GM102: China Built a Trap. Germany Set It. America Fell In. Europe Is Next ft. Michael Pettis

Michael Pettis joins Alan Dunne for a wide ranging conversation on trade imbalances, globalization and the future of the world economy. Drawing on decades of research into China, Europe and financial history, Pettis argues that persistent trade surpluses are ultimately rooted in domestic income imbalances rather than national competitiveness. The discussion explores why China struggles to rebalance, why Europe may face its biggest challenge yet, and how US reindustrialization could reshape global trade. From Bretton Woods to modern tariffs, this episode offers a provocative framework for understanding the forces driving the next phase of the global economy.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on LinkedIn.

Follow Michael on X.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Michael Pettis warns that the real trade reckoning may still lie ahead

01:07 - Introduction to Michael Pettis and his background in finance and economics

06:34 - Why trade imbalances are ultimately driven by income imbalances

09:59 - Germany’s Hartz reforms and the roots of European imbalances

17:22 - Competitiveness versus productivity and the hidden costs of wage suppression

27:48 - China’s growth model and why rebalancing has proved so difficult

35:54 - Who will absorb China’s trade surplus if the US closes its deficit?

40:24 - Can the United States successfully reindustrialize?

45:31 -