SI406: Why Uncertainty Is a Trend Follower’s Best Friend ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Markets rarely move in straight lines, but periods of uncertainty often create the biggest opportunities for systematic investors. Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Mark Rzepczynski examine why geopolitical shocks, changing Federal Reserve leadership and shifting market regimes continue to shape trend following performance. They explore why only a handful of markets often drive returns, how diversification really works when correlations suddenly rise, and why managed futures have historically stood apart during periods of elevated volatility. Along the way, they discuss the future of monetary policy, economic data, AI driven productivity and what investors should watch as the second half of the year unfolds.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Boston's World Cup beer shortage and remembering Alan Greenspan
05:14 - Greenspan's legacy, interest rates and lessons from 1994
10:45 - Trend following performance and the markets driving returns
14:14 - Why diversification matters and how many markets are enough
20:47 - Looking ahead to the second half of the year
23:10 - What defines a market regime change
27:49 - The new Fed Chair and five major policy priorities
39:12 - Why monetary policy changes matter for trend followers
48:28 - Research into hedge fund strategies and risk regimes
56:06 - Why managed futures stand out during periods of market stress
01:02:30 - Portfolio construc
