HSBC Global Viewpoint Introduction
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Welcome to HSBC Global Viewpoint, the podcast series that brings together business leaders and industry experts to explore the latest global insights, trends, and opportunities.
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Make sure you're subscribed to stay up to date with new episodes. Thanks for listening. And now onto to today's show.
Pre-Iran Conflict Survey Insights
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This podcast is based on insights gathered from a survey conducted prior to the Iran conflict. Please be aware that certain market conditions discussed may have since changed.
Treasury Beyond Borders Series Overview
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Welcome to this special TMI podcast series in collaboration with HSBC called Treasury Beyond Borders, balancing risk and opportunity through global growth. I'm Eleanor Hill, editorial consultant at TMI. And over this series of podcasts, I'll be exploring how global treasury is evolving amid geopolitical shifts and digital transformation.
Managing Risk in Uncertain Markets
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And across these episodes and with insights from HSBC experts, we'll dive into key themes both globally and across different regions from managing risk in uncertain markets to leveraging new trade corridors and emerging technologies. And I'm delighted to be joined by a guest who we've had on twice before. So he's back for the hat trick of podcasts this
Global Markets Pulse Survey Discussion
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time. He is Rahul Badra, who is Global Head of Corporate Sales, Markets and Securities Services at HSBC.
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And we're here today to talk about the results of the latest Global Markets Pulse Survey 2026 and what the risks therein mean for corporates in this challenging environment. So Rahul, welcome back. How are you doing? Eleanor, always good to see you.
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Whenever you reference me as an expert, I feel really great. And I'm also very happy you've used the cricketing term with hat trick given England and India play tomorrow in the T20s. So time will tell. Oh, I know. You can blame my dad for that, what he did. He's a huge cricketing fan so I grew up with cricket and almost every single day at home but anyway let's get to the survey because we've got so much coming out of this year's survey results so just give us a bit of a a high level look Rahul at the survey results maybe the top three risks that you're seeing corporates coming out of that how what are they prioritizing what are they most focused on right now and what will you say is driving those top three risks to the ah to the top of the agenda?
Corporate Focus: Geopolitical and Financial Risks
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So i think like every year, this year has brought its own set of challenges and uncertainty. So no specific order. I would say the three areas that clients are probably most focused on, one is navigating the geopolitical uncertainty.
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I think second, it's just trying to get a handle of where things would land in relation to the interest rate cycle, especially with regard to the Federal Reserve. And last but not least, but very closely linked to the previous two points is the currency environment and currency risk.
00:02:54
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So these, I would say, is probably broadly the three areas that they're very, very focused on. i can I can definitely spend more time talking a little bit about each of them if you would like me to. That would be great. Please do. Give us all the details. So, Millie, I can start with the Fed. So from our you know global investment research perspective, our view with regard to what the Fed will do for this year and even next year currently remains unchanged.
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and And that view is that the Fed will stand pat, that is, will keep interest rates in the 3.5% to 3.75% range through this year and next year. Now, clearly, there are double-sided risks to this outlook. But as of now, we are maintaining our outlook that there will be no change in rates for 26 and 27. Now, the most recent meeting minutes that were released last month, or rather in January, did highlight how the policymakers are thinking about you know some of the key factors that are likely to drive monetary policy, such as the outlook for the labor market this year, the trajectory for inflation, etc.
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But there have been other developments that we need to keep a watch out for. So we've seen the Supreme Court ruling on tariffs and the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. So we need to see how that impacts the U.S.
Energy Prices and Inflation Impact
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economy. We also need to think about how the current sharp move up in energy prices can impact inflation landscape.
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So in this environment, you know what we are really working with clients is to help them understand you know what is their current and future debt profile, you know What does success look like when it comes to interest rate risk management? And then you know find, i would say, what are the appropriate solutions that are aligned to you know their KPIs, share our sector knowledge in terms of what other clients in their industry vertical are doing, and then obviously you know use our expertise to share ideas and also give some guidance on how these ideas fit in when it comes to things like hedge accounting. That I would say in a nutshell is, is you know, what is keeping us busy and clients thinking about the interest rate side. And then it, of course, all feeds into the second theme you mentioned of geopolitics as well.
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Our approach to, I think, any geopolitical challenge that might arise is to actually focus on the long-term needs of our clients. Because, you know, when you're thinking strategically, it has to be long-term. You know, tactical decisions can be made to deal with the short-term. But I think clients do always prefer thinking long-term.
Navigating Geopolitical Challenges with HSBC
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And for us with over 160 years experience of operating across the globe in more than 50 markets, I think the bank is very, very well placed and ready to help our clients understand the trade environment and the financial markets. So as the geopolitical environment unfolds, it's you know us working with clients, for example, to help them in shifting supply chains, you know managing foreign exchange risk, especially when markets become illiquid.
00:05:50
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And these are some of the things that I think we can really step up and help our clients on and navigate when the when the markets become uncertain and the uncertainty then plays out into you know trying to figure out what is the best way to navigate these uncertain waters and take decisions at the same time, which are fit for purpose for the long run. and And I think it's linked to that on the currency risk side, if I can just end with that. So the start of this year, we did see the dollar continue to fall.
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And I think we'd fallen by nearly 15% from the peak that the dollar hit in September 2022. So the concern for many of our clients is obviously, will we see more of the same in 2026? I.e., will the dollar continue to fall?
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Or is there going to be something different because you know this trend has been there for nearly three years now, And are we going to see a complete reversal? And I think for our clients, gradual moves are not a concern. You know, when when the markets are range bound or even if they are trending up or down, if it's gradual, that is something that, you know, we can all deal with.
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It is the sharp moves and then moves which are completely come out of the blue. i think that is where the impact can be sizable. So for us, it's working with our clients to understand the microeconomics and the macroeconomics and how they can be impacting the value of currencies.
00:07:14
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And obviously, you know, our global investment research does come out with regular updates on what we are forecasting for currencies in the near term and in the longer term. It's also helping our clients on execution via cutting edge, I would say, electronic
Introduction to AutoHedge
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platforms and capabilities. And I just want to call out a more recent and addition to our plethora of solutions, which is a product we call AutoHedge.
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And this allows our clients who have and automated who do want an automated rule-based hedging solution to take advantage of this. And you know they decide on what they want to do, what their rules are, and it just automatically executes for them. And I think last but not least, every client's risk-reward objectives can be different.
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you know And therefore, providing tailor-made solutions, I think that aligned with those objectives is absolutely critical. So in a nutshell, you know that's what's happening with currency risk and in geopolitics and obviously the interest rate environment.
00:08:12
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Yeah, an awful lot going on. But like you say, some interesting tech that's coming out to assist people as well. And of course, all of the the research that goes on behind the scenes. But it's very interesting, that automated side of things, because it's not like the ah tech is making the decisions for you. You're setting the parameters. It's just making much easier to to maintain on an automated basis. But Rahul, digging into those key risks that you've identified there, what Which of those, Atreashya, is actually able to manage or hedge effectively? Which remain more structural, harder to control, would you say? What's driving that and what guidance are corporates looking for from their banking partners as a result?
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Thanks, Eleanor. So I think firstly, i would I would set the stage by saying that there is no magic wand, right? And when it comes to managing risk, there is no one size fits all. And therefore, I think at times the cookie cutter approach can actually fail to deliver what clients need. So from my perspective and the bank's perspective, I think it's very important that the banking partners as ourselves really put ourselves in the client's shoes to understand and appreciate the risks that they're trying to solve for and why.
00:09:28
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you know So what is it that they're trying to achieve from the risk management strategy? what is considered effective risk management, you know, when you look at the scorecard at the end of the year. And therefore it is critical to understand also the industry and the sector the client is a part of, because if you're in TMT or technology or you're in shipbuilding, your capital structure, your supply chains, your cash generation, your trade life cycle can all be very, very different.
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yeah And therefore a solution that might work for a shipbuilder may not work for a technology client. And these nuances I think are very, very important to understand. So yes, we understand the products from a risk management perspective, but for the products to be effective, I think it's very important to understand the client's business And their objectives. And for us, you know, this industry led coverage model and solutions approach, I think is really the cornerstone of the way we try and bring our product expertise and markets with, you know, what clients are looking for and and make sure that that, you know, fits in well and and delivers what the clients really need.
00:10:38
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Yeah, an awful lot of different things that need to come together, though. And it's so different for ah individual clients. But there's lots of expertise that you can bring from one sector to another one client to another. So it's always interesting to have those conversations and and see what's emerging in terms of best practice.
Corporate Funding Trends
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But Rahul, I wanted to come back to the interest rates and the US dollar dynamics that we've obviously spoken about already and it's pretty central to everything that's going on today. So with that, how are you seeing corporates rethinking their approach to funding, to FX, risk management? Tell us a little bit about some of the concrete things that you've seen happening.
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Now again, all ah very, very important. So let me maybe address each of them one by one So when it comes to funding, I think clearly as we saw data points in January, the year got off to a record start.
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Corporate borrowers, I think, raised more than $95 billion dollars in just the first week of January, which has probably made it the busiest start to the year on record. And I think this desire to raise financing at this record pace that we've seen is being driven by a few factors. So one is refinancing, which happens every year.
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But I think what is peculiar to 2026 is that think what was happening in the world five years ago. yeah It was the onset of the pandemic. Everybody was wanting to raise money and ensure they had enough access to liquidity. um So some of that issuance, which was definitely raised for you know five years, is maturing now, and that is being refinanced.
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I think secondly, as we've seen in the press, hyperscaler funding in relation to everything that is happening with with AI and data centers, i think that capex is expected to top $650 billion dollars this year I think some of this funding is also opportunistic. And what I mean by that is funding is still relatively very cheap.
00:12:36
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You know, corporate credit spreads are at historic lows. So, you know, why wouldn't you raise money when it's cheap to do so? But last but not least, and I'm sure there are other factors, but I think the way I would end this by saying is there is also that sentiment of let's raise money for a rainy day. Because as this year has progressed, there have been new challenges that people have had to deal with in terms of uncertainty. And apart from all the opportunities and the glass half full view that some clients have, for them, it is also making sure that any challenges that the external environment is posing and any uncertainty that is out there, they just want to make sure they've got, you know, enough firepower. And therefore, you know, it's just making sure you're raising money for a rainy day.
Risk Management Strategies and Costs
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So that I would probably say is what driving the financing side.
00:13:26
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On risk management, you know as our inaugural ah Global Markets Pulse Survey shows, for majority of our corporates, you know they are clearly evaluating various things such as, is the currency pair trading at multi-year highs or lows?
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You know, when something is at a record high, you are probably more driven to take a risk selling the dollar. and And similarly, if the dollar is a multi-year low or record lows against another currency pairs, you're probably more inclined to look to increase your hedging if you're looking to buy dollars. So i think that historical perspective is important.
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I think we are also seeing an increased use of optionality when it comes to hedging. And I think for clients, this is a true value add because when the markets are uncertain, you don't want to have all your eggs in one basket. And therefore, optionality gives you that freedom and that flexibility.
00:14:21
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i think thirdly, it's also a question of what clients are hedging. So some of the exposures are short term. You know, these are balance sheet hedges, which have a very different approach to hedging versus longer term cash flow hedging, where you're taking a certain view on what the future could unfold in terms of exposures. And then there is obviously net investment hedging which clients are thinking about, which is linked to their overseas assets. And just two other things. I think one is clients are also thinking about correlation between currency pairs, because you have to take that into account, especially if you're a client with you know a very global supply chain and a very global consumer base. So at times it's more efficient to hedge taking these correlations into account.
00:15:05
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I think last but not least, clients are also thinking about AI in a slightly different way. So with everything that is happening in ai there is a demand for certain commodities, copper, for example.
00:15:17
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And how does that now story start playing into the demand for commodities, which then benefits the currencies, which are commodity currencies linked to, for example, copper. And this is where, for example, some of the Latin American currencies come into play. yeah so So lots, lots going on.
00:15:34
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Very interesting. And I've been hearing a lot more about the commodity side of things lately is actually writing an article on it at the moment. so I'm glad that you mentioned that ties into everything that I'm hearing from the market as well. But Rahul, wanted to delve a little bit more into what the survey suggests around the approaches to managing FX volatility. You've outlined some of of what you've been seeing there.
00:15:56
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But I feel like we've been talking about optionality for a while now. i'm sure it was last summer that we we've had our first conversation about it. And I know you've been talking to clients about it for a long time. Are you actually seeing clients shift their hedging strategies or are most of them kind of sticking with established programs despite us having all of these conversations?
00:16:15
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So I think, again, the answer does vary from client to client and sector to sector. But in summary, I think clients are evaluating if a change makes sense.
00:16:26
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You know, I generally believe, you know, if it ain't broke, don't fix it. Yeah. This can't be a fashion statement that, you know, if everybody's doing it, I got to jump into it. From our survey, it is definitely the case that majority of your clients are looking to re-evaluate.
00:16:41
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But again, i think the risk is that actually not all currency pairs, if I can call it that, are created equal. And what I mean by that is we have seen a very sharp rally in some Latin American currencies versus the U.S. dollar.
00:16:54
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You know, think Brazilian real, think Mexican peso. So there, if you look at how these currencies have performed, where volatility is, what is the cost of hedging? I think definitely for a lot of clients, the levels are very attractive. All the stars seem to be aligned to increase your hedge ratios if you're a buyer of dollars against BRL or MXN, which is the Mexican peso. So i think that's where clients are definitely evaluating some of the areas on the LATAM side.
00:17:23
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I think for some of our clients hedging is also about affordability. And this is where the cost of hedging comes in because the cost of hedging does get driven by interest rate differentials.
00:17:35
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And just because the interest rate differentials are wide and the cost of hedging is high, it doesn't necessarily mean you should hedge because the cost of hedging is not necessarily always a great indicator of how the currency might behave in the future. yeah so for some of our clients, it is also taking a call on, is the cost of hedging outweigh the risk of hedging or remaining unhedged?
00:17:58
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And in Asia, I think definitely clients are very sensitive to this because the hedging costs in some Asian currencies can be sizable given the interest rate differential with the dollar. And obviously it depends on whether you're a buyer or or a seller of a dollar, but that can be quite sizable. So that's where that comes into play.
00:18:15
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And I think last but not least, you know, as you started off, you're right. You know, every year we talk about optionality. Clients demand flexibility. But how they look at flexibility, I think, does change and becomes nuanced. Are they looking for flexibility in only longer-dated hedges? So they might start looking at flexibility even in shorter-dated hedges.
00:18:35
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The risk return for each optionality can vary. More risk, more return. Less risk, less return. So I think those are the kind of things that are evaluated when it comes to using optionality. And this is definitely coming through in the survey, I would say.
00:18:49
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And in terms of the agility that some corporates have, Rahul, when we look at their internal risk policies, do you see them influencing decision making in the right way?
Flexible Risk Management Policies
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Are they helping corporates to stay consistent? Are they those guidelines that say, oh, yeah, don't react to every single market move and be doing things all the time. You need to have a measured approach.
00:19:09
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Or are they sometimes actually limiting agility when it's really needed when those markets do move quickly? You know, Eleanor, you've hit the nail on the head. i think the worst mistake a client can do is actually have a risk management policy, which is always, you know, looking in back, right? Because hindsight is always 20-20. But the reality is the way the market has reacted to a particular event in the past, it may not react to that event in the same way, even if it repeats in the future. Right.
00:19:39
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And i can bring this home by giving the example of the RMB. The Chinese RMB reacted very differently to the first time tariffs were imposed in 2018, where it depreciated versus 2025, where actually the currency is appreciated versus the US dollar.
00:19:57
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So I think for companies, I think what is very important is firstly, have a consistent risk management policy, which ensures discipline. Because there is no policy that will work every year, year after year after year.
00:20:12
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Just because a policy hasn't worked one year doesn't necessarily mean it needs to be changed. So that is my first message. I think the second message I would say is clients should remain flexible and appreciate that, like I said, what has worked in the past also may not work in the future. So they definitely need to, I think, from time to time, evaluate you know the size, the tenor, the currency mix of the exposure, because these could have undergone a sea change based on the client's own business, right? Because of the way supply chains are changing, because of the way some of their consumer bases are shifting in terms of importance, how their operating margins might be changing, et cetera, et cetera.
00:20:52
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um I think the other thing clients also need to take into account is how are their competitors? And this is where my point on being sensitive to the industry and sector you're a part of becomes important. So if I am a chemical manufacturer, it's probably more important for me to understand what my competitors are doing to manage risk versus what a client in a completely unrelated sector or industry might be doing. And i think It's also important to understand that the factors that might be influencing the currency markets, while the dollar might still be going up or down, the factors that are driving it in 26 might be very different from what might be happening in 25. And I think what makes it even more challenging is that all the factors that are present, it can actually happen that from month to month, one becomes a predominant factor and that predominance dilutes in the next two, three months and something else becomes a predominant factor. So
00:21:50
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You know, managing interest rate currency risk commodity risk is not an easy job. um And therefore, consistency, long term thinking, and most importantly, understanding what you're trying to solve for. What does the board look at when they evaluate risk management policy? What are the expectations of the shareholders? when it comes to risk management policy and what the risk management policy is trying to solve for, whether it's operating margin consistency, whether it's earnings per share stability. I think those kind of things are very, very important. Yeah, yeah.
00:22:23
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Fortunately, though, Rahul, when we're looking at all of this risk, trying to quantify it, looking at liquidity management, we're no longer just left with ah a news feed and an next Excel spreadsheet or a piece of paper and a pencil.
AI's Role in Forecasting and Liquidity
00:22:34
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There's a lot of tech coming out to help people as well. And one of those has to be AI. And I know we've spoken about it before. What are you seeing in terms of corporates doing that, how it's helping them with things like forecasting, scenario analysis, and essentially just changing the way that they approach risk and liquidity management? So, i don't know, again, um you're you're absolutely right. But you know, what I've now started to see, and I was, you know, traveling a couple of weeks ago, and I met a client, and this is just one example, but I'm now seeing that AI is moving from discussion to implementation. So for example,
00:23:11
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One of the things that AI does really well is the ability to manage huge volumes of data. And this client was telling me, and they've they've now implemented this for one of their product verticals. They're seeing how it pans out and they're going to then copy and paste it to other product verticals. But they are using AI exactly as you pointed out to get their forecasting accurate.
00:23:32
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Because if your forecasting is not accurate, your cash flow hedging, which does hedge your forecasted cash flows, that can go horribly wrong. yeah right You can either end up being overhatched or underhatched and both the scenarios may not be the right outcome. So what they've done is they've looked at, historically they used to forecast, not that they did not forecast, but that was being done you know by human built Excel models, which was always limited in their ability to take into account so many factors that influence their sales. Now with AI, they can throw a hundred variables
00:24:09
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right and a million pieces of data ah which are correlated not correlated and what they've seen because obviously you don't know whether some forecast is great unless you actually go into the future yeah so they ran this model into their past sales to see what the forecast would look like and it's been absolutely brilliant so one forecasting i think is going to be ai the way it can forecast sales or the costs that clients are having to deal with in the future i think that will improve dramatically
00:24:39
Speaker
I think secondly, it's also about timing. So how a hedging product or solutions performs is often about timing. So if you think about what were the market conditions like when this hedge was executed, right?
00:24:55
Speaker
And it could be that this hedge works well when executed at a particular time, but not every other point in time. Yeah. And so here, once again, I think AI has a very good role to play because it has the potential to go a long way in determining why, for example, caller structure in an option works for a particular currency pair or for a particular tenor, but not for another currency pair or not for another tenor, because you've got...
00:25:22
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volumes and volumes of historical data that you can analyze, right? You're analyzing the data, you're analyzing what the external environment was, you were analyzing geopolitical things that were happening, you know, policy decisions, etc. So just the ability to forecast, I think becomes absolutely incredible.
00:25:39
Speaker
It is. It's amazing. And like you say, how many different data points you can put in and then picking up things like actually this successful hedge was ah an anomaly, you know, because of these particular conditions that were going on at the moment. So don't do that one again, even though it looked like it was great for you. So it's all of those different things that you can think about. And ah so interesting how quickly AI has moved on. I was chatting to one of my treasury friends and he said, You know, I think we're beyond talking about AI use cases in Treasury. It's like we don't talk about use cases for having a mobile phone or a laptop anymore. He's like, that's where I think we're at. He's very bullish on AI. But, you know, it's very amazing how quickly things have moved on and people are really taking to it. And also the the banking side and the TMS provider side, there's so much innovation coming out around AI and automation as well. But Rahul, if you had to summarize a key takeaway from this year's survey, because there's so much coming out of there, there's so many different themes, so many different results. What would that one takeaway be? Where should treasurers focus their attention to stay ahead over the next six to 12 months?
00:26:47
Speaker
i think i don't know if i Before I jump into that, I think I would maybe just um you know to the point that you were making on AI use cases. I think for us in the bank, and for you know I think what I definitely see is the way AI is helping drive sales productivity. right We all have got a certain number of hours in the day that we spend at work.
00:27:06
Speaker
If we can become far more productive, we can just do so much more. Yeah. And he has been a complete game changer on that. But I think equally importantly, you know, while there is an efficiency angle, there is also a quality angle. Right. And what I mean by that is the quality of content and insights that we are being able to provide our clients with in a timely manner, in a well thought out manner. And, and you know, this is obviously ensuring that with AI, we are getting more time to engage directly with our clients and provide high quality content. Yeah, yeah. Right. And then again, even for our clients, our ai is helping enhance their experience when they're interacting with HSBC's own own digital platforms, right? So our AI markets platform, you know, which uses natural ah language processing, chatbots, et cetera, that is enabling our clients, for example, to interact with our research agent, and ask questions for market insights, you know just as one example.
00:28:02
Speaker
So it's it's been an absolute game changer. And I think if there was any skepticism in relation to AI, I think that is slowly changing when people start to appreciate the value add that the tools can bring in terms of efficiency and and everything else. Agreed, agreed. So, okay, what would be the key takeaway?
00:28:22
Speaker
Nothing very prophetic, but I would just say that, you know, unfortunately in life, the only constant is change. Yeah. Right? We cannot predict what the new factors which you will be, which will come into play every year.
00:28:35
Speaker
But the only thing that we can predict is every year will be volatile. And the fact is probably driving that volatility will probably change. So in such an environment, when I say that the only constant is change, I mean it wholeheartedly. And therefore, I think what is very important for our clients is that they work with their banking partner.
00:28:55
Speaker
and understand in many ways, how can you be prepared for the worst? Because that is very important, right? Even what could be a tail risk could actually become a very high probability event.
00:29:07
Speaker
right so and if you're not prepared for it you know that's when when the tide goes out you know you're left without your clothes on so i think prepare for the worst but also have that positive glass half full view that you know and hope for the best and you know the reality is that all the models ah you know all the brain power that the humans have at times the markets can surprise everybody and this is where i think what john keen said is is probably the best way to describe it and end on is that markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
00:29:41
Speaker
So I'll probably and end with that. Brilliant stuff. It brings us back nicely to the point that you were making earlier about having money for a rainy day and all of that resilience that we've spoken about for so, so long. Rahul, thank you so much for joining us again for this episode of Treasury Beyond Borders. And I hope everyone listening enjoyed the discussion. Be sure to subscribe and stay updated on our upcoming episodes and watch out for the articles accompanying this series as well. But for now, thanks again to Rahul and thanks to everyone for listening.
00:30:15
Speaker
Thank you for joining us at HSBC Global Viewpoint. We hope you enjoyed the discussion. Make sure you're subscribed to stay up to date with new episodes.