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10–Scenario Planning – Business Meditation 6
34 Plays11 months ago
In this sixth business meditation of the Unfolding Thought series, Eric Pratum guides you through Scenario Planning—a strategic tool for exploring possible futures and making better decisions in the face of uncertainty.
Scenario Planning helps you anticipate different ways the future might unfold, so you can prepare for opportunities and mitigate risks. Through this guided exercise, you’ll imagine three distinct scenarios—best-case, realistic, and worst-case—and outline actions to help you navigate each one.
Whether you’re managing a complex challenge, planning for growth, or making a difficult decision, this episode will help you gain clarity, confidence, and control over what lies ahead.
Mentioned in the Episode:
- The three key scenarios: best-case, realistic, and worst-case.
- How Scenario Planning improves decision-making in uncertain situations.
- Using insights from your scenarios to take proactive steps today.
Links:
Start at the beginning of the series:
- On the website: https://unfoldingthought.com/unfolding-thought/
- YouTube Playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL-WyDzPVJzUqWSGGIM0lSxqk4T-TBmsrQ
- Or by searching for Episode 4, titled Unfolding Thought, in your podcast platform of choice.
Visit the Unfolding Thought website: https://unfoldingthought.com/
Learn more about Scenario Planning: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scenario_planning
Join the Conversation:
Have thoughts or questions about this episode? Reach out to Eric at eric@inboundandagile.com or connect on social media.
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Transcript
Introduction to 'Unfolding Thought'
00:00:05
Speaker
Welcome to Unfolding Thought. I'm Erik Prudem. If this is your first time listening to one of these business meditations, I encourage you to go back to the very first episode of this series. There, I explain the purpose and structure of these episodes and how you can get the most out of them. Look up episode four of the Unfolding Thought podcast titled Unfolding Thought in your podcast player, or check the link in the show notes. Thank you for joining
What is Scenario Planning?
00:00:34
Speaker
me.
00:00:36
Speaker
Today, I'm going to guide you through an exercise called scenario planning. This is a strategic tool for exploring possible futures and preparing yourself to navigate uncertainty with confidence. Scenario planning is about anticipating different ways the future might unfold and using that knowledge to make better decisions today.
00:01:01
Speaker
It's especially valuable when you're dealing with complex challenges or big opportunities that come with many unknowns. For this session, I'll act as your guide, asking you questions to help you imagine and explore multiple potential scenarios. As we go, I'll pause to give you time to reflect on your answers.
How to Articulate Scenarios Effectively
00:01:29
Speaker
For this exercise, I recommend that you write your thoughts down. Creating a visual representation of your scenarios will make them clearer and more actionable. If writing is not possible, do your best to describe your scenarios out loud.
00:01:47
Speaker
Getting them out of your head has a big impact on giving them substance. If I move too quickly, feel free to pause the recording to give yourself more time to think. Let's begin.
00:02:03
Speaker
Start by identifying a decision, project, or goal you're working on. It might be
Focusing on Uncertain Decisions or Goals
00:02:11
Speaker
launching a new product, deciding whether to hire new staff or expanding into a new market. What is the decision or situation you want to focus on for this exercise?
00:02:27
Speaker
I find scenario planning helps most when there is a lot of uncertainty or I feel conflicted about which direction to go. So if possible, let's focus on something that is both important to your future and also something for which you have a difficult time predicting what the future will look like.
00:03:10
Speaker
Now, imagine the future five years from today. Picture three distinct scenarios for how things might turn out in relation to this decision or goal. And this
Imagining the Best Case Scenario
00:03:24
Speaker
is where having a piece of paper is going to begin to be most useful for most of us.
00:03:30
Speaker
The first scenario is your best case scenario. Imagine everything goes better than expected. What does success look like in this scenario? What are the specific outcomes?
00:03:47
Speaker
For example, if you're launching a new product, your best case scenario might include rapid adoption, strong customer satisfaction, and hitting your revenue goals ahead of schedule. If you're not using a piece of paper, I recommend you pause the recording in a moment and actually say out loud the answer to this question.
00:04:13
Speaker
Imagine telling me the story of your best case scenario. What
Moderate Outcome Scenarios
00:04:20
Speaker
does your five year best case scenario around this decision, project, or goal look like?
00:04:50
Speaker
Next, imagine a realistic scenario. One where things go moderately well, but not perfectly. What does this look like? For instance, with the product launch example, a realistic scenario might include steady growth, moderate customer satisfaction, and slower than expected revenue, but still meeting your break-even point. What does your realistic scenario look like?
00:05:45
Speaker
Now,
Challenges in the Worst Case Scenario
00:05:46
Speaker
let's consider the worst case scenario. What happens if things go wrong? What are the challenges or setbacks you might face? Using the same example, the worst case scenario might involve poor customer adoption, negative feedback, and the need to pull the product and reassess your approach.
00:06:13
Speaker
for you. What does your worst case scenario look like?
Analyzing Actions with Force Field Analysis
00:06:41
Speaker
Take a moment to reflect on the three scenarios you've created. The best case, the realistic case, and the worst case. Picture them side by side. Now let's look deeper into each one, starting with the best case scenario.
00:07:05
Speaker
What would need to happen to make this scenario a reality? What actions would you need to take? What factors would need to align in your favor? If you've listened to the forced field analysis episode, what forces might drive you toward your five-year decision, project, or goal? And how can you strengthen them?
00:07:54
Speaker
Next, let's focus on the realistic scenario. What actions would help you achieve this outcome? What challenges might you need to overcome? Again, if you've listened to the force field analysis episode, we're considering here, not just the driving forces, but we're also beginning to consider the restraining forces.
00:08:46
Speaker
Finally, think about the worst case scenario. What
Revealing Insights and Proactive Steps
00:08:52
Speaker
could you do today to reduce the likelihood of this scenario happening? Are there risks you could mitigate or safeguards you could put in place?
00:09:24
Speaker
Okay. Look back at the three scenarios you've envisioned. Think about what these scenarios tell you about your current situation and the decisions you need to make today. Are there things you can do today to make your best case scenario more likely to happen?
00:09:48
Speaker
Are there things you can do today to make your worst case scenario less likely to happen?
Significance of Scenario Planning Steps
00:10:13
Speaker
And what will you do today to realize the best case scenario for your five year decision project or goal?
00:10:47
Speaker
Scenario planning is a powerful way to navigate uncertainty. By exploring multiple futures, you can better understand the opportunities and risks you face and take proactive steps to shape the outcomes you want. Here's why each step of this exercise is important.
00:11:10
Speaker
First, identifying a focus area ensures clarity about the decision or goal you're addressing. Second, envisioning multiple scenarios helps you consider a range of possibilities, avoiding overconfidence in any single outcome. Third,
00:11:35
Speaker
Exploring each scenario in detail allows you to align your actions with your best case outcomes, prepare for realistic outcomes, and mitigate worst case risks. Finally, fourth, reflecting on your findings ins ensures your plans are robust and adaptable.
00:12:00
Speaker
Scenario planning is not about predicting the future. It's about
Engagement and Closing Remarks
00:12:06
Speaker
preparing for it. By imagining and analyzing different possibilities, you can make smarter decisions, take more agency, and feel more confident about navigating whatever comes your way.
00:12:24
Speaker
If you'd like to learn more, I've placed links in the show notes. I also encourage you to email me and eric at.com or to reach out to me on social media. Thank you for your dedication to this. I hope you found it valuable and hope you will join me for the next business meditation.