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Mailbag: How high will Obed Vargas’ asking price go?
1.5k Plays1 month ago
Jeremiah and Aaron are back with their monthly mailbag episode. This time, they discuss Obed Vargas’ asking price, the appropriate level of roster churn, and the future of various members of the Sounders front office and coaching staffs.
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Transcript
Introduction and Sponsorship
00:00:02
Speaker
This episode of Nos Arietes is sponsored by Fullpool Wines, a Seattle-based wine retailer and proud sponsor of Nos Arietes since 2011. Fullpool was founded in 2009, is based in Seattle, and is owned and operated by longtime Sounders supporters. They offer the best boutique wines of the world to members of their mailing list, with special focus on their home, Pacific Northwest.
Will Bruin's New Role
00:00:25
Speaker
Hi, I'm Will Bruin, and I was just recognized as a Seattle Sounders legend. now i get to do voice reads for the sounder at heart podcast network
00:00:40
Speaker
about sound <unk> it
00:01:21
Speaker
we all got of sudden go
00:01:30
Speaker
We're seeing some of our commentary that we didn't take lo seriously.
Mailbag Session Introduction
00:01:41
Speaker
Welcome back to another episode of NOS Audiotis, sponsored by Fullpool Wines. And of course, our readers, this is a mailbag episode. Oh, I'm Jeremiah Shan, joining me today. Aaron Kepa, how are you doing, Aaron?
00:01:55
Speaker
I'm doing great. I'd be doing better if I could find a mute button. Yeah, doing good. About to go on vacation, so I've got the Zoomies, you know? Well, um this is a podcast, so we should banter for like five or six minutes before we talk about anything of interest.
Aaron Kepa's Connection to Memphis
00:02:11
Speaker
Where are you going on your vacation, Aaron? I'm going to the Bluff City, beautiful Memphis, Tennessee. Do a little grit and rind, go to the Bass Pro Shops, watch some punk rock bands at Garner Fest. It's going to be a good time.
00:02:25
Speaker
That's barbecue. Yeah, that sounds fun. Yeah. Haven't been, haven't been in, uh, six years. No, eight, God, nine years, 2015 last time I went. So.
00:02:38
Speaker
And you were you're from there. Yeah, I am from there. That's right. Yeah. When did you move from? I would have been I would have been seven or eight, but, you know, spent a lot of time there ah and in the years after as well. So if someone asks you where you're from, is that what you say? Or where do you say you're from? ah I usually say I grew up in Olympia is usually the way I put it, because as much as I love Memphis and do feel like a pretty deep connection to it,
00:03:07
Speaker
You'd feel a little insincere maybe to say you're from there. For sure. Yeah. It wasn't nearly as formative as Olympia was for for better or worse, probably mostly better. But um but I do i just still love it. I still, you know, I don't think of myself as a Southerner, but I think of myself as being deeply influenced by Southern culture. Because how how could how could one with my parents not have been?
00:03:32
Speaker
Fair enough. Well, that's two million minutes solid of what I will call banter. Yeah. I think we can maybe move into the main portion of this podcast, which is ah like I said, mailbag episode. We fueled these questions from our discord.
Subscriber Benefits: Discord and RSS
00:03:52
Speaker
If you are listening to this and you're like, what the hell is Discord and how do I get involved there? I will tell you that you that is open to all of our subscribers at the supporter, which is $75 a year, a level or above. And if you want to get on in on that, send us an email support at sounderatheart.com. I don't know if I've actually given that address out on the podcast before.
00:04:17
Speaker
yeah ah So I should probably do that more often, and then people can find it without going, I had no idea how to find that thing. ah How was I supposed to know that? So there you go, right? Yeah, now you know. Now you know. ah One other thing I wanted to pass on. we are in the pro If you were listening to this on the private RSS feed, or e did you know that we had a private ah RSS feed? You might not even know that. ah But we have a private RSS feed. It's mostly the same stuff. The main difference is that you can get all the podcasts on the Sounder Heart Podcast Network, which also includes Lobbying Squirtures and the Cooler Guild all in one feed. So you don't have to but subscribe to three separate feeds. You can get them all in one feed. Also, all the episodes of Soundbites go on there and anything else that we deem interesting enough to send only to subscribers and not to all of our
00:05:14
Speaker
regular listeners. All that stuff is going to go on our private feed. So if you are interested in getting that, we are in the process of changing the feed because we have a new podcast host that lets us do this in a more cohesive way. But anyway,
00:05:31
Speaker
figure out You can get all the information you need to know at www.sounderatheart.com backslash subscriber hyphen feed and ah everything you need to know will get you that information.
00:05:45
Speaker
Yeah, i so I subscribed. Couldn't be easier to plug that into your old Apple podcasts or whatever whatever app you use. I'm assuming it's easy in other ones is's too. If it's easy in an Apple native app, it has to be yeah easy. Yeah. I will warn you, if you listen to us on Spotify, Spotify does not offer the ability to subscribe to a private RSS feed yeah for some reason. I assume it's because they want their their money.
00:06:10
Speaker
to do that or something. They got to put their 800 ads for Joe Rogan in there or whatever. Right. ah So that's a that's an that's another good note for for you all. Also, if you're listening to this and you're not a subscriber to sound at heart, man, just become one. It's it's the best. It is the absolute best. ah Anyway.
00:06:31
Speaker
What, we got questions. Let's, let's get to some of those.
Obed Vargas' Market Value Speculation
00:06:34
Speaker
Yeah. Let's kick it off. The first one is from boomstick three one five with Obed's call up to Mexico, you 23s. And the recent report that he's in the top 20 most experienced teenagers in the world. What do you guys think the front office sees is Obed's fair value. Would they accept the $3, $4 million dollars offer from a leak at and McKee's teams? Like we've seen in recent years for players like Cal or do they value him more?
00:06:55
Speaker
I got to think that they value him more than that. I would imagine there was a time maybe not so long ago that they probably would have accepted a offer in the $4 million dollar range as long as they got like a big sell on at the on the other end of it.
00:07:10
Speaker
i i would be I mean, I think, I would think this, I don't know this for sure, but my thinking is that $6 million dollars is what you need to offer just to start a conversation. And I, I don't know, I would think the sounders might be looking for more like 10, but they, I could see them talking themselves into, look, it's, it's pays off more in the longterm. If we get him someplace that has the potential to sell him someplace bigger, right?
00:07:41
Speaker
and and that they see, there might be real value in the salon. But, you know, Boomstick did bring up this this top 100 teens in the world thing. It's actually kind of an interesting list. It's through the soccer, the football observer, I think is the name of the of the of the website. And basically what they do is they crunch a bunch of numbers and they they came up with this. And this is, what what this particular ranking is based on is,
00:08:10
Speaker
Looking at the level of competition that teenagers are playing in and who basically has gotten the most experience of those players, I have not gone through the whole list, but I can tell you that I think Vorgas is 16th on this list, which is pretty impressive in itself.
00:08:26
Speaker
And he's the only American. He's the only player in MLS who is on this list. It just speaks to the kind of experience. Now, it does not mean he's the 16th best teen in the world. It just means that he is getting the most high level experience or at the 16th most high level experience, which is pretty cool. Yeah, there are definitely teenagers playing in equivalent leagues to MLS who are going to go for a lot more money than Obed Bergus is going to go for.
00:08:54
Speaker
and i And I don't know that they're better players. I doubt that they are in every case. um And but that's just the reality, right? Like you're not going to get full value for MLS Academy products yet. And the way to do that is to sell players like Obed and and they go on and succeed. um But i I do, I think three to four million would be really disappointing. I would be And, and I think that the, his inclusion on that list just speaks to the fact that he is, you know, like you said, it's not like a, here's a ranking of how good we think these players are, but he's contributing at a high level for a good team in MLS, which is, you know, a league that's on par with a lot of other leagues that teenagers are are getting snapped up from constantly. So, uh, I think, you know, if he were playing in one of those leagues, I think he'd probably be going for 12 to 14 million.
00:09:46
Speaker
Yeah, um but he's not yeah if you put him in Belgium and he's doing this he's yeah You know going for a huge number. But yeah, I mean like Frankie Amaya who's not a bad player, but he's not he's 25 I think he got sold to to Luca for four million dollars like if that's You know, this is a five-year, six-year-old ah player who's considerably older than Obed, who frankly doesn't have that much better experience. right And, you know, if that's the, so that's, that's sort of like, that sets a pretty high
00:10:22
Speaker
floor for what I would think the Sounders would be willing to expect. Well, my expectation for him is that they want him to play in the club World Cup as a showcase event. He's going to play against some high level competition in that. And if he does well, you know, it it could be, you know, big, big numbers. And I think it probably makes it a little easier, easier to move them in the summer as well.
00:10:48
Speaker
I don't know. It's going to be fascinating. It's it's I definitely will be surprised if he finishes next season with the Sounders. I'll put it that way, too. Yeah, I guess I wouldn't be shocked if they do a similar thing like they did with the Andre of them where they sell them and he stays the rest of the year on. Right. OK, but he hasn't been sold by the end of next. Yeah. Next season, I'd be surprised. Yeah. um And that would be great because I'd love to get another year out of Obed, especially one where he knows he's going to get a big move, you know, and he can just kind of be.
00:11:18
Speaker
I don't know, that's got to take a weight off, right? If he knows he's been sold, he knows he's moving on. yeah um That's got to relieve some pressure, so that could be fine. Just to add this, I think it's going to go down as one of the great beg fumbles of U.S. soccer history that they just blew it with with Obed. And and I know he's he's following his heart. and And I know, you know, all the all the reasons he gave, I believe that he was being truthful. But I also think that if the U.S. soccer had made it very clear that they wanted him there and that they were going to take him to the Olympics, that they were going to, you know, do all that stuff, that it wasn't that he was there. He was in the U.S. camp. He had played multiple reasonably high level games for the U.S. and that they just sort of like
00:12:04
Speaker
stop calling him is very odd. And I suspect that it's going to be one of those ones that they kick themselves over for a long time. But yeah, I do wonder if that had happened under the new regime. Uh, you know, obviously the the head coach of the national team is not making all of the decisions at that level, but he's going to have some input on who he wants in the pipeline. And, uh,
00:12:32
Speaker
Yeah, I'm curious. Obed seems like a guy you would like, but you know. Yeah. So it goes. Yeah. This one's from Chris S. He says, it seems like successful MLS teams fall into one of two categories. Constant roster turnover, but not as many club legends, i.e. LAFC, or a consistent core roster that has their club legends maybe overstay their usefulness, i.e. the sounders. Is this oversimplifying things, and do you have a preference one way or the other?
MLS Team Strategies
00:13:00
Speaker
Um, I think it is oversimplifying things a bit, but I think, uh, I don't think it's a bad question at all. Like, I think that that's a generally fair characterization and I don't know that one is better than the other. Um, I think the LAFC LAFC thing has kind of.
00:13:22
Speaker
caused a little bit of brain worms and I'm just as guilty as as anybody else to the sense where they're being held up as this paragon of every like this is how you do everything. Everything that LAFC is doing is what the sounders should be doing. Right. And like LAFC and the sounders are not that far apart in the table.
00:13:39
Speaker
Um, you know, the Sounders have beaten LAFC in big games in the past. Yes. Like LAFC is very much on top in this rivalry right now. I don't think anybody is questioning that. I think that's a very obvious, but LAFC has struggled. Like they've missed the playoffs, you know, they they've lost a lot of cup finals. Their approach has its own kinds of risks. Um, and so I don't think that their way of doing things is inherently better.
00:14:09
Speaker
Um, I think that the sounders less than wanting to trust their players and keep a core together and, and put an emphasis on having players connected to the club. I don't think that's the problem as much as they are really conservative with how they spend money. And I think that's more the issue where the stuff starts to pick up a problem. Um,
00:14:34
Speaker
where they're making decisions based on frankly, pretty small amounts of money um that they maybe shouldn't be making. Yeah. and yeah and And so I don't think that that's their desire to you know have these have like,
00:14:54
Speaker
players be here for a long time necessarily. I think it's just a desire to not spend money that they don't absolutely have to spend. Uh, that that's really causing the problem. But there is obviously a downside to, you know, putting faith in older players. And and we've kind of seen that over the last two years, but, um, there's also a downside to lots of turnover. You can just get a group that doesn't work together well and, and have a bad couple seasons and have to start over from scratch.
00:15:22
Speaker
But yeah, I think there's a happy medium to strike between those two things. yeah it's not And it's not unfair to say which of these two extremes do you prefer. And I guess if I have to choose between those two extremes, I i guess maybe maybe I would prefer the sounder's end, which is you do grow an affinity for players, but it also feels like there's a little bit of a false choice here because You can have a sense of place and you can have a sense of club and you can do all these things. You can keep your Jordan Morris's and your Christian rolled ons and your stuff fries. But it doesn't mean you, you can't buy out Niko Ledero. It doesn't mean you can't buy out Raul Reed is it doesn't mean you can't buy out Joe Paulo. Uh, if that's what you want to do, like, I think one of the things that the sounders, ah to your point, what's holding the sounders back is not a desire to have players around for a long time. It's an unwillingness to sort of.
00:16:17
Speaker
spend money to just spend more money, right? it did look And and just not like you said, to not spend money you don't have to spend. And I think that's probably the bigger problem.
00:16:28
Speaker
And, you know, if the Sounders were willing to move on from roll really ideas this last summer, they probably could have brought in a new DP and we'd be having very different conversations about this team. And it wouldn't at the end of the day, wouldn't have really cost that much more money. So I don't know. I, I, I would hope that something changes as far as this goes, because they do need to be more comfortable with roster turn than they have been. But I don't also think they need to go to the point where they are making you know, where they're letting go of players that they could and maybe should hold onto at the same time. Yeah. I will, I will say that I think that the idea that the sounders never turn the roster over is, um, I think that's a recent phenomenon. and Like it is, it feels like it's something that's happened like really post COVID.
00:17:19
Speaker
Right.
Carlos Vela's Return to LAFC
00:17:20
Speaker
there There was a lot of consistency, obviously, from 2016 through to the last year or two. ah But there was also a lot of turnover. I mean, I was involved with Alonzo left the team. they went They've gone through a lot of center backs. They've had a lot of supporting players. Gustav Svensson has come and gone. I mean, important players that they have been willing to move on and and move out. um So I do think it's a more recent thing.
00:17:44
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, after 2016, I think they had they got rid of 11 players or something. Yeah. Yeah. But anyway, uh, next one is from Wertner, which is very fun to say. How does LFC keep getting away with it ah while adding the Vella as the window closes? You know, the Vella thing is an interesting it's I don't know if this is if you if you did this on purpose, but if you did, good job, because it does dovetail very nicely with the point that Chris was making in the previous question, which is the Vella thing does strike me as sort of them not making a soccer decision, but making a decision that was really born from some sense of nostalgia or wanting to have that sense of place that LAFC hasn't really had. I mean, Carlos Vella hasn't played in nine months. And if he comes in and scores even one important goal for them, I will happily admit that
00:18:38
Speaker
i was I underestimated the signing. But from a dis from where it it looks right now, i would I wouldn't be surprised if he barely plays. Again, he has not played for nine months. I don't know how long it's going to take him to even get into playing shape ah like from a very practical point of view. i don't I would be a little surprised if he starts any games, like literally any games.
00:19:03
Speaker
ah So i I don't know that that was a great move for them. We'll see. ah and But I don't know how they find them. I don't i don't know how. Well, I shouldn't say that. i I suspect the main reason they're able to have this sort of roster flexibility is because of their roster turn, because they've been able to stockpile general allocation money through various trades and and transfers. And so they probably have a little bit more wiggle room than a team like the centers who, I think that's really where they get hurt more is that they they just don't have the flexibility because all their money is wrapped up in there in their current roster. They're constantly spending at what their cap number allows. Whereas LAFC seems to build in a little bit more wiggle room because they have
00:19:55
Speaker
more ability to do that, but they also, then at the, you know, and this is also a team that will play with short rosters. And that maybe gets to the, how do you get away with it thing? Like ah earlier this year, like they only had 20, like when the Sounders played them in the season opener, I think they only had like 21 players under contract, which is kind of crazy, but it's working for them, I guess.
00:20:18
Speaker
Yeah, i I mean, even Carlos Vela has said, I don't even know how much I'm going to play. Like in the in the press conference where he resigned, he said, ah if it's one, two, three games, I don't know how my body rule will respond. That doesn't sound like a guy who is planning on being an impact player. Like, I think this is like a glorified version of the Sounders signing Ozzie Alonzo to a deal at the start of this year. I mean, it would be very funny if he play if he signs, plays one or two games, and then they don't pick up his... because i think yeah I think the option may be... He does have an option. Yeah. For the all of 2025? For all of 2025. Yeah. I mean, that would be kind of hilarious if they they didn't pick up his option in 2025 and he just... It's like, what do we do this? Why did we do this?
00:21:05
Speaker
Yeah, i'm I'm curious how much he's even hitting the cap at. It can't be that much. um Yeah, I saw someone saying like he's not going to be ap a DP. and I'm like, was that a thing? absolutely Yeah, I ah i mean, i I think he he was not good last year. um He's he's.
00:21:27
Speaker
I don't know. I I hope we're right, obviously. I mean, for all the all the shit we're talking, he's going to knock us out of the playoffs, but um yeah, this isn't a signing I'm jealous of. And it's one that I think of all the signings that they have made, it's one that doesn't trouble me too much because I can't imagine he's hitting the cap at that much. And like you said, they they generate a lot of allocation money.
00:21:52
Speaker
Yeah. All right. Well, uh, this one's from, are we going to go maxi or just max? I think maxi. That's how I was leaning. Okay. How much of Pedro de la Vega's minutes restriction is fitness versus performance feeling more like the latter these days? Um, I mean, this is one that you probably have more actual insight than I do, but just from my.
00:22:16
Speaker
perception of it. Uh, I think it's performance. Um, I mean, obviously they're going to be careful with him and they want to bring him along slowly.
Pedro de la Vega's Performance Debate
00:22:25
Speaker
I'm still very high on Pedro de la Vega. And I think that you can see the glimpses of the kind of player he can be. I think he's just getting used to MLS getting used to his teammates. Um, and he probably is playing a little tentatively as well, whether he knows it or not.
00:22:42
Speaker
Um, but he's not playing great soccer. I think it's pretty fair to say. I'd say it's very fair to say, uh, you know, my and initial inclination was to say it was fitness, but Isaiah give it more thought. And I listened to your answer, which I think was maybe more thoughtful than my initial reaction was. Cause I think I've just sort of accepted that it's fitness related. And I do think there's an element of fitness to it, but If you pull it back, I don't know that in any of those games, he really justified being on the field. He didn't play well enough to justify being on the field more than he was.
00:23:24
Speaker
yeah So, you know, like you go back to the San Jose game and I don't think he was bad, but I also felt like bringing on Georgie at, you know, minute 63 or whatever, which I think was his longest outing since he's been in Seattle.
00:23:44
Speaker
Hard to argue with it just from a tactical perspective. and And so it might be, it probably is a little bit of both and in part because I don't think he's 90 minutes fit, but he's also just not playing, like ah he's he's not performing like a player who needs to be on the field 90 minutes. So it's it's probably a little bit of both. ah i don't think Like I said, I don't think he's 90 minutes fit, but I also don't think he's doing enough to justify being on the field more than he has been.
00:24:12
Speaker
we We've definitely had games in the past where guys were coming back from injury where, you know, Schmetzer said, yeah, I was only supposed to play him 60 minutes, but he was just playing so well. I had to give him 75. Right. And he just Pedro just hasn't pushed that. and And I don't think he's been bad in any game this year. And I think in every game, he's given me one or two at least one or two moments of saying that's why they signed him, right but he hasn't just been good consistently, you know? Yeah, yeah. The next one is from The List. Will we see Raoul or Chu on the pitch again this season? And is there a reason that Raoul has been on the bench the last two games and not seen the pitch?
00:24:50
Speaker
Well, I'll take the second part of this question first. I think the reason he hasn't played the last two games is that the Sounders haven't really been in a position where they were chasing a goal. And I, but I do think that sort of tells us a lot about the way Brian sees Raul right now, which is he's only useful as a player who is like a desperate decision. So he played against Portland because the Sounders were trailing.
00:25:18
Speaker
I think he came on the pitch right when they were trailing. He would probably bring them in into to tie games, but he's he's not going to bring them on, you know, like you could argue, Oh, well, they needed a goal against San Jose and that's didn't getting, not getting one is what cost them. And that's a fair statement, but what they really, but they needed someone that was going to also keep to play some defense. Like they couldn't just let, they couldn't let San Jose just attack, attack, attack. Yeah.
00:25:47
Speaker
And he wasn't like he wasn't going to help them defensively. I think we can probably safely say that. So I do think Raul probably will play if for no other reason than I think there's going to be situations where they are going to want him on the field to chase a goal. I don't know if Chu will play. like He's hurt right now. He's not doing a lot to get on the field. It does seem like Minungu is taking the minutes that werere ah that would otherwise be going to Chu.
00:26:14
Speaker
Reed Baker Whiting is getting a lot of minutes ah at left mid. You know you got Pedro de la Vega. You've got Paul Rothrock. He might be fifth or sixth on the depth chart when it comes to wide players. he really only play They only use him on the left, although he he probably can play on the right. so I don't know. I think we'll probably see Raul. I don't i honestly don't know if we'll see two again.
00:26:40
Speaker
Yeah, none of those guys that you list as being out of him on the depth chart, I wouldn't give him minutes above any of those guys. and it's not and and And not that any of them are playing bad, but none of them are playing out of their minds either. yeah Which also speaks to how Chu has just not not really done enough with the opportunities he's had. I think too, there's something to be said for the idea of like, look Leotu is probably not going to be here next year. ah yeah I would really be surprised if Leotu is here next year. I would too. So don't you know, don't you want to see what you have in Rothrock? I mean, we kind of know what we have in Rothrock, but couldn't hurt to find out even more or in Georgie and Reed Baker Whiting playing, you know, as a winger. um That's all good information to have.
00:27:26
Speaker
And if Chew is clearly better than any of those guys, that's more important consideration at this stage of the season, but he's not. So. Right. Thank you for listening to the Sound Rithart podcast network, which now includes no sunny at this lobbing scorchers and the cooler guild.
00:27:42
Speaker
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00:28:00
Speaker
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00:28:24
Speaker
Alright, this is from Chad. The product on the field has improved, but the in-stadium experience is still lagging behind. What do the sounders need to do to re-energize the matchday experience? yeah I think, um you know, some of the stuff we've talked about in the past is just making the games feel a little more special.
00:28:45
Speaker
starting up some of the pregame festivities, stuff like that. But I think ultimately the answer to this is the sounders have to have more agency in controlling the venue. And whether that is Lumen actually working with them as partners rather than treating them as you an annoyance that's paying them millions of dollars every year to to have events there. ah Or whether it's having their own stadium, which especially if it's in Renton, it's not really the outcome that I want. But I think that's the answer. Like if that's what you want is for the in-game experience to be better, the Sounders have to have some control of the venue. And I think that there is a reality in which they can have that at Lumen, but I don't think this is a Sounders problem. ah the The more I think about this and and just kind of talk to people about it, the more I think that the primary problem
00:29:42
Speaker
is Lumen just not really caring too much about about the Sounders product or non you know and ah nonon-field product. ah There are things I think the Sounders could do to get things a bit re-energized, but ultimately, I just think being ah ah somewhat of an afterthought in your own home stadium is a really but big problem to overcome. it It is a big problem, but I think the the The part of that that makes it unsatisfying is that best case scenario, the sounders are building or like their lease on Lumen isn't up until 2032. That's a long time from now from a yeah
00:30:23
Speaker
and is yeah like and in glacial periods it's not not a long time right like in the history of the sounders that doesn't feel like a long time but it's a really long time for anyone who's buying tickets to go see them right now right and I think the sounders, speaking of age, I think the sounders have to just, they have to make some decisions about what they want the game day experience to be. You know, I i was out i was in the i was in the press box, but I think I was struck by how dead it felt on when you know last Wednesday when they were playing the earthquakes. And granted, it was sort of a perfect storm of problems. the The Mariners were playing the Yankees of all teams across the street right around the same time. It was a weekday. It was an opponent that teams that fans aren't super excited about. I get it. There was a million reasons not to want to go to the game.
00:31:21
Speaker
But there was it just the the stadium look was was relatively empty and I realized this is a this is not a sounder-specific problem. Teams all over the league struggle with midweek attendance. That is a given. But it used to not be a problem for the sounders. you know It wasn't that long ago where They would be playing an FC Dallas on a Wednesday and 36,500 people would pretty much show up. Maybe not every, I mean, that was the announced attendance, something like that. But a lot of those people, like the show rate was a lot better not that long ago, certainly pre-COVID.
00:31:55
Speaker
And I think the centers do need to take some ownership of turning that around. And, you know, my understanding is for all the, the hemming and hawing and frustration people have expressed, which is I think legit, there's still going to be a renewal rate on season tickets. That's probably close to 90%, maybe even above 90%, which isn't great, but also is not the disaster that would really cause people at long acres to be freaking out.
Sounders' In-Stadium Experience
00:32:25
Speaker
But I do hope the sounders see, and I know the sounders are seeing what we are all seeing, which is the game day experience is not what it used to be. And I would hope that they are devising plans to turn that around. i don't And I don't know if there is an easy answer other than maybe play more exciting soccer and make ah make the product on the field more exciting than it's been for all the success the sounders have had. They aren't exactly, you know,
00:32:52
Speaker
they've They've played a lot of boring games at home, although I do think it's been better lately. ah But I do think that like the transfer the whole transfer strategy does play into the excitement around the team way more than I think ownership at least thanks and it's you know it's it's tough to get excited about the same cast of characters every season you know and i think that's that's probably that might be the the simplest solution although it's not the
00:33:27
Speaker
the world. but i saw a ah post on reddit about the gift that earthquakes fans got for their 50th anniversary and there was a lot of people complaining about it so I don't want to make it sound like this would have been a home run but they gave like a time capsule kind of thing to all their fans for the 50th anniversary and it had like a replica of the very first ticket to ah the when the earthquakes of course or yeah it was like a replica ticket and there was a whole bunch of like random items that were sort of like nostalgia laced items and it struck me that as much as
00:34:09
Speaker
fans and San Jose did not seem to be loving that as a ah season ticket gift. It was still a lot better than what Sunder's season ticket holders got, which was, you know, like we've gone through this, ah basically a scarf or a pennant or a hat. And, and you know, the Sunder's just put out their their season ticket. They had a ah similar process for next year where you got to pick an item and it's like it's like stuff that you order out of ah out of like, like a corporate catalog and you just put your logo on it. And I just can't help but think this, like I get it on part of me is like at the same time, I went to long acres the other last week, and they were
00:34:54
Speaker
destroy, they were literally destroying boxes, boxes, like hundreds, if not thousands of season ticket packages from two years ago. That was the Bruce Lee scarf with like the pin. And because they, they these were, they just found these, this these, these pallets of, of unused season ticket packages that they're now getting rid of.
00:35:16
Speaker
And it it did. And I have to assume that this played into their whole like we have there's so much waste here. Why are like we're just blushing money down the toilet and I get it like there's got to be some happy medium between these things. But ah I don't know. I hope that they are getting creative and I'm not seeing it right now. I don't want to go on. ah I feel like we've gone on this.
00:35:41
Speaker
this diatribe a little bit several times in the last few months, but anyway. and i mean i yeah i I think that you're ultimately right. like its yeah As much as I do think they're really shoveling uphill with the the stadium situation, there are things that they could do ah to to improve things.
00:36:01
Speaker
and It doesn't feel like they're doing them. And I do think that the, it would be one thing to have. Almost no roster turnover. If you had won the MLS cup last year, and i goes run that the supporter shield, sure. But that obviously is not the case. And I think that pretty good with the same guys for like pretty good is always in, in, in isolation and a vacuum is, is fine. You know, pretty good finished second.
00:36:33
Speaker
want a couple playoff games. But doing that year after year after year with mostly the same guys is how how can you expect people to be excited about that? Right. All right. This next one's from Andrew and it's it's something we've kind of touched on, but I'll go ahead and ask it anyway, because it's ah it's a little different.
00:36:50
Speaker
ah Last year it was Nico and Raoul. This year it's Raoul and JP. Maybe next year it'll be JP and Steph or EMR or maybe even Christian. Is this team ever going to move on from a guy a year early again instead of doing it a year or two late? I appreciate wanting to do right by club legends, but it sure sucks the cost is wasting the best year of Jordan's career.
00:37:09
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, I don't think we've quite wasted the last year of jordan the best year of Jordan's career yet. But I yeah understand the point that this person is making, which is that there are several players on this team who would be really spectacular supporting cast or maybe even spectacular second or third best players on the team. But everyone is sort of knocked up a notch because they don't have one superstar.
00:37:36
Speaker
and they don't have or they don't have another guy that is at, you know, Albert Rusnak and Jordan Morris are about as good of a one-two punch as you're going to get in this league. The problem is that the third best scorer is like Paul Rothrock. I don't know if that's literally who it is, but it might be like Jackson Reagan or, you know, it's someone who you're not expecting, like who is a, there's a big drop from the top two to the, to the third one. And that's really what the problem is.
00:38:08
Speaker
that I'm getting away from the question. i I would hope so, I guess is the answer. I would hope that the Sounders are willing to get rid of a player a year too early. I think Jau Paulo, that's a big one. I love Jau Paulo. i I think when he is at it on his game, he is so good. i I'm getting to the point where I don't know if they can bring him back at almost any price at this point. I mean, there's always a price where you're willing to bring a player like that back.
00:38:37
Speaker
But I had been saying like, oh, if he's on 500, then it's worth bringing him back. And I guess at 500, it probably is worth bringing him back.
João Paulo's Future with the Sounders
00:38:45
Speaker
But I don't think you can give him TAM wages. um I don't think you can depend on him for anything other than being a rotational player. Yeah. Yeah. I don't care what he's, he could be making a veteran minimum if the expectation is he's a starter. That's a big problem. Right. Exactly. Exactly. And I think, you know, I've heard this posited as a, as a way to bring a gel Paulo type player back, you bring him back and you say, look, you're going to, you're going to start all the big games, but you are going to sit every Wednesday or whatever. And it's like, I'm sorry, but that's not actually a viable plan. You can't, you can't, Tell a player you're going to start all our biggest games, but then you're not going to play in a bunch of them either. No. The thing is that if you're not playing him on a regular basis, you should not be relying on him to start your biggest games either. Yeah. And Joao Paulo this year went from earlier in the year being consistently one of the Sounders best players to being not the guy he was, but still a pretty solid player to a guy that I don't want to see in the lineup. Why do we think he's going to be capable of
00:39:47
Speaker
bouncing back next year, even if it's in a much more limited role. Yeah, I mean, we're you know, they're they're saying that they think he'll be back for the their hope. I'm sorry. They hope he'll be back for the Rapids game. And. I yeah, I mean, sure, I don't I would hope he's not going to start in that game. I'll be curious to see what we can what the sounders can get out of him for the last, you know, that that lead if he doesn't play in the Rapids game, then there's only two games left after that.
00:40:16
Speaker
And I don't, you know, if, if you're playing well, I don't see how you justify starting him. If like, if Christian Roldan continues to look good in his role, I feel like you're, you're sort of forcing a ah round peg into a square hole or whatever the, I guess I got that backwards, but anyway. I think they both work. Yeah. Uh, all right. Speaking of square pegs and round holes squared.
00:40:42
Speaker
I like it. I wonder if that was why why anyway, I knew who is a asked is new who is strong aggressive defender who is rarely taken off the ball. Would you ever consider playing him at the six? God, no. Just that absolutely not. I am winsome. I think that would be a disaster. Yeah. yeah I mean, he's I. I will admit I had the same reaction when I first thought of him playing center back.
00:41:08
Speaker
Yeah, but I hadn't really considered him playing as a. Out in like a third center back. And so he he's been a better center back than I know I don't I don't want to see any part of new who as a defensive midfielder in part because I mean, I guess the argument would be that they don't have a true six on the roster.
00:41:28
Speaker
A 6 has to be able to pass the ball. I don't like this idea at all. I'm sorry, Squared. and let's Let's be fair to Squared. i did there There was some context here where he did say that he didn't necessarily think this was a good idea. He was just curious. Oh, okay. Well, i i i don't i I don't want to see it. No.
00:41:50
Speaker
You know, if we bring him to another team, I would like to see it. I you know, it is funny. ah Someone recently shared the lineup from the infamous Shelby Joseph at the number nine yeah game. I had forgotten that that was a four, four, two diamond. So he was actually one of two forwards, which honestly, in context, makes it seem way less ridiculous. Like it wasn't. Yeah, sorry. Like he was starting with Eddie Johnson.
00:42:19
Speaker
Yeah, he wasn't really starting it forward. Right. Like it was much less of a ridiculous thing than it became. It didn't turn out way more ridiculous than that. Yeah, it does. I guess that's why I brought it up. Yeah. Yeah. The shawlry thing is.
00:42:37
Speaker
has always kind of bugged me. Cause it's like, it's a funny joke to say, Oh, Ziggy started Showery Striker in the playoffs, but he really didn't. He also, and ah the other thing is that he didn't have a lot of options. Like Oba played in that game, but he really wasn't fit. Right. Yeah. And I remember a lot of people being like, well, we needed goals. So he should have started and played 20 minutes. And it's like, well, no, you can't, you can't do that. Can't do that. Yeah, that's right. I forgot the centers were also changed. They were down, I guess they were down to one, right?
00:43:08
Speaker
i think I think they lost 1-0 in the first leg at home. Oh, maybe that's right. And app and then they almost came back and won it in the end. so anyway Anyway, this one's from Ken W. What are the real chances Brian and k Craig are both gone during the offseason?
Future of Sounders' Management
00:43:23
Speaker
The real chances?
00:43:26
Speaker
Uh, I mean, I, I don't think it's an outrageous,
00:43:33
Speaker
Brian is going to be out of contract. So I think that creates some question as to whether or not he'll be back as the coach. I would be pretty surprised if he's not back with the organization in some capacity, especially if the center's finished kind of like, I don't, I don't think this is going to be a situation where he's like essentially fired. Like, yeah.
00:43:55
Speaker
He could get moved into another part of the organization, but I think there's definitely a possibility he's not the head coach next year. Craig? I'd be, I don't know. I don't, I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. Uh, it depends on what else is out there. I suppose both for him. Like if someone comes to him and says, we would really like to hire you. I don't know that the centers would stand in his way.
00:44:22
Speaker
Yeah, I have a hard time imagining that he would be fired. But stranger things have happened, but that like the sounders have never fired a GM. Yeah, firing Craig after the season would be.
00:44:41
Speaker
some real scumbag behavior from ownership. I suppose you could or I suppose there's a scenario where let's just say he and Adrian don't see eye to eye at all and they don't feel like they can work together. Sure. Sure. But to fire him for like cause over not making moves that he didn't have the budget to make would feel really crappy. Yeah.
00:45:07
Speaker
I, uh, to me, and this isn't based on anything again, this is just, you know, my head cannon. Uh, I think the most realistic scenario where Craig has gone is he says, I can't do this anymore. I don't know my transfer budget is right. i'm I'm out. Right. That seems a lot more plausible than, than any other outcome where he gets fired. But i I doubt that that happens very much. Um, the, the Brian one is more interesting to me. Um, I don't know.
00:45:38
Speaker
I think it would be a bummer. I mean, we don't know how this season has has ended yet, but if it ends the way I think most people are expecting it to end, it would be a bummer of a way for him to go out. But, you know, he's not. It's not like Brian is like super old or anything, but he's not getting any younger and he's the oldest coach in MLS. Yeah. um It feels somewhat similar, I guess, to the Pete Carroll situation that the Seahawks just went through, you know, where Um, maybe it's just a natural time for it to end. Um, I can certainly see an argument that, you know, they're going to be making a lot of changes and a lot of signings and maybe it just makes sense to have a fresh start. I can also see an argument that Brian had a lot of success without being given a lot to work with. And he deserves an opportunity to have one last ride with, you know, a stronger roster. Um,
00:46:32
Speaker
I don't think Brian gets nearly enough credit for for the way he's handled the last couple of seasons with you know the the issues that the the team has had with key players aging out and you know having to manage really difficult situations and personalities without the locker room blowing up. ah That's something Siggy wasn't able to do. you know yeah um And so I think it's unfortunate that he doesn't get credit for that. and And I would love for him to get another crack at it with elite options at at dp at the DP spots. But I can also see if he's just ready to do something else. you know Yeah. I think the other thing that complicates it is that
00:47:11
Speaker
you're If you're bringing him back, you're probably having to give him a three-year contract. right and it And I think you could talk yourself into, look, he deserves the coach at the club World Cup. He deserves a run with a more complete roster. These are all fair and accurate, understandable things to say, but ah it gets a little harder to project it out beyond next year.
00:47:37
Speaker
And it's in it's if you're if you're thinking maybe you're going through a rebuilding phase, which ah maybe the centers aren't, maybe they don't see them as ah them don't see themselves that way. But is he the is he the coach that you want doing it? Or is he someone that might be more useful elsewhere in the organization?
00:47:55
Speaker
I mean, it'll be interesting. I think that's, that's definitely one to watch this off season. And I don't have a good sense of where it's going. Uh, I mean, I, I can, I can guess, but I'm, I don't know that anyone outside of Adrian's head, really Adrian and Brian are essentially going to make this decision. It is us almost so exclusively a decision between those two people. I don't know that Craig has almost any say at all over who the head coach is. Yeah.
00:48:24
Speaker
Now, I suppose there's another scenario where another person comes in to sort of assume the president of soccer title, and sort of sits above Craig, that maybe changes all the this entire equation.
00:48:41
Speaker
But I don't, I, I don't know. I mean, I think that it's a, fact it is a genuinely fascinating off season for a lot of reasons, not just because of the player personnel, but because of all this other stuff too. And hopefully at some point I'll have a better handle on what might be happening. Yeah. This really feels like the most important off season since at the very least 2013. Yeah. Maybe ever.
00:49:06
Speaker
All right, this is from Colin. What's a higher priority for this front office this season? The number nine or a number six or something else. Any chance where you re-sign JP or is he pretty much gone? Yeah, we covered the JP thing. I think he's most likely gone. And if he's back, I would really hope it's in with the expectation that he's going to be a ah bench option. ah My impression is definitely that the sounders see a six as a priority, although with the way Christian has played over the last few games, maybe that's, he's, that's less of a priority. Uh, I definitely think that they see an attacking player as their top priority. Uh, I think that has, they've seen a nine as being the top priority. I think everybody that listens to the show knows that I don't agree with that, um, that I think they should be looking for, for a winger, uh, that, you know, can like a Denny Moana type player.
00:50:00
Speaker
Uh, but that doesn't mean that's what the front office thinks. So unless they've changed, I think that's probably what they're going to be targeting. Um, but it's interesting because they have, they have money and cap space and resources. Ostensibly to assign a couple of players, at least a couple big impact players. yeah And obviously one of them is an attacker. That's the most obvious thing in the world. Right. I think getting a DP attacker, no matter where they play across the frontline.
00:50:30
Speaker
is the highest priority for this team. I don't know what the next highest priority is, and I think it might just come down to who was the best player we can get. Yeah, and I think it might also do have to do with what else happens. like i don't I don't know. I think the Sounders are going into this offseason more open-minded about everyone on the roster than they probably have been before. So I think there are a lot of players who they would explore moves for, and that could impact what their next signing, like what they see as their second most important signing. Right. Yeah. Yeah. It'll be a very, very interesting offseason. It's exciting and also a little bit terrifying. Yeah. um Because if all the worst case scenarios about what people
00:51:18
Speaker
I think our doom casting come to fruition. It'll be pretty apparent pretty quickly and it's going to be really unpleasant.
00:51:26
Speaker
All right, next one's from Rylo2. Also, some some ground we've covered, but an additional wrinkle, so I think it's worth asking. With a speculative talk around Pineda being a potential Schmetzer replacement if he decides to call it quits, do you think Schmetzer could thrive thrive in a front office role serving as a voice between Weibel and Adrian, or a role like that? Also, have you seen anything lately that might suggest Brian has a desire to either move into a front office role or continue coaching?
00:51:52
Speaker
Well, today, as it as coincidence would have it, Nico Moreno asked Brian about his coaching future and he he basically was didn't even entertain the question, which to me suggests he he is not ready. Like if he was mentally ready to move into the front office, I feel like he might be giving those vibes off a little bit more.
00:52:18
Speaker
Or maybe he's just playing it close to the chest. Maybe he doesn't want to get ahead of himself. I don't know. But I would be surprised if he sort of took on that president of soccer role. I could see him being more of like a scout type of role where they send him around the world to go look at players and and he kind of tries to find players that fit the sounder's way.
00:52:40
Speaker
ah If, if he were to move on, that's, and, and I do think Gonzo Pineda is probably the most obvious replacement candidate, especially if he's available. He's currently available. Uh, of course that could change at any time. He he could get another job. Uh, but yeah, I don't, I don't have a good sense of what Brian wants. I really don't. Yeah. And I mean, I know previously we talked about Brian being the oldest coach in MLS, but It's not like it's unprecedented for a guy to coach until he was 65, 66 years old, which is right. He would be, I mean, Bruce Arena was 72. Yeah. When he, when he quit as coach of the revs and he only quit his coach of the revs because he ah said some stuff he shouldn't have said, you know, like he's, it's not like he, he wasn't capable of coaching anymore. So, um, yeah, I don't.
00:53:35
Speaker
i I love Brian Schmetzer so much and I want him to keep coaching and having success as long as he wants to, um but I am not his boss. I'm not the one who is responsible for the results of that and would be responsible for making a difficult decision if it came to that, if it if it turned out not to to be the right call to bring him back. so it's ah It's a tough one, but I do think he has a ton of knowledge that would be super valuable in the front office if he wanted to do that or was able to do that. Absolutely. Yeah. All right. This is from Mike Standish. If you had the power to ask Adrian Hannah our one question and get a completely 100% honest answer, what would that question be?
00:54:22
Speaker
ah
00:54:25
Speaker
I think
00:54:29
Speaker
I think it would probably be, um, what, what are your plans in the short term in your role as owner, right? Like something, something like that, right? Like it would be, it's tempting to say, you know, what's, what's the transfer budget, Adrian? But I think just having Adrian, honestly, cause I understand a lot of the reason that Adrian doesn't say more.
00:54:59
Speaker
and gives political answers is because that's the prudent thing for him to do. I don't necessarily blame him for being cagey. I think that it's ah kind of what you would expect. um But I would like to, if he was under some sort of like genie spell and he had to tell me honestly what his plans for the next three to five years were for the club. um I would love to hear that from him. I think it would be illuminating. I think I would probably feel a lot better about things at at the end of it, frankly, but yeah.
00:55:29
Speaker
Well, it's I laugh. i I don't know if that came across, but I laugh because that was almost exactly the question I would have wanted to ask him. Like, what's the plan? What what is the articulate? I would like for him to articulate the vision for where this is all going, because it does feel a little rudderless right now.
00:55:49
Speaker
Like I don't, like it does feel like we're seeing lots of examples of being penny wise and pound foolish and sometimes just straight up foolish about how we are budgeting and spending money. The fact that they just went through a summer transfer window with seemingly no transfer budget is really hard to get my mind around and I just want to understand what what's what is the plan here? ah and and i And I am with you. I would like to think that there's an answer. I'd like to think that that answer would create some buy-in. Yeah.
00:56:33
Speaker
Although i so there's also, I suppose the possibility of the answer is like, Oh, we're just gearing up for a sale or something like that, which would be super unsatisfying and frustrating. And, uh, you know, but it would be really, really, really nice info to have. It would be great info to have. It would retroactively make a lot of things make sense. Yeah, right. So yeah, if Adrian is inclined to answer that question.
00:56:59
Speaker
Yi is welcome to come on the show and ah and share that information. Yeah, we will be summoning a Jin to make sure he is answering it. Right, exactly. Exactly. All right, last one for this week, this month. ah Thanks for for all the great questions, everyone. It's from SounderMonkey. Are we seeing Keith Rock Rock, Roth Rock, or can he get better? You know, I i think he can probably get more productive yeah Like he's, he's reasonably productive right now. I don't think that any, nothing that he's doing is striking me as playing out of his mind. He's, you know, he's, uh, hustling. He's putting himself into good positions, but he's not like hitting 20 yard bangers or, or, uh, you know, doing anything that feels unsustainable. So it, it, cause I feel like peak Rothrock would be implying a certain, he's reached his limit of what he can do. And I don't.
00:57:58
Speaker
I don't think that's necessarily true on a permanent basis. This might be the most productive season he ever has just because I think it's, it's entirely possible. This is the most consistent runout he'll ever get because from presumably they will have more talent on the team in future years. But if he's playing, I suppose if he's playing more, I mean, if he's getting more minutes in future years, it means he's being more productive.
00:58:27
Speaker
Yeah, i I mean, I think it's fair to say that I've been a Rothrock skeptic and I've been shown to be wrong about that, to at least to some degree. um he's he's been I think he is just clearly a better player than I thought he was. And so I don't want to say anything too authoritatively or, you know, definitively, um but i I don't think he's going to up level and become an all-star player. I think that in terms of his skills and and what he can contribute, he's certainly got room for growth. He can get better. um He's 25, so he can he can improve for another couple of years, most likely.
00:59:09
Speaker
um but i don't if he is the reincarnation of Chris Wendelowski, then yes, he will get much better over the next couple of years. Otherwise he's probably only going to improve marginally, but a marginally better Paul Rothrock is a very good MLS player that you really want to have on your team. I mean, that's, if you think of, of a marginally better Paul Rothrock having Harry ships role.
00:59:37
Speaker
from a couple of years ago. I think I think Paul Rothrock is probably a better player right now than Harry Ship was. They're very different players, but I think he's I think there's car they're an interesting similarities, though. And I agree with you. I think he's he's probably more talented than Harry Ship was ah at least by the time he came to the Sounders. Yeah. And, you know, Harry Ship's most productive years are more productive than Paul Rothrock's season has been this year.
01:00:06
Speaker
But yeah, I mean, i I don't know. He's a, he's a, he's a fun player. Uh, it's hard to imagine where the center season would be right now without him yeah emerging. He is, he and Georgie are maybe the ideal guys to have on the bench, I think. and Like they do, they have some similarities, but they're different enough that they can be complimentary and you can, you know, some they're better suited for some situations than the other. Um,
01:00:36
Speaker
But I don't think either of them, you want to be regular starters. and and Yeah. And they they both have great worth at get work ethics. They don't cheat themselves. they you You never really have to question if what you're going to get from them in terms of effort. Those are all things that are super, super important to have, especially you know, on your roster and in training. And, you know, they're they're going to help raise the level every day and in training. They're going to be positive. Like these are great players to have on the team. They're not necessarily players that you want to be automatic starters though, either. And right now they are close to that, which is not ideal probably. It's not, and that's not a knock on them. It's just, it's the reality of the situation.
01:01:26
Speaker
No. All right. Well, ah thanks to everyone for sending in your questions. we We're trying to do these mailbag episodes at least once a month. We try to keep it timely. And again, if you want to get involved in this, join us on Discord. If you want to get on Discord, shoot us an email support at sounderatheart dot.com and we'll get you all set up with that.
01:01:49
Speaker
Also, if you're listening to this and you just wanna join the Sounder at Heart community and and be supportive of what we're doing, our membership start at low is $25 a year or $3 a month. And you'll help keep this thing going. on We have a lot of good stuff coming up. I think this will be an interesting end of the season. Hopefully we'll have some more live events. So yeah, I don't know. Anything else you wanna add, Aaron?
01:02:20
Speaker
I think you covered it, brother. Okay, fair enough. Well, ah thanks for listening. ah Thank you to our sponsors, football wines. Of course, thank you to our subscribers. I am Jeremiah Shan signing off for Aaron Campo and Likit. This is No Study Yetis. Remember, you'll never get alone.
01:03:14
Speaker
on