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Episode 435: Are we ... back?
82 Plays2 years ago
Ok, let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. The Seattle Sounders are in the midst of a five-game unbeaten streak, but a lot of those results are against pretty bad teams. Still, they've been struggling for months against just about everyone so allow us to dream a little, yeah?
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Transcript
Introduction & Sponsorship
00:00:00
Speaker
Hey, this is Christian Roldan. And Jordan Morris from the Seattle Sounders Football Club. And you're listening to NOS Arietes. This episode of NOS Arietes is sponsored by Full Pull Wines, a Seattle-based wine retailer and proud sponsor of NOS Arietes since 2011. Full Pull was founded in 2009, is based in Seattle, and is owned and operated by longtime Sounders supporters. They offer the best boutique wines of the world to members of their mailing list, with special focus on their home, the Pacific Northwest.
00:00:28
Speaker
A.O. Shen! Let's go! What a save by Fry! The Seattle Sounders have done it! MLS Cup win! Here come three years through the middle to crown it the vehicle! And now they truly can't stop the celebrations. It's the Sounders' MLS Cup! Niko Liddo leaves out!
00:01:12
Speaker
Is that what you young people call twerking?
00:01:26
Speaker
Welcome to another edition of NOS Adietta, sponsored by Fullpool Wines, Watson's Counter, and our subscribers. This is episode 435, and we're recording on Thursday, September 21st, 2023.
Sounders' Winning Streak and Playoff Potential
00:01:38
Speaker
I'm your host, Jeremiah Shan. Joining me, as usual, is my co-host, Aaron, and our producer, Lickit.
00:01:46
Speaker
It hasn't always been pretty, but the Sounders are now on a five game unbeaten streak and close enough to first place that it's kind of worth thinking about scenarios they can get where they can get to the top spot in the West. That's after a two, one win over the Colorado rapids. The first 75 minutes or so was about as good as the hunters have looked in a long time. It was not a perfect performance by any stretch, but they were moving the ball, creating chances and outshooting the rapids 11 to two. Well, building a two zero lead now, because this is the 2023 Sounders.
00:02:17
Speaker
it did get a little bit nervy at the end, but overall, I thought it was an encouraging, albeit encouraging performance, albeit against the last place team. We've been saying a lot of that lately, it seems. What do you think, Aaron? Are we back? Yeah, I don't I'm not ready to say that yet. I'm not willing to say that yet. But one of the things I was kind of thinking about last night after the Rapids game is that it's easy to look back on
00:02:45
Speaker
past seasons and sort of forget how sloppy the sausage making was at times. There were a lot of games like this one and a lot of games like the one against Dallas in even the best seasons, right? Where you just scrap it out and get a point on the road and maybe you don't play that great.
00:03:07
Speaker
like they did against Dallas in the first half, but you're solid enough at the back and you have, you know, good enough attacking players that can go and get you a goal. And you just got those games out. And if you can win your games at home and if you can win games against teams like the rapids on the road,
00:03:27
Speaker
it might set you up for a good run on the playoffs. And I just think so much of how we look back on seasons is dependent on how do we feel at the end of the year.
00:03:38
Speaker
This Sounders team, we've been saying it all year. I think you've been more convinced of it than me at times, but there's enough talent, especially in this Western Conference, that there's no reason to think that this team can't go on a run. It just needed to show us that they were capable of doing that. I think going unbeaten in five is
00:04:03
Speaker
You know, it's not bad. It's the longest unbeaten run they've had since that record setting start in 2021. So it's, you know, a five game unbeaten streak is not the highest bar. You know, I sort of went through a laundry list of these things that they've accomplished. They have eight goals in these five games. Again,
00:04:25
Speaker
Not exactly, you know, like that's not exactly blowing the doors off of anyone. But to put it in context, eight goals in five games is the same number of goals they had in the 10 games immediately preceding this run. They scored, they've scored
00:04:43
Speaker
multiple goals in three games, you'd have to go back basically, I think it was 18 games to find the span of time it took them to get to three multi-goal games. So it's not like everything is great, but it's better.
Strategies and Formations
00:05:01
Speaker
There are five points out of first place.
00:05:04
Speaker
There is a plausible scenario in which the Sounders are playing for the top spot in the West if they can in the season finale. The second segment of this show, I think we're going to get into the details of how that breaks down.
00:05:23
Speaker
But one of the things I think that's really, I think maybe the most encouraging part or the area that you can find the most encouragement from the sounders is there's six, one, and three when Christian Roldan starts and Christian Roldan seems to be capable of starting again. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, that's, that's huge. And whether or not the sounders should, whether it's excusable, that they're that dependent on one player is, is.
00:05:53
Speaker
Certainly a topic for discussion, but it is kind of the reality and he is playing. He looked, I think really good against Colorado. Um, I think another thing too, that's just been encouraging is that even going back to the Portland game.
00:06:09
Speaker
They've looked fun at times, not as consistently as we'd like. They're not blowing teams out of the water. The Dallas game was not fun to watch, but it's Dallas on the road in late September. It's never fun to watch those games.
00:06:27
Speaker
being back just for whatever reason seems to have this multiplier effect of everyone plays a little bit more loose and the team just works better and more cohesively. And I think I'm really ready to, I need to see probably one or two more good results and I need to see Christian stay healthy.
00:06:47
Speaker
But I'm ready to be like super optimistic. I am. Hey, it's not going to take a lot to convince me that you can make a run in MLS Cup, right? Like in that a month ago, like if you would ask me after the Monterey game, do you see any plausible way that you're going to get back to this? Even this point this season, there's no way that I would have felt that way. And then they lost to Atlanta in the first game out of the. Yeah. And I think it looked really, really bad.
00:07:14
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, and that's sort of the thing is I kind of keep coming back to this and you just put yourself in the mindset of where things were after the Atlanta game. And we're in a much better place. I think this is probably closer to what the Sounders were. We're trying to do, and I think maybe it's a good sign that even after this game, you know, both Albert Rusnak and. And Stephen Fry were both sort of.
00:07:43
Speaker
Yeah, like we, we played better, but we know we could, you know, we know, we, we know we're not at our best yet. And, and they were very, you know, and, and the end of the game was a little sloppy, you know, they got outshot nine zero over the last 15 minutes of the game. Uh, it wasn't like.
00:08:00
Speaker
The rapids were dominant in that, but you know, the goal they got was a well-deserved goal. And they had a couple of, you know, decent looks at potentially finding an equalizer. And those end of the game was pretty nervy. But the Sounders got through it, right? Yeah.
00:08:18
Speaker
I think the thing that I need to see, and I don't think we're going to see it against Nashville, and it felt like we might see it against Colorado, was I need to see them just lay the boots to somebody. It would be nice. It would do a world of good. I think that that was the thing that had me frustrated after the result was not only did they not
00:08:39
Speaker
find a way to blow the doors off, but they made it a lot more uncomfortable than it really needed to be down the stretch. But I think a lot of that is due to confidence. I think a lot of that in this game was probably due to fatigue as well. But the fact that they were even a position where it's like, man, they could win this game by like three or four goals on the road. That's just not something that we would have seen, you know, at any point really this season past May.
00:09:05
Speaker
And so the vibes are not immaculate yet, but they're
00:09:10
Speaker
They're better. Like this, this does not feel like a team that is just bound and determined to shoot themselves in the foot every time they step on the field. And they definitely felt that way in August. Yeah. And I would say there's, yeah. And there's, you know, there's still some sense of fragility, I think with the way this team is. And I think we saw that against the rapids where as soon as the momentum turns, it feels like, uh-oh, where are we going? Yeah.
00:09:38
Speaker
And they only cure really for that. I mean, that's, and I think some of that is perception. Some of that is reality. And, you know, there's something to be said that the sounders haven't had a shutout in a long time at this point. I think they're now going on at least eight straight without a shutout, which I'm sure is the longest stretch they've gone this year without a shutout. They are not, which is good. Sorry, but which is crazy when you consider that they've allowed the second few schools in MLS.
00:10:07
Speaker
Yeah. Well, they've been raising, right. I would say overall their defense is still pretty good. And they've even in that stretch of games, which doesn't include the, you know, the seven goals they allowed during leaks cup, but it's mostly, it's mostly one goal that they've allowed. I think they have maybe two games in that time where they gave up two goals, which was the Portland game and the Atlanta game.
00:10:30
Speaker
But so it's not like they're getting shelled by anyone, but it does seem like they make one critical error game that ends up costing them a goal. And that's you know, that's bad. You certainly don't want to do that. And like even against the the rapids like.
00:10:46
Speaker
I went back and watched that a few times and they, you know, they had a few chances to clear that opportunity. They didn't clear it. And then what ends up happening is like both Josh attention and Obed Vargas get sort of stuck guarding space instead of tracking a runner.
00:11:03
Speaker
And those are the kind of things that happen. I will note, it was like Christian Roldan, if he was playing, would have probably been playing the spot that Ovid Bergus was in. And I would imagine maybe he's a little more attentive to where Cole Bassett is on that play. So it wasn't a perfect game, but again, there was just a lot more to like about it.
00:11:29
Speaker
one of the things I did appreciate about that game was that we could see the way the sounders are trying to play a little bit more clearly and you could really see when they were in the attack that it turns that their formation really turned into like a 3-1 you know 2-4 or a 3-1 3-3 where you had you know Albert or Alex Rodon essentially playing as a as a forward
00:11:54
Speaker
And then you have like these, you know, a tensio Rusnak and roll dawn, all sort of in like taking turns, making runs, uh, through the, the forward line. And it worked a couple of times, you know, Albert, uh, got behind the defense one time. He, he, you know, tried to like over the shoulder volley that went wide. And then he also was a late arriving run on the, on the goalie scored. And I, it was just nice to see an identifiable.
00:12:22
Speaker
like method to their attack, I think. Yeah, I think that that that's really been noticeable over the last few games, even against Dallas, where they didn't look good, but they looked like they had a plan, at least. Yeah. And that that is a market difference, I think, from the worst times, the worst. They've looked a season where it didn't look like they had that at all. Like it looked like they were a team without an identity, without a real
00:12:48
Speaker
concrete way of what they wanted to do going forward. Their defense has probably at times saved them from the season going a lot worse than it potentially could have, I think. And so I think the thing for me, the takeaway for me is that early in the season, the Sounders looked like an elite, potentially historically good MLS team.
00:13:13
Speaker
And they have not looked that way for a while. And there's this frustration in games like this or in games like the one against Austin that they are not at that, back at that level where they look like world beaters. Right now they look like a pretty good MLS team.
00:13:31
Speaker
And frankly, this year, that might be enough to get you to an MLS Cup out of the Western Conference. Yeah, I think that's true. I think one of the big questions they have to answer right now is what's the lineup look like? And one of the other things I talked about in my column is that they've been rotating their lineup with some regularly. And maybe that's the key, is that they just need to keep their lineup fresh.
00:13:57
Speaker
but they've been averaging about four changes per game over these last four games. They've used 18 different starters during this five game unbeaten streak. And those are all, and I think maybe that's the key is they just need to not get too settled in on one starting group. But at some point they will need to use like, they have to make a choice about who's, like the national game I think is very interesting because they're gonna come into this thing fully rested,
00:14:29
Speaker
And mostly fit, or mostly available, I guess, and knew who's suspended for this game. So maybe we'll see like Reed Baker Whiting at left back and maybe that has some cask, that causes some cascading changes in the lineup. But I do think it's, it's notable. And I think a lot of people are talking about the idea that this might, the best version of the sounders might not include Raul Rui Diaz and Nico Lidero in the starting lineup. And I'm curious where you fall in that decision.
00:14:57
Speaker
I definitely think the best version of The Sounders does not include Raoul in the starting lineup, whether that is a permanent condition, I think is maybe up for debate, but I just say what you will about Jordan and his, you know, maybe his unwillingness to shoot or whatever you want to say, his maybe lack of finishing at times.
00:15:26
Speaker
He contributes a lot more to the team in non-scoring ways than Raoul. I think that's very reasonable to say. I do too. Which, when Raoul is scoring every other game, who cares? Right, absolutely. But he is not doing that at all. And not even looking dangerous. I think you look good against Portland.
00:15:51
Speaker
But then he immediately regressed sort of to like the version of himself that we've gotten all too accustomed to seeing against Dallas where he just totally he played 63 minutes. He had 14 touches and then he got hurt. Yeah.
00:16:06
Speaker
Yeah, yeah, I mean, and it's I love Raul. I don't want him to be this version of himself. No, but there is a lot of evidence that he is like there's a lot of evidence that this is not a rut, that this is kind of the player that he is right now. And strikers are sort of by their very nature, streaky and Raul is not immune from that. But this does not feel like a player that
00:16:30
Speaker
is just doesn't have a shooting boots on, right? Like this feels different to me. And I know that that sort of contradicts something I said earlier this year where I felt like Raul was a lot more capable of getting back to it than Nico. I feel like the opposite of that now. And I think a lot of that is that Nico, they've started to manage his minutes a little better. He's not playing every single game and he's looked pretty good. He's not 2019 Nico Ledero.
00:16:58
Speaker
He's not even 2022, early 2022, and he could have lit zero. But I don't think, like, I think that the best version of the Sounders could have him on the field. I don't think it necessarily does, but I'm open to that. I'm much more open to that possibility than the idea that Raul is guaranteed, you know, guaranteed starter.
00:17:19
Speaker
Yeah, and I guess the I'm also open to that idea. And I suppose it's possible we just never ultimately have to answer it definitively. And maybe there's a world where they just are able to rotate and everyone's happy. But my suspicion is that at some point the centers are going to have to make a decision about who their
00:17:38
Speaker
You know, I think you can, you can argue that Morris is the starter at the nine until Rudy Diaz can prove himself capable of starting there, right? That leaves Leo Chiu as the pretty obvious starter on the left. I think Christian Roldan, I think we all agree Christian Roldan is the starter on the right if he's healthy.
00:17:58
Speaker
That leaves the midfield trio, where I suspect the easy decision would be if it was Lidero, Giao Paolo, and Albert Rusnak. I have become convinced that that particular trio just does not have what the Sounders need to be competitive. Now, I suppose it's possible that just adding Christian Roldan on the right suddenly allows that trio to be more effective. I'm open to that possibility.
00:18:28
Speaker
But are you, are you, or do you think, or are you maybe like I do think there's an argument to be made that like you need a Josh attention or an Obed Vargas in that midfield trio just to sort of make it work. I think you're half right there I think you definitely need.
00:18:49
Speaker
a player like Joshua Tenseo or Obed Vargas. I'll say that. Okay. I have a clear preference of the two. I think we probably do. I do too. But I do think conceptually, yeah, you're correct. João Paulo is not, he's still an elite midfielder, but I don't think he is capable of doing as much as he was a year or two ago.
00:19:12
Speaker
I think he needs to have a more defined role than just being a free roaming six or whatever the term would be.
00:19:21
Speaker
The best Sounders teams of the last few years have had Nikko does whatever the hell he wants in the attacking third and Joao Paulo does whatever the hell he wants in the central third. And it was great when it worked. They were capable of doing that, but that's not a reality that can continue to exist for that long no matter who the players are.
00:19:44
Speaker
So yes, I definitely think that you need a player like Atencio or like Vargas. And I feel bad because it's not like I think that Obed Vargas is a bad player, that he still has just limitless potential. I just don't think he's someone the sounders can be depending on right now for a host of reasons. And I think Atencio has looked great pretty much any time he's played.
00:20:07
Speaker
Yeah, I think it's, it's notable about, uh, about attention. The, the sounders are five to an Oh, and in his starts now, a lot of those starts happened to coincide with Christian rolled on also being on the field. And I don't want to overstate how good like.
00:20:24
Speaker
Atencio was not perfect against the rapids, but I do think he undeniably provides a element to the Sounders that makes them better. And that is an ability to win a lot of balls in the midfield and a willingness to sort of push the game forward that I don't think anyone else is really capable of doing for 90 minutes.
00:20:51
Speaker
Right. I think that he and Obed have overlapping skill sets to a large degree, but I think where the differences are, the things that Atencio does are more beneficial to the Sounders at this point. I think there's things that he brings to the table that Obed and frankly, nobody else really in the midfield does. I think that that's been pretty clear.
00:21:20
Speaker
Anytime he's played this year. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I really hope we get to see more of a tendency of this year. I think there's a real positive, like to me, he's the player who has the most potential to raise this under ceiling.
00:21:37
Speaker
And, you know, maybe there's some drawbacks, like the newest thing that Brian Schmetzer said, I feel like I always ask about Atencio. And, you know, yesterday he said something about how his angles on pressing sometimes leave him, leave the sounders more exposed and with other players
00:21:59
Speaker
Which might be true. I don't know. I, I, I, you know, it's like, I kind of trust the coaches on that one, but that was, that was a new, it was a new, uh, area of improvement for attention to make the, and also I don't know that like open viruses angles are perfect either.
Depth and Player Rotation
00:22:14
Speaker
It is interesting that there are players that get that kind of feedback publicly and players that don't.
00:22:24
Speaker
Yeah. And those players tend to coincide with the players that maybe some folks in the fan base would prefer to see more of. Which is predictable, I guess, because the coaches, like, nobody's asking. Why is this guy that sucks not playing more? Well, and nobody's asking why.
00:22:46
Speaker
What it what is this guy that you keep playing? What what does he suck at? Right. Right. Right. But yeah, yeah, that's what it is. Yeah, it is funny. I mean, there is a pattern there that is that is pretty funny. Yeah. And I don't know. I do. I guess my biggest hope from this five game stretch is that the Sounders are because I think I think sometimes the coaching staff said all the right things about, oh, we're so deep and all this kind of things. But when push came to shove, they didn't really.
00:23:17
Speaker
show it. They didn't really use those players as effectively as they could have. And I do think that they were more effective during this stretch. And I hope that's sort of like the takeaway is that there are good players on this team. We just have to like rotate them in and show them some faith. It is interesting that I don't think Abraham I'm not sure played at all during this.
00:23:39
Speaker
I don't think he did. And I know Mark Kastner pointed that out late on in the game before it was decided and the Sounders had absolutely no outlet and could not hold possession. And a lot of players in the attacking third were looked exhausted that he couldn't even sniff the game in that situation, which seems seems like a bad sign to me. It doesn't seem great. It does not seem great.
00:24:07
Speaker
That is for sure. Well, why don't we take a break here? We're going to come back. We're going to talk a little bit about the scenarios. Like we have 10 days off, so it's maybe fun to play around some scenarios, but we're going to talk about the scenario that could potentially play out, that would see the Sounders playing for a Western Conference title on the last day of the season. You're listening to No Saunee at Dis, and we will be right back.
00:24:35
Speaker
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00:25:05
Speaker
Welcome back to NOS Adiatus. So in this segment, we're going to basically look at schedules and talk about what the sounders are going to have to do and what else has to happen for the sounders to have a chance at winning the West. Now, the caveat here is this is a scenario. This is not us necessarily predicting what will happen. I think that the ground rules for this is understanding that
00:25:38
Speaker
Like this is probably not the most, there's a good chance this won't happen. We're not saying it's going to happen, but I'll start by saying this. If the Sounders can at least tie Nashville, I think that sets up a pretty viable path. They would have to win their two home games against the Galaxy and the Vancouver Whitecaps. Now I'll tell you, the Galaxy have not been a very good road team. They're only two seven and five on the road.
00:26:09
Speaker
That's a game the Sounders absolutely have to win. The Whitecaps game, also a game they have to win.
00:26:16
Speaker
They've been a little better on the road. They're four, six and four. But the good news is that the white caps are going to be coming off a stretch or they have played seven games in like three weeks. They're like currently doing a lot of makeup for some. I'm not quite sure why, but they're having to make up some games. And while the Sounders are enjoying a 10 day break for like right now, the white caps are going to be playing another game on the weekend. Then they're going to play, you know, they've got a bunch of two game weeks coming up.
00:26:45
Speaker
So that might be in the sounders favor that the Whitecaps could be sort of like running on fumes a little bit for that game. But if the sounders can do all that, the biggest part that they will need is St. Louis can't get more than four points over in their next three games. Those three games are.
00:27:08
Speaker
at Minnesota, which I think is they're going to be playing a desperate team at home against Kansas City. This is a team they've struggled with in the past. And then on the road against Vancouver, which I think is the game right before the sounders play. Is that right? Yeah, I think so. Uh, yeah. So, and, and like Vancouver is probably a, you know, that's, that's going to be a tough one for them. So I don't think four points from St. Louis is all that.
00:27:39
Speaker
far fetched, right? No, I don't think so. I mean, it's probably more difficult than the sounders getting their points they need, I think, but I don't think it's out of the question. Yeah.
00:27:52
Speaker
Yeah, and then there are some, and then all here, I'll run down the, cause there's a bunch of teams that could also catch St. Louis. LAFC is right behind the Sounders in the standings. They've got four games, they got four more games to play before their season finale. They can't get more than eight points, which are at Philadelphia, home versus RSL, home versus Minnesota, then at Austin. I think that at Austin game, probably automatic three points.
00:28:20
Speaker
And then they can't, basically they can't win both home games in that scenario. I don't know. That's reasonably like, they're probably gonna lose the Philadelphia game. I think that that's also coming. Like there's going to be, it's a fixture congestion type of thing. Home versus RSL, home versus Minnesota. Might be tough.
00:28:43
Speaker
Yeah, it's there's a lot that has to go right here. Yeah. And so much of it is out of the sounder's control that you can't really worry about it. It's funny to dream about, right? Like, and ultimately, like, it probably doesn't even make that big of a difference is the other thing. Although you pointed out that
00:29:05
Speaker
There's a really seemingly likely scenario at this point that the Sounders play the Timbers in the first round, which would be the worst possible outcome of all possible outcomes. Although there would be something poetic if they could actually stop their home losing streak against the Timbers in a home playoff game.
00:29:24
Speaker
That's very true. But they have to actually win to do that. Yeah, if the Sounders end on like 51 points, or thereabout, which would be they only win their two remaining home games, like the way they could get there potentially is just winning their two home games. I would say finishing third feels pretty like 51 points feels like a third place finish to me. And I think there's a pretty good chance the Timbers are going to get to sixth.
00:29:51
Speaker
Yeah. So, yeah, I think the first more important for me is voiding that than finishing first because it does have to go right. That national game is huge to me. For sure. For sure. And that's a really, really tough game. I mean, Nashville is not.
00:30:08
Speaker
Great when you look at their overall record but when you look at what they've done at home and also just the fact that they're really difficult to beat I think is the biggest thing because you don't I mean you really I guess a point is fine there right you can't lose that game.
00:30:25
Speaker
I think if they get a point in Nashville, that's great. Obviously a win would be ideal, but a point is a perfectly good result. 8-2 and 3 at home, Nashville. 8-2 and 3 at home. Don't score a lot. Really tough to score against. Best defensive record in the league.
00:30:45
Speaker
But I could see a nil-nil in that game. I mean, neither team is really all that great offensively, unfortunately, for the Sounders. At a nil-nil there, I think it's fine. I think any result to Nashville is fine. Yeah.
00:31:02
Speaker
So yeah, you get over that hump and you know, it's if you if they get over, I don't know. I start to feel pretty good about their chances of of the there are two other teams that can that can potentially pass the Sounders. That's Houston.
00:31:19
Speaker
And they have a bit of a rough one. So they're at Kansas City. That's probably a tough one for them. They are home versus Dallas and then at Montreal and then home versus the Rapids. They can't get more than nine points from those games. I don't feel like there's three wins though in those four games.
00:31:41
Speaker
Uh, and then the other one is Vancouver. They have two games in hand actually on the Sounders. Um, and they, and so they're going to play their, their run up to the season finale is at RSL at the rapids and then home versus DC home versus St. Louis and then at the Sounders. Yeah. So I guess the St. Louis game is right before the Sounders game.
00:32:06
Speaker
Yeah, I am. I'm not too worried about Houston or Vancouver. No, I'm not. Catching the Sounders. I mean, I think like for me, if the sound area where the Sounders win, you're saying exactly. Yes. Like I and if the Sounders don't finish in first, I'm not really sure I care that much where they finish. If that makes sense. Obviously, I want them to be playing while going into the playoffs.
00:32:30
Speaker
And I don't want them to play against the timbers, but like, I'm much more worried about, like, I guess, um, well, I think what you're saying is you're not so much worried about where they finish. You're interested in who they play. Yeah. And I think like if the sounders.
00:32:47
Speaker
would finish first except Houston goes on a run and catches them and takes first? That would be really annoying. I'm just not worried about that happening. But if the sounders play okay the rest of the way and Houston catches up and finishes fourth and the sounders finish fifth, I don't know that I care about like that that much. If that makes sense. Yeah, it does make sense. I think the other thing that is interesting is the
00:33:16
Speaker
Like right now the Sounders would be playing, I think the earthquakes if the season ended today. That feels like a, like, even though the centers haven't played well against the earthquakes, that feels like a matchup. I would be perfectly happy with, but you know, like RSL feels like a little tougher of a matchup. Maybe, uh, timbers is not a matchup that I'm relishing. Uh, and then there's other crazy, you know, like the white caps could end like the white caps or even Houston could be a team. The centers have to play in the first round.
00:33:47
Speaker
Dallas has two games at hand on a lot of teams. I guess I'm not really worried about Dallas. No, I'm not super worried about Minnesota. But like, even though the centers are two and oh against Houston, that would that's a that's a kind of tricky one, I think.
Playoff Scenarios and Opponents
00:34:06
Speaker
There were definitely senior circumstances last time they played Houston. The last two times plus. Yeah, that's true. Yeah. But.
00:34:14
Speaker
Anyway, so those are the scenarios. I thought that was kind of a fun little. I definitely felt last night when I started thinking about it and it was kind of being talked about online. I'm glad you did the math on this because it's really, I mean, it's plausible.
00:34:31
Speaker
And it's nice to be excited about something like that again and not immediately dismiss it out of hand because the team is playing so poorly. And obviously, I think probably the most likely scenario is the Sounders finish the season with six more points. There's definitely scenarios where they finish with more like three or four points.
00:34:56
Speaker
Yeah, my prediction of 46 points is not looking good, but I did say that I didn't actually believe it. And I was just saying 46 points to spice things up. So what did I say? I think you said I think you said 48. Okay.
00:35:12
Speaker
Yeah, I think I thought 48 was the number of the, the person had set as the, maybe it was, maybe it was, but either way, uh, well, I, we, I could check the discord. I would say if the sounders can get to 50 points, that will feel like a reasonably successful regular season to me. Yeah. Yeah. I'm totally fine with that. I mean, I, especially considering how, you know,
00:35:37
Speaker
how things have been going. Yeah. I mean, it's hard for me to feel frustrated with a 50 point season, I guess is what I'm saying. Yeah. Yeah. I would. If you told me at the beginning of the season, they were going to end at 50 points, I would have been ordered like a month. That was your prediction. OK. Yeah. So, yeah, I mean, I don't know. It's it's it's a funny one. Yeah. But if they can, I think, honestly, I would if they win their two home games,
00:36:05
Speaker
I will feel very like I think I'll be at peace with the way things go because if they win their two home games, they're probably going to get home field advantage in the first round. Yeah.
00:36:18
Speaker
And, and I would, it would feel really good to end the season on with some home wins. They have not won a home game in a really long time. It's outrageous. Yeah. And that's, I think that's the thing for me is that for a lot of the season, I never really thought the odds of making the playoffs were that low. Like I, even when things were going pretty bad, I felt like their start was good enough that they were probably going to get in there, but it was almost like, what's the point?
00:36:44
Speaker
Sure, definitely. They're bad. They're going to lose in the first round. Now they're back to a place where it's like, we've been talking about it all night. This is a team that if they can keep this up, this is a team that can make a run. It's a good time of year to start playing well, I think is the takeaway there. If you're going to have a big slump, better to have it,
00:37:14
Speaker
in the middle of the year and get good at the end than like 2013, where you're the best team in the league for most of the year. And then you could just completely fall apart. Right. Yeah. And you know, there was, I think I meant to mention this earlier, but I don't know why I'm saying that now is a good time to mention it in 2019, the way they ended this, I think it's, it's funny because we think of 2019 as being a really successful season and.
00:37:39
Speaker
their lead into the playoffs was not that good. They were like, they were 2-1-1 in their last four games. They only scored two goals in those four games. One of them was like a very late winner against San Jose on the road, and then they beat Minnesota in the season finale 1-0. And that season, I think they only finished on like 52 points. I think they had like the,
00:38:06
Speaker
the fourth best record in the, in the Western conference, but they, you know, they ended up hosting MLS cup because they played the fifth seed in the East. And, and we don't think about any of that. They, you know, they beat LAFC in the, what we remember is the playoff achievements and
00:38:25
Speaker
There's definitely a scenario where that plays out like that this year. Yeah. Yeah. And I mean, the, the other thing too, is that that LAFC team that they were playing, there's nobody like that that they have to play in a Western conference. Yeah. Um, if, if this, if the version of the sounders that we've had since that Atlanta game is the version of the sounders we can expect going into the playoffs, I think it's really.
00:38:52
Speaker
It's going to be really interesting to watch for sure. I feel pretty optimistic about it. And I think it's potentially that they're better, you know, but they've got a, the Vancouver and LA games are, I think critical to how I feel about their, their chances of actually making that run, whether or not I'm like, yeah, it's possible or whether I'm like actually optimistic about it.
00:39:17
Speaker
Yeah. Uh, I'll just throw this out there. Uh, sports club stats, which is a stat that I, a site that I had kind of like forgotten existed for a long time. They have the sounders chances of making the playoffs at 99.9% right now.
00:39:32
Speaker
Um, and their most likely finish in the standings, according to their Monte Carlo, I think is what they, I think they do like a Monte Carlo simulation, which is just basically a bunch of raw simulations. Right. But, um, based on like home and they, they have them most likely finishing between, uh, well, let's see, what is their most.
00:40:00
Speaker
They have a 15% chance of finishing second, a 21% chance of finishing third, a 22% chance of finishing fourth. So you add that together with their 4% chance of finishing first. And there is a roughly 60% chance that they'll be hosting the home field advantage in the first round. So pretty good odds. If the Sounders can win a playoff game this year,
00:40:30
Speaker
considering how bad a lot of it was. Yeah, I feel okay about that. Yeah, so do I. So do I. Well, that's probably a good place to call this a show. We probably won't be doing a regular show again until after the Nashville game. But just as a reminder, we've been doing or I've been doing sound bites, which is a little mini podcast that's available to
00:40:57
Speaker
paid subscribers only. We also have a mailbag episode that will be coming out probably this weekend. We have an interview with Hugh Weber, the Sounders president, that's going to come out on Monday. There's going to be an extended version of that that's available to paid subscribers. And we'll probably, yeah, we'll probably, maybe we'll look for a Nashville person to do a podcast with. So lots of stuff coming up, even though we won't be doing our normal podcast for another week or so.
00:41:26
Speaker
All that said, I'm Jeremiah Shan, signing off for Aaron Campo and Lick It. This is No Saudi Yetis. And remember, you'll never be out alone.
00:42:33
Speaker
We love you. Let's win another one!