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LAFC present a sort of glass ceiling for Sounders
331 Plays2 months ago
Mark Kastner and Aaron Campeau discuss the latest in a growing string of frustrating results against LAFC, who have now knocked out the Sounders from the last three tournaments in which they've competed.
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Transcript
Introduction & Sponsorship
00:00:02
Speaker
This episode of Nos Arietes is sponsored by Fullpool Wines, a Seattle-based wine retailer and proud sponsor of Nos Arietes since 2011. Fullpool was founded in 2009, is based in Seattle, and is owned and operated by longtime Sounders supporters. They offer the best boutique wines of the world to members of their mailing list, with special focus on their home, Pacific Northwest.
Sounders and Podcast Network
00:00:25
Speaker
Hi, I'm Will Bruin, and I was just recognized as a Seattle Sounders legend.
00:00:30
Speaker
Now I get to do voice reads for the Sounder at Heart Podcast Network.
00:01:12
Speaker
This is a tight This is a tight
00:01:30
Speaker
We're seeing some of the hardwood commentary that we didn't take seriously.
Sounders vs LAFC: Game Analysis
00:01:42
Speaker
Welcome to another edition of Nosadietes, sponsored by Focal Wines and Sounder at Heart subscribers, just like you. Jeremiah is out today, so you're stuck with me, Aaron Campo. Today I'm joined by my good friend and yours, Mark Kastner, to talk about the huge bummer that was the Sounders 1-0 loss to LAFC in the US Open Cup semi-final, as well as some other hopefully less depressing stuff. Mark, how's it going today? About as good as it can be after losing to LAFC again, which just kind of feels like
00:02:12
Speaker
Uh, happens just like every month now. So yeah, it's been what, like three of the last six games we've lost to the LAFC. I think right before the week, right before week's cup, it getting knocked out of week's cup and then a week later. So yeah. Yeah. Um, that's now 10, 10 in a row, uh, that we have not beaten LAFC for losses in a row. Um.
00:02:37
Speaker
It definitely feels like a hex at this point to me, I think. It doesn't feel... LAFC is better, right? I don't want to say that the sounders are as good of a team as LAFC. They're clearly not. I think there's the S tier of MLS, and that's LAFC in Columbus. And then there's the A tier.
00:03:00
Speaker
We'll get into this later. I'm increasingly convinced the sounders are in that A tier, but I think there's a pretty big gap. The Galaxy may be also in the S tier, but it does feel more than that. It doesn't just feel like the talent gap anymore. And I think this game was a really good example of that.
00:03:19
Speaker
Kept it a lot closer than they have in the last couple. Of course, those were both 3-0 losses. This was a lot more like, I think, the early, the first game against LAFC this season, where it was very, very close. And just, you know, one goal, the difference, the playoff game last year, right? Another example of that kind of game. I thought, you know, that the things that the Sounders did were what you have to do to beat a team like LAFC if you're not a more talented team.
00:03:45
Speaker
And the Sounders are not very few teams in MLS or even in the I think the conversation for being more talented than LAFC, but they just could not get the goal in the end. LAFC did get the goal in the end, although whether or not they should have had the opportunity to get the goal, I guess is open into interpretation. And I wanted to get your thought on that penalty call for me. I think it's a very, very soft call.
00:04:07
Speaker
But I think the level of outrage has maybe been a little bit out of proportion. You can see it, for sure, contact one hand. I'm fairly convinced it contacted Pedro de la Vega's left arm, which was not pulled into his body. I'd rather not not be called, but I think we've seen that penalty given plenty of times. And I think once it's given on the field, it's difficult to overturn it. But I wanted to get your take on that.
00:04:33
Speaker
Yeah, I think one thing to keep in mind here is this game was
Controversial Refereeing Decisions
00:04:36
Speaker
happening effectively in a parking lot in Tukwila, and the camera angles were strange. I think this is the first game I've ever seen at Starfire, first sounders game I've ever watched at Starfire that had those kind of reverse camera angles. Yeah. And if you look at the penalty call,
00:04:58
Speaker
the referee has a much better position than a camera behind the goal, which is effectively the slow-mo clip that everybody has seen via the replay. And then I believe a handful of people have tweeted it out or posted it elsewhere on Reddit and whatnot. You know, I'm not really
00:05:19
Speaker
I don't think this referee deserved any benefit of the doubt, but you can see the ball change direction after it goes off of Pedro de la Vega. And then it also hits Alex with Alan's hand. And one thing to keep in mind for everybody out there, there are, if you're a fan of a European team, let's say you watch the Premier League or the Bundesliga on the weekend,
00:05:46
Speaker
they're under a new set of handball rules for their new season than the existing MLS season. So those rules are much stricter currently. I think, you know, every blog, I know like NBC did a big thing like when the Premier League was starting talking about the new rules and stuff.
Tactical Challenges Against LAFC
00:06:05
Speaker
I think people just think that there's like those just like automatically get adopted into MLS, but MLS has
00:06:14
Speaker
three months left in their season under an old set of rules. Yeah. With that said, I thought it was like, incredibly harsh, but pretty much to the letter of the law, I can't tell if it doesn't go off of his left hand. It definitely hits his right arm below, you know, below the elbow or at the elbow and
00:06:40
Speaker
It changes direction. He's jumping, he's turning away, he's very close. Again, I think it's harsh. But it's like with the camera angles that the broadcast had, and I'm sure the camera angles that VAR had, I have a hard time seeing how that gets overturned. With that said, I'm not going to give the referee any more benefit of the doubt.
00:07:07
Speaker
Yeah, I think that's fair. I mean, I think it was a very frustrating and uneven performance. I don't understand how a referee with that level of experiences is refereeing a semifinal in the Open Cup. I feel like when you get to this stage in the tournament, it should be MLS level referees all the way and ideally pretty experienced ones. But I think that Kevin's thought was the VAR. Right. I know soundness bands aren't
00:07:36
Speaker
huge fans of Kevin Stock, but he's referee to LAFC Seattle games before it. It would make sense if he was the center referee. Sorry, I didn't interrupt you. No, no, that's a great point. I mean, it's the kind of thing where, ideally, the sounders are not in a situation where
00:07:57
Speaker
a call is the difference, right? Like ideally they're ahead by a goal or two in every game. So it doesn't matter. Um, but that's just not the reality we're in. You know, LAFC is a really good team. They're, they're going to, they're, they're hard to beat by enough that, that the margins aren't going to be thin. And, um, it's a very frustrating way to lose this game because it really did feel like.
00:08:20
Speaker
a different kind of LAFC Sounders game than the last couple especially. And so to lose it on the penalty call and then the Jordan Morris goal that was called back a bit later, which I think was in hindsight at the time, I did not think there was any way in the world he was offside. In hindsight, I think it's pretty clear he was offside by a decent portion, but still a gut punch, right? The balls in the net.
00:08:46
Speaker
that always hurts. The ball's in the net and it's not like a very obvious offside in the moment. That always hurts, especially late in the game. So it just felt, I think, uniquely painful in this series of struggles against LAFC because it's either been
00:09:05
Speaker
It's just never felt close with them, I guess. It's the last couple of games have obviously been super lopsided. The Sounders just haven't really felt close to scoring and the ones that were a little closer on the scoreboard. To have that double whammy of the referee puts a goal on the board as a perception, I don't necessarily believe that's the case, but then to have that be the perception and then also the perception of the referee's safe goal off the board, it hurts pretty bad.
00:09:36
Speaker
I do want to talk about the tactical approach to this game that the Sounders took because I think it's an interesting discussion. A lot of the criticism that I've seen in past losses to LAFC and that I saw again last night was a tendency to blame Brian Schmetzer and blame the tactics and say, you know, we keep trying to do the same things against LAFC and it's just not working.
00:09:58
Speaker
And I don't think that that's true at all. I think that for a decent period of time, the Sounders were trying to play their game against LAFC, and it was not working.
00:10:10
Speaker
And I think that they have adjusted that in the last few games, especially, you know, in the League's Cup game, I thought that they were trying to play their own game, but their own game has shifted from that very possession heavy approach that they've kind of taken historically to what they've been doing more recently, which is a little bit more counter pressing.
00:10:30
Speaker
Um, a little bit less emphasis on possession. Um, you know, trying to win position, uh, when possession higher up the pitch. Uh, and so that was kind of the first time I'd seen them play that way against LFC. Obviously that didn't work. Uh, I thought in the open cup game, it was a little bit of that, but also just trying to play very direct. We saw a lot of long balls, a lot of attempts to play Jordan Morrison behind.
00:10:53
Speaker
They seeded possession for a lot of this game, which is what I think you have to do to LAFC. LAFC does not want the ball. They want you to have possession. That is their whole thing is you go ahead and take the ball. We'll get it 20% of the time, but when we get it, there's a good chance we're going to score.
00:11:10
Speaker
And so I think when teams want to do that, and they're effective at doing that, and they have a track record of being able to do that, what the Sounders did last night was the right approach. And it wasn't enough in the end. But I don't know, to me, I think that the Sounders are trying different things against LAFC now. I don't recall ever seeing them play this direct, not ever, I'm sure they played this direct before, but
00:11:34
Speaker
In a game at home, especially, it was, I think, uncharacteristically direct an attack. But I wanted to get your take on that to see if my perception is maybe just confirmation bias of some kind, or if you think that there really was a different approach in this game. And also, if there's anything the sounders can do tactically to counteract this LAFC team, that's not going to play into their hands.
00:12:03
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, it was different than every other game against LAFC, at least for the past two seasons. Oddly enough, I felt like in the first 20 minutes of the game, aside from like chance creation, it felt really similar to the 2019 Western Conference Final, where you had a Sounders team that was like, at least perceived to be heavily overmatched, you know, looking back,
00:12:30
Speaker
that Sounders team and that LAFC team are probably more level than these two current teams are. However, it was still, you know, this like kind of outsized proportion thing. And I think there was just kind of a, there was an omission from Spencer before the game when Apple TV interviewed him that things were going to be different. And I could probably count on
00:12:58
Speaker
less than two hands the times that he's ever like been that sort of like outspoken about changing the way that the sounders play because I think there is this sort of um
00:13:14
Speaker
elephant in the room, I guess that LAFC is just so much better than the Sounders and it's kind of a win at whatever cost. You kind of get I guess the benefit of that in a semi final of a knockout competition. Like you don't have to do like you're not tied to any sort of like
00:13:35
Speaker
past or future, it is literally just the present. But with kind of the added context of like losing to LAFC 10 days ago, all of that, it was pretty interesting, you know, I thought like, in particular, it was a little bit more kind of like, old school, like use Morris as a holdup man. Yeah.
00:14:00
Speaker
and or like try to play him over the top like one of the other whereas in the past let's say six weeks when the Sounders had been playing well there was a lot more kind of combination with the midfield and then try to get Morris the ball either like out on the left wing or in the box. Yeah and I was I was cool with that you know I don't think outside of the offside chance that
00:14:23
Speaker
literally doesn't count. I don't really think they created a whole bunch, but it was more about kind of like having the opportunity to create, which is what they've not had against LAFC all season in 10 games. They haven't had the opportunity to create anything because they go down early, you know, they shoot themselves in the foot. LAFC just plays them off the park. You know, this felt a lot more even.
00:14:53
Speaker
for better or worse. Yeah. LAFC is, I think, a uniquely terrible mashup for the Sounders. And there's a lot of focus on, and rightfully so, on Denny Belonga, on their attack, on the amount of money they are willing to commit to attacking players.
00:15:11
Speaker
And that's all true. They do have a really good attack. They have good attacking players. They score a decent number of goals. But LAFC, I think, has the second or third best defense in the league in terms of goals conceded. They have really, really good defenders. They have really good center backs. They're really hard to score against and I think are just generally bad for the Sounders and the way the Sounders want to play. You know, I think Jordan Morris is usually an adequate holdup guy.
00:15:40
Speaker
And I, it was not a strength of his game last night because I just, he's a big, strong dude, but he is not as big and strong as those LAFC center packs. Yeah. And he just had nobody to play off of because, because of the size of the field, let's say the back nine outfield players for the Sounders were so compact to try to get the ball. It was literally just kind of like hoof it up to Morris and.
00:16:09
Speaker
see if he can hold on it for two seconds until Paul Rothrock can get close enough to him. And when you're playing against three really strong, it's harder to be stronger than Jordan Morris. And I don't think it's outlandish to say, regardless of who he matches up across the three center backs against L.E.F.C., they just kind of dominated him strength-wise.
00:16:33
Speaker
Yeah, it's a tough job to be asked to do for anybody, I think. But the way the Sounders tend to play, Jordan doesn't have to do a lot of that back to goal type of stuff. He's a really good at combination play.
Talent Disparity: Sounders vs LAFC
00:16:46
Speaker
His approach to hold up play reminds me a lot of the way Oba Martins...
00:16:50
Speaker
What about doing hold up play, which was not to get into physical battles with center backs necessarily, but to dribble away, find outlets, things like that to try to start the break. And I think in 99% of games, the Sounders play, that's great. That's what you want your center forward doing. I think in this game, the hope was that, like you said, maybe he'd be able to do a little bit more with the ball and hold up.
00:17:16
Speaker
And that's just, that's, that's a big ask. Um, there are definitely center forwards and MLS that can do that, but they're not as good at the other stuff as Jordan Morris. So I don't want to be too, too harsh on him because it certainly wasn't, I don't think Jordan Morris problem, um, the lack of opportunities, but, um, but I think, I guess that's kind of what I'm getting at, right? Is that I look at this roster and I look at ways you can set them up to try to solve LAFC and.
00:17:47
Speaker
Columbus has got LAFC figured out, but Columbus has players that play a style that LAFC struggles to deal with. I think the Sounders were kind of sort of trying to do something similar to what Columbus does. They just don't have the same kinds of players and they don't have the guys to fill the roles that Columbus does. And I think that that was a big part of it. I think what the Sounders, the best they can kind of hope for at this point is keep the game close and hope you get a late goal. Hope maybe you get a penalty.
00:18:17
Speaker
And LAFC is good and disciplined, and they're just a veteran team, and that's a tough ask. But I think that, unfortunately, right now, with this collection of talent, that Open Cup game is about as good as you can hope for against LAFC. I don't think we're going to go in there and boss them around, barring any sort of unforeseen kind of stuff.
00:18:36
Speaker
And that's just, you know, that's disheartening because they're the team that the Sounders very clearly need to leapfrog. And it's hard to see them doing it with this collection of talent. It's hard to see them doing it, you know, going into LA and the playoffs and getting a win. Yeah, and also there was like two pretty heavy handicaps that LAFC was experiencing. Yes.
00:19:02
Speaker
in the Home Cup, one, they never played at Starfire before. That was the Sounders first regulation loss at Starfire in MLS era, right? And two, they had kind of like a heartbreaking loss on Sunday night against Columbus. I know you and I don't give a shit about Week's Cup, but it seems like at least on some level,
00:19:32
Speaker
the people in MOS players, coaches, care, and to lose in the 90th minute.
00:19:39
Speaker
90-second minute and then have another goal two minutes after that. That's a pretty tough way to lose. It's not like they were beat by the 60th minute and they just cruise to the end. To a team that I think increasingly taking on the role for LAFC that LAFC has for the Sounders. Yeah. Then that game was in Columbus, so they were further away from
00:20:07
Speaker
They had more travel, they had to go back to LA and then come up to that Seattle play in one of the weirder stadiums in American soccer history. There's literally a picture floating around on the internet of Denny Belongo peeing on a fence outside of their locker room. It is that. If the sounders couldn't beat them under those conditions,
00:20:37
Speaker
with everything that they did to kind of concede that they have to play as like an underdog in this situation. Yeah. It is tough for me. It's the simple question, if not now, when? Yeah, absolutely.
00:21:06
Speaker
And that's not to say that, you know, I'm hopeless about the Sounders beating LAFC, but I can usually talk myself into thinking that the Sounders have a puncher's chance against anyone, and I just need to see them actually do it against LAFC before I can believe that. And it's frustrating. I mean, it kind of feels like the early days, you know, the 2009 to 2014 stretch with the Galaxy,
00:21:32
Speaker
But even during that time when the Galaxy were winning the trophies and the Galaxy were clearly the gold standard of MLS and it was frustrating that the Sounders couldn't get over that hump, the Sounders beat them occasionally. They won the supporter shield in 2014. They ended up losing in the playoffs to them, which sort of took away a little bit of that shine, but they were able to hang with them. It didn't feel like they were playing a different sport or on a totally different planet. And it does kind of feel like that with LAFC sometimes.
00:22:02
Speaker
I want to use this as an opportunity to transition because I'm tired of talking about LAFC. Because I think it's important to remember that there are 27 other teams in MLS. And there are two or three that I'm convinced the Sounders are worse than. And that's not where I want to be. I don't think it's where anybody wants to be.
Sounders' League Standing & Potential
00:22:24
Speaker
want and expect the Sounders to be in the mix for being the best in the league. But I think that you can still have a lot of fun with a team like the Sounders are right now. And before the LAFC loss, the Sounders returned to league play. They won 3-2 away against Minnesota United. I believe you were there. I saw you on the TV. That was a nice little treat for me. I was. I was there. Yeah. And that moved the Sounders into fifth place.
00:22:48
Speaker
They're one point behind Colorado and fourth, four points behind RSL and third. I think more importantly, for at least for the point I'm trying to make, since April 1st, the sounders are third in the Western Conference, two points behind the Galaxy and LFC sounders have 38, Galaxy and LFC have 40. Since April 29th, which was the day before the one in Philly,
00:23:11
Speaker
And that, I think in hindsight, is really the turning point of the season. The Sounders are second best in the West and are behind the Galaxy, only on goal difference. Past 17 games, Sounders are at a two points per game pace. That's extremely good. And they had big wins in the League Cup over the Galaxy and Pumas. I think people kind of have undersold that Galaxy win because they're so fixated, understandably so, on LAFC.
00:23:38
Speaker
They stomped the galaxy and the galaxy are an extremely good team. Puma's also a good team. So let's put aside LAFC. The Sounders do appear to be a really good to mentalize team, right? Yeah, I would say I think there's five teams that are comfortably like way, way better than them. Yeah.
00:24:02
Speaker
to the listeners, you may hear my dog in the background. I apologize for that. I think there's five teams that are comfortably in like the top one or two tiers between how you ever want to split that out. Two teams in the Eastern Conference, there's three teams in the West. But as far as that goes, I don't think people like fully understand how
00:24:31
Speaker
I guess mediocre, the rest of MLS. And I'm not, you know, I've been pretty vocal about just how I feel about this team this season. I get, I get it all, you know, I fully understand the biggest naysayers and I kind of fully get the people that are most positive about this team. But you don't have to be
00:24:59
Speaker
you don't always have to be the best team. You rarely, actually, you rarely do have to be the best team to win MLS Cup. You know, they're obviously not gonna win supporter shield, which is whatever. However, I think like when I start looking around at other MLS teams, the thing that really gives me like pause and worry is you have to score goals to win games. And the Sounders do not score enough, in my opinion,
00:25:29
Speaker
to be like comfortably better than a lot of people around them. I think they can probably finish third in the West, you know, let's say home playoff game. But they're they've already through 26 games in league play has scored 13 fewer goals than Colorado.
00:25:53
Speaker
14 fewer goals than Real Assault Lake. Those are not necessarily like standard bearers of like attacking soccer. I know RSL has actually been really good this year because they have probably the best number nine in the league or one of the three best number nines in the league in Chicha Arango when he's not getting mysteriously suspended.
00:26:20
Speaker
But even outside of that, you know, they have like dynamic wingers that can score goals. They score goals from set pieces and so on and so forth. They've played two more league games than LAFC. I'm sorry. I know you wanted to stop talking about LAFC, but they've played two more games than LAFC has played and LAFC still has outscored them by 11 goals and they have a better defense.
Sounders' Defensive Strength
00:26:43
Speaker
So all that to say, like I'm
00:26:49
Speaker
really like I don't think Spencer's got enough credit this year for kind of like what last night I called it like a mirror like he's basically worked a miracle given the talent on the roster and sort of the like external forces that go into like everybody's sort of malaise yeah but there's still a team that is capable of
00:27:15
Speaker
creating pretty special moments this season, I think. They were in a semifinal of the Open Cup. That's what we're upset about. They are in a decent position in the Western Conference. Their last league game, they faced a lot of adversity against a team that
00:27:40
Speaker
I would say is probably the hardest team to scout in MLS right now because they made six signings this summer and two of them are DPs since the last time they played. Yeah, maybe they're just not very good and that's like a thing, but they still won against Minnesota.
00:28:00
Speaker
But I just kind of start wondering, they haven't beaten anybody ahead of them this season. Not in MLS. They did curb sunt the galaxy, but League's Cup is a... But also the galaxy were kind of... They advanced and League's Cup kind of like ass backwards.
00:28:23
Speaker
So who knows that they like even really sort of cared, but putting that all aside, it is kind of like, they're good, they're good. They're probably good enough, but I'm still, I have a lot of skepticism, I suppose. I don't know if this is where you wanted the conversation to go. No, I mean, I think you're right. I'm a little more optimistic, I think, about the team, but I think that the sounders
00:28:51
Speaker
The Sounders are weird in that I think they actually are capable of scoring a ton of goals. I don't think they're capable. They haven't figured out how to do it consistently. They haven't figured out how to be a team. Nobody scores three goals every game, right? But they haven't figured out how to be a team who look like they can score two or three goals every night. They have nights where they look like they can score three or four and do, and they have nights where they do not look like they are going to score at all.
00:29:15
Speaker
Um, I feel like though they're becoming more consistent and I think to, to kind of circle back around to something you said about Brian Schmetzer and, and Miracle working, I think that the fact that he has managed to sort of rebuild the airplane while it was being flown completely changed the team's tactical approach, their way of, of playing, um, you know, to.
00:29:40
Speaker
to deal with all the injuries they had to sort of deal with, I think, coming into the season. He expected to have Pedro de la Vega. He's barely had him at all. I think the team was sort of built with the expectation that they would have Pedro de la Vega. He hasn't had him at all, so he's kind of had to figure other things out. And it's been bumpy at times, but I think this version of the Sounders that we've been seeing over the past few months is the best possible version of this team. I think it's the best personnel.
00:30:08
Speaker
And, you know, I think there are reasons to be optimistic because I think defensively it's going to be hard for anybody that's not at L.A.F.C. at least to beat them soundly. I think they're going to be in pretty much every game. It's just whether or not they can consistently attack that I think is going to be the story. I think the best case scenario for the Sounders is somehow
00:30:32
Speaker
LAFC and the Galaxy end up playing in the playoffs before the Sounders meet them and the Galaxy win. Because I think the Sounders can beat the Galaxy. I feel they've looked really good against them in every game this year, even though they only have a draw in league play. And I don't see any possible way that happens, given the state of the table. But you never know. Maybe there will be a bus accident or something. I don't know. But hopefully not. But yeah, I think you're right to be skeptical.
00:31:02
Speaker
That said, there are eight games left in the season, and a lot of them look pretty winnable, I think. Two against Portland, those are always tough games, home or away. Columbus away is not writing that off, but I'm writing that off.
Future Matches & Playoff Hopes
00:31:23
Speaker
It's also a weirdly favorable, like, the sounders have had favorable results against Columbus. They have, yeah. Which is funny. Yeah, I mean, Columbus is so good that I
00:31:42
Speaker
I don't feel great about it, but you're right. I mean, I think the Sounders match up pretty well against them, weirdly. It's weird because there's so many similarities between LAFC and Columbus and sort of their tactical approaches, but I feel like the Sounders actually match up well against Columbus and not as well against LAFC. It's a weird one. I'll have to interrogate that thought further, I guess, before the Columbus game. They also play Colorado away.
00:32:05
Speaker
I remain a Colorado skeptic, but, you know, it's a team that is as of now ahead of them in the table playing away who has a very good home record. So it's a place where the Sounders have. I was going to say they struggled, but actually, I'm not sure that they have. I probably should look that up. Oh, well, at any rate.
00:32:23
Speaker
I think there's a good chance the Sounders can rack up a fair number of points. If they maintain their two points per game run, their form that they've been on over the last 17 games, which is, you know, that's a tall order. That's a very good clip. But if they do that, they end up with 56 points, which would be the most they've had since 2021, I believe.
00:32:47
Speaker
It's hard to consider that we could be in this place. I think you said the Sounders had a decent chance ending up in third. I tend to agree. I think that's achievable. RSL is good, but they also have lost some guys. They've cooled off a little bit. And even before the Sounders had fully figured them out, they were able to give them a pretty decent game at home.
00:33:14
Speaker
RSL was missing some guys, but you know, uh, I think the Sounders can catch, catch them, I guess is what I'm saying. And I don't know. It's for me, if they end up in third place, they go to USOC semi-final, they advance in the playoffs, you know, at least they won one, one of the playoff rounds. Um, I feel like that's, it's hard to characterize that as a bad season. I don't know. What do you think?
00:33:45
Speaker
Yeah, I think like the reality starts setting in. And yeah, like you especially given the start. Yeah, it is like the textbook good season. Yeah. And there's like really no way to be like, it's not. But I think for the most part, it's not even necessarily like
00:34:16
Speaker
the points on the board that people are in general annoyed with. So I don't know what another just like good season is because I had a good season last season. And then got bounced in the playoffs by LAFC in a game that, again, they had a chance to win and they didn't. And so is that like,
00:34:40
Speaker
I think people just think that that's the fate that is ahead of them in a few months. Right. Which, look. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Oh, go ahead. Sorry. I was just gonna say, like, yeah, like, I tend to be on the, like, more optimistic side about
00:35:08
Speaker
like this roster, like I've been a proponent of Jordan Morris playing as a nine for a long time. He finally is, he's producing at like a very elite level at a number nine. I've been a very kind of like defensive Albert Rusnak supporter. He is like, like could break the Sounders assist record and for a single season all competitions, you could even break it theoretically in just the MLS right your season.
00:35:39
Speaker
Like I, I think they're a good team. I think they're going to end up having a points total of a good season. I don't. The way, the way that this season is going mirrors last season so much that it's like super eerie, like not like exactly, but think about they got bounced from leaks cup last year. They come out of leaks cup without having played in five weeks. They have a pretty like.
00:36:10
Speaker
bland performance at home against Atlanta and people are like. Freaking out and then they kind of just put together a really solid. I don't know if they were unbeaten or like had two losses in 12 or something like that, but they just put together a really solid run to get into the playoffs. Struggled against Dallas, but got past them. It was Dallas right last year. Yeah.
00:36:36
Speaker
And then, yeah, the Grim Reaper came to town. But I just think it's going to be the same exact thing.
00:36:46
Speaker
unless somebody takes care of the Grim Reaper for them. Right. Which, yeah, just doesn't, I don't know. I know that other teams do not struggle with all the FC as much as the Sounders do, so it's not like it's out of the question, but it just feels unlikely to me. But I think I'm glad you mentioned all that, because to me, it's the difference between
00:37:10
Speaker
If you're being analytical and you're saying, what does a good season look like? What constitutes a good season? If I'm Adrian Hanauer and I'm doing Brian Schmetzer's season ending one-on-one and I have all my KPIs and I say, oh, 56 points, third place in the West, dealt with all these injuries, got the team playing really well down the stretch, you did a great job. I think people that analyze the league would say that's a good season.
00:37:38
Speaker
And I think we both agreed that on paper, that's a good season. But it doesn't, it just, I think for so many people, it doesn't feel good, right? Because there's not a lot of hope of beating LAFC in the playoffs. And I think Sounders fans want trophies. There's, you know, if you can't get past LAFC, there's most likely not gonna be a trophy this year. Even though you got deep in the open cup and all that,
00:38:06
Speaker
And I don't know how to square the circle, I guess,
Roster Strategies: Sounders vs LAFC
00:38:10
Speaker
right? Because it's, I don't think there's, it's not hard to understand why that feels like an unsatisfying season. I just think it's one of the ways in which the Sounders are victims of their own success because they set the bar so high that
00:38:24
Speaker
sort of the bar for what constitutes a successful season is not something that any team in MLS I think can consistently reach. And that consistency has been great for the Sounders, but it's also been kind of their Achilles heel when times haven't been so great because
00:38:44
Speaker
You know, Columbus has had long periods of time where they were God awful. LAFC has missed the playoffs. The galaxy had years in the wilderness after, you know, being dominant for so long. DC United used to be the standard bearer and they are total dog shit and have been for years. So this up and down fluctuation is normal in MLS. It's normal in North American sports. Generally, the sounder's fluctuation is across a much narrower band.
00:39:14
Speaker
But when you set that expectation, you know, a third place finish, 56 points, and getting bounced in the playoffs by the team that looks like the standard bearer in the Western Conference just doesn't feel satisfying. And I'm not arguing that it should. It's just a difficult position that I think, you know, that the team has to deal with being in. Yeah, and I think that I can really only speak for myself, but I have a feeling a lot of people might agree with me on this.
00:39:41
Speaker
They also just haven't done anything to really throw a variable into the equation. Like, okay, Pedro de la Vega is a good player who has been injured. And if he was healthy, maybe we'd be having a different conversation. But he's the only variable that's changed in the last two years. Yes. Which is like, like, it's not
00:40:10
Speaker
It's not a way to sustain success. It's a way to hope success continues, is to put minimal resource towards your roster construction.
00:40:23
Speaker
Since the last time the Sounders played L.A.F.C. in the league, I should say, not literally the last time because they played 10 days ago. So L.A.F.C. beats the Sounders right before week's cup in July, and then they have the U.S. Open Cup final, or semi-final, which just kind of put week's cup on the other side.
00:40:45
Speaker
LAFC, in between that time, signed a player from a team that was in the Premier League last year and a World Cup winner. Yeah. And like both of those guys may or may not be starters for them. Right. Which is kind of like crazy.
00:41:02
Speaker
Sure. Maybe the reality that the fans need to accept is they're not at the big boy spending table anymore. But Kai Kamara started for LAFC last night and looked great. He didn't have a team this offseason. The sounders could have had Kai Kamara instead of Danny Mizoski.
00:41:28
Speaker
Maybe. I think there's a good chance that Kai Kamara was only going to go play somewhere where he felt pretty confident he was going to win an MLS Cup. But I get your point for sure. But again, like the Sounders used to be positioned to sign that type of player, like the like the kind of famous basketball veteran minimum to win a ring type of game. Yeah. They used to sign those guys because they were positioned to do that.
00:41:56
Speaker
And the more that they have doubled and tripled and quadrupled down on the state of this roster being objectively fine, like they're not a bad team. Like you said, DC United is in third to last place, but they have a 15 goal a year goal scorer who makes more money than anybody else at the Sounders. But just this kind of like,
00:42:22
Speaker
there's, there's, there's no variable being added to the equation, aside from like, one, there's just nothing kind of like, be like, Hey, what's gonna be different, other than just kind of hoping that your coach, who is probably one of the five best coaches to ever coach in this league, didn't like
00:42:46
Speaker
work magic. Yeah. And he's he gets quite close to doing it. I mean, it's it's Yeah, but the problem with that is like, you can only get close so many times before you just go like literally insane. And I'm a little worried that it's just like, are we kind of wasting? He's not getting any younger. Brian Spencer is not getting any younger. I had doubts, what's in the middle of last season, and even earlier this season.
00:43:16
Speaker
about kind of his long-term future in this role. I think this season, he should probably win Coach of the Year, regardless of what happens, just because of like the state of things, but that's not how that award works. They just give it to- Whoever has the most points or whatever. Yeah, you know, like Steve Tranodolo or Tata Martina will get it because either one of those teams will win this water shield, and that's just how it works. But it's kind of like,
00:43:43
Speaker
I've made the point on shows before that when you don't add variables through your roster, your roster gets stale and gets worse. But I also think that by not doing that in the last couple of years, or doing it so sporadically, it doesn't make a difference, that you've forced Brian Spencer to spend
00:44:06
Speaker
X amount more of energy to kind of burn the candle at both ends. And I wonder if his sort of like ability to do this shortens because of how much effort he has to spend to try to turn water into wine. Thank you for listening to the Sound Rithart podcast network, which now includes no sunny at this lobbing scorchers and the cooler guild.
00:44:35
Speaker
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00:45:00
Speaker
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00:45:18
Speaker
Yeah, and being put into positions in two consecutive years where you've got club legends who are not producing at that level and who should not be starting and having to manage their egos and having to get them to buy into what you're asking them to do.
00:45:35
Speaker
And, you know, Nico Lodera was not happy about his role last year. Raul Rodriguez is not happy about his role this year. But they both went out and played hard and did what they were asked to do. And I think that's a credit to Schmetzer's man management ability. But in general, I think you're 100% right that the staleness of the roster is, I think, a bigger problem that I really
00:46:02
Speaker
understood, uh, earlier in the season, you know, where, where, um, there were complaints about the lack of, of signings in the off season. And, and I think as the season's gone on and it's been this consistent, you know, topic of conversation, that's the thing that's kind of come out that people have sort of started realizing is that it's not just the lack of signings. It's the fact that it's the same guys.
00:46:30
Speaker
doing the same stuff in slightly different ways, right? But there's no...
00:46:38
Speaker
There's nothing, there's no unknown. There's no, it's like, I wonder what this guy who I'm not familiar with is going to do. Unknown is Paul Rothrock, which is great. Yeah. But LAFC's unknown was Louis, again, you know, in the open cup, the unknown was Louis O'Brien, who came from Nottingham Forest. Yeah. And I think was really good.
00:47:02
Speaker
Yeah. And I think that the thing that we tend to talk about when we talk about the sounder's lack of signings and movement is a lack of willingness to invest. And I think that that is a legitimate problem. And we've talked about this on this show plenty of times. But I do think that one of the things that separates LAFC and the sounders is not that LAFC is spending like crazy. Their net transfer spend is not that crazy.
00:47:29
Speaker
It's that they are willing to move players on. They're willing to shake up the roster. They're willing to sell good players. They're willing to trade good players. And they have roster movement to try to maximize the talent on the team and try to find the best fits. And it seems like, you know, when you go down the roster for the Sounders, player by player,
00:47:51
Speaker
There aren't that many of them where I'm like, this isn't a good player that I don't want on a team in a vacuum. There really aren't that many. This team has a lot of good veteran players who aren't making crazy money, who I think are objectively decent value, who you would want on a team.
00:48:10
Speaker
They've all been here since I was like 25 years old, and there's no competition seemingly. I think that there's plenty of competition and training in the sense that they're playing hard, and I think they have to have that mentality to be successful on the Bryan Spencer team. But there aren't a lot of guys looking over their shoulder. People aren't brought in to try to push the current starters.
00:48:36
Speaker
And I think it's just the stagnation thing. And I think you hit the nail on the head with we know what they're gonna do because we've seen it. We've seen what this team does. They are kind of flat track bullies, unfortunately. They beat up on the teams below them. They can occasionally hang with the elite teams, but they're probably gonna lose to LAFC in the playoffs.
00:49:06
Speaker
you know, that's not a bad way for a season to end, again, in a vacuum. But for this team, with this collection of players, with three summer windows without a signing, it doesn't feel great. Yeah. And, like, I think, was it somebody at Senator Hart, like, did the math of, like, the
00:49:33
Speaker
LAFC's opening day roster that played in Seattle in 2018 versus the Seattle roster from that same game. It's something like six of the soundest starters are still the same, and none of the starters for LAFC are the same. And okay, expansion team, whatever, blah, blah, blah, blah. But it's just like,
00:49:57
Speaker
you, you said LAFC is not afraid to kind of like, shake it up. And when you're when you're a team willing to take risks, like they are like, yeah, they, they're a team in LA, they can attract the kind of twilight of Hugo Ruiz's career. But when you make a move like that, like when you think you can upgrade 10% when you're starting goalkeeper, you can trade
00:50:23
Speaker
Maxine Shapiro or Jonathan McCarthy to other teams, get some allocation money in the bank and just start moving stuff around. And then you got to start taking risks on players like Maxine Chanel, who was like one of the worst defenders I've ever seen at NYC FC, but now he's like decent. So it's just this like,
00:50:49
Speaker
There's just such a risk adverse approach to the way that the Sounders build their roster. That when you have guys flame out, like Leo Chu, who I don't know if he'll ever play again. It really doesn't seem like it. Or if you have players that get just a little bit worse than they used to be, like maybe six guys on the Sounders rosters right now.
00:51:14
Speaker
it all has a collective effect that brings everything down so much. When LAFC or even like Columbus or pretty much every other team in the league at this point, including the bad ones, are willing to just like be like, hey, we think we can get a guy that's 10% better than what we already have. Yeah. Or if he's not, we have two guys that can do things for this team. And the Sounders have
00:51:45
Speaker
six guys that can do something for this team. Seven maybe and then it's like where you got to hope and pray that like I don't think it is really appreciated. Like one example of this is
00:52:01
Speaker
like trusting Obed Vargas to be your starting midfielder for the entire season. It is like actually incredible that a player this young has been this good and this consistent. Because that like player development isn't linear. And it's just kind of like, oh, he's a nailed on starter now. And we might sell him for seven, $8 million this offseason. And that's awesome. But it's like,
00:52:28
Speaker
That doesn't really happen. You don't have a young player like that just be this consistently good and not have to worry about it. Yeah, it's not something you can depend on. Yeah. And yeah, I know like central midfielder is probably the position that the Sounders are the most talked at.
00:52:47
Speaker
Christian Rabon can slide back there or Joshua Tenzio can play. But it's just kind of like, well, now Obed's this good and there's just nobody that's going to take his job. And it's like... Right. And I think, I guess that's kind of what I'm getting at is that everyone in the Sounders midfield is good, right? Joao Paulo is a good player. Yeah.
00:53:10
Speaker
Increasingly less so. I think it's fair to say he's not the player he was and it feels like he's less the player he was. He always looks like he's just about to die. He does. Yeah, it's not great. I'm sure he's in better shape than, you know.
00:53:27
Speaker
anybody I've ever met, but it does look like he's having trouble the last few minutes of his shift.
Player Development & Management
00:53:34
Speaker
Obed Vargas is a great player, and I think the kind of player that you do kind of have to play if you want your academy to be part of your revenue streams, which the Sounders clearly do, and they should. Christian Roldan's a great player. Josh Tenzio, great player.
00:53:56
Speaker
They're all good players. There are better players than them out there, and it doesn't feel like there's any impetus to go find that better player, to say if we can improve by 10, 15% or whatever. Yeah, so on the really good LAFC teams at night,
00:54:16
Speaker
I don't know why I keep coming back to this, but on those like really good LFC teams from a couple years ago, they had Mark Anthony K, right? No. Exceptionally good midfielder in MLS. His standard has dropped. He's not as good anymore. The equivalent to the Sounders is Christian Rabon. Really great. You know, he's probably still better, but it's like you do kind of have to wonder if like,
00:54:43
Speaker
if the Sounders had a different approach to roster building, maybe Christian Roldan wouldn't still be here, which is kind of like, I know, blasphemous to say, but it's like, what if there was somebody willing to pay a record allocation money in a trade and like, what does that kind of movement do for your roster? Because I'm sure there are players in the Sounders locker room
00:55:10
Speaker
tired of Christian Roldan's shtick. That's just like, you get tired of your coworkers. Soccer players, professional athletes are no different. And I don't know why I felt like I needed disparage Christian Roldan, but- I get your point. Totally. It's just kind of like,
00:55:34
Speaker
There are teams in this league that are very successful right now that seem to have shelf lives for their players that are two to three seasons, and then they just kind of keep moving things on. I think Portland is another team that's done a worse job at that, but good enough. So it's just kind of like something's gotta happen. And I'm worried it's gotta happen all at once now. Right. Yeah, and I think if you wanna say,
00:56:04
Speaker
Christian is a guy we're building around. Jordan Morris is a guy we're building around. Obed is a guy that we think it's important that he stays here because we want to sell him for money and he needs to start. I'm okay with there being some of those guys, right? I don't think it has to be all the way either or. But does Neuhu need to be the starting left back as long as he's been? Like, does Yamar need to be a starting center back as long as he's been? And I'm not advocating trading Neuhu or trading Yamar. Alex,
00:56:35
Speaker
Shop Hollow, those are guys that to me, I love them, they're all good players, but if you can get real value for them on the trade market or transfer market, and you can improve,
00:56:47
Speaker
Uh, you should be looking to do it. And I think those are the kind of moves, those marginal improvements for players that are already good. Uh, that I think separate LFC Columbus, uh, you know, Miami doesn't really count their, their, they don't, they don't play about the same rules. So it's a different thing, but.
00:57:07
Speaker
Cincinnati. Yeah, Cincinnati. Sure. Yeah. Cincinnati's just last three years in a row. It's not like what they did as rocket science. Yeah. And I think that the Sounders used to be a team that did that a little more often. And I think to some degree, it was easier to do that when it wasn't guys that were part of a Champions League winning squad or it wasn't guys that were part of it, you know, won an MLS Cup at home.
00:57:34
Speaker
When it was guys who lost to the galaxy in the playoffs again, it was a little easier to move them on, you know? And, you know, I wonder if we're kind of getting to that point now, especially with all the
00:57:46
Speaker
all the money coming off the roster next year, and Craig Webb will have a lot more flexibility to go out and do things, move and shake a little bit. If, you know, maybe we're kind of seeing, we'll kind of see a little bit of a return to that, because I, again, I don't want to single out any of the guys on the team, because I don't, when I look at this roster, I don't see bad players that are getting regular playing time. I see good MLS players, but, you know, maybe we could have different ones that do different things at some of those spots.
00:58:17
Speaker
Yeah, great. Last thing I want to talk about real quick. Sounders play Portland this weekend on Saturday. I think the last time we recorded, it wasn't live, at least, which I guess we ended up not recording. We'll figure it out eventually. But the last in-studio episode we recorded, Jeremiah said,
00:58:38
Speaker
If the Sounders beat LAFC and they open cups in my final, I do not care what happens in Portland. I wholeheartedly agreed with him. They didn't do that. They lost LAFC, as I think we talked about earlier. So does that change how you feel about this game? Yeah, it does. Yeah. Especially with the like near term sort of schedule. So it's, um,
00:59:05
Speaker
It's Portland away, Columbus away, and then sporting Kansas City at home. You have to get six points from those three games. You have to, which is a little bit below two points a game, a little bit above. I'm not the greatest at math, but... Like 2.3, I think. Okay, yeah, so it keeps your pace, at least. Especially just to kind of like,
00:59:35
Speaker
for the vibes, you just got to win. And then you start bringing in the context of the actual game, where Portland's two attackers are not going to be playing because one's hurt and then the other one kicked a guy in the head.
00:59:56
Speaker
and just the Phil Neville-ness of Portland. You gotta beat him, man. Beat him earlier this year in Portland as well. Yeah. And what's crazy to me is Portland's record is not very good.
01:00:14
Speaker
It's fine. There are three points worse off than the Sounders, but they have scored the second most goals in MLS. They score a lot. Yeah. And it's their games are crazy. Like this game this last weekend against, uh, was it Colorado? I can't, it was four four. They scored down a man, uh, in stoppage time. Um,
01:00:39
Speaker
their games are just chaos and St. Louis. And I don't want to see, I don't want to deal with this current sounders team in a chaotic game. I just don't really have the appetite for that. I think it goes really poorly if that happens. And then I really don't want to deal with the aftermath of like,
01:01:08
Speaker
losing to L.A.F.C. twice in a week, four times in a year, L.A.F.C. knocking us out of every competition in the last year and then having to deal with like losing to Phil Neville on the back of that.
01:01:23
Speaker
really would not, I just don't want to be in that realm. So I think they should just win. Yeah, I tend to agree. I think it would be good if they would win. I think I feel better about this game than I would if it were here for obvious reasons. You know, I think
01:01:44
Speaker
I think the sounders are more well equipped to deal with Portland's chaotic nature than a lot of teams.
Upcoming Matches & Recovery Strategies
01:01:52
Speaker
The game earlier in the season, granted this was a long time ago, I think both teams have changed a lot, but Portland did not do anything all game. They did get the one goal, it was kind of a fluky one, and that was it. That was the only thing they created. The sounders were just kind of
01:02:10
Speaker
playing with them for a lot of that game. So yeah, I feel reasonably optimistic. Also very embarrassing to admit that I did the math and it turns out that six divided by three is in fact two. So I just felt the need to correct that. But yeah, so I
01:02:31
Speaker
I think this one is, it's not necessarily a must win. I think if they get five out of these three, I'm okay with that. So if they get a draw in Portland and a draw in Columbus and a win, you know, against sport in KC, that's okay with me. But I think the important thing is not to have a hangover effect from the open cup. The Sounders have actually been pretty decent recently, at least about bouncing back from
01:02:55
Speaker
from, uh, tough losses, you know, they, they lost to LAFC three nil and then came out and won the next game against Minnesota in the league's cup. Lost in a Cox and pretty dispiriting fashion and then came out and won their next one in the league's cup.
01:03:10
Speaker
got waxed by LAFC in the League's Cup, came out and beat Minnesota in a game that I think was a really tough, hard fought win for them. So I'm pretty optimistic that they'll be able to bounce back. And I think that there's all the motivation in the world to do it against the Timbers. But yeah, I would rather I'd not care about this game because we were going to a seven cup final for sure. But I think
01:03:34
Speaker
you know, staying on track in the league, beating your rival for the second time in a row in Portland, giving them a little taste of their own medicine would definitely solve the wound for me. Yeah, and I like can't overstate this enough. I can't understate it or whatever you're supposed to say. I like do not like Phil Neville. No, he's a real bad guy. He's a bad guy. He's very annoying. He is like,
01:04:05
Speaker
so deeply unlikable. Yeah. In a way that is like so different than other timbers head coaches. Like Caleb Porter was a deeply unlikable scumbag. But during his tenure in Portland, he was actually like talented. Right. And then he went on to win.
01:04:30
Speaker
an MLS Cup with a different team. I don't remember who he beat, but... Yeah, no matter. When you look at his Wikipedia page, he's won two MLS Cups. Yeah. Phil Neville is like an insult to Nepo babies in a way that is just like really unsat, like it leaves a really bad taste in my mouth. Yeah.
01:04:58
Speaker
I'm sure his playing career doesn't have anything to do with it. And even then, he kind of was like, benefited from his brother. It's true. Yeah, I just like, I never want to see Phil Neville beat the Sounders. And so if that could just not happen,
01:05:22
Speaker
Yeah, really pleased. It's truly insane that he got another MLS job. It's completely baffling. Like he got the England women job because the English FA at that time did not give a shit about women's football at all. And he did a bad job. It seemed like he was doing an okay job until he left and his successor did a much, much better job. He was bad with inter Miami.
01:05:49
Speaker
The team wasn't great, but you made them worse. Right. Yeah.
01:05:58
Speaker
And then he got hired by Portland because merit Paulson is a, you know, nobody else wanted the job. Well, that's a big part of it. Yeah. Yeah. So yeah, it's, it's crazy that he, that he got another MLS job. Um, he should be coaching in like league two probably. Uh, and yeah, I would, I would very much like the sounders too.
01:06:20
Speaker
to beat the timbers. That's not shocking to hear, but you're right that him being the coach makes it even more satisfying, I think, when you can beat him. So I think that's a good place to call it. Mark, thank you so much for joining us. It's always a pleasure. And I am Aaron Campo. Jeremiah should be back next week.
01:06:43
Speaker
And, uh, yeah, thanks for, thanks for listening. Uh, thank you to full poll wines for their sponsorship and thank you to all of our subscribers. Uh, this is NOS Adietas and we will catch you next time.
01:07:53
Speaker
We love you. Let's win another one!