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00:00:01
On The Road To 6G And The Fate Of The Analyst
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On this episode of the Telco Drift I discuss how the different strategies from Nokia and Ericsson will create a telco market where the network could truly become a differentiator. I also bring up the question of what is needed to bring on the excitement for 6G beyond the techy and engineering world. Of course there is a short discussion of recent announcements with once again the NTN world grabbing my attention.
I then conclude by throwing my two cents on the analyst versus influencer debate.
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Transcript
Introduction to Telco Drift Podcast
00:00:01
Pablo Tomasi
So welcome back to the Telco Drift, a podcast exploring tech, telecoms, and other sci-fi stories. I'm Pablo, your host. Well, first of all, as you can see from the background, I'm not in my usual recording hub. So for me, this, again, counts as a Telco Drift pub edition. Yes, I'm not in a pub, but you know I'm traveling somewhere. And I think sort of the the idea of recording different locations still counts from me as a pub episode.
Celebrating Milestone: 26th Episode
00:00:31
Pablo Tomasi
But anyway, so big achievement for the podcast as we passed a quarter of a century in terms of number of episodes. So this is going to be episode 26.
00:00:42
Pablo Tomasi
And now talking about the theme of the podcast. So first, I wanted to chat about Ericsson and Nokia. So
Nokia vs Ericsson: Strategic Directions
00:00:50
Pablo Tomasi
you know what those two crazy kids are doing. And and we're going to touch on that, but I i want also to broad broaden out a little bit the conversation. So we will talk about them.
00:01:01
Pablo Tomasi
But I think we will also need to talk a little bit about 6G. And I think that's kind of a natural natural expansion of the conversation. um And because I recently listened to a couple of podcasts,
00:01:16
Pablo Tomasi
about the changing nature of the analyst role and how is that changing when we're thinking about the influencers world. I thought, ah why not share my two cents on this? So how is the analyst world evolving? And by the way, if you're interested in those other podcasts that I mentioned, ill do message me and I will share them with you.
00:01:36
Pablo Tomasi
But okay, let's get started now with, you know, some of the actual content of this podcast. So when we're thinking, what is Nokia doing? What is Ericsson doing? We could have like a very long episode on this, but I just want to provide you with a couple of thoughts on the difference that is emerging between these two vendors. And on one side, of course, Nokia has a much broader portfolio into different markets compared to Ericsson, which is more mobile-world dependent. But that's kind of kind of obvious. So I'm just going to focus on sort of the the mobile side of the story.
00:02:11
Pablo Tomasi
And for me, that side of the story is more and more related with what what will happen with 6G. I won't discuss technical details. And I know everything is in the process of being standardized.
00:02:25
Pablo Tomasi
um But honestly, that the tech part is beyond my pay grade. um So I'm going look a little bit about some of the strategic implications of what you're doing. And for me, they are their strategies, their positioning is diverging significantly.
6G Strategies and Telco Differentiation
00:02:40
Pablo Tomasi
So if we look at Nokia, of course, the company is going down the NVIDIA way with its AI RAN play and the use of GPUs to serve both the needs of the RAN as well as broader computing needs.
00:02:54
Pablo Tomasi
Now, the interesting thing for me is in the idea that the telco world is not enough. And that, if you want, could be seen as an extension of the idea that has been kicked around for some time of telcos network becoming a platform, delivering experiences be beyond beyond what has been their usual giga until now.
00:03:21
Pablo Tomasi
The big challenge, and again, not going to look at the technical side of things, but for such ah an approach to be successful, there is the requirement of telcos completely changing. There is a need for a complete overall of a telco business in my view.
00:03:38
Pablo Tomasi
And we know that telcos are not particularly keen on those big dramatic changes. So I'm wondering whether Texas are really willing to do that or not, because without us changing across the whole board, I'm not sure that such a play could really be successful.
00:03:58
Pablo Tomasi
Now, Ericsson instead aye and gives me the impression to be taking a more traditional approach. So effectively, once to make its best is of making the run itself as best as it can be, rather than really creating that very, very broad ah you know GPU and platform play.
00:04:23
Pablo Tomasi
Now, again, for more RAN information, i really need to convince Remy, my favorite run expert, to join me on the pod. So if you are listening and you know him, just give him a nudge to join me live, because glad he can really discuss in depth these type of topics.
00:04:40
Pablo Tomasi
um But significantly, when I look at the strategies, okay you have one that is going rogue, it's a bit more bold in what it's trying to achieve, and the other is a little bit more ah possibly lenient, maybe can say not necessarily conservative, but more in line with what was expected by the vendor.
A Telco World That Will Be Different
00:05:01
Pablo Tomasi
um But what's important as well, is that because these two strategies are so different, I think that for the first time in a long time, ah we can see that a telco choosing one path or the other will bring significant differences in the future of the telcos.
00:05:23
Pablo Tomasi
And the network itself can really become differentiator depending on you know which path you decide to take. And I know you're going to tell me that there are examples right now of Telcos that have made the right bets on 5G and that they can use their network as differentiator. Yes, there are some examples of that, but I would say there not a lot of those examples. So there are a few of them. And I think that with 6G, with different paths being taken, there is the opportunity for Telcos to really start
00:05:59
Pablo Tomasi
differentiating one from the other. and And that will be interesting to see because right now everyone does the same thing, which is sort of kind of boring in my view. However, there is also another point that I think it's important to to be made and that no matter what will be the preferred vendor,
00:06:18
Pablo Tomasi
because of the unique situation of Western telecoms, which is a market where some players cannot, it's a market in which some players cannot play.
00:06:31
Pablo Tomasi
So there are primarily two big options, right, that we have discussed so far. And I think that no telco will in any way want to take the risk of being fully dependent on a single vendor.
00:06:45
Pablo Tomasi
And so it doesn't matter the preferred option. There's still going to be a little bit of a compromise if you want. And most telcos will just have to use both vendors just because you cannot be a telco only dependent on a on a single vendor. I think that's that's not going happen.
00:07:06
Pablo Tomasi
So either way, whatever path you choose, you're going to have to use the other one as well somehow. But also something else just came to mind. i know vendors and engineers and tech people are really excited about 6G.
00:07:21
Pablo Tomasi
But this is like an honest question. um Why should consumers or telcos or enterprises be excited about 6 g um i don't I don't get it. I know a lot of people don't like when I say these type of things.
00:07:42
Pablo Tomasi
But realistically, what is the excitement for me as a consumer, as a tech or as an enterprise? um Again, I do see it from the angle of like the beauty of creation.
00:07:56
Pablo Tomasi
But I'm thinking about who pays for it and who makes money from it. Possibly it's because 5G is still an open wound. um But I think there needs to be something that will bring the excitement past the vendor and development phase into the actual world of real people.
00:08:20
Pablo Tomasi
Now, alongside the excitement or lack of excitement about 6G, I think from my end, I'm really looking forward to anything that is NTN-related or anything that is flying or is away from Earth. And this possibly because it sounds slightly different from what we have seen so far.
00:08:39
Pablo Tomasi
And by the way, i think the time of drones is upon us. so that that's something to keep in mind. Now, thinking about NTN, there's been like one big announcement recently, and that is Amazon Leo announcing its intention to launch 5,150, I believe, satellites that will use Globalstar Spectrum.
00:08:58
Pablo Tomasi
ah Again, that's targeted to the market, voice data messaging, emergency services. and And first of all, for for those who are wondering why did Amazon Leo acquire Globalstar what the bottom line is Spectrum, I think that this announcement makes it quite clear.
00:09:15
Pablo Tomasi
Now, what is also interesting about this announcement is that the company plans to partner with Telcos, so really wants to make sure that there is that clarity in what Amazon Leo wants to do, which is like getting Telcos on board.
00:09:31
Pablo Tomasi
Timeline, we're talking starting deployment in 2028, but we know timelines are a little bit subject to delays and the constellation will operate alongside its you know first broadband constellation, but also alongside Globalstar constellation.
00:09:49
Pablo Tomasi
Apple is mentioned in the release. So we knew that it was like one of the first low hang on for oil low hanging fruit opportunity for Amazon D, having acquired Globalstar since the company already had that partnership and was also invested in by Apple.
00:10:04
Pablo Tomasi
But other thing that caught my attention is that IoT is mentioned. And for me, this is interesting because for all the promises about D2D and the 5G-like experience and blah, blah, blah, and a lot of things that are unlikely going to happen anytime soon, I think that a lot of D2D will be IoT.
00:10:24
Pablo Tomasi
And is that good, is that bad? We know how the IoT market is. So if a lot of D2D will be IoT, there's a lot of you know everything that comes with it in terms of the use cases, the price point, the revenue, so on and so forth.
00:10:43
Pablo Tomasi
But once again, NTN is a hot market right now, so one to watch out for.
The Evolving Role of Analysts vs Influencers
00:10:50
Pablo Tomasi
So now I have no idea how long I've been talking, but let's talk a little bit about the analyst role and how that is changing.
00:10:58
Pablo Tomasi
um And the question is that how is the analyst role changing in the era of influencers? Let's start by saying this. I think that from analyst world perspective, so not personal, but sort of what I get in general, being part of that industry, there is a little bit of stigma. So there more than a little bit, actually.
00:11:20
Pablo Tomasi
um The analyst world does not like influencers. And that's partially because analysts, they do tend to have the assumption of being the only one truly knowing the markets.
00:11:35
Pablo Tomasi
And I strongly disagree with that. I strongly disagree with that perception that other categories, whether like influencers or journalists, are not as knowledgeable as analysts.
00:11:49
Pablo Tomasi
And in fact, there are a lot of people. I think the debate on this versus journalists is a good one, because I know a lot of journalists that have amazing knowledge of the market. So for me, I don't see just because you're categorized as a you know different role, different work. You shouldn't be able to have that knowledge. I think you can possibly use it or hide it. but you know It doesn't matter what you do. You can have like ah a very good knowledge of what is happening, what it is like 5G cloud or whatever. So that brings me to the next point, that the the difference between analysts and influencers, and if you want just throw in journalists as well, is mostly cosmetic.
00:12:31
Pablo Tomasi
ah So it's maybe practical, you can say, how you deliver the knowledge. What tone do you use or what tone can you use? And how broad is the message that you send out?
00:12:45
Pablo Tomasi
How broad is the base receiving it? So those, for me, are the real differences. um You can be whoever you want, to you may know the market a lot or no no or not know the market at all. it It really is not related with with what you do. But obviously, i expect, and think that's pretty obvious, there's going to be significant overlap as we move forward in the years.
00:13:10
Pablo Tomasi
And more than anything, for whole for all the you know a hate that we see between analysts and other categories, I would imagine analysts wanting to become more influencer-like.
00:13:24
Pablo Tomasi
Well, if nothing else because of the money, I would imagine influencers getting more money than analysts, but I don't know. ah And part of that evolution, I think, is already happening.
00:13:37
Pablo Tomasi
And unfortunately, right now, a lot of the sort of analysts turning into influencers, trying to look turn into influencers, is taking the shape of cringy posts on LinkedIn.
00:13:49
Pablo Tomasi
But I think that is the issue there is that I have with link the LinkedIn. LinkedIn is horrible, like honestly, more than anything else. But I think the transformation has really started. So that's the point that I that i want to make.
00:14:03
Pablo Tomasi
and and And I don't think we're gonna we're going to go back. um But again, him thinking out loud, another difference that comes to mind, and this probably is going to be more relevant for, let's say, a vendor or a telco or whoever it is,
00:14:23
Pablo Tomasi
um There is a structural difference between the the analyst and the and influencers because analysts tend to be mostly structured entities, so they're part of established companies.
00:14:37
Pablo Tomasi
While the way that I maybe erroneously think about influencers, I see them more as role players that do not necessarily play by the rules of the analyst world.
00:14:50
Pablo Tomasi
And that, of course, brings pros and cons. It's like how
00:14:58
Pablo Tomasi
how strict you must be in the information that you want to deliver, or how much you care about delivering certain type of of insights. um Yeah, just something to think about. And honestly, i don't really personally know any pure influencers. I only know a couple of hybrids on the slash influencers.
00:15:18
Pablo Tomasi
So maybe I'm a little bit off with my outside interpretation of influencers. So let me know if that's the case. um But I must say, I do follow a couple of pure influencers on some platforms.
00:15:30
Pablo Tomasi
And I think their content is great, like really insightful. Anyways, so kind of closing in this. ah Let me know what you think. Do you need to become more an influencer as an analyst or can you live your life as as an analyst in the age of AI where research has been shaped ah significantly?
00:15:55
Pablo Tomasi
Let's see. Let me know. So I think we're at the end of this pub edition. should actually record it on the road. So couple of recommendations from me, as you know, moving beyond the you know usual analyst talk.
00:16:09
Pablo Tomasi
And these are loosely based on the topic and idea of what intelligence is and where it comes from.
Recommended Sci-Fi Insights and Podcast Conclusion
00:16:20
Pablo Tomasi
up They are quite famous pieces of both book as well as movies. So recommend iRobot and 2001 Space Odyssey to really start thinking about how intelligence is is changing and how has you know how to interpret it.
00:16:41
Pablo Tomasi
So that's it for today's podcast. And as always, thank you very much for listening and stay tuned for the next episode. Have a great day.