SI403: Trend Following in an Era of Geopolitical Risk ft. Marat Molyboga & Katy Kaminski

Geopolitical tensions, inflation shocks, and shifting market regimes are reshaping the investment landscape. Marat Molyboga and Katy Kaminski joins us to explore why managed futures have historically performed well during periods of geopolitical stress and why investors often misunderstand the role of crisis alpha in a portfolio. The conversation examines inflation driven market disruptions, diversification, short term versus long term trend following, portfolio construction, and the behavioural mistakes that prevent many investors from capturing the full benefits of trend strategies. It is a wide ranging discussion about risk, uncertainty, and adapting to a changing world.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction and welcome to the Systematic Investor series

01:13 - Marat Molyboga's background and Efficient Capital's investment philosophy

05:29 - World Cup excitement, soccer stories, and thoughts beyond markets

11:36 - AI, market concentration, energy trends, and major macro headlines

15:16 - Trend following performance review and key market drivers in 2026

23:36 - Understanding crisis alpha and the role of managed futures in portfolios

33:24 - Diversification, portfolio construction, and avoiding investor mistakes

44:08 - Geopolitical risk research and its connection to inflation

53:01 - Why managed futures have historically benefited from geopolitical uncertainty