Pedro is going to hit the, hit the ground running. and I think he's going to have a really good season. Um, when I looked at what Ricky puke puke did his first couple of years in MLS, when I looked at, like you said, Evander earlier, I think it's they're really not uncommon for guys to struggle really badly in their first season, especially when there are injuries. Uh, and I, I think, you know, I'm, I'm pretty excited for what he can do this year.
00:49:10
Speaker
Just to be different, I'm gonna i'm going to say Jesus Ferrer. I think he has ah a big season potentially in him. For him to have a breakout season, it'd probably have to be at least 25,
00:49:25
Speaker
maybe even 30 goal contributions. So I think he's got that potential. So sure. definite won We'll won't we go with that. the The upside of this team, I think is, I think if they hit their 90th percentile upside or above, it'll be the best Sounders team that there ever has been. They might not have kind of talked ourselves into believing that this roster is not as talented as it really is. Yeah. Yeah.
00:49:53
Speaker
Uh, next one's from taco core. If the Jesus areola deals happened a year ago, would it have been more or less likely that Jordan or Rusnak would have hit their target numbers to earn DP status? Now Rusnak was a DP and was re resigned as a DP. There were no escalations. Um, but maybe when you the other a season that was DP caliber, I guess. is Yeah. Yeah. Fair enough. Uh, do more legit attacking pieces spread the wealth on goal contributions or what a more dynamic offense accelerate their production.
00:50:23
Speaker
You know, if this was a team that was scoring that scored 65 goals last year, you start to ask questions like, well, there's only there's only one goal. yeah There's only one ball. You know, where where is it? you know that that whole ah You know, with basketball, this becomes an issue where it's like, you can like you only put five guys on the field.
00:50:44
Speaker
I don't think, I think in a situation like this, I think it raises the, it it it expands the pool of goals to go around. I don't necessarily think that because they, you know, Jesus Ferreira had, ah what was it, I think 11 goal contributions and Ariola maybe had 12 goal contributions. I don't necessarily mean, think that means the Sounders are going to have 23 more goals. um It's not outside the realm of possibility. ah I think that they're going to, I don't think it's a spreading the wealth situation. I think there's going to be more goals. That's what I think the net impact is going to be.
00:51:28
Speaker
Agree. and And I think too, much like we talk ourselves into thinking this team is maybe less talented than they are, I think that the degree to which the attack, especially in in the second half of the season, was bad is really overstated. If the Sounders add 11 goal contributions, let's just say Ariela doesn't do anything, and Hayes just has a repeat of last season, which everybody considers to to have been really disappointing, they would have scored one goal fewer than LAFC scored last year. So um i there's definitely a lot of room for improvement, no question there. But you know I think that
00:52:09
Speaker
yeah having that other threat, that other credible goal threat, I think is going to take the pressure off of Jordan, take some pressure off of a snack and just make everyone better.
Potential Improvement of Sounders' Offense
00:52:19
Speaker
Yeah. And ah one more thing I'll add about.
00:52:22
Speaker
the conversation about their offense last year is for to the second half of the season, like you said, they played fine offensively. They averaged something like 1.75 goals a game, like not necessarily gangbusters, but that's that's a solid clip. ah And then in the playoffs, so it dried up. I get it.
00:52:44
Speaker
Rothrock was hurt, and and it it seems funny to say it now, but Rothrock was a key part of their offense. ah Jordan missed a game, Albert missed a game, and we're really talking about a small sample size. We're talking about four games.
00:52:57
Speaker
so i think it's it's I'm hesitant to read too much into their struggles when they had long stretches of being very good offensively. Yeah.
00:53:12
Speaker
All right, this one's from Ty. What formation could we possibly see that includes all three DPs and Jesus? Is Pedro on the bench? If he's healthy, does it doesn't make a ton of sense, but he's the odd man out in a big... Is he the odd man out in a big game? I mean, I think that the 4-2-3-1 with Jordan up top and and Pedro and Jesus on the wings, Russ Knackers is the 10. Yeah.
00:53:36
Speaker
you know, the easiest way. It gets trickier if you are playing with three center backs, because then either um Pedro is a wingback or Albert plays much deeper. and You know, I mean, maybe that's the answer, right? When, uh, when Obed leaves is Rosenak slides deeper and and Pedro plays at the 10. I doubt it, but it's, it's a possibility. Um,
00:54:03
Speaker
I think you could see two striker setups, you know, I think you could see a four four two where they managed to get off all of them on the field, um like a diamond type four four two. um Yeah. Yeah. I suppose there's a way you might be able to work it where.
00:54:18
Speaker
Well, that would be pretty tough. I was gonna say you might be able to work it where you have like a three man back line and sort of like a box midfield. But yeah, I don't that would be tough to fit all all the players like I did come up with some formations but you sort of in order to get all of them on the field in a three back you really need de la Vega to be sort of a wing back which I don't know if how likely that is.
00:54:44
Speaker
Yeah, but you you know I think you could see a ah box 442 as well, right? i think I think that's totally feasible to see. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah.
00:54:55
Speaker
Last one from the Joshua. ah Do players actually live in the Seattle area when they are sounders? Does that mean like De La Vega will live in the area? Does that mean Jesus and Paul will move? I'm curious if that is the case
Do Sounders Players Reside in Seattle During the Season?
00:55:07
Speaker
generally. And then we did get some clarification on this. yeah Basically they're asking, do they take up residence or are they just kind of in a hotel for the duration of the season?
00:55:16
Speaker
Yeah, as far as I know, nobody other than Oba sort of like did the long term hotel thing. And most of these guys are at least renting condos, if not full blown buying houses. You know, most of the players at this point, the sounders have a lot of guys who have been here for a long time. And I would guess that.
00:55:36
Speaker
There are only one or two players who aren't considering this their main um like main base of operations. Does that mean that Jesus Ferreira is going to move here and look to buy a house right away? Probably not. i Paul Ariola, maybe not either. But at the same time, Will Bruin came here and bought a house within the first year he was here. So it's not unprecedented where they'll actually do something like that.
00:56:04
Speaker
But yeah, I mean, most of the players ah basically call it home. I mean, that this is a 10-month season, basically. 11-month season, really, if you include preseason. And they just don't have the ability to to not move here. Yeah, you're you're you're going to be here. If you've got a family, I would imagine you're going to want them to be here as well.
00:56:26
Speaker
um I think maybe if you're like a veteran journeyman, you know and you're not expecting to be here for longer than a year, you you tell the kids to stay put. but And even in that situation, you're going to be, you know, renting a condo or something. or yes Yeah. Yeah. Um, I will say most of the players at this point, I mean, it's always been this way. There's usually a few guys that live in Seattle and everyone else lives either on the East side or sometimes closer to the training facility. I i think currently Jackson and Paul might be the only two players who live in Seattle proper.
00:57:06
Speaker
I should probably investigate that a little bit more, but that's ah unfortunately the sad state of affairs as those things go. Yeah, I know that the stocks. I think Alex actually lives in Georgetown, so there's another one. Oh, that's cool. That's cool. That's a cool place to live. My sister actually sold him or his house. Oh, wow. Look at that. It's pretty cool.
00:57:27
Speaker
Um, I know that the Seahawks basically had a blanket, you can't live in the city rule. Uh, and obviously the, yeah, obviously I don't know if they still have that, but they did. Uh, I once cleaned Sean Springs house and I found that out when I was doing that. Uh, and so maybe they don't have that rule anymore, but I wonder if the sounders are sort of encouraged the players to live, uh, outside of the city. I don't know. I mean, it wouldn't be, i would I would be a little surprised if they did that, but I guess it wouldn't be the most outrageous thing in the world.
00:57:58
Speaker
Yeah, I would tell him to pound sand. I would live right in the middle of Capitol Hill if I had that kind of money. I know. I was very sad when I found out that Jordan had left Fremont. He was kind of a neighbor of mine and and he moved to the east side, but that's how it goes. yeah Well, that's the show. ah As a reminder, if you're wondering where do we get all these questions from, they come from our Discord community.
00:58:24
Speaker
And if you're asking yourself, what the heck's a Discord in community? Well, it's ah it's basically ah um a message board, for lack of a better term. And you can get access to that by becoming a supporter or above a member of Sound at Heart, that's the $75 a year level. And if you want to get on there, it's it's a lot of fun. we We keep adding more and more people every every week, and read almost every day, it seems like there's new people joining it. So it's been been and entertaining, especially this off-season. I feel like this off-season was much, much more active than any other period that we've had. Yeah.
00:59:05
Speaker
But, uh, and then we'll, we'll come back. We'll do another, we'll probably have one more preseason mailbag. We are planning a few events. Uh, the big one we're, we're, I don't know if I even officially told you this, Aaron, y'all might be breaking news to you, but fast fashion is bringing back craft casual, which is the beer we did for yacht con in 2020.
00:59:30
Speaker
one. And that's a collaboration with Stoop Brewing. And I think we're going to try to do a release party on the Friday before the season opener. So like February 21st at Fast Fashion in Soto. So put that on your calendar. It's not in stone yet, but that's that's what we're going to try to do. And we're going to maybe have some more things to do this this preseason. But anyway, ah thanks for hanging out, Aaron.
01:00:00
Speaker
Yeah, thanks for thanks for hanging out as well. You had you did tell me that I just realized I have a show that night at nine o'clock. So that's going to be a. We're going to have to move it. Tell me, I guess so. You know, I'll be performing.
01:00:13
Speaker
No, God no. You kidding me? Oh, you're going to like a concert. Yeah, going to a show. But I can do both. I have time. Okay. Yeah. We can definitely figure that out. Yeah, absolutely. All right. Well, thanks again to Lickit for producing this. Thanks to Fullpool Wines for sponsoring us. I'm Jeremiah Shan, signing off for Aaron Campo. This is No Study Yetis. Remember, you will never get alone.
01:01:12
Speaker
We love you. Let's win another one!