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Mailbag for June 4: Why can’t the Sounders score at home?
224 Plays1 year ago
With no game last weekend, Jeremiah and Aaron have an extended Mailbag episode this week. Among the topics they tackle are what the Sounders need to do for this season to be considered a success; how much of the malaise around the team is directly attributable to home scoring woes; and where expectations should be set for the summer transfer window.
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Transcript
Introduction and Sponsorship
00:00:00
Speaker
Hey, this is Christian Roldan. And Jordan Morris from the Seattle Sounders Football Club. And you're listening to NOS Arietes. This episode of NOS Arietes is sponsored by Full Pull Wines, a Seattle-based wine retailer and proud sponsor of NOS Arietes since 2011.
Celebrating Sounders' Successes
00:00:14
Speaker
Full Pull was founded in 2009, is based in Seattle, and is owned and operated by longtime Sounders supporters. They offer the best boutique wines of the world to members of their mailing list, with special focus on their home, the Pacific Northwest.
00:00:28
Speaker
A.O. Shen! Let's go! What a save by Fry! The Seattle Sounders have done it! MLS Cup win! Here come three years through the middle to crown it the vehicle! And now they truly can't stop the celebrations. It's the Sounders' MLS Cup! Niko Liddo leaves out!
00:01:09
Speaker
I just feel fucking awesome. This is a tiny fucking bow. Is that what you young people call twerking? I'm going to win. Let's see how the sun goes, bro. Welcome back to another episode of NOS Arietes. This is the mailbag episode we are recording on June 4th.
Interview with Adrian Hanauer Insights
00:01:38
Speaker
We had the weekend off, so no new games to talk about. We already did the RSL episode, and the big news that has happened in the meantime is I finally released the interview that I did with Adrian Hanauer. It was done about 10 days ago. It was released, so it was already a week old by the time I did it, but I think it held up okay. I don't know, Aaron. What were your impressions of that interview? Did you learn anything from that interview?
00:02:09
Speaker
I think that Adrian is extremely good at saying a lot.
00:02:16
Speaker
and also making it kind of difficult to parse what he's saying without it seeming the way at first, maybe. I think that based on similar interviews in the past, all of the things he said about player acquisition were encouraging to me. I think that a lot of people wanted him to come out and say, we are committed to doing XYZ, and he is just not going to do that. But I mean, I feel like
00:02:46
Speaker
very shortly before the Sounders went out and got Raul Rui Diaz at a time when a lot of people were insisting, no, they're not going to do it. They're not going to go sign another DP. This is just the way the team is now. Adrian said, you know, I really like our team and I think we can compete and then a week later.
00:03:02
Speaker
They, they signed Raul Rodriguez. Um, and, and I just think a lot of his comments were similar. Um, and, and it's, you know, if there have been other windows or similar things where he's not the type of guy to throw anybody under the bus. Um, he's certainly not going to say anything to, to undermine the players or say anything about them. Um, so he's always going to say likes the roster, but.
Club World Cup Ambitions
00:03:24
Speaker
I don't know. I think he was sending very positive signals about what they intend to do over the next couple of windows. I'm nervous. He seems to understand. I will say he didn't run away from the enormity of the Club World Cup. That's around the corner.
00:03:48
Speaker
Ultimately, the proof is going to be in, does he go out and give the green light to make some signings? I think we'd all like to see something happen this summer. I would say he gave enough to allow for that hope. He obviously stopped well short of promising some big acquisition in the summer, but he didn't dismiss it either.
00:04:17
Speaker
Yeah. And I think that that's important. I think that if it's something that wasn't feasible for one reason or another, that feels like the kind of thing he's going to allude more strongly towards. I don't think he's ever going to say that, but I think that he is going to, he wants to set expectations, right? He wants to set them and he wants to set them lower, I think generally than. Yeah. He's, he is a big time, you know, Garth used to say that he was a big under promise over deliver guy. Yep.
00:04:46
Speaker
And I would say that's even more true for Adrian. I don't know if you've ever actually used that term with me, but he is notoriously been really, you know, like if something is likely to going to get done, but he, he's not sure he'll say it's 50 50. But if it's, you know, um, if it's basically done, then he'll say he feels pretty good about it, you know, that kind of thing. And, you know, that was sort of the vibe I got when he was talking about
00:05:17
Speaker
hosting Club World Cup games, which I do think is a big factor too, because hosting the Club World Cup games is money. It's A, it's money. These are potentially high revenue games that they can sell. And that's money that presumably can go back into the acquisition budget. And if you're playing home games, that's even more reason to want to put your best foot forward. And it's not about
00:05:45
Speaker
And I think he actually did an okay job articulating this. It's not about building a roster that's going to go toe to toe or dollar to dollar with man city. Like that's not going to happen, right? They're not going to, but it's not about.
00:05:58
Speaker
going toe-to-toe with Man City, it's about finishing second in your group and getting into the knockout stage and just seeing how far you can advance. No one's expecting the Sounders to win this thing, but if they can win two or three games and be better than the Asian or African teams in their
00:06:18
Speaker
in their group, that's good. Yeah, I think that that's the important thing, right? You want to be able to go toe-to-toe with the teams you should conceivably be able to go toe-to-toe with. You want to give yourself a puncher's chance against everyone else. And crazy stuff can happen in a knockout stage. So if you can just get to the knockout stage,
00:06:41
Speaker
Like you said, nobody is expecting the Sounders to win this competition to get lucky enough times that they pick up a trophy. But if you can win one game in the knockout stage, you've got to feel pretty good about that. And it's just about setting yourself up to do that, I think, in a way that's not fiscally irresponsible, right? That doesn't mean you have to be
00:07:05
Speaker
as responsible as you would at a different time, right? Like I think you have to understand that this is an opportunity to maybe stretch yourself a little from where you would be comfortable just for a normal acquisition because there is
00:07:20
Speaker
a pretty great opportunity here to do something special. But you also can't go crazy for this one competition. And I think that that's a very reasonable position. If it just means spending 5% to 10% more than you would, I'm pulling that number out of thin air. That seems reasonable to me. That seems like a reasonable stretch for how special this competition is and how exciting of an opportunity it could be.
00:07:49
Speaker
right I mean this has been you know this is even more than the club World Cup that they have already competed in this is really closer to what they had envisioned someday being a part of when you know from the minute they they
00:08:06
Speaker
this was sort of the, this was the, this was the destination that they were aiming towards. And, and if you can put you know, and I and it's, you know, it's, it's, it's not about showing man city that you can go toe to toe with them, it's about just
00:08:27
Speaker
you know, being competitive. I think it's a great opportunity. He seems to appreciate that. That was probably the biggest thing that I got out of the interview was just his
00:08:40
Speaker
his grasp of his appreciation for the moment, I guess, as far as that goes. And there was plenty of other stuff that I'm sure people will like and not like. I can understand why some people were not completely satisfied with the answers. I can understand why some people might not have been satisfied with the questions, that I could have gone harder on him, that he could have been more specific.
00:09:06
Speaker
These are all things that I will not try to defend either way here, but I thought overall there was more there, I think, than I originally thought. Yeah, I think that he's a guy who multiple readings, you know, might benefit.
00:09:26
Speaker
might benefit people because he's very careful about what he says, but I also don't think he's opposed to leaving rabbit trails, you know? He's a smart guy. Yeah, and at some point we probably should do a deeper dive into the whole, you know, he had a fair amount to say about building a stadium at Long Acres and sort of all that goes into that. And we talked about, you know, the challenges and opportunities at Lumen Field
00:09:55
Speaker
I honestly don't have a better sense of where that's going to go. I think until, until we know otherwise, it feels like the most likely outcome is that the Sounders figure out a way to stay at Loom and Field. And I think that's probably my preferred outcome. Yeah.
00:10:14
Speaker
But I can also appreciate why they need, why they feel like they need to explore this possibility.
Stadium Debate: Lumen Field vs. Long Acres
00:10:20
Speaker
And they would, and frankly, they would be doing a disservice. I will say that I think they'd be doing themselves a disservice. I think they'd be doing the legacy of the club a disservice if they didn't at least
00:10:34
Speaker
go through a proper vetting process of, can this work? Is there a way that we can build something good enough to overcome the challenges? And realistically, how do we go about tackling those challenges? That's a good thought exercise. And who knows, maybe I'll be proven
00:10:59
Speaker
wrong and that's a better option but i still think. You're gonna have a lot you have a big hill to climb to improve on lumenfield if only the because of location it's such a perfect location yeah. You know they often say that.
00:11:17
Speaker
You know, real estate's about location, location, location. And that's what Loom & Field has. And it would feel, it's going to take a lot, I think, for the sounders to convince themselves that they need to, you know, spend probably close to a billion dollars. Let's not forget. Right. Yeah. That's what stadiums cost these days.
00:11:40
Speaker
And, uh, speaking of which, did you see that FC Charlotte Charlotte FC is talking about doing an $800 million renovation to bank of America stadium? Well, I guess Charlotte FC isn't doing it. It's the Carolina Panthers, but they're playing on doing an 800,000.
00:11:58
Speaker
$800 million renovation and effectively all they're doing is wrapping the stadium. They're not putting a roof on it. They're I mean, they're I assume they're gonna put better, you know, they'll put video boards and stuff, but it's basically the same stadium with like a with a new wrapper. Yeah, it's pretty it's pretty nuts. I mean, I think in a lot of ways that is better than
00:12:21
Speaker
tearing it down and I'm pro reusing as much as we can. Which is a lot of money. It's an insane amount of money. And they're not even putting a roof on it, which is crazy to me. Yeah, I mean, it gets pretty hot there in North Carolina. I would think every stadium in the world would do better with a canopy type of roof. Yeah, you would think so. Yeah, it's pretty nuts.
00:12:50
Speaker
Um, it's definitely eye opening, you know, when you see these projects and, and like, I think a sounders solely sounders specific stadium would, would be. I mean, by the hell, by the time they get along around a building and it'd probably be more than that, but you know, it's not going to be as extensive as an NFL stadium, but it's also going to be a greenfield development and, uh, that's going to add costs. So, um, it's pretty crazy. I.
00:13:16
Speaker
I wouldn't want to be making the decisions. I think the analysis would be interesting, but I would not want to be the one in charge of deciding what to do with the analysis because it's, you know, we don't need to get too deep into it, but there are a lot of pluses and there are a lot of minuses and that's a tough needle to thread, I think. It is. I will say one thing I wish they had done just from a
00:13:45
Speaker
I mean, frankly, from a content perspective, for my selfish reasons, it's like, but if you're going to talk about it, like release the renderings, there's, you know, they gotta be have renderings out there, right? Because it's like, it's makes it so much easier for, I think, a fan to wrap their mind around like what this could be, if they can see the vision. Right. And, and, you know, they're, they're pitching this idea that it's, because right now you look at,
00:14:09
Speaker
you know, we're going down a rabbit hole a little bit here, but you look at you're looking at long acres. And long acres is a, you know, what was the term that the urbanist use? It's a lightly used semi industrial, you know, office park, essentially. And it's hard to envision that being a anything like a neighborhood or a gathering place or anything. It's just hard to. Yeah.
00:14:37
Speaker
imagine it being anything, but you know, the idea is they're going to build 3000 apartments there, there's going to be, you know, presumably restaurants and music, there's gonna be a music venue. That's another thing Adrian talked about. And
00:14:52
Speaker
You know, once you start putting all that stuff in there, maybe that changed it. But then if you plot, but you show us where the stadium is going to be, and you show us that roof, and you show us 30,000 fans or whatever packed into this, you know, one of the biggest soccer-specific stadiums in the United States. And I don't know, you could maybe get people excited, but that's the thing, is they're eight years out at best. You don't want to burn too brightly, too early.
00:15:19
Speaker
And a lot of this is why I feel like the most likely explanation for them making noise about the stadium is a game theory type deal, where you have to think that when they bought Long Acres, there were all these detailed plans, none of them included a stadium.
00:15:36
Speaker
Like it wasn't talked about, it wasn't mentioned. People speculated about it, right? But you feel like if it were a possibility, they would have mentioned like a serious possibility they were strongly considering. They would have at least dropped a hint or mentioned a possibility, right? And so I think it's not a shock that we started hearing rumblings of this around the same time that we started hearing similar rumblings that they were having some frustrations with first and goal.
00:16:01
Speaker
I think there's a direct relationship. That doesn't mean that they're not seriously considering these things and running the numbers. Like you said, they would be remiss if they didn't do it. It would just be foolish not to do it as opposed as I am to the idea. They owe it to themselves as a club, as a business entity, whatever. They have a lot of real estate in an area that's relatively attractive, I would imagine, for some kinds of development. If they're not going to use it to build a stadium,
00:16:31
Speaker
Probably better to figure that out sooner than later so you can figure out what you want to do with that investment. Interesting stuff in there. I would say if you are a listener of this podcast and you haven't listened to that interview, I think you would probably find it interesting and I would suggest going to go listen to it.
00:16:50
Speaker
With all that said, this is a mailbag episode, Aaron. It is, yeah. Why don't we go ahead and start answering some mailbag questions? Sounds good. This first one is from Boomstick315, and I will mention that it was asked before the RSL game. I still think the spirit of the question holds true though, so we'll go ahead and ask it. The Sounders have been on a pretty good run, short of winning a trophy.
Evaluating Sounders' Season Performance
00:17:12
Speaker
would the rest of the season have to go for the club's assessment of the squads who have been correct? As in really, it really was the injuries and some bad luck that got the season off to such a bad start. I, for once, I don't know that the RSL game changes the tenor of the question much. Like it's still, I think you could still talk yourself into a pretty good, this being a pretty good run. You know, there were four, one and four across all competitions in their last nine. That's not as good as we want them to be. But if you had told me,
00:17:41
Speaker
a month ago that they were going to go for one and four in this stretch and not told me where the wins came from. And that they were still alive in the open cup, I think I would have probably taken that. But where does this team need to get in order to feel like their assessment was correct? I think they got to be top four in the West. Yeah. They got to compete for a trophy.
00:18:08
Speaker
And, you know, that's those are both attainable things. If they win the Open Cup, that won't really color their assessment of the roster. I don't think that's a almost separate discussion. But if they win the Open Cup, it's going to feel like a reasonably successful season right just right there. And if they finish top four in the West. I don't know, like I think that would prove their their calculations correct.
00:18:38
Speaker
Yeah, I think the biggest thing for me would be that they have to start. They don't have to become like a crazy offensive juggernaut, but they have to start scoring goals consistently. It would be nice. But I think that they have to be a little better than I think fourth worst in MLS in terms of goals scored somewhere in there. Yeah. Because the whole.
00:19:04
Speaker
The whole equation, right? Even when talking about the downside of the team was they're not going to set the world on fire, but they'll score enough goals to be respectable offensively. And they have not done that. And I think obviously missing De La Vega is a huge part of that. Missing Chiu has been a part of it. But I do think that they need to start getting some goals from the guys they have.
00:19:30
Speaker
even before the summer window, I think, for me to think that they didn't miss something pretty major with the attack. You know, it's a crazy thing. I'm just realizing this now. Charlotte FC is
00:19:46
Speaker
says seven wins from 18 goals scored in 18 goals allowed. The Sounders have four wins from 19 goals scored in 19 allowed. It is kind of a weird it's been a weird
00:20:04
Speaker
I still think that, and this is kind of, I think at the heart of the question, to some degree, the Sounders have not been good. I don't think anybody is arguing that the Sounders have been good. They have been holaciously unlucky. And a team like Charlotte has been quite lucky. And I think those things can both be true, right? I think that those are totally reasonable positions.
00:20:28
Speaker
All right, this is from Ty. Has Seattle ever won after a Rusnak free kick goal? He should stop scoring them. Yeah, I can't. I can't recall a game where they did. They may have. I think he only has one other goal and that was the Orlando game.
00:20:50
Speaker
that they lost 3-2 famously on a late goal. He's a good, he's pretty good from dead ball situations, but I definitely don't think of him as a, he's not Andreas Evanchic, right? Like, or Nico Ledero. No, he might have one other one. Well, they're not showing up in whose squad, so. Well, phooey. All right, well. Who do you give up? We're gonna say, fast forward, we're now here. I think the answer is no. That's what I think the answer is.
00:21:20
Speaker
Yeah, I think so. It's spiritually no. It's spiritually no. There you go. Yeah. All right. All right. Next one is from Scott Chupac. How much of the fans malaise has been specifically due to how boring and disappointing it has been to attend Sounders home games the last couple of seasons as opposed to the team actually being bad?
00:21:48
Speaker
I think a lot. I actually think a lot. I think that the performance at home, specifically the lack of goals at home is the maybe number one culprit for the malaise because so many fans have gone to games and gone home frustrated or unimpressed or whatever.
00:22:15
Speaker
I think one of the things that drives me a little bit crazy is when people say they've been bad since they won the Champions League. First of all, they were actually pretty good right after Champions League. And it's funny to go back and think about this because I was listening to Extra Time today and they were talking about how, well, the crew aren't going to have this. The crew aren't going to have a post CCL slump because
00:22:45
Speaker
they're already really high up in the table or whatever. They're fourth in the table. This is not a team that's gonna collapse. That's exactly what we were saying in 2022. I don't know if people remember this, but at one point, the Sounders were very much in the supporter shield race up until they weren't, which was like... If you look at what their record was after that win,
00:23:14
Speaker
against Toronto, which was almost the exact midway point of the season, but more importantly was like two whole months after they won Champions League, like right after they win Champions League, they go win, win, loss, win, win, draw, win, loss, win. Yeah.
00:23:35
Speaker
Like they were flying. Yeah, they were great coming. I mean, we, I remember talking on this show about how clear it was that their struggles were related to CCL. Yeah. They would say after that, that win against Toronto, they were two, three, four, five, six, eight.
00:23:56
Speaker
eight, six and three or something like that. They and I remember at one point saying something along the lines of I would be more surprised if they missed the playoffs than if they win the support shield. I thought they were much more likely to win the support. Like they weren't totally in the support shield race, but they were close enough to the sport show race that it seemed like a reasonable. Like goal.
00:24:22
Speaker
Yeah. And they, they obviously miss the play. They fell apart. They completely fell apart from that point forward. They only won five more games the rest of the season and it was, they fell apart, but I just think it's, it's sometimes interesting to remember that the center's season did not start. It's, it's interesting. It's worth reminding everyone. The season did not start to fall apart as soon as they won champions league, but they actually looked really good coming, coming out of champions league. Yeah.
00:24:57
Speaker
2023, right? Yes, there was a long, bad stretch in the middle. Right. But their overall were pretty decent. Right. And the first, I think, eight games until the Portland game, they were the best MLS team I've ever seen. And that was a long time ago. I'm not saying that that means that they're going to get back to that. But they were scoring goals like crazy. I think that they had like a plus 15 goal difference in seven games or something like that.
00:25:15
Speaker
Absolutely. And I think also,
00:25:25
Speaker
They, their defense was elite. They were scoring goals like crazy. And that was, you know, more recently than the CCL. So I'm, I'm with you. I know it's, it seems pedantic, but. Well, yeah, it's yeah. Through the seven at the seven at game seven of last year, they had outscored their opponents. Uh, 15 to three.
00:25:56
Speaker
Okay. So plus 12 through seven games. They were, they were dominant. They were, they were looking like a, like one of the best teams in MLS history. And they obviously didn't finish quite that strongly, but.
00:26:14
Speaker
There was a lot going right. There's a lot going right. And and so, yeah, I tend to think that the reason that we think the centers have been bad is a lot more to do with their home performance than anything else, frankly. Yeah. And I think their home performance and also the way that they have won games.
Home Performance and Fan Satisfaction
00:26:35
Speaker
is not the way necessarily people wanna win games, which I totally get. The aesthetics are soccer's entertainment, right? And when you're not kind of boring soccering your way to the supporter shield or MLS cup, it's not quite as cute. And the Sounders didn't necessarily look like they were gonna do that until
00:27:01
Speaker
pretty late in the season last year. So I get it. Like, I think they're playing. And I don't want to, I'm not offering this as like, people are wrong for saying that they, I'm not so much saying that. I just think that the Malays, they've been really bad at home, all things considered. And I think that's more what I want to focus on is that their home performances have been horrible relative to the rest of their, everything else they've been doing. And they have one home win this year. They've scored in,
00:27:33
Speaker
three of seven games. They've won eight of their last, let's see, they played seven at home this year. So eight of their last 24 at home.
00:27:45
Speaker
Yeah, it's not good. That's, that's really bad. Yeah. I mean, I, I, for sure. And that's going to have an effect and that's going to like, that's, that's what most people's experiences is watching this team at home. Yeah. And if you're consistently delivering a bad product, people are going to get frustrated. Yep.
00:28:08
Speaker
All right, this is, I don't know if you really want to answer this, but I'll ask it anyway. The list wants to know, why has Craig not had a press conference? Right now it feels like he is hiding and does not want to face the music. I know this is not a valid point, but feelings don't need to be valid to be real. Yeah, I mean, I'll leave the maybe more technical explanation for you. But I do agree with the last point that feelings don't need to be valid to be real. I think that
00:28:38
Speaker
There were frustrations at times with Garth for being less available during difficult times, but he also had a track record. I think during 2016, before the Nico signing, when things were pretty rough, there were people that wanted Garth fired and were furious that he hadn't spoke more and that he wasn't giving answers to questions that people wanted to hear. So it's not like it's unprecedented, but
00:29:08
Speaker
I think that the lack of track record with the Sounders was probably part of that. I think for a lot of Sounders fans, they went from the heights of 2014 to a good but not great season in 2015 to looking like they were going to miss the playoffs, Ziggy getting fired from the time Garth showed up. And then obviously he
00:29:34
Speaker
showed people why that he deserved a little bit more benefit of the doubt. Craig has not done that. I've said on here before that I don't put a ton of blame on Craig Weibel for the state of the roster and for the struggles the Sounders are having right now, just because I think his hands were tied in a lot of ways. I think a lot of the decisions he's made that have turned out poorly have been defensible and reasonable, and he's just had some pretty bad luck.
00:30:00
Speaker
But I do think that it is frustrating that it doesn't seem like we hear from him a lot. That being said, there is a, I think, four-part interview series that Jackson Feltz is doing with him that's airing in parts currently on KJR, correct?
00:30:19
Speaker
Yeah, that's that's true. Yeah, they I'm not gonna yes, that is true. That interview was conducted at this point, a month ago, I want to say. And and frankly, I've been I've been trying to get like, I don't have a good answer for why he hasn't held a press conference. I have been
00:30:40
Speaker
kind of trying to get an interview with Craig, I think I have one soon. So that's different than a press conference. And I don't know, I guess the answer to why he hasn't had a press conference, the last time, I mean, he did talk after the Ariaga trade. And traditionally, GMs don't have press conferences unless there's something specifically to talk about.
00:31:06
Speaker
And so I don't necessarily blame them for not having a press conference.
00:31:11
Speaker
And I suppose I might be somewhat to blame too, in terms of me not getting access to Craig because every, I've never, I haven't been really pushing it that hard in part because every time, like it only gets, there's only more things to talk about by waiting, right? And so I have this kind of running list of things I want to talk to about them. And I suppose at some point the list becomes too long and I'll never get to everything I want to talk to them about.
00:31:39
Speaker
but hopefully we're gonna get to him soon. I don't blame anyone for feeling this way.
00:31:46
Speaker
I don't even know if it's an invalid reason. I think it's fair to be frustrated. People are frustrated with the performance and they want to hear from the people who made the decisions that put them here. Yeah. And that's a perfectly valid thing to want. I'm not trying to tell anyone they shouldn't want that. I want to talk to him too. I don't know how many good answers he has right now, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't hear from him. Right. Yep.
00:32:12
Speaker
Alright, next one is from SounderPilot. Ever since the CCL win, the offense has been lacking. This also coincided with Nico's regression and eventual departure. Was Nico the glue that was holding the offense together and without that type of player, are current players incapable of mounting an effective
Impact of Nico's Departure on Offense
00:32:26
Speaker
offense? It sure seems that way. I don't think it's entirely unfair.
00:32:32
Speaker
Uh, accusation or conclusion. I do think up until last year, a lot of this team was sort of give, let Nico cook was sort of the offense. I think last year, part of why I was so. I was more bullish on their performance last year than a lot of people was because they.
00:32:53
Speaker
did a lot of work to move away from. We are just a, our offense is effectively just get the ball to the creative guys and let the creative guys make something happen. And last year there seemed to be a little bit more of a system and they've kept to that system. They just have not performed as well with it. I was expecting them to take more of a step forward this year within that system. And that does not seem to have happened in part because
00:33:20
Speaker
I think a lot of the pieces that they needed to raise that bar have not been able to do that for one reason or another. I think Jordan has had somewhat of a regression. Christian has not come back to his pre-injury self yet. Ciao Paolo is not the player that he was at one point. Raul Rui Diaz, we don't necessarily need to get into this too deeply because we've already done this a few times. Our feelings on Raul as a
00:33:47
Speaker
starting number nine should be well known at this point. You can kind of go down that list and no one has really, Albert Rusnak has not been, has not taken nearly as big of a step forward as I thought he would be. So I don't, but I don't, I don't think it is the, I don't think the system, I am, I am not as down on the system as much as I am.
00:34:10
Speaker
like you're always gonna be relying on your best players to be, to perform at a certain level in order for the team to reach a certain level. And I don't know, I just don't, I don't see that right now. I don't think this is, I think this is more a personnel problem than a system problem. Yeah, I think I generally agree. I think that there are things that the sounders could be doing tactically to
00:34:38
Speaker
take better advantage of the talent that they do have and suit the players that they do have a little bit better. But I think ultimately that they have to get better performances, especially from their creative players and their attacking players. I have no faults with the Sounders, how they've done in possession or defensively. It's just the final third that's been the problem.
00:35:03
Speaker
And part of the issue is that soccer is a holistic game. If you change the attacking system, you're also changing the defensive system. You're changing the way you approach possession and how the midfield is supposed to do things. It's very fluid.
00:35:19
Speaker
And I understand why, when they've had so much success in two-thirds of the game, why they don't want to do anything too drastic to affect the final third of the game, literally and figuratively. It's a tough issue to figure out, obviously, because it's been the better part of calendar year now, trying to figure it out.
00:35:44
Speaker
I don't think that the amount of regression we've seen and underachievement that we've seen was reasonable to expect by the coaching staff or by the
00:35:54
Speaker
you know, by the front office. And I'll add, in case it wasn't clear, it's not that I think that the coaches are doing a perfect job. I just think that the coaches' issues, the issues I have more with the coaches is their personnel selection than the tactical approach.
00:36:14
Speaker
Right. And I think too, there's like, there's nuance within tactical systems, right? The overall system, I think, couldn't be plenty successful. I think that they they can have success playing the way that they are trying to play. But there are elements of it that they're not doing well. And, and I think, yeah, that it's that kind of
Loyalty's Impact on Team Performance
00:36:33
Speaker
stuff. That's those are the finer points of coaching anyway, right? Like,
00:36:37
Speaker
saying go out there and play 4-3-3 and do it possession, do that, or do counter-attacking, that's the easy part, right? It's figuring out how to effectively do that that's difficult. All right, this is from Ken W. Could loyalty be our Achilles heel? Is Brian too loyal to his players slash is ownership perhaps too loyal to our coaching staff? I think we've talked about Brian's proclivities in this department before, and I think it's
00:37:07
Speaker
I think it's reasonable to say that we both feel like maybe that's one of his shortcomings. Um, I'll definitely say it for myself. Uh, I think it, but I think it's a very common shortcut. Yeah. I mean, I think, yeah, I would agree. I think there is some, there's some element to that. I definitely think Brian is a little too loyal. I, I think maybe Adrian is, is maybe two. I, I think it's it we've, again, we've talked about this before, but I think it's, it's hard to parse.
00:37:36
Speaker
where building a club culture becomes too loyal. Like part of building a club culture is having people from the club continuing to
00:37:48
Speaker
populate positions within the club, right? And you can over index there though, because you do need some fresh voices. And if you look around the front office, there's a lot of people who came in, who had a connection for one reason or another. And that's part of what makes the sounders feel different than every other club in the country, frankly.
00:38:08
Speaker
But it can also be, you know, you need to you still need to refresh that. And I, I've started to come around on the idea that maybe the biggest problem with the sounder's roster right now is not that the individual parts are bad. It's that that equation has been thrown off that there's not been enough new
00:38:29
Speaker
blood injected into the team at the top of the roster. Like if you look at the roster right now and you compare it to the roster that won the 2022 Champions League, virtually everyone from that game is still on the team. Yeah. Except for basically Javier Arriaga. Yeah. But like the only new starters, Jackson Reagan,
00:38:53
Speaker
He was on that team, Obed Vargas. He was on that. He played a significant role in that, in that game. You can kind of go down and I, you know, Nico Lidero is the only real significant departure from that team.
00:39:07
Speaker
And it's not that those all those players are bad now. But I just think that there's some kind of hard to quantify element of you just sort of need you need new players that are doing and that's what Pedro de la Vega was supposed to be this year. I'll know. Yeah. And that just hasn't worked out for one reason or another. But
00:39:29
Speaker
I was talking to a friend of mine that I went to the RSL game with before the game on the way there, and he's a season ticket holder, but he goes to far fewer games than he used to. And we were kind of talking about that, about how it's not just that they've been losing, it's not just that they've been losing at home, it's not even just that they've been bad, it's all the same guys.
00:39:50
Speaker
It's the same team we've been watching, but it's guys that I want to love who are driving me insane. That's just so much worse than just being the normal kind of bad. It's so frustrating. I don't know that it's too loyal necessarily, but I think
00:40:17
Speaker
There's something in that. There's something to be said for New Blood. There's something to be said for changing things up for the sake of doing it. And I think if there's any kind of fear in the organization that we don't want to treat our legends this way, you know,
00:40:40
Speaker
It's tough. It's a tough line to tow, but lots of clubs have had to make painful decisions about legendary players and coaches. And they've been able to maintain those relationships. And I think the Sounders would be able to do it as well. That doesn't mean I'm saying that Adrian has not fired Brian purely because of loyalty. I'm not sure I think firing Brian is the right decision either. I think that anytime things get bad,
00:41:06
Speaker
people just assume, well, if you change the coach, it'll be fine, right? And I don't think that's the case. But I do think Brian has probably lasted longer here than he would at a lot of other clubs. Good, better and different. Like, I think that's probably the case. I mean, I also think with Brian, especially, it's hard, it's hard to make an honest assessment too, because
00:41:29
Speaker
There's not a lot of coaches who have won as much as he has won. And that does buy you a lot of the reality is that does buy you a lot of goodwill. That's just how it is. Like you win two MLS cups and a CCL trophy. You know, basically you're talking about the only other coach that's done anything close to that is Bruce Arena. Yeah. And Bruce Arena wasn't getting fired a whole lot either. Right. Yeah.
00:41:58
Speaker
Yeah. And I mean, the galaxy had some seasons where they were this bad for the first chunk of the season. Yeah. So.
00:42:16
Speaker
All right, next one is from Interpiercing and we've covered some of this, but I think there's also some different angles to it that could be interesting. For the last year and a half, the Sounders have been mostly sustained by road game points. From 2023 to now, Seattle is seventh worst in league on home points for game. This was before the RSL game, so I'm assuming that's either stayed static or gone down. Five of the six coaches below them lost their jobs in that time, only Vermees survived and who knows for how much longer.
00:42:42
Speaker
He will be coaching and supporting KC long after I am dead in the ground. The team's home goal scoring has been woeful for over a year now, and the worst in the league over the last 12 months. Despite a second place finish last season, attendance continues to decline to alarming levels. Road points may push the team up to the standings, but home failures kill attendance revenue.
00:43:02
Speaker
Seems like ownership is feeling that lack of revenue. At what point does achieving playoff position matter less than a roster and home style that is actively hemorrhaging customers? Are Brian or Craig vulnerable if it does not improve? That's an interesting question. Essentially, what he's asking is have the set, he's
00:43:21
Speaker
If I were to sum up, he's basically illustrating how bad the Sounders have been at home and it's been really bad, at least from a entertainment value perspective. And can your home form specifically get you fired? I don't know. That's a good it's it's a relevant question. I suspect not. I suspect there is
00:43:44
Speaker
If the Sounders somehow keep winning enough road games that their home performance is rendered less important, I doubt that's going to get Brian fired. I doubt that's going to get Craig fired. But it's an interesting conundrum because you're right. It's not as simple as your total points. There is something to be said about entertaining your home fans.
00:44:08
Speaker
and the revenue that you lose when your fans aren't entertained and they don't feel like it's a good product. And those are all totally relevant questions. But if it's a simple question of, is that going to get Brian or Craig fired? I don't think it is. I think they're going to be judged on a
00:44:28
Speaker
Like I, I think that a lot of people feel like the home performances are a fluke because it doesn't feel like there's a good explanation. Why have they been so much worse? Why does it seem like they've been so much worse at home than they have been on the road? And I don't know. I don't know what the answer to that is. I don't know how you solve for that. Like I've never, I'm not sure that there's a good example of a team seeming having such.
00:44:51
Speaker
significant struggles to score at home, but not being nearly there's a lot of teams have struggled at home. They're usually just bad teams. And that's clearly not the case here. Like sounders are not just a objective objectively bad team anywhere they could play. They seem they do seem to be worse at home. And I don't have a good answer for that. Yeah, there are definitely teams who
00:45:15
Speaker
If you're a very good team and teams like to employ a low block against you at home and just try to play for the point, maybe the drop off from your home performance to your road performance isn't going to be as high. I think we've seen sounder teams like that before where they were very, very good at home, very, very good on the road, but not quite as elite as you would like them to be at home because of the way things played against them. This level of complete impotence at home versus
00:45:43
Speaker
I think a pretty decent team away is, I don't want to say like a complete fluke, but the degree to which it persists, I think is not purely explainable by process or performance. Right. I mean, they had more, more road points, I think last year than home points. That's just not. Yeah. It's, it's bizarre. It's bizarre. I mean, I think that they are.
00:46:12
Speaker
uniquely vulnerable to certain tactical setups than some other teams. But I think a lot of that is
00:46:25
Speaker
just the, you know, not to get back to robo, but a lot of that is just complete lack of scoring from their, from their forward position. So I don't know, it's, I definitely think that you're right, that it's, it's not going to be the criteria on which
00:46:44
Speaker
Schmetzer or Weibel are judged, but I could see it feeding in so much too fan dissatisfaction that it sort of indirectly becomes, you know, part of an eventual parting of ways.
00:46:58
Speaker
Yeah. Yeah. It's an interesting, it's an interesting thought process, thought exercise. This is from bottle. Have you spent any time watching Nico at Orlando? I still like rooting for him in the few games I've watched. I'm always happy when he is involved in Orlando, scoring a goal. Any thoughts on his playing style over there or how he's doing.
00:47:16
Speaker
I haven't watched a ton of him. I've watched a little bit. I've watched any time the highlights pop up. I'll definitely watch him. You know, what I have seen and just looking at the numbers, he seems like he's pretty much the player he was last year, which
00:47:32
Speaker
I'm not saying that the Sounders should have resigned him or that it was a mistake to let him go, but he would be nice to have on this team right now. I think it's fair to say, but he's certainly not setting the world on fire. I mean, he scored one goal. He's got five assists. I think it's 2023 Nico. He's probably got another
00:47:54
Speaker
another year like that and I would guess, I don't know. Certainly not the player he was at one point in time. But yeah, I'm happy he's having success. I do. I mean, I will say I wish that they could have found a way to bring him back. I don't know exactly the number he's on in Orlando, but I think I would have been okay with it here.
Nico's Performance Reflections
00:48:16
Speaker
I think like 800 or something like that. Yeah, that would be fine. But I also don't, I think that the approach the sounders took to that situation was the right one of just saying, look, we got to figure out where we're at before we have those conversations. And once they made that decision, it just wasn't happening. Yeah, I mean, I think the most interesting thing about him is the year this year is he started off sort of not really as a automatic starter and he came off the bench.
00:48:44
Speaker
in roughly half of his first 10 or so appearances, but he's consistently starting now and he's consistently going close to 90 minutes. So and in what's funny is his first and I guess it's also worth noting that he's got five assists.
00:49:04
Speaker
They come in two games. So, and what, one of, apparently one of them came off the bench where he only played 18 minutes and picked up two assists. So it's been kind of a funny season for him. I would not say that he's a player who would necessarily, like, I don't know that the sounders are necessarily better right now. And, and frankly, even if they were marginally better, I don't know if they are better off long-term if you stuck around.
00:49:30
Speaker
I'm glad that he's doing well. I don't have any animosity toward, like I don't begrudge him any of his success, but I also am not pining for his return. Right. I think that if the Sounders were having anything unlike the season they're having, I wouldn't even have said that as a joke, you know, but this next one is from the Joshua.
Open Cup: Redemption Opportunity
00:49:52
Speaker
If they, if the Sounders won the open cup, would the vibes change? If they won the open cup, would that be considered a successful season?
00:50:00
Speaker
The vibes would change, I think, I think that we would I think there would be a lot of people really like, OK, so let's just tease this out. So they win. They would have to beat Sacramento coming up. And then and that's on July 9th, and then they would host. Presumably LFC at Starfire, if they win, if they beat LFC at Starfire, that alone.
00:50:28
Speaker
the vibes will be immaculate. There's no scenario where they beat LAFC at Starfire and it won't feel like one of the great
00:50:38
Speaker
like you'll feel like you had to have been there kind of thing again this is assuming like we're going on the thought process of like assuming that they win this thing and then they have the final that final might well be played at lumen field it could have 40,000 they might have 40,000 people there i don't know 35 40,000 people will be it'll be allowed
00:51:00
Speaker
fun environment if they, yes, the vibes will be a lot better. Like there's no, if they, again, if we're assuming they win, the vibes will improve. Yes. They could have lost, even if they lose every game in between, every league game in between those two things, the vibes will be better than they are right now because winning trophies feels fucking awesome. Yep. And that's what this club is about. Okay. Will that make it a successful season?
00:51:31
Speaker
I don't know. I don't think it automatically makes it to successful, Susan. Yeah, that's where I'm at. The thing about a cup run is that it's fun. It's worth celebrating on its own merits. And then it ends. And then it ends. And it's an extremely small part of a much longer season. And so, yeah, it's a blast. I will feel great if they win the cup. Practically, it'll be great to guarantee Champions League.
00:52:01
Speaker
I think still, right? That's that hasn't changed yet. Yeah. But I think if they finish 10th and when you are soaking cup, it's really hard for me to say that's a successful season. Because the thing that I mean, ultimately, the thing that matters is the league and and you don't get the playoffs. Yeah, you can't it.
00:52:26
Speaker
Like winning champions league is the biggest trophy you can win. And you can call that a successful season, even if you don't make the playoffs because it's the biggest trophy you can win. Yes, basically. Yes. The open cup is not the biggest trophy you can win. I think you can make a pretty valid argument. That is the fourth or fifth most, you know, biggest trophy you can win and.
00:52:48
Speaker
If you don't make the playoffs, if you if you win open cup and don't make the playoffs, it's going to feel like not like you're going to have a really hard time convincing anyone. Like it doesn't matter if I if I call it a successful season, no one will consider it a successful season. Right. Nobody when they're nobody that covers the league is going to say that the Sounders have a good year. No fan. I don't think no fan fan that had to sit through the rest of the crappy season is going to call it a successful season.
00:53:16
Speaker
No, I think if the Sounders win the U.S. Open Cup and also go on a run and end up finishing fourth or fifth in the West. Yeah, different. Whereas if they do that now, I don't know that I feel as great about the season. Right. But if they can do that while also winning a trophy. Yeah, that's sure. So it raises the, you know, it gives you like 15 percent on the progress bar to successful season, I would say, which is a pretty good chunk. But, you know, yeah.
00:53:47
Speaker
All right. Yep. This one's yours. Sorry. Okay. So I'm going to go to G on E wants to know our, what are the reasonable expectations for the next two signing windows? The title really says it all, but given the context that there are only two more signing windows before the club woke up, what should we expect to see from these two windows? The team is currently constructed, albeit without Pedro de la Vega has looked second best in the majority of their matches thus far.
00:54:13
Speaker
Given the increased level of the competition that needs to be some turnover and acquisition to raise the level of the team, trying to make all the changes necessary in one window seems like a monumental task and leaves little room for contingency planning. At the event, something going wrong, curious to improve, seem to be the 9-10-6. JP really hasn't looked back since coming back or right wing slash wing back. I just will say, I'll let you ask the question. I think I broadly agree with what this person is saying.
00:54:41
Speaker
Yeah, so the nine I think is obvious. I think that I would like to get Jordan enough games there before they make that signing just to see. And I don't think he's had enough games there.
00:55:00
Speaker
Well, he said he he played a couple of games early this year. Not really. He was playing with Raul as the 10. Yes. Or whatever is a two striker set up. And he has, you know, he scored. I actually looked at this earlier today. I think he scored 26 goals as a striker and MLS. So it's not like he doesn't have a little bit of track record there, but I digress.
00:55:24
Speaker
I think that the pressure is there to replace our wool with another nine and I don't have any serious concerns with that. I think JP has not been the same player since he came back, but he's still a very good MLS midfielder. But I do think it's time to replace him. I think that one of the things that
00:55:47
Speaker
we have learned over the last few years is that there's a lot of risk in extending guys in that age range. And I will defend their decision to do it in that context. In the situation they were in at that time, I think it was the right decision, even if it hurts now. But they are not in the same situation. They are not playing for a CCL title. And so I think it's just time to make some of those difficult decisions.
00:56:13
Speaker
Um, the one that I'm, and maybe this is just pedantry, I'm not convinced that the Sounders need a 10. I think that the idea is that Pedro de la Vega is the 10. And I think he has to be given the opportunity to fill that role. Um, I think that, you know, he's not going to line up as an attacking midfielder where Nico did and play that way. But I think he's, he's the primary creative force. That's the idea of him.
00:56:36
Speaker
Um, so I wouldn't, you know, I, I definitely, I think another eight would probably be good. You know, a more creative midfielder. That's not necessarily like a center attacking midfielder. Um, but I think I generally agree. Um, I think I kind of want to see how Reed Baker Whiting, uh, fits in before we talk too much about fullbacks.
00:57:02
Speaker
So yeah, um, and yeah, I think they need to do that or I think they need to do all those things over the next two windows. Um, I think it's feasible. They make one of those signings in the summer and I don't expect either one to be a DP signing unless something dramatic changes, but I wouldn't be shocked to see them either bring in a six or, you know, another tan level midfield player. Um, I kind of want to see a 10 CO with the six too. I just like.
Upcoming Signing Window Priorities
00:57:31
Speaker
There is a part of me who thinks it could in some ways be a blessing in disguise if all the wheels come off and they just kind of try to figure out what they have in some guys before they make a big time. Yeah, I wouldn't mind seeing Josh and Obed get an extended run together as a defensive midfield bearing. Yeah.
00:57:51
Speaker
Anyway, but I do, I think generally they need to make three signings that are going to be players you expect to start. At least one needs to be a DP signing. And, you know, I think one of the others needs to be a TAM signing and, and, uh, yeah, they all need to be impact players. And if, if, and if they're not bringing a real snack back, they probably need to make four signings.
00:58:21
Speaker
Duh.
00:58:23
Speaker
All right, first one was from Boomstick3, 315. Last one's also from Boomstick3, 315. And it's not about the sounders. We'll go out on a note not talking about sounders. Unlike other MLS versus La Liga MX defeats, the crew are much bigger spenders compared to Pachuca or elements of the cap system other than raw spending holding MLS back. It's just the nature of a knockout game or other other places MLS is falling short that don't get as much attention. There is some added context.
00:58:52
Speaker
Most estimates put the crew at 40 to 50% higher in terms of wage spending. And then also the crew spend a lot more in the transfer market than Petruca, who tend to sell rather than buy. Yeah. So this is one of those, those losses that sort of turns the narrative on its head, which is it's not as simple as spending stupid. That's sort of been the, that's sort of been the, the
00:59:20
Speaker
the calling card, the explanation that magically dismisses MLS's struggles with league hammock keys. And I think what Pachuca, this loss illustrates is that it's not as simple as simply as just being outspent. Now Monterey spends a lot more than MLS teams. Tigris spends more than MLS teams. America spends more.
00:59:47
Speaker
there are big spending teams in Mexico, but and they are good. They're very good teams. But that's not the only problem. The other problem is that Mexico still has a much more robust at its best like their best talent developers, which is what
01:00:09
Speaker
Pachuca is, are still producing players at high level players at a better clip than MLS teams. They are better at identifying sort of like, I think they have a better scouting apparatus in South America. And they're doing a better job of finding sort of undervalued assets in South America. I don't know that Pachuca is super indicative of the
01:00:38
Speaker
Mexican club system as a whole like they they have seemed to punch way above their weight consistently in Mexico Yeah, so I don't know that this this
01:00:50
Speaker
particular loss does not fall quite as neatly into the larger narrative. And it's funny because the crew beat the big spending teams they played. And then they got tripped up by a kind of lower spending team. I don't know that I'm not sure what the takeaway from that like I don't know how you
01:01:08
Speaker
You fix that. Like sometimes, I think this is more of one of those things where because MLS has not done a good job of competing dollar for dollar, there are times where there's exceptions that sort of like throw everything out the window. I don't, I don't think this one though is, is one that you can take away. Like Petrucci is just a really, does the stuff they do well better than anyone else in the continent.
01:01:37
Speaker
Yeah, they're, they're a model club in a lot of ways, um, for, I think for any, you know, any league, um,
01:01:44
Speaker
But yeah, I generally agree. Like, I think that I would add, because I don't think you touched on this, I think the distribution of salary is a key thing. I would be shocked if anybody, Pachuca has on their team is making like a DP level wage. Right. But everybody's making, you know, TAM level wages, right? And I do think that that matters.
01:02:12
Speaker
But yeah, I think an MLS team that stocks their team with really good Academy products and has a couple of veterans and they could have that same model and do pretty well. I mean, in a competition like this. This is not the most up-to-date information. This is from last year. But if you look at Pachuca's salaries, you have
01:02:43
Speaker
three guys that are making about, or four players that are making roughly a million dollars, and then a few more that are making, you know, 800 to 900,000. But it looks, honestly, it looks a lot like a low spending MLS team roster. Like it's not, like there's nothing on here that says that an MLS team could not structure their roster exactly like this. But what they're, you know, but they're also good at picking and choosing which
01:03:13
Speaker
where to spend money and it's a good team. They're just really well run. I think also worth noting too, when the Sounders played Pumas, it's not like there wasn't really that much of a salary discrepancy. I know we did the math at the time, but I think they were roughly even in terms of what they were spending on their roster.
01:03:39
Speaker
Um, yeah, we were, we actually had a more valuable roster. I think we may have actually, I don't know if I ever actually compared the actual roster spend, but for sure the sounders spent or had their, their like transfer marked value was, was higher. Right. And I think, uh, the, the gap was, I think pretty significant over two legs, you know, so, um, it doesn't always turn out the way that the, the higher spending MLS team loses in the, in the champions league final.
01:04:09
Speaker
Right. Right. But all right. Well, that's, uh, that's it. That's what we got. Yeah. Nice breezy, breezy Q and a show.
01:04:20
Speaker
Yeah, just a solid, a solid hour of a mailbag of cleaning out the mailbag. But once again, thanks everyone for listening. Thanks for supporting Sounder at Heart. This has been a quite a, quite an endeavor. We, and we have some, we will hopefully next week we'll be sharing some, some kind of expansion news and things that the Sounder at Heart universe is expanding a little bit. And we'll be able to share that next week. I think people will.
01:04:50
Speaker
We'll enjoy that news. Uh, but it's been, it's, it's been, this has been great. Uh, I hope people are really into, we just finished a survey that came back really positive, frankly. So glad to hear that. But if people have feedback, they want to send us, please hit us up support at sounder at heart.com should be relatively straightforward way to remember that. But if you want to get involved in the mailbag episodes, get on our discord.
01:05:19
Speaker
You can get into the discord by being a member at the $75 a year level or better, or higher, I should say. And with that, I guess I'll get out of here. I am Jeremiah O'Shan signing off for Aaron Campo and Likit. This is Noah's Adi at Dis, and we will catch you next time.
01:06:34
Speaker
We love you. Let's win another one!