Transcript

Pablo Tomasi: So is quantum computing moving beyond the lab? So this is going to be one of the main questions in today's episode. Welcome back to the Telco Drift a podcast exploring tech telecoms and sci -fi And today I'm joined by Sam Lucero.

Pablo Tomasi: founder of Lucero Foresight and an industry analyst that specialize on the quantum world lucero Sam, welcome to The Drift.

Sam Lucero: Thank you, Pablo. It's great to be here.

Pablo Tomasi: So first of all, before we dive into the the quantum world. um Can you just provide a quick introduction about yourself?

Sam Lucero: Sure, so I've been an industry analyst for the past 25 years and in 2021 I started analyzing the quantum computing industry.

Sam Lucero: So just recently, over the past few months, I've launched my own. research practice Lucero Foresight as you mentioned and I'm focusing on multiple aspects of quantum technology, computing,

Sam Lucero: networking sensing, and cybersecurity. So very interesting areas and I'm happy to join you today to speak to them.

Pablo Tomasi: amazing and and definitely my the italian in me you know comes up whenever i i I see your surname because, you know, for us it's a very strong C. did Do you happen to have any distant relatives in Italy or Europe?

Pablo Tomasi: that you know of

Sam Lucero: i not that i know of personally it's been a while um but i certainly have italian heritage but on uh i'm I'm a mutt. so I have all of Europe in my heritage at this point.

Pablo Tomasi: Nice, nice. So, okay, let's let's get started then, you know, discussing quantum. And you chose a fascinating subject. and and Not one of the easiest one so you absolutely need to help but myself and the audience get a bit of a better understanding of it And first of all, maybe Can we can we put quantum computing in context?

Pablo Tomasi: uh so particularly when we think about the quantum world how does it compare with other quantum technologies that could be like networking or sensing or even the cyber security side

Sam Lucero: Sure. So all four areas are at an early stage of technology and market development, but they vary. uh one from the other and so sensing is the most mature of the four.

Sam Lucero: There are types of sensors like atomic clocks and SQUIDS that have been commercialized for decades, although there's obviously still a lot of innovation going on in that area.

Sam Lucero: The other areas are at a more nascent area. Quantum computing, for instance, is just making that inflection point, as we can discuss from lab experiments to commercial deployments.

Sam Lucero: And quantum networking is also in a nascent stage. it's looking to be very important for quantum computing scale up actually And in terms of cybersecurity,

Sam Lucero: It has received a lot of prominence and attention because of the threat that quantum computers at some point are going to break. classical encryption algorithms. and so Cybersecurity is becoming top of mind for chief information security officers and for government. organizations, certainly.

Pablo Tomasi: and um if we think about all these different sort of sides of the quantum world um Can we have a quick look at the at the ecosystem? in in the sense that we're seeing the same players playing across all different sides of the quantum world and are we see that sort of traditional i'm not even sure we should call them traditional tech players but you know kind of the big names that we see in cloud in it t or whatever being part of this quantum world okay can you provide just a couple of names a couple of examples

Sam Lucero: Yeah, certainly. So we do see traditional tech players like IBM. Cisco, Google, Microsoft, Amazon. certainly playing in quantum.

Sam Lucero: as well as pure plays, so companies like IQM, which is a big quantum computing hardware manufacturer out of Finland, very important in the European and more broadly global context.

Sam Lucero: and um we see this in terms of interconnected ecosystems. So... when we look at quantum computing.

Sam Lucero: I mentioned that it will have an impact on cybersecurity.

Sam Lucero: considerations. when we look at quantum networking. It has implications on quantum computing and how able industries will be to scale up quantum computing.

Sam Lucero: and so these ecosystems are are definitely interconnected and so some of these players certainly do ah play across. multiple areas. there's a company called IONQ for instance which is very prominent and it plays in all four areas.

Sam Lucero: computing, networking, cybersecurity, sensing. um IBM is a player that is... very strong in computing and in cyber security and just acquired a company called HRL laboratory so it is now a quantum sensing player as well So we do get... companies that overlap across these four different domains.

Sam Lucero: But we also get companies that are specific to just one area or another. So for example, Classiq.

Sam Lucero: is a software company purely in the quantum computing space. Qarakal Quantum is an Israeli vendor. it is developing ah a quantum computing hardware. offering.

Sam Lucero: and we see this as a Sort of mixture that is still evolving. So we're just starting to see some M and &A activity for instance uh becoming more prominent so some shuffling between these camps i mentioned hrl laboratories We also see adopters.

Sam Lucero: playing an increasingly important role. So interestingly, companies like Airbus, GM, Morgan Stanley are actually very active. And.

Sam Lucero: helping the vendor community to develop these technologies so as opposed to just waiting for vendors to throw the technology and the solutions over the wall to them.

Sam Lucero: um We see... companies that play at different levels of the value chain. so We have... hardware vendors as I mentioned. We have software vendors like Q -CTRL that focus really on optimizing system performance.

Sam Lucero: We have. other software vendors like Cassiq that I mentioned that focus on optimizing the developer experience. So there's a lot of different areas where these companies play.

Sam Lucero: And there's also you know extensive academic programs. and these you know the The rationale, the reason behind all this is that Quantum, you know offers the promise of being able to do things that traditional classical technologies can't and so these companies are trying to capitalize on that opportunity and actually make it real.

Pablo Tomasi: It's fascinating because the the scale itself of like the companies we mentioned, whether they are established players or whether they are new players. it kind of you know shows. in a very at least for me in a very visual way how big this opportunity can be and how potentially, you know, novel was disruptive, depending on which side of the of the market you're at.

Sam Lucero: Yeah.

Pablo Tomasi: quantum can be. but but let let let's move move on with sort of like the the main question if you want uh of the of the podcast so Is quantum computing still a lab experiment?

Pablo Tomasi: or are there examples of quantum computing being used for actual production workloads because that is sort of for me is going to be the the tipping point right when we move from the r and d lab to real world.

Sam Lucero: Absolutely. Well, I mentioned that the industry is just starting that inflection point on the quantum computing side. And, you know, to...

Sam Lucero: put a line under that you know virtually all of the announcements are still pilot stage are still about companies, adopters.

Sam Lucero: learning about the technology, how it's going to apply to their problems, developing their own expertise and IP around it. But... there are specific examples where quantum computing again specifically is moving to production deployments and One of the examples that I think will resonate a lot with your viewers in the telecom space is NTT Docomo.

Sam Lucero: So they have announced and they use the term production deployment of an application based on D -Wave annealing quantum computers.

Sam Lucero: And a annealing computer is just a type of quantum computer. D -Wave is a longtime vendor in this space. And what NTT Docomo has announced is a way to optimize.

Sam Lucero: the signaling traffic in their tracking area. And so this is obviously a very complex combinatorial optimization problem. and what The company has announced, specifically in terms of figures of merit associated with this, is a 65 .3 % reduction.

Sam Lucero: in the signaling traffic at daily peak from the mobile phones to the network and a 7 % reduction in paging signals from the network.

Sam Lucero: out to the mobile phones. So that reduction in traffic is the result of an optimization run on quantum computers today that NTT Docomo says could not have been done on the solutions that they would otherwise have used. theyve This is actually...

Sam Lucero: the second or third in a series of deployment announcements that they've made Uh, i would encourage your viewers to look into it it's really interesting They've talked about other benefits that they've had with respect to their use of of the D -Wave.

Sam Lucero: platform so It is certainly not just pilot programs toy problems It is at a stage where it's starting to have meaningful impact And that signaling optimization, that that network optimization, is certainly an area that telecom operators globally are looking at.

Pablo Tomasi: and and it's ah yeah that's That's really interesting when when you can see something that is actually you know like live and with measurable results. you know that's that's the big difference that you know from from people having always bold claims about, you know, this could do this and could do that, but this is sort of measurable results. And NTT, DOCOMO NTT in general, fascinating company.

Pablo Tomasi: They do so many different things.

Sam Lucero: Yeah.

Pablo Tomasi: there is There is a part of NTT that is looking into the the NTN. Side of things so that really anything that you can think of they're working on it but but so if we're thinking about sort of the goal of quantum computing

Sam Lucero: Yeah.

Pablo Tomasi: is effectively to... to find to have an advantage right compared to to to the classical. classic way of computing So my question for you is what are early signposts and activities?

Pablo Tomasi: that are showing that the quantum um my my provide that sort of advantage versus what we currently use.

Sam Lucero: Sure. So I'll just quickly differentiate. There's two types of advantage that we need to focus on when we discuss this. One is

Sam Lucero: formal mathematical computational advantage and the other is more of an empirical advantage. So the D -Wave example, the NTT DOCOMO example, I would classify as empirical advantage. And it's more of a...

Sam Lucero: commercial judgment made by the adopter of the technology saying, we received an advantage compared to what we would normally do. And that's entirely in the eye of the beholder.

Sam Lucero: And so I think that's where we are going to start seeing the initial. announcements of advantage and of adoption. And it will start in niche areas.

Sam Lucero: Like. signaling traffic optimization, for instance, and other niche areas. And it will grow out from those areas to become more broad -based and encompassing.

Sam Lucero: There is a... strong effort. to try to find more algorithms, quantum algorithms that can make use. of quantum computers to provide that.

Sam Lucero: asymptotic advantage that mathematically provable advantage that is really the holy grail of the industry. There's a few key areas. i mean Shor's algorithm is the asymptotic provable advantage in factoring large numbers which is the underpinning of the threat to cryptography that quantum computers will have at some point.

Sam Lucero: There's advantages right now in simulation. provided you have a large enough, performant enough quantum computer. But... there's a lot of effort that needs to happen to find other algorithms. I think in terms of signposts, you know looking at these announcements,

Sam Lucero: Of. production use like NTT DOCOMO, but also keeping an eye out for announcements of pilot projects because these are areas where industry is making.

Sam Lucero: an important Uh, a point in advance. in terms of working with the end users to actually determine how to make use of quantum in specific areas. so Recently, I looked at Classiq the software.

Sam Lucero: company I mentioned earlier. that had worked with Israel natural gas lines. on a pilot project optimizing the flow of gas through the pipeline.

Sam Lucero: distribution infrastructure. Again another example of a very complex combinatorial optimization problem. and it i think It's a production. pilot I mean, it's a pilot.

Sam Lucero: program. And they're very clear that there's you know multiple steps that are going to need to happen before. is really Israel national natural gas lines is going to use this in production.

Sam Lucero: But it's a sign of... how things are developing. and So I think those are um you know really important to to pay attention to. And.

Sam Lucero: Looking at those and again, really keeping in mind the difference between algorithmic advantage and empirical advantage is really important because it's really the the algorithm the empirical advantage where we'll start to see the first signs of real undisputable undisputable commercial benefit.

Pablo Tomasi: Mm hmm. uh My mind is all over the place. This is really complex stuff. I'm so happy that I'm just covering 5G. That is so much simpler. but uh so if we're thinking so what would it take to achieve them broad -based advantage in quantum computing.

Sam Lucero: a few things first in terms of the hardware we need more qubits We need. faster cubits and we need better quality.

Sam Lucero: qubits. um So we're basically trying to scale up or scale out. We need bigger, more performant. machines to do the calculations.

Sam Lucero: And because quantum computing is so sensitive, to the environment which ironically from a quantum sensing standpoint is actually a feature, not a bug, but from a computing standpoint,

Sam Lucero: is very definitely a problem. we need what's called quantum error correction, which are different ways to correct for those errors that are happening at the physical level.

Sam Lucero: by essentially clustering groups of physical qubits into one logical qubit. And so there's a lot of work underway to develop and enhance those quantum error correction.

Sam Lucero: techniques in order to make the system were performant. And then in terms of... ah the algorithms. I kind of touched on this already, but Just to expand a bit more, we need more. algorithms.

Sam Lucero: so the The funny thing about quantum computers is they're actually not faster. than classical computers, which sounds completely counterintuitive. But on a per operation basis, if you look at you know, a gate operation on a quantum computer versus an operation on a classical transistor. it's like a thousand times.

Sam Lucero: million times you know slower, it you know depending on the type of system you're using. And. You. you You really can't use these to advantage unless you have an algorithm that can make use of it.

Sam Lucero: soon. What is a quantum algorithm fundamentally? It's basically an algorithm where... You can. by you leveraging the quantum mechanical properties of the computer you can do a calculation in fewer steps, ideally exponentially fewer steps.

Sam Lucero: maybe superpolynomially fewer steps. than a similar computation. on a classical computer. So it's not a matter of the... the the quantum computing hardware is faster.

Sam Lucero: Yes. a question of can your algorithm make the calculation in far fewer steps And just as an aside, you know one metaphor I heard one time that really resonated with me. you know just to kind of you know really bring this home.

Sam Lucero: and paint a picture. You know, imagine two boats leaving from Miami and they're trying to get to Los Angeles. And one is a sailboat, one is a big speed boat that can...

Sam Lucero: travel the ocean waters, right? and they both leave Miami. They're both they're going down the Caribbean. Well, the speedboat continues on. down you know the coast of brazil and it's going to The sailboat, which is the much... slower boat.

Sam Lucero: cuts across the Panama Canal. and goes up to Los Angeles. So it wins. It's a slower boat. It wins. That's kind of the fundamental idea here of leveraging an algorithm.

Sam Lucero: for a quantum computer. So it's an interesting that was a really interesting concept for me to to learn to internalize.

Pablo Tomasi: I like the example that that you you gave because when you were explaining did The idea that... came to my mind was like i'm playing a video game and i go through every single level but if i know the cheat code I skip levels.

Pablo Tomasi: and i go faster to the end and that for me was a little bit you know how However, imagine it, you know, you're kind of starting instead of starting from level one, you start immediately from level three or like you jump steps and you go.

Pablo Tomasi: further away. But the boat idea definitely definitely brought it home for me. But something else that you mentioned. So you started mentioning error correction. And... and I wonder, is that something that sort of... classical ai can can help with.

Pablo Tomasi: or more in general. How can we use? AI to to help developing this quantum world.

Sam Lucero: Absolutely. So... Yeah, and really that's been one of the most interesting developments over the past say nine to 12 months. in the quantum computing industry is Just.

Sam Lucero: how much classical AI is becoming an important part. of quantum computing technology. development. so And it's even got its own name now. it's It's AI for QC. And there's a bunch of different ways that this is happening in the industry.

Sam Lucero: So I took a look. at the news flow over the last. three to four months and and kind of looked at you know what the trends were and there's five key areas that I'm seeing. um Quantum error correction and fault tolerance.

Sam Lucero: is probably the most important. use case in terms of both the number of announcements and the quality of the announcements. And I'll touch on that here in a bit. it's quantum hardware development, quantum algorithm and circuit development.

Sam Lucero: quantum research automation. quantum application evaluation, execution, or other areas. But. um Error correction. and thought tolerance.

Sam Lucero: are seeing a lot. of activity and focus and just to pull three of these recent announcements again this is just in the past three months or so

Pablo Tomasi: oh wow

Sam Lucero: There's an announcement by Nvidia on quantum error decoding. Decoders are essentially the systems that... they're classical systems and they basically In effect, and this is...

Sam Lucero: the gross oversimplification, but they basically understand what errors are occurring in the quantum computer. and then they correct for it. and they use the control system to correct those errors and they need to do this very quickly. in real time as these errors are happening.

Sam Lucero: And as we scale up... quantum computers there's going to be a huge Loaded. huge amount of data. coming out of these quantum computers just on. the error correction the decoding that needs to happen So.

Sam Lucero: what um companies are finding is that ai classical ai can help there and so NVIDIA with their Ising. decoder.

Sam Lucero: ah It's an open. offering. IBM has announced a specialized quantum error correction decoder chip.

Sam Lucero: that they developed with AI. and Google. announced logical operations and error suppression. techniques basically around what they call magic state cultivation. and In the interest of time, maybe I won't go into magic state cultivation, but they...

Pablo Tomasi: It seems a long detour, but I'm sure it's fascinating.

Sam Lucero: That might be a detour. But I pull out those three examples just you know because you these are huge companies. And they're using AI in very visible.

Sam Lucero: ways classical AI to really ah move the state of the art of quantum computing forward. So I think that's fascinating. I think that's just going to... Uh, increase going forward.

Pablo Tomasi: and and once again what what what i've seen and you know a few of the other episodes like there is no technology barrier in a sense there is no technology silos you know like everything that different parts of the ecosystem are doing can be used in different technologies, can kind of cross -pollinate and help drive the next innovation. And I think that is... the that's great and we see more and more of that going forward and And by the way...

Sam Lucero: Yeah.

Pablo Tomasi: hopefully the mic is not picking up my cat but it's been meowing for the last 10 minutes

Sam Lucero: a

Pablo Tomasi: just Just in case there is some background noise that sounds like a cat meowing. I mean, this is like extremely interesting for me and and I would definitely need to to keep my mind on it to to fully understand it.

Pablo Tomasi: But now maybe what I want to do is kind of switch. topic completely in a sense. and Because I'm interested a ah lot in the in your experience. Oh. you know, your journey to launch uh lucero foresight uh you know we move from like the content of you know quantum and everything now into why do you decide to launch lucero foresight

Sam Lucero: Sure, so... I think. as we've been talking about, you know because... the technology market is at this inflection point. you know This is exactly the right time.

Sam Lucero: to launch an industry analyst firm into this area. Now, you underscore, I'm not new to quantum technology. I've been... analyzing quantum computing for the past five years, but I think that this is a particularly opportune time to establish a Into an industry analyst firm because we are moving as we've been discussing moving from you know these this lab experience.

Sam Lucero: pilot stage. to the first inklings of production. deployments and commercial traction. and It's exactly then at that point that you need.

Sam Lucero: industry analysts, and you know you obviously know this very well, you need industry analysts to you know provide clarity on issues such as market opportunities, ecosystem structures and competitive to dynamics you know this is what industry analysts do and as a consequence you know across different technology.

Sam Lucero: markets, semiconductors, telecoms, you know we've seen industry analysts as a group become important parts of these various industry ecosystems. It's happening now with AI for instance, and it it is happening and will happen with quantum. computing and quantum sensing. and quantum g quantum technology more generally.

Sam Lucero: So. um that's what i am a part of and what i'm trying to push forward and I'm excited to do so.

Pablo Tomasi: And I like how you you mentioned that you're not new to quantum, and and I'm pretty sure everyone that has been listening... got the message very clear that you're not new to to covering this market because because you you obviously you know you Eat this.

Pablo Tomasi: you showcase your your experience, your insights, and your understanding of what is ah an extreme extremely complicated subject. but But again, so, because we...

Pablo Tomasi: We used to work together at IHS a long, long time ago ah in another life, really. So I'm curious, how are you using your experience to to shape this new endeavor that you have undertaken?

Sam Lucero: so I've been an analyst for 25 years now, and I think that there's ways to leverage that. very usefully now for quantum you know so you know I think in terms of the benefits of that experience, you know i've I've analyzed.

Sam Lucero: the tech value chain across different markets from semiconductors to services. So I think that gives me a very wide -angle lens.

Sam Lucero: with which to view the market for quantum technology. In terms of... Seeing how growth can trend over time, you know 25 years is enough time to see how technologies come and grow and level off and you know become mature basically and

Pablo Tomasi: Yeah.

Sam Lucero: you know, so I think that there's a, you know, fourth dimension of time element of looking at how markets progress that you know I'm bringing to bear in the analysis. of quantum technologies.

Sam Lucero: I've developed an extensive analyst toolkit. Over that time, you know, it's it's interesting I think Being an analyst is... you know It's a real profession. I mean, there's actually a toolkit of techniques and technologies to to bring to bear.

Sam Lucero: so for instance market opportunity forecasting i mean it's forecasting in its own right is is an area of study it's not you know Kind of. putting a finger in the wind and you know baking uh you know it's there's a lot that that goes into it you know and techniques and technology and so forth and so that's a lot of very concrete technical skill experience that I bring into it.

Sam Lucero: And just... understanding how a very diverse range of clients and perspective ah customers. what they want and need from technology. uh market research you know i think that that's important too because it helps me to you know begin with the end in mind. as you if you will you know to really understand how my efforts make an impact.

Sam Lucero: and how to organize everything I do around. making the most positive impact that I can. for clients.

Pablo Tomasi: And. Because you've been active 25 years and and I know you know you have covered different markets. how How do you think this is?

Pablo Tomasi: quantum computing is compared with other emerging technologies that that you have. and lies in the past.

Sam Lucero: Yeah, certainly will. Most of my time has been focused on emerging technologies and so like other emerging tech markets There's a critical effort in a way in quantum computing really to, and especially...

Sam Lucero: in terms of aligning very complex technology developments. with nuanced economic factors. in order to solve customer problems.

Sam Lucero: And so that is... in fundamental ways very similar to other technologies markets like iot that i spent I'd say the majority of my time, 15 years in total.

Sam Lucero: So that is... really interesting to observe and gives me a a sort of gut feel almost. for the technology development you know what When I started one of the first IoT research programs in 2005.

Sam Lucero: And quantum technology feels... To me now, like the IoT did in... 2007 you know right before it was really starting to take off in 2008, 2009. By 2009, it was...

Sam Lucero: you know, Big. telecom companies at mobile world congress suddenly had it you know front and center and their main show floor booths right whereas you know 2005 2006 you know at mobile world congress it was a tiny little

Pablo Tomasi: Mm hmm.

Sam Lucero: you know section to itself off in the corner of a hall somewhere in the distance and just little stand -up boots so it it's It's interesting kind of seeing the parallels and in how and how things feel. um so i think that kind of ties back into the you know this being a really good time to you know really start a solo practice, a new practice in quantum technology.

Pablo Tomasi: And yet... timing in in the tech world as always. critical one one one more question though actually it's like two questions but i'm gonna combine them um because you are a a solo practitioner i'm curious how you're approaching you know your job and also what advice could you give but at the same time the other part of the question is that uh how do you think AI is shaping the role of the analyst in a sense.

Sam Lucero: Yeah. well that's Really, AI in general is obviously really top of mind. for all of us these days. I think in terms of the analyst role in particular,

Sam Lucero: You know, it's both a threat. as well as an opportunity. So in terms of... threat. um you know there's There's obviously the risk of...

Sam Lucero: AI. slop I'll call it, just AI derived results. Swamping and crowding out. paid market research.

Sam Lucero: there's the risk of and I can go into that a little bit more but there's the risk of... growing. cognitive deficits and skills deficits. with increasing use of AI.

Sam Lucero: I think there's been a lot of research showing that you know is happening. when AI use becomes... sort of undifferentiated or used in a non -discriminatory way.

Sam Lucero: non -discriminating way um and i think it's particularly worrisome for me if i take a step back and think about students today and early career professionals where you know You hear stories and reports of you know real challenges in terms of developing critical thinking.

Sam Lucero: capabilities so you know just apart from being an analyst you know i just kind of worry about that kind of in general There's obviously the threat of AI hallucinations and errors. you know I think there's been a couple of big stories out now of...

Sam Lucero: major global consulting firms that have had to refund. six -figure fees back to government clients because the deliverable had

Pablo Tomasi: Yep.

Sam Lucero: AI hallucinations embedded into it. you know No one wants to...

Pablo Tomasi: you You would think they would check twice you know before sending such a big project, but clearly...

Sam Lucero: Yeah.

Pablo Tomasi: Not the case.

Sam Lucero: Right. And well we all see examples of, you know, we're reading some piece of content and there's, you know, some little piece of it in there of.

Sam Lucero: you know, like one of the prompt messages still gets, you know, in the, you know, just, yeah, it's it's kind of ah of a head slapper, but it happens.

Pablo Tomasi: Yeah.

Sam Lucero: And then, you know again, really specific to analysts, I think, you know in terms of the potential harms that AI can have with the relationships, the human relationships that... analysts have with their stakeholders and potentially with their audiences.

Sam Lucero: So I think that those are are real areas, all of them, to be concerned about. to really think actively about how to mitigate those threats. But you know it's not all downside. you know Clearly, there's there's opportunities as well, particularly maybe even for, especially for a solo practitioner. you know And I'd say in terms of how I'm looking at it.

Sam Lucero: know I think it can really help to scale up and and speed up. non -cognitive and non... primary functions. and so i really want to underscore that non -cognitive non -primary functions and to give some concrete examples around that. you know i've been experimenting with using ai in terms of web search and you know helping me to prepare for

Sam Lucero: company briefings. because Obviously, as analysts, you know we we want to be prepared before we talk to a company. Make the best use of the time. make the most Ask the questions we can't ask.

Sam Lucero: we can't get answers to anywhere else. And I'm finding that used carefully, AI can can help. rapidly pull together information about that company and structure it in a way that's very useful and of course you know You still have to check everything. You still have to make the AI give you the sources to everything it's saying.

Sam Lucero: But it... it does it it is helping me to make more constructive use of the time. is a valuable time that I have when I'm speaking one -on -one with company executives.

Sam Lucero: I think another way it's useful is in... functions like copy editing and fact checking. um So these are. functions that when you and I worked at IHS,

Sam Lucero: um you know working for a large company you have copy editors you have

Pablo Tomasi: you know

Sam Lucero: ah you know There's a function there that can do that. Um, i am experimenting with ai doing that but the way i'm doing it though i don't just throw it over the wall to AI, you know the content or whatever, and say, okay, fact check it.

Pablo Tomasi: Done.

Sam Lucero: clean it up, you know, send it back to me.

Pablo Tomasi: Tick. Yeah.

Sam Lucero: i'm I'm very consciously using AI almost as a ah tutor. as ah as an advisor and I say, okay, look this over. Give me recommendations for. you know, what you think I should do from a copy editing standpoint.

Sam Lucero: And tell me why. you think i should do that

Pablo Tomasi: mm -hmm

Sam Lucero: And it's interesting. I feel like my my formal grammar is is actually improving because... i read the recommendation i look at it okay and it's it's it's it's interesting because it actually connects to a grammatical mistake.

Sam Lucero: I may. Now, sometimes I actually don't agree. it was It was a grammatical mistake, or maybe it's a mistake, but... I don't care. I still feel like it sounds more natural. So I'm going to go ahead and use it anyways, you know.

Pablo Tomasi: Mm hmm.

Sam Lucero: but at least it gets me actively thinking about. how I'm using language, how I'm shaping language. um And then. a third thing that i haven't actually done yet but what i'm considering is in terms of content design

Pablo Tomasi: Mm hmm.

Sam Lucero: And what I mean by that is... Not. First, you know revising the first draft so you hear you hear a lot about people saying oh well You know, I write the first draft myself and then I turn it over to AI and...

Sam Lucero: I think that's almost a maximalist use. of ai what i'm talking about is okay Let's say I write a long form report. And it's... you know in final form you know long word style document right it's in final form it's a client deliverable that is shipped out to clients But now I want to, you know, turn it into a PowerPoint presentation.

Sam Lucero: Okay, I mean, I could do it myself, you know, spend time kind of... but I'm not a designer, you know? and

Pablo Tomasi: Yeah.

Sam Lucero: You know, I don't particularly want to hire necessarily you know, at least at this point and in my journey to revenue generation. I don't necessarily want to or can hire a...

Sam Lucero: you know a third -party consultant to help me you know do that. So I'm exploring whether or not you know specific AI services can help facilitate that.

Sam Lucero: Again, that's not a core job of what I do. I'm not a designer. um and so i don't view that as uh cognitive Um, you know, debt incurring cognitive debt you know it's a very non -core but that's that's another way and

Pablo Tomasi: Yeah.

Sam Lucero: you know By the way, I want to be... I want to be careful here as well to to really underscore that. you know when i talk about you know these threats or i talk about using AI or not using AI or when to use AI, I want to be clear that I don't have any particular sort of um moral judgment about using AI.

Sam Lucero: You know, you you hear a lot, you know, on LinkedIn or you know you hear a lot of chatter about, oh, if I see something that's written by AI, I, you know, immediately stop it. I personally don't have that. um You know, look, i'm I'm very fortunate to be able to write.

Sam Lucero: professionally. in my native language. If I wasn't... I would certainly be using AI, the whole calculation of AI as a threat versus AI as a benefit would...

Sam Lucero: might be kind of recalculated there. So, you know, I just want to underscore kind of where I'm i'm coming from with that.

Pablo Tomasi: and and and it makes sense because like uh you know it's they like we always say you know it's a tool and then

Sam Lucero: with that point

Pablo Tomasi: depending how you use it you know it could become sort of more dangerous or could be you know kind of helping you towards achieving your your goals. what What I like about what you said about using AI is that, as you mentioned, you the the cognitive...

Pablo Tomasi: part of your job you know sort of the the intellectual challenge still resides with you. Because I do think something else that you you mentioned, the more you use AI... the more you kind of get addicted to it and the more you use it to things that you should not necessarily use it but then again normally you would think how to solve a problem but now it's faster and easier

Sam Lucero: Yeah.

Pablo Tomasi: to just ask. whatever AI you're using but then by doing so you are kind of going down a slippery slope you keep asking how to do things rather than finding yourself a solution And that that could be a problem, yeah, for like, especially maybe... younger people that are yet to fully develop their you know critical thinking But if we could then go specifically, I think we're like almost run of time.

Sam Lucero: Mm.

Pablo Tomasi: in In a couple of words, ah what advice would you give? to someone starting a similar journey and also let me connect to the next question where can people find more information about your uh about your firm

Sam Lucero: Great. Yeah, so... you know Given you know the current environment around AI, I would definitely... We recommend focusing on...

Sam Lucero: what you as an analyst can provide that AI can't. I think the table stakes to that are really first party data, proprietary data and analysis.

Sam Lucero: He knows. data, you know content that... AI can't. scrape or train and and offer. you know that's just absolute you know.

Sam Lucero: hygiene table stakes. I think beyond that, you know it gets maybe a bit more nebulous. you know i you know really being able to leverage human relationships relationships with both you know your stakeholders and your audience. you know that's something that you know AI really doesn't replicate. know I know that there's this trans you know this talk about you know replacing search engine optimization with...

Sam Lucero: AI optimization, but you know really a trusted audience. An audience that trusts you is not something that AI can... can deliver up. um And so that trust and reputation, I think, is a key differentiator for a human analyst. and just really keeping a human in the works. um And I don't know you know how long this will stay as a differentiator or...

Sam Lucero: something to you know recommend to an analyst but for right now at least you know i think that there's something about you know a human sensibility with you know in terms of a moral viewpoint. a lived experience a perspective.

Sam Lucero: that you know resonates with people. in a way that you know machine can't. you know It's in this in a similar way to you know the way that narratives and stories connect with how we as humans receive information and can make use of information, remember it, get excited about it.

Sam Lucero: I think that that's related to just how... a human being at the heart of the advice. And.

Sam Lucero: the interactions between analyst and client or stakeholder. is really critical and I think that's going to remain critical hopefully. for a while um So. Yeah, this this has been great in terms of you know connecting with me. I hope you know your audience will.

Sam Lucero: My website is luceroforesight .com. L U C E R O. foresight .com my email is sam at luceroforesight .com So, you know my website talks a lot more about who i am what i cover how i cover it And then in addition to the website, I also write regularly to a sub stack.

Sam Lucero: called Running Interference Everything is in front of the paywall there. entirely free to sign up to, to to read, and I write.

Sam Lucero: um you know. fairly longish articles analytical articles. pieces 1500 2000 words on a variety of topics like such as what we've covered here today so I really encourage people to you know so you know look at that as well if they're you know wanting to.

Sam Lucero: get more of this type of of insight and Yeah, please reach out.

Pablo Tomasi: And I will put the the website and and your email in the in the you know podcast description so that it's also available there. and very last question because we i mean for for me quantum computing is already sci -fi so that in theory kind of covers the side fly part of this but ah in a more pragmatic way do you have any sci -fi book or movie or tv series you recommend to the audience.

Sam Lucero: Yeah, well we've been talking about AI a lot. uh so i i would suppose i'm not a big sci -fi fan i would suppose The book that really comes to mind in relation to our discussion is Dune.

Sam Lucero: by Frank Herbert. And. I first read Dune in the mid 80s. And you know I was really struck by... um you know the the angle in the book of, you know,

Sam Lucero: Don't. Let. ah machines do your thinking for you you know it's a very core idea you know i think a lot of people have seen the movies and you know seen the you know mentats and you know the human calculators. And it was a very interesting idea for me at the time that I...

Sam Lucero: really misunderstood until just recently because I saw the discussion of you know Don't give up your humanity for machines. is it seemed at the time kind of quaint to me. I mean, the metats in the book were actually you know taking the role of calculators. and I thought, okay, that's...

Sam Lucero: it's an interesting idea but you know doesn't really have a

Pablo Tomasi: Never gonna happen.

Sam Lucero: and irrelevant. And. I... Yeah. It is crazy, but we get to, you know, current day AI. And it's like, oh.

Sam Lucero: That is what Frank Herbert was talking about. You know, it suddenly has a lot more relevance to what is going on and is directly. it is directly implicated in how what the issues are that society is grappling with. So it's a fascinating, fascinating, visionary book in many ways.

Pablo Tomasi: and a hundred percent agree so definitely recommend you and i also you know the follow -ups and i believe it's gonna be the new movie out sometimes over over christmas if i'm correct but anyways Sam thank you very much really appreciate all your insights and for the audience thank you very much for listening

Sam Lucero: Thank you great joining you great joining your audience. I really appreciate it